编者荐语： 展望后市，A股国庆节前延续了较为强势的走势，各大指数均在5日线之上，预计节后仍将持续趋势，需要注意3750-3900之间的区间仍是震荡为主，节后 要重点关注方向选择。板块方面，预计有色金属，固态电池，黄金等潜力较大。 以下文章来源于申万宏源证券上海分公司 ，作者司伟杰 申万宏源证券上海分公司 . 申万宏源证券上海分公司官微，能为您提供账户开立、软件下载、研究所及投顾资讯等综合服务，为您的财富保驾护航。 2025 年国庆假期期间，截止发稿的 1 0 月 7 日收盘，全球主要股指整体呈现上涨趋势：恒生指数涨幅 0 .38% ，恒生科技 1 .30% ，美 股三大指数微涨，韩国股市涨幅 3 . 6 4% ，日本股市表现最强上涨 6 .7% ，亚太市场显示出较强的复苏态势。大宗商品方面 COMEX 黄 金价格站上 4 000 ，涨幅超 3 .45% ，贵金属普涨，反映了避险需求或通胀预期的变化，有色金属同样较强，显示出全球工业需求的回暖 迹象。从期间涨幅来看，预计节后 A 股以平稳向好为主，且黄金、有色金属等板块可能延续强势。 展望后市， A 股国庆节前延续了较为强势的走势，各大指数均在 5 日线之上，预 ...

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index has rebounded 36% since its low in April, raising concerns about a potential market bubble as valuations reach levels comparable to previous "overheated" periods [1] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) has remained below its long-term average, indicating a period of relative calm in the derivatives market, despite rising tensions among institutional investors [1] - The recent increase in the VIX, breaking above 17, signals growing concerns among institutional investors about the sustainability of the AI-driven market rally [1] Group 2 - Stocks benefiting from AI, such as Oracle (ORCL.US) and AMD (AMD.US), have driven the U.S. stock market higher, while consumer stocks and perceived AI "losers" like Salesforce (CRM.US) have seen declines, resulting in a narrow market breadth [2] - Derivatives traders are increasing protective positions ahead of earnings reports from major tech companies, with analysts warning that disappointing results could lead to a lack of fundamental support for the current market rally [2] - A slight reduction in enthusiasm for AI stocks could trigger a potential 5% pullback in the S&P 500 index, according to analysts [2] Group 3 - It is suggested that purchasing insurance on the Nasdaq 100 index may be wiser than on the S&P 500 due to the higher volatility of the Nasdaq [3] - There are numerous exchange-traded funds (ETFs) available for investors who prefer not to trade derivatives directly, which can provide similar protective strategies [3] - Allocating funds for hedging costs is advised, as a strong focus on AI stocks in April has led to underperformance [3]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The overarching theme identified in the report is the increasing expenditure by governments, corporations, and households, which is significantly impacting the financial landscape [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. Technology Stocks - There is a notable surge in capital expenditure related to artificial intelligence, with recent price actions in global memory stocks reflecting this trend [5] 2. Japan - Japan's market has accelerated following the election of Takaichi, with expectations of continued fiscal dominance evident in currency movements and the performance of defense contractors [7] 3. Stores of Value - The report highlights the performance of gold and Bitcoin during the COVID and post-COVID era, with a target price for gold set at $4900 [9] 4. Low Quality - The latest rally in US equities has seen strong performance from lower quality stocks, particularly in high-risk sectors like quantum computing and nuclear energy, with October tracking for significant returns [11] 5. Mergers & Acquisitions - The report notes a continuous stream of M&A activity, suggesting that this trend will persist due to favorable macro conditions [13] 6. Options Market - There is a significant increase in the buying of call options, indicating strong market participation, particularly from household investors [15] 7. Household Balance Sheets - The report includes insights into the asset composition of the top 1% of US households, emphasizing the wealth distribution [17][18]

【导读】 标普500指数、纳指创收盘新高； 美联储公布9月议息会议纪要，未来降息路径现 分歧！ 中国基金报记者 郭玟君 10月8日，美国三大股指多数收涨，标普500指数、纳指创收盘新高，中概股多数上涨。美国 参议院再次否决两党拨款法案，联邦政府继续停摆。 标普500指数、纳指创收盘新高 美国三大股指多数收涨，道指持平，报46601.78点；标普500指数涨0.58%，报6753.72 点；纳指涨1.12%，报23043.38点。其中， 标普500指数、纳指创收盘新高 。 大型科技股多数上涨，万得美国科技七巨头指数上涨0.84%。英伟达涨2.20%，亚马逊涨 1.55%，特斯拉涨1.29%，领涨美国科技七巨头。 | 涨跌 涨跌幅▼ 年初至今 时间 名称 | 代码 | - 现价 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) NVDA 1 189.110 4.070 2.20% | | | | 40.85% 16:00 | | 亚马逊(AMAZON) AMZN 2 225.220 | | | 3.440 1.55% | 2.66% 16:00 | | 特斯拉 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs strategist Peter Oppenheimer believes it is too early to worry about a bubble in U.S. tech stocks, as the record rise in tech stocks is accompanied by strong earnings growth, unlike previous bubble periods driven by speculation [1] - Oppenheimer and his team noted that while tech sector valuations have exceeded normal ranges, they have not yet reached levels consistent with historical bubble periods [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of diversification for investors to mitigate risks associated with narrow market gains and increasing competition in the AI sector [1] Group 2 - Despite optimism from financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Barclays regarding further stock market gains, some market participants are becoming cautious about the returns from large investments in AI [3] - The Nasdaq 100 index, which is tech-heavy, experienced a decline following reports that Oracle's cloud computing business had profit margins below market expectations [3] - There has been a significant increase in mentions of "tech" and "bubble" in news reports over recent weeks, indicating growing concern [3] Group 3 - The Nasdaq 100 index's price-to-earnings ratio is currently 28 times future earnings, compared to its 10-year average of 23 times [5] - Oppenheimer pointed out that a bubble occurs when a company's average value exceeds its expected future cash flows, but noted that the best-performing tech stocks have exceptionally strong balance sheets [5] - The overall rise in valuations in stock and credit markets suggests that the issue is not limited to a tech bubble but is related to low interest rates, high global savings rates, and long-term economic cycles [6] Group 4 - Oppenheimer indicated that while tech stocks may face pressure during economic confidence adjustments, this is unlikely to be solely due to a tech bubble burst [6] - In 2024, Oppenheimer recommends shifting investments from expensive U.S. stocks to underperforming international markets, as the S&P 500 has lagged behind the MSCI global index (excluding U.S. markets) this year [6]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline today, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 0.48%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down by 0.52%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index decreasing by 0.55% [1][2] - Major tech stocks such as SenseTime-W and Baidu Group-SW dropped over 3%, while Kuaishou-W, Kingdee International, and Kingsoft fell more than 2% [1][2] Sector Performance - The gold sector showed strong performance, with several gold stocks reaching new highs. Notably, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining surged over 13%, Shandong Gold increased by over 7%, and Lingbao Gold rose by 3% [1][8] - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector also saw significant gains, highlighted by the impressive debut of Changfeng Pharmaceutical, which closed up 161.02% at HKD 38.5 [1][4] - Nuclear power stocks continued to perform well, with China National Nuclear Corporation rising over 22% and China General Nuclear Power Corporation increasing by over 7% [1][7] Investment Insights - Zheshang International expressed optimism about investment directions in sectors benefiting from policy support, including automotive, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and technology [3] - The pharmaceutical sector's rally may be linked to the announcement of the 2025 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, which recognized contributions to peripheral immune tolerance research [6] - The recent rise in international gold prices, which reached a historic high of USD 4038.25 per ounce, is attributed to favorable inflation data and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Index rose by 1,012 points last week, indicating optimism among overseas investors regarding market prospects. The Hong Kong stock market has outperformed the US market this year, leading foreign capital to gradually absorb Hong Kong stocks to avoid further losses [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The market is expected to remain positive until the end of next year, but with the index having risen for five consecutive months, there may be opportunities for profit-taking as investors reassess their portfolios, making the current risk-reward ratio less attractive [1] - The recent increase in investment recommendations for technology stocks by sell-side analysts suggests promising industry developments, particularly with major US tech companies investing in data centers and power plants, which raises expectations for similar growth opportunities in China, benefiting the entire AI supply chain [1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - New consumer stocks in the Hong Kong and A-share markets have accumulated significant gains, leading to a lack of short-term investment appeal [1] - Investors are encouraged to consider other Asian markets, such as Taiwan, for potential opportunities [1] - The selection of a new Prime Minister in Japan may provide important insights for the Japanese stock market [1] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The anticipated government shutdown in the US is expected to have a limited direct impact on the US stock market, while other data indicates a weakening labor market, suggesting a high likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in October [1]

大型科技股涨跌不一，万得美国科技七巨头指数下跌0.47%。苹果上涨0.35%，微软上涨0.31%，谷歌-C上涨0.01%，英伟达下跌0.67%，亚马 逊下跌1.30%，特斯拉下跌1.42%，META下跌2.27%。 | 2275 | | | --- | --- | | AAPL 已收盘10-03 16:15:00 美东 | | | 258.02 +0.89 +0.35% | 92.75万人加自选 果(3( > | | US 融 空 期 LO | | | 高 259.24 开 254.66 量 4915.56万股 | 总市值 3.83万亿 | | 低 253.95 换 0.33% 额 126.75亿 | 市盈TTM 38.57 | | 期权 成交量140.59万张 未平仓数577.14万张 | | | 盘后 257.90 -0.12 -0.05% 19:59:57 美东时间 | | | 分时 五日 日K 周K 月K 李K 年K 分钟▼ | | | 均线 MA5:255.93 10:255.48 20:245.76 60:229.10 0 前复权 | | | 264.17 259.24 · | | | 1 15 ...

Market Overview - European stock markets mostly rose, with the UK FTSE 100 index up by 0.67% and the French CAC40 index up by 0.31%, while the German DAX index fell by 0.18% [3] - In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 indices both reached historical highs, increasing by 0.51% and 0.01% respectively, while the Nasdaq index decreased by 0.28% [4][2] Technology Sector Performance - Major tech stocks showed mixed results, with the US Tech Giants Index down by 0.47%. Apple rose by 0.35%, Microsoft by 0.31%, and Google-C by 0.01%. In contrast, Nvidia fell by 0.67%, Amazon by 1.30%, Tesla by 1.42%, and META by 2.27% [5][6] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index declined by 1.15%. EPSIUM ENTERPRISE surged nearly 80%, and Yipeng Energy rose nearly 50%. However, companies like Li Auto and Xpeng Motors dropped over 3% [7] Commodity Market - Spot gold prices increased by nearly 1%, with London spot gold closing at $3885.660 per ounce, marking a historical high. COMEX gold futures rose by 1.14% to $3912.1 per ounce [10][12] - International oil prices also saw a slight increase, with ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI crude oil prices rising [11] Economic Data Impact - The US federal government shutdown has halted the release of key economic data, including the monthly employment report, which could affect the Federal Reserve's economic assessments [7][8]

Group 1: Market Overview - The US stock market showed mixed results with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices reaching new highs, while the Nasdaq index declined due to a pullback in technology stocks [2][4] - The Dow Jones index rose by 0.51% to 46,758.28 points, and the S&P 500 index increased by 0.01% to 6,715.79 points, while the Nasdaq index fell by 0.28% to 22,780.51 points [2] Group 2: Technology Sector Performance - Major technology stocks experienced declines, with Nvidia down 0.67%, Amazon down 1.30%, Tesla down 1.42%, and Facebook down 2.27% [5][6] - In contrast, Apple, Microsoft, and Google saw slight increases of 0.35%, 0.31%, and 0.01% respectively [5][6] Group 3: Automotive Sector Developments - Reports indicate that Trump is considering significant tariff reductions for cars assembled in the US, positively impacting automotive stocks [5][7] - Ford shares rose by 3.6%, Toyota increased by 2.10%, and General Motors gained 1.29% following the news [7] Group 4: Chinese Market Trends - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index saw a cumulative increase of 2.58% for the week but fell by 1.15% on Friday, with declines in both automotive and internet sectors [8] - Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers such as NIO, Xpeng, and Li Auto experienced declines of 2.66%, 3.09%, and 3.99% respectively [8][9] Group 5: Corporate Governance Changes - Berkshire Hathaway has officially separated the roles of Chairman and CEO in preparation for Greg Abel to succeed Warren Buffett [16][17] - This change was approved by the board on September 30, marking a significant shift in the company's governance structure [16]