Report Overall Summary - **Report Date**: July 9, 2025 - **Report Type**: Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy - **Companies Covered**: Nickel, Stainless Steel, Lithium Carbonate, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - **Nickel**: The upside potential is limited, and nickel prices are under pressure at low levels [2][4]. - **Stainless Steel**: Inventories are slightly digested, and steel prices are recovering, but the recovery is limited [2][5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the subsequent position volume [2][11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Emotional disturbances are increasing [2][14]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy - side measures [2][14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,370, down 170 from the previous day. For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 12,700, up 60 from the previous day. Other data such as trading volume, spot prices, and spreads also showed various changes [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were events like Ontario potentially halting nickel exports to the US, the trial - production of an Indonesian nickel - iron project, the resumption of a nickel smelter, and the shutdown of an Indonesian cold - rolling mill [5][6][7][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0 [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 63,880, up 220 from the previous day. The position volume and other related data also had corresponding changes. The production in June 2025 was 7.40 million tons, with a 5.7% month - on - month increase, and the planned production in July was 7.93 million tons, with a 7.1% month - on - month increase [11][12][13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased, and there were production changes in different regions [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0 [13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2509 contract was 8,215, up 170 from the previous day. For polysilicon, the closing price of the PS2508 contract was 38,385, up 1,870 from the previous day. There were also changes in trading volume, position volume, spreads, and inventory data [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The A - share market's steel and photovoltaic sectors had a涨停潮, and there were production reduction actions in the photovoltaic and cement industries [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1 [16].

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals by Guotai Junan Futures on July 4, 2025, covering copper, tin, nickel, and stainless steel [1][2] Core Views - Copper: The rise of the US dollar restricts price increases [2] - Tin: The macro - environment drives the price up [2] - Nickel: The support from the ore end is loosening, and the smelting end limits the upside potential [2] - Stainless steel: Inventory is slightly decreasing marginally, and the steel price is recovering but with limited elasticity [2] Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 80,560 with a daily increase of 0.02%, and the night - session closing price was 80,540 with a decline of - 0.02%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,952 with a decline of - 0.58% [4] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Copper futures inventory was 24,103, a decrease of 994; LME Copper inventory was 94,325, an increase of 1,075 [4] - **Spreads**: The LME copper ascension discount was 87.61, a decrease of 8.59 compared to the previous day [4] Macro and Industry News - US non - farm payrolls in June increased by 147,000, exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1% [4] - Western Mining's Yulong Copper Mine Phase III project was approved, with the production scale increasing to 30 million tons/year [4] - The TC/RC negotiation result between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters in mid - 2025 was set at 0.0 US dollars/kiloton and 0.0 US cents/pound [4] Trend Intensity - Copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [6] Tin Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 268,420 with a decline of - 0.04%, and the night - session closing price was 269,130 with an increase of 0.04%. The LME Tin 3M electronic disk closed at 33,805 with an increase of 0.66% [8] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Tin futures inventory was 6,882, a decrease of 6; LME Tin inventory was 2,165, a decrease of 50 [8] - **Spreads**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 266,500, a decrease of 700 compared to the previous day [8] Macro and Industry News - The "Big Beautiful" bill passed in the US House of Representatives by a narrow margin, bringing a deficit of 3.4 trillion [9] - The US non - farm payroll report was unexpectedly strong, and the market abandoned the bet on a rate cut in July [9] Trend Intensity - Tin trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [10] Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,790, and the stainless - steel main contract was 12,710 [11] - **Spreads**: The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 909, a decrease of 2 compared to the previous day [11] Macro and Industry News - The governor of Ontario, Canada, proposed to stop exporting nickel to the US in response to US tariff threats [11] - The CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project in Indonesia entered the trial production stage [12] - An important nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [13][14] Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity is 0, both indicating a neutral view [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily analysis and forecasts for various commodities in the futures market, including metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity's trend is influenced by different factors such as macro - environment, supply - demand balance, and industry news [2][5]. 3. Summaries According to Commodity Categories Metals Copper - Core view: The rise of the US dollar restricts the price increase [6]. - Fundamental data: Shanghai copper main contract closed at 80,560 yuan with a daily increase of 0.02%; LME copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,952 dollars with a decrease of 0.58% [6]. - News: The US June non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, and several copper - related projects and production data were reported [6][8]. Tin - Core view: Driven by the macro - environment, the price goes up [9]. - Fundamental data: Shanghai tin main contract closed at 268,420 yuan with a daily decrease of 0.04%; LME tin 3M electronic disk closed at 33,805 dollars with an increase of 0.66% [10]. - News: A series of macro - economic news from the US and other countries was reported [11]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Core view: For nickel, the support from the ore end has loosened, and the smelting end limits the upside elasticity; for stainless steel, the inventory has slightly decreased marginally, and the steel price has recovered but with limited elasticity [13]. - Fundamental data: Various price and trading volume data of nickel and stainless steel futures and spot are provided [13]. - News: There are news about potential export restrictions, new production projects, and production resumptions in the nickel industry [13][14][15]. Lithium Carbonate - Core view: The inventory accumulation pattern continues, and attention should be paid to the upside space [19]. - Fundamental data: A large amount of data on lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, trading volumes, and inventories are presented [20]. - News: The index price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased, and there were rumors about lithium salt factory overhauls [21][22]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Core view: For industrial silicon, the sentiment is fermenting, and the disk fluctuation is magnified; for polysilicon, market news is fermenting, and the disk fluctuation intensifies [23][24]. - Fundamental data: A wide range of data on industrial silicon and polysilicon futures and spot prices, trading volumes, and inventories are provided [24]. - News: Tongwei Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary completed a strategic capital increase [26]. Iron and Steel Products - Core view: Both rebar and hot - rolled coils are boosted by macro - sentiment and are in a strong - side shock [28][29]. - Fundamental data: Price, trading volume, and other data of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot are given [29]. - News: Steel production, inventory, and demand data, as well as relevant economic policies, are reported [30][31]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Core view: Both are in wide - range shocks [32]. - Fundamental data: Futures and spot price data of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are provided [32]. - News: Price quotes and production reduction news of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are reported [33]. Coke and Coking Coal - Core view: The anti - involution signal is fermenting, and both are in a strong - side shock [35]. - Fundamental data: Futures and spot price data of coke and coking coal are provided [35]. - News: Quotes of coking coal in northern ports and CCI metallurgical coal index data are reported [35][36]. Power Coal - Core view: The daily consumption recovers, and the price stabilizes in a shock [39]. - Fundamental data: The previous trading data of power coal futures are provided [40]. - News: Quotes of power coal in southern ports and domestic production areas, as well as position - holding data, are reported [41]. Energy and Chemicals Paraxylene, PTA, and MEG - Core view: Paraxylene is in a tight supply - demand balance, and it is recommended to do positive spreads on dips; for PTA, go long on PX and short on PTA; MEG is in a single - side shock market [43]. - Fundamental data: A large amount of data on futures and spot prices, trading volumes, and processing fees of PX, PTA, and MEG are provided [44]. - News: Market price and production - related news of PX, PTA, and MEG are reported [45][47]. Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - Core view: Rubber is in a shock operation; synthetic rubber's shock operation pattern continues [49][54]. - Fundamental data: Futures and spot price data of rubber and synthetic rubber are provided [50][54]. - News: Order data of tire enterprises and inventory data of synthetic rubber - related products are reported [51][55]. Asphalt - Core view: Temporarily in a shock, pay attention to geopolitical factors [57]. - Fundamental data: Futures and spot price data, as well as inventory and production rate data of asphalt, are provided [57]. - News: Weekly production, factory inventory, and social inventory data of asphalt are reported [69]. LLDPE - Core view: In the short term, it is in a strong - side shock [70]. - Fundamental data: Futures and spot price data of LLDPE are provided [70]. - News: There was an accident at a polyethylene plant, and supply - demand analysis and inventory data are reported [71]. PP - Core view: The spot is in a shock, and the trading is dull [74]. - Fundamental data: Futures and spot price data of PP are provided [74]. - News: The PP futures had a limited impact on the spot market, and trading was weak [75]. Caustic Soda - Core view: Pay attention to the impact of liquid chlorine [77]. - Fundamental data: Futures and spot price data of caustic soda are provided [77]. - News: Supply and demand, cost, and potential production reduction news of caustic soda are reported [78]. Agricultural Products Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Related Products - Core view: Palm oil rises due to the positive sentiment of US soybean oil; soybean oil lacks driving force due to insufficient weather speculation of US soybeans; soybean meal may fluctuate; soybean No.1 is in a spot - stable and disk - shock state [5][55]. - Fundamental data: No detailed fundamental data are provided in the given text. - News: No specific news is provided in the given text. Corn, Sugar, Cotton, etc. - Core view: Corn is in a shock operation; sugar is in a range consolidation; cotton's futures price is supported by the market's optimistic sentiment [59][61][62]. - Fundamental data: No detailed fundamental data are provided in the given text. - News: No specific news is provided in the given text. Eggs, Pigs, and Peanuts - Core view: For eggs, the peak season is approaching, and it is difficult to increase the culling; for pigs, the short - term sentiment is strong; for peanuts, there is support at the bottom [64][65][66]. - Fundamental data: No detailed fundamental data are provided in the given text. - News: No specific news is provided in the given text.

Report Overview - Date: July 4, 2025 - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy - Research Institution: Guotai Junan Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - Nickel: The support at the ore end is loosening, and the smelting end limits the upside elasticity [2][4] - Stainless Steel: Inventory is slightly decreasing marginally, steel prices are recovering but with limited elasticity [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: The inventory accumulation pattern continues, and attention should be paid to the upside space [2][10] - Industrial Silicon: Market sentiment is fermenting, and the volatility of the futures market is amplifying [2][14] - Polysilicon: Market news is fermenting, and the volatility of the futures market is intensifying [2][15] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,790 yuan, up 570 yuan from T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,710 yuan, up 40 yuan from T - 1 [4] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 78,989 lots, up 9,783 lots from T - 1; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 85,411 lots, down 21,358 lots from T - 1 [4] - **Spot Prices**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 121,850 yuan, up 650 yuan from T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 909 yuan, down 2 yuan from T - 1 [4] Macro and Industry News - Ontario, Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [4] - The first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF has entered the trial production stage, with an annual output of about 12,500 tons of metallic nickel per line [5] - A nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [6][7] - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill will continue to shut down for maintenance from June to July, affecting 11 - 13 tons of 300 - series production [7] - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the removal of the raw ore export ban clause [7] - Environmental violations were found in the IMIP in Indonesia, and possible fines may be imposed [7] - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [8] Trend Intensity - Nickel: 0; Stainless Steel: 0 [9] Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the 2507 contract was 64,300 yuan, up 320 yuan from T - 1; the closing price of the 2509 contract was 64,080 yuan, up 120 yuan from T - 1 [11] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the 2507 contract was 764 lots, up 599 lots from T - 1; the trading volume of the 2509 contract was 420,967 lots, down 119,468 lots from T - 1 [11] - **Spot Prices**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,100 yuan, up 450 yuan from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 60,500 yuan, up 450 yuan from T - 1 [11] Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 61,638 yuan/ton, up 306 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [12] - This week, the production of lithium carbonate was 18,123 tons, a decrease of 644 tons from last week, and the industry inventory was 138,347 tons, an increase of 1,510 tons from last week [12] - A lithium salt plant in Jiangxi has a maintenance plan for two months, while a plant in Sichuan is operating normally [13] Trend Intensity - Lithium Carbonate: - 1 [13] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Si2509 contract was 8,010 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan from T - 1; the closing price of the PS2508 contract was 35,050 yuan/ton, up 3,335 yuan from T - 1 [15] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the Si2509 contract was 1,196,542 lots, down 447,106 lots from T - 1; the trading volume of the PS2508 contract was 482,063 lots, up 70,477 lots from T - 1 [15] - **Spot Prices**: The price of East China oxygen - passing Si5530 was 8,700 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan from T - 1; the price of polysilicon - N - type re - feeding material was 36,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 [15] Macro and Industry News - Tongwei Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary, Sichuan Yongxiang Co., Ltd., completed a 4.916 - billion - yuan strategic capital increase and introduced 11 strategic investors [15][17] Trend Intensity - Industrial Silicon: 0; Polysilicon: 0 [17]

Report Overview - Date: July 2, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy - Covered Commodities: Nickel, Stainless Steel, Lithium Carbonate, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Nickel: The support from the ore end is loosening, and the smelting end restricts the upward elasticity [2][4] - Stainless Steel: Inventory is marginally decreasing slightly, and steel prices are recovering but with limited elasticity [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: Spot trading is light, and it is operating weakly in a volatile manner [2][8] - Industrial Silicon: Upstream supply disturbances are increasing, and market sentiment should be monitored [2][11] - Polysilicon: Market news continues to cause disturbances, and the upside space should be monitored [2][11] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data** - Nickel: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,720 yuan, down 110 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 69,295 lots, a decrease of 16,863 lots [4] - Stainless Steel: The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,560 yuan, down 50 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 113,478 lots, a decrease of 32,573 lots [4] - **Macro and Industry News** - Ontario, Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [4] - The Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project has entered the trial - production stage, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of nickel metal [5] - A nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production after a previous shutdown due to an accident [6] - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill will continue shutdown and maintenance from June to July, potentially affecting 110,000 - 130,000 tons of 300 - series production [7] - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the removal of the raw - ore export ban from the mining fiscal system bill [7] - Environmental violations were found in the IMIP in Indonesia, and possible fines may be imposed [7] - **Trend Intensity** - Nickel: 0; Stainless Steel: 0 [4] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data** - The closing price of the 2507 contract was 62,980 yuan, up 560 yuan from the previous day, with a trading volume of 955 lots, a decrease of 17,144 lots [8] - The closing price of the 2509 contract was 62,780 yuan, up 520 yuan from the previous day, with a trading volume of 398,387 lots, an increase of 8,660 lots [8] - **Macro and Industry News** - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased by 61 yuan/ton [8] - Hainan Mining signed a lithium - spodumene off - take agreement [10] - **Trend Intensity** - - 1 [10] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data** - Industrial Silicon: The Si2509 closing price was 7,765 yuan/ton, down 295 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 1,230,307 lots, a decrease of 147,023 lots [11] - Polysilicon: The PS2508 closing price was 32,700 yuan/ton, down 835 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 261,490 lots, a decrease of 159,686 lots [11] - **Macro and Industry News** - Ten domestic photovoltaic glass manufacturers decided to cut production by 30% to break the "involution - style" competition [11][13] - **Trend Intensity** - Industrial Silicon: 1; Polysilicon: 1 [13]

2025年06月30日 | 镍：矿端支撑有所松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：库存边际小幅去化，钢价修复但弹性有限 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：基本面承压叠加仓单矛盾，高波动或延续 | 4 | | 工业硅：减产消息扰动，关注上方空间 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注市场情绪发酵 | 6 | 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 观点与策略 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 30 日 镍：矿端支撑有所松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 120,480 | -350 | 2,200 | 560 | 530 | -9,550 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 12,620 | -15 | 115 | 70 | - ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Oscillating [4] - Alumina: Medium - to long - term oscillating weakly, short - term consider cautious short - selling for far - month contracts [5] - Aluminum: Short - term oscillating, medium - term oscillating weakly [7] - Aluminum Alloy: Spot AD is weak in the off - season, and the futures price is pressured following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [8] - Zinc: Oscillating weakly [9] - Lead: Oscillating [15] - Nickel: Oscillating weakly in the short - term, suggest long - term position take profit [20] - Stainless Steel: Oscillating in the short - term [25] - Tin: Oscillating [26] 2. Core Viewpoints - The US dollar hits a new low this year, and non - ferrous metals reach a new high since early April. In the short - to medium - term, the weak US dollar, low LME inventories, and weak demand expectations are intertwined, leading non - ferrous metals to oscillate upward. Focus on structural opportunities and cautiously consider short - term long opportunities for copper, aluminum, and tin. In the long - term, the demand outlook for base metals remains uncertain, and consider short - selling opportunities for some oversupplied or expected - to - be - oversupplied varieties on price rallies [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - The US dollar index declines, and copper prices remain high. The Fed maintains the federal funds rate, and a major global copper mine initiates mid - year negotiations. China's electrolytic copper production increases. Spot premiums rise, and inventories slightly increase. Macro factors boost copper prices, and supply risks exist while demand is in the off - season. The short - term outlook is high - level oscillation [4] 3.1.2 Alumina - Weekly inventories increase, and the futures spread is high. Spot prices mostly decline, and overseas transactions show price increases. In the short - to medium - term, there is no shortage of ore, and the spot price center moves down. The long - term situation is affected by events, and the outlook is medium - to long - term oscillation with a weakening trend [5] 3.1.3 Aluminum - Regional premiums and discounts are differentiated, and the electrolytic aluminum futures oscillate. Prices decline slightly, and inventories show a mixed trend. In the short - term, there is inventory accumulation, and in the medium - term, consumption may face pressure [7] 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - Spot trading is light, and the aluminum alloy futures oscillate. The off - season pressure on the automotive industry is high, and the electrolytic aluminum situation eases. In the long - term, there is an expected seasonal increase in demand, and the futures price follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [8] 3.1.5 Zinc - The supply - demand fundamentals remain unchanged, and consider short - selling opportunities on price rallies. Spot premiums vary, and inventories slightly decline. Macro factors are neutral, supply is loosening, and demand is in the off - season. The outlook is oscillating weakly [12] 3.1.6 Lead - The off - season of consumption is coming to an end, and lead prices oscillate. Spot prices and inventories show certain changes. Supply decreases slightly, and demand is recovering. The outlook is oscillation [15] 3.1.7 Nickel - Market sentiment improves, and long - term positions should be gradually taken profit. LME and domestic inventories change, and there are various industry developments. Market sentiment dominates, and the industry fundamentals are weakening. The short - term outlook is wide - range oscillation [20] 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - The expectation of supply contraction increases, and the futures price continues to rise. Futures and spot prices change, and the price of Indonesian nickel ore is affected by the rainy season. Cost support weakens, and the short - term outlook is range - bound oscillation [25] 3.1.9 Tin - Supply disturbances reappear, and tin prices oscillate. Warehouse receipts and spot prices change. The supply from the main producing areas is tight, and the fundamentals are resilient. The outlook is oscillation [26] 3.2行情监测 - The document does not provide specific content for this part, so it is skipped.

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various futures commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., with specific trends and suggestions for each commodity [2][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: The Federal Reserve continues to hold rates steady, with a trend strength of 0 [6][7][11]. - **Silver**: Expected to continue rising, with a trend strength of 0 [7][11]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Falling inventories support prices, with a trend strength of 0 [13][15]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to oscillate strongly, with a trend strength of 1; Alumina: Monitor production cuts and maintenance, with a trend strength of 0 [16][18]. - **Zinc**: Under medium - term pressure, monitor social inventory changes, with a trend strength of -1 [19][20]. - **Lead**: Expected to trade within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [22][23]. - **Tin**: Tight present but weak future expectations, with a trend strength of 0 [25][29]. - **Nickel**: Concerns at the mine end have cooled, and smelting supply is elastic, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel: Negative feedback leads to increased production cuts, with supply and demand both weak and prices oscillating at a low level, with a trend strength of 0 [30][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Warehouse receipt de - stocking is accelerating, monitor potential purchases, with a trend strength of 0 [34][36]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts are continuously de - stocking, monitor upside potential, with a trend strength of -1; Polysilicon: Upstream restarts production, and the futures price is falling, with a trend strength of -1 [38][40]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, and prices will oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [41]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by macro - sentiment, prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [45][46][48]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Affected by sector sentiment, prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [50][53]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [54][56]. - **Steam Coal**: Demand needs to be released, and prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [58][61]. - **PVC**: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with downward pressure in the long run [54]. - **Fuel Oil**: Night trading oscillated weakly, and short - term strength is expected to pause; Low - sulfur fuel oil: The adjustment trend continues, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the overseas market rebounded slightly [56]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: U.S. biofuel policy and Middle - East geopolitics are both favorable [63]. - **Soybean Oil**: Expected to rise oscillatingly [63]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 1**: Oscillating and adjusting [66]. - **Corn**: Expected to trade within a range [68]. - **Sugar**: Consolidating at a low level [69]. - **Cotton**: Monitor the impact of external markets [70]. - **Eggs**: The culling of laying hens is accelerating, waiting for the peak - season bullish factors to materialize [72]. - **Hogs**: Waiting for spot price confirmation, and the cost center for the far - end contracts is moving down [73]. - **Peanuts**: There is support at the bottom [74]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Currently in a sideways market, consider holding long positions in the August contract and short positions in the October contract [57]. - **Short - fiber and Bottle - grade Chip**: Monitor the increasing cost volatility, and prices will oscillate at a high level [61]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Expected to trade within a range [62]. - **Log**: The basis is being repaired, and prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 1 [62][64].

2025年06月18日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：矿端担忧有所降温，冶炼供应弹性饱满 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，供需双弱低位震荡 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：仓单持续减少 | 4 | | 工业硅：仓单持续性去化，关注市场情绪 | 6 | | 多晶硅：仓单未增，关注市场情绪 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 18 日 镍：矿端担忧有所降温，冶炼供应弹性饱满 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，供需双弱低位震荡 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 118,570 | -1,120 | -2,820 | -2,680 | - ...

Report Information - Report Date: June 15, 2025 [1][4][28][59][91][95] - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Research Weekly - Green Finance and New Energy [1] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content. Core Views Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel: When the mine - end logic is marginally dull, the supply elasticity of the smelting end may limit the upside space, and the nickel price may still face the pressure of "de - valuation - de - production" [4] - Stainless Steel: The steel price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term, and the pressure on profits from the far - end surplus may ease slightly if production cuts occur as scheduled from June to July [5] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: The industry remains in an oversupply pattern, and the disk still has downward drivers. It is recommended to short on rallies [33] - Polysilicon: It is also advisable to short on rallies. The supply - increase and demand - weak situation persists, and the spot price still has further downward drivers [34] Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate Lithium: It is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to use the reverse spread strategy [59][61] National Carbon Market - National Carbon Market: The trading volume is expected to climb in mid - to late June. It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the fourth quarter [92][93] Summary by Category Nickel and Stainless Steel Nickel - **Fundamentals**: The short - term support logic at the mine end remains, but the market's concern about the mine end has decreased. The supply elasticity at the smelting end is abundant, and the nickel price may face pressure [4] - **Inventory Changes**: Global visible inventory accumulation is lower than expected, but the overall inventory is high, and there are still many potential supply release expectations in the medium term [4] - **Market News**: Multiple events such as potential changes in Philippine mining policies and the resumption of production in some Indonesian factories have affected the market [9] Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: Supply and demand are both weak, and the steel price is restricted by short - term off - season demand and overseas tariffs [5] - **Inventory Changes**: Stainless steel social inventory has increased week - on - week [7] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Price Trends**: The disk rebounded slightly, and the spot price remained stable [29] - **Supply and Demand**: The industry inventory decreased slightly. Factories in Yunnan, Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia continued to resume production, while downstream demand remained on - demand procurement [30][31] Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: The disk fluctuated downward, and the upstream quotation decreased [29] - **Supply and Demand**: The upstream inventory continued to accumulate. The production of silicon materials in June and July may continue to increase, but the overall procurement of industrial silicon did not increase significantly [30][31] Carbonate Lithium - **Price Trends**: The main contract first rose and then fell. The 2507 contract closed at 59940 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the 2509 contract closed at 59800 yuan/ton, down 1120 yuan/ton week - on - week [59] - **Supply and Demand**: The ore price stabilized, and production increased. The terminal market of new energy vehicles and energy storage performed well, but downstream procurement was still cautious [60] - **Inventory**: The total inventory increased, and the inventory of traders increased rapidly. The number of futures warehouse receipts decreased [60] National Carbon Market - **Price Trends**: The comprehensive price of the national carbon market rebounded significantly, and the trading activity of CCER increased [91] - **Trading Volume**: The weekly total trading volume of the national carbon market increased by 42% week - on - week, and the weekly total trading volume of the national greenhouse gas voluntary emission reduction trading market increased by more than 15 times week - on - week [91] - **Core Views**: The trading volume is expected to climb in mid - to late June, and it is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the fourth quarter [92][93]