长川科技（300604）(300604.SZ)发布公告，近日，公司收到长川投资出具的《关于股份减持情况的告 知函》，获悉其于2025年8月25日至2025年9月24日通过集中竞价及大宗交易方式合计减持其持有的公司 股份数量比例已达到公司总股本的1%，且本次减持计划已实施完成。截至该告知函出具之日，长川投 资累计减持其所持有的公司股份合计1122万股，占公司总股本的1.7796%。长川投资本次减持股份总数 未超过减持计划约定的股数。 ...

Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell highlighted the current economic challenges, noting short-term inflation risks and employment downturn risks [2] - The U.S. economy is experiencing a slowdown, with GDP growth at approximately 1.5% in the first half of the year, down from 2.5% the previous year [2] - Employment growth is slowing, with the unemployment rate rising slightly, indicating increased risks in the labor market [2] Employment Data - In August, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 22,000, significantly below the expected 75,000, marking a concerning trend in job growth [3] - The unemployment rate in August was 4.3%, unchanged from the previous month, while June's job numbers were revised from an increase of 27,000 to a decrease of 13,000, marking the first negative growth since 2020 [3] - The average monthly job growth over the past three months was only 29,000, indicating a weak labor market [3] Inflation Insights - Powell noted that inflation has decreased from its 2022 highs but remains above the long-term target of 2%, with the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index showing a 2.7% increase over the past year [4] - Core PCE, excluding food and energy, rose by 2.9%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [4] - Changes in trade, immigration, fiscal, and regulatory policies may have significant but uncertain impacts on the economy [4] Monetary Policy Considerations - Powell expressed caution regarding the potential for inflation to rise if monetary policy is loosened too aggressively, suggesting that adjustments may be needed to achieve the 2% inflation target [4] - The current monetary policy stance is described as moderately restrictive, allowing for better adaptation to economic changes [4] Market Valuation Concerns - Powell acknowledged the high valuations in the stock market, with the S&P 500's price-to-sales ratio reaching a historical high of 3.23 and the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio at 35, surpassing levels seen during previous market bubbles [5] - The market's high valuations are seen as misaligned with the future outlook of the U.S. economy, which could impact the overall trajectory of international financial markets [6]

Core Viewpoint - The forum "Phoenix Bay Area Finance Forum 2025" emphasizes the theme of "New Pattern, New Path" and aims to explore new development opportunities amidst global economic changes [1] Group 1: Economic Globalization - Economic globalization is currently facing challenges, entering a phase of adjustment and slow globalization, but tariff barriers cannot halt the overall trend of globalization [3] - The underlying logic of globalization is based on comparative advantages, driven by the pursuit of optimal resource allocation and maximum efficiency. Companies will continue to seek the best production locations and sales markets globally, despite tariff impacts [4] - Technological advancements, including digital technology, the internet, and modern logistics, facilitate unprecedented ease in cross-border production collaboration, information exchange, and trade [4] - Tariff barriers may not only fail to stop globalization but could also catalyze its evolution into new models. Modern supply chains increasingly emphasize risk resilience alongside cost and efficiency [4] - The uncertainty of tariff policies has accelerated regional economic cooperation among ASEAN and BRICS countries as a risk mitigation strategy [4] - Despite the shocks and uncertainties brought by tariff barriers, the strong internal dynamics and market laws of economic globalization will continue to drive its forward momentum [4]

美国前经济委主任加里·科恩近日发出警示，认为当前实施的关税政策可能通过推高企业经营成本，对就业市场产生负面影响。他指出，企业面临投入成本 上升的压力时，可能会通过调整劳动力配置来维持利润空间。 科恩在近期一次访谈中分析道，当企业面临关税带来的成本上升，同时又难以将这部分成本完全转嫁给消费者时，管理层往往会寻求其他可控途径来保持盈 利能力。其中，劳动力成本成为最直接的可调控因素之一。这种调整可能表现为招聘放缓、岗位优化或是自然减员后不再补充人手。 这一观点与当前行政部门的表态形成对比。白宫方面此前曾表示，其经济政策吸引了大量投资并创造了就业机会。官方声明强调，通过综合运用税收、监管 和能源政策等多方面措施，旨在降低整体营商成本，重振经济活力。 美联储近期的政策调整也反映出对经济形势的关注。美联储在上周宣布下调基准利率，试图为经济提供支撑。鲍威尔此前曾提及，虽然整体失业率仍处于低 位，但求职难度确实有所增加，特别是对于刚刚进入劳动力市场的年轻群体而言。 科恩回顾了疫情后劳动力市场的演变过程。他表示，在经济复苏阶段，企业曾出于对人才短缺的担忧而大量储备人力资源。但随着经济环境变化，企业的重 点已转向成本管控。这种转 ...

鲍威尔的最新表态重创美股。 北京时间9月24日凌晨，美联储主席鲍威尔在公开演讲中表示，在上周降息后，美联储的政策立场仍然略有限制。美联储的政策将根据 未来数据、不断变化的前景和风险平衡来确定适当的立场。在问答环节，他警告称，从许多指标看，目前美股的估值相当高。 目前，市场预期美联储年内仍将有2次降息。据CME"美联储观察"：美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为7%，降息25个基点的概率为 93%。美联储12月维持利率不变概率为1.3%，累计降息25个基点的概率为22.5%，累计降息50个基点的概率为76.2%。 鲍威尔发表讲话后，美股三大指数全线跳水，纳指一度大跌超1%，美股大型科技股集体重挫，甲骨文大跌超4%，英伟达跌近3%。有 分析指出，投资者正在重新审视英伟达与OpenAI之间的交易，认为其与互联网泡沫时期的交易类似。 鲍威尔重磅发声 北京时间9月24日凌晨，鲍威尔在罗德岛州普罗维登斯商会发表经济前景演讲，他表示，当前正面临通胀上行和就业下行的两面风险， 这是一个有挑战的局面。假如降息幅度过大或速度过快，可能无法有效控制高通胀、让通胀持续高于美联储2%的目标，而假如货币紧 缩维持太久，则可能无谓地拖累劳动力 ...

鲍威尔发表讲话后，美股三大指数全线跳水，纳指一度大跌超1%，美股大型科技股集体重挫，甲骨文 大跌超4%，英伟达跌近3%。有分析指出，投资者正在重新审视英伟达与OpenAI之间的交易，认为其与 互联网泡沫时期的交易类似。 鲍威尔重磅发声 北京时间9月24日凌晨，鲍威尔在罗德岛州普罗维登斯商会发表经济前景演讲，他表示，当前正面临通 胀上行和就业下行的两面风险，这是一个有挑战的局面。假如降息幅度过大或速度过快，可能无法有效 控制高通胀、让通胀持续高于美联储2%的目标，而假如货币紧缩维持太久，则可能无谓地拖累劳动力 市场。 这是美联储上周降息后鲍威尔的首次公开讲话，据美联储官网发布的讲话稿，鲍威尔表示，总体而言， 受关税消息影响，今年通胀预期的短期指标有所上升。然而，在未来一年左右的时间里，大多数长期预 期指标仍与美联储2%的通胀目标一致。 鲍威尔指出，贸易、移民、财政和监管政策的重大变化对整体经济的影响仍有待观察。一个合理的基本 情况是，关税政策对通胀的影响或将相对较短，价格水平变化或将是一次性的。 （原标题：凌晨全线跳水！鲍威尔重磅发声：目前美股的估值相当高！） 鲍威尔的最新表态重创美股。 北京时间9月24日凌晨 ...

鲍威尔的最新表态重创美股。 北京时间9月24日凌晨，美联储主席鲍威尔在公开演讲中表示，在上周降息后，美联储的政策立场仍然略有限制。美联储的政策将根据未来数据、不 断变化的前景和风险平衡来确定适当的立场。在问答环节，他警告称，从许多指标看，目前美股的估值相当高。 鲍威尔发表讲话后，美股三大指数全线跳水，纳指一度大跌超1%，美股大型科技股集体重挫，甲骨文大跌超4%，英伟达跌近3%。有分析指出，投 资者正在重新审视英伟达与OpenAI之间的交易，认为其与互联网泡沫时期的交易类似。 鲍威尔重磅发声 北京时间9月24日凌晨，鲍威尔在罗德岛州普罗维登斯商会发表经济前景演讲，他表示，当前正面临通胀上行和就业下行的两面风险，这是一个有挑 战的局面。假如降息幅度过大或速度过快，可能无法有效控制高通胀、让通胀持续高于美联储2%的目标，而假如货币紧缩维持太久，则可能无谓地 拖累劳动力市场。 这是美联储上周降息后鲍威尔的首次公开讲话，据美联储官网发布的讲话稿，鲍威尔表示，总体而言，受关税消息影响，今年通胀预期的短期指标 有所上升。然而，在未来一年左右的时间里，大多数长期预期指标仍与美联储2%的通胀目标一致。 号称"美联储传声筒"的财 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a recent downturn in the stock market, particularly in technology stocks, despite previous optimism surrounding an AI bull market [1][3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's comments on high stock valuations and the challenging path for future interest rate cuts have raised concerns among short-term traders but may serve as a wake-up call for long-term investors [3][4] - Notable declines were observed in major tech stocks, with Nvidia dropping 2.8% and Oracle falling 4.3%, indicating potential overvaluation and the need for a market correction [3][4] Group 2 - The Russell 2000 index reached a new high during the trading session, suggesting that not all market segments are in panic, and the Dow Jones only experienced a slight decline of 0.19% [3] - Upcoming PCE data, a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve, is anticipated to influence market valuations and interest rate decisions, adding to the uncertainty [3][4] - The potential government shutdown, with a deadline approaching on September 30, adds another layer of short-term volatility to the market [3]

来源：滚动播报 周二美股三大指数收跌，纳指跌0.95%，标普500指数跌0.55%，道指跌0.19%。大型科技股多数收跌， 英特尔涨2.02%，谷歌、苹果微跌，Meta、微软、特斯拉跌超1%，英伟达跌超2%，亚马逊跌超3%，甲 骨文跌超4%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a structural rotation, with growth styles recently underperforming while value styles are gaining traction. This indicates a potential shift in investment strategies and opportunities in different sectors [5][7][22]. Market Performance - The market index showed a decline during the day, reaching a low of 4.3 stars but rebounded to 4.2 stars by the end of the trading session [1][2]. - Large-cap stocks experienced a smaller decline compared to mid and small-cap stocks, which saw more significant drops [3]. - Growth styles faced a more considerable downturn, while value styles overall increased [4][7]. Sector Analysis - The banking index saw an overall increase, although it had previously reached a high valuation before correcting to a normal valuation [8][9][10]. - The recent market structure favors active selection strategies, as evidenced by the slight increase in active selection portfolios [12][13]. Market Trends - The market is characterized by structural bull markets where certain sectors lead while others lag, with each bull market cycle featuring different leading sectors [14]. - Bull markets are not continuous; they often exhibit patterns of rapid increases followed by corrections, indicating the need for patience from investors [15][16]. - The A-share and Hong Kong markets have shown 2-3 cycles of significant short-term increases followed by consolidation or corrections [17][18]. Investment Strategy - For investment strategies, the index-enhanced advisory portfolio has returned to normal valuation, suggesting a pause in new investments while maintaining existing holdings until a low valuation is reached again [21]. - The active selection portfolio continues normal investments, while the monthly salary treasure portfolio, which consists of 40% stocks and 60% bonds, is recommended for stable market participation [44][45]. Personal Pension Investment - The pension index funds, specifically the CSI A500 and CSI Dividend, have returned to normal valuations, leading to a pause in new investments until they reach undervalued levels again [31][32]. - The performance of these pension index funds has shown profitability, with the CSI A500 up by approximately 20% and the CSI Dividend up by about 4% over the recent months [37].