Group 1 - The next pain point for bond traders may emerge in the five-year segment of the yield curve, particularly in Japan and Germany, as both countries are experiencing shifts in their economic policies and outlooks [1][3] - Short-term bonds are heavily influenced by monetary policy expectations, while bonds with maturities of 10 years or more are more sensitive to inflation and deficit concerns, making five-year bonds a "sweet spot" in the global bond market [3] - The yield on German five-year government bonds has dropped over 30 basis points from its peak in March, while the 10-year yield has decreased by about 25 basis points [3] Group 2 - Despite ongoing selling pressure in Germany and Japan, it is expected that bearish pressure will shift from the long end of the yield curve to the mid-section, leading to underperformance of five-year bonds in these countries compared to other maturities [3] - The recent issuance of five-year Japanese government bonds saw the strongest demand since June, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment [3]

降息临近基金看空做空美元气 金银独秀继续创新高 2025年09月16日 威尔鑫投资咨询研究中心 （文） 首席分析师 杨易君 来源：威尔鑫wellxin 周一国际现货金价以3642.99美元开盘，最高上试3685.33美元，最低下探3626.29美元，报收3678.69美元，上涨36.00美元，涨幅0.99%，振幅1.62%，日K 线呈震荡上行中长阳线，续创历史新高。 周一美元指数以97.59点开盘，最高上试97.70点，最低下探97.26点，报收97.34点，下跌260点，跌幅0.27%，振幅0.45%，日K线呈窄幅震荡下行小阴线。 周一Wellxin贵金指数（金银钯铂）以7502.56点开盘，最高上试7604.17点，最低下探7455.47点，报收7574.77点，上涨68.37点，涨幅0.91%，振幅1.98%， 日K线呈震荡上行中阳线，续创历史新高。 国际现货银价上涨1.25%，报收42.68美元；铂金价格上涨0.68%，报收1401.10美元；钯金价格下跌0.18%，报收1195.00美元。 NYMEX国际原油价格上涨1.09%，振幅1.84%，报收63.28美元； 伦铜上涨1.24%，振幅1.40% ...

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index has surged 32% since its low in April, currently only 5% below the mid-2026 target of 6900 points, despite a significant deterioration in the labor market [1] - The chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, David J. Kostin, noted that the S&P 500 index has set 21 new highs since April, the most frequent record since 2021, contrasting sharply with employment growth dropping from 158,000 in April to just 22,000 in August, leading to an unemployment rate increase to 4.3% [1] - Kostin explained that the disconnect between the stock market and labor data can be attributed to several factors, including the notion that as long as economic growth prospects remain solid, stocks typically benefit from declining yields [1] Group 2 - Labor costs currently account for approximately 12% of the S&P 500 index revenues, and 14% for the median S&P 500 constituent, with a 100 basis point change in labor costs affecting S&P 500 earnings per share by 0.7% [2] - The median employee compensation for S&P 500 constituents has increased by 3% year-over-year, while the Russell 2000 constituents saw a 4% increase, with the materials sector showing the highest median employee compensation growth at 6% [2] - The stock market appears to anticipate that the weakness in the labor market is a short-term phenomenon, as low labor cost stocks have outperformed high labor cost stocks by 8 percentage points this year (17% vs. 8%) [2] Group 3 - The company's wage survey leading indicators suggest that wage growth will continue to cool, which should provide "incremental tailwinds" for corporate profits [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the establishment of a digital research platform by CICC, aimed at providing efficient, professional, and accurate research services by integrating insights from over 30 specialized teams and covering more than 1800 stocks globally [1]. Research Insights - Daily updates on research focus and timely article selections are provided through CICC Morning Report [4]. - Senior analysts offer real-time interpretations of market hotspots via public live broadcasts [4]. Research Reports - The platform offers over 30,000 complete research reports covering macroeconomics, industry research, and commodities [9]. - It features more than 160 industry research frameworks and over 40 premium databases, enhancing the depth of analysis available [10]. Data and Research Framework - The platform includes a sophisticated AI search function, allowing users to filter key points and engage in intelligent Q&A [10].

今夜，万众瞩目的8月CPI数据即将揭晓，北京时间9月12日晚8点30分，这场经济盛宴将准时开席。华尔街的普遍预期是，受 到夏末油价回升以及部分进口商品新关税的连锁反应，通胀或将呈现温和反弹之势。预测普遍指向，整体CPI环比将达到 0.3%，同比约为2.9%；而剔除食品和能源的核心CPI，预计环比亦为0.3%，同比则可能维持在3.1%。然而，在这看似一致的 预测背后，投行内部的意见却并非铁板一块。高盛便乐观地预测核心CPI环比将攀升至0.36%，摩根大通更是将这一数字推高 至0.4%。这两家巨头不约而同地将关税视为"通胀的隐形推手"，在其模型中，关税如同一个蓄势待发的发动机，一旦企业消 化完旧库存，上涨的成本便会悄无声息地传导至货架标价。 场内外的对话充满了经济学家的智慧与市场的敏锐。在一次简短的电话交流中，当被问及今晚最关键的观察点时，一位中型 基金的策略师几乎是脱口而出："千万不要只盯着总体数据，务必聚焦核心项目的细分项：关税项、住房成本、二手车价格以 及机票价格——这些数据的任何风吹草动，都可能导致我们的投资策略需要'翻页'。"这句话极具洞察力，它提醒我们，CPI 报告并非一个单一的"惊雷"，而是由无数个 ...

Group 1 - Nasdaq's proposal to the SEC marks a significant shift from the "electronic bookkeeping era" to the "on-chain settlement era" in global capital markets [3] - The proposal aims to allow stocks and ETFs to trade in both traditional digital and tokenized forms, potentially rewriting the rules of global capital flow and efficiency [3][4] - The core objectives of the proposal include enhancing efficiency with T+0 real-time settlement, expanding trading hours to 24/7, and lowering barriers for small investors through tokenization [4] Group 2 - The technical design of the proposal focuses on compatibility with traditional systems while embedding blockchain technology, ensuring that tokenized securities share the same rights as traditional securities [5] - The regulatory framework does not break existing rules but integrates blockchain tools within the traditional system, maintaining compliance with AML and KYC processes [5] Group 3 - Institutional investors have shown positive feedback towards the proposal, with major firms like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley initiating tokenized securities trading simulations [6] - A survey indicated that 62% of U.S. retail investors are willing to try tokenized stock trading, attracted by real-time settlement and 24/7 trading capabilities [6] Group 4 - The SEC's historical approval logic has shifted from risk-averse prohibition to compliance-guided openness, as evidenced by the approval of Bitcoin ETFs after a lengthy denial period [9][10] - The SEC's 2025 policy shift under new leadership has created a favorable regulatory environment for Nasdaq's proposal, emphasizing support for tokenization as a natural evolution of financial innovation [11][12] Group 5 - The approval timeline for Nasdaq's proposal is projected to conclude by mid-2026, with a high probability of approval exceeding 80% based on current policy support and market demand [15][8] - The anticipated impact on global capital markets includes a significant increase in trading volume and liquidity, with estimates suggesting a potential daily trading volume exceeding $3 billion upon launch [16][17] Group 6 - The tokenization of securities is expected to reinforce the dominance of the U.S. dollar in global capital flows, with the use of dollar-pegged stablecoins facilitating cross-border transactions [19] - Global exchanges are likely to engage in a digitalization race, with Nasdaq's initiative prompting other markets, such as Hong Kong and the EU, to accelerate their own tokenization efforts [20] Group 7 - Emerging markets may face increased capital outflow pressures as tokenization lowers barriers for investors seeking to access U.S. markets, potentially exacerbating regulatory challenges [22] - Developed countries will experience competitive pressures in their capital markets, necessitating rapid advancements in their own tokenization processes to retain investor interest [23] Group 8 - The impact on China's capital markets includes potential capital outflow risks and intensified competition for technology company listings, as U.S. tokenization may attract Chinese firms seeking better financing opportunities [24][25] - Hong Kong's capital markets may face challenges in maintaining their status as an international financial hub, with the risk of capital diversion to tokenized U.S. securities [28][29]

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment has shifted positively towards the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, leading to a decrease in anxiety over the global trade war, with the S&P 500 index rising by 32% since April [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index's earnings expectations for 2026 have been on the rise for nine consecutive weeks, currently at $295 per share, aligning with levels from late April [2] - The second quarter saw an 11% year-over-year increase in corporate earnings, significantly exceeding prior expectations, driven by resilient consumer demand and ongoing investments in artificial intelligence [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent inflation data from August met market expectations, indicating that the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting process will proceed as planned, with the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 0.3% from July and a year-over-year increase of 3.1% [2] - The actual tariff rate in the U.S. is approximately 9%, significantly lower than the theoretical rate of around 18%, attributed to "transshipment trade" and exemptions from new or existing tariff policies [3] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Concerns over tariffs have diminished as the S&P 500 index rises, with the Bloomberg index tracking global trade uncertainty dropping to its lowest level of the year [3] - The focus on tariffs may resurface during the next earnings season, as the impact of tariffs is expected to become more apparent in the second half of the year [4]

物价上涨，就业增长停滞，股市却屡创新高，多重信号预警之下，美国民众再度回忆起上世纪70年代的痛苦—— 滞胀。 经季节性调整后，消费者价格指数的同比变动。 数据来源：美国劳工统计局 哥伦比亚大学商学院经济学家布雷特·豪斯（Brett House）指出，今年1月时，经济学家们对未来一年经济衰退的 预期处于3年来最低水平，同时预期经济增长将保持稳健，通胀率将继续下降。然而，这些预期因白宫一系列政策及 其反复无常的执行而被彻底扭转。"我们看到今年余下时间的增长预测被大幅下调，通胀预期则被推高"。 布朗大学经济学家塞布内姆·卡勒姆利-奥兹坎（Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan）认为，当前滞胀正在酝酿且速度非常慢， 企业正等待合适的时机转嫁关税成本。一旦企业开始看到需求上升，并把更高的成本转嫁给更多消费者，通胀就会随 之而来。 上世纪70年代，通胀持续走高和反复冲击导致通胀预期无法锚定，各央行为控制通胀大幅加息，引发全球经济衰 退及金融危机，许多新兴市场和发展中经济体由此进入长时间的疲弱增长时期。 目前，美国经济虽未真正陷入滞胀，但最新数据显示这一困境正在逼近。9月15日，《卫报》引援多位经济学家 观点指出，经济" ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock market is beginning to overlook weak labor data, with expectations for stock prices to accelerate again next year [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - Investors are optimistic that the recent slowdown in the labor market will be temporary [1] - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to further support the stock market [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - A cooling labor market is seen as a "tailwind" for corporate profits [1] - The relationship between labor costs and profit margins is highlighted, indicating that a 100 basis point change in labor cost growth will impact S&P 500 earnings per share by 0.7% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Emerging markets are expected to see a significant inflow of funds in early next year, driven by a weak dollar, local central bank rate cuts, and historically low allocations from global funds [1][3]. Group 1: Factors Supporting Emerging Markets - The anticipated resumption of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, along with concerns over Trump's tariffs and fiscal policies, is negatively impacting the dollar's performance [5]. - Hedge funds and other speculative investors have placed bearish bets against the dollar, amounting to approximately $5 billion as of early September [5]. - The weak dollar, further rate cut space from local central banks, and historically low allocations to emerging markets are expected to support the asset class [5][6]. Group 2: Performance and Returns - Emerging market bonds have delivered nearly 9% returns this year, outperforming developed market bonds, which have seen a 7.5% increase during the same period [4]. - The dollar index has declined over 8% this year, potentially marking its largest annual drop since 2017 [4]. Group 3: Key Beneficiaries - Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Turkey, and Poland are identified as major beneficiaries of foreign capital inflows [6]. - Asian local currency bonds are less likely to attract funds due to already low interest rates and the preference of export-oriented economies for weaker currencies [6]. Group 4: Investor Sentiment - Analysts expect previously cautious global funds to increase their investments in emerging markets, giving these markets a competitive edge over developed markets [7].