Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: Opened higher in the morning and fluctuated throughout the day with little change in open interest. After Freeport's copper mine production cut announcement on September 24, copper prices rose with increasing positions and market attention. Downstream industries showed low acceptance of the sharp price increase, and domestic pre - holiday stockpiling ended, leading to a weaker spot premium, which suppressed copper prices. With the upcoming National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays in China, overseas market volatility risks should be noted [4]. - **沪铝**: Traded strongly with a slight decline in open interest. Affected by the sharp rise in copper prices last week, aluminum prices stabilized and rebounded but with weak momentum. Before the domestic holiday, there were signs of inventory reduction in electrolytic aluminum, providing support. With a loose macro - environment and an improved supply - demand balance in the peak season, aluminum prices are expected to continue to stabilize and rise [5]. - **沪镍**: Traded in a range with a decline in open interest. The sector effect driven by copper prices faded, and nickel prices dropped back to the level at the beginning of last week. The long - term oversupply of nickel elements continued to suppress nickel prices, but in the short term, the slowdown in port nickel ore inventory accumulation and the reduction of SHFE nickel inventory provided support. With the overall decline of non - ferrous metals in the short term, technical support at the late - September low should be monitored [6]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On September 28, eight departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Non - Ferrous Metals Industry (2025 - 2026)". The plan aims to promote project construction in an orderly manner, avoid low - level redundant construction, and improve investment efficiency. It also emphasizes strengthening resource exploration and utilization, including implementing a new round of ore - finding breakthrough strategies, improving resource recovery and utilization rates, and promoting the comprehensive utilization of recycled resources [8][9]. - **Nickel**: Reuters analysis pointed out a serious disconnect in the key minerals market. Despite the expected surge in long - term demand for energy transition, the current situation is one of oversupply and weak prices. New capacity investments, especially in Indonesia, have led to a significant oversupply of nickel. As of September 29, the SMM1 electrolytic nickel price was 120,700 - 123,300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,000 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The average premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,300 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report presents charts on copper basis, monthly spreads, domestic and overseas exchange inventories, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, monthly spreads, domestic social inventory, overseas exchange inventory, alumina inventory, and aluminum bar inventory [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: Charts cover nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel price trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [36][37][40].

Core Insights - The recent policy from eight departments aims to stabilize growth in the non-ferrous metals industry, focusing on resource exploration and recycling [1][3] - Despite the positive outlook from the policy, market reactions have been negative, with declines in ETFs and key metals like copper and aluminum [1][3] Policy Details - The policy emphasizes two main areas: resource exploration and technological advancements [3] - It targets essential metals such as copper, aluminum, lithium, and nickel, which are crucial for manufacturing and the new energy sector [3] - Significant discoveries include a billion-ton copper reserve in Tibet and Asia's largest lithium mine in Sichuan, enhancing supply chain security [3] - There is a focus on improving recovery rates for low-grade ores and recycling waste materials, with plans for data platforms to enhance resource utilization efficiency [3] Market Reactions - Short-term market sentiment is sensitive, influenced by concerns over demand and external factors like Federal Reserve policies, leading to market adjustments [3] - Long-term prospects remain solid due to the core principles of resource scarcity and policy support, indicating a stable development direction for the industry over the next two to three years [3] Investment Opportunities - Companies with resource reserves are likely to benefit from increased mining rights opportunities, especially those with established positions in key domestic mining areas [4] - Firms specializing in technology for low-grade ore extraction and recycling will gain significant leverage in the market [4] - Sectors related to new energy, particularly lithium, nickel, and cobalt, are expected to see sustained demand supported by policy measures ensuring resource availability [4]

Group 1 - The core incident involves an accident at Freeport's Grasberg copper mine, specifically in the PB1C production block, where approximately 800,000 tons of wet material surged into the mine, leading to operational suspension and infrastructure damage [1] - As of September 24, the accident resulted in 2 confirmed deaths and 5 missing persons, with ongoing search and recovery efforts, as well as an investigation into the incident [1] - According to Huatai Securities, since 2025, there has been a frequency of disturbances in copper mines, with most disturbances being short-term and having limited supply impact; however, the Grasberg mine's supply reduction is expected to significantly affect the market [1] Group 2 - The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has been fluctuating, indicating a balanced supply and demand situation in the market [1] - The Grasberg mine is projected to reduce supply by 200,000 tons by Q4 2025, which may assist in depleting electrolytic copper inventories [1] - For 2026, it is estimated that the combined supply reduction from Kamoa-Kakula and Grasberg mines could reach 400,000 tons, potentially offsetting all global copper mine increases, leading to a significant improvement in the copper supply-demand balance [1] Group 3 - The market anticipates that the expansion of AI-related infrastructure will drive copper demand, alongside frequent disturbances in copper mines and a globally loose fiscal and monetary environment [1] - The price of gold is expected to have a certain drag effect on copper prices, suggesting a potential upward trend in copper prices [1]

Group 1 - The company Xinjiang Xinxin Mining (03833) announced plans to issue A-shares and list on a stock exchange in the People's Republic of China by September 25, 2025, to promote sustainable growth in revenue and shareholder returns [1] - The company will appoint Shenwan Hongyuan Securities (000562) as the pre-listing advisory institution for the proposed A-share issuance, as required by the China Securities Regulatory Commission [1] - As of the date of the announcement, the company has not yet determined the structure for the proposed A-share issuance and has not applied for approval from any relevant regulatory authorities in China [1]

Group 1 - Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia experienced a fatal landslide, leading to a long-term disruption in global copper supply [1][3] - The incident resulted in the death of two workers, with five still missing, and production is expected to not return to pre-accident levels until 2027, with a projected 35% decrease in copper and gold output for 2026 [3] - The Grasberg mine accounts for 50% of Freeport's proven reserves and approximately 70% of its expected production before 2029, indicating a significant impact on the global copper supply chain [3] Group 2 - The copper market has been facing frequent disruptions this year, with aging production facilities and declining resource endowments being major obstacles [3] - The supply-demand balance for copper is expected to remain tight, with actual production often falling short of optimistic forecasts due to various disturbances [3] - The onset of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut cycle is anticipated to benefit metal prices, including copper, silver, gold, and other strategic metals [4] Group 3 - The mining ETF (561330) has seen a net inflow for ten consecutive days, reflecting growing interest in the mining and metals sector amid the current market conditions [1][6] - The mining ETF tracks the China Securities Index for non-ferrous metal mining companies, highlighting the value of domestic mineral resources in the context of global competition [6] - Investors are encouraged to consider various ETFs focused on non-ferrous metals, including those linked to the China Securities Index for broader exposure [6]

Group 1 - The core event involves a fatal landslide at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia, leading to a significant increase in global copper prices and supply chain concerns [1] - The Grasberg mine, the second-largest copper mine globally, has suspended production due to the incident, and the company has invoked force majeure clauses [1] - Freeport anticipates that it will take until 2027 to restore production levels to pre-accident figures, with a projected 35% decrease in copper-gold output for 2026 compared to previous expectations [1] Group 2 - The Grasberg mine accounts for 50% of Freeport's proven reserves and approximately 70% of the expected production before 2029, indicating a long-term impact on global copper supply chains [1] - Citic Futures notes that the reduction in production guidance for the Grasberg mine will exacerbate tightening pressures in the copper market, despite slightly weak terminal demand since September [1] - The expectation of a tightening supply-demand balance is expected to support metal prices, with a focus on potential buying opportunities in copper, aluminum, and tin [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant increase in the performance of the non-ferrous metal ETF (512400) and the impact of Freeport-McMoRan's announcement regarding its Grasberg mine on copper prices and supply risks [1][2] - The non-ferrous metal ETF experienced a jump of nearly 3% in early trading on September 25, 2025, with a turnover of 5.14% and a transaction volume of 639 million yuan [1] - The index tracking the non-ferrous metal sector, the China Securities Index, rose by 2.21%, with notable increases in component stocks such as Luoyang Molybdenum (up 9.59%) and Tongling Nonferrous Metals (up 7.89%) [1] Group 2 - Freeport-McMoRan announced a force majeure at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia, predicting a decline in copper and gold sales for Q3, which has raised concerns about long-term copper supply shortages [1] - Citigroup noted that Grasberg accounts for approximately 3% of global copper supply, indicating that the total loss in Q4 could impact global supply by 3%, with a projected 35% loss affecting about 1% of global supply by 2026 [1] - Following this news, the three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange rose by 2% to $10,172 per ton [1] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% is expected to support gold prices, with ongoing expectations for further rate cuts influencing the market [2] - The weak dollar is providing support for copper prices, and the recent Fed rate cut has driven an upward trend in copper prices [2] - The non-ferrous metal ETF closely tracks the China Securities Index, which includes 50 listed companies in the non-ferrous metal and non-metal materials sectors, reflecting the overall performance of the industry [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market saw a significant rise in the non-ferrous metal sector, with China Daye Nonferrous Metals up over 12%, Luoyang Molybdenum up over 11% reaching a historical high, Jiangxi Copper up nearly 8%, Jinchuan Group up over 5%, Zijin Mining up over 4%, and Ganfeng Lithium up over 3% [1] - Freeport McMoran announced a force majeure on its Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which has reignited market concerns over supply, pushing LME copper futures to a one-year high [1] - The Grasberg mine accounts for 3.2% of global copper supply and over 70% of Freeport's total copper production, with unexpected supply disruptions expected to impact over 6% of global copper output [1] Group 2 - The stock performance of key companies in the non-ferrous metal sector includes: - China Daye Nonferrous Metals: up 12.50%, latest price at 0.063, market cap at 1.127 billion, year-to-date increase of 31.25% [2] - Luoyang Molybdenum: up 11.01%, latest price at 13.910, market cap at 29.7595 billion, year-to-date increase of 179.76% [2] - Jiangxi Copper: up 7.98%, latest price at 26.780, market cap at 9.2732 billion, year-to-date increase of 128.95% [2] - Jinchuan Group: up 5.71%, latest price at 22.200, market cap at 303.8 million, year-to-date increase of 189.09% [2] - Zijin Mining: up 4.59%, latest price at 31.000, market cap at 82.3905 billion, year-to-date increase of 128.01% [2] - Ganfeng Lithium: up 3.35%, latest price at 38.860, market cap at 799.43 million, year-to-date increase of 94.93% [2]

每经AI快讯，9月19日，中国有色矿业(01258.HK)午后涨近6%，截至发稿，涨5.85%，报13.02港元，成 交额1.95亿港元。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year and the first in nine months [1] - The reduction in the excess reserve rate and the reserve rate was also by 25 basis points, bringing them to 4.15% and 4% respectively [1] - Market expectations were met with the 25 basis point cut, but there were significant divisions among decision-makers regarding future rate cuts [1] Group 2 - The company anticipates another rate cut in October due to weak employment data, but inflation concerns may limit future monetary easing [1] - The current economic issues in the U.S. are attributed to rising costs rather than insufficient demand, suggesting that excessive monetary easing could exacerbate inflation and lead to a "stagflation" scenario [1] - Short-term caution is advised regarding potential "sell the news" reactions from investors following the FOMC meeting, while long-term trends indicate that a weakening U.S. economy and ongoing "de-dollarization" may support gold prices [1]