Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Nickel: The reality support and weak expectations are in a game, and nickel prices are oscillating [2][4]. - Stainless steel: The negative feedback has led to an increase in production cuts, and steel prices are oscillating within a range [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: There is a short - term reduction in imports, and long - term supply exceeds demand, with prices oscillating [2][10]. - Industrial silicon: The sentiment has peaked, and the futures price has downward momentum [2][14]. - Polysilicon: The spot price has a downward driving force, and the futures should be mainly short - allocated [2][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 122,200 yuan, with a change of 630 yuan compared to T - 1. The trading volume was 98,620 lots, a decrease of 3,755 lots from T - 1 [4]. - The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 12,680 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume was 75,548 lots, an increase of 6,636 lots from T - 1 [4]. Macro and Industry News - In March, Ontario's Premier Ford mentioned that Ontario's minerals are crucial in the tariff struggle and may stop exporting nickel to the US [4]. - On April 27, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI ferronickel RKEF successfully produced ferronickel, with an annual output of about 1.25 million tons of nickel metal per line [5]. - An important nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [6][7]. - The Philippine parliament is discussing a bill to ban nickel ore exports, and there was market news in May that the ban might start in June 2025, but its authenticity and start time are to be verified [7]. - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue maintenance from June to July, which may affect 110,000 - 130,000 tons of production, mainly 300 - series [7]. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - For the 2507 contract, the closing price was 60,440 yuan, with a trading volume of 256,782 lots and a position of 218,416 lots [11]. - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,200 yuan, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 58,600 yuan [11]. Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 60,485 yuan/ton, up 94 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [11]. - Shengxin Lithium Energy's 60,000 - ton lithium salt project in Indonesia is expected to start mass - supplying in Q3 2025. The company also has business layouts in solid - state batteries [13]. - In 2025, the "New Energy Vehicle Going to the Countryside" promotion model catalog included 124 models, 25 more than in 2024, and Tesla's Model 3 and Model Y were on the list for the first time [13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Si2507 contract was 7,290 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 666,383 lots and a position of 161,192 lots [14]. - The closing price of the PS2507 contract was 34,740 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 134,443 lots and a position of 65,179 lots [14]. Macro and Industry News - From May 26 to June 5, 2025, domestic enterprises won 17 bids for photovoltaic module projects, 5 more than the previous period, with a total procurement capacity of 777.01MW, a decrease of 61.59MW [15]. Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; Stainless steel trend intensity: 0 [8]. - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: 0 [13]. - Industrial silicon trend intensity: - 1; Polysilicon trend intensity: - 1 [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: Short - term cost provides support, but weak expectations exert downward pressure [2][4]. - Stainless Steel: There is a game between negative feedback and production cuts, and steel prices will fluctuate within a range [2][5]. - Lithium Carbonate: The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to the possibility of Sino - US tariff repair [2][11]. - Industrial Silicon: The commodity sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to upward risks [2][16]. - Polysilicon: The weak fundamental pattern remains unchanged [2][16]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,570 yuan, down 1,020 yuan; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,690 yuan, down 30 yuan. Other data such as trading volume, price spreads, and import profits also showed corresponding changes [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia has adjusted the resource tax rates for nickel products; Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the US; new nickel - iron projects in Indonesia have entered the trial - production stage; a nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production; the Philippines is discussing a nickel - ore export ban; an Indonesian cold - rolling mill will continue maintenance and affect production [5][6][8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral trend [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2507 contract was 60,100 yuan, down 980 yuan. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, basis, and raw - material prices [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased; Chile's lithium carbonate export volume changed, with a decrease in exports to China and the US and an increase to South Korea; the industry inventory increased [11][12][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a slightly bullish trend [15]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2507 contract was 7,135 yuan, down 145 yuan; the closing price of the PS2507 contract was 34,540 yuan, down 515 yuan. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, price spreads, and inventory [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: A Canadian solar - component assembly plant in the US has been put into production [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish trend [18].

Overall Report Information - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy" dated June 5, 2025, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2] Nickel and Stainless Steel Core View - Nickel: Short - term cost provides support, but weak expectations put downward pressure [2][4] - Stainless steel: There is a game between negative feedback and production cuts, and steel prices will fluctuate within a range [2][5] Fundamental Data - For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 122,590, with a change of 1,340 compared to T - 1. The trading volume was 117,416, a decrease of 43,954 from T - 1 [5] - For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 12,720, up 90 from T - 1, and the trading volume was 95,686, an increase of 20,639 from T - 1 [5] Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has increased the resource tax rates for nickel products, with nickel ore, ferronickel, nickel pig iron, and nickel matte resource tax rates adjusted to floating ranges of 14% - 19%, 5% - 7%, 5% - 7%, and 4.5% - 6.5% respectively [5] - Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [6] - The Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project successfully produced nickel - iron, and an overseas nickel smelter has resumed production [8] - The Philippines is discussing a ban on nickel ore exports, and there are market rumors about an export ban starting in June 2025, but the authenticity is yet to be verified [8] - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue maintenance from June to July, which may affect 11 - 13 tons of 300 - series production [9] Lithium Carbonate Core View - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate have not improved, and the rebound space may be limited [2][11] Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2507 contract was 61,080, up 1,140 from T - 1, and the trading volume was 413,239, an increase of 108,078 from T - 1 [11] Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased by 39 yuan/ton. The Chinese government is organizing a new - energy vehicle promotion campaign in rural areas [12][13] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Core View - Industrial silicon: Subject to emotional disturbances, the upside space is limited - Polysilicon: It has a weak fundamental pattern [2][15] Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Si2507 contract for industrial silicon was 7,280, up 210 from T - 1, and the trading volume was 806,934, an increase of 421,379 from T - 1 [15] - The closing price of the PS2507 contract for polysilicon was 35,055, up 695 from T - 1, and the trading volume was 262,747, an increase of 118,067 from T - 1 [15] Macro and Industry News - Junda Co., Ltd., a photovoltaic company, plans to build a 5GW N - type high - efficiency photovoltaic cell production base in Turkey [16][17] Trend Intensity - Nickel: 0 - Stainless steel: 0 - Lithium carbonate: - 1 - Industrial silicon: - 1 - Polysilicon: - 1 [10][13][17]

2025年06月04日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：短线成本托底，预期偏弱压制 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：负反馈与减产博弈，钢价区间震荡 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：矿价节后快速回落，锂价走势仍偏弱 | 4 | | 工业硅：盘面底部弱势震荡 | 6 | | 多晶硅：仓单超预期大增，盘面具备下跌驱动 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 4 日 镍：短线成本托底，预期偏弱压制 不锈钢：负反馈与减产博弈，钢价区间震荡 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 121,250 | 150 | -920 | -920 | -2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: Short - term cost provides support, but weak expectations exert pressure [2][4] - Stainless steel: There is a game between negative feedback and production cuts, and steel prices will fluctuate within a range [2][5] - Lithium carbonate: The fundamentals are weak, and downward pressure still exists [2][11] - Industrial silicon: Inventory is accumulating, and the futures price will continue to decline [2][15] - Polysilicon: Adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies [2][15] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 121,100 yuan, a change of - 1,510 yuan compared to T - 5. The trading volume was 145,554 lots, a change of 57,877 lots compared to T - 5 [5] - The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,685 yuan, a change of - 190 yuan compared to T - 5. The trading volume was 124,523 lots, a change of 15,423 lots compared to T - 5 [5] Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has increased the resource tax rates for nickel - related products. For example, the tax rate for nickel ore has been raised from 10% to a floating range of 14% - 19% [5] - Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [6] - The first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF has entered the trial - production stage, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of nickel metal per single line [8] Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2507 contract was 59,800 yuan, a change of - 1,160 yuan compared to T - 5. The trading volume was 429,284 lots, a change of 134,714 lots compared to T - 5 [11] - The closing price of the 2509 contract was 59,840 yuan, a change of - 2,460 yuan compared to T - 5. The trading volume was 119,089 lots, a change of 69,436 lots compared to T - 5 [11] Macro and Industry News - Samsung SDI and GM plan to add a lithium - iron - phosphate battery production line at their joint - venture plant in Indiana [12][13] - LGES also plans to convert part of its joint - venture plant with GM in Tennessee into a lithium - iron - phosphate battery production line [13] - From May 1 - 25, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 1.358 million units, a year - on - year increase of 16% [13] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Si2507 contract was 7,160 yuan/ton, a change of - 755 yuan compared to T - 5. The trading volume was 456,239 lots, a change of 172,084 lots compared to T - 5 [15] - The closing price of the PS2507 contract was 35,600 yuan/ton, a change of - 490 yuan compared to T - 5. The trading volume was 150,575 lots, a change of - 18,647 lots compared to T - 5 [15] Macro and Industry News - The 1 660MW unit of Qiya Xinjiang Group's Changdong Power Generation has the ability to generate electricity, and the 2 unit is under construction [15][17]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The copper price is expected to fluctuate around 78,000 yuan, with subsequent inventory accumulation likely to be slow due to strong support from the current fundamentals and macro - environment [1] - The aluminum price is expected to rebound with inventory reduction, and the calendar spread long - position can be held if the absolute price drops [1] - For zinc, it is recommended to short at high prices and consider partial profit - taking for the domestic - foreign calendar spread long - position [2] - Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continuously monitored [3] - The stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate in the short term [3] - The lead price is expected to oscillate between 16,600 and 16,900 yuan next week, with supply expected to decrease in May [6] - For tin, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term and look for high - short opportunities in the long term [8] - The industrial silicon price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading large factories in the long run [9] - The lithium carbonate price is expected to decline after oscillation in the short term and remain weakly oscillating in the medium - long term [9] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - Domestic inventory continued to increase slightly this week. The earthquake in the Kamoa mining area may affect this year's production. The Manyer smelter in Indonesia will resume production, which may affect the domestic TC. The domestic copper consumption shows resilience, and the price is expected to oscillate around 78,000 yuan [1] Aluminum - Supply increased slightly, and the demand decline in May - June is not obvious. There is still a supply - demand gap, and inventory is expected to decline gently from May to July. The aluminum price is expected to rebound with inventory reduction [1] Zinc - The zinc price oscillated this week. Supply - side TC remained unchanged, and smelting maintenance decreased slightly. Demand - side domestic demand has limited elasticity, and overseas demand has slightly recovered. The inventory accumulation inflection point is expected to appear in early June [2] Nickel - The supply of pure nickel remains high, and imports from Russia increased in April. Demand is weak, and overseas inventory increased slightly. Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be monitored [3] Stainless Steel - Production increased seasonally in April, and steel mills may cut production passively in May. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory increased slightly in Xijiao and Foshan. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [3] Lead - The lead price oscillated downward this week. Supply - side recycling and smelting have issues, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,600 and 16,900 yuan next week [6] Tin - The tin price oscillated narrowly this week. Supply - side domestic production may be affected by processing fees, and overseas production has resumed. Demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for high - short opportunities in the long term [8] Industrial Silicon - The overall start - up rate increased slightly this week. The market is at a low level, and inventory is gradually decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the long run [9] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price rebounded after a decline this week. Supply - side production and inventory changes are complex, and demand is weak. The price is expected to decline after oscillation in the short term and remain weakly oscillating in the medium - long term [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are currently fluctuating around 78,000 yuan, with the current fundamentals and macro - environment strongly supporting electrolytic copper. Aluminum prices are expected to rebound with inventory reduction, and long - short spreads in the month can be held if the absolute price drops. Zinc prices are oscillating, and it is recommended to short at high prices and partially take profit on long - short spreads. Nickel - stainless steel ratio contraction opportunities can be continuously monitored. Stainless steel is expected to oscillate in the short term. Lead is expected to oscillate between 16,600 - 16,900 yuan next week. Tin is recommended to be observed in the short term and high - short opportunities should be monitored in the long term. Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the long term. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the medium - long term and decline after oscillation next week [1][2][3][6][8][10][11] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased by 35, the waste - refined copper spread decreased by 40, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1,652 [1] - **Supply**: Due to the earthquake in the Kamoa mining area, some mining areas stopped production, which may affect this year's output. The Manyer smelter in Indonesia will start feeding and resuming production in early June, which may improve the shortage of electrolytic copper premiums in Southeast Asia but have an adverse impact on domestic TC [1] - **Demand**: The consumption of domestic electrolytic copper shows resilience. The State Grid has issued the second batch of tenders this year, and the cable consumption and orders in the remaining time of the second quarter are expected to be strong. However, the consumption of several sectors shows a weakening trend [1] Aluminum - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 10 yuan, the Yangtze River aluminum ingot price increased by 20 yuan, and the domestic alumina price increased by 59 yuan [1] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has increased slightly, and the import of aluminum ingots from January to April was large. The demand from May to June is not expected to decline significantly, and there is still a supply - demand gap. The inventory is expected to be slowly reduced from May to July [1] Zinc - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the spot premium decreased by 10, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 60, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 2,725 [2] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply: Domestic TC and imported TC remained unchanged this week, and the smelting maintenance in May decreased slightly compared with the previous month. Demand: Domestic demand has limited elasticity, and overseas demand has slightly recovered. The domestic social inventory is slowly increasing, and the inflection point of accelerated inventory accumulation is expected to appear in early June [2] Nickel - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 150 [3] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply: The production of pure nickel remains at a high level, and the import of Russian nickel increased in April. Demand: Overall demand is weak. Inventory: Overseas nickel plate inventory has slightly increased, and domestic inventory remains stable [3] Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of 201 cold - rolled coil decreased by 100 [6] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply: Production increased seasonally in April, and steel mills may cut production passively in May. Demand: It is mainly driven by rigid demand. Cost: The prices of ferronickel and ferrochrome remain stable. Inventory: The inventory in Xijiao and Foshan has slightly increased [6] Lead - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the spot premium decreased by 30, and the LME lead inventory increased by 47,675 [7][8] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply: The scrap volume is weak year - on - year. Middle - stream recycling smelters have concentrated production capacity, and the demand for waste batteries is tight. Demand: Battery export orders have slightly declined, and overall demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,600 - 16,900 yuan next week [8] Tin - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the spot import profit decreased by 3,040.30, and the LME tin inventory remained unchanged [10] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply: The short - term resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State requires negotiation. The domestic Jiangxi region has partially cut production, and the Yunnan region is struggling to maintain production. Demand: The elasticity of solder consumption is limited, and the downstream lacks the motivation to further destock. It is recommended to observe in the short term and monitor high - short opportunities in the long term [10] Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 35, and the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 35 [11] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply: The overall start - up has slightly increased. Demand: The demand for silicone and polysilicon is declining. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and social inventory has started to be reduced. In the long term, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [11] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the SMM electric carbon price remained unchanged, and the SMM industrial carbon price remained unchanged [11] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply: The production lines of Tianqi and Yahua have resumed work, and small recycling plants have intensified production cuts. Demand: Downstream demand is weak, and the demand improvement by policies is less than expected. In the medium - long term, prices are expected to oscillate weakly and decline after oscillation next week [11]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - **Report Industry Investment Ratings**: Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views - **Nickel**: Nickel ore contradictions provide a bottom support, while the economics of conversion may limit the upside valuation [2][4] - **Stainless Steel**: The cost bottom space is clear, but there is a lack of substantial drivers for upward movement [2][4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium salt plant production cuts have not affected the resource end, and the upside remains under pressure [2][10] - **Industrial Silicon**: The weak pattern persists [2][13] - **Polysilicon**: There is a build - up of warehouse receipts, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [2][13] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 123,280, with a decrease of 1,950 compared to T - 5. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,870, down 210 from T - 5. Other data such as trading volume, spot prices, and spreads also showed various changes [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia adjusted the resource tax rates for nickel - related products; Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial production stage; a nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production; the Philippines may ban nickel ore exports [4][5][7] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2507 contract was 61,100, down 4,100 from T - 5. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, and various price differentials and raw material prices [10] - **Macro and Industry News**: Ford allowed Nissan to use part of the capacity of its battery factory; a lithium salt enterprise in Jiangxi planned to shut down a plant for maintenance, affecting monthly production by about 1,500 tons [12] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The Si2507 closing price was 7,865, down 625 from T - 5. The PS2507 closing price was 35,860, down 2,560 from T - 5. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, price differentials, inventory, and raw material costs [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: At the 2024 annual general meeting of Tongwei Co., Ltd., the company expressed confidence in the development of the photovoltaic industry [13][15] Trend Intensity - **Nickel**: Trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [9] - **Stainless Steel**: Trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [9] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Trend intensity is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: Trend intensity is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [15] - **Polysilicon**: Trend intensity is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [15]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For copper, the inventory depletion rate may continue to slow down, and attention should be paid to the consumption inflection point. The weekend's Sino-US negotiation rumors may boost market sentiment. For the month spread, the current inter - month positive spread has shown a large space, and subsequent upward momentum requires substantial shortages or a decline in absolute prices. [1] - For aluminum, supply has increased slightly, and the demand expectation in May does not decline significantly. There is still a supply - demand gap. It is recommended to wait and see on the absolute price, take profit on the aluminum internal - external reverse spread, and continue to hold the inter - month positive spread if the absolute price drops. [1] - For zinc, the zinc price center has moved down slightly in a volatile manner. It is in a situation of strong current reality and weak expectation. It is recommended to short at high prices, continue to hold the internal - external positive spread, and pay attention to the inter - month reverse spread opportunity after mid - May. [2] - For nickel, the short - term fundamental situation is weak, and there is still instability in tariffs and continuous disturbances at the mine end. Attention should be paid to Indonesia's tariff policy on China and the opportunity for the nickel - stainless steel price ratio to shrink. [4] - For stainless steel, the overall fundamentals remain weak, and under the influence of tariffs, the steel mill's profit is under pressure. The unilateral price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, and the reverse spread can be rolled over and continued to be held. [7] - For lead, the lead price is expected to oscillate between 16,700 and 16,900 next week, and the supply in May is expected to decrease cyclically. [8] - For tin, in the short term, the domestic raw material supply is still disturbed, and the fundamentals are expected to remain tight in the first half of the year. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium - long term. [8] - For industrial silicon, the short - term supply - demand double - reduction pattern is obvious, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the medium - long term. [10] - For lithium carbonate, in the short - term, the downstream demand enters a small peak season, but the demand improvement is less than expected. In the medium - long term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. [12] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the spot premium of Shanghai copper changed from 225 to - 35, the waste - refined copper price difference increased by 394, and the Shanghai copper warehouse receipt increased by 20,912. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: In April, China's copper concentrate imports increased. The demand shows a co - existence of strong current reality and weak expectation. The inventory depletion slope may continue to slow down. [1] Aluminum - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 195, the domestic alumina price increased by 12, and the spot import profit decreased by 132.42. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has increased slightly, and the demand expectation in May does not decline significantly. The inventory is expected to be depleted gently from May to July. [1] Zinc - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the spot premium decreased by 120, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 190, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 900. [2] - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic TC increased slightly this week, and the smelting maintenance in May decreased slightly. The demand has limited impetus from the rush - installation stimulus. The domestic social inventory is at a low level, and the inflection point from inventory depletion to accumulation is expected to appear in mid - to late May. [2] Nickel - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore decreased by 0.5, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 1,550, and the LME nickel inventory decreased by 84. [3] - **Supply and Demand**: The pure nickel production remains at a high level, the demand is weak, the overseas nickel plate inventory is slightly depleted, and the domestic inventory remains stable. [4] Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of waste stainless steel increased by 50. [7] - **Supply and Demand**: In April, the production increased seasonally, and steel mills may cut production passively in May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory in Xijiao and Foshan has increased after the festival. [7] Lead - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the spot premium remained at - 120, the LME lead inventory decreased by 2,900. [8] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is expected to decrease cyclically in May. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate between 16,700 and 16,900 next week. [8] Tin - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the spot import profit increased by 2,537.61, the LME tin inventory decreased by 15. [8] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side has some changes such as the复产 of African mines, and the demand side has a weakening expectation. The short - term fundamentals are tight, and the medium - long - term attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities. [8] Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 260, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 37. [10] - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term supply - demand double - reduction pattern is obvious, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the medium - long term. [10] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 100, the主力合约基差 decreased by 1,880, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 272. [12] - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term demand enters a small peak season, but the demand improvement is less than expected. In the medium - long term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. [12]

大宗商品研究所 有色研发报告 有色金属日报 2025 年 4 月 24 日星期四 研究所副所长、有色及贵 金属板块负责人：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询从业证号：Z0017510 研究员：王伟 期货从业证号：F03143400 投资咨询从业证号：Z0022141 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号：Z0018401 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号：F03129697 投资咨询从业证号：Z0020351 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 1.期货：今日沪铜 2505 合约收于 77600 元，跌幅 0.5%，沪铜指数增仓 4180 手至 53.41 万 手。 2.现货：铜价震荡下行但仍处高位，下游接货需求有所减弱，成交重心有所下调。上海报 升水 175 元/吨，较上一交易日下跌 10 元/吨，天津报贴水 10 元/吨，下跌 10 元/吨。广东 地区报升水 225 元/吨，持平昨日。 【重要资讯】 1.截至 4 月 24 日周四，全国主流地区铜库存较周一下降 1.48 万吨至 18.17 万吨，较上周四 下降 5.1 ...