Core Viewpoint - The recent market trend in July revolves around the theme of "anti-involution," with the non-ferrous metal sector showing significant gains, particularly in response to government policies aimed at enhancing product quality and phasing out outdated production capacity [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - In July, the non-ferrous index achieved a growth rate of 5.7%, ranking 8th among all industries, with small metals and energy metals performing exceptionally well [2]. - The central government's focus on establishing a unified national market and addressing low-price competition is expected to drive improvements in product quality and industry standards [1][2]. Group 2: Policy Context - The Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting on July 1, 2025, emphasized the need for regulatory measures to combat disordered competition and promote high-quality development [1][2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a new round of growth stabilization plans for key industries, including non-ferrous metals, on July 18, 2025 [2]. Group 3: Supply-Side Reform Analysis - The analysis of supply-side structural reforms indicates that the non-ferrous index's performance is closely tied to policy announcements, with historical data showing significant correlations between policy implementation and index fluctuations [2][3]. - The current "anti-involution" movement is set against a backdrop of global restructuring, aiming not only for price stabilization but also for sustainable high-quality growth [3][4]. Group 4: Comparative Insights - Japan's experience with anti-involution reforms in the cement industry serves as a reference, highlighting the importance of industry consolidation and capacity coordination to enhance market efficiency [3][4]. - The anticipated outcomes of the current anti-involution efforts may lead to increased mergers and collaborations within the industry, potentially raising market concentration and fostering high-quality development [4].

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a comprehensive upward trend driven by ample liquidity, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching 3900 points and a rise of 1.51%, while the ChiNext Index leads with a 3.00% increase. The total trading volume of both markets has unprecedentedly surpassed 30 trillion yuan [1]. Key Sectors - The market leadership has shifted from the previous focus on AI and semiconductor sectors to four core sectors advancing together: 1. AI export chain led by Nvidia showing strong performance 2. AI autonomous chain driven by DeepSeek gaining attention 3. Small metals, precious metals, and non-ferrous metals benefiting from inflation performing well 4. Real estate, consumption, and anti-involution sectors positively impacted by policy support [1]. Performance Analysis - Among the four sectors, the AI export chain and inflation metals chain have shown particularly outstanding performance, with frequent instances of stocks hitting the daily limit. In contrast, the AI autonomous chain and policy chain have underperformed, with the AI autonomous chain even showing signs of retreat, as evidenced by increased stock price volatility for companies like SMIC and Cambricon [1]. Market Sentiment and Fundamentals - The weaker performance of the AI autonomous chain and policy chain is attributed to their less robust internal logic, relying more on market expectations and emotional drivers, making sustained upward momentum challenging. For instance, the AI autonomous chain saw a surge due to DeepSeek's official news, but this emotional rise is unlikely to last due to the lack of substantial breakthroughs in the domestic chip sector and the absence of significant earnings releases [1]. Company-Specific Insights - Discussions around Cambricon are intense, with rumors suggesting potential large-scale procurement from ByteDance, which could lead to significant revenue and profit growth. However, these unverified claims raise skepticism [2]. - The policy chain faces similar challenges, as the new real estate policies in Shanghai have attracted capital attention, but the extent and sustainability of these benefits for the real estate sector and related industries remain uncertain. Without a substantial turnaround in performance, long-term confidence from investors is difficult to establish [3]. Performance Drivers - In contrast, the inflation sector and AI export chain are favored by investors due to continuous earnings growth. Despite significant stock price increases and relatively high valuations, investor confidence in these two sectors remains strong. Earnings are the core driver of the stock market, even in a liquidity-driven bull market. When other sectors are stimulated by favorable news, funds may temporarily flow in, but once the positive news fades, they are likely to return to sectors with strong earnings [3]. Sector Comparisons - For example, leading companies in the AI export chain, such as Shijia Photon, NewEase, and Zhongji Xuchuang, have seen their stock prices soar alongside substantial net profit growth. The overall performance of the optical module industry surpasses that of the PCB industry, primarily due to its higher technical barriers and profit margins [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the performance and market position of Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd., which has a closing price of 12.08 yuan, an increase of 8.73%, and a rolling PE ratio of 15.40 times, with a total market value of 258.44 billion yuan [1][2] - The company ranks 5th in the small metals industry, which has an average PE ratio of 80.90 times and a median of 72.85 times [1][2] - As of the 2025 semi-annual report, 222 institutions hold shares in Luoyang Molybdenum, including 214 funds, with a total shareholding of 1,242,246,500 shares valued at 104.60 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The main business of Luoyang Molybdenum includes mining, selection, smelting of base and rare metals, and mineral trading, with key products being molybdenum, tungsten, copper, cobalt, niobium, phosphorus, and refined metal trading [1] - The latest performance report shows that for the first half of 2025, the company achieved an operating income of 94.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.83%, and a net profit of 8.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60.07%, with a gross profit margin of 21.15% [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [4][6][20]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 21.093 billion yuan in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.35%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.062 billion yuan, up 32.76% year-on-year, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.303 billion yuan, an increase of 30.55% year-on-year [1][9]. - The company is the world's largest producer of refined tin, with a domestic market share of 47.98% and a global market share of 25.03% in 2024. The company aims to strengthen its resource base and enhance its competitive advantages in smelting and mineral processing [3][17]. - The company has set ambitious production targets for 2025, including 90,000 tons of tin, 125,000 tons of copper, and 131,600 tons of zinc, with significant progress made in the first half of the year [2][10]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 11.365 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.53% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.82%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 562 million yuan, up 18.76% year-on-year and 12.61% quarter-on-quarter [1][9]. - The company’s financial forecasts for 2025-2027 project revenues of 43.734 billion yuan, 44.088 billion yuan, and 44.442 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.2%, 0.8%, and 0.8%, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 2.348 billion yuan, 2.755 billion yuan, and 3.006 billion yuan, with growth rates of 62.5%, 17.4%, and 9.1% [4][20][21]. Production and Operational Strategy - The company produced approximately 181,300 tons of non-ferrous metals in the first half of the year, including 48,100 tons of tin, 69,800 tons of zinc, and 62,500 tons of copper. The company has implemented a dual-channel strategy for raw material procurement to ensure stable supply [2][10]. - The company is focused on enhancing the value of existing mines and improving the efficiency of its operations, including optimizing mining layouts and strengthening processing capabilities [3][10][17]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for tin in semiconductor and renewable energy sectors, with expectations of a steady rise in tin prices due to limited supply growth [4][20]. - The strategic goal is to become a leading global supplier of tin and indium products, with ongoing efforts to explore and develop resources in key mining areas [3][17].

Group 1 - The small metal sector experienced a significant increase of 5.6% on August 25, with Zhangyuan Tungsten leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3883.56, up 1.51%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12441.07, up 2.26% [1] - Notable performers in the small metal sector included Caoyuan Tungsten, which rose by 10.03% to a closing price of 13.38, and Xianlu Tungsten, which increased by 9.97% to 12.13 [1] Group 2 - The small metal sector saw a net inflow of 459 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 308 million yuan [2][3] - The top stock in terms of main fund inflow was Northern Rare Earth, with a net inflow of 357 million yuan, representing 1.57% of its total [3] - Xiamen Tungsten and Xianglu Tungsten also saw significant main fund inflows of 88.19 million yuan and 71.57 million yuan, respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - A-shares experienced a strong upward trend on August 25, with significant trading volume across major indices, indicating positive market sentiment and sector performance [1]. Market Performance - The three major A-share indices closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 3883.56 points, up 1.51%, and a trading volume of 1.36 trillion yuan [1]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12441.07 points, gaining 2.26%, with a trading volume of 1.78 trillion yuan [1]. - The ChiNext Index ended at 2762.99 points, increasing by 3.00%, with a trading volume of 866.16 billion yuan [1]. Sector Performance - Strong performing sectors included copper, liquor, lead-zinc, gold, mineral products, real estate, small metals, communication equipment, ordinary steel, and coke [1]. - Sectors that experienced adjustments included textile machinery, water utilities, and daily chemicals [1]. Concept Stocks - Notable concept stocks that saw significant gains included rare earth permanent magnets, CPO concept, liquor, and optical communication [1].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese rare earth market experienced a significant increase, with prices rising by 6.19% on August 25, leading to a transaction volume of 5.837 billion yuan and a total market capitalization of 53.507 billion yuan [1] Company Overview - The company primarily engages in the production and operation of rare earth oxides and provides rare earth technology research and consulting services [2][8] - The company is a state-owned enterprise, ultimately controlled by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council [3][4] - The company is categorized as a "Zhongzi" stock, indicating its control by state-owned assets or central state enterprises [4] Financial Performance - For the period from January to March 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 728 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 141.32%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 72.618 million yuan, up 125.15% year-on-year [8] - The company's main business revenue composition includes 59.95% from rare earth oxides, 38.19% from rare earth metals, and 0.22% from technical services [8] Market Activity - The main capital flow for the company showed a net outflow of 115 million yuan today, with a ranking of 24 out of 24 in the industry, indicating a reduction in main capital positions for two consecutive days [5][6] - The average trading cost of the company's shares is 44.23 yuan, with the stock price approaching a resistance level of 51.50 yuan, suggesting potential for a breakout and subsequent upward trend [7] Shareholder Information - As of August 8, the number of shareholders for the company reached 185,300, an increase of 15.66% from the previous period, while the average number of circulating shares per person decreased by 13.54% [8] - The company has distributed a total of 346 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 124 million yuan distributed over the past three years [9]

Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a significant upward trend on August 25, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching the 3900-point mark, closing up by 1.51% at 3883.56 [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.26%, closing at 12441.07, while the ChiNext Index increased by 3%, ending at 2762.99 [1] - A total of 3351 stocks in the market rose, while 1898 stocks fell, with 92 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 8 stocks hitting the limit down [1] Trading Volume - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges exceeded 3 trillion yuan, marking a new high for the year and the first time in 217 trading days that it surpassed this threshold [2] - This trading volume exceeded the previous second-highest record of 2.942678 trillion yuan set on October 9, 2024, and is only behind the historical record of 3.454933 trillion yuan achieved on October 8, 2024 [2] Sector Performance - Sectors such as CPO, non-ferrous metals (tungsten), refrigerants, precious metals, minor metals, and other non-ferrous metals showed significant gains [2] - Conversely, sectors including fentanyl, industrial gases, telecommunications, and beauty care experienced notable declines [2]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3883.56 points, up 57.8 points, with a gain of 1.51% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12441.07 points, up 275.01 points, with a gain of 2.26% [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 2762.99 points, up 80.44 points, with a gain of 3.0% [1] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4469.22 points, up 91.22 points, with a gain of 2.08% [1] Trading Volume - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 30 trillion yuan, marking the second occurrence in A-share history to surpass this threshold [1] Sector Performance - The top five performing sectors included: - Small Metals: up 4.94% - Precious Metals: up 3.73% - Communication Equipment: up 3.15% - Beverage Industry: up 2.93% - Wind Power Equipment: up 2.25% [1] - The bottom five performing sectors included: - Electronic Chemicals: down 0.33% - Automotive Manufacturing: down 0.19% - Beauty and Personal Care: down 0.13% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The strategy based on industry and theme ETFs constructed by Hengtai Securities Research Institute has achieved certain results. From August 18 - 22, 2025, the strategy's cumulative net return was about 6.08%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 1.79%. From October 14, 2024, to the present, the out - of - sample cumulative return of the strategy was about 15.90%, and the cumulative excess relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 0.76% [3]. - For the week of August 25 - 29, 2025, the model recommends allocating sectors such as communication equipment, industrial metals, and batteries. The strategy will newly hold products like Battery ETF, Science and Technology Innovation Semiconductor ETF, and Industrial Mother Machine ETF, and continue to hold products such as Communication Equipment ETF, Industrial Non - ferrous Metals ETF, and Satellite ETF [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Strategy Portfolio Construction - Hengtai Securities Research Institute constructed a strategy portfolio based on industry and theme ETFs according to the strategy reports "Strategy Portfolio Report under Industry Rotation: Quantitative Analysis from the Perspective of Industry Style Continuity and Switching" (20241007) and "Research on the Overview and Allocation Methods of the Stock - type ETF Market: Taking the ETF Portfolio Based on the Industry Rotation Strategy as an Example" (20241013) [2]. 3.2 ETF Portfolio Information | Fund Code | ETF Name | ETF Market Value (billion yuan) | Holding Status | Heavy - held Shenwan Industry and Weight | Weekly Timing Signal | Daily Timing Signal | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 159583 | Communication Equipment ETF | 2.68 | Continue to hold | Communication equipment (73.61%) | 1 | 1 | | 560860 | Industrial Non - ferrous Metals ETF | 18.08 | Continue to hold | Industrial metals (54.97%) | 1 | 1 | | 159755 | Battery ETF | 48.90 | Add to portfolio | Battery (60.37%) | 1 | 1 | | 588170 | Science and Technology Innovation Semiconductor ETF | 4.09 | Add to portfolio | Semiconductor (87.1%) | 1 | 1 | | 159667 | Industrial Mother Machine ETF | 6.53 | Add to portfolio | Automation equipment (45.3%) | - 1 | 1 | | 159206 | Satellite ETF | 2.05 | Continue to hold | Military electronics (34.22%) | 1 | 1 | | 516150 | Rare Earth ETF Harvest | 58.89 | Add to portfolio | Minor metals (34.67%) | 1 | 1 | | 560170 | Central State - owned Enterprises Science and Technology ETF | 14.17 | Add to portfolio | Aviation equipment (22.35%) | 1 | 1 | | 588830 | Science and Technology Innovation New Energy ETF | 5.73 | Add to portfolio | Photovoltaic equipment (47.93%) | 1 | 1 | | 159698 | Grain ETF | 2.06 | Add to portfolio | Planting industry (48.33%) | 1 | 1 | [3] 3.3 Performance Tracking - From August 18 - 22, 2025, the strategy's cumulative net return was about 6.08%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 1.79%. From October 14, 2024, to the present, the out - of - sample cumulative return of the strategy was about 15.90%, and the cumulative excess relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 0.76% [3]. 3.4 Portfolio Adjustment - In the week of August 25, 2025, products such as Battery ETF, Science and Technology Innovation Semiconductor ETF, and Industrial Mother Machine ETF will be newly held, while products like Gold Stock ETF, Game ETF, and Innovation Drug ETF will be removed from the portfolio [3][12].