Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the recent US-China negotiations exceeded expectations, particularly in terms of timing rather than tariff levels, with the US maintaining a 30% tariff on China while China retains a 10% tariff on the US [1] - The report suggests that the US's strong negotiation stance is driven by its need for tangible results, as previous negotiations have yielded limited success, indicating that future negotiations may not proceed as smoothly [1][2] - The underlying motivation for the US's tariff strategy is linked to its high net debt and the perceived risk to the creditworthiness of dollar assets, with projections indicating that effective tariffs could rise significantly, potentially reaching 30-50% on China [1][2] Group 2 - The report indicates that China's policy response may be slower, with a focus on maintaining policy confidence and reducing slope expectations, suggesting that existing policies will be implemented promptly while new measures may depend on further economic data [2] - The report highlights that the improvement in consumer spending and balance sheet recovery is anchored by income expectations and essential living guarantees, suggesting a gradual approach to policy implementation [2] - Investment strategies should incorporate a "geopolitical risk premium" into valuation models, advising against excessive exposure to US-related investments while focusing on domestic certainty and expected differences [3] Group 3 - The report recommends a sector allocation strategy labeled "4+1," which includes domestic consumption, technology and defense, cost improvement sectors, structural opportunities abroad, and stable long-term investments [3]

金融工程 | 金工定期报告 金融工程 证券研究报告 2025 年 05 月 11 日 量化择时周报：重大事件落地前维持中性仓位 重大事件落地前维持中性仓位 上周周报(20250505)认为：在风险偏好承压叠加市场格局触发下行趋势， 全 A 指数的 30 日均线构成压力位，但考虑到估值不高，建议在压力位突 破前维持中性仓位。最终 wind 全 A 周二突破 30 日均线，随后迎来上涨。 市值维度上，上周代表小市值股票的中证 2000 上涨 3.58%，中盘股中证 500 上涨 1.6%，沪深 300 上涨 2%，上证 50 上涨 1.93%;上周中信一级行业中， 表现较强行业包括国防军工、通信，国防军工上涨 6.44%，消费者服务、房 地产表现较弱，消费者服务微涨 0.3%。上周成交活跃度上，军工和通信资 金流入明显。 从择时体系来看，我们定义的用来区别市场整体环境的 wind 全 A 长期均 线（120 日）和短期均线（20 日）的距离开始收窄，最新数据显示 20 日 线收于 4946，120 日线收于 5088 点，短期均线继续位于长线均线之下， 两线差值由上周的-3.63%缩小至-2.80%，距离绝对值开 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend in the short term, driven by increased market attention and the effectiveness of "stabilization funds" [1] - Focus areas include the AI industry chain, self-controllable sectors, and consumption sectors benefiting from domestic demand expansion, particularly in service consumption [1] - High dividend sectors are expected to continue attracting investment, especially in banking, coal, public utilities, and transportation [1] Group 2 - The market has recovered from previous negative impacts, but underlying negative factors have not been completely eliminated, suggesting a period of consolidation ahead [2] - It is recommended to adjust the current portfolio by reducing exposure to high-growth technology sectors and reallocating to financial, state-owned enterprises, and dividend-paying sectors [2] Group 3 - The technology sector is likely to continue its strong performance in the short term, with TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) expected to outperform the market [3] - Supportive policies and industry trends are driving the technology sector, with liquidity conditions also becoming more favorable [3] - Historical trends indicate that TMT typically shows strong performance relative to the market in May, driven by policy and industry catalysts [3]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Industry Allocation Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model aims to recommend industry sectors based on medium-term perspectives, focusing on sectors with potential for recovery or growth trends[2][3][10] **Model Construction Process**: The model identifies sectors with recovery potential ("困境反转型板块") and growth opportunities. It recommends sectors such as healthcare (恒生医疗), export-related consumer sectors (e.g., light industry and home appliances), and technology sectors (信创, communication, solid-state batteries). Additionally, it highlights sectors with ongoing upward trends, such as banking and gold[2][3][10] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides actionable insights for medium-term industry allocation, emphasizing sectors with recovery potential and growth trends[2][3][10] - **Model Name**: TWO BETA Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on identifying technology-related sectors with growth potential[2][3][10] **Model Construction Process**: The TWO BETA model recommends technology sectors, including 信创, communication, and solid-state batteries, based on their growth potential and market trends[2][3][10] **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies technology sectors with strong growth potential, aligning with market trends[2][3][10] - **Model Name**: Timing System Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model evaluates market conditions by analyzing the distance between short-term and long-term moving averages to determine market trends[2][9][14] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Define the short-term moving average (20-day) and long-term moving average (120-day) for the Wind All A Index 2. Calculate the difference between the two moving averages: $ \text{Difference} = \text{20-day MA} - \text{120-day MA} $ - Latest values: 20-day MA = 4946, 120-day MA = 5088 - Difference = -2.80% (previous week: -3.63%) 3. Monitor the absolute value of the difference; when it falls below 3%, the market is considered to be in a consolidation phase[2][9][14] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a clear signal for market consolidation, aiding in timing decisions[2][9][14] - **Model Name**: Position Management Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model determines the recommended equity allocation based on valuation levels and short-term market trends[3][10] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Assess valuation levels of the Wind All A Index: - PE ratio: 50th percentile (medium level) - PB ratio: 10th percentile (low level) 2. Combine valuation levels with short-term market trends to recommend a 60% equity allocation for absolute return products[3][10] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to position management, balancing valuation and market trends[3][10] Backtesting Results of Models - **Industry Allocation Model**: No specific numerical backtesting results provided[2][3][10] - **TWO BETA Model**: No specific numerical backtesting results provided[2][3][10] - **Timing System Model**: - Latest moving average difference: -2.80% - Previous week difference: -3.63% - Absolute difference < 3%, indicating a consolidation phase[2][9][14] - **Position Management Model**: - Recommended equity allocation: 60%[3][10]

【财联社早知道】广东省发文大力推进"人工智能+消费" 推动脑机接口等新技术新产品开发与应用推广,这家公司参 股的脑机接口公司的B端产品已正式在多家医院开展多中心 临床试验 一、脑机接口|广东省发文大力推进"人工智能+消费",推动脑机接口等新技术新产品开发与应用推广,机构预计2040年国内脑机 接口市场规模将超1200亿元,这家公司参股的脑机接口公司的B端产品已正式在多家医院开展多中心临床试验 据媒体报道,广东省人民政府办公厅发布关于印发广东省提振消费专项行动实施方案的通知,大力发展新型消费。深入实施数字 消费提升行动,深化即时电商应用,支持即时电商平台企业联合社区、商圈等构筑数字生活服务生态。支持直播电商平台创新虚 拟主播、3D直播间等带货模式。大力推进"人工智能+消费",推动自动驾驶、智能穿戴、超高清视频、脑帆接口、增材制造等新 技术新产品开发与应用推广。 点评:据机构预测,国内脑机接口市场规模预计到2040年将超过1200亿元,年复合增速高达26%，显示出巨大的发展潜力。东 吴证券发布研报称,政策专门把脑机接口纳入高成长性消费新赛道提出,一旦脑机接口技术成熟,快速进入临床应用的收费路径 已经铺好。侵入式技 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Neutral" with an expected industry index increase of -5% to 5% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [22]. Core Insights - The market is currently in a downtrend, with a focus on when the profit effect will turn positive. The current profit effect is around -1% [2][10]. - The report suggests maintaining a neutral position until the 30-day moving average of the wind All A index is breached, considering the low valuation levels [4][10]. - The industry configuration model recommends focusing on "dilemma reversal" sectors, particularly in healthcare and consumer sectors related to export chains such as light industry and home appliances [3][10]. - The TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, emphasizing domestic substitution in the fields of information technology and AI chips [3][10]. - Despite a significant drop on Friday, the banking sector, which is still in an upward trend, remains worthy of attention [3][10]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The wind All A index is currently in a downtrend, with the 20-day moving average at 4908 and the 120-day moving average at 5092.8, indicating a distance of -3.63% [2][9]. - The market's current environment is characterized by uncertainty due to upcoming Federal Reserve meetings and the release of April import and export data [4][10]. Valuation Metrics - The overall PE ratio of the wind All A index is around the 50th percentile, indicating a medium level, while the PB ratio is around the 20th percentile, indicating a relatively low level [3][10]. Positioning Recommendations - The report advises a 50% allocation in absolute return products based on the wind All A index as the main stock allocation [3][10].

每经记者 杨建 每经编辑 彭水萍 （一）重磅消息 1、据央视新闻5月4日报道，随着出入境便利度持续改善，跨境移动支付不断迭代，离境退税"即买即 退"全国推广，这个"五一"假期，中国入境旅游市场订单激增，入境游潜力持续释放。中国社会科学院 旅游研究中心特约研究员王笑宇认为，我们的入境旅游市场增长空间非常广阔，意大利、法国这些发达 国家和世界知名的旅游目的地国家，他们入境游的收入占整个GDP是2%左右，日本是1.3%左右，中国 的入境旅游收入占GDP是0.5%左右。根据摩根士丹利等国际研究机构预测，未来10年中国的入境旅游 的市场将增长4~8倍。 2、5月2日当天，境外离岸市场美元兑人民币汇率（CNH）从7.27一路回到7.21附近，这意味着离岸人 民币汇率单日涨幅超过600个基点。离岸人民币快速上涨，主要受到多方面因素影响，一是近日沃尔玛 等美国大型零售企业通知中国供应商恢复发货，外汇市场对中国外贸环境改善的预期明显提升，纷纷调 高人民币汇率估值；二是华尔街投资机构认为美联储年内仍将多次降息，纷纷提前买涨人民币、日元等 非美货币"对冲"美元贬值风险。第三，节假日期间离岸人民币外汇市场交易活跃度相对较低，部分海外 ...

金融工程 | 金工定期报告 2025 年 05 月 05 日 作者 吴先兴 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110516120001 wuxianxing@tfzq.com 相关报告 1 《金融工程：金融工程-因子跟踪周 报 ： Beta 、换手率因子表现较好 -20250504》 2025-05-04 2 《金融工程：金融工程-哪些行业进 入高估区域？——估值与基金重仓股配 置监控 2025-05-03》 2025-05-03 3 《金融工程：金融工程-净利润断层 本周超额基准 0.92%》 2025-05-03 金融工程 证券研究报告 量化择时周报：突破压力位前保持中性 突破压力位前保持中性 上周周报(20250427)认为：全 A 指数的 30 日均线构成压力位，但考虑到估 值不高，建议在压力位突破前维持中性仓位。最终 wind 全 A 维持原状。 市值维度上，上周代表小市值股票的中证 2000 上涨 0.84%，中盘股中证 500 上涨 0.08%，沪深 300 下跌 0.43%，上证 50 下跌 0.59%;上周中信一级行业中， 表现较强行业包括传媒、计算机，传媒上涨 2.86%，综合金融、房地产 ...

Industry Overview - The esports industry in China has matured, with significant breakthroughs in technologies such as 5G and AIGC. The domestic game market achieved a sales revenue of 302.96 billion yuan in 2023, marking a year-on-year growth of 13.95% and surpassing the 300 billion yuan mark for the first time. The market is projected to reach 324.64 billion yuan in 2024, indicating steady growth potential [1][20][25]. Industry Chain - The esports industry chain has formed a complete ecosystem covering hardware, content, events, and commercialization. The demand for GPUs is driven by the increasing use of high-end computing systems for graphics-intensive gaming applications. The GPU market in China reached 80.7 billion yuan in 2023, growing by 32.78% from 2022, and is expected to reach 107.3 billion yuan in 2024 and 120 billion yuan in 2025 [2][34][39]. Company Focus - Thunderobot Technology, the first esports equipment company listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange, focuses on integrating AI technology. The company has launched the flagship AI gaming laptop ZERO 18 Pro, equipped with high-performance hardware. In 2024, Thunderobot is expected to achieve a revenue of 2.955 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.65% [3][23][59]. Market Dynamics - The esports market is benefiting from the robust growth of esports games, the development of professional and amateur esports events, and the flourishing esports ecosystem. The number of registered esports-related companies in China exceeded 120,000 by the end of 2023, indicating intense competition within the industry [25][56].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the differing core objectives behind the policies of China and the United States, leading to inconsistent market volatility between the two countries [3][4][10] - The report identifies the underlying issue of capital erosion in the U.S. economy, which is driving economic output outflow, rather than merely focusing on trade deficits and manufacturing repatriation [4][14][34] - The analysis reveals that by the end of 2024, the U.S. net foreign liabilities are projected to reach approximately $26.23 trillion, accounting for about 89.88% of nominal GDP, marking a historical high since the Bretton Woods system [4][23][34] Group 2 - The report outlines the core goals and pathways of "Trump 2.0," indicating that reducing trade deficits will take precedence, with expectations of continued high-tier tariffs and policies to promote domestic manufacturing [5][34][35] - The 4.25 Politburo meeting highlights the importance of "bottom-line thinking" in response to external shocks, focusing on domestic demand expansion, technological innovation, and exports to other countries as key strategies [6][39][43] - Investment strategies should focus on "self-controllable" technology and military industries, domestic consumption, and gold as a hedge against external uncertainties, with specific sectors identified for investment opportunities [6][44][43]