Report Overview 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views - **Polyolefins**: PE's current maintenance has reached a peak, and the start - up is gradually recovering. The inventory of the upper and middle reaches has decreased this week. Future attention should be paid to the supply rhythm and import offers. The pre - holiday CP settlement price has decreased, and the profit of PDH units has recovered. Attention should be paid to the return of PP units. In terms of demand, there are no bright spots, and there is significant inventory pressure after the holiday. Coupled with new capacity investment, the pressure of inventory accumulation in 01 is large, which limits the upside space [2]. - **Methanol**: The current market's core trading logic revolves around "high inventory + high imports". The port arrival volume remains consistently high, the inventory accumulation is significant, and the trading atmosphere has weakened, resulting in a downward price trend. The domestic supply is at a high level year - on - year. Although the number of unplanned maintenance units has increased recently, some units are expected to resume production in early October. The inventory pattern in the inland area is relatively healthy, providing some support for prices. The demand is weak due to the traditional off - season of downstream industries. In terms of valuation, the overall is in a neutral state. The current futures market is in a game situation, and future focus should be on the emergence of the inventory inflection point [5]. - **Polyester Industry Chain** - **PX**: The domestic PX load remains at a high level. The PTA processing fee is continuously low, new PTA device production is delayed, and multiple PTA units have maintenance plans. The PX supply - demand is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter, and there is an expectation of PXN compression. In the short term, PX has weak self - driving force, and the oil price support is limited. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level [8]. - **PTA**: The PTA supply is expected to shrink. The short - term downstream start - up remains at a relatively high level, and the PTA basis has been repaired, but the rebound space is limited under the weak expectation. In the short term, PTA has limited self - driving force, and the oil price support is limited. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: After the National Day holiday, the port inventory has increased significantly. The domestic supply remains at a high level, and the supply - demand is gradually weakening. Therefore, the price of ethylene glycol is under pressure [8]. - **Short Fibers**: The short - fiber supply - demand pattern is weak. The supply remains at a high level, and the inventory pressure after the holiday is not significant. It is expected that the short - term support for short fibers is stronger than that of raw materials, but the driving force is limited, and the price will mainly follow the raw materials [8]. - **Bottle Chips**: In October, there is no news of further production cuts for bottle chips. The demand in the fourth quarter is in the traditional off - season. The demand side has limited support for bottle chips. It is expected that bottle chips will enter the seasonal inventory accumulation period, and the price will mainly follow the cost side [8]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The supply of pure benzene is expected to remain at a high level, and the demand growth has great uncertainty, with limited support. The supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to be loose, and the price driving force is weak. The supply of styrene is expected to increase, and the demand side support may be limited. The supply - demand of styrene is expected to be loose, and the price is under pressure after the holiday [9]. - **PVC - Caustic Soda** - **Caustic Soda**: The short - term demand for caustic soda lacks support and tends to be weak, and it can be treated bearishly in the short term. However, there is demand support in the medium and long term, and attention should be paid to the downstream restocking rhythm [10]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand contradiction of PVC is difficult to resolve. The supply is in an over - supply pattern, and the demand in the peak season is not strong. The cost side provides bottom support. It is expected that the downside space of PVC is limited during the peak season, and attention should be paid to the downstream demand performance [10]. 3. Summary by Directory Polyolefins - **Price Changes**: From September 30th to October 9th, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 decreased, with declines of - 1.06%, - 0.86%, - 1.56%, and - 1.06% respectively. The spreads of L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 increased, with increases of 20.90% and 121.43% respectively. The spot prices of East China PP fiber and North China LLDPE film decreased, with declines of - 1.04% and - 0.99% respectively [2]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The PE device start - up rate increased by 1.85% to 81.8%, and the downstream weighted start - up rate increased by 2.82% to 44.1%. The PE enterprise inventory decreased by 16.50% to 38.3 (in appropriate units), and the social inventory decreased by 1.93% to 52.5 million tons. The PP device start - up rate increased by 1.4% to 76.6%, the powder start - up rate increased by 4.3% to 35.5%, and the downstream weighted start - up rate increased by 18.7% to 61.5. The PP enterprise inventory decreased by 5.50% to 52.0, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.58% to 18.7 million tons [2]. Methanol - **Price Changes**: From September 30th to October 9th, the closing prices of MA2601 and MA2605 decreased, with declines of - 1.63% and - 0.68% respectively. The MA15 spread increased by 64.71%, and the Taicang basis increased by 9.24%. The spot prices of Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan Luoyang, and Port Taicang decreased, with declines of - 0.36%, - 2.22%, and - 1.23% respectively [5]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 6.08% to 33.94%, the port inventory increased by 3.42% to 154.3 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 3.89% to 188.3%. The start - up rates of Shanghai - domestic enterprises and Shanghai - overseas enterprises increased by 2.22% and 0.63% respectively. The northwest enterprise sales - production ratio increased by 9.60%, the downstream - external MTO device start - up rate increased by 4.63%, the downstream - formaldehyde start - up rate decreased by 7.22%, the downstream - acetic acid start - up rate decreased by 0.97%, and the downstream - MTBE start - up rate decreased by 0.59% [5]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Price Changes**: From October 8th to 9th, the prices of Brent crude oil (December) and WTI crude oil (November) decreased, with declines of - 1.6% and - 1.7% respectively. The price of CFR Japan naphtha remained unchanged, and the price of CFR China MX increased by 0.4%. The prices of CFR Northeast Asia ethylene and CFR China PX remained unchanged [8]. - **Downstream Product Price and Cash - flow Changes**: The prices of POY150/48, FDY150/96, polyester chips, and polyester bottle chips decreased, with declines of - 0.8%, - 0.5%, - 0.6%, and - 0.8% respectively. The cash - flows of POY150/48 and FDY150/96 decreased, with declines of - 7.9% and - 5.3% respectively. The cash - flow of DTY150/48 increased by 275.0%, and the polyester chip cash - flow increased by 20.3%. The bottle chip processing fee increased by 0.2%, and the bottle chip basis decreased by 70.0% [8]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The MEG port inventory increased by 24.0% to 50.7 million tons, and the arrival expectation decreased by 65.8% to 8.0 million tons. The Asian PX start - up rate decreased by 0.3% to 78.0%, the Chinese PX start - up rate increased by 0.5% to 86.7%, the PTA start - up rate remained unchanged at 76.8%, the MEG comprehensive start - up rate decreased by 2.4% to 73.1%, the coal - based MEG start - up rate decreased by 6.3% to 74.4%, the direct - spinning filament start - up rate decreased by 0.4% to 93.5%, the polyester bottle chip start - up rate decreased by 5.8% to 67.8%, the pure - polyester yarn start - up rate increased by 0.3% to 64.2%, the Jiangsu - Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate increased by 3.8% to 81%, the Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom start - up rate increased by 6.1% to 70%, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang printing start - up rate increased by 5.6% to 76% [8]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Price Changes**: From September 30th to October 9th, the prices of Brent crude oil (November), WTI crude oil (October), CFR Japan naphtha, and CFR Northeast Asia ethylene decreased, with declines of - 2.7%, - 1.4%, - 1.3%, and - 0.6% respectively. The price of CFR China pure benzene decreased by 0.7%, the pure benzene - naphtha spread increased by 2.2%, and the ethylene - naphtha spread increased by 1.3% [9]. - **Styrene - related Price and Cash - flow Changes**: The price of styrene in East China remained unchanged. The prices of EB2510 and EB2511 decreased, with declines of - 0.2% and - 0.2% respectively. The EB basis (10) increased by 12.5%, the EB10 - EB11 spread increased by 5.0%, the non - integrated EB cash - flow increased by 11.3%, and the integrated EB cash - flow increased by 13.6%. The EB - BZ spot spread increased by 1.9%, and the EB10 - BZ03 spread increased by 2.7% [9]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 14.2% to 9.10 million tons, and the styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased by 2.2% to 20.19 million tons. The Asian pure benzene start - up rate remained unchanged at 79.0%, the domestic pure benzene start - up rate increased by 1.2% to 79.3%, the domestic hydro - benzene start - up rate increased by 6.8% to 64.0%, the benzene production start - up rate increased by 9.9% to 78.0%, the caprolactam start - up rate increased by 5.7% to 93.8%, the benzene - related start - up rate increased by 4.0% to 74.9%, the styrene start - up rate decreased by 0.2% to 73.2%, the downstream PS start - up rate decreased by 3.4% to 59.1%, the downstream EPS start - up rate decreased by 10.5% to 55.3%, and the downstream ABS start - up rate increased by 0.3% to 70.0% [9]. PVC - Caustic Soda - **Price Changes**: From September 30th to October 9th, the prices of East China calcium carbide - based PVC and East China ethylene - based PVC decreased, with declines of - 1.3% and - 1.0% respectively. The prices of SHS209 and SH2601 decreased, with declines of - 1.8% and - 3.2% respectively. The SH basis increased by - 33.1%, and the SH2509 - 2601 spread increased by 28.9%. The prices of V2509 and V2601 decreased, with declines of - 1.0% and - 1.4% respectively. The V basis decreased by - 0.8%, and the V2509 - V2601 spread increased by 3.3% [10]. - **Export and Profit**: The FOB price of caustic soda in East China ports remained unchanged, and the export profit decreased by 26.3%. The CFR prices of PVC in Southeast Asia and India remained unchanged, the FOB price of calcium carbide - based PVC in Tianjin Port increased by 0.8%, and the export profit increased by 323.8% [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry start - up rate increased by 1.6% to 86.8%, the Shandong sample start - up rate increased by 0.6% to 85.6%, the PVC total start - up rate increased by 0.9% to 76.1%, the profit of externally - purchased calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 11.2% to - 896.0 yuan/ton, and the northwest integrated profit decreased by 68.9% to 43.3 yuan/ton. The alumina industry start - up rate remained unchanged at 83.7%, the viscose staple fiber industry start - up rate increased by 0.3% to 89.8%, the printing and dyeing industry start - up rate increased by 0.6% to 66.2%. The Longzhong sample profile start - up rate increased by 3.3% to 40.4, the Longzhong sample profile start - up rate decreased by 1.3% to 38.0, and the Longzhong sample PVC pre - sales volume increased by 0.5% to 75.9 million tons [10]. - **Inventory**: The liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories increased by 14.2% to 19.7 million tons, the liquid caustic soda inventory in Shandong increased by 9.9% to 11.1 million tons, the PVC upstream factory inventory increased by 3.9% to 31.8 million tons, and the PVC total social inventory remained unchanged at 53.5 million tons [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Propylene: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Plastics: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - PVC: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - PX: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - PTA: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Short - fiber: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Glass: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] 2. Core Views - The chemical market shows complex trends with different product performances. Some products are affected by factors such as device maintenance, demand changes, and supply - demand imbalances [2][3][5]. - There are differences in the performance of the spot and futures markets, and the basis has changed in some products [2][3]. - The supply - demand relationship is a key factor affecting prices, with some products facing supply - demand contradictions [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene prices continued to rise due to early - started planned maintenance of a device in Dongying during the National Day holiday and the gradual recovery of some downstream demand. However, the futures price fell on the first trading day after the holiday, resulting in a divergence between the spot and futures markets and an enlarged basis [2]. - Polyolefins faced a situation of weak peak - season demand, mainly with rigid procurement. The large - scale release of new production capacity led to a significant increase in domestic output, resulting in prominent supply - demand contradictions. There was inventory accumulation during the holidays, and there was obvious pressure to reduce inventory after the holidays, causing price pressure [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - During the National Day, the oil price dropped, and the pure benzene futures once fell below 5700 yuan/ton in the morning session and then rebounded with the oil price in the afternoon. The spot price in East China was weak, the shipment in Shandong was dull, and Sinopec's listed price remained stable. The device operation rate continued to rise, and the port inventory decreased. However, high imports and expected demand decline continued to drag down the market [3]. - The main contract of styrene futures closed slightly lower, with the overall center of gravity moving down along the 5 - day moving average. The oil price during the holiday was basically the same as before the holiday, having limited impact on the cost of styrene. The demand was weak during the peak season, and the supply increased significantly due to the expansion of production capacity. The inventory of styrene has been significantly higher year - on - year since this year and has shown a trend of oscillating inventory accumulation after June, suppressing the price [3] Polyester - During the holiday, the overseas oil price dropped, causing the prices of PX and PTA to weaken in the morning and then recover with the rebound of the oil price in the afternoon. The operation rate of PX continued to increase. Hengli Dalian's PTA carried out maintenance, and some East China devices reduced their loads due to reasons. In the short term, PX was under pressure, and the PTA link repaired its profit. However, in the future, the PX of Wushi Petrochemical plans to carry out maintenance, and the polyester load is expected to remain stable. The near - term supply - demand pattern of upstream raw materials is okay, and attention should be paid to terminal orders and raw material restocking. In mid - to late October, the downstream demand is expected to gradually weaken, and the supply - demand situation will still be under pressure in the long - term [5]. - The domestic operation rate of ethylene glycol increased significantly, and the port inventory accumulated significantly during the holiday, with a weak fundamental situation. The main futures price once approached the 4100 yuan/ton mark. In the medium - term, with the mass production of new devices and the weakening of future demand, the supply - demand situation will gradually weaken in the fourth quarter, and the 1 - 5 spread is under downward pressure [5]. - The new production capacity of short - fiber is limited, and the operation rate is at a high level. The terminal weaving and dyeing industries increased their operation rates, and the recovery of peak - season demand boosted the short - fiber industry. It is recommended to be long in the short - term, and attention should be paid to downstream orders and short - fiber inventory [5]. - The operation rate of bottle chips increased, but after the long holiday, with the cooling weather, the demand is expected to weaken. Overcapacity is a long - term pressure, and the processing margin is under continuous pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures price dropped significantly. During the holiday, the import volume remained high, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol devices increased. Before the holiday, inland olefin enterprises carried out centralized external procurement, and enterprises had sufficient pending orders, but the order execution was slowed down due to logistics restrictions, and the inventory of production enterprises increased slightly. Imports are expected to remain sufficient, and the port is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. The near - term situation is weak, while the far - month outlook is relatively strong. Attention should be paid to factors such as macro - sentiment and overseas device changes [6]. - During the National Day holiday, urea production enterprises significantly accumulated inventory, with high supply and great pressure on enterprise shipments. Affected by factors such as weather and logistics, the downstream demand was insufficient. Export orders were being shipped, and the port inventory decreased. Although India issued a new round of urea tenders, planning to import 2 million tons, the export window period may have ended, and the short - term boost to the market is limited. The pattern of loose domestic supply - demand of urea is difficult to change, and attention should be paid to possible policy adjustments and their impact on market sentiment [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - The main contract of PVC dropped. During the holiday, the downstream demand weakened, the supply was at a high level, and the inventory increased significantly. After the end of maintenance and the release of new production capacity, the supply pressure was high. The downstream's intention to stock up was not high, and the industry continued the inventory - accumulation mode. The chlor - alkali integration still had profits, and the cost support was not obvious. PVC may show a weak - oscillating trend [7]. - The caustic soda futures dropped significantly. There was still the phenomenon of vehicle detention by downstream buyers, and the purchase price may be further reduced, with the inventory increasing compared with the previous period. There are small - scale maintenance plans for caustic soda in North China and East China in October, and the supply is still under high - pressure operation due to remaining profits. The liquid - caustic soda inventory of alumina plants in Shanxi and Henan is high, and the downstream profit is shrinking, with resistance to high prices. The weak - reality pattern continues, but the strong expectation of possible restocking demand before the future downstream alumina production cannot be falsified. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Soda Ash - Glass - The price of soda ash futures was weakly operating. Before the holiday, the inventory was mainly reduced, and it increased after the holiday. The rigid demand for heavy soda was stable. The production capacity of float glass and photovoltaic glass has been stable recently. The inventory of the photovoltaic industry has changed from decreasing to increasing, and it is expected that the ignition speed will slow down in the future, with limited incremental rigid demand for heavy soda. There are few maintenance plans in October, and the industry currently has little operating pressure, with high - pressure supply. The long - term pattern of supply - demand surplus remains unchanged, and opportunities to short at high prices should be sought, but caution should be exercised near the cost [8]. - The price of glass futures fluctuated narrowly. During the holiday, downstream enterprises had holidays, and the production and sales were insufficient, with seasonal inventory accumulation in the industry. Some regions raised their quoted prices. The daily melting volume was oscillating at a relatively high level. The processing orders improved but were still insufficient on a month - on - month basis, and some engineering orders increased. The situation of whether Shahe will centrally use Zhengkang's deep - processed gas should be continuously tracked. If the production - capacity reduction does not actually occur, the market may return to weak - reality trading, but with the current low valuation, the decline is expected to be limited. A low - buying strategy near the cost can be considered in the future [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The average capacity utilization rate of China's sample caustic soda enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above increased slightly, and the overall caustic soda production capacity utilization rate increased slightly with little change. The downstream alumina device runs stably with a slight increase in the start - up rate, while the start - up rates of viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing change slightly. During the holiday, some downstream enterprises stopped work, leading to inventory accumulation and high pressure in liquid caustic soda factories. The subsidy of liquid chlorine in Shandong cannot offset the weak caustic soda price, and the chlor - alkali profit narrows month - on - month. The expected decrease in the maintenance loss of chlor - alkali devices in October may drive up the central value of caustic soda capacity utilization. The alumina profit continues to decline and approaches the break - even line, and the short - term caustic soda consumption demand is not expected to shrink significantly. Non - aluminum downstream lacks demand improvement signals and is expected to maintain rigid - demand procurement. There was an inventory accumulation expectation for liquid caustic soda factories during the National Day due to logistics blockages, and the inventory pressure may ease after the festival. There are new alumina device investments from the fourth quarter of this year to the beginning of next year, giving an expectation of supply - demand improvement in the long - term. Technically, the short - term market trend of SH2601 is bearish [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract is 2450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 81 yuan/ton; the position of the main caustic soda contract is 102,719 lots, an increase of 18,857 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 2697 lots, a decrease of 3064 lots; the trading volume of the main caustic soda contract is 290,860 lots, an increase of 116,592 lots. The closing price of the January caustic soda contract is 2450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 81 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the May contract is 2550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 63 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton with no change, and in Jiangsu is 940 yuan/ton with no change. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2500 yuan/ton with no change, and the basis of caustic soda is 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 81 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton with no change, and in the Northwest is 210 yuan/ton with no change. The price of steam coal is 643 yuan/ton with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 150 yuan/ton with no change, and in Jiangsu is - 75 yuan/ton with no change [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,120 yuan/ton with no change, and the spot price of alumina is 2885 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From September 19th to 25th, the average capacity utilization rate of China's 200,000 - ton and above caustic soda sample enterprises was 82.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. From September 27th to October 3rd, the national alumina start - up rate was 86.18%, a month - on - month increase of 0.23%. From September 26th to October 9th, the viscose staple fiber start - up rate decreased by 0.19% month - on - month to 89.63%, and the printing and dyeing start - up rate increased by 0.47% month - on - month to 66.63%. As of October 9th, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 421,200 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month increase of 7.68% and a year - on - year increase of 26.56%. From September 19th to 25th, the weekly average profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 258 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease [3].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for caustic soda is experiencing a downward trend, with prices fluctuating and a notable decline in demand from downstream industries [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The main contract for caustic soda opened at 2520.0 CNY/ton, with a maximum of 2526.0 CNY and a minimum of 2442.0 CNY, reflecting a decline of approximately 2.35% [1] - The overall performance of the caustic soda market is weak, indicating a bearish sentiment among traders [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The expected decrease in maintenance losses for chlor-alkali plants in October may lead to an increase in caustic soda production capacity utilization [1] - Despite the decline in alumina profits nearing the breakeven point, there are no large-scale production cut plans, suggesting that short-term caustic soda demand will not significantly shrink [1] - The logistics disruptions during the National Day holiday have led to expectations of inventory accumulation in liquid caustic soda plants [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - As downstream non-aluminum industries resume operations post-holiday, the inventory pressure on liquid caustic soda plants may ease [1] - New alumina production facilities are expected to come online in Q4 this year to early next year, which could improve supply-demand dynamics in the long term [1] - The price range for caustic soda futures is anticipated to be between 2470-2580 CNY in the near term [1] Group 4: Regional Insights - In Shandong, there is no significant positive demand post-National Day, leading to high operational loads for chlor-alkali enterprises and increased inventory pressure [2] - The overall supply pressure remains due to the commissioning of new facilities, while the demand from downstream sectors is not meeting expectations [2] - The textile and dyeing industries are seeing a slight increase in operating rates, but the overall demand recovery is still dependent on marginal improvements from downstream sectors [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Xinjinlu's stock has shown significant price increases this year, with a 60% rise year-to-date and a 10.77% increase over the last five trading days [1] - As of October 9, Xinjinlu's stock price reached 5.76 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 3.736 billion CNY [1] - The company has experienced net outflows of main funds amounting to 19.04 million CNY, with large orders showing a buy-sell imbalance [1] Group 2 - Xinjinlu's main business involves the production and operation of chlor-alkali chemicals and plastic products, with revenue composition being 41.61% from resin products, 38.43% from alkali products, and 19.97% from others [1] - The company is classified under the basic chemical industry, specifically in chlor-alkali chemicals, and is associated with several concept sectors including small-cap, military information technology, and aerospace military [2] - As of September 10, the number of Xinjinlu's shareholders decreased by 17.24% to 53,600, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 20.83% to 11,312 shares [2] Group 3 - Xinjinlu reported a revenue of 816 million CNY for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 16.27%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -67.04 million CNY, down 15.16% year-on-year [2] - Since its A-share listing, Xinjinlu has distributed a total of 124 million CNY in dividends, with no dividends paid in the last three years [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Methanol - The current market's core trading logic revolves around "high inventory + high imports." Port arrivals remain high, leading to significant inventory accumulation. Combined with a weakening trading atmosphere, prices are showing a downward trend. - Domestic supply is at a relatively high level year-on-year. Although there has been an increase in unplanned maintenance of some devices recently, there are expectations for some devices to resume production in early October. However, the inventory situation in the inland area is relatively healthy, providing some support for prices. - On the demand side, affected by the off - season of traditional downstream industries, overall demand is weak. In terms of valuation, upstream profits are at a neutral level, MTO profits have strengthened, and traditional downstream profits have slightly improved, resulting in an overall neutral valuation. - The current futures market is in a state of contention: on one hand, there is the real - world pressure of high inventory and weak basis; on the other hand, there is the expected support of overseas gas restrictions in the distant future. Attention should be paid to the emergence of an inventory inflection point [1]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - During the holiday, crude oil and naphtha prices both declined. Fundamentally, there are expectations for the resumption of production of some maintenance devices and the commissioning of new production capacity for pure benzene in the near future. Coupled with the expected increase in imports in the fourth quarter, domestic pure benzene supply is expected to remain at a relatively high level. - In terms of demand, most downstream pure benzene products are currently operating at a loss, and the secondary - downstream inventory of some products is high. There has been an increase in unplanned production cuts in some downstream industries, and there is significant uncertainty in demand growth, providing limited support. Overall, the supply - demand outlook for pure benzene remains loose, and the price driving force is weak. - For styrene, during the holiday, crude oil, naphtha, and styrene spot prices all declined. There are expectations for the commissioning of new devices and the resumption of production of previously shut - down devices after the holiday, so supply is expected to increase. Although there are still some devices planning to shut down, it is difficult to fully offset the pressure from new and resumed production. - On the demand side, there is rigid demand support during the downstream seasonal peak season, but the profits of some downstream industries are under pressure, and finished - product inventory remains high, so demand - side support may be limited. The supply - demand outlook for styrene is also loose, with high port inventory and weak cost - side support. After the holiday, styrene prices are expected to remain under pressure [3]. Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP) - PE maintenance has reached a peak, and the operating rate is gradually recovering. Inventory in the upstream and mid - stream has decreased this week. Future attention should be paid to the supply rhythm and import offers. - Before the holiday, the CP settlement price decreased, and PDH device profits were restored. Future attention should be paid to the resumption of PP devices. - On the demand side, there are no bright spots. After the holiday, there is significant inventory pressure. Coupled with the launch of new production capacity, there is a large pressure for inventory accumulation in the 01 contract, which limits the upside potential [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, most mid - and downstream enterprises were on holiday during the festival, and there was no obvious fluctuation in the spot market. Before the holiday, the futures market continued to weaken. After the National Day, as non - aluminum inventory is digested and decreases, there may be some purchasing willingness due to low prices. - The downstream inventory of the main alumina producers is high, and the willingness to replenish inventory is also low. The delivery volume of large Shandong manufacturers was high before the holiday, and there is an expectation of a downward adjustment in future purchase prices. Alumina production capacity is at a high level, and there is an over - supply problem. It is expected that production cuts may not occur until January. Therefore, there is still some support for short - term caustic soda demand. - From the perspective of the commissioning schedule, there will be a large number of alumina commissionings in the first quarter of next year. Therefore, there may be concentrated inventory replenishment in the fourth quarter of this year, which may tighten the spot liquidity. It is expected that there is limited downside space for caustic soda in the future, and attention should be paid to the downstream inventory replenishment rhythm. - For PVC, most mid - and downstream enterprises were on holiday during the festival, and spot trading was light. Before the holiday, the PVC futures market weakened and fluctuated. The supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is still difficult to resolve, and both futures and spot prices are weakening. - On the supply side, production remains at a high level, and the over - supply situation is prominent. On the demand side, there has been no obvious performance during the peak season, and the demand for profiles has continued to shrink, showing obvious characteristics of a non - peak season. - Overall, the willingness of upstream producers to hold inventory has decreased. However, exports have alleviated some of the over - supply pressure. The cost of raw material calcium carbide is on an upward trend, and ethylene prices are stable, providing bottom - level support for costs. After the holiday, attention should be paid to cost support. It is expected that there is limited downside space for PVC during the peak season, and attention should be paid to downstream demand performance [7]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, during the holiday, international oil prices fluctuated within a range. The main trading logic was that OPEC + announced only a slight increase in production in January, which was lower than market expectations, temporarily alleviating supply pressure. Currently, the domestic PX operating rate remains high. - On the demand side, due to continuously low PTA processing fees, the commissioning of new PTA devices has been delayed, and there are maintenance expectations for multiple PTA devices. The supply - demand outlook for PX in the fourth quarter is weak, and there is an expectation of PXN compression. The overall trend during the National Day holiday was weak. It is expected that PX will continue to fluctuate weakly after the holiday. - For PTA, due to continuously low processing fees, the commissioning of new PTA devices has been postponed, and there are maintenance expectations for multiple PTA devices. Some devices have reduced or stopped production due to the impact of typhoons, so PTA supply is expected to contract. - Coupled with the pre - holiday downstream inventory replenishment demand, the PTA basis has been slightly repaired, but the expected upward space is limited. The overall trend during the National Day holiday was weak. It is expected that the driving force for PTA after the holiday will be limited, and it will continue to fluctuate weakly. - For ethylene glycol, during the holiday, there were many foreign - owned vessel arrivals. It is expected that port inventory will increase significantly after the holiday. In addition, the restart of the Satellite Petrochemical device and the commissioning of the new Yulong Petrochemical device in October will keep domestic supply at a high level, and the supply - demand situation will gradually weaken. Therefore, it is expected that there will be upward pressure on ethylene glycol after the holiday. - For short - fiber, the supply - demand pattern is weak. Currently, short - fiber supply remains at a high level. On the demand side, the market replenished inventory before the holiday, and the inventory of directly - spun polyester short - fiber has been continuously decreasing. It is expected that short - fiber will be relatively more supported than raw materials in the short term, but the driving force is limited, and its rhythm will mainly follow the raw materials. - For bottle - grade polyester chips, there is no news of further production cuts in October. The fourth quarter is the traditional off - season for bottle - grade polyester chips. Considering the gradual cooling of the weather in October, the demand for soft drinks and catering will decline slightly, and the demand side provides insufficient support. Therefore, bottle - grade polyester chips are likely to enter a seasonal inventory - reduction channel, and PR will mainly follow the cost side, with upward pressure on processing fees [8]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Methanol Price and Spread - MA2601 closed at 2328 on September 30, down 31.00 or 1.31% from the previous day; MA2605 closed at 2362, down 26.00 or 1.09%. - The MA15 spread was - 34, down 5.00 or 17.24%; the Taicang basis was - 125, up 13.50 or - 9.78%. - The spot price of Inner Mongolia's northern line remained unchanged at 2090 yuan/ton; the spot price of Luoyang, Henan remained unchanged at 2250 yuan/ton; the spot price of Taicang Port was 2238 yuan/ton, down 12.50 or - 0.56%. - The regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's northern line was 148, down 12.50 or - 7.81%; the regional spread between Taicang and Luoyang was - 13, down 12.50 [1]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory was 31.994%, down 2.05 or - 6.03% from the previous value; methanol port inventory was 149.2 tons, down 6.56 or - 4.21%; methanol social inventory was 181.2%, down 8.61 or - 4.54% [1]. Operating Rate - The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate was 74.27%, up 1.61 or 2.22%; the operating rate of a certain unspecified enterprise was 65.0%, down 3.85 or - 5.59%. - The production - sales rate of northwest enterprises was 127%, up 11.17 or 9.60%; the operating rate of downstream externally - purchased MTO devices was 82.46%, up 7.38 or 9.83%. - The operating rate of downstream formaldehyde was 32.7%, down 0.13 or - 0.40%; the operating rate of downstream acetic acid was 81.4%, down 0.97 or - 1.18%; the operating rate of downstream MTBE was 65.9%, up 2.12 or 3.32% [1]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Upstream Price and Spread - Brent crude oil (November) was $66.03 per barrel on September 30, down $1.94 or 2.9% from the previous day; WTI crude oil (October) was $63.45 per barrel, down $1.7 or 1.7%. - CFR Japan naphtha was $592 per ton, down $12 or 2.5%; CFR Northeast Asia ethylene was $810 per ton, down $2 or 0.6%. - The pure benzene - naphtha spread was 123, up 7 or 6.3%; the ethylene - naphtha spread was 208, up 10 or 4.9%. - The pure benzene (Sinopec East China listed price) was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the pure benzene East China spot price was 5770 yuan/ton, down 1.5% [3]. Styrene - Related Price and Spread - The styrene East China spot price was 6830 yuan/ton on September 30, down 80 or 1.2%; EB futures 2510 was 6734 yuan/ton, down 2.1%; EB futures 2511 was 6932 yuan/ton, down 97 or 1.4%. - The EB basis (10) was 96, up 200.0%; the EB10 - EB11 spread was - 101, down 87.0% [3]. Downstream Cash Flow - The phenol cash flow was - 353 yuan/ton on September 30, up 13.6%; the caprolactam cash flow (single product) was - 1920 yuan/ton, up 4.5%; the aniline cash flow was 630 yuan/ton, up 13.9%; the EPS cash flow was - 130 yuan/ton, up 18.8%; the PS cash flow was 220 yuan/ton, up 57.1%; the ABS cash flow was 140 yuan/ton, up 121.9% [3]. Inventory and Operating Rate - The pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory was 10.60 tons on September 30, down 0.10 or - 0.9%; the styrene Jiangsu port inventory was 19.75 tons, up 1.10 or 5.9%. - The Asian pure benzene operating rate was 79.0%, unchanged; the domestic pure benzene operating rate was 79.3%, up 0.9% or 1.2%; the domestic hydro - benzene operating rate was 64.0%, up 6.8%; the styrene operating rate was 73.2%, down 0.2% [3]. Polyolefins Price and Spread - The L2601 closing price was 7153 on September 30, down 28 or 0.39%; the L2509 closing price was 7220, down 19 or 0.26%. - The PP2601 closing price was 6852, down 51 or 0.74%; the PP2509 closing price was 6880, down 34 or 0.49%. - The L2509 - 2601 spread was 67, up 9 or 15.52%; the PP2509 - 2601 spread was 28, up 17 or 154.55% [5]. Inventory and Operating Rate - The PE enterprise inventory was 38.3 tons on September 30, down 7.56 or - 16.50%; the PE social inventory was 52.5 tons, down 1.03 or - 1.93%. - The PP enterprise inventory was 52.0 tons, down 3.03 or - 5.50%; the PP trader inventory was 18.7 tons, down 0.11 or - 0.58%. - The PE device operating rate was 81.8%, up 1.48 or 1.85%; the PE downstream weighted operating rate was 44.1%, up 1.21 or 2.82%. - The PP device operating rate was 75.5%, up 0.63 or 0.8%; the PP powder operating rate was 35.5%, up 1.46 or 4.3%; the downstream weighted operating rate was 51.9%, up 0.40 or 0.8% [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda Spot and Futures Price - The Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted - to - 100% price was 2500.0 yuan/ton on September 30, unchanged; the Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda converted - to - 100% price was 2600.0 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The East China calcium carbide - based PVC market price was 4700.0 yuan/ton, down 30.0 or - 0.6%; the East China ethylene - based PVC market price was 5000.0 yuan/ton, unchanged [7]. Overseas Quotation and Export Profit - The FOB East China port price of caustic soda was $400.0 per ton on September 25, unchanged; the export profit was 164.7 yuan/ton, down 58.7 or - 26.3%. - The CFR Southeast Asia price of PVC was $650.0 per ton on September 25, unchanged; the CFR India price was $730.0 per ton, unchanged; the FOB Tianjin Port calcium carbide - based PVC price was $605.0 per ton, up 5.0 or 0.8%; the export profit was 50.2 yuan/ton, up 72.6 or 323.8% [7]. Supply and Demand - The caustic soda industry operating rate was 86.8% on September 26, up 1.4 or 1.6%; the Shandong sample caustic soda operating rate was 85.6%, up 0.5 or 0.6%. - The PVC total operating rate was 76.1%, up 0.7 or 0.9%; the profit of externally - purchased calcium carbide - based PVC was - 896.0 yuan/ton, down 90.0 or - 11.2%; the northwest integrated profit was 43.3 yuan/ton, down 96.0 or - 68.9%. - The alumina industry operating rate was 83.7% on September 19, unchanged; the rubber staple fiber industry operating rate was 89.8%, up 0.3 or 0.3%; the printing and dyeing industry operating rate was 66.2%, up 0.4 or 0.6%. - The Longzhong sample pipe material operating rate was 40.4% on September 26, up 1.3 or 3.3%; the Longzhong sample profile operating rate was 38.9%, down 0.5 or - 1.3%; the Long

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The market trading is average, and the chlor - alkali market shows a weak and fluctuating trend. PVC supply is abundant, downstream consumption is limited, and the export side shows some resilience. The 32% alkali spot price of caustic soda has been continuously reduced, the 50% alkali orders have improved, and the inventory situation is complex, with attention needed on downstream procurement and production capacity expansion [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,896 yuan/ton (-1), the East China basis is -176 yuan/ton (+1), and the South China basis is -86 yuan/ton (+1) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,720 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,810 yuan/ton (-10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 690 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,890 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 48 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit is -784 yuan/ton (-127), the ethylene - based PVC production gross profit is -645 yuan/ton (+7), and the PVC export profit is 7.1 dollars/ton (+1.4) [1]. - Inventory and operation rate: The PVC in - factory inventory is 31.8 million tons (+1.2), the social inventory is 53.5 million tons (+0.0), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate is 76.97% (+0.06%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate is 74.12% (+2.12%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 76.11% (+0.68%) [1]. - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 75.9 million tons (+0.4) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,515 yuan/ton (-13), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is -15 yuan/ton (+13) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,300 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,509 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 725.8 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 159.78 yuan/ton (-20.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1,381.75 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 39.12 million tons (+1.29), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.08 million tons (-0.10), and the caustic soda operation rate is 82.50% (+0.60%) [2]. - Downstream operation rate: The alumina operation rate is 85.95% (-0.28%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 66.15% (+0.39%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 89.82% (+0.30%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The PVC market fluctuates with the macro - environment. The supply is abundant with planned maintenance in some areas and new production capacity ramping up. Although enterprises are actively pre - selling, downstream operation rates are generally slightly down, and consumption is limited. The export side shows some resilience, but the PVC wallpaper anti - dumping investigation in India may have an impact on exports [3]. Caustic Soda - The spot price of 32% caustic soda has been continuously reduced, the 50% caustic soda orders have improved, and the price has stabilized. Supply may increase slightly, and demand from the alumina industry is stable but with high - price sales difficulties. There are differences in inventory changes, and attention should be paid to downstream procurement, production capacity expansion, and cost support [3]. Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Hold [4]. - Inter - delivery spread: Sell the near - term contract and buy the far - term contract for V01 - V05 when the spread is high [4]. - Inter - commodity spread: No strategy [4]. Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Hold [5]. - Inter - delivery spread: Buy the near - term contract and sell the far - term contract for SH01 - SH05 when the spread is low, paying attention to downstream procurement rhythm and alumina capacity expansion progress [5]. - Inter - commodity spread: No strategy [5].

Company Overview - Xinjin Road Group Co., Ltd. is located in Deyang, Sichuan Province, and was established on April 18, 1992, with its listing date on May 7, 1993. The company primarily engages in the production and operation of chlor-alkali chemicals and plastic products [1][2]. - The main business revenue composition includes resin products (41.61%), alkali products (38.43%), and others (19.97%) [1]. Stock Performance - As of September 30, Xinjin Road's stock price increased by 2.03%, reaching 5.54 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 3.593 billion CNY. The trading volume was 50.9181 million CNY, with a turnover rate of 1.53% [1]. - Year-to-date, Xinjin Road's stock price has risen by 53.89%, with a 7.78% increase over the last five trading days, a 2.97% increase over the last 20 days, and a 9.06% increase over the last 60 days [1]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Xinjin Road reported an operating income of 816 million CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 16.27%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -67.036 million CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 15.16% [2]. - The company has cumulatively distributed 124 million CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with no dividends distributed in the last three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of September 10, Xinjin Road had 53,600 shareholders, a decrease of 17.24% from the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 20.83% to 11,312 shares [2]. Market Activity - Xinjin Road has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" 10 times this year, with the most recent appearance on May 27, where it recorded a net buy of -61.1593 million CNY. The total buy amounted to 122 million CNY, accounting for 8.89% of total trading volume, while total sales reached 183 million CNY, accounting for 13.36% of total trading volume [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the overall supply - demand contradiction of caustic soda is limited, and prices may be more affected by phased restocking demand. High开工 and high production are expected to continue, and long - term supply faces pressure. New alumina projects support demand, but alumina's surplus fundamentals and low prices cap the upside of caustic soda prices. Export expectations are cautiously optimistic, and costs are supported. Attention should be paid to phased supply - demand mismatches [1]. - The price of caustic soda is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 2,400 - 2,800 yuan/ton [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 2: Third - Quarter Market Review of Caustic Soda - In the third quarter, caustic soda showed a wide - range oscillation pattern, with prices mainly in the range of 2,400 - 2,800 yuan/ton, affected by policy expectations and fundamental changes [1]. - From late June to early July, the market rose strongly, supported by stable spot prices and then driven by policy expectations. From late July to early August, the market corrected due to eased policy statements, cooled market sentiment, and weakened spot supply - demand. In mid - August, the market rebounded due to marginal improvement in fundamentals. From late August to mid - September, the market declined again after the end of phased restocking [2]. Chapter 3: Core Concerns of Caustic Soda - Caustic soda exports: As of now, exports this year are 860,000 tons more than the same period last year. Annual exports are expected to reach about 4.1 million tons, accounting for 10% - 11% of apparent demand. However, August export data was below expectations, and there are rumors of new energy process adjustments affecting demand [16]. - Alumina production and alkali - stocking rhythm: Many alumina capacities are to be put into production from the end of 2025 to early 2026, supporting caustic soda demand. But alumina's surplus fundamentals and low prices may limit caustic soda's upside and affect alumina's production progress [17]. - Supply policies and costs: Chlor - alkali comprehensive profits are high, so the possibility of active supply - side production cuts is small. However, policy expectations may have an unexpected impact on supply and cost - side raw material pricing [18]. Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook of Caustic Soda 4.1 High Profits, Continued Supply Pressure of Caustic Soda - From January to September, caustic soda production totaled 31.58 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. This year's new caustic soda capacity is estimated to be around 2.4 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 4.8% - 4.9%. By the end of the year, the capacity base may rise to 51 - 52 million tons. But actual implementation is less optimistic, with few certain new capacities in the fourth quarter [19]. - High profits limit caustic soda price increases, but there have been periods of high profits in history due to short - term supply - demand mismatches [22]. 4.2 Waiting for Alumina Production to Materialize - From the end of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026, there are still many alumina capacities to be put into production, creating caustic soda stocking demand in the fourth quarter. However, alumina's surplus situation and low prices limit caustic soda's upside. Non - aluminum demand is fragmented, and short - term restocking at low prices has some price support but does not change the supply - demand balance [25]. 4.3 Exports are Key - From January to August 2025, caustic soda exports were 2.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 47.16%, due to increased Southeast Asian demand and domestic price advantages. In the short - to - medium term, export expectations remain high, but there are rumors of overseas process adjustments affecting demand. In October, export orders improved, supporting demand [39][40].

Consumption - Automotive retail and wholesale volumes continue to rise, but year-on-year growth has marginally declined due to the low base effect from the Mid-Autumn Festival[6] - Service consumption has weakened, particularly in urban areas affected by typhoon weather, leading to a significant drop in subway ridership in first-tier cities[7] - Food and beverage prices have shown a slight recovery, with agricultural product wholesale prices increasing, but the year-on-year decline continues to widen due to high base effects from 2024[6] Investment - As of September 27, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special bonds reached CNY 3.71 trillion, with CNY 446.52 billion issued in September alone, marking the fastest issuance pace since 2020[19] - Real estate sales have seen a slight seasonal improvement, but the absolute values remain at historical lows, with new home sales in 30 cities showing a marginal year-on-year decline[19] - The asphalt construction rate has risen significantly, reaching a yearly high, while cement and steel consumption indicate slower construction progress[19] Trade and Export - Domestic export freight rates have decreased by 2.9% month-on-month, with container freight rates from Shanghai and Ningbo dropping by 7% and 8.5% respectively[27] - The manufacturing PMI readings for the US and Europe in September were 52.0 and 49.5, indicating a slight decline in overseas manufacturing activity, which may weaken demand for imports from China[27] Production and Inventory - Most industries are experiencing a decline in production, with coal consumption in coastal provinces showing a seasonal decrease[29] - Inventory levels are primarily decreasing, with significant reductions in coal inventories at ports due to increased downstream purchasing ahead of the holiday[37] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a slight recovery, with service prices in transportation, education, and healthcare increasing year-on-year, while clothing and housing prices have declined[42] - Industrial product prices are mixed, with the South China price index falling by 0.3% month-on-month, while cement prices increased by 2.5%[42] Liquidity - The central bank's net cash injection through reverse repos was CNY 640.6 billion last week, with an additional CNY 300 billion in medium-term lending facility (MLF) operations, totaling CNY 880.6 billion to support liquidity[44] - The US dollar index has risen significantly, reflecting a stronger US economy and impacting the USD/CNY exchange rate, which increased from 7.1125 to 7.1345[44]