Report Overview - Report Title: Apple Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Report Date: June 10, 2025 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current market focuses on bagging conditions and consumption impacts, and attention should be paid to early-maturing apple prices after mid-June [4] - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the apple market. Bullish factors include low inventory in production areas and unstable weather in some regions; bearish factors include less-than-expected overall yield reduction and the impact of seasonal fruits [5][6] Key Points by Content Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - The predicted monthly price range for apples is 7300 - 7900, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 10.8% [3] - For inventory management, when worried about low apple purchase prices due to a potential new apple harvest, enterprises with long positions can short apple futures (AP2510) at a 50% hedging ratio in the 7600 - 7650 range to lock in profits and cover production costs [3] - For procurement management, when worried about high apple purchase prices due to a decline in old - crop apple inventory and potential new - crop apple production reduction, enterprises with short positions can buy apple futures (AP2510) at a 25% hedging ratio in the 7350 - 7450 range to lock in procurement costs [3] Market Factors Analysis Bullish Factors - Inventory in apple production areas is at a historical low. Low initial inventory and faster - than - usual de - stocking in the early stage have led to a continuous decline in inventory, which supports the market [5] - Unstable weather in production areas has attracted capital attention. Research data shows that the fruit - setting situation in the northwest production area is poor, indicating a possible significant production reduction [5] Bearish Factors - The overall yield reduction based on bagging conditions is less than expected, and the bagging situation is relatively normal [6] - As the season for seasonal fruits arrives, the large supply of fruits such as watermelons, grapes, and lychees at low prices has impacted the apple market. High - priced fruits have few buyers, indicating weak consumption [6] Price Changes - On June 10, 2025, the closing prices of apple futures contracts (AP01, AP03, etc.) showed various daily and weekly percentage changes. For example, AP01 closed at 7439 with a daily increase of 0.53% and a weekly decrease of 1.54% [6] - Spot prices of different apple varieties (such as Qixia first - and second - grade 80) remained stable on that day, with no daily or weekly price changes [6] Inventory Status - The national cold - storage inventory is 138.2 (unit not specified), showing a decrease of 13.76 compared to a previous period. The national cold - storage inventory in another comparison is 136.5 with an increase of 9.81 [9] - Shandong, Shaanxi, Gansu, Shanxi, Henan, and Liaoning have different cold - storage capacity ratios, all showing a downward trend [9] - The arrival volume of apples at major wholesale markets in Guangdong (such as Guangdong Chalong, Guangdong Jiangmen) decreased on a weekly basis [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current market is in the new Brazilian sugar - crushing season, with a focus on the current and future Brazilian sugar production. The 24/25 Indian sugar production decrease and Thai increase are established facts. After the restriction of domestic syrup and premixes and the completion of domestic sugar crushing, the overall situation has little change. Recently, the market is mainly trading on the expected increase in production in Brazil, India, and Thailand in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Sugar Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted monthly price range for sugar is 5600 - 5800, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 6.45% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 1.6% [3]. - **Inventory Management Strategy**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about sugar price drops, they can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2507) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5800 - 5850 to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (SR509C6000) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 20 - 30 to collect premiums and reduce costs [3]. - **Procurement Management Strategy**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2507) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5630 - 5680 to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (SR509P5600) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [3]. 3.2 Market Situation Analysis 3.2.1 Core Contradiction - The market is currently focused on the current and future Brazilian sugar production during the new Brazilian sugar - crushing season. The 24/25 Indian sugar production decrease and Thai increase are established, and after domestic restrictions and the end of domestic sugar crushing, the situation is relatively stable. The market is trading on the expected production increase in Brazil, India, and Thailand in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season [4]. 3.2.2 Bullish Factors - As of the end of May, Guangxi's cumulative sugar sales reached 464.53 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 53.71 million tons, and the sales - to - production ratio was 71.85%, a year - on - year increase of 5.39 percentage points [5]. - The Indian National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF) expects India's 2024/25 sugar - crushing season's ending sugar inventory to be between 480 - 500 million tons, sufficient to meet domestic sugar consumption from October to November 2025 [5]. - China has suspended imports of Thai syrup and premixes [5]. - From the beginning of the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season to the first half of May, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 76.714 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.466 million tons (20.24%); the sugar - making ratio was 48.61%, a year - on - year increase of 1.01%; the cumulative sugar production was 3.989 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.17 million tons (22.68%) [5]. 3.2.3 Bearish Factors - In the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, Guangxi's cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume was 48.5954 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5847 million tons, but the mixed - sugar production was 6.465 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.2836 million tons, and the sugar - making rate was 13.30%, a year - on - year increase of 1.22 percentage points [6]. - Analysis firm JOB predicts that Brazil's sugar production in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season will increase by 5% to 46 million tons [6]. - Thailand's 24/25 sugar - crushing season production is expected to increase to 10.39 million tons [6]. - The Indian monsoon has arrived 3 - 4 days earlier than usual. The chairman of the federation expects a strong recovery in India's sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, reaching about 35 million tons due to good monsoon conditions, expanded sugar - cane planting areas in major producing regions, and the government's increase in the minimum sugar - cane purchase price [6]. 3.3 Sugar Price Data 3.3.1 Sugar Basis Daily Changes - On June 9, 2025, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 490, with a daily decrease of 10 and a weekly increase of 13; the basis of Kunming - SR01 was 310, with a daily decrease of 15 and a weekly increase of 3 [7]. 3.3.2 Sugar Futures Prices and Spreads - On June 10, 2025, the closing price of SR01 was 5580, with a daily decrease of 0.18% and a weekly decrease of 0.66%; the closing price of SR03 was 5554, with a daily decrease of 0.18% and a weekly decrease of 0.66%; etc. [9]. 3.3.3 Sugar Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - On June 10, 2025, the price of Nanning sugar was 6080, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 10; the price of Liuzhou sugar was 6130, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 15; the price of Kunming sugar was 5900, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 45 [10]. 3.3.4 Sugar Import Price Daily Changes - On June 10, 2025, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar imports was 4543, with a daily decrease of 12 and a weekly decrease of 48; the out - of - quota price was 5774, with a daily decrease of 15 and a weekly decrease of 62 [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On June 10, Treasury bond futures closed higher, with TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts rising 0.01%, 0.01%, 0.01%, and 0.08% respectively. The central bank conducted a net withdrawal, and the weighted average rate of DR007 fell back to around 1.51%. The domestic economic data in May was weak, which may support the bond market. The short - term interest rate is expected to drive the long - term interest rate down slightly, but further monetary policy easing is needed to break through the previous low. It is expected that the main contracts of bond futures will show a relatively strong oscillating trend this week, and investors are advised to maintain a certain position [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Closing Price and Volume**: T main contract closed at 108.995, up 0.01%; TF at 106.135, up 0.01%; TS at 102.442, unchanged; TL at 120.160, up 0.07%. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts decreased by 12,693, 2,506, 10,233, and 12,885 respectively [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads such as TL2509 - 2506, T2509 - 2506, etc. showed different changes, with some rising and some falling [2] - **Futures Positions**: The main contract positions of T, TF, TS, and TL all decreased. Among the top 20 long and short positions, the long positions of T, TF, TS, and TL increased by 2,515, 987, 901, and 2,815 respectively, and the short positions increased by 3,790, - 61, 673, and 2,349 respectively [2] 3.2 CTD and Active Bonds - **CTD Net Price**: Some CTD bonds' net prices had changes, such as 2500802.IB rising 0.2982, while 240020.IB falling 0.0007 and 0.0111 respectively [2] - **Active Bond Yields**: The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year active bonds changed by 0, 0.75bp, 0.46bp, - 0.25bp, and 0.35bp respectively [2] 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The silver - pledged overnight rate rose 4.05bp to 1.3705%, and the 7 - day rate rose 10bp to 1.5500%. Shibor overnight fell 1.6bp to 1.3620%, and Shibor 7 - day fell 0.1bp to 1.4960% [2] - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2] 3.4 Open Market Operations - The central bank's open - market operation had an issuance scale of 198.6 billion yuan, a maturity scale of 454.5 billion yuan, and a net withdrawal of 255.9 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - On June 10, the Ministry of Finance is actively involved in improving the "one old and one young" service system. The human resources and social security department will study and formulate insurance - participation policies for specific groups [2] 3.6 Key Data to Watch - On June 11 at 20:30, the US May unadjusted CPI annual rate; on June 12 at 20:30, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 7 [3]

主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：中粮期货、持仓5867、增仓923，新湖期货、持仓2469、增仓449，国贸期货、持 仓4306、增仓323；多头减仓前三名分别是：中信期货、持仓10246、减仓-896，金瑞期货、持仓2648、减仓-712，中金财富、持 仓1791、减仓-326； 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：东证期货、持仓8253、增仓435，永安期货、持仓7286、增仓289，宝城期货、持 仓3031、增仓280；空头减仓前三名分别是：国泰君安、持仓11046、减仓-1334，五矿期货、持仓3044、减仓-574，银河期货、持 仓3519、减仓-503。 文章来源:新浪期货 2025年6月10日沪锌主力合约2507持仓数据一览 | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 增减 | 会员 | 持买单 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 国泰君安 | 49,494 | -7,708 | 中信期货 | 10,246 | -896 | 中 ...

国贸期货有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 官 方 网 站 服 热线 客 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/6/10 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX更金 | CONEX日银 | AU2508 | AG2508 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/登司) | (美元/盗司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点价 | | | | | | | | | | | 格跟踪 | 2025/6/9 | 3324. 93 | 36. 30 | 3345. 70 | 36. 51 | 774.72 | 8909.0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will launch futures and options contracts for casting aluminum alloys on June 10, 2025, to support China's dual carbon strategy and enhance the industry's risk management tools [1] Group 1: Market Overview - China is the largest producer and consumer of casting aluminum alloys globally, with an estimated production capacity of 13 million tons and a production volume of 6.2 million tons in 2024 [1] - The apparent consumption of casting aluminum alloys in China is projected to be approximately 6.73 million tons [1] Group 2: Product Characteristics and Applications - Casting aluminum alloys are characterized by low density, high strength, good corrosion resistance, and excellent castability, making them widely used in automotive, motorcycle, machinery, communication equipment, electronics, and hardware lighting sectors [1] Group 3: Futures Market Impact - The introduction of casting aluminum alloy futures and options is expected to provide effective tools for enterprises to manage price risks and stabilize operations [1] - The contracts will facilitate physical delivery, expanding the spot circulation channels for enterprises [1] Group 4: Pricing and Valuation - The initial listing benchmark price for the casting aluminum alloy contracts is set at 18,365 CNY per ton, with trading units of 10 tons and delivery units of 30 tons per standard warehouse receipt [2] - Initial reasonable valuation for the contracts is estimated to be between 19,000 and 20,000 CNY per ton based on current market prices [2] Group 5: Demand Dynamics - The downstream demand for casting aluminum alloys is concentrated, with over 60% used in the automotive sector, 7% in home appliances, and 10% in motorcycles and electric vehicles [3] - Seasonal demand fluctuations are expected, with peak demand from September to December and January of the following year, while the off-peak season typically occurs from May to August [3] Group 6: Price Relationships - The price relationship between primary aluminum and recycled aluminum shows seasonal trends, with the price difference typically ranging from 1,000 to 4,000 CNY per ton [3] - The correlation between aluminum alloy spot prices and primary aluminum spot prices can be utilized for effective price risk management [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Continue to hold and pay attention to short - end performance [1]. 3. Summary by Content Market Performance - Treasury bond futures rose in early trading, were affected by news in the afternoon, and closed higher. Structurally, long - end performed strongly during the day, with TS and TF main contracts flat and others rising. The central bank had a net injection of 173.8 billion yuan as there were no reverse repurchase maturities in the open market [1]. News - The General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued an opinion on further ensuring and improving people's livelihood and addressing urgent concerns of the public [2]. Market Analysis - The capital interest rate dropped further. The central bank's net injection in the open - market in the morning led to a decline in the capital interest rate, and the overnight inter - bank anonymous rate fell below 1.4% to 1.35%. The inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) rate declined, indicating improved liquidity. Currently, the bond market sentiment is good, but the relatively weak performance of short - term bonds does not match the market trend and NCD performance. If this structure continues, the upside potential of long - end bonds will be limited [3]. - There was a new round of China - US economic and trade negotiations in the UK this week. In the afternoon, false news of a China - US agreement caused a temporary drop in treasury bond futures prices. In the short - term, the biggest variable in the China - US negotiations may be a certain reduction of the 20% fentanyl tariff, but complete removal is unlikely. If the trade negotiation is favorable this week, it may be a case of "bad news being fully priced in" for the bond market [3]. Data | Contract | 2025 - 06 - 06 | 2025 - 06 - 05 | Today's Change | Last Week's Same Period | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2509 | 102.448 | 102.434 | 0.014 | 102.35 | | TF2509 | 106.125 | 106.06 | 0.065 | 105.875 | | T2509 | 108.9 | 108.735 | 0.165 | 108.5 | | TL2509 | 119.72 | 119.36 | 0.36 | 118.75 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0733 | - 0.0721 | - 0.0012 | - 0.0794 | | TF Basis (CTD) | - 0.0287 | - 0.0084 | - 0.0203 | - 0.0397 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.2587 | - 0.0138 | 0.2725 | 0.3512 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.5255 | 0.6076 | - 0.0821 | 0.3512 | | DR001 | 1.4124 | 1.412 | 0.0004 | 0 | | DR007 | 1.5323 | 1.5509 | - 0.0186 | - 0.1007 | | DR014 | 1.5833 | 1.5892 | - 0.0059 | - 0.1352 | [3][4] Charts - The report includes charts on net basis and basis of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts, long - end interest rate trends, treasury bond spreads (7Y - 2Y), US treasury bond trends, US - China spreads, exchange - traded fund prices, DR and policy anchors, and inter - bank capital transactions [5][10][12][15][16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main logic of the external market lies in the speculation on the planting weather of US soybeans, which is gradually recovering under the China-US peace talks. The domestic market is under continuous pressure from the actual supply, suppressing the near - month and spot prices of meal products. However, the long - position speculation on the weather market and the unfalsifiable expectation of supply gap due to the trade war in the far - month contracts lead to a stronger far - month trend [4]. - The supply pressure in the second quarter and the third quarter is relatively large, resulting in a weak performance of the spot basis. The supply in the second and third quarters is still abundant, but there is a gap in fourth - quarter ship purchases. On the rapeseed meal side, the spot supply pressure remains, and it is difficult to reduce inventory. The far - month supply has the expectation of Sino - Canadian relations improvement [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oilseed Price Range Forecast - Monthly price range forecasts: The price range for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.1% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 11.5%. The price range for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1765 and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 0.3218 [3]. 3.2 Oilseed Hedging Strategy | Behavior Orientation | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Trader Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures according to enterprise inventory to lock in profits and make up for production costs | M2509 | Sell | 25 | 3300 - 3400 | | Feed Mill Procurement Management | Short | Buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance | M2509 | Buy | 50 | 2850 - 3000 | | Oil Mill Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures according to enterprise situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs | M2509 | Sell | 50 | 3100 - 3200 | [3] 3.3 Oilseed Futures Prices | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3060 | 12 | 0.39% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2728 | 7 | 0.26% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 3010 | 52 | 1.76% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2347 | 34 | 1.47% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2360 | 9 | 0.38% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2608 | 41 | 1.6% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1058 | 0 | 0% | | Offshore RMB | 7.1862 | 0 | 0% | [5][8] 3.4 Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads | Spread Type | Price | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 327 | 0 | | M05 - 09 | - 289 | - 26 | | M09 - 01 | - 38 | 7 | | RM01 - 05 | - 4 | 12 | | RM05 - 09 | - 257 | - 19 | | RM09 - 01 | 261 | 7 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Spot | 2840 | 40 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Basis | - 170 | - 12 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2492 | - 2 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | - 116 | - 43 | | Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 348 | 42 | | Bean and Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 402 | 0 | [9] 3.5 Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/Ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (23%) | 4498.7624 | 0 | - 0.0375 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3780.97 | 55.27 | 122.8 | | Cost Difference between US Gulf (3%) and US Gulf (23%) | - 731.5061 | - 5.6889 | - 7.639 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (23%) | - 704.3824 | 0 | 61.638 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 248.0694 | 3.278 | - 0.0526 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 39 | 117 | 94 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 23 | 120 | 91 | [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The year-on-year growth rate of asphalt production is 22.5%, and the year-on-year growth rate of demand is 27.5%. The inventory maintains a slight reduction, with overall pressure being low and the inventory structure being good. Both factory and social inventories have decreased. The basis has strengthened month-on-month, the spot price has strengthened while the futures price has remained flat, and the real - world situation provides fair support. However, the futures market shows concerns about rainy - season demand. The cracking spread on the futures has weakened month - on - month, with crude oil performing strongly and the profit of downstream products being passively weakened. The overall valuation is still at a high level. In the short term (from mid - late June to early August), it remains to be seen whether the decline in demand growth caused by the rainy season can match the increase in production growth under high profits, and the demand side is under pressure in the short term. In the long - term, there is still an expected increase in demand in the last year of the 14th Five - Year Plan [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Asphalt Price and Volatility - The price range forecast for the asphalt main contract in the month is 3400 - 3600 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.15%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 17.58% [1]. 3.2 Asphalt Risk Management Strategy | Behavior Orientation | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio | Suggested Entry Range | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Inventory Management | Long | To prevent inventory losses, short asphalt futures according to the enterprise's inventory situation to lock in profits and cover production costs | bu2509 | Sell | 25% | 3500 - 3600 | | Procurement Management | Short | To prevent the increase in procurement costs due to rising asphalt prices, buy asphalt futures at the current stage to lock in procurement costs in advance | bu2509 | Buy | 50% | 3300 - 3400 | [1] 3.3 Price and Basis Data of Asphalt on June 9, 2025 | Region | Spot Price (yuan/ton) | Day - on - Day Change | Week - on - Week Change | 09 Contract Basis (yuan/ton) | Day - on - Day Change | Week - on - Week Change | Spot to Brent Cracking (yuan/barrel) | Day - on - Day Change | Week - on - Week Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shandong | 3695 | 0 | 70 | 207 | - 10 | - 4 | 161.34 | 0.3399 | - 15.9129 | | Yangtze River Delta | 3650 | 0 | 70 | 162 | - 10 | - 4 | - | - | - | | North China | 3745 | 85 | 100 | 257 | 75 | 26 | - | - | - | | South China | 3410 | 0 | 30 | - 78 | - 10 | - 44 | - | - | - | [3] 3.4利多 and利空 Factors - **利多 Factors**: The asphalt's own inventory structure is good, and there is a seasonal peak in demand [5]. - **利空 Factors**: The cracking spread remains at a high level; after the end of maintenance, the production of some refineries has recovered; the plum - rain season in the South has dragged down demand, and the upward driving force of the basis is insufficient [2][3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, caustic soda prices dropped significantly. The trading logic shifted, and the expectation of a worsened market situation after July strengthened. Additionally, electricity costs had an impact. However, in the short term, the pressure on the spot market is not obvious. There are still many maintenance plans in June, and the spot prices do not have a basis for continuous decline [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2300 - 2600. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 25.84%, and the historical percentile (3 - year) is 63.9% [3]. Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short caustic soda futures (SH2509, sell, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 2600 - 2650) to lock in profits and sell call options (SH509C2600, sell, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 30 - 40) to reduce costs. For those worried about price increases in procurement, they can buy caustic soda futures (SH2509, buy, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 2300 - 2350) and sell put options (SH509P2200, sell, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 50 - 60) [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and planning to purchase based on orders, they can buy caustic soda futures at the current stage to lock in procurement costs and sell put options to reduce procurement costs [3]. Core Contradictions - In the short term, the fundamentals are not weak, and there is no obvious pressure on the spot market. In the long - term, there is production capacity expansion pressure, the market pattern will worsen, and the expectation is weak [4]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - **Lido Factors**: In the short term, the fundamentals have no obvious pressure. There are still many maintenance plans in June. The profit of the alumina industry on the demand side continues to improve, and non - aluminum exports are improving [5]. - **Risks**: In the long - term, there is an oversupply pressure. There is an expected centralized production capacity expansion on the supply side, and the demand growth is insufficient to support a market reversal [6]. Price and Spread Data - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On June 9, 2025, the price of the caustic soda 05 contract was 2327, up 12 (0.52%) from June 6; the 09 contract was 2335, up 3 (0.13%); the 01 contract was 2268, up 9 (0.4%). The 5 - 9 spread was - 8, up 9; the 9 - 1 spread was 67, down 6; the 1 - 5 spread was - 59, down 3. The 05 contract basis (Shandong Jinling) was 454.25, down 12; the 09 contract basis was 446.25, down 3; the 01 contract basis was 513.25, down 9 [7]. - **Spot Prices**: On June 9, 2025, among 32 - alkali products, Shandong Jinling's price was 2656, down 125 (- 4.5%) from June 6. Among 50 - alkali products, Shandong Jinling's price was 2640, down 100 (- 3.7%). Most other brands and regions had no price changes. The market price of flake caustic soda in various regions also remained unchanged [8]. - **Price Spreads**: On June 9, 2025, the spread between Shandong 50 - alkali and 32 - alkali was - 16, up 25 from June 6. Some other spreads remained unchanged, while the 50 - alkali spread between Jiangsu and Shandong was 220, up 20; the 50 - alkali spread between Guangdong and Shandong was 530, up 10 [9].