Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Silicon Industry Chain Enterprise Risk Management Daily [1] - Date: May 30, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Dai Hongxu, Yu Weihan [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Industrial silicon: The fundamentals remain weak, but the open interest has reached a record high. Be vigilant about the market fluctuations caused by short - covering. The overall industry is in the cycle of eliminating backward production capacity, with continuous supply surplus pressure. The approaching flood season may lead to further inventory accumulation, and the demand side is weak [2][3]. - Polysilicon: The fundamentals are also weak. The spread between the 06 - 07 contracts is strengthening. Be cautious about the spread of the delivery logic of the PS2506 contract to the PS2507 contract. The market is in a state where fundamentals and delivery logic alternate, with wide - range fluctuations on the futures market [3]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the arbitrage opportunities between SI and PS [3] Group 4: Price Forecast and Volatility - Industrial silicon: The price of the main contract has a strong resistance level at 7900 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 26.7% and a historical percentile of 83.5% over 3 years [2]. - Polysilicon: The price of the main contract is expected to oscillate widely between 34000 - 38000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 26.78% and a historical percentile of 65% over 3 years [2] Group 5: Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - To prevent inventory impairment, short industrial silicon/polysilicon futures (SI2507/PS2507) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 60% and a strategy rating of 3 [2]. - If product inventory is high and there is a risk of inventory impairment, sell call options with a hedging ratio of 80% and a strategy rating of 4, and buy out - of - the - money put options with a strategy rating of 3 [2]. Procurement Management - If the company has a production plan and there is a risk of rising raw material prices, buy forward contracts of industrial silicon/polysilicon to lock in procurement costs, with a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy rating of 1 [2]. - Sell put options with a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy rating of 2, and buy out - of - the - money call options with a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy rating of 1 [2] Group 6: Core Contradictions Industrial Silicon - Supply: The industry is in the stage of eliminating backward production capacity, with continuous supply surplus pressure. The approaching flood season may lead to increased production in Southwest China and further inventory accumulation [3]. - Demand: The demand side is weak, with downstream enterprises bargaining for lower prices. There are still expectations of production cuts in polysilicon and organic silicon, the main downstream consumers [3]. Polysilicon - Supply: The production remains stable, and high - inventory pressure persists. Potential capacity integration may improve the industry situation [3]. - Demand: The support from downstream demand has weakened significantly after the end of the PV installation rush, and the demand - side support is insufficient [3]. - Futures Market: As the delivery month approaches, the contradiction between open interest and warehouse receipts will become more prominent, and the price fluctuations will increase [3] Group 7:利多 and利空 Factors Industrial Silicon - Bullish factors: Positive domestic macro - policies may stimulate power demand, and the cost side has strong support as the short - term collapse space is limited [4]. - Bearish factors: The production capacity in Southwest China is expected to be released as the flood season approaches, and there are actual production cuts in downstream polysilicon enterprises, with inventory continuing to accumulate and weak demand [6][7] Polysilicon - Bullish factors: Potential capacity integration may improve the industry situation, and the low willingness of enterprises for delivery may lead to a delivery - based market logic [4]. - Bearish factors: The failure of enterprise integration and continued inventory accumulation with weak demand [15] Group 8: Market Data Futures Market - Industrial silicon: The latest price of the main contract is 7215 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 125 yuan, a weekly decline of 665 yuan (- 8.44%), and an annual decline of 41.53%. The trading volume is 539683 lots, and the open interest is 224146 lots [7]. - Polysilicon: The latest price of the main contract is 35280 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 180 yuan, a weekly decline of 800 yuan (- 2.22%). The trading volume is 145339 lots, and the open interest is 78271 lots [7] Spot Market - Industrial silicon: The prices of various grades in different regions are provided, such as 8500 yuan/ton for East China 553, 9200 yuan/ton for East China 421, etc. The basis and price spreads are also given [14][16] Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - Industrial silicon: The total number of warehouse receipts is 63868 lots, with a decrease of 418 lots (- 3.22%). The inventory in different delivery warehouses is reported, such as 8.8 million tons in the Kunming delivery warehouse (weekly) [24]

Group 1: Report Title and Authors - The report focuses on nickel and stainless steel, predicting a short - term wide - range oscillating trend [1] - The research team is the Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team, including Xia Yingying and Guan Chenghan [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The intraday Shanghai nickel bottomed out and oscillated. The news of Indonesia's quota increase to 3.2 billion tons needs verification, and the premium has increased. There is an expected increase in the supply of Philippine nickel ore, and the impact of the rainy season is gradually weakening. The nickel - iron price stabilized during the day. Some steel mills in China and Indonesia announced production cuts, mainly affecting the output of 200 - series and 300 - series stainless steel. The demand in the off - season is sluggish. The nickel salt in the new energy chain declined due to the nickel price. The external market corrected to some extent, and the subsequent trend of LME nickel should be monitored [3] - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include the Sino - US trade tariff agreement and the Philippine government's plan to ban nickel ore exports in June 2025. Negative factors include the increasing supply of ore at the end of the Philippine rainy season, high stainless - steel inventory with no obvious improvement in demand, anti - dumping investigations by multiple stainless - steel trading countries, and the news of Indonesia's quota increase [4] Group 4: Price and Market Data Nickel - The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 15.01% and a historical percentile of 2.8% [2] - The latest values of Shanghai nickel main contract, continuous 1, continuous 2, and continuous 3 are 120,480 yuan/ton, 123,000 yuan/ton, 123,150 yuan/ton, and 123,370 yuan/ton respectively. The LME nickel 3M is 15,095 US dollars/ton. The trading volume increased by 14.07% to 181,192 lots, the open interest decreased by 3.91% to 102,540 lots, the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 0.78% to 22,170 tons, and the basis of the main contract increased by 29.8% to - 1,980 yuan/ton [2][5] Stainless Steel - The latest values of stainless - steel main contract, continuous 1, continuous 2, and continuous 3 are 12,690 yuan/ton, 12,875 yuan/ton, 12,925 yuan/ton, and 12,735 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume decreased by 20.33% to 139,550 lots, the open interest decreased by 1.13% to 101,554 lots, the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 1.25% to 131,555 tons, and the basis of the main contract increased by 21.47% to 990 yuan/ton [6] Group 5: Inventory Data - Domestic social nickel inventory is 42,389 tons, a decrease of 1,762 tons; LME nickel inventory is 200,142 tons, a decrease of 720 tons; stainless - steel social inventory is 973.9 tons, a decrease of 6.8 tons; nickel pig iron inventory is 29,554.5 tons, an increase of 1,158 tons [7] Group 6: Management Strategies Inventory Management - When the product sales price falls and there is a risk of inventory impairment, short Shanghai nickel futures according to the inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against the risk of spot price decline, with a hedging ratio of 60%. Sell call options with a hedging ratio of 50% [2] Procurement Management - When the company has future production and procurement needs and is worried about the rise in raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs in advance on the futures market. Also, sell put options and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio determined by the procurement plan [2] Group 7: Graphical Information - There are graphs showing the trends of Shanghai nickel futures main contract closing price, LME nickel (3 - month) electronic - disk closing price, stainless - steel main contract closing price, nickel spot average price,上期所镍仓单库存 seasonality, Philippine red - laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB) average price, production profit rate of nickel sulfate by different raw materials, battery - grade nickel sulfate premium over first - grade nickel beans, Chinese 8 - 12% nickel pig iron ex - factory price, and Chinese 304 stainless - steel cold - rolled coil profit rate seasonality, etc. [8][10][12][13][15][17][21][22][23]

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: May 29, 2025 - Analysts: Yuan Ming (Z0012648), Chen Mintao (F03118345) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The overall valuation of ferrosilicon lacks upward momentum, and its price center is expected to remain weak at a low level. The ferromanganese market is expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to downstream demand recovery, supply - side changes, and manganese ore shipping performance [3] Summary by Relevant Content Price Range Forecast and Volatility - Ferrosilicon price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 19.19%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 59.5% - Ferromanganese price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 29.19%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 86.6% [2] Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventory of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, they can short ferrosilicon and ferromanganese futures (SF2509, SM2509) according to their inventory. The hedging ratio is 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250 yuan/ton, SM: 6400 - 6500 yuan/ton [2] Procurement Management - For enterprises with low procurement of regular inventory, to prevent the increase in procurement costs due to the rise of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese prices, they can buy ferrosilicon and ferromanganese futures (SF2509, SM2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The hedging ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton, SM: 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton [2] Core Contradictions - For ferrosilicon, the high - level inventory of thermal coal at ports, the continuous weak decline of the coal sector, the continuous production reduction of ferrosilicon, the difficulty in significant growth of the demand side, and the possibility of further decline in the cost side all lead to the lack of upward momentum in the overall valuation - For ferromanganese, affected by the policy disturbances in South Africa on Thursday, but the policy implementation takes a long time. The ferromanganese price rose first and then fell. The weak demand and high inventory limit the price increase, and the market has digested the impact of the South African policy [3] 利多 Factors Ferrosilicon - High steel mill profitability will maintain high hot metal production, which supports the demand for ferrosilicon - The low valuation of ferrosilicon due to continuous decline has the possibility of rebound - The weekly operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises is 30.42%, a decrease of 0.8% compared with last week, and the weekly output is 8.89 tons, a decrease of 4.92% compared with last week [7] Ferromanganese - The government's strict control policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to the industrial structure adjustment and upgrading of the ferromanganese industry - Although the total inventory of ferromanganese is at a high level, it shows a de - stocking trend [7] 利空 Factors Ferrosilicon - The high - level inventory of ferrosilicon suppresses its price - The high - level inventory of thermal coal at ports and the continuous weakness of the coal sector indicate that there is room for further decline in the electricity cost of ferroalloys - The hot metal output begins to decline [8][11] Ferromanganese - In the long run, the sluggish real estate market, the decline of the black sector as a whole, and the doubts about the growth of the terminal demand for steel lead to relatively weak demand for ferromanganese - The high factory inventory and high warehouse receipts, and the increase in the total inventory, suppress the price increase [8] Daily Data Ferrosilicon - On May 28, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 148 yuan/ton, the 01 - 05 spread was - 28 yuan/ton, the 05 - 09 spread was 78 yuan/ton, and the 09 - 01 spread was - 50 yuan/ton - The spot prices in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Shaanxi, and Gansu were 5350 yuan/ton, 5420 yuan/ton, 5400 yuan/ton, 5350 yuan/ton, and 5450 yuan/ton respectively - The number of warehouse receipts was 16,953 [9] Ferromanganese - On May 28, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 294 yuan/ton, the 01 - 05 spread was - 52 yuan/ton, the 05 - 09 spread was 94 yuan/ton, and the 09 - 01 spread was - 42 yuan/ton - The spot prices in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, Guangxi, and Yunnan were 5400 yuan/ton, 5500 yuan/ton, 5500 yuan/ton, 5550 yuan/ton, and 5500 yuan/ton respectively - The prices of Tianjin Australian ore, Tianjin South African ore, Tianjin Gabonese ore, Qinzhou South African ore, and Qinzhou Gabonese ore were 41.5 yuan/ton, 33.2 yuan/ton, 36.8 yuan/ton, 34 yuan/ton, and 39 yuan/ton respectively - The price of Inner Mongolia chemical coke was 960 yuan/ton - The number of warehouse receipts was 111,154 [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The Sino-US tariff reduction is expected to benefit the domestic textile and apparel export market, but the current industrial performance shows limited order growth. The suspension of Trump's "Liberation Day" trade policy by the US court is conducive to the further recovery of export orders, yet the actual implementation remains to be verified. The domestic downstream market is cautious, and cotton prices may remain in a narrow range in the short term. With the off - season of demand, the driving force for a cotton price rebound is insufficient. Attention should be paid to weather changes in production areas and further adjustments to US foreign tariffs [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast - The monthly price range of cotton is predicted to be between 12,800 and 13,700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.1087 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.235 [3]. Cotton Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 13,600 - 13,800 to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (CF509C13800) at a 75% hedging ratio in the range of 200 - 250 to collect premiums and lower costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and willing to purchase according to orders, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 12,600 - 12,800 to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (CF509P12800) at a 75% hedging ratio in the range of 150 - 200 to collect premiums and lower procurement costs [3]. Market Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: In the 24/25 season, northern Xinjiang cotton has high impurity content, leading to a shortage of high - quality resources. Most of the remaining cotton is held by large ginning enterprises and traders, making the cotton basis strong. Downstream gauze mills have high operating loads and rigid restocking needs. The cancellation of the Sino - US fentanyl tariff is beneficial for export orders [5][7]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The processing cost of new cotton in northern Xinjiang in the 24/25 season is around 15,000 yuan/ton, and some new cotton has not been hedged. The downstream market is in the traditional off - season, and the increase in export orders due to Sino - US tariff reduction is limited. Downstream sales are slow, and subsequent orders remain uncertain, with a strong wait - and - see attitude [7]. Cotton and Yarn Futures Prices - Cotton 01 closed at 13,390, up 15 (0.11%); Cotton 05 closed at 13,410, up 10 (0.07%); Cotton 09 closed at 13,320, down 10 (-0.08%); Yarn 01 closed at 19,665, down 100% (unchanged value); Yarn 05 closed at 0, down 100%; Yarn 09 closed at 19,525, down 40 (-0.2%) [6][8]. Cotton and Yarn Price Spreads - Cotton basis was 1,258, up 16; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was - 20, up 5; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was 90, up 20; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was - 70, down 25; Cotton - yarn spread was 6,275, up 15; Domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,077, down 23; Domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 630, unchanged [9]. Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Indexes - CCI 3128B was 14,578, up 6 (0.04%); CCI 2227B was 12,755, up 11 (0.09%); CCI 2129B was 14,857, up 11 (0.07%); FCI Index S was 13,660, down 10 (-0.07%); FCI Index M was 13,484, down 11 (-0.08%); FCI Index L was 13,294, down 10 (-0.08%) [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The near - term contradictions of caustic soda are limited. The supply - side maintenance and strong near - term demand support the spot. But in the medium term, the market logic may shift to the resumption of maintenance and the third - quarter production expectations. Demand has an increase but is insufficient to reverse the situation, and the acceptance of high - price caustic soda by downstream industries such as non - aluminum is limited. The upside of caustic soda is limited, and it may wait for signs of weakness on the spot side [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2400 - 2600, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 24.25% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 47.9% [3] Risk Management Strategy Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory, to prevent inventory depreciation, short caustic soda futures (SH2509) at 50% hedging ratio in the range of 2600 - 2650; sell call options (SH509C2600) at 50% hedging ratio in the range of 60 - 70 to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [3] Procurement Management - For low regular inventory, to prevent price increases in procurement, buy caustic soda futures (SH2509) at 50% hedging ratio in the range of 2350 - 2400; sell put options (SH509P2400) at 50% hedging ratio in the range of 70 - 80 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the price falls [3] Core Contradiction - In the short term, the fundamentals are supported, there is no obvious pressure on the spot, and there is no obvious downward driving force. In the long - term, there is production pressure, which limits the price ceiling. The short - term is generally treated as a sideways trend [4] 利多解读 - In the short term, the fundamentals have no obvious pressure; there are still many maintenance plans in June; the profit of the alumina on the demand side has improved, with a resumption of production expectation; the non - aluminum export rush has improved [4] 利空解读 - In the long - term, there is an oversupply pressure, with a concentrated production expectation on the supply side, and the demand increment is insufficient to support a market reversal [5] Caustic Soda Disk Price/Month Spread | | 2025 - 05 - 29 | 2025 - 05 - 28 | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Caustic Soda 05 Contract | 2428 | 2408 | 20 | 0.83% | | Caustic Soda 09 Contract | 2479 | 2456 | 23 | 0.94% | | Caustic Soda 01 Contract | 2380 | 2363 | 17 | 0.72% | | Month Spread (5 - 9) | - 51 | - 48 | - 3 | | | Month Spread (9 - 1) | 99 | 93 | 6 | | | Month Spread (1 - 5) | - 48 | - 45 | - 3 | | | 05 Contract Basis (Shandong Jinling) | 384.5 | 404.5 | - 20 | | | 09 Contract Basis (Shandong Jinling) | 333.5 | 356.5 | - 23 | | [6] Liquid Caustic Soda/Flake Caustic Soda Spot Situation - Most prices of liquid caustic soda (32% and 50%) and flake caustic soda in different regions remained unchanged on May 29, 2025, compared with the previous day, except for a 1.2% increase in the 32% liquid caustic soda price of Shandong Lutai and a 0.7% increase in the flake caustic soda price in the Southwest region [7] Caustic Soda Grade/Regional Spread - Most caustic soda grade/regional spreads remained unchanged on May 29, 2025, compared with the previous day, except for a 10 - point increase in the 50% caustic soda spread between Guangdong and Shandong [8]

Report Overview - Report Name: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Risk Management Daily - Date: May 29, 2025 - Author: Shou Jialu (Investment Consultation License No.: Z0020569) - Investment Consultation Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 1. Price Range Forecast - Glass price range (monthly): 900 - 1200, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 27.81%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 46.6% [2] - Soda ash price range (monthly): 1100 - 1350, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 25.00%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 30.3% [2] 2. Hedging Strategies Glass - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline, sell FG2509 futures at a 50% ratio when the price reaches 1100 to lock in profits and cover production costs [2] - Sell FG509 C1200 call options at a 50% ratio with an entry range of 20 - 30 to collect premiums, reduce costs, and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2] Soda Ash - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline, sell SA2509 futures at a 50% ratio when the price reaches 1300 to lock in profits and cover production costs [2] - Sell SA509 C1300 call options at a 50% ratio with an entry range of 30 - 40 to collect premiums, reduce costs, and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2] 3. Core Contradictions Glass - Supply chain faces over - supply pressure; in the off - season of demand with weak expectations, but no new cold - repair expectations have been triggered [3] Soda Ash - There is a consensus on over - supply expectations, and new production capacity is expected in the long - term; costs are continuously decreasing, and there are still profits in the supply chain [3] 4. Bullish Factors Glass - Supply remains in a low - level fluctuation state; the futures price is approaching the full - supply - chain loss state; low prices lead to cold - repair expectation disturbances [3] Soda Ash - Manufacturer maintenance from May to June is gradually being realized; exports exceed expectations, alleviating domestic over - supply pressure [3] 5. Bearish Factors Glass - There are still ignition expectations on the supply side, and no large - scale cold - repair expectations; actual demand is weak; overall social inventory is high, and the off - season is approaching [3] Soda Ash - New production capacity continues to be put into operation; social inventory is at an absolute historical high; there are still profits in the supply chain [3] 6. View Summaries Glass - If the low price persists, focus on the increase in cold - repair expectations. Although the glass valuation is relatively low, the short - term fundamentals and cost support are weak [3] Soda Ash - The futures market is under continuous pressure. New production capacity may gradually release output, and maintenance fails to provide short - term support. With cost reduction and remaining supply - chain profits, it should be treated bearishly. Further price cuts from soda ash manufacturers are needed to drive the price down [3] 7. Price and Spread Data Glass - On May 29, 2025, the 05 - contract price was 1101 (down 13 from the previous day, - 1.17%); the 09 - contract price was 985 (down 24, - 2.38%); the 01 - contract price was 1049 (down 19, - 1.78%) [3][5] - The 5 - 9 month - spread was 116 (up 11 from the previous day); the 9 - 1 month - spread was - 64 (down 5); the 1 - 5 month - spread was - 52 (down 6) [5] - The 05 - contract basis in Shahe was 50 (up 8.4); in Hubei, it was 19 (up 73); the 09 - contract basis in Shahe was 165.6 (up 19.4); in Hubei, it was 55 (up 4) [5] - The average spot price of glass in Shahe was 1150.6 (down 4.6 from the previous day) [6] Soda Ash - On May 29, 2025, the 05 - contract price was 1253 (down 7 from the previous day, - 0.56%); the 09 - contract price was 1203 (down 12, - 0.99%); the 01 - contract price was 1201 (down 6, - 0.5%) [7] - The 5 - 9 month - spread was 50 (up 5 from the previous day, 11.11%); the 9 - 1 month - spread was 2 (down 6, - 75%); the 1 - 5 month - spread was - 52 (up 1, - 1.89%) [7] - The heavy - alkali basis in Shahe was 52 (up 12); in Qinghai, it was - 103 (up 12) [7] - The heavy - alkali market price in Shahe on May 29 was 1243 (down 12 from the previous day) [7]

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至5月29日收盘主力合约对二甲苯2509,涨跌+2.41%,成交量45.64万手，持仓数据显示前20席位呈现 净空，差额头寸为1189手。 对二甲苯期货全合约总计成交56.96万手，比上一日新增18.78万手。全合约前20席位多头持仓19.01万手，比上一日增加1802手。 全合约前20席位空头持仓19.23万手，比上一日减少3421手。 根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为国泰君安，总持仓23030、中信期货，总持仓20112、银河期货，总持仓19011；空头前三席位 为国泰君安，总持仓37056、中信期货，总持仓23162、恒力期货，总持仓10511； 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：中信期货、持仓15099、增仓5389，东证期货、持仓8952、增仓4400，国泰君安、 持仓14058、增仓2109；多头减仓前三名分别是：银河期货、持仓13540、减仓-916，恒力期货、持仓1843、减仓-205，华泰期 货、持仓3706、减仓-178； 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：国泰君安、持仓27953、增仓2524，中泰期货、持仓2309、增仓1477，中财期货 ...

| 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 11.7-12.6 | 15.02% | 2.8% | source： 南华研究,wind 沪镍管理策略 镍&不锈钢：基本面与宏观整体偏空 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号：Z0016569 管城瀚 从业资格证号：F0313867 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 沪镍区间预测 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 策略等级（满分 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | | 向 | | 5） | | 库存管 | 产品销售价格下跌，库存有减值风险 | 根据库存水平做空沪镍期货来锁定利润，对冲现货下跌风 险 | 沪镍主力合约 卖出 | | 60% | 2 | | 理 | | | 场外/场内期 | | | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | 权 | 卖出 | 50% | 2 | | 采购管 理 | 涨 | 根据生产计划买入沪镍远期合约，盘面提前采购锁 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon: The fundamentals remain weak, but the trading volume has reached a record high. Be vigilant of market fluctuations caused by short - covering. There is a supply surplus, and the demand is weak. Consider shorting industrial silicon and longing polysilicon for arbitrage opportunities [3]. - Polysilicon: The fundamentals are still weak. The price difference between the 06 - 07 contracts is strengthening. Be cautious of the spread of the delivery logic of the PS06 contract to the PS07 contract. Look for positive arbitrage opportunities between the 07 - 08/07 - 09 contracts of polysilicon. The market is in a state of alternating fundamentals and delivery logic, with wide - range fluctuations [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Volatility - Industrial silicon: The price of the main contract faces strong resistance at 8000. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 27.3%, and the historical percentile of volatility in the past 3 years is 83.7% [2]. - Polysilicon: The price of the main contract fluctuates widely between 34000 - 38000. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 28.94%, and the historical percentile of volatility in the past 3 years is 85% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies 3.2.1 Inventory Management - To prevent inventory impairment, sell industrial silicon/polysilicon futures (SI2507/PS2507) with a hedging ratio of 60% and a strategy level of 3 [2]. - When product inventory is high and there is a risk of impairment, sell call options with a hedging ratio of 80% and a strategy level of 4, and buy out - of - the - money put options with a strategy level of 3 [2]. 3.2.2 Procurement Management - To prevent future raw material price increases, buy far - month industrial silicon/polysilicon contracts according to the production plan, with a strategy level of 1. Sell put options with a strategy level of 2, and buy out - of - the - money call options with a strategy level of 1 [2]. 3.3 Core Contradictions 3.3.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: In the process of eliminating backward production capacity, with the approaching of the wet season, enterprises in the southwest are increasing furnace operation, and there is a risk of further inventory accumulation [3]. - Demand: Overall weak, downstream enterprises are bargaining for purchases, and there are still expectations of production cuts in the future [3]. 3.3.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Production is stable, but high - inventory pressure persists. If there are plans for capacity integration and elimination, it may improve the industry situation [3]. - Demand: The support from downstream demand has significantly weakened after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush [3]. - Futures: As the delivery month approaches, the contradiction between the number of positions and warehouse receipts will become prominent, and the price fluctuations will increase [3]. 3.4利多解读 3.4.1 Industrial Silicon - Macro - policy support may stimulate power demand growth, and the long - term industry is in an upward cycle. The cost has limited room for further decline, providing strong cost support [4]. 3.4.2 Polysilicon - There may be plans for capacity integration and elimination in the industry, which could improve the industry situation. Enterprises are not very willing to deliver, and the market follows the delivery logic [4]. 3.5利空解读 3.5.1 Industrial Silicon - With the approaching of the wet season, production capacity is being released, and downstream enterprises are rumored to jointly cut production, further weakening demand [7]. 3.5.2 Polysilicon - The capacity integration and elimination plan fails, and the inventory continues to accumulate with weak demand [16]. 3.6 Market Data 3.6.1 Futures Market - Industrial silicon: The latest price of the main contract is 7340 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 6.85%. The trading volume is 624841 lots, a weekly increase of 199.83%. The position is 226069 lots, a weekly increase of 23.07% [8]. - Polysilicon: The latest price of the main contract is 35100 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 2.72%. The trading volume is 153272 lots, a weekly increase of 21.39%. The position is 79868 lots, a weekly increase of 3.33% [8]. 3.6.2 Spot Market - Industrial silicon: The prices of different grades in various regions are provided, such as 8500 yuan/ton for East China 553 and 9200 yuan/ton for East China 421. The basis and price difference data are also given [15][17].

铁合金产业风险管理日报 2025/5/28 袁铭（Z0012648）陈敏涛（F03118345 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁合金价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁 | 5300-6000 | 17.64% | 50.0% | | 硅锰 | 5300-6000 | 28.91% | 86.0% | source： 南华研究 铁合金套保 | 行为导 向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心铁合金 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空铁合 | SF2509、SM | 卖出 | 15% | SF:6200-6250、SM: | | 理 | 下跌 | | 金期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | 2509 | | | ...