1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the fundamentals, basis, inventory, market trends, and positions of crude oil. It indicates that due to the easing statements from various parties, negative factors have been released, but if the "blockade" of the Strait persists until the end of the month, crude oil prices may still rise. It suggests an operating range of 750 - 770 for SC2605 and waiting for opportunities to short at high prices in the long - term [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Trump warned Israel not to attack Iran's gas infrastructure. The US Treasury Secretary said the US would not attack Iran's energy infrastructure, may lift sanctions on Iranian oil, and release strategic reserves to suppress oil prices. The situation is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: On March 19, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $166.95 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $107.51 per barrel. The basis was 25.72 yuan per barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude oil inventory for the week ending March 13 increased by 6.556 million barrels (expected increase of 73,000 barrels), EIA inventory increased by 6.156 million barrels (expected increase of 383,000 barrels), and Cushing area inventory increased by 944,000 barrels. Shanghai crude oil futures inventory as of March 18 was 3.511 million barrels, unchanged. This is bearish [3]. - **Market Trends**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the average, which is bullish [3]. - **Positions**: As of March 10, the long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil increased, which is bullish [3]. - **Expectation**: Trump asked Israel to stop attacking Iranian energy facilities, and the US plans to release strategic reserves and lift sanctions on Iranian and Russian oil to increase supply and stabilize oil prices. Crude oil prices dropped significantly in the second half of the night, but if the Strait remains "blocked" until the end of the month, prices may rise. It is recommended to operate in the range of 750 - 770 for SC2605 and wait for opportunities to short at high prices in the long - term [3]. 3.2 Recent News - The US may lift sanctions on about 130 - 140 million barrels of Iranian "floating oil" in the next few days. The US will use Iranian oil to lower prices and will not conduct financial intervention in the futures market but increase physical supply [5]. - The IEA announced that Japan, Canada, and South Korea will be the main contributors to the large - scale emergency oil reserve release. A total of 426 million barrels of oil are being released into the market, with 172 million barrels from the US [5]. - After an attack by Iran, Saudi Aramco briefly suspended crude oil loading at the Yanbu port in the Red Sea on Thursday, and the port has since resumed operations [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Difficulty in Strait passage and deterioration of the Middle East situation [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Trump's intention to end the war quickly and the release of strategic reserves by IEA member countries [6]. - **Market Driver**: Pay attention to geopolitical changes in the short - term, and wait for the situation to ease before entering the market for reversal trading in the long - term [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: Brent crude oil settlement price increased from $102.92 to $103.78 (up 0.84%), WTI crude oil from $95.46 to $95.55 (up 0.09%), SC crude oil from 751.2 to 803.4 (up 6.95%), and Oman crude oil from $153.12 to $166.96 (up 9.04%) [7]. - **Spot Market**: The price of UK Brent Dtd increased from $112.85 to $117.49 (up 4.11%), WTI decreased from $96.32 to $96.14 (down 0.19%), Oman crude oil increased from $156.02 to $166.95 (up 7.01%), Shengli crude oil increased from $100.92 to $110.63 (up 9.62%), and Dubai crude oil increased from $155.69 to $166.97 (up 7.25%) [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API inventory as of March 13 was 472.774 million barrels, an increase of 6.556 million barrels; EIA inventory as of March 13 was 449.259 million barrels, an increase of 6.156 million barrels [3][11][13]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of March 10, the net long position was 228,015, an increase of 55,865 [17]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of March 10, the net long position was 351,032, an increase of 65,438 [19].

Group 1 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced that its member countries have agreed to release 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves to the market, marking the largest coordinated release to date [2] - The released reserves will primarily consist of crude oil, with refined products being mainly allocated to Europe, while countries in the Americas will increase production to supplement market supply [2] - The decision to release reserves was made in response to global oil supply tensions caused by military actions by the US and Israel against Iran, which have escalated the situation in the Middle East [2] Group 2 - Following the announcement, Brent crude oil futures rose above $116 per barrel, and prices for natural gas and oil in Europe also saw significant increases [2] - The IEA indicated that the specific distribution ratio of crude oil and refined products, as well as the scale of supply from public reserves, may still be adjusted as countries refine their respective shares [2]

Core Viewpoint - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has announced the release of 400 million barrels from strategic oil reserves by its member countries to address global oil supply tensions caused by military actions involving the US and Israel against Iran, marking the largest coordinated release to date [1] Group 1 - The release of strategic oil reserves will primarily consist of crude oil, with refined products being mainly allocated to Europe [1] - American countries are expected to increase production to supplement market supply during this period [1] - The specific distribution ratio of crude oil and refined products, as well as the scale of supply from public reserves, may still be adjusted as countries refine their respective shares [1]

Group 1: Shipping Derivatives Data - Current values and previous values of various shipping freight rate indices are provided, including SCFI - East US, SCFI - West US, SCFIS - West US, SCFI - Northwest Europe, CCFI, SCFI - Mediterranean, and SCFIS - Northwest Europe. The corresponding percentage changes are 14.85%, 1.70%, 15.93%, 14.50%, 11.43%, -1.07%, 0.71%, and 12.97% respectively [1][2] Group 2: Market News - Iran's energy facilities were attacked, leading to a significant increase in crude oil prices. Iran targeted multiple countries' energy facilities and shut down some gas fields. Iran also launched a new attack on Qatar's industrial city of Ras Laffan and set it on fire. Asian countries are buying large amounts of Russian oil, and the price of Far - East crude oil has a premium over international oil prices. Reuters reported that Iran attacked the Samref refinery in Yanbu Port, Saudi Arabia [3] Group 3: Market Review and Strategy for Container Shipping European Line (EC) - The market review shows a strong - biased oscillation [4] - The logic is that today's EC container shipping European line on the disk first rose and then fell, following the Middle - East geopolitical situation. The fundamentals in April are relatively weak. Although Maersk's April quotation has been raised to $2700, attention should be paid to whether the quotation of the PA alliance with a large spot exposure will affect the entire index [5] - The strategy is to wait and see [6]

Group 1: Oil Price Movement - International oil prices have dropped significantly, with WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil falling over 3%, priced at $92.53 and $100.58 per barrel respectively [1] - Domestic commodity futures also saw declines, with major contracts for crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil dropping over 7% [1] - A collective downturn was observed in A-share oil and gas concept stocks, with companies like Potential Energy and China Petroleum experiencing declines of nearly 10% and over 3% respectively [1] Group 2: Iran's Military and Diplomatic Stance - Iran's parliament spokesperson stated that there are currently no plans for negotiations with the U.S., claiming that any talk of ceasefire is misinformation aimed at controlling energy prices [3] - Iran has reportedly achieved significant military successes, claiming to have dealt decisive blows to its adversaries [3] - Israeli military reports indicate that approximately 85% of Iran's air defense systems and 60% of its ballistic missile launchers have been destroyed [2][6] Group 3: International Maritime Organization's Position - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) emphasized that naval escorts are not a sustainable long-term solution to the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, advocating for a peaceful resolution to avoid collateral damage to shipping [9] - The IMO reported that since the large-scale military actions against Iran began, at least 7 seafarers have died in attacks on commercial vessels in the region [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, the market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical conflicts, policy changes, and supply - demand dynamics. Different sectors show different trends, and investors are advised to be cautious and make decisions based on specific market conditions [5][6][7] - For some sectors, there are short - term uncertainties and potential risks due to geopolitical conflicts, while others are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals and cost factors [9][13][15] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fixed - Income (Treasury Bonds) - On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year主力合约 rose by 0.10%, 0.07%, 0.06%, and 0.03% respectively [5] - The central bank conducted 130 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 115 billion yuan on that day [5] - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The market is expected to face some pressure, and caution is advised [6][7] 3.2 Equity Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures主力合约 fell by 1.31%, 1.29%, 2.37%, and 1.90% respectively [9] - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. Asset valuations are low, and there is room for repair. However, due to the high uncertainty of the Iran situation, market volatility is expected to increase, and it is recommended to wait on the sidelines [9] 3.3 Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the gold主力合约 fell by 4.63%, and the silver主力合约 fell by 9.99% [11] - The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, due to the high uncertainty of the Iran situation, market volatility is expected to increase, and it is recommended to wait on the sidelines [12][13] 3.4 Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. In the short term, the Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. In the medium term, prices are dominated by industry supply - demand logic. Rebar prices may rebound, but the space may be limited. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - level long - position opportunities and manage positions [15] 3.5 Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. In the short term, the Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. With the end of key meetings, iron ore demand may increase, but the effect may be limited. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - level long - position opportunities and manage positions [17][18] 3.6 Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures declined slightly. In the short term, the Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. Coking coal supply may increase, and demand is weak. Coke supply is stable, and demand may increase. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - level buying opportunities and manage positions [20] 3.7 Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, the manganese silicon主力合约 rose by 0.10%, and the silicon iron主力合约 fell by 0.34%. The cost of ferroalloys is fluctuating upward, and the supply is still in a surplus state. After a rapid short - term price rebound, investors can consider taking profits on long positions [22][24] 3.8 Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly due to the intensification of the US - Israel - Iran war. Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of US oil and gas rigs increased. However, Israel's decision not to attack Iranian energy facilities and the joint statement of six countries to escort the Strait of Hormuz led to a correction in crude oil prices. It is recommended to wait on the sidelines for the crude oil主力合约 [25][26][27] 3.9 Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the prices of PP in Hangzhou and LLDPE in Yuyao rose. In the short term, polyolefins show a contraction trend. In the long term, the supply pressure will gradually increase, and the demand shows the characteristics of "rising production but cautious procurement". It is recommended to wait on the sidelines [28][29] 3.10 Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber主力合约 rose by 1.17%. The cost support is weakening, and it is expected to maintain a strong - side shock pattern. Attention should be paid to the implementation of plant maintenance, crude oil price trends, and changes in tire export orders [30][31] 3.11 Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the natural rubber主力合约 fell by 2.51%, and the 20 - grade rubber主力合约 fell by 2.08%. The Middle East conflict increases the cost of synthetic rubber, strengthening the substitution demand for natural rubber. However, the expected new rubber supply and slow demand recovery limit the price increase. It is expected to show a wide - range shock pattern [33][35] 3.12 PVC - On the previous trading day, the PVC主力合约 rose by 0.39%. The short - term cost support is strong, and the price shows a strong - side shock pattern, but the upside is restricted by high inventory. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation rhythm and demand recovery strength in the medium term [36][37] 3.13 Urea - On the previous trading day, the urea主力合约 fell by 0.32%. The current market is facing high supply and policy constraints. The demand is weak, and the downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of export policies and the demand connection after April [38][39] 3.14 PX - On the previous trading day, the PX2605主力合约 fell. The PXN spread and short - process profit were slightly compressed. The supply is expected to be tight, and the downstream demand is gradually recovering. PX is expected to enter the de - stocking stage. However, due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation, the price may fluctuate and there is a risk of correction [40] 3.15 PTA - On the previous trading day, the PTA2605主力合约 fell. The processing fee was adjusted, and the downstream demand was weak. The price is mainly affected by the cost side. Due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation, it is recommended to operate with caution [41] 3.16 Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol主力合约 rose. The supply decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The short - term trend is stronger than other polyester varieties, but due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation, caution is needed [42] 3.17 Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2606主力合约 rose slightly. The supply is gradually increasing, and the terminal demand is stable. The low inventory and strong cost may provide support. It is recommended to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, plant dynamics, and downstream factory resumption progress [43][44][45] 3.18 Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, the bottle chips 2605主力合约 fell. The cost support weakened, and the polyester demand was weak. Due to the uncertainty of the Middle East situation, it is recommended to participate with caution [46] 3.19 Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, the soda ash主力 2605 fell. The supply is at a high level, the inventory is shrinking, and the downstream demand is weak. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate and adjust, and the fluctuation range is expected to narrow [47][48] 3.20 Glass - On the previous trading day, the glass主力 2605 fell. The production line is shrinking, the inventory reduction speed is slowing down, and the downstream demand recovery is slow. The cost pressure is still there, and the futures price may fluctuate [49] 3.21 Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, the caustic soda主力 2605 rose slightly. The supply decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The price of alumina is rising, and the demand for caustic soda is expected to be good. Attention should be paid to overseas plant dynamics, export orders, domestic inventory changes, and plant maintenance progress [50][51][52] 3.22 Pulp - On the previous trading day, the pulp主力 2605 rose. The port inventory is decreasing, and the downstream demand is weak. The market sentiment is expected to stabilize. The fluctuation risk of softwood pulp is relatively high, and hardwood pulp is relatively stable [53][54] 3.23 Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, the lithium carbonate主力合约 fell. The global lithium resource supply - demand balance is being reshaped, and the supply is in a tight balance. The demand in the consumer end is improving, and the inventory is gradually decreasing. The price has short - term support, but the short - term fluctuation may increase [55] 3.24 Copper - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper主力合约 fell. The geopolitical conflict affects the market sentiment, and the supply pressure is large in the short term. However, the downstream demand is improving, which provides support for the price. The copper price is expected to run weakly [56][57][58] 3.25 Aluminum - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum主力合约 and the alumina主力合约 fell. The supply pressure of alumina is increasing, and the cost support is strengthening. The aluminum production in the Middle East is affected, and the domestic consumption is recovering. The aluminum price is in a phased correction [59][60] 3.26 Zinc - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc主力合约 fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is affected by the geopolitical conflict. The social inventory is increasing, and the zinc price is under pressure [61][62] 3.27 Lead - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead主力合约 fell. The production of primary lead is increasing, and the demand for lead - acid batteries is recovering. However, the geopolitical risk affects exports, and the lead price is under pressure [63][64] 3.28 Tin - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai tin主力合约 fell. The geopolitical conflict affects the price, and the supply is gradually easing. The demand in the emerging fields provides support, and the inventory is decreasing. The tin price has support below, but attention should be paid to the risk of price fluctuation [65][66] 3.29 Nickel - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel futures主力合约 rose. The geopolitical conflict affects the price, and the nickel ore supply is expected to be tight. The downstream demand is weak, and the refined nickel is in a surplus state. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro - events [67] 3.30 Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell, and the soybean oil main contract rose. The Brazilian soybean harvest is approaching 60%, and the high oil price provides support. The domestic soybean supply may be tight in the short term and relatively loose in the medium term. It is recommended to wait and see [68][69] 3.31 Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil closed higher. The export volume increased, and the domestic inventory is at a relatively high level. It is recommended to consider reducing or closing long positions [70][71] 3.32 Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed price rose. The domestic import policy has changed, and the inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil shows different trends. It is recommended to wait and see [72][73] 3.33 Cotton - On the previous trading day, the domestic Zhengzhou cotton fell slightly. The global cotton production is expected to decrease in the new season, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The domestic supply is expected to be tight in the long term, and the cotton price is expected to run strongly in the long term [74][75][76] 3.34 Sugar - On the previous trading day, the domestic Zhengzhou sugar rebounded slightly. The foreign sugar production is lower than expected, and the domestic supply is sufficient. The increase in oil price will affect the sugar - making ratio in Brazil, and the long - term sugar price bottom is expected to rise [77][78] 3.35 Apple - On the previous trading day, the apple futures rose significantly. With the peak of Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking, the demand is released, and the inventory is decreasing. The apple market is expected to run strongly [79] 3.36 Live Pigs - On the previous trading day, the live pig主力合约 fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to hold short positions [80][81] 3.37 Eggs - On the previous trading day, the egg主力合约 fell. The egg supply is expected to be at a high level in March, and the supply improvement in the far - month is worrying. It is recommended to hold short positions in the far - month lightly [82] 3.38 Corn and Corn Starch - On the previous trading day, the corn主力合约 rose slightly, and the corn starch主力合约 was flat. The domestic corn supply and demand are basically balanced. The demand for corn starch is improving, but the supply is abundant. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of out - of - the - money put options when the price rises sharply [83][84][85] 3.39 Logs - On the previous trading day, the log主力 2605 rose. The supply of New Zealand logs is increasing, and the downstream demand is improving. The cost pressure is increasing, and the futures price is in a high - level shock. Attention should be paid to the external market quotation, shipping dynamics, and downstream consumption [86][87]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index closing at 25,500.58 points and 8,695.88 points, down 2.0% and 1.6% respectively[1] - Total trading volume in Hong Kong stocks reached HKD 306.2 billion, an increase of 27.4% from the previous day's HKD 240.4 billion, indicating some investors' urgency to reduce holdings[1] Sector Performance - The energy sector index rose by 2.8%, while materials, information technology, and real estate sectors fell by 7.7%, 4.5%, and 3.1% respectively[1] - Among blue-chip stocks, CNOOC (883 HK) and Xiaomi Group (1810 HK) led gains, rising by 4.5% and 3.4% respectively; while Zijin Mining (2899 HK) and Tencent Holdings (700 HK) saw declines of 7.1% and 6.8%[1] Economic Implications - Ongoing attacks on Middle Eastern energy production facilities are exacerbating supply constraints, leading to sustained high commodity prices, which may increase global inflation and the likelihood of interest rate hikes[2] - Gold prices have dropped from USD 5,200 to below USD 4,700, negatively impacting metal prices[2] Real Estate and Investment Strategies - The real estate market, particularly in Hong Kong, is expected to be affected by interest rate fluctuations, with major developers like Henderson Land (12 HK), Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK), and New World Development (17 HK) experiencing declines of 2.4% to 4.1%[2] - Defensive investors may consider high-dividend Hong Kong stocks like Hong Kong Telecom (6823 HK) amid market volatility[2] U.S. Economic Data - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week was 205,000, lower than the previous week's 213,000 and market expectations of 215,000[3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on March 20, 2026, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, showing the basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of these varieties [1][6][23][29][40][51] Summary by Directory 1. Power Coal - The report shows the basis and spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of power coal from March 13 to March 19, 2026. The basis values are - 72.4, - 78.4, - 78.4, - 78.4, - 72.4 respectively, and the spreads are all 0.0 [1][2] 2. Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - The basis of INE crude oil, fuel oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are presented. For example, on March 19, the basis of INE crude oil is 336.64, the basis of fuel oil is 199.69, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt is 0.1733 [7] Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are provided. For instance, on March 19, the basis of rubber is - 90, and that of methanol is 35.5 [12] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rubber is - 650 [13] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are shown. On March 19, the LLDPE - PVC spread is 2979 [13] 3. Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, 9(10) - 5 month) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rebar is - 58.0 [22] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are provided. On March 19, the rebar/iron ore ratio is 3.88 [22] - **Basis**: The basis of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are given. On March 19, the basis of rebar is 95.0 [23] 4. Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The domestic basis of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are presented. On March 19, the basis of copper is 1140 [30] London Market - The LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on March 19, 2026 are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper is (100.12) [35] 5. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are given. On March 19, the basis of soybeans No.1 is - 216 [41] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans No.1 is 27 [41] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are shown. On March 19, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio is 2.03 [41] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are provided. On March 19, the basis of CSI 300 is - 3.35 [52] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given. For example, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 is - 25.2 [52]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses significant fluctuations in the global energy market, particularly focusing on the recent volatility in oil prices due to geopolitical developments and U.S. policy statements regarding Iran and Israel [2][3][4]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - International oil prices experienced a sharp decline, with WTI crude futures dropping 0.19% after previously rising over 5%, while Brent crude futures saw a slight increase of 1.18% after a peak increase of nearly 11% [4]. - As of the latest updates, WTI and Brent crude futures continued to decline, with respective decreases of 1.78% and 0.33% [4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israel would "comply" with U.S. President Trump's request to pause attacks on Iranian energy facilities, which contributed to a reduction in market tensions [3][6]. - Trump's comments indicated that the U.S. would not attack Iran's energy infrastructure and suggested a potential easing of sanctions on Iranian oil, which could stabilize oil prices [6][8]. Group 3: U.S. Treasury Statements - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen mentioned that the U.S. has allowed Iranian oil to continue flowing through the Gulf and may lift sanctions on Iranian oil in the coming days [8][9]. - Yellen also indicated that the U.S. could release strategic oil reserves to help suppress rising oil prices, with approximately 130 million barrels of Iranian oil potentially entering the market if sanctions are relaxed [10][11]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Predictions - Market analysts expressed uncertainty about the duration of the recent oil price surge, with some suggesting that prices may not return to pre-conflict levels even if the conflict ends [7]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that sustained high energy prices could lead to increased global inflation and economic slowdown, with oil prices having risen over 50% and surpassing $100 per barrel [11][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy and chemical industry continues to be in a pattern where prices are more likely to rise than fall due to the damage of more energy infrastructure and geopolitical tensions. The supply of energy is disrupted, and although the downstream demand is weak, it is not the main contradiction at present. The overall situation of the chemical industry is expected to maintain a strong and volatile pattern, led by crude oil [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Overall Situation**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is tense, affecting the supply of energy and chemical products. The supply of energy facilities is at risk, and the market is worried about inflation and the tightening of central bank liquidity policies. The stock markets in China and the United States have declined. The damage to Qatar's LNG export capacity has changed the narrative of LNG oversupply. The chemical industry chain is in a process where upstream production decreases and downstream and terminal production gradually recovers [1]. - **Specific Varieties** - **Crude Oil**: The risk of energy facility operation in the Middle East remains, and the shortage pattern continues. The low traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz, the potential release of Iranian floating storage is limited, and the inventory pressure of Persian Gulf countries may lead to further production cuts. The price is expected to be volatile and strong [8]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price fluctuates at a high level, waiting for the geopolitical situation to become clear. The refinery profit has deteriorated, and the inventory is accumulating. The long - term valuation is expected to decline [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Supported by the geopolitical situation, it fluctuates at a high level. The high import dependence and strong geopolitical attributes push up the price, but the long - term demand is negatively affected by the substitution of natural gas and photovoltaic [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Follows the crude oil to fluctuate at a high level. It has product attributes, and the valuation has been repaired. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand and green energy substitution [11]. - **PX**: The cost support is strong, but the increase is limited due to the drag of polyester demand. It is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range consolidation [12]. - **PTA**: The device restarts unexpectedly, and the supply - demand margin is under pressure. The price is expected to follow the upstream cost to fluctuate at a high level [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply further declines, and the supply - demand margin improves. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [19]. - **Benzene**: Driven by the geopolitical situation, it fluctuates strongly. The supply is reduced, and the demand is acceptable. The inventory is expected to decrease in advance [16]. - **Styrene**: The geopolitical situation brings positive effects on supply and demand, and it fluctuates strongly. The supply may be reduced, and there is an expected increase in export demand [17]. - **Short Fiber**: The upstream and downstream are in a strong game, and the transactions are highly differentiated. The price follows the cost to fluctuate at a high level [20]. - **Bottle Chip**: The intraday transaction fades, and the price difference is large. The price follows the upstream raw material to fluctuate [22]. - **Methanol**: Affected by the geopolitical conflict, it fluctuates within a range. The inventory decreases, and the demand from the MTO industry is expected to increase [25]. - **Urea**: The commercial storage is released in a concentrated manner, and it is stable and slightly weak. The supply is stable at a high level, and the agricultural demand support weakens slightly [26]. - **LLDPE**: The refinery operation rate declines, and it should be viewed with caution. The raw material end is supported by the geopolitical situation, but the downstream demand is affected by price increases [30]. - **PP**: The geopolitical situation boosts the support of the raw material end, and it fluctuates. The raw material cost provides support, and the spot trading is average [31]. - **PL**: The refinery operation rate declines, and the downstream is still under pressure, fluctuating. The downstream buying demand recovers, but the powder profit is under pressure [32]. - **PVC**: The geopolitical disturbance still exists, and it is cautiously optimistic. The supply decreases, the inventory is reduced, and the cost of ethylene - based PVC increases [33]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply decreases, and it is cautiously optimistic. The overseas and domestic production reduction scale expands, and the export improves [33]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring** - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. have different changes, which reflect the market's expectations for different periods of each variety [35]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of different varieties also show different trends, which can help analyze the market supply - demand relationship and price trends [36]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The cross - variety spreads between different varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc. change, which can reflect the relative price relationship between different varieties [37]. - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring** - Although the specific content of each variety in this part is not detailed in the text, it is expected to focus on the basis and spread analysis of specific chemical varieties to help investors understand the price relationship and market trends of different varieties.