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利率周报:物价增长依然偏弱,但PPI增速可能企稳-20250810
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-08-10 13:58
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - Price growth remains weak, and the policy bottom - support effect is emerging. The price recovery in July shows the characteristics of "consumption stronger than production, and policy - driven repair". The marginal improvement in price data in July, with CPI turning positive month - on - month and the narrowing of PPI decline, is closely related to the intensive implementation of "anti - involution" policies and the continuous efforts of domestic demand expansion policies since July [2][9][86]. - The continuous rise of core CPI inflation may indicate that the domestic demand expansion policy's bottom - support effect on domestic demand is gradually emerging, while the narrowing of PPI decline may rely more on the policy's regulation of the supply - side competition order, and the impact of the substantial expansion of the demand side needs continuous observation [2][10][86]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro - level News - In July, CPI was flat year - on - year, mainly affected by low food prices. Core CPI excluding food and energy prices was up 0.8% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for three consecutive months. CPI was up 0.4% month - on - month, higher than the seasonal level by 0.1 pct, mainly driven by the rise in service and industrial consumer goods prices [12]. - In July, PPI was down 3.6% year - on - year, the same as last month. PPI was down 0.2% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 pct compared to last month, the first narrowing of the month - on - month decline since March. The price recovery of production materials mainly occurred in July [15]. - In the first seven months of 2025, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 25.7 trillion yuan, up 3.5% year - on - year. Exports were 15.3 trillion yuan, up 7.3% year - on - year; imports were 10.39 trillion yuan, down 1.6% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 1.1 pct compared to the first six months. In July, the total value of goods trade imports and exports was 3.9 trillion yuan, up 6.7% year - on - year. Exports were 2.3 trillion yuan, up 8% year - on - year; imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, up 4.8% year - on - year [17]. 2. Meso - level High - frequency Data 2.1 Consumption - As of July 31, the average daily retail volume of passenger car manufacturers was 9.7 million vehicles, down 0.8% year - on - year, and the average daily wholesale volume was 17.2 million vehicles, up 1.3% year - on - year. As of August 8, the total box office revenue of national movies in the past 7 days was 168,932,800 yuan, up 98.5% year - on - year [20]. - As of August 1, the total retail volume of three major household appliances was 1.739 million units, down 3.7% year - on - year, and the total retail sales were 4.05 billion yuan, up 2.7% year - on - year [22]. 2.2 Transportation - As of August 3, the port's container throughput was 5.68 million twenty - foot equivalent units, down 7.0% year - on - year. As of August 7, the average subway passenger volume in first - tier cities in the past 7 days was 3,934,400 person - times, down 1.3% year - on - year [25]. - As of August 3, the postal express pick - up volume was 3.6 billion pieces, up 14.6% year - on - year. The railway freight volume was 77.694 million tons, up 6.5% year - on - year, and the highway truck traffic volume was 5.2593 million vehicles, up 2.8% year - on - year [27][31]. 2.3 Industrial Operating Rates - As of August 6, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises was 77.5%, up 3.4 pct year - on - year. As of August 7, the average asphalt operating rate was 25.0%, up 2.0 pct year - on - year [34]. - As of August 7, the soda ash operating rate was 85.2%, down 4.8 pct year - on - year, and the PVC operating rate was 75.5%, up 0.1 pct year - on - year. As of August 8, the average PX operating rate was 82.0%, and the average PTA operating rate was 76.8% [37]. 2.4 Real Estate - As of August 7, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days was 1.392 million square meters, down 17.8% year - on - year. The total number of commercial housing transactions was 15,625 units, down 15.5% year - on - year [41][43]. 2.5 Prices - As of August 8, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.4 yuan/kg, down 21.2% year - on - year and 0.8% compared to four weeks ago; the average wholesale price of vegetables was 4.6 yuan/kg, down 16.9% year - on - year and up 4.1% compared to four weeks ago; the average wholesale price of six key fruits was 7.0 yuan/kg, down 4.3% year - on - year and 4.5% compared to four weeks ago [48]. - As of August 8, the average price of thermal coal at northern ports was 665 yuan/ton, down 21.7% year - on - year and up 7.8% compared to four weeks ago; the average spot price of WTI crude oil was 65.4 US dollars/barrel, down 11.9% year - on - year and 3.3% compared to four weeks ago; the average spot price of rebar was 3,328.1 yuan/ton, up 4.23% year - on - year and 6.5% compared to four weeks ago [51]. - As of August 8, the average spot price of iron ore was 786.5 yuan/ton, down 0.9% year - on - year and up 5.7% compared to four weeks ago; the average spot price of glass was 15.2 yuan/square meter, down 11.9% year - on - year and up 8.2% compared to four weeks ago [56]. 3. Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On August 8, overnight Shibor was 1.31%, up 0.04 BP from August 4. R001 was 1.34%, down 0.99 BP from August 4; R007 was 1.45%, down 2.17 BP from August 4. DR001 was 1.31%, down 0.30 BP from August 4; DR007 was 1.43%, down 2.67 BP from August 4. IBO001 was 1.35%, up 0.17 BP from August 4; IBO007 was 1.50%, up 0.78 BP from August 4 [62]. - Most government bond yields declined. On August 8, the yields of 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year government bonds were 1.35%/1.54%/1.69%/1.96% respectively, down 2.0 BP/2.4 BP/1.9 BP/up 0.9 BP compared to August 1. The yields of 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year China Development Bank bonds were 1.50%/1.66%/1.78%/2.05% respectively, up 0.0 BP/down 0.6 BP/up 1.6 BP/up 0.2 BP compared to August 1 [66]. - On August 8, the yields of 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year local government bonds were 1.38%/1.66%/1.82% respectively, down 0.3 BP/up 0.4 BP/up 0.2 BP compared to August 1. The yields of AAA 1 - month/1 - year and AA+ 1 - month/1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit were 1.46%/1.62%/1.48%/1.66% respectively, down 1.3 BP from August 1 [72]. - As of August 8, 2025, the yields of 10 - year government bonds in the US, Japan, the UK, and Germany were 4.3%, 1.5%, 4.6%, and 2.7% respectively, up 4 BP/down 7 BP/up 6 BP/down 6 BP compared to August 1. The central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB were 7.14/7.18 respectively, down 114/280 pips from August 1 [77][80]. 4. Institutional Behavior - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of interest - rate bond medium - and long - term pure bond funds has shown a trend of first decline and then rise, and has been declining in the past two weeks. On August 8, the estimated average duration was about 5.2 years, down about 0.12 years from August 1 [83]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of credit - bond medium - and long - term pure bond funds has shown a volatile trend. In the past three weeks, the duration has risen rapidly and then fluctuated. On August 8, the estimated median duration was about 2.7 years, and the estimated average duration was about 2.6 years, down about 0.03 years from August 1 [84]. 5. Investment Recommendations - Going long in the bond market is currently the path of least resistance. In August, the yield of 10Y government bonds may gradually return to around 1.65%, and the yield of 5Y national - joint - stock secondary bonds may fall below 1.9%. With the cooling of anti - involution, weak price growth, the stock market entering a volatile phase, and the possible decline in social financing growth rate, there are few negative factors for the bond market currently [11][88]. - The tax new regulations have relatively increased the scarcity of government bonds and old financial bonds, which may prompt banks' proprietary trading to scramble for government bonds and old financial bonds. The relatively low spread between newly - issued government bonds and existing bonds may temporarily push down yields. Currently, there is a phased overall bullish view on the bond market, bullish on long - duration sinking urban investment and capital bonds, bullish on urban investment dim sum bonds and US dollar bonds, strongly recommending perpetual bonds of Minsheng Bank, Bohai Bank, and Hengfeng Bank, and paying attention to capital bond opportunities of Tianjin Bank, Beibu Gulf Bank, and China Property Insurance [11][88].
周末,三大利好来袭!7月重要经济数据将公布
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-08-10 12:17
要闻速递周末,三大利好来袭! 8月9日,河南省人民政府印发《河南省支持人工智能产业生态发展若干政策措施》,其中提出,设立总 规模30亿元的人工智能产业基金,壮大耐心资本,探索投补联动、投贷联动等支持机制,满足人工智能 企业不同生命周期阶段的融资需求。 8月9日,在2025世界机器人大会"产业发展"主论坛上,北京经济技术开发区发布具身智能社会实验计 划,并配套发布《北京经济技术开发区关于推动具身智能机器人创新发展的若干措施》专项支持政策, 以十条硬核措施全方位支持企业发展,精准赋能具身智能机器人产业发展。 8月9日,湖北省医疗科技创新成果发布会召开,宣布湖北脑机接口产业创新发展联盟在光谷成立。据介 绍,该联盟聚合同济医院、协和医院等临床资源,依瑞德、衷华脑机等企业,以及华中科技大学、武汉 大学等高校科研团队,构建起覆盖"基础研究-临床转化-产业应用"的全链条生态。联盟通过共建联合实 验室、开放共享实验平台、组织交流活动,推动跨领域技术融合与资源共享,加速脑机接口领域创新成 果落地。 国家统计局:7月份核心CPI同比持续回升 PPI环比降幅收窄 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟解读2025年7月份CPI和PPI数 ...
周末,三大利好来袭!7月重要经济数据将公布|周末要闻速递
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-08-10 11:22
要闻速递周末,三大利好来袭! 国家统计局:7月份核心CPI同比持续回升 PPI环比降幅收窄 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟解读2025年7月份CPI和PPI数据时表示,7月份,扩内需政策效应持 续显现,居民消费价格指数(CPI)环比由上月下降0.1%转为上涨0.4%,同比持平,扣除食品和能源价 格的核心CPI同比上涨0.8%,涨幅连续3个月扩大。受季节性因素叠加国际贸易环境不确定性影响,工 业生产者出厂价格指数(PPI)环比下降0.2%,国内市场竞争秩序持续优化,环比降幅比上月收窄0.2个 百分点,同比下降3.6%,降幅与上月相同。 北京楼市"精准松绑":五环外取消限购套数 北京再度对楼市调控松绑。8月8日,北京市住建委、北京住房公积金管理中心联合印发《关于进一步优 化调整本市房地产相关政策的通知》。在维持核心区调控框架的同时,北京对五环外住房限购及公积金 政策实施精准松绑。其中,符合北京市商品住房购买条件的居民家庭(包括本市户籍居民家庭、在本市 连续缴纳社会保险或个人所得税达到相关年限的非本市户籍居民家庭),在五环外购买商品住房(含新 建商品住房和二手住房)不限套数。成年单身人士按照居民家庭执行商品住房限 ...
广西实现三重医疗保障“一站式”结算
Guang Xi Ri Bao· 2025-08-09 02:04
据了解,广西于2015年实现全区城乡居民大病保险全覆盖。2024年,自治区医保部门统一了2024— 2026年城乡居民大病保险项目标准,各设区市根据实际情况,实行大病保险差异化筹资,广西国寿承保 了广西14个设区市的大病保险项目,服务覆盖全区4397.29万参保群众。 "我们依托自治区医保基金监管子系统平台进行功能拓展升级,确保数据对接、大病结算、测算分 析、数据画像、基金监管等工作有效开展,提升效率的同时节约了运维成本。"广西国寿相关负责人介 绍,参保人员在定点医疗机构就医时,系统会自动完成基本医保、大病保险、医疗救助的梯次报销,实 现"一站式"结算,无需多方奔走、重复提交材料。2024年,全区享受大病倾斜政策的困难群众约24.36 万人,赔付249.24万次,赔付金额27.67亿元。(孟振兴 龚榆超) 记者8月6日从中国人寿寿险广西分公司(即广西国寿)了解到,广西已实现基本医保、大病医保、 医疗救助三重医疗保障"一站式"结算,有效提升医保服务效率,减轻了群众负担。 ...
《保险理论与实践》2025年第8辑目录
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-09 00:39
本文字数:3351字 阅读时间:7分钟 2025年第8辑目录 团体补充医疗保险改革视角下的医、药、险 摘要:澳大利亚是OECD国家中商业健康保险覆盖率最高的国家之一。为了维持高覆盖率,澳大利亚政 府实施一系列"胡萝卜加大棒"的政策,主要包括基于年龄和收入调整的保费退税(费)、终身健康保险 (Lifetime Health Cover)、医疗保险附加税(Medicare Levy Surcharge)、风险调整机制(Risk Equalisation)等。这些政策的实施避免了澳大利亚商业健康保险陷入"死亡螺旋",对我国惠民保的可持 续发展具有借鉴意义。 墨西哥二元医保制度及整合策略 高质量协同发展路径 严霄 朱铭来 赵颖旭 王校复 张斯维 杜霞 摘要:当前,在深化医疗保障改革和医疗行业、医药产业高质量发展的多维驱动下,商业医疗保险面临 着巨大的发展机遇与挑战。本文深入分析我国以个人商业健康险市场为主的发展过程,认为个人商业健 康险市场的"逆选择"问题,是造成商业医疗保险陷入成本经营高、服务效率低、费控基础弱、覆盖人群 少等恶性循环的根本原因;通过比较研究七个典型国家或地区商业医疗保险的发展经验及共性规律,揭 示 ...
年内举牌22次!险资最青睐这类上市公司
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2025-08-08 15:48
Group 1 - Insurance capital continues to increase holdings in listed companies, with 18 companies being targeted in 2024, surpassing the total from the previous year [1][13] - Hongkang Life Insurance acquired an additional 458,000 shares of Honghua Smart Energy, raising its stake to 5.00005% [3][4] - The total investment in Honghua Smart Energy amounted to approximately HKD 1.816 million, with a per-share price of HKD 3.9659 [4][5] Group 2 - Honghua Smart Energy reported a total revenue of HKD 21.314 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.42%, and a net profit of HKD 1.606 billion, up 2% [5] - The company operates in 27 provinces and has a strong market position in the gas industry, supported by stable gas sources and growing sales [5] - Hongkang Life Insurance's total assets as of Q2 2025 were approximately CNY 6.60 billion, with the investment in Honghua Smart Energy representing 1.31% of its total assets [3][8] Group 3 - The insurance sector has seen a significant increase in shareholding activities, with 22 instances of shareholding changes reported in 2025 alone [1][13] - Major insurance companies, including Ping An Life and China Postal Life, have been actively increasing their stakes in various sectors, particularly in banking and public utilities [14][15] - The trend of insurance companies increasing their equity investments is driven by low interest rates and the need for stable investment returns [13][14]
*ST天茂: 中信建投证券股份有限公司关于天茂实业集团股份有限公司主动终止上市的财务顾问意见(上网)
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-08-08 15:17
中信建投证券股份有限公司 关于 天茂实业集团股份有限公司 主动终止上市的财务顾问意见 二〇二五年八月 重要提示 天茂实业集团股份有限公司拟以股东会决议方式主动撤回 A 股股票在深交所 的上市交易,并在股票终止上市后申请转入全国中小企业股份转让系统有限责任公司代 为管理的退市板块转让。 中信建投证券股份有限公司接受天茂集团的委托,担任本次公司申请以股东会决 议方式主动终止上市的财务顾问,依照相关法律法规规定,按照行业公认的业务标 准、道德规范,本着诚实信用和勤勉尽责的原则,在审慎调查的基础上出具财务顾 问意见。 天茂集团已声明向本财务顾问提供了为出具本财务顾问意见所必需的资料, 保证所提供的资料真实、准确、完整,不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大 遗漏,并承诺对所提供资料的合法性、真实性和完整性承担全部责任。 本财务顾问意见是基于上述声明以及截至本财务顾问意见出具日可公开获取 的信息作出的,对日后该等情形出现的不可预见的变化,本财务顾问不承担任何责 任。 本财务顾问意见仅供本次天茂集团主动终止上市使用,不得用于任何其他目的。 本财务顾问意见不构成对天茂集团的任何投资建议,对投资者根据本意见所作出 的任何投资决 ...
信用策略备忘录:窄幅波动记录期
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-08-08 14:23
Quantitative Credit Strategy - As of August 1, the secondary capital bond heavy strategy has rapidly recovered, with the weekly average yield of the credit style secondary bond heavy portfolio rising nearly 87 basis points, reaching the highest absolute return since April [2][12] - The secondary bond heavy and long-term industrial strategies showed significant recovery compared to other portfolios, with weekly returns of 0.31% and 0.51%, respectively, compensating for over 65% of the losses from the previous week [2][12] - Financial bond duration strategies generally outperformed, with secondary bonds, perpetual bonds, and brokerage bond duration portfolios beating the mid-to-long-term benchmark by approximately 9.2 basis points, 8.7 basis points, and 10.4 basis points, respectively [2][12] Duration Tracking of Varieties - The transaction duration of secondary capital bonds has risen to 4.8 years as of August 3, with urban investment bonds and industrial bonds weighted at 2.24 years and 3.03 years, respectively, both at over 90% historical percentile levels since March 2021 [3][14] - Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average transaction durations for secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial bank bonds are 4.79 years, 4.02 years, and 2.91 years, respectively, with bank perpetual bonds at a relatively low historical level [3][14] - For other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, subordinated securities bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds are 1.78 years, 2.37 years, 3.00 years, and 1.61 years, respectively, with securities company bonds and subordinated securities bonds at low historical percentiles [3][14] Yield Heat Map of Coupon Assets - As of August 4, the yields of non-financial and non-real estate industrial bonds have generally declined, with yields for 1-year and 2-3 year private enterprise public non-perpetual bonds down by 5.8 basis points and 6.7 basis points, respectively [4][19] - Real estate bonds also saw a decline in yields, with the yield drop for 3-year private enterprise public non-perpetual bonds exceeding 6 basis points [4][19] - In the financial bond sector, bank subordinated bonds are favored, particularly in the short end, with yields for 1-year shares and 1-2 year city commercial bank secondary capital bonds down by 11.5 basis points and 8.8 basis points, respectively [4][19] Long-term Credit Bond Insights - The issuance scale of long-term credit new bonds totaled 13.42 billion, with supply returning to a low level, possibly due to rising issuance costs, as long-term bond issuers await favorable issuance windows [5][21] - Correspondingly, the average issuance rate of long-term credit new bonds continued to rise, with the issuance rate of long-term urban investment bonds reaching over the 50th percentile for the first time in 24 years [5][21] Local Government Bond Supply and Trading Tracking - The average issuance rate of local bonds has marginally increased, with the yield spreads for 30-year, 20-year, and 10-year local bonds widening to 14 basis points, 12 basis points, and 11 basis points, respectively, compared to the same-term government bonds [6][22]
香港证券ETF(513090)本周日均成交额125亿元,居股票型ETF第一
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-08 14:23
Market Performance - The Hong Kong Securities Index increased by 2.7% this week, while the China Securities Bank Index rose by 2.3%, the China Securities Company Index increased by 0.8%, and the CSI 300 Non-Bank Financial Index grew by 0.6% [1][3] - The average daily trading volume of the Hong Kong Securities ETF (513090) reached 12.5 billion yuan this week, ranking first among stock ETFs, with the latest scale reaching a historical high of 23.83 billion yuan [1] Index Metrics - The index price-to-book (PB) ratios are as follows: China Securities Company Index at 1.5x, China Bank Index at 0.7x, CSI 300 Non-Bank Financial Index at 1.6x, and the Hong Kong Securities Investment Theme Index at 1.1x [3] - The PB ratio percentiles indicate that the China Securities Company Index is at the 36.6th percentile, the China Bank Index at the 41.6th percentile, the CSI 300 Non-Bank Financial Index at the 29.0th percentile, and the Hong Kong Securities Investment Theme Index at the 68.1st percentile [3] Historical Performance - Over the past month, the cumulative performance of the indices is as follows: China Securities Company Index +4.9%, China Bank Index -4.0%, CSI 300 Non-Bank Financial Index +4.3%, and Hong Kong Securities Investment Theme Index +14.3% [8] - Year-to-date performance shows: China Securities Company Index +1.9%, China Bank Index +13.6%, CSI 300 Non-Bank Financial Index +4.5%, and Hong Kong Securities Investment Theme Index +47.9% [8] - The one-year cumulative performance indicates significant growth, with the Hong Kong Securities Investment Theme Index at +143.3%, while the China Securities Company Index is at +46.0% [8]
金融监管总局部署督导 保险业全力应对主汛期灾害
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-08-08 12:55
7月以来,全国全面进入主汛期,极端降雨导致多地洪涝成灾。作为经济减震器和社会稳定器,保险业 在自然灾害来临时通过分散风险、及时理赔、推动预防,能够有效减少人民群众生命财产损失,提高全 社会整体抗风险能力。 近日,国家金融监管总局发布《关于全力做好主汛期灾害应对和保险理赔服务工作的通知》,要求各有 关金融监管局、各财险公司、银保信公司、保险业协会做好主汛期灾害应对和保险理赔服务工作。 此外,国家金融监管总局党委委员、副局长丛林也先后赴北京市密云区大城子镇苍术会村、河南寨镇, 河北兴隆县六道河镇周家庄村,现场查看受灾受损情况,督导保险理赔等金融服务工作。 各地金融监管局积极应对汛情 四川地形复杂,即使汛期总雨量偏少,但在降水集中时段,单场极端暴雨足以在短时间内引发严重洪涝 灾害。因此,四川辖内多地金融监管局都靠前安排部署,在汛期来临前已启动应急响应机制,筑牢应 急"防护网"。 此外,自7月24日起,通辽市也出现罕见强降雨天气。面对极端暴雨天气,通辽金融监管分局密切监测 雨情汛情动态,建立跨机构应急联动响应机制,指导保险行业协会高效整合行业救援力量,确保人员、 车辆等资源向积水严重、群众受困区域火速驰援。在7月末的 ...