Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints On February 25, affected by the tax period and month - end factors, the capital market showed a tight balance, the bond market fluctuated and adjusted, the main indices of the convertible bond market showed mixed performance, individual convertible bonds were evenly split between gains and losses, yields of US Treasury bonds across various maturities generally increased, and the yields of 10 - year government bonds of major European economies showed divergent trends [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - President Xi Jinping met with German Chancellor Merz, emphasizing the importance of Sino - German relations [3] - The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar rose 93 basis points, and the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed 177 basis points higher [3] - Shanghai issued the "Seven Measures for the Property Market", further reducing housing purchase restrictions [4] - Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Paul Chan announced the 2026/27 budget, stating Hong Kong's plans to cooperate with the mainland on financial development [4] 3.1.2 International News - The US Trade Representative said the "global import tariff" rate on some countries might rise from 10% to 15% or higher [5] 3.1.3 Commodities - WTI April crude oil futures fell 0.32%, Brent April crude oil futures rose 0.11%, spot gold rose 0.52%, and a technical glitch at CME interrupted natural gas and metal futures trading [6] 3.2 Capital Market 3.2.1 Open - Market Operations On February 25, the central bank conducted 409.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 9.5 billion yuan after 400 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [8] 3.2.2 Capital Interest Rates Affected by the tax period and month - end factors, the capital market was in a tight balance. DR001 rose 1.66bp to 1.384%, and DR007 rose 4.79bp to 1.507%. Other interest rates also showed various changes [9][10] 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - Rate Bonds - Due to the stock market rise and rumors about Shanghai's real estate, the bond market fluctuated and adjusted. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250022 rose 1.40bp, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250220 rose 1.35bp [12] - Multiple bonds were issued, with details such as issue scale, winning bid yield, and multiples provided [13] 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - Five industrial bonds had a trading price deviation of over 10%, with some falling and one rising significantly [13] - Multiple credit - related events occurred, such as debt transfer, extension of consent solicitation period, and being listed as a dishonest被执行人 [16] 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - The A - share market rose, and the convertible bond market fluctuated narrowly. The CSI Convertible Bond Index and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rose, while the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index fell slightly. Individual convertible bonds were evenly split between gains and losses [17] - Some convertible bonds had significant price changes, and there were events such as new listings, proposed downward adjustment of the conversion price, and early redemption announcements [21] 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - In the US bond market, except for the 5 - year Treasury bond yield remaining unchanged, yields of other maturities generally rose. The yield spreads of some maturities narrowed, and the break - even inflation rate of 10 - year TIPS rose [22][23][24] - In the European bond market, the yields of 10 - year government bonds of major European economies showed divergent trends [25] - The daily price changes of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds were provided, with some rising and some falling [27]

Report Overview The report is a macro monthly report from Hualian Futures, covering various aspects of the economy including foreign exchange, real estate, prices, trade, investment, and economic indicators in China and the US. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Foreign Exchange**: After the Spring Festival, the RMB strengthened against the US dollar, driven by both external (Fed's rate - cut cycle and US policy uncertainty) and internal (resilient domestic economy and post - Spring Festival corporate settlement demand) factors. The central bank adjusted the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio to prevent rapid RMB appreciation [7]. - **Real Estate**: Shanghai introduced new real estate policies in February 2026, which are expected to help the Shanghai real estate market stabilize and recover first, leading the repair of first - tier cities [9]. - **Prices**: In January 2026, China's CPI showed a mild recovery and PPI continued to repair, with clear positive signals in core indicators [11]. - **Finance**: In January 2026, China's new social financing aggregate had an unexpected good start, with a credit structure characterized by strong consumption and weak mortgages, and an increase in M1 driving the activation of currency liquidity [13]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Monthly Viewpoint and Strategy - **Foreign Exchange**: The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar reached a new high. The RMB's appreciation was driven by external factors such as the Fed's rate - cut cycle and internal factors like the resilient domestic economy. The central bank adjusted the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio from 20% to 0 to balance the foreign exchange market [7]. - **Real Estate**: Shanghai issued new real estate policies in February 2026, including shortening the social security requirement for non - Shanghai residents to buy houses, increasing the provident fund loan limit, and relaxing the loan - set recognition. The national real estate market is still in an adjustment period, and Shanghai is expected to recover first [9]. - **Prices**: In January 2026, China's CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year, with food prices down 0.7% and non - food prices up 0.4%. PPI decreased by 1.4% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing [11]. - **Finance**: In January 2026, China's new social financing aggregate was 7.22 trillion yuan, with government bonds being the main driving force. Credit data showed a structural differentiation, with strong consumer loans and weak mortgage loans. M1 - M2 scissors - difference narrowed, indicating more active currency liquidity [13]. 3.2 National Economic Accounting - **GDP Growth**: From 2023 - 2025, the GDP quarterly year - on - year growth rate showed fluctuations. Different industries had different growth rates, with the information transmission, software and information technology services and the leasing and business services industries showing relatively high growth [16]. - **Contribution of Three Industries**: The contributions of the three industries to the constant - price GDP quarterly year - on - year growth and the GDP quarterly year - on - year growth rate varied over time [17]. 3.3 Industry Data - **Industry Growth**: The growth rate of the industrial added value of different industries showed differences. For example, the automobile manufacturing, railway, ship, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing industries had relatively high growth rates [30][34]. - **Industrial Output**: The output of major industrial products such as crude oil, coal, and steel also showed certain trends. For instance, the output of crude oil and steel fluctuated over time [36]. - **Electricity Consumption**: In November 2025, China's total social electricity consumption was 835.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. The growth rate of high - energy - consuming industries in the secondary industry slowed down, while high - tech and equipment manufacturing maintained a high growth rate of 6% - 10% [45]. - **Industrial Profits**: In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 7.3982 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. Different industries had different profit situations, with the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry having a significant increase in profit [49]. - **Industrial Inventory**: At the end of 2025, the accounts receivable of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 27.43 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%. The finished - product inventory was 6.73 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.9%, and the actual inventory growth rate after excluding price factors was about 5.8% [59]. 3.4 Price Index - **CPI**: In January 2026, China's CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year. Food prices decreased by 0.7%, and non - food prices increased by 0.4%. Different CPI sub - items had different price changes [66]. - **PPI**: In January 2026, China's PPI decreased by 1.4% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing. The prices of production materials and living materials both showed certain changes [74]. 3.5 Real Estate - **New Residential Prices**: In January 2026, the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, with Shanghai being an exception with a 4.2% increase. Second - and third - tier cities also saw price declines [85]. - **Second - hand Residential Prices**: In January 2026, the sales prices of second - hand residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 7.6% year - on - year. Second - and third - tier cities also had price declines [89]. 3.6 Foreign Trade and Investment - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, China's total import and export value was 601.42 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 6.24%. Exports were 357.78 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%, and imports were 243.64 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 5.7% [99]. - **Key Commodity Exports and Imports**: The export and import amounts of key commodities such as agricultural products, industrial raw materials, and mechanical and electrical products showed different trends over time [106][107]. 3.7 Fixed - Asset Investment - **Total Fixed - Asset Investment**: In 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 48.5186 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. Different industries had different investment growth rates, with the secondary industry having a 2.5% increase and the third industry having a 7.4% decrease [119]. - **Real Estate Investment**: In 2025, the national real estate development investment was 8.2788 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The construction area, new construction area, completion area, sales area, and sales amount of real estate all showed declines [127][131][135]. 3.8 Domestic Trade - **Retail Sales**: The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of service retail sales and social consumer goods retail sales showed certain trends. The retail sales of different industries also had different growth rates [163][170]. 3.9 Transportation - **Freight and Passenger Transport**: The transportation volumes of different freight and passenger transport modes showed different trends. The traffic flow of subways in nine major cities and the investment in transportation fixed assets also had certain characteristics [173][174][176]. 3.10 Banking and Currency - **Social Financing**: The new social financing scale and its components showed different trends over time. The stock of social financing scale and its components also had different year - on - year growth rates [184][185]. - **Credit**: The new RMB loans and their components, including short - term and long - term loans, household loans, and enterprise loans, showed different trends [194]. - **Monetary Liquidity**: In January, the M1 growth rate declined significantly, and the M2 growth rate increased slightly. The M2 - M1 scissors - difference expanded to 4.7%, indicating a slowdown in capital activation [200]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The central bank emphasized reasonable interest rate control to promote a stable decline in the financing cost of the real economy. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar and the US dollar index showed certain trends, and the foreign exchange and gold reserves increased [210][221]. 3.11 Fiscal and Employment - **Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure**: The general public fiscal revenue and expenditure of the central and local governments showed different trends. Different types of fiscal revenues and expenditures also had different changes [236][237]. - **Employment**: The number of newly - added urban jobs and the urban survey unemployment rate showed certain trends [241]. 3.12 Business Surveys - **Global Manufacturing PMI**: The global manufacturing PMI showed certain fluctuations from 2025 - 2026. Different countries and regions had different PMI values [246]. - **China Manufacturing PMI**: In January 2026, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a seasonal decline of 0.8 percentage points. Different sub - indicators such as production, new orders, and prices showed different trends [249]. - **China Non - Manufacturing PMI**: In January 2026, China's non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.4%, a decline of 0.8 percentage points. The construction and service industries both saw a decline in business activity, with different degrees of industry differentiation [257]. 3.13 US Macroeconomy - **GDP Growth**: The US real GDP环比折年率 showed fluctuations from 2023 - 2025. Different components such as private consumption, investment, and government spending had different contributions to GDP growth [264]. - **Employment**: The number of newly - added non - farm jobs and the unemployment rate in the US showed certain trends [265]. - **Treasury Yields**: The yields of US Treasury bonds of different maturities and the yield curve inversion degree showed certain trends [272]. - **Retail Sales**: The retail and food service sales in the US showed different year - on - year growth rates for different categories [273]. - **Federal Reserve**: The asset structure of the Federal Reserve and the federal funds rate showed certain trends. The reverse repurchase amount on the liability side of the Federal Reserve decreased significantly this year [274][277].

Policy Focus - The recent policies emphasize the urgency of implementing government work post-Spring Festival, with a focus on enhancing responsibility and aiming for annual targets[2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has lowered the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales from 20% to 0%, marking the first use of this tool in nearly three and a half years[2] - Various regions, including Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu, have held "New Year First Meetings" to set the tone for the 14th Five-Year Plan, focusing on new productivity, private economy, and high-quality development[2] Real Estate and Economic Measures - Shanghai's "Seven Measures" include easing purchase restrictions and increasing public housing loan limits (up to 3.24 million yuan), aimed at stabilizing the real estate market[2] - The emphasis on establishing a correct view of performance has been reiterated in multiple meetings, including the State Council and the Central Party's construction work meeting[2] - The government is promoting the silver economy and elderly care services, enhancing consumption capabilities through subsidies and new consumption scenarios[4] Industry Development - Multiple departments are focusing on strengthening industries, particularly in low-altitude and "AI+" sectors, with initiatives to support low-altitude industry development and establish a comprehensive low-altitude insurance system[9] - The PBOC's recent policy aims to stabilize the RMB exchange rate and promote a neutral foreign exchange policy, indicating a shift towards supporting enterprises in managing currency risks[6] Upcoming Events and Expectations - Attention is drawn to the upcoming National People's Congress (NPC) sessions, where GDP growth targets are expected to be set between 4.5% and 5% for 2026, with a CPI target around 2%[2] - Key indicators to watch include whether the PMI can return to expansion territory and if credit can achieve a strong start in the first quarter[2]

Market Performance - Southeast Asia ETF rose by 1.24% during the period from February 14 to February 27, 2026, outperforming the US and India but underperforming Africa, Japan, the UK, Latin America, and China[3] - Thailand's iShares MSCI ETF surged by 6.76%, outperforming by 5.51 percentage points, driven by strong export growth and interest rate cuts[4] - Indonesia's iShares MSCI ETF gained 0.28%, underperforming by 0.96 percentage points, supported by economic growth and a trade agreement with the US[4] - Singapore's iShares MSCI ETF rose by 1.05%, underperforming by 0.19 percentage points, with initial gains followed by a mild consolidation due to moderating inflation[4] Country-Specific Insights - Malaysia's iShares MSCI ETF fell by 1.68%, underperforming by 2.92 percentage points, despite record-high trade data and a structural breakthrough in services trade[4] - Vietnam's Global X MSCI ETF advanced by 1.87%, outperforming by 0.63 percentage points, buoyed by record foreign inflows and optimistic long-term assessments[4] Trading Volume and Liquidity - Global X FTSE Southeast Asia ETF's trading volume decreased by 52.1% to 341,000 shares, indicating a significant drop in liquidity[14] - iShares MSCI Singapore ETF's trading volume fell by 38.8% to 5.948 million shares, reflecting a similar trend across the region[15] Economic Indicators - Thailand's January export growth reached 24.4%, the fastest since 2021, significantly boosting market sentiment[23] - Indonesia's GDP growth for 2025 is projected at 5.11%, up from 5.03% in 2024, indicating a steady economic recovery[17]

Market Performance - Southeast Asia ETF rose by 1.24% during the period from February 14 to February 27, 2026, outperforming the US and India but underperforming Africa, Japan, the UK, Latin America, and China[3] - Thailand's iShares MSCI ETF surged by 6.76%, outperforming by 5.51 percentage points, driven by strong export data and interest rate cuts[4] - Indonesia's iShares MSCI ETF gained 0.28%, underperforming by 0.96 percentage points, supported by economic growth and a trade agreement with the US[4] - Singapore's iShares MSCI ETF rose by 1.05%, underperforming by 0.19 percentage points, with initial gains followed by a mild consolidation due to moderating inflation[4] Country-Specific Insights - Malaysia's iShares MSCI ETF fell by 1.68%, underperforming by 2.92 percentage points, despite record-high trade data and a structural breakthrough in services trade[4] - Vietnam's Global X MSCI ETF increased by 1.87%, outperforming by 0.63 percentage points, buoyed by strong foreign inflows and optimistic long-term assessments[4] Trading Volume and Liquidity - The trading volume for the Global X FTSE Southeast Asia ETF decreased by 52.1% to 341,000 shares, indicating a significant drop in market activity[14] - Indonesia's trading volume fell by 47.4%, while Vietnam's saw a slight increase of 1.9%[15] Economic Indicators - Thailand's January export growth reached 24.4%, the fastest since 2021, contributing to market optimism[23] - Indonesia's GDP growth for 2025 is projected at 5.11%, up from 5.03% in 2024, indicating a steady recovery[17]

Core Insights - The report highlights a downward adjustment of the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales to 0%, effective from March 2, 2026, aimed at promoting foreign exchange market development and supporting enterprises in managing exchange rate risks [4] - The report indicates a stable and slightly easing liquidity in the financial market, with major repo rates continuing to decline, leading to a recovery in the bond market [1][11] - The report notes that the U.S. core PPI rose by 3.6% year-on-year in January, which may complicate future monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve [6] Domestic News - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting to discuss the 14th Five-Year Plan and emphasized the need for a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy [3] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced the implementation of the Private Investment Fund Information Disclosure Supervision and Management Measures starting September 1, 2026, aimed at enhancing transparency in private fund operations [5] International News - The U.S. PPI data for January showed a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, exceeding expectations, which may lead to upward pressure on the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index [6] - The report mentions a general decline in the yields of 10-year government bonds across major European economies, indicating a shift in market sentiment [24] Market Dynamics - The bond market showed signs of recovery on February 27, with the yield on the 10-year government bond falling by 1.10 basis points to 1.8020% [14] - The report notes significant price deviations in the secondary market for credit bonds, with some experiencing drastic declines [16] - The convertible bond market saw a collective decline in major indices, with a trading volume of 765.99 billion yuan, indicating a bearish sentiment [18] Overseas Bond Market - The U.S. Treasury yields fell across various maturities, with the 10-year yield down to 4.02%, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions [21] - The report highlights a decline in the yields of 10-year government bonds in major European economies, reflecting a broader trend of easing yields [24]

Group 1 - Shanghai released new real estate policies, "Hu Qitiao," which will reduce the social security payment requirement for non-local residents from 3 years to 1 year for purchasing homes within the outer ring, effective from February 26, 2026 [2] - The maximum family loan amount for public housing funds can reach 3.24 million yuan, and local residents can temporarily avoid property tax if the newly purchased home is their only property [2] - New fund issuance has exceeded 210 billion units this year, with 228 new funds established by February 26, showing significant growth compared to the previous year [2] Group 2 - The National Development and Reform Commission raised domestic gasoline and diesel retail prices by 175 yuan and 170 yuan per ton, respectively, effective from February 24, impacting consumer travel costs and logistics [2] - The 2026 Spring Festival box office reached 5.752 billion yuan, with 120 million viewers, indicating strong vitality in the cultural consumption market [3] - Public funds have distributed over 36.4 billion yuan in dividends this year, with 829 funds implementing dividend distributions [4] Group 3 - The U.S. has officially imposed a 10% global tariff, with plans to increase it to 15%, affecting various industries including large batteries and industrial chemicals [5] - India has relaxed regulations for its $384 billion actively managed stock funds, allowing more investment in gold and silver, enhancing flexibility amid rising global demand for hard assets [5] Group 4 - Recent global stock market performance has been mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.98% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.80%, while U.S. indices saw declines [6][7] - The yield on 1-year Chinese government bonds rose by 0.71 basis points to 1.32%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 11 basis points to 3.97% [10][11] Group 5 - Precious metals continued to show strength, with COMEX gold rising by 4.24% and silver by 13.80%, while international oil prices also increased [13][14] - Bank wealth management subsidiaries dominated financing in bank financial products, accounting for 73.97% of participating institutions and 95.67% of financing scale [15][16]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 116 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40% on February 28, with a net injection of 116 billion yuan for the day [1] - The central bank's open market saw a net withdrawal of 611.4 billion yuan for the week [1] - A total of 1.525 trillion yuan in reverse repos will mature from March 2 to 6, with an additional 1 trillion yuan in 91-day reverse repos maturing on March 6 [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - On the last trading day of February, major funding demand entities such as brokerages and funds were absent, leading to a stable interbank funding market with overnight repo rates falling to 1.31% [3] - The overnight financing guarantee rate in the U.S. was reported at 3.67% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks was at 1.58%, showing a slight decline from the previous day [6] Group 4: Bond Market Overview - Major interest rate bond yields in the interbank market declined, with long-term bonds performing better due to increased risk aversion following U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran [8] Group 5: Economic Data - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the GDP for the year reached 14,018.79 billion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, while the national income was 13,937.00 billion yuan, up by 5.1% [11] - The total population at the end of the year was 1,404.89 million, a decrease of 3.39 million from the previous year [11] - Domestic tourism reached 6.52 billion trips, an increase of 16.2% year-on-year [11] Group 6: Global Macro Trends - Stablecoin issuers are rapidly becoming the largest buyers of U.S. Treasury bills, with projections indicating that the market cap of stablecoins could reach $2 trillion by the end of 2028, potentially creating up to $1 trillion in new demand for short-term Treasury bills [14]

Group 1 - The report highlights a flattening yield curve in the credit bond market, indicating that the "barbell strategy" may show advantages in this environment [10][24][34] - The liquidity environment remains balanced, with the central bank conducting significant reverse repo and MLF operations, resulting in a net injection of 309.5 billion yuan [10][34] - The report notes that the yield curve for credit bonds has been trending downward and becoming flatter since the beginning of 2026, with various credit bond types showing high-term spreads [11][24] Group 2 - The average issuance rate of credit bonds has decreased to 2.82%, down 12 basis points from the previous week, with specific declines noted in city investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds [57][58] - The total issuance of credit bonds for the week was 79.46 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decrease compared to both the previous week and the same period last year [46][57] - The average issuance term for credit bonds has dropped to 2.97 years, indicating a trend towards shorter maturities in the current market [60][61] Group 3 - The report indicates a significant drop in trading volume for credit bonds, with total transactions amounting to 693.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 773.6 billion yuan from the previous week [67][68] - The trading structure of city investment bonds has shifted towards shorter maturities, with an increase in the proportion of transactions for bonds with a remaining term of less than one year [68][69] - The report also notes a concentration of higher-rated bonds in the trading structure, particularly for city investment and industrial bonds, suggesting a flight to quality among investors [69]

Group 1: Macro Overview and Asset Performance - In February, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.1%, while the CSI 300 increased by 0.1%. The ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 fell by 1.1% and 1.4%, respectively. The bond market saw a slight increase of 0.1%, with the 1-year government bond yield rising by 1.7 basis points, while the 5-year and 10-year yields fell by 3.4 and 3.6 basis points, respectively [1][20][11] - The Hang Seng Index dropped by 2.8%, and the three major US stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up by 0.2%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell by 3.4% and 0.9%, respectively [1][20][11] Group 2: A-Share Market Analysis - The re-ignition of conflict in Iran, trade uncertainties, and rising inflation in the US are creating short-term upward pressure on the market. Attention should be focused on the upcoming Two Sessions and the mid-March release of the 14th Five-Year Plan outline, which may provide upward momentum for the market [2][21] - Current market expectations for China's GDP growth in Q1 are at 4.70%, with a slight decline to 4.63% in Q2. As the annual report disclosure period approaches in March, market risk appetite may face further adjustments [2][21] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy emphasizes focusing on performance certainty and price-increasing varieties. During the annual report disclosure phase, attention should be paid to sectors with strong performance certainty such as CPO, PCB, and liquid cooling, as well as upstream price-increasing products like indium phosphate and copper foil [3][24] - In the technology sector, advancements in AI hardware are expected to open growth opportunities in the computing power supply chain. Continued focus on AI-related hardware and price-increasing products in the power sector is recommended [3][25] Group 4: Bond Market Strategy - With the upcoming Two Sessions in early March, which will clarify the new year's work objectives, the bond market is expected to enter a new pricing cycle. The 10-year government bond yield has shown a rebound demand, and if policy and economic data meet expectations, yields are likely to continue rising [4][27][28] - The performance of China's port container throughput in February remains strong, indicating resilient exports, which may support bond yields [4][28] Group 5: Economic Fundamentals - The RMB has appreciated against the USD, rising from 7.35 on April 9, 2025, to 6.84 on February 26, 2026, marking a 7% increase. This appreciation is attributed to both market forces and policy guidance [35][38] - The broad social financing (社融) remains stable, with significant government financing contributing to the economic support. However, the growth rate of social financing is expected to decline, which may weaken macro liquidity and its support for the economy and market [35][41][47]