Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - As the compliance pressure gradually emerges and the mandatory circulation of quotas is basically released, the upward momentum of carbon prices is starting to accumulate, and carbon prices may enter a stage of trend recovery [2] - Although the quota base carry - over of the steel, cement, and electrolytic aluminum industries has increased to 100,000 tons, the actual procurement enthusiasm of most enterprises may be lower than expected due to the limited quota gap (within 3%) in 2025 [3] - Recently, some newly included industry enterprises have successively started basic carry - over procurement. Attention should be paid to whether the price can stabilize above 60 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Conditions - **CEA**: The increase of the main target continued to expand, breaking through the 65 - yuan mark; 590,000 tons were listed, and 1.064 million tons were traded in bulk. Among different years' CEA, CEA24 had a closing price of 65.43 yuan/ton with a 7.26% increase, a total trading volume of 1.445 million tons, and a listed agreement trading volume of 581,400 tons [2][5] - **CCER**: The listed agreement trading volume was 10,000 tons, and the average trading price was 79.00 yuan/ton, with a 25.37% increase [2][7] Strategy Signal The signal strength is 1 (0 means short - position, ±1 means bullish/bearish bias, ±2 means bullish/bearish) [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the carbon quota trading price in the European carbon market increased, the EUA futures price in the US market decreased while the UKA futures price increased, and the KAU25 spot price in the South Korean market decreased. The carbon quota trading volume in the European and US carbon markets increased, while that in the South Korean market decreased. In the national carbon market in China, the cumulative trading volume and transaction amount of carbon emission allowances decreased, but the daily average trading price increased. The weekly trading volume of domestic pilot carbon markets increased, with trading mainly concentrated in the Hubei carbon market [2]. - Two important events occurred in the field of green development last week: the official launch of China's first pressure - energy zero - carbon data center and the successful development of the first 110 - kilowatt - class thermally coupled direct seawater electrolysis hydrogen production system device [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 International Carbon Trading Market Tracking 3.1.1 European Carbon Quota Price and Volume - EUA spot price rose from 81.92 euros/ton on December 1st to 82.56 euros/ton on December 5th, with a weekly increase of 0.78%. The EUA spot trading volume last week was 19.10 tons, a 55.28% increase from the previous week [6]. 3.1.2 US Carbon Quota Price and Volume - EUA futures price dropped from 82.64 euros/ton on December 1st to 81.98 euros/ton on December 5th, with a weekly decrease of 0.80%. The total trading volume of EUA futures last week was 369.90 million tons, a 12.87% increase from the previous week. UKA futures price rose from 55.46 pounds/ton on December 1st to 56.10 pounds/ton on December 5th, with a weekly increase of 0.64% [8]. 3.1.3 South Korean Carbon Quota Price and Volume - KAU25 spot price dropped from 10,800 won/ton on December 1st to 10,450 won/ton on December 5th, with a weekly decrease of 3.24%. The trading volume of KAU25 spot in the South Korean market last week was 35.90 tons, a 23.78% decrease from the previous week [14]. 3.2 Domestic Carbon Market Tracking 3.2.1 National Carbon Market Carbon Quota Volume and Average Transaction Price - The cumulative trading volume of carbon emission allowances (CEA) in the national carbon market last week was 681.84 tons, and the cumulative transaction amount was 399 million yuan. Both the cumulative trading volume and transaction amount decreased compared to the previous week, with a decline of 32.14% and 31.84% respectively. As of December 5th, the daily average trading price of CEA last week was 58.73 yuan/ton, a 0.61% increase from the previous week [17]. 3.2.2 Weekly Average Transaction Price of Carbon Quotas in Domestic Pilot Provincial and Municipal Carbon Markets - Except for the Guangdong Province GDEA and Fujian Province FJEA, the weekly average transaction price of carbon quotas in domestic pilot carbon markets showed a downward trend. The GDEA in Guangdong Province had the largest increase of 2.42%, and the HBEA in Hubei Province had the largest decrease of 8.59%. Compared with the same period last month (November 3rd - November 7th, 2025), except for the BEA in Beijing and the GDEA in Guangdong, the weekly average transaction price of carbon quotas in each pilot carbon market showed a downward trend, with the HBEA in Hubei Province having the largest decrease of 10.75% [20]. 3.2.3 Trading Volume and Transaction Amount of Carbon Quotas in Domestic Pilot Provincial and Municipal Carbon Markets - The carbon quota trading in domestic pilot carbon markets last week was mainly concentrated in the Hubei carbon market. Its weekly trading volume accounted for 89.25% of the total weekly trading volume of all pilot carbon markets, and the transaction amount accounted for 87.86% of the total weekly transaction amount of all pilot carbon markets. The total weekly trading volume of domestic pilot carbon markets last week was 106.16 tons, an increase of 77.37% from the previous week [21]. 3.3 Double - Carbon Frontier Technology Tracking 3.3.1 Official Launch of China's First Pressure - Energy Zero - Carbon Data Center - The first pressure - energy zero - carbon data center in China was officially launched in Shaoxing, Zhejiang. It innovatively constructs an integrated and coordinated operation system of "pressure energy - electric energy - cold energy - computing power", achieving the deep integration of electric energy, cold energy, and computing power generated by natural gas differential pressure power generation. It can provide important support for the development of "Artificial Intelligence +" applications, reaching the leading level in the industry and filling the domestic gap in related technology fields. Compared with traditional commercial data centers, it no longer relies on fossil energy for power generation, achieving "zero - carbon" operation. After the project is put into operation, the annual power generation will exceed 1.5 million kilowatt - hours, and the annual electricity cost savings will exceed 1.2 million yuan [23]. 3.3.2 China Successfully Developed the First 110 - Kilowatt - Class Thermally Coupled Direct Seawater Electrolysis Hydrogen Production System Device - The "Thermally Coupled Direct Seawater Electrolysis Hydrogen Production" achievement press conference was held in Rizhao, Shandong on December 6th. China has successfully developed the first 110 - kilowatt - class thermally coupled direct seawater electrolysis hydrogen production system device, which has achieved continuous and stable operation for more than 500 hours, marking a key breakthrough from the laboratory to engineering application in the field of direct seawater electrolysis hydrogen production. This device solves the problem that traditional green hydrogen must rely on high - purity fresh water and provides a more efficient and low - cost solution for future seawater hydrogen production and other water electrolysis hydrogen production processes [24].

上海环境能源交易所董事长、GF60 专家委员赖晓明表示，当前全国碳市场呈现出规模扩大、活力提 升、结构优化的特征。截止到今年11月底，全国碳排放配额总共成交1.87亿吨，总成交额是115.43亿 元，成交量接近去年全年成交量，累计成交量已经达到8.2亿吨，成交额545亿。刚刚过去的11月，有 730多家企业参与了交易，环比增长29%，同比增长18%。这已经是连续11个月参与交易的企业数保持 增长。新纳入行业当中已经有1277家企业开设了交易账户，前11个月交易量比上年同期增长65.44%。 ...

今日挂牌协议交易成交量275,733吨，成交额16,128,422.19元；大宗协议交易成交量570,500吨，成交额37,758,850.00元；今日无单向竞价。 新华财经北京12月10日电据微信公众号"全国碳交易"，12月10日全国碳市场综合价格行情为开盘价59.55元／吨，最高价59.55元／吨，最低价58.70元／ 吨，收盘价58.90元／吨，收盘价较前一日下跌1.01%。 今日全国碳排放配额总成交量846,233吨，总成交额53,887,272.19元。 2025年1月1日至12月10日，全国碳市场碳排放配额成交量200,044,461吨，成交额12,291,224,036.26元。 截至2025年12月10日，全国碳市场碳排放配额累计成交量830,313,125吨，累计成交额55,323,951,139.77元。 | 名 称 | 价 格 | 单 位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 开 | 59. 55 | 元/吨 | | 最 高 | 59. 55 | 元/吨 | | 最 低 | 58. 70 | 元/吨 | | 收 盘 | 58. 90 | 元/吨 | | 涨幅 | -1.01% ...

Core Insights - The value of carbon sinks ultimately materializes in the market trading segment, with China's blue carbon trading market experiencing significant development since 2020 due to policy-driven initiatives [1] - Despite the progress, challenges remain in the blue carbon trading market, including insufficient liquidity, imperfect trading mechanisms, small transaction scales, and a limited number of participants [1] Group 1 - The blue carbon trading market in China has seen rapid growth since 2020, supported by national policies and successful pilot projects in coastal provinces [1] - Local governments have initiated distinctive blue carbon pilot projects that have shown significant results, expanding value realization from carbon trading to financial integration, such as carbon pledge and carbon insurance [1] - Current pain points in the blue carbon trading market include low liquidity, incomplete trading mechanisms, small transaction volumes, and a lack of diverse participants [1] Group 2 - To address these challenges, it is suggested to expand the participant base by encouraging listed companies to integrate blue carbon into sustainable information disclosure [2] - Innovative products such as small-scale blue carbon spot trading, blue carbon forward contracts, and resalable spot contracts could be introduced to enhance market liquidity [2] - Establishing a scientific pricing mechanism and a comprehensive trading ecosystem, along with clear regulatory frameworks and international cooperation, is essential for improving the market's international influence [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the necessity of financial support for the green low-carbon transition, highlighting the accelerating financialization of electricity and carbon markets globally, with China's green finance moving towards internationalization [1] - The establishment of the "Carbon Emission Trading Market Open Alliance" by China, the EU, and Brazil aims to create a unified global carbon market, focusing on improving compliance carbon markets and carbon pricing policies [1] - Hong Kong is taking initial steps towards international recognition of CCER, carbon quotas, and green certificates, indicating its role as a financial hub in facilitating carbon market transactions [1][6] Group 2 - Carbon futures and options play a crucial role in market pricing and risk management, as evidenced by the experiences of the Chicago Climate Exchange and the EU Emissions Trading System [2] - The holding scale of carbon futures, such as the over 600,000 contracts (600 million tons) in California's carbon quota futures market, serves as a key indicator of effective carbon pricing and market resilience [3] - The continuous expansion of China's national carbon emission trading market since its launch in 2021, with 16 brokerages approved for spot trading, reflects the growing involvement of financial institutions in managing carbon price risks [6] Group 3 - The development of China's green certificate market is rapid, with 4.7 billion certificates issued last year, surpassing the total of developed economies [9] - The demand for green certificates is driven by policy requirements, supply chain demands from multinational companies, and increasing corporate social responsibility awareness [9] - The effective pricing and liquidity of green certificates are essential for market activation, with a focus on achieving hour-level traceability to enhance international credibility [9][11] Group 4 - To promote the international recognition of China's green certificates, it is crucial to strengthen communication with foreign counterparts and understand the roles of various stakeholders in the certification process [10] - The "hour-level" matching of green energy attributes is a significant trend, allowing for more precise reflection of carbon emissions, with successful pilot projects already conducted in Hong Kong [11][12] - China's green certificate system is aligning with global best practices, signaling its capability to meet international standards and enhance cooperation among various stakeholders [12]

Group 1: Carbon Market Development - The establishment of the "Carbon Emission Trading Market Open Alliance" by China, the EU, and Brazil aims to create a unified global carbon market, enhancing compliance carbon markets and pricing policies to address climate change [1] - The Chinese carbon market has been expanding since its launch in 2021, with 16 brokerages approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission to participate in spot trading [4] - The trading volume of carbon futures and options is crucial for price discovery and risk management in emission rights markets, as evidenced by successful implementations in the US and EU [2][3] Group 2: Role of Financial Institutions - Financial institutions are eager to participate in the mainland carbon market, indicating a robust interaction between domestic and international markets [1] - The role of brokers in the carbon market is to help companies manage carbon price volatility using regulated financial instruments [4] - The participation of offshore financial institutions in carbon trading through Hong Kong demonstrates a growing interest in Chinese carbon assets [6] Group 3: Green Certificate Market - China's green certificate market has seen rapid growth, with 4.7 billion certificates issued last year, surpassing the total of developed economies [7] - The demand for green certificates is driven by policy requirements, supply chain demands, and increasing corporate social responsibility [7] - Effective pricing and liquidity are essential for the green certificate market to realize its value, necessitating more trading institutions' involvement [7] Group 4: International Integration of Green Certificates - To promote the international recognition of Chinese green certificates, it is essential to enhance communication with foreign counterparts and understand their systems [8] - The matching of "hourly-level" green energy attributes is a future trend, allowing for more precise carbon emission tracking [9] - Successful pilot projects in Hong Kong demonstrate China's capability to align its green certificate system with international standards [10]

Core Viewpoint - The rebound in CEA prices in November is a result of both policy guidance and changes in market supply and demand [4]. Group 1: Price Trends and Influencing Factors - CEA prices have been declining throughout the year, but November saw a rebound with a maximum price of 70.14 yuan/ton and a minimum of 51.54 yuan/ton, closing up 14.80% from the last trading day of the previous month [4]. - The new quota transfer regulations, which increased the basic transfer amount for key emission units in the steel, cement, and aluminum industries from 10,000 tons to 100,000 tons, have contributed to the price rebound [6]. - The end of the surplus quota sell-off and the government's intention to stabilize prices have also played a role in the price recovery [6][7]. Group 2: Policy Signals and Market Stability - Recent announcements, including a new round of national contributions and policies to promote green and low-carbon transitions, have strengthened expectations for the carbon market [7]. - The upcoming compliance deadline at the end of the year has increased the willingness of some companies to purchase quotas [7]. - The fluctuation of carbon prices is considered a normal market phenomenon, influenced by supply-demand relationships, market expectations, and trading behaviors [7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The current carbon price reflects market expectations regarding quota supply and demand, impacting the decisions and interests of both buyers and sellers [9]. - The low carbon price may benefit companies with quota deficits but could hinder surplus companies from maximizing their reduction potential [9]. - The voluntary carbon market (CCER) prices are currently lower than CEA prices, leading some companies to prefer purchasing CCERs to offset their quotas [9][10]. Group 4: Strategic Recommendations for Companies - Companies are advised to adopt a cautiously optimistic approach towards carbon prices, utilizing basic transfer quotas strategically before the end of the year [12]. - The implementation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2026 may indirectly influence China's carbon market rules and expansion speed, but its direct impact on prices is expected to be limited in the short term [12]. - The transition to a mixed allocation of free and paid carbon quotas is anticipated to enhance carbon price stability and market efficiency [13].

江西瑞昌，一台台发电机组矗立在群山之上。近年来，瑞 昌市大力发展绿色清洁能源，促进节能降耗、低碳减排。 魏东升摄（人民图片） 刚闭幕不久的第十五届全国运动会不仅是体育的盛会，也是一场由大型赛事带动的绿色实践。场馆使用 绿色低碳设计与材料，无废理念贯穿赛事全程，中国南方航空公司专门推出"低碳全运会"主题航班，使 用国家核证自愿减排量（CCER）抵消当次航班碳排放，实现绿色飞行。 货轮在湖北宜昌加注液化天然气。加气站建成投运，为减 少长江流域碳排放提供了条件。 魏启扬摄（人民图片） 无人驾驶矿卡行驶在海南定安县大岭花岗岩矿项目现场。 该项目建立全过程碳排放管控体系，助力绿色矿山向数字 化、智能化、无人化转型升级。 新华社记者 张丽芸摄 为何CCER可以抵消碳排放？这里不得不提到中国的碳市场。在这样一个市场里，碳减排量可以像日常 商品一样被交易。 为何要加快建设碳市场 从启动到现在，中国的碳市场不断完善。今年8月底，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《关于推进 绿色低碳转型加强全国碳市场建设的意见》（以下简称《意见》），碳市场建设迈入了新阶段。 为何要加快建设这样一个市场？ 这要从我们面临的形势说起。 2024年全球 ...

Core Insights - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price index for December 2025, indicating expected buy and sell prices for national carbon emission allowances (CEA) and certified voluntary emission reductions (CCER) [1][2] Group 1: Carbon Price Indices - The expected buy price for CEA is 53.45 CNY/ton, and the sell price is 61.65 CNY/ton, with a midpoint of 57.55 CNY/ton [1] - The expected buy price for CCER is 59.00 CNY/ton, and the sell price is 69.40 CNY/ton, with a midpoint of 64.20 CNY/ton [1] - The buy price index for CCER decreased by 1.12% to 148.32, while the sell price index increased by 1.80% to 166.95 [1] Group 2: Green Certificate Prices - The expected price for green certificates from centralized projects for 2025 is 4.31 CNY/unit, with a price index of 78.36 [2] - The expected price for green certificates from distributed projects is 4.39 CNY/unit, with a price index of 89.07 [2] - The expected price for green certificates from biomass power generation is 3.53 CNY/unit, with a price index of 68.41 [2] Group 3: Carbon Market Performance - In November, the average closing price for CEA was 59.87 CNY/ton, a significant increase of approximately 11% compared to October's average of 53.94 CNY/ton [2] - The average daily trading volume of carbon allowances in November was 236.22 million tons, a decrease of 3.38% from October's 244.49 million tons [2] Group 4: Regulatory Developments - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment announced a quota allocation plan for the steel, cement, and aluminum industries, marking a significant step in carbon market management [3] - By 2027, additional industries such as chemicals, petrochemicals, civil aviation, and papermaking will be included in the carbon market, covering approximately 75% of national CO2 emissions [3] Group 5: Global Carbon Market Trends - The global carbon market showed overall recovery in trading volume, although the Korean carbon market experienced a notable decline [4] - Major global carbon markets generally saw price fluctuations, with mixed results in trading prices month-over-month [4]