消息面上，金价继续刷新历史新高，首次突破每盎司4465美元，此前一个交易日上涨2.4%，创下一个 多月以来的最大单日涨幅。交易员押注美联储明年将再次降息，低利率环境将对贵金属有利。 今年以来，有色板块持续领跑，年初以来至12月12日，申万一级有色金属指数涨幅86.57%，矿业ETF （159690）跟踪的有色矿业指数年内涨幅达96.13%。 从基本面来看，行业整体盈利能力的提升为板块上行奠定了坚实基础。2025年前三季度，有色金属行业 归母净利润同比增长41.43%，其中，第三季度同比增幅进一步扩大至50.81%。有色矿业指数弹性优势 更大，前三季度、单季度归母净利润分别为49.48%、55.62%。 | 指数 | 润增长率(%) | 第三季度归母净利 前三季度归母净利 平均ROE（％） 润增长率（%） 润增长率(%) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色矿业 | 55.62 | 49.48 | 12.14 | | 有色金属(申万) | 50.81 | 41.43 | 10.61 | | 沪深300 | 10.43 | 5.22 | 8.01 | | SSH黄金股票 | 48. ...

12月23日，贵金属、工业金属齐涨，山东黄金涨超6%，中钨高新、厦门钨业、云南锗业、中矿资源、中金黄金 等跟涨。矿业ETF（159690）涨1.71%，实时价格1.906元刷新上市以来新高。 消息面上，金价继续刷新历史新高，首次突破每盎司4465美元，此前一个交易日上涨2.4%，创下一个多月以来 的最大单日涨幅。交易员押注美联储明年将再次降息，低利率环境将对贵金属有利。 华龙证券认为，价格锚历史性变动，趋势仍未结束，投资需求决定后续空间。黄金与长期美债实际利率的负相 关框架解释力逐步弱化，其背后是美元及美国信用的弱化，黄金作为避险资产的性质得到加强，成为全球范围 内最佳避险资产。 矿业ETF（159690）紧密跟踪有色矿业指数，聚焦铜、黄金、稀土、铝、锂等关键金属资源。前十大成份股覆 盖北方稀土、紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、华友钴业、中国铝业、山东黄金、中金黄金、天齐锂业、赣锋锂业、赤峰 黄金等细分产业链龙头公司。 此外，工业金属价格景气持续。上周，LME铜上涨2.75%LME铝上涨2.80%，沪锡周涨幅6.98%。 华龙证券指出，2026年前后，精炼铜将或出现供需关系拐点，随后转入紧缺。需求方面，美国2026年经济 ...

12月17日，A股有色金属板块走强，中钨高新涨超9%，中矿资源、厦门钨业、天齐锂业、赣锋锂业、 兴业银锡、永兴材料等拉升，矿业ETF（159690）盘中涨2.3%。 消息面上，现货白银站上66美元关口，继续刷新历史新高。 东兴证券指出，受全球矿业项目上游资本支出环境恶化、地缘政治扰动加强，下游新质生产力相关需求 升级影响，金属行业供需结构持续收紧。叠加新一轮降息周期下流动性的持续释放对隐性库存提振的预 期，各相关品种在供给偏刚性而需求强弹性背景下易引发涨价交易，金属行业或已进入新一轮的高景气 周期。 该机构指出，金属的库存周期自2013年以来陷入长达十余年的趋势性去化，尽管2024年前三季度显现有 效的周期性累库，但自2024年10月开始全球的显性库存再度显现趋势性的去化。至今年四季度，全球金 属显性总库存已处于自1990年来约25%分位水平。显性库存的持续弱化一方面显示全球金属供给延续刚 性化特征，另一方面则暗示金属强势定价中低库存交易逻辑的强化。 中证有色金属矿业指数覆盖工业金属、贵金属、能源金属、小金属等细分行业，一篮子配置特性能够有 效分散单一品种的价格波动风险。此外，在能源转型（电动车、光伏）、AI ...

12月22日，A股有色金属板块午后持续走强，白银有色涨停，中钨高新涨超9%，云南锗业、湖南白银、西部黄 金、紫金矿业、中金黄金、赤峰黄金跟涨。矿业ETF（159690）涨2.73%。 中信建投认为，工业金属价格由"金融属性"及"商品属性"共同决定，从金融属性来看，美联储已开启降息周期； 从商品属性来看，全球铜、铝库存均处于相对低位，中国经济复苏可期，叠加新能源行业的拉动，铜铝需求增长 将有所好转。 矿业ETF（159690）跟踪的中证有色金属矿业指数覆盖工业金属、贵金属、能源金属、小金属等细分行业，一篮 子配置特性能够有效分散单一品种的价格波动风险。此外，招商基金表示，在能源转型（电动车、光伏）、AI算 力建设、全球宽松政策的共同推动下，资源需求具备长期支撑，或有助于布局"资源新周期"。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 申万宏源解读指出，近期金价强势主要系12月降息落地、失业率高于预期+CPI低于预期致1月降息预期升温、日 本央行加息靴子落地，长期看货币信用格局重塑持续，大而美法案通过后美国财政赤字率将提升，当前我国黄金 储备偏低，央行购金为长期趋势，金价中枢将持续上行。 除了贵金属持续强势，工业金属价格同样 ...

受此提振，黄金、白银、铂钯等贵金属价格大幅飙升，锡、铜、铝等工业金属亦表现强势。上周LME铜、铝、 铅、锌、锡价格变化为2.8%、2.4%、0.9%、-2.1%、5.1%。 A股贵金属板块走强，白银有色冲击涨停，湖南白银、西部黄金、紫金矿业、中金黄金、赤峰黄金跟涨。矿业 ETF（159690）涨2.19%。 消息面上，美国11月CPI超预期降温，令市场对美联储2026年降息幅度有所上修。具体看，美国11月CPI同比下行 至2.7%，低于预期的3.1%，通胀低于预期，2026年美联储2次25BP的降息路径有望更清晰，货币流动性持续改 善。 12月22日，现货黄金再创历史新高，日内涨幅扩大至1%，COMEX期金涨约0.6%。 中信建投指出，一面是充裕的流动性，一面是供给的强约束，推动商品价格不断挑战阶段性高点。另外，基础原 材料对经济发展的重要性越来越被相关国家重视，甚至启用关税的手段获得这类产品，加剧了市场的区域性缺 口，进一步推动价格的上行。 矿业ETF（159690）跟踪的中证有色金属矿业指数覆盖工业金属、贵金属、能源金属、小金属等细分行业，一篮 子配置特性能够有效分散单一品种的价格波动风险。此外，在能源转 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing strong performance, driven by robust demand and favorable macroeconomic conditions, with significant price increases expected for various metals [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of the latest closing date, the non-ferrous metal sector has seen a year-to-date increase of 68.86%, leading among the Shenwan first-level industries [4]. - The mining ETF (159690) tracking the non-ferrous metal mining index has recorded a year-to-date increase of 78.50%, indicating better relative elasticity [4]. Group 2: Profitability and Growth - The non-ferrous metal industry reported a year-on-year net profit growth of 41.43% for the first three quarters of 2025, with the third quarter showing an even larger increase of 50.81% [4][5]. - The profitability metrics for the non-ferrous mining index indicate a net profit growth of 49.48% for the first three quarters and 55.62% for the third quarter, with an average ROE of 12.14% [5]. Group 3: Valuation and Investment Outlook - The current valuation of the non-ferrous metal mining index stands at 22.99 times PE-TTM, which is at the 37% historical percentile, reflecting a 24% expansion in valuation this year, primarily driven by profit growth rather than valuation expansion [5]. - The index covers various sub-sectors including industrial metals, precious metals, energy metals, and minor metals, providing a diversified investment approach that mitigates price volatility risks [8]. Group 4: Future Demand Drivers - The demand for copper in the new energy sector is expected to be supported by the development of wind and solar power, electric vehicles, and AI infrastructure, amidst a global energy structure adjustment [3]. - The long-term trend of "de-dollarization" and increased gold holdings by certain countries is anticipated to sustain demand for precious metals, further accelerated by the liquidity easing from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [3]. - The rare earth sector is projected to benefit from stable traditional demand and emerging new demands from robotics and low-altitude economies, with domestic supply controls enhancing the industry's global position [3].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing significant growth, driven by supply-demand dynamics and strong fundamentals in the industry, particularly in copper and precious metals [1][2]. Group 1: Non-Ferrous Metal Sector Performance - On November 25, the non-ferrous metal sector in A-shares strengthened, with Huaxi Nonferrous hitting a new high and several companies like Zhongjin Gold and Zijin Mining seeing gains of over 4% [1]. - The mining ETF (159690) rose by 2.74% as of the report [1]. Group 2: Copper Market Dynamics - According to Zhongyuan Securities, the copper price is expected to rise due to supply constraints from declining global copper ore grades, insufficient capital expenditure, and increased mining disruptions [1]. - Demand for copper is supported by global monetary easing and trends in green transformation, particularly in electricity investment, electric vehicles, and data center construction [1]. Group 3: Precious Metals Outlook - Dongguan Securities noted a significant negative correlation between gold and the US dollar index, with the current challenges to the US dollar credit system prompting a reassessment of gold's monetary attributes [1]. - The uncertainty in monetary policy as the Federal Reserve seeks to balance inflation control and economic stability is expected to increase gold's safe-haven premium [1]. - Despite short-term fluctuations due to reduced risk aversion and profit-taking by speculative funds, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to declining dollar credit, sustained safe-haven demand, and regular central bank gold purchases [1]. Group 4: Industry Profitability - The overall profitability of the non-ferrous metal industry has improved, with a 41.43% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in the first three quarters of 2025, and a further increase to 50.81% in the third quarter [2]. - The mining ETF (159690) tracked a net profit growth of 49.48% for the first three quarters and 55.62% for the third quarter [2][3]. Group 5: Index Performance - The non-ferrous mining index showed a net profit growth rate of 55.62% for the third quarter and 49.48% for the first three quarters, with an average ROE of 12.14% [3]. - The non-ferrous metal sector (Shenwan) recorded a net profit growth of 50.81% in the third quarter and 41.43% for the first three quarters, with an average ROE of 10.61% [3].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing significant growth, driven by supply-demand dynamics and strong fundamentals in the industry [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - On November 25, the non-ferrous metal sector in A-shares saw strong performance, with Huaxi Nonferrous hitting the daily limit and reaching a new high [1] - The mining ETF (159690) increased by 2.74% [1] - Key companies such as Zhongjin Gold, Xiyang Co., and Zijin Mining saw stock price increases of over 4% and 2% respectively [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - According to Zhongyuan Securities, the copper price is expected to rise due to supply constraints from declining global copper ore grades and limited new mining projects [1] - Demand for copper is supported by global monetary easing and trends in green transformation, particularly in electric power investment, new energy vehicles, and data center construction [1] Group 3: Profitability and Financial Performance - The non-ferrous metal industry saw a year-on-year net profit growth of 41.43% in the first three quarters of 2025, with the third quarter showing an even larger increase of 50.81% [2] - The mining ETF (159690) tracked the non-ferrous metal mining index, which had net profit growth rates of 49.48% and 55.62% for the first three quarters and single quarter respectively [2][3] Group 4: Industry Metrics - The non-ferrous mining index reported a return on equity (ROE) of 12.14%, while the overall non-ferrous metal sector had an ROE of 10.61% [3] - The SSH gold stocks index showed a net profit growth of 48.61% for the third quarter and 38.66% for the first three quarters [3] Group 5: Long-term Outlook - The non-ferrous metal sector is expected to benefit from long-term resource demand driven by energy transition, AI computing infrastructure, and global monetary policies [3]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals industry has become a market focus since 2025, showing outstanding performance with a cumulative increase of 77.71% year-to-date, leading among 31 first-level industries in the Shenwan classification [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The overall profitability of the non-ferrous metals sector has improved, with a year-on-year growth of 41.43% in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025, and a further increase to 50.81% in the third quarter [2][3] - The CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Mining Index has shown even greater elasticity, with net profit growth rates of 49.48% for the first three quarters and 55.62% for the third quarter [3] - The valuation of the CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Mining Index is currently at 24.16 times PE-TTM, positioned at the 39% historical percentile [3] Group 2: Sector Breakdown - All segments of the non-ferrous metals industry, except for energy metals and new metal materials, have achieved net profit growth in the first three quarters, with industrial metals, precious metals, and minor metals showing increases of 34.27%, 57.31%, and 45.49% respectively [3] - Institutional investors have increased their holdings in the non-ferrous metals sector, with public funds' holding ratio rising to 5.69% in Q3 2025, marking a 1.43% increase from the previous quarter and the highest level since 2021 [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - The industry is expected to benefit from a new cycle in global resources, with a positive outlook on copper, aluminum, and precious metals. Copper and aluminum prices have increased by 5.90% and 5.64% year-on-year in Q3 2025 [8] - Gold prices have surged by 39.88% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with central banks globally purchasing over 1,045 tons of gold in 2024, continuing a trend of high demand [8] - The lithium industry is seeing an improved supply-demand balance, while cobalt prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant impact of rising international gold prices on the non-ferrous metals sector, leading to a surge in mining ETFs and stock prices of key companies [1] - On October 9, the first trading day after the holiday, the mining ETF (159690) surged by 7%, marking a six-day winning streak, with several component stocks hitting the daily limit [1] - The price of Comex gold reached a historical high, surpassing $4000 per ounce, driven by factors such as the U.S. government shutdown and increased central bank gold purchases [1] Group 2 - Citic Securities suggests that the weakening dollar and the ongoing competition in economic development will support strong resource prices, particularly in copper, which has recently exceeded $10,500 per ton [1] - The report indicates that the supply-demand imbalance in copper is exacerbated by production halts at major mines due to accidents, further driving up prices [1] - Additionally, the analysis from Founder Securities points to a favorable environment for continuous interest rate cuts in the U.S., which could support a long-term bullish trend for gold and silver [2]