房地产 2025 年 09 月 24 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 60% 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 《新房成交面积同环比增长，1-8 月房 地产开发投资同比下降—行业周报》 -2025.9.21 《新房上海持续领涨，二手房价格同 比降幅缩小 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.9.16 《8 月销售降幅扩大，宽松政策后一线 新 房 成 交 回 暖 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.9.15 房价止跌回稳系列三：鉴往知来，人口不是影响房价 唯一因素 ——行业深度报告 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | 杜致远（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | duzhiyuan@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 证书编号：S0790524070001 | 证书编号：S0790124070064 | 发达国家/地区中期人口变化对房价 ...

9月23日，由克而瑞主办的"2025中东不动产投资高峰论坛"在上海举办。该次论坛以全球视野深度聚焦 中东投资机遇，来自产学研各界专业人士，通过主题分享与圆桌对话形式，为企业及个人提供了清晰的 海外置业、投资决策方向。 挖掘潜在机遇 在圆桌论坛环节，多位业内人士就中阿合作中的潜在机遇等展开研讨。在罗长远看来，中阿合作已突破 双边局限，"通道国家"作用凸显，企业可重点把握中阿双边政府合作、中国-海合会分会、中国-阿拉伯 国家分会、中国-东盟-海合会分会四大平台，整合优化资源，精准把握投资方向，增强投资信心。 Jonathan Emery认为，吸引中国投资者的不仅是阿联酋高租金回报率与资产增值率，更包括人口增长、 主权财富基金增加等基础数据支撑的发展前景，多维度因素共同驱动阿布扎比经济稳步增长，为投资提 供保障。 克而瑞集团董事长丁祖昱在现场的演讲中表示，海外房地产投资应聚焦区域中心城市，阿联酋的迪拜与 阿布扎比是中东地区的核心选择。从全球投资规律来看，成熟市场的龙头城市往往是房地产投资的关键 落点，如美国纽约、英国伦敦、东南亚新加坡等。阿联酋作为中东龙头，其核心城市迪拜与阿布扎比具 备区域金融中心、经济中心的属性 ...

21世纪经济报道记者 吴抒颖 深圳报道 2025年9月中旬的一个午后，南头古城一家糖水铺里面，设计师与工程师不断出入勘察，讨论这栋建筑 的完善方案。工作团队反复推敲，论及的细节包括屋檐、窗花的样式应如何设计。 （原标题：从城中村到文化高地，南头古城焕新记录） 南头古城一砖一瓦，均非一蹴而就。自2019年启动城市更新微改造以来，南头古城的蜕变从未停止。曾 经的南头古城，是一座典型的城中村：居住环境差、违章建筑多，安全隐患多。 南头古城项目负责人介绍，南头古城的改造前提是，核心改造面积控制在30%，不改变原有城中村的社 会结构，并保留居住作为主要社区功能基础，绝大部分原住民可留在当地，并共享改造成果，例如显著 改善的人居环境、日常管理水平和服务配套。 与此同时，南头古城还要在改造后空间融入当代城市要素、多元业态和城市文化空间，在保留城中村烟 火气的基础上，利用功能业态升级及公共空间改善满足了多元人群的复合需求，让更年轻、更文艺的新 兴人群进入南头古城工作和生活，带来了新的创意活力。 南头古城在深圳又具有特殊的意义，它具有1700余年的历史，见证深圳这座新兴城市的历史变迁。南头 古城共有建筑1000余栋，包括一处广 ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经香港9月24日电（记者林迎楠）24日，港股主要指数低开高走，截至收盘，恒生指数上涨 1.37%至26518.65点，恒生科技指数上涨2.53%至6323.15点，国企指数上涨1.64%至9442.99点。 当日恒指低开85.43点，开盘后一路震荡向上，最终恒指涨359.53点，主板成交超2887亿港元。当日，港 股通（南向）净流入超过137亿港元。 整体来看，多数板块涨跌互现，科网、芯片、风电、稳定币概念等股多有上涨，房地产、银行、保险、 券商、创新药、港口运输等股有涨有跌，生物医药、黄金、有色金属、燃气等股多有下跌。 成交额前三的个股中，阿里巴巴涨9.16%，成交超440亿港元；腾讯控股涨2.05%，成交超118亿港元； 中芯国际涨5.72%，成交超114亿港元。 编辑：罗浩 个股方面，蓝思科技涨6.38%，巨子生物跌11.96%，大众公用跌12.50%，TCL电子涨6.87%，中国光大 控股涨8.90%，中国重汽涨7.03%，中创智领涨5.05%，极兔速递涨3.48%，快手涨3.78%，蔚来涨 3.16%，小鹏汽车跌0.72%，中国中药涨16.28%，国泰君安国际跌5.76%，商汤 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Real Estate Market Trends Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the current state of the national real estate market in China, highlighting a downward trend since August 2025, with core cities experiencing significant price declines [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Downturn**: The national real estate market has returned to levels seen in 2016, with a notable increase in price declines since August 2025. Core cities are showing signs of a "补跌" (catch-up decline) [2][3]. 2. **Optimistic Signals**: Despite the overall negative trend, there are positive indicators such as improving M1 and M2 monetary metrics, active A-share market participation, and Hong Kong's early rebound from price declines [1][2]. 3. **City Performance**: - **First-tier Cities**: Hong Kong has rebounded, Shenzhen remains stable, while Guangzhou, Beijing, and Shanghai have seen increased declines [1][8]. - **Regional Variations**: Cities like Harbin and Urumqi show strong resistance to price declines due to high rental yields, while the Yangtze River Delta and Greater Bay Area are experiencing severe adjustments [3][8]. 4. **Rental Yields**: Rental yields vary significantly across cities, with first-tier cities averaging around 1.6%, second-tier cities at approximately 2.0%, and some third-tier cities like Urumqi and Harbin reaching up to 3.5% [7][9]. 5. **Investment Appeal**: Equity assets are yielding better returns than real estate, with many cities' rental yields failing to cover mortgage rates, diminishing real estate's attractiveness as an investment [9][10]. 6. **Policy Changes**: The government has implemented measures to ease purchasing restrictions and lower interest rates in major cities, indicating a shift towards a more accommodative policy environment [4][5]. 7. **Future Risks and Opportunities**: The market may face further downward adjustments, but there is potential for rebounds in certain regions, particularly in the West and Northeast, as well as in tourism-related real estate [2][16]. Additional Important Insights - **High-Quality Assets**: Low-density residential properties and high-quality apartments are showing resilience, with some areas experiencing price increases despite the overall market downturn [10][12]. - **Market Dynamics**: The relationship between monetary cycles and real estate cycles is crucial, with monetary indicators leading real estate trends by 6-8 months [4][18]. - **Investment Focus**: Future investment opportunities may lie in high-yield assets and properties that align with demographic trends, such as retirement communities and digital nomad-friendly developments [15][16]. - **Price Stabilization**: Price stabilization in cities like Urumqi and Harbin is attributed to both active market conditions and external economic factors, including the Belt and Road Initiative [17][19]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current real estate market landscape in China.

智通财经APP获悉，9月24日，克而瑞地产发布2025年上半年房企盈利能力报告。2025年上半年，行业典型上市 房企整体实现营业收入12868亿元，同比下降15%；营业成本11454亿元，同比下降16%。营业收入在2023年短暂 回升后，2024年再次出现加速下滑态势，2025年上半年营收规模跌幅略有收窄。从毛利润来看，从2021年开始就 保持下滑趋势，2025年上半年典型上市房企实现毛利润1414亿元，同比下滑9%。 从净利润及归母净利润来看，由于营收规模下滑、资产减值等诸多因素，自2022年起，行业典型上市房企的净利 润出现大幅亏损，2023年净利润亏损扩大至2762亿，2024年进一步扩大至3397亿，2025年上半年净利润亏损达 902亿，归母净利润亏损954亿，行业净利润已连续四年亏损，整体行业盈利表现不容乐观。 2025年上半年，房地产企业营收与盈利双降，行业净利润依旧保持亏损状态，一方面结转物业利润空间下降，此 外存货及应付款项均存在减值风险，合联营投资亏损也成为净利亏损的重要因素。 展望2025年下半年，在最近的业绩会中，部分头部房企给出了不同角度的预判。绿城管理层认为，行业正处 在"三变三不 ...

21世纪经济报道记者 张敏 9月22日晚间，*ST金科发布公告称，根据重整计划，管理人已将30亿股转增股票过户至全体重整投资 人指定的主体证券账户。此次过户后，*ST金科的控股股东将由金科控股变更为京渝星筑和京渝星璨， 实际控制人则由黄红云变更为无实际控制人。 据悉，*ST金科将于近期启动董事会的换届改选工作，产业投资人上海品器联合体有权提名7名董事人 选。 这个变化意味着，执掌金科27年的黄红云，有可能彻底失去掌控权。 *ST金科是金科股份的简称，这家重庆房企曾是我国西南地区最大的房地产企业。2022年末，金科股份 出现债务违约，随后选择重整作为解决方案。其重整方案于今年5月获批，涉及债务规模高达1470亿 元，为房地产行业迄今为止最大的重整案。 根据该方案，金科引进上海品器联合体、中国长城资产、四川发展证券基金作为产业投资人参与重整， 产业投资人成为新的控股股东后，将对公司进行全方位调整。 随着金科股份董事会换届在即，该重整案正临近终局。分析人士指出，对于当下的房地产业而言，金科 的重整有着较强的样本意义。其未来的治理模式和发展方向，也值得持续关注。 金科股份成立于1998年，总部位于重庆。在房地产市场化 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yuexiu Property has developed a unique "scene-based deep cultivation" strategy through a comprehensive community ecosystem that integrates customer insights, spatial innovation, and resource ecology, enhancing customer engagement and brand loyalty [2][4][27] Group 1: Strategic Elevation - The community strategy is not merely a customer maintenance tool but is rooted in deep considerations for corporate strategic transformation, initiated in 2021 with extensive customer research involving over 43,000 homeowners [4][6] - The company has established a "1+N" community platform operation matrix, centered around the brand "Love Yue Club," integrating online content communities, offline community spaces, and lifestyle brands to create a service loop throughout the customer lifecycle [4][6] Group 2: Scene Reconstruction - Yuexiu's core competitiveness lies in the "scene + content" operation of spaces, achieving a 20% reduction in sustainable operating costs through product branding and standardization [10][11] - The company has launched various community cultural events and IPs, such as the "Remarkable Little New Star," which has engaged over 28,000 families, enhancing brand and customer stickiness [14][16] - The establishment of the "Yuexiu Life Partner" community co-construction IP aims to link various stakeholders for value co-creation, with over 30 unique community operations incubated [18][20] Group 3: Operational Innovation - Yuexiu's community operations exhibit three differentiated characteristics, focusing on deep collaboration across the customer lifecycle and utilizing tools like the "Love Yue Club" mini-program to connect with a broad customer base [24][25] - The company plans to establish a "customer operation" evaluation model by 2025, assessing brand assets, customer value, and commercial value [25] - The integration of community operation capabilities into a branded platform is part of a broader exploration of sustainable business models, including light asset operations and social capital linkage [26][27]

Core Viewpoint - The forum highlighted the shift in investor focus from high returns to a balanced approach of risk and return, particularly emphasizing the opportunities in the UAE real estate market as a prime investment choice due to its unique advantages and growth potential [3]. Group 1: Forum Overview - The "Global Vision: Middle East Opportunities - 2025 Middle East Real Estate Investment Summit" was held in Shanghai, organized by CRIC, featuring key speakers from various sectors [1]. - Notable presentations included a speech by Lai Yanming, CEO of IFCX Group and Asia Bankers Club, discussing asset pricing choices from a risk-return perspective [2]. Group 2: Market Insights - The global economic slowdown has led investors to prioritize a balanced approach to risk and return, affecting pricing strategies across developers, consumer psychology, and institutional market choices [3]. - Emerging markets, particularly the Middle East, are becoming increasingly important for investment, with the UAE standing out due to its strategic location and abundant oil and gas resources [3]. - The UAE's real estate market is experiencing rapid growth, supported by diverse developments in finance, tourism, and digital economy, alongside a continuous influx of population [3]. - The UAE's advantages in economy, finance, property rights, and services are expected to remain unmatched by other regions for a considerable time, making it a prime location for real estate investment [3]. - The transfer of global financial centers to Dubai and Abu Dhabi indicates a significant opportunity for real estate investment and sovereign wealth fund transfers, positioning UAE real estate as an excellent choice for balancing risk and return [3].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry in China continues to face significant challenges, with a decline in both revenue and profit, leading to a net profit loss for four consecutive years. The industry is undergoing deep adjustments, and companies must adapt their operational strategies to ensure profitability and navigate through the current cycle [3][6][18]. Group 1: Revenue and Profit Decline - The overall revenue of typical listed real estate companies decreased by 15% to 12,868 billion, while gross profit fell by 9% [4][6]. - The gross profit margin for the industry was recorded at 10.87%, with a net profit margin of -7.45%, indicating a sustained loss [8][6]. - The net profit loss reached 902 billion, with attributable net profit loss at 954 billion, marking a continuous decline in profitability since 2022 [6][8]. Group 2: Industry Trends - 66% of real estate companies reported net profit losses, with four companies experiencing losses exceeding 10 billion [12][15]. - The industry’s return on equity (ROE) has further declined, remaining at historically low levels [15]. - Nearly 60% of companies saw a decrease in gross profit, while operational business recovery is essential for improving profitability [15][12]. Group 3: Inventory and Asset Valuation - The period saw inventory impairment losses amounting to 49.4 billion, with over 70% of companies recognizing such losses [13][16]. - The fair value of investment properties suffered a loss of 3.3 billion due to declining demand in commercial properties [16][13]. - The overall income from investment properties decreased by 3%, accounting for 5% of total revenue [11][23]. Group 4: Strategic Shifts - Companies are shifting focus from scale expansion to quality competition, with asset operations becoming a stabilizing factor during the cycle [17][19]. - Major firms are planning to enhance their operational capabilities and asset management through public REITs and other innovative financing methods [21][19]. - The industry outlook suggests that the second half of 2025 or 2026 could be pivotal for market stabilization, emphasizing the need for precise investment and product upgrades [19][18].