原油2509： 1.基本面：美国与欧盟周日达成一项框架贸易协议，对欧盟大多数商品征收15%的进口关税，仅为威胁税率 的一半，从而避免了这两个盟友之间爆发更大规模的贸易战；中美两国高级谈判代表周一将在瑞典斯德哥 尔摩举行会晤，以解决作为世界前两大经济体贸易战核心的长期经济争端，旨在延长8月12日的关税临时 "休战"协议期限，避免大幅提高关税；四名OPEC+代表称，OPEC+联合部长级监督委员会不太可能在周一 开会时改变现有增产计划，并指出该联盟渴望恢复市场份额，而夏季需求正帮助吸收多余的石油供应；中 性 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-07-28原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 2.基差：7月25 ...

业内人士指出，石油期货价格的变动需要持仓资金的流动性支持，但是当前这种剧烈跌幅的背后，缺少 必要的持仓资金调整的支持。因此，今后只要疫情的恐慌性情绪一旦减弱或消退，油价将可能会有一段 时间的恢复性反弹。 据经济参考报报道，1月31日当周，石油输出国组织(OPEC)计划开会商议减产的消息短暂支撑了油价。 据接近欧佩克的消息人士透露，欧佩克希望将现行的减产协议有效期延长三个月至6月份。根据事态发 展，欧佩克可能加大减产力度。 今日(4日)24时，农历鼠年春节后首次成品油调价窗口将开启。机构指出，本轮计价周期内，国际油价 呈现下跌行情，节前原油变化率维持在负值低位。据机构测算，本次成品油价格大概率下调。 国际油价连续四周下跌 受市场恐慌情绪影响，国际原油价格上周下跌，为连续第四周下跌。数据显示，北京时间1月31日，纽 约商品交易所3月交货的轻质原油期货价格收于每桶51.56美元，跌幅达4.8%;3月交货的伦敦布伦特原油 期货价格当周下跌约4%，收于每桶58.16美元。 机构表示，中国市场作为全球最大的原油进口国，全球第二大原油消费国，此次新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情 的发生引发了市场对中国原油需求的担忧，同时引发全球投机基 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 周五国际油价回落，布伦特10合约周度跌1.13%，sc09合约周度跌0.56%。三季度旺季以来石油市 场延续了上半年的累库趋势,其中原油去库0.6%、成品油累库1.7%，OPEC+增产路径下石油市场的 供需盈余压力始终存在。美国政府有意放开雪弗龙在委内瑞拉的经营许可，委内瑞拉原油出口面临 20万桶/天左右的恢复。美日协议以利好落地后，市场对美国与欧盟、中国的贸易谈判走向存在乐观 预期，但我们认为与贸易战相关的利空风险在协议最终落地前始终存在,油价仍以震荡承压为主;8 月底、9月初伊核、俄乌协议面临欧美施压的最后期限,届时地缘犹动有望再度为市场带来支撑。 (责金属) 周五贵金属回落。近期美国经济数据体现韧性,美商务部长称8月1日关税上调最后期限不再延长。 美国与多个主要国家关税协议陆续达成，中美即将迎来新一轮谈判，超预期对抗概率较低，责金属 宽幅震荡为主。聚焦本周美联储会议鲍威尔表态是否出现边际变化。 围绕"反内卷"题材交投降温，锌市资金偏谨慎，多头高位减仓，沪锌2.3万整数关承压。宏观、资 金情绪发酵过后，市场仍将回归基本面主逻辑，锌矿端供应 ...

Core Insights - The recent sale of a luxury home in Connells Point, Sydney, by Raymond Cavanagh and his wife Kerry, has set a new record for the area, with a transaction price between AUD 17 million and AUD 18 million, significantly surpassing the previous record of AUD 8.3 million set in 2023 [1][3] - This sale also breaks the record for the Georges River region, previously held by a property in Sylvania that sold for AUD 16.3 million in 2022 [1][3] Property Details - The luxury estate is situated on a 2,168 square meter waterfront lot and is considered one of the most spacious and prestigious waterfront residences in the St George area [3] - The Cavanagh couple purchased the land in 1992 for AUD 1.4 million and have since developed it into an impressive four-bedroom, four-bathroom plantation-style mansion [3] - The mansion features world-class amenities designed for sailing enthusiasts, including a full-length dock, floating jetty, and berths capable of accommodating yachts up to 60 feet [3] Company Background - Raymond Cavanagh and his wife are directors of Caman Engineering, a significant manufacturer and supplier of pipeline flanges, heat exchangers, and pressure vessels for the oil, gas, mining, and petrochemical industries [3] - The property has also gained media attention, having been featured in the mini-series "House of Bond," which tells the story of Australian business magnate Alan Bond [3][5]

2025 年 7 月 28 日 投资咨询从业资格号: Z0015892 huangliunan021151@gtjas.com 【国际原油】 WTI9 原油期货收跌 0.87美元/桶,跌幅 1.32%,报 65.16 美元/桶;布伦特 9 月原油期货收跌 0.74 美元/桶,跌幅 1.07%,报 68.44 美元/桶; SC2509 原油期货收跌 6.70元7桶,跌幅 1.32%, 报 501.90元/桶。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 注:趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下:弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强, -2 表示最看空，2 表示最看多。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 究 1. 以色列国防部长卡茨:以色列未来可能会把目标对准伊朗最高领袖 2. 据法新社:至少8人在伊朗东南部的袭击中丧生。 3. 金十数据 7月 26日讯,当地时间 26日,伊朗东南部扎黑丹市司法机构大楼发生恐怖袭击事 件,目前尚不清楚死伤人数。(央视新闻) 金十数据7月26日讯,当地时间 7月25日,卡塔尔首相兼外交大臣穆罕默德与伊朗外长阿拉 4. 格齐通电话,重点就伊朗核问题和加沙地带局势进行了讨论。穆罕 ...

Group 1 - The US and EU have reached a trade agreement, which only addresses half of the threatened tariffs, indicating potential for further negotiations [1] - Analysts believe that the euro has significant upside potential in the current market environment [1] Group 2 - OPEC+ representatives indicated that the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) is expected to maintain the current production increase plan, which may influence future oil market sentiment [1] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index shows a bullish sentiment with 38% long positions and 62% short positions, while the S&P 500 Index has 60% long and 40% short positions [3] - The Nasdaq Index also reflects a bullish sentiment with 60% long positions and 40% short positions, whereas the Dow Jones Index shows a strong bullish sentiment with 82% long positions [3] - The Nikkei 225 Index has 60% long and 40% short positions, while the German DAX 40 Index shows a bearish sentiment with 29% long and 71% short positions [3] Group 4 - In the forex market, the euro to US dollar pair has 20% long and 80% short positions, indicating a strong bearish sentiment [3] - The euro to British pound pair shows 9% long and 91% short positions, while the euro to Japanese yen pair has 7% long and 93% short positions [3] - The Australian dollar to US dollar pair has 55% long and 45% short positions, indicating a more balanced sentiment [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the true beneficiaries of the AI revolution are not only the companies creating AI technologies but also those that effectively integrate AI into their operations to enhance efficiency and profitability, referred to as "second-order winners" [1][2][9]. Group 1: Historical Context and Examples - Historical examples illustrate that during technological revolutions, the greatest returns often come from companies that leverage new technologies rather than those that create them. For instance, the automotive industry saw more significant gains from downstream service providers than from car manufacturers [1][2]. - Gulf Refining's establishment of self-service gas stations exemplifies how companies can capitalize on technological advancements without being the creators of the technology [2]. Group 2: AI Integration in Companies - Companies like Shake Shack have successfully integrated AI and automation to enhance operational efficiency, reducing the time to prepare meals and lowering labor costs while increasing employee wages and profit margins [3]. - Ecolab's modeling indicates that it can automate approximately 50% of high-probability automation roles, leading to significant cost savings and improved profit margins without altering revenue [4]. Group 3: Chinese Companies Leveraging AI - JD Logistics has implemented the "Zhi Lang" system, which has tripled picking efficiency and significantly improved sorting accuracy, contributing to its profit growth [6]. - Ping An has effectively utilized AI in insurance processes, achieving rapid underwriting and claims processing, which has led to substantial cost reductions and enhanced customer experience [6]. Group 4: Investment Perspective - Investors are encouraged to focus on companies that have embedded AI into their operations, as these firms are likely to provide more stable returns compared to high-valuation AI technology creators [7]. - The characteristics of promising companies include labor-intensive operations that can benefit from AI cost reductions, clear and repetitive business processes, and the ability to scale AI applications effectively [7]. Group 5: Macro Economic Impact - The integration of AI is expected to reshape overall productivity in China, with projections indicating a potential GDP increase of about 8% by 2030 due to AI applications across various sectors [8]. - Companies that can quickly adapt and utilize AI to enhance efficiency are likely to continue benefiting from the efficiency dividends in the coming years [8]. Group 6: Conclusion - The article concludes that AI represents a revolution in efficiency, and investors should focus on companies that effectively integrate AI into their business models, as these "downstream" enterprises may yield better returns than those merely creating AI technologies [9].

曾经不可一世的特朗普，如今为了能源出口，对中国频频示好，这出戏码，比好莱坞大片还精彩。 曾经挥舞关税大棒，如今却低声下气"求购"，这巨大 的反差令人唏嘘。 而这出戏剧的背后，是冰冷的海关数据——2025年6月，中国对美国原油、天然气、煤炭的进口额全部归零！ 中国早已未雨绸缪，早已做好了应对准备。 一位中国能源采购商坦言："美国货？ 早就不在我们采购清单上了！" 特朗普的如意算盘彻底落空了。 眼看着能源企业叫苦连天，特朗普终于坐不住了。 他含糊其辞地表示"不会太久"，这暗指他正被300亿美元的半年损失 逼得走投无路。 中国曾是美国能源最大的买家，2024年购买了价值740亿美元的原油和天然气。 如今，这块"肥肉"不翼而飞，美国的贸易逆差反而扩大 到4980亿美元。 更令人讽刺的是，美国页岩油革命正试图冲击"全球最大能源出口国"的宝座，却被自身的关税政策狠狠地绊了一跤。 中美经贸谈判依然暗流涌动。 下周，中美将在瑞典重启经贸谈判，中国副总理何立峰将率领代表团出席。 然而，美国财长耶伦却突然插手，声称要讨 论"中国购买俄伊石油资助战争"的问题——此举无疑激怒了中方，中方回应道："我们做生意，与你的地缘政治有何关系？ ...

Group 1 - Oil traders are facing a tense situation as oil prices remain around $70 per barrel despite warnings of a potential market weakness from late this year until 2026 [1] - Energy giant Total (TTE.US) has warned of an oversupply issue as OPEC+ gradually lifts production cuts, while global economic growth slowdown is dragging down demand [1][4] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) have raised their forecasts for oil supply surplus next year, with IEA predicting a surplus of approximately 2 million barrels per day [1][4] Group 2 - A potential oversupply could help alleviate inflation and impact high-cost oil producers, which may please U.S. President Trump, who has called for lower oil prices [4] - Current key oil storage inventories remain low, reflecting a tight supply market, and refining margins for crude oil are significantly above seasonal norms, supporting ongoing demand [4] - The U.S. government forecasts a global oil supply increase of about 2.1 million barrels per day in Q4 compared to Q1, marking the largest quarterly increase since February [4] Group 3 - Signs of strong demand persist, with Vitol Group reporting a steady rise in jet fuel demand and U.S. weekly crude oil demand data reaching a new high for the year [7] - Historical data shows that demand forecasts are often revised upwards, suggesting that the anticipated oversupply may be smaller than expected [7] - From 2012 to 2024, IEA's demand forecasts have been adjusted upwards by an average of about 500,000 barrels per day [7] Group 4 - Despite the strong demand, JPMorgan's global commodities strategy head Natasha Kaneva warns that a significant oversupply may become evident once summer demand weakens [9] - Kaneva emphasizes that supply is increasing and inventory growth will eventually be reflected in visible stocks in OECD countries, such as the U.S., which are not yet priced into the market [9]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a mixed performance across various sectors in Q2 2025, with technology showing strong potential for exceeding expectations, while consumer sectors are experiencing deterioration. The financial sector is performing well, and industrial sectors are seeing varied results based on sub-segments [2][5][6]. Group 1: Technology Sector - The technology sector is expected to outperform in Q2 2025, driven by strong AI infrastructure demand and IT spending. The communication and software segments are likely to see significant growth, while the consumer electronics segment is expected to meet company guidance due to seasonal factors [3][8][13]. - AI infrastructure is projected to be a key growth driver, with companies in this space likely to revise their revenue guidance upwards for 2025 [8][13]. Group 2: Industrial Sector - The industrial sector is experiencing overall recovery, with the MSCI global capital goods index up 21% year-to-date. However, performance is mixed across sub-segments, with discrete automation showing improvement while process automation faces pressure due to high base effects [4][17]. - The U.S. power equipment demand remains strong, but major suppliers may not exceed expectations due to reliance on past order volumes [23][24]. Group 3: Consumer Sector - The consumer sector is facing challenges, particularly in discretionary spending, with notable declines in sectors like luxury goods and apparel. Essential goods are showing more resilience, but overall momentum remains weak [5][41][44]. - The automotive sector is seeing mixed results, with traditional automakers performing well in the U.S. and Europe, while electric vehicle penetration is under pressure [32][33]. Group 4: Financial Sector - The financial sector in the U.S. has recorded positive absolute and relative returns in the first half of 2025, driven by earnings improvements and regulatory easing. The outlook for the second half remains optimistic [6][70]. Group 5: Mining and Commodities - The mining sector, particularly gold and copper, has shown strong performance in Q2 2025, with gold prices reaching historical highs. The agricultural sector is stable, while the chemical sector has downgraded its outlook due to currency headwinds and weak demand [7][74][91]. Group 6: Regional Performance - U.S. companies are benefiting from a weaker dollar, while European firms face headwinds from currency fluctuations. Japanese companies are under pressure from weak domestic growth [2][5].