宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量深度 2025 年 12 月 12 日 GDP 的顶梁柱 房地产之后下一个是什么？ 以"经济增长保持在合理区间"为目标，汇总"十五五"规划建议的重 点，我们概括理解未来五年支撑经济增长的四个重要方面：1.深化新技术 对现有经济基础的改造；2.自上而下建立源源不断产生新技术的体系；3. 从人的需求出发，化解生产力变化对生产关系产生的影响；4.政府主导的 公共产品供给保障、收入再分配调节和经济稳定增长秩序维护。我们认为 从科技成熟度和产业化周期规律看，未来一段时间内，需要重点关注"现 代化产业体系建设"。 相关研究报告 《需求端或决定通胀延续性》20251211 《白银新高点评》20251211 《11 月通胀点评》20251210 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师：张晓娇 xiaojiao.zhang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300514010002 证券分析师：朱启兵 (8610)66229359 Qibing.Zhu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300516090001 ...

深圳商报首席记者刘琼 12月8日，《中共广东省委关于制定广东省国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》正式发布。 该《建议》提出，支持广州、深圳等建设国际消费中心城市和区域消费中心城市，打造一批"食住文体 游娱购"多业态融合的中心商圈和商业地标；以广州、深圳等城市为重点，推出新技术、新产品、新服 务，推进新品首发、渠道首店、活动首展首秀。 作为万亿级消费城市，深圳零售商业蓬勃发展。数据显示，过去5年，深圳社消零总额连续2年突破万亿 元，批发零售行业规模从4万亿元跃升到6万亿元，全市新增商业综合体超600万平方米，新增各类首店 新业态店等超3500家。 当前，深圳正发力规划建设世界级地标商圈。据今年发布的《深圳市商业网点规划（2025—2035）》， 到2030年，社会消费品零售总额达到1.7万亿元，初步建成2个世界级商圈；到2035年，社会消费品零售 总额接近2.5万亿元，全面建成5个具有全球示范引领效应的世界级商圈。 首发经济提速，今年目标新增1000家以上 在深圳，首发经济正成为提升商业竞争力，激活城市消费的重要力量。 据相关商业机构最新统计数据，2025年第三季度，深圳首店经济"爆发式增长"：222家 ...

天眼查App显示，近日，苏州工业园区利振语贸易商行（个体工商户）成立，法定代表人为蒋定，注册 资本8万人民币，经营范围为一般项目：复印和胶印设备销售；建筑材料销售；五金产品批发；五金产 品零售；油墨制造（不含危险化学品）；五金产品制造；印刷专用设备制造（除依法须经批准的项目 外，凭营业执照依法自主开展经营活动）。 ...

Company Overview - Costco Wholesale is set to announce its earnings on December 11, 2025, with a current market capitalization of $394 billion and revenue of $275 billion over the past twelve months [2] - The company reported operational profits of $10 billion and net income of $8.1 billion [2] Historical Performance - Over the past five years, Costco has recorded 19 earnings data points, resulting in 12 positive and 7 negative one-day (1D) returns, indicating a positive return rate of approximately 63% [8] - The positive return rate drops to 55% when analyzing data from the last three years [8] - The median of the 12 positive returns is 2.4%, while the median of the 7 negative returns is -2.4% [8] Earnings Reaction Strategy - A strategy to capitalize on earnings announcements involves understanding historical odds and positioning ahead of the announcement or observing immediate and medium-term returns post-earnings [3] - The correlation between short-term (1D) and medium-term (5D) returns can guide trading decisions, particularly if a strong correlation is identified [5] Peer Comparison - The performance of peers can influence Costco's post-earnings stock reactions, with historical data showing the relationship between Costco's stock performance and that of peers reporting earnings prior to Costco [6] - For smoother investment options, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, which includes 30 stocks, has consistently outperformed benchmarks like the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices [7]

天眼查App显示，近日，凤阳玺月商贸有限公司成立，法定代表人为杨永林，注册资本100万人民币， 经营范围为许可经营项目：酒类经营；食品销售（依法须经批准的项目，经相关部门批准后方可开展经 营活动，具体经营项目以相关部门批准文件或许可证件为准）一般经营项目：日用品销售；日用品批 发；日用百货销售；互联网销售（除销售需要许可的商品）；办公用品销售；办公设备租赁服务（除许 可业务外，可自主依法经营法律法规非禁止或限制的项目）。 ...

Core Viewpoint - A new company, Hebei Xiong'an Baihuang Yi Trading Co., Ltd., has been established with a registered capital of 30,000 RMB, focusing on various retail and wholesale activities related to footwear, leather, and other consumer goods [1] Company Summary - The company is registered with a legal representative named Li Shukai [1] - The registered capital of the company is 30,000 RMB [1] - The business scope includes wholesale of shoes and hats, sales of raw materials for shoe manufacturing, shoe and leather repair, and sales of bags and leather products [1] Industry Summary - The company operates in a diverse range of sectors including retail and wholesale of clothing, textiles, and daily necessities [1] - It also engages in the sale of various materials such as cotton, hemp, and plastic products, indicating a broad market presence [1] - The company is authorized to conduct business activities independently, except for projects that require approval [1]

Core Viewpoint - A new company, Loudi Chunyu Trade Co., Ltd., has been established with a registered capital of 10,000 RMB, indicating a focus on various retail and wholesale activities in the e-commerce and consumer goods sectors [1] Company Summary - The legal representative of the company is Liu Xiaosheng [1] - The registered capital of the company is 10,000 RMB [1] - The company’s business scope includes internet sales (excluding items requiring licenses), wholesale of clothing and accessories, and various other retail and wholesale activities [1] Industry Summary - The company operates in multiple sectors, including: - Internet sales - Wholesale of clothing and accessories - Sales of arts and crafts, hair accessories, jewelry, automotive parts, daily necessities, and more [1] - The business activities also encompass software development and sales of electronic products, indicating a diverse operational focus [1]

Core Insights - Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) demonstrated consistent growth in comparable sales for November, despite external challenges such as consumer spending concerns, a government shutdown, and reduced SNAP payments [2] Financial Performance - Net sales for November reached $23.64 billion, reflecting an 8.1% increase year over year [2] - Comparable sales increased by 6.9%, indicating strong performance in the retail sector [2]

天眼查App显示，近日，三亚优耐特商贸有限公司成立，法定代表人为吴俊仪，注册资本100万人民 币，经营范围为一般经营项目：建筑材料销售；五金产品零售；五金产品批发；建筑装饰材料销售；密 封用填料销售；建筑材料生产专用机械制造；保温材料销售；隔热和隔音材料销售；五金产品研发；涂 料销售（不含危险化学品）；汽车装饰用品销售；电器辅件制造；电器辅件销售；日用电器修理；家用 电器销售；家用电器零配件销售；电池销售；家具销售；家具零配件生产；家具安装和维修服务；机械 电气设备销售；日用品出租；日用百货销售；日用杂品销售；技术服务、技术开发、技术咨询、技术交 流、技术转让、技术推广；互联网销售（除销售需要许可的商品）；门窗销售；电线、电缆经营；服装 服饰零售；箱包销售；电子产品销售；灯具销售；花卉绿植租借与代管理；礼品花卉销售；树木种植经 营（经营范围中的一般经营项目依法自主开展经营活动，通过国家企业信用信息公示系统（海南）向社 会公示）。 ...

天眼查App显示，近日，成都锦峰博达商贸有限公司成立，法定代表人为王荣海，注册资本100万人民 币，经营范围为一般项目：建筑材料销售；建筑装饰材料销售；建筑用钢筋产品销售；轻质建筑材料销 售；劳动保护用品销售；五金产品批发；五金产品零售；水泥制品销售；金属材料销售；电子专用设备 销售；电子专用材料销售；电力电子元器件销售；电子产品销售；机械设备租赁；机械设备销售；机械 电气设备销售；建筑砌块销售；砖瓦销售；金属矿石销售；消防器材销售；消防技术服务；安防设备销 售；运输货物打包服务；铁路运输辅助活动；国内货物运输代理；运输设备租赁服务；装卸搬运；广告 制作；广告发布；广告设计、代理；平面设计；道路货物运输站经营。（除依法须经批准的项目外，凭 营业执照依法自主开展经营活动）许可项目：建设工程施工；城市建筑垃圾处置（清运）；道路货物运 输（网络货运）；道路货物运输（不含危险货物）。（依法须经批准的项目，经相关部门批准后方可开 展经营活动，具体经营项目以相关部门批准文件或许可证件为准）。 ...