Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index fell 2.5% last week, closing at 22,849 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 3.5% to 5,313 points. The Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Index rose 0.6% as funds flowed back into high-dividend central state-owned enterprises [1] - Average daily trading volume in Hong Kong stocks decreased by 2.3% to HKD 253.4 billion, with significant inflows of HKD 63.2 billion through the Stock Connect, supporting the market [1] - The valuation of Hong Kong stocks has significantly recovered, with the AH premium at a four-year low, indicating potential for short-term pullbacks due to external pressures and liquidity concerns from company placements [1] Geopolitical and Economic Impact - The announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. has heightened market volatility, with tariffs on Chinese exports expected to rise to 66-67% when considering previous tariffs [2] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance amid inflation uncertainty has led to increased risk aversion in global markets, impacting asset prices across various sectors [2] - The geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China are expected to elevate risk premiums for Chinese assets, with potential negative impacts on emerging markets and Hong Kong stocks [2][3] Sector Analysis Consumer Sector - Haier Smart Home's stock fell 8.0% due to the unexpected increase in tariffs, which could negatively affect the investment climate for export-oriented companies [4] - The healthcare sector saw a 1.39% increase in the Hang Seng Healthcare Index, although some companies in the CXO sector experienced declines due to tariff impacts [4] Public Utilities and Environmental Sector - The public utilities sector is expected to benefit from new pricing governance policies aimed at improving pricing mechanisms for water and gas services, potentially leading to increased service charges [5][10] - The performance of public utility stocks has been mixed, with some companies like China Water Affairs showing strong revenue growth due to their high exposure to domestic water supply operations [11] Energy Sector - The coal price has decreased by 20.6% year-on-year, which may alleviate some negative impacts on the thermal power industry despite a decline in power generation [8] - The public utilities sector is expected to see a positive impact from the government's pricing reforms, particularly in water and gas operations [10] Company-Specific Insights WuXi Biologics - WuXi Biologics is projected to see a 9.6% increase in revenue for FY24, driven by a significant rise in new project numbers and improved demand in North America and Europe [13][14] - The company has a robust order backlog, with a 5.1% year-on-year increase expected by the end of FY24, supporting steady revenue growth [14] Market Sentiment - The overall performance of Hong Kong stocks in FY24 has been disappointing, with 83.3% of selected stocks underperforming market expectations, indicating a challenging operating environment [7] - The public utilities sector has shown more stability, with a lower error rate in earnings forecasts compared to other sectors [7]

一年前，施跃和他的团队做了一个国内基金圈少有人敢于尝试的事情。 2024年3月14日下午，和谐汇一的官方公众号发表文章，对即将开启百亿美金蓝海市场的NASH（非酒精性脂肪肝）赛道进行了详细介绍[1]。业内很多人都知道当 日晚间，FDA即将公布对首款NASH治疗药物Rezdiffra的评审，如果最终获批，将会创造该领域的历史性突破。 在 FDA 公告前，和谐汇一敢于对这项突破性技术做出前瞻预判，在小圈子里引起了很多赞叹。 事实上，这已经不是和谐汇一医药团队第一次做出这种判断。无论是港股上市的创新药出海龙头，还是因为获得了某款国产创新药海外授权而涨幅超十倍的美股 明星公司，和谐汇一的买入点常常都是市场还没有形成"一致性预期"的时候。 对于施跃和医药团队里的其他年轻研究员来说， 他们凭借对医药行业的深入研究和敏锐洞察，以及在投资实践中积累的经验，生动诠释 了"超额收益往往来自于 非共识的正确" 这一理念。 但从理论到实践，"非共识"往往需要一个投资团队投入专注的研究心力，并有果敢的魄力在该出手的时候，坚决出手。 放在整个行业维度，这种认知上的加持、信念上的加码也是一个医药投研团队在过去几年国内医药行业整体低迷的现实 ...

证券研究报告|医药生物|2025年3月29日 www.hczq.com 华创医药投资观点&研究专题周周谈·第119期 2025Q1医药业绩前瞻 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 报告仅供华创证券有限责任公司的客户使用，本公司不会因按久收到本报告而预其为客户。华创证券的这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，报告中的内容和赏见仅体参考，并不构成本公司对所述证券买 卖的出价或狗价，本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 :请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 ER | 01 | 行情回顾 | | --- | --- | | 02 | 板块观点和投资组合 | | 03 | 行业和个股事件 | 本周行情回顾 = 华创研究 本周中信一级行业指数涨跌幅 09 -1% -25 -3% -4% -5% -69 | 华创医药团队： | | | --- | --- | | 首席分析师 郑辰 | 执业编号: S0360520110002 邮箱: zhengchen@hcyjs.com | | 联席首席分析师 刘浩 | 执业编号: S0360520120002 邮箱: liuhao@hcyjs.co ...

Core Viewpoint - WuXi Biologics (02269) reported strong financial performance for 2024, achieving revenue of RMB 18.68 billion, with non-COVID revenue growing by 13.1% year-on-year, indicating robust growth potential and a need for valuation recovery [1][3][10] Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross profit of RMB 7.65 billion, a 12.1% increase year-on-year, and an EBITDA of RMB 6.55 billion, up 16.7% year-on-year [1] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for non-COVID revenue from 2014 to 2024 is approximately 50% [1] - The stock price increased by 47.49% year-to-date as of March 25, 2024, but remains undervalued compared to estimates from major investment banks [1][10] Market Outlook - Major investment banks, including Morgan Stanley and CICC, have upgraded their forecasts for WuXi Biologics' revenue and net profit for 2025 and 2026, with target prices set at HKD 45 and HKD 50 respectively [1] - The global CXO industry is facing challenges, with many leading companies lowering their performance guidance for 2024, yet WuXi Biologics has successfully met its performance targets [2][3] Project Growth - WuXi Biologics achieved a record total of 817 integrated projects in 2024, with 151 new projects signed, exceeding the previous expectation of 110 [4][5] - The company has a strong pipeline with 402 preclinical projects, 328 early-stage clinical projects, and 87 late-stage clinical and commercial production projects, showing significant year-on-year growth [5] Strategic Advantages - The company’s dual-factory strategy and advanced technology platforms, such as WuXiBodyTM and WuXiUITM, are expected to enhance production efficiency and reduce costs significantly [6][8] - WuXi Biologics has maintained a 100% success rate in BLA submissions, reflecting its reliable quality management system [7][8] Valuation Potential - Despite strong fundamentals, WuXi Biologics' current PE ratio of 39.56 is significantly below its five-year average of 98.85, indicating substantial upside potential [10][12] - The company’s stock buyback program, with USD 4 billion completed out of a planned USD 6 billion, has increased its net asset value per share to HKD 10.75, enhancing investment attractiveness [9]

政策红利与产业升级 从政府工作报告看中国创新药 及CXO行业战略机遇 据《2024年度中国生物医药投融资蓝皮书》，2024年共有19家中国生物医药企业完成IPO，其A股6 家、港股11家、美股2家，总募资127.73亿元人民币，同比下滑超50%，IPO数量较前一年减少10家，生 物医药IPO市场降温态势明显。而2024年A股上市的6家生物医药企业中，也并没有属于严格定义的创新 研发型企业。 全景网注意到，2025年，多个政策不断支持医药创新驱动和行业现金流改善，集采已经全面化，同 时，经过两院合编后正式提交的美国2025年度国防授权法案（NDAA）并未包含《生物安全法案》。叠 加AI制药技术的突破性进展，极大地推动了创新药的研发和产业链的拓展。 专业人士指出，从近期创新药企所发布的财报数据来看，创新药研发已步入密集收获期。百济神州 （688235.SH、06160.HK）2024年全年总收入达38亿美元，同比增长55%；GAAP经营亏损持续收窄， 首次实现全年非GAAP经营利润为正。 再鼎医药（09688.HK）发布业绩报告，2024年第四季度销售收入超过1亿美元，全年总收入近4亿 美元，分别同比增长66%、 ...

Core Viewpoint - WuXi AppTec's annual report reveals a strong revenue growth but fluctuating net profits, with a notable rebound expected in Q4 2024, driven by significant changes in business structure and strategy [1][2]. Revenue Performance - In 2024, WuXi AppTec achieved total revenue of 39.241 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2% (excluding COVID-related business). Q4 alone saw a record revenue of 11.54 billion yuan [3]. - The chemistry business remained a key driver, generating 29.05 billion yuan, with a real year-on-year growth of 11.2% after excluding COVID-related impacts. The company added 1,187 small molecule D&M pipeline projects, including 25 new commercial and Phase III projects [3]. TIDES Business Growth - The TIDES business segment reported revenue of 5.8 billion yuan in 2024, marking a remarkable year-on-year growth of 70.1%, with order volume surging by 103.9%. This growth is primarily fueled by rising global demand for small nucleic acid drugs and GLP-1 weight loss medications [5]. - WuXi AppTec significantly expanded production capacity in 2024, increasing the capacity of its peptide production facilities by 28% to 41,000 liters, with plans to further enhance GLP-1 related capacity to over 100,000 liters by the end of 2025 [5]. Global Market Expansion - In 2024, WuXi AppTec's revenue from the U.S. market reached 25.02 billion yuan, accounting for 64% of total revenue, highlighting the U.S.'s dominance in the CXO sector due to its innovation and market size [7]. - The European market showed a 14.4% year-on-year revenue growth, reaching 5.23 billion yuan, driven by stringent regulatory environments and high-quality standards [7]. - Despite a slight decline in the Chinese market, with revenue of 7.07 billion yuan (down 3.5%), its strategic importance remains intact due to a robust pharmaceutical manufacturing base and a growing innovative drug industry [8]. - Singapore and Southeast Asia are emerging as key regions for CXO capacity transfer, with significant investments in R&D and production facilities, positioning Singapore as a new center for CXO capacity in Asia [8][9]. Strategic Business Adjustments - On December 24, 2024, WuXi AppTec announced the sale of its ATU business in the U.S. and the U.K. to an American investment fund, reflecting the trend of CXO capacity shifting towards the Asia-Pacific region [10]. - The decision to divest from the ATU business, which focuses on cell and gene therapy, aligns with the company's strategy to enhance its competitive capabilities in Asia, particularly in Singapore [12]. - Recent U.S. regulatory policies have prompted CXO companies to reassess their global strategies, with WuXi AppTec's divestment seen as a proactive move to optimize resource allocation and mitigate potential policy uncertainties [13]. Globalization of the Pharmaceutical Supply Chain - The globalization of the pharmaceutical supply chain is a necessary trend for the CXO industry, driven by the need for large-scale production to improve efficiency and reduce costs [14][15]. - Chinese CXO companies are increasingly becoming integral to the global pharmaceutical supply chain, with 74% of U.S. biotech firms collaborating with Chinese CXO companies during clinical phases [16]. - The unique requirements of the pharmaceutical industry, such as stringent logistics conditions for cell and gene therapies, are pushing companies to establish overseas production bases to reduce logistics costs and enhance operational efficiency [16]. Future Outlook - WuXi AppTec's current development trajectory aligns with future trends in the CXO industry, characterized by rapid growth in TIDES business, optimized global layout, and strategic divestment from less profitable segments [19]. - The company's global strategy and sustained growth in core businesses are expected to create ongoing growth opportunities for investors, as reflected in the positive market response following the release of its 2024 financial report [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for WuXi AppTec (603259.SH) with a target price of 70.00 CNY [7][8]. Core Insights - WuXi AppTec reported a total revenue of 39.24 billion CNY for 2024, a decrease of 2.7% year-on-year, but a 5.2% increase when excluding COVID-19 related revenue. The adjusted net profit was 10.58 billion CNY, down 2.5% year-on-year [3][4]. - The company experienced a strong recovery in the fourth quarter of 2024, with revenue reaching 11.54 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 6.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.92 billion CNY, up 90.6% year-on-year [4][5]. - The outlook for 2025 is positive, with expected revenue growth of 10-15%, reaching 41.5-43.0 billion CNY, driven by strong demand in the US and European markets for new drug development [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, WuXi AppTec's revenue was 11.54 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 6.9% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 10.3%. The net profit for the same period was 2.92 billion CNY, reflecting a significant recovery [4]. - For the full year 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 39.24 billion CNY, with a net profit of 9.45 billion CNY [3][9]. Business Segments - The CRDMO business line showed resilience, with WuXi Chemistry generating 29.05 billion CNY in revenue, a slight decline of 0.4% year-on-year, while non-COVID revenue increased by 11.2% [6]. - The TIDES business segment experienced substantial growth, with revenue reaching 5.80 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 70.1% [6]. Future Projections - The company anticipates a capital expenditure of 40.0 billion CNY for 2024, with expectations to increase this to 70-80 billion CNY in 2025, indicating strong growth confidence [5][6]. - The forecast for net profit for 2025 is projected at 11.43 billion CNY, with a corresponding PE ratio of 18 [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for WuXi AppTec (603259.SH) with a target price of 70.00 CNY [7][8]. Core Views - WuXi AppTec's performance shows a marginal improvement with a robust order backlog contributing to growth momentum. The company achieved a revenue of 39.24 billion CNY in 2024, a decrease of 2.7% year-on-year, but a 5.2% increase when excluding COVID-19 related revenue. Adjusted net profit was 10.58 billion CNY, down 2.5% year-on-year [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 11.54 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 6.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.92 billion CNY, up 90.6% year-on-year and 27.2% quarter-on-quarter [4]. - The company expects a revenue growth of 10-15% in 2025, projecting revenues between 41.5 billion CNY and 43 billion CNY [4]. Business Outlook - As of the end of 2024, WuXi AppTec added approximately 1,000 new clients, with a backlog of orders reaching 49.31 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 47.0%. The capital expenditure for 2024 was 4.0 billion CNY, with expectations to rise to 7.0-8.0 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting strong growth potential [5][8]. Segment Performance - The CRDMO business segment showed resilience, with WuXi Chemistry generating 29.05 billion CNY in revenue, a slight decline of 0.4% year-on-year, while non-COVID revenue grew by 11.2%. The TIDES business segment experienced significant growth, achieving 5.80 billion CNY in revenue, up 70.1% year-on-year [6]. - WuXi Testing reported a revenue of 5.67 billion CNY, down 4.8% year-on-year, while WuXi Biology's revenue was 2.54 billion CNY, a slight decline of 0.3% year-on-year, but showed positive growth trends in Q4 2024 [6]. Financial Projections - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.43 billion CNY, 13.19 billion CNY, and 14.95 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 18, 15, and 14 [8][9]. - Revenue projections for the same period are 43.58 billion CNY, 48.82 billion CNY, and 54.88 billion CNY, with growth rates of 11.0%, 12.0%, and 12.4% respectively [9][10]. Valuation Metrics - The report highlights a projected PE ratio of 21 for 2024, decreasing to 14 by 2027, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [9][10]. - The projected PB ratio is expected to decline from 3.4 in 2024 to 2.3 in 2027, reflecting a strengthening financial position [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of WuXi AppTec, with current prices at 69.68 CNY and 72.35 HKD respectively [5]. Core Views - WuXi AppTec reported a revenue of 39.241 billion CNY for 2024, a decrease of 2.73% year-on-year, but a 5.2% increase when excluding COVID-19 commercialization projects. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.45 billion CNY, down 1.63% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items grew by 2.47% to 9.988 billion CNY, aligning with expectations [1]. - The company experienced a continuous improvement in performance, with a significant increase in backlog orders, reaching 49.31 billion CNY by the end of 2024, a 47% year-on-year growth, indicating robust future revenue support [1]. - The TIDES business segment showed remarkable growth, with a 70.1% year-on-year increase in revenue to 5.8 billion CNY, and a 103.9% growth in related backlog orders [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q4 2024, WuXi AppTec achieved a revenue of 11.54 billion CNY, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.31%, and a net profit of 2.92 billion CNY, up 27.22% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The gross margin improved by 0.68 percentage points to 43.46% [1]. Business Segments - The chemical business generated a revenue of 29.05 billion CNY in 2024, with an 11.2% year-on-year growth when excluding specific projects. The small molecule D&M business contributed 17.87 billion CNY, with a 6.4% growth excluding COVID-19 projects [2]. - The TIDES business is expected to expand capacity significantly, with the total volume of peptide solid-phase synthesis reactors increasing to 41,000 liters by the end of 2024 and projected to exceed 100,000 liters by the end of 2025 [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards, with net profit estimates of 10.978 billion CNY for 2025, 12.516 billion CNY for 2026, and 14.147 billion CNY for 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 16.2%, 14.0%, and 13.0% respectively [3]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios for A-shares are projected to be 18, 16, and 14 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, while for H-shares, they are expected to be 18, 15, and 14 [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of WuXi AppTec, with current prices at 69.68 CNY and 72.35 HKD respectively [5]. Core Insights - WuXi AppTec reported a revenue of 39.241 billion CNY for 2024, a decrease of 2.73% year-on-year, but a 5.2% increase when excluding COVID-19 commercialization projects. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.45 billion CNY, down 1.63% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items grew by 2.47% to 9.988 billion CNY, aligning with expectations [1]. - The company experienced a significant increase in backlog orders, reaching 49.31 billion CNY by the end of 2024, a 47% year-on-year growth, indicating robust future revenue support [1]. - The TIDES business segment saw a remarkable growth of 70.1% year-on-year, generating 5.8 billion CNY in revenue, with backlog orders increasing by 103.9% [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, WuXi AppTec achieved a revenue of 11.54 billion CNY, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.31%, and a net profit of 2.92 billion CNY, up 27.22% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The gross margin improved by 0.68 percentage points to 43.46% due to favorable currency exchange rates and investment income from the reduction of Wuxi XDC [1]. Business Segments - The chemical business generated 29.05 billion CNY in revenue for 2024, with an 11.2% year-on-year growth when excluding specific projects. The small molecule D&M business contributed 17.87 billion CNY, growing 6.4% year-on-year [2]. - The TIDES business is expected to continue its rapid expansion, with production capacity projected to exceed 100,000 liters by the end of 2025 [2]. Profitability and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards to 10.978 billion CNY, 12.516 billion CNY, and 14.147 billion CNY respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 16.2%, 14.0%, and 13.0% [3]. - The report indicates that the A-share price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 18, 16, and 14 times, while the H-share P/E ratios are expected to be 18, 15, and 14 times [3].