文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘整体下跌，还在4.1星。 大盘股下跌多一些，沪深300下跌1.47%。 主要是创业板、科创板下跌多一些。 前两天创业板科创板摸到高估，今天回调不少。 其实创业板和科创板财报没啥问题。 就是三季度上涨太快了。 A股很少有慢牛。以创业板为例，三季度上涨50%。 这个上涨在整个创业板十几年历史上，排历史第二，仅次于2015年一季度的58%。 是最近十年，创业板上涨最快的一个季度。 这个是妥妥的闪电暴涨牛市，快速上涨牛市后，往往遇到波动和回调也很正常。 这个月创业板两次摸到高估，之后又回调了些。 小微盘股整体上涨。市场还是风格轮动。 消费医药等低估品种整体上涨。 其他行业大多数下跌。 港股今天也下跌，港股科技下跌多一些。 螺丝钉也汇总了港股指数的估值，供参考，见文章下方图片。 1. 到今天，三季报就更新差不多了。 从整体上，三季度A股整体上市公司，盈利同比增长速度，比1、2季度有提升，这是个好消息。 也是8-9月A股大幅上涨的原因之一。 三季度的财报，从定性上，跟2季度类似。 分为三个梯队。 第一梯队，是盈利增长最强的，也是估值最高的。代表就是科技方向。 第二梯队，是盈 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant differences between the venture capital (VC) investment practices in Silicon Valley and China, particularly focusing on the prevalence of "Valuation Adjustment Mechanism" (VAM) or "bet-on agreements" in China compared to their rarity in Silicon Valley [1][2][3] Group 1: Differences in Investment Practices - In Silicon Valley, less than 5% of VC agreements include buyback clauses, while over 90% of VC investments in China contain such clauses, typically with a 3-year term [1][2] - The term "对赌协议" (bet-on agreement) is a unique Chinese concept that reflects the competitive nature of the investment ecosystem, contrasting with the neutral term "VAM" used in the U.S. [1][2] - Silicon Valley investors utilize preferred stock with liquidation preferences and anti-dilution rights, providing a more balanced risk-sharing mechanism compared to the debt-like nature of buyback agreements in China [3][4] Group 2: Exit Strategies and Market Conditions - In Silicon Valley, 80% of exits occur through acquisitions rather than IPOs, with major tech companies frequently acquiring startups, while in China, 65% of acquisitions involve companies without prior public financing [3][4] - The IPO market in China is facing significant challenges, with 2024 seeing the lowest fundraising total in nearly a decade at 67.35 billion yuan, while the U.S. Nasdaq continues to see substantial IPO activity [4][5] - The tightening of exit channels in China has led to an increase in buyback events, with 1,741 occurrences in 2024, marking an 8.5% increase from the previous year [5][9] Group 3: Systemic Issues and Responses - The pressure from Limited Partners (LPs) in China, often government-backed, necessitates the inclusion of buyback clauses due to strict exit timelines, which do not align with the longer development cycles of many innovative companies [6][8] - The trend of buybacks has shifted from being a protective mechanism to resembling fixed-income products, indicating a fundamental change in the nature of equity investments in China [6][8] - New solutions are emerging, such as S funds that acquire illiquid shares from VC/PE investors, allowing for a more flexible exit strategy [9][10] Group 4: Future Directions and Innovations - The introduction of flexible buyback terms and the establishment of S funds are part of a broader market correction, aiming to address the systemic failures in funding, exit strategies, and legal frameworks [10][12] - Legislative proposals, such as personal bankruptcy laws, are being discussed to provide legal protections for entrepreneurs, potentially alleviating the burden of personal debt from failed ventures [12][13] - The ongoing exploration of new investment tools, such as convertible bonds, reflects a shift towards more adaptable financial instruments that can better accommodate the realities of the Chinese market [12][13]

格隆汇10月31日｜在对国内经济的乐观情绪、全球货币政策宽松预期以及对新兴市场资产重新燃起的兴 趣推动下，南非股市正迈向自2013年初以来最长的月度连涨。基准指数富时/约翰内斯堡证券交易所非 洲综合指数10月上涨1.5%，有望实现连续第八个月上涨。银行、科技和电信类股票引领涨势，逐渐追 赶此前飙升的贵金属类股票，受益于估值合理以及市场对该国情绪的改善。Unum Capital分析师戴维斯 表示："宏观经济的乐观情绪以及资金向新兴市场的轮动正在推动涨势。本地导向型股票开始回升，可 能是因为与全球同行相比估值更具吸引力。" ...

格隆汇10月31日｜美国股市今年再度迎来亮眼表现，但从衍生品市场来看，后劲可能有限。标普500指 数12月底的期权押注集中在7000点附近。若达到这一整数关口，将意味着该指数在2025年上涨19%。但 这距离周四收盘的6,822.34点仅有2.5%的空间，而今年还剩下两个月。尽管华尔街整体上仍对美股前景 保持乐观，但谨慎的理由依然存在。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，第三次降息远未确定。而科技巨头的财报 则引发了对人工智能支出前景的担忧。经济放缓的迹象正在显现，信用市场中风险较高的部分也开始出 现裂痕，这让美国消费者的健康状况受到质疑。此外，标普500指数的大部分涨幅由少数几只股票贡 献，这一现象令人担忧，一旦这些权重股走弱，市场可能承压。一些策略师在鲍威尔周三讲话后开始下 调乐观预期，尽管年末两个月通常具有季节性强势。但另一个更常见的解释是：投资者往往会在整数关 口附近集中建仓。Gateway Investment Advisors投资策略师Ferrara表示："7,000点的执行价是一个非常受 欢迎的心理关口。" ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index falling by 0.81%, 1.14%, and 2.31% respectively, despite over 3,700 stocks rising and more than 1,500 stocks declining [3] - The innovation drug sector saw significant rebounds, with multiple companies such as Lianhuan Pharmaceutical and Sanofi China hitting the daily limit [3] - The media sector also showed strength, with stocks like Rongxin Culture and Shandong Publishing reaching their daily limits [3] - The AI, Hainan Free Trade Port, and super fusion concepts exhibited strong performance, while technology stocks collectively declined [3] Monthly Performance - For October, the Shanghai Composite Index and North China 50 saw monthly gains of 1.85% and 3.54%, while the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and Sci-Tech Innovation 50 recorded declines of 1.1%, 1.56%, and 5.33% respectively [4] Regulatory Actions - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has initiated investigations into certain industry institutions for spreading false information, emphasizing a "zero tolerance" policy towards such activities [6] Stock Performance - Zhendong Medical has shown remarkable performance, with a cumulative increase of 290% over two months, reaching a closing price higher than its peak during the pandemic [12] - In contrast, technology stocks faced significant declines, particularly in sectors like CPO and PCB, with companies such as Dekoli and Dingtaik Technology experiencing heavy losses [14][13] Fentanyl Concept Stocks - Fentanyl-related stocks showed slight fluctuations, with companies like Wanfu Biology and Dongfang Biology experiencing significant intraday gains, ultimately closing up over 2% [18][19] - The overall performance of the fentanyl concept stocks is linked to the strength of the pharmaceutical sector on that day [19] Textile Industry Insights - The textile industry is expected to benefit from a reduction in tariffs, potentially lowering costs by 10% and enhancing international competitiveness [21] - The overall textile sector showed slight gains, with stocks like Jialin Jie hitting the daily limit, while Meibang Clothing faced a significant drop after reporting substantial losses [22]

总第 4893 期 2025 年 10 月 31 日 星期五 研究观点 新力量 New Force 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com 【公司研究】 中国平安（2318,买入）：寿险及健康险 NBV 增长强劲，三季度利润大增 泡泡玛特 (9992，买入）：业绩超预期，海外业务延续爆发式增长 Alphabet（GOOGL，买入）：业绩全面超预期，实现首个千亿收入季度，大幅上调资本 开支 咨询热线：400-882-1055 服务邮箱：Service@firstshanghai.com 网址：www.mystockhk.com 第一上海证券有限公司 www.mystockhk.com 【公司评论】 特斯拉（TSLA）：周报 【行业评论】 AI 大模型周报 评级变化 | 公司 | 代码 | 评级 | 目标价(港元） | | | 2025年EPS(港元) | | | 2026年EPS(港元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 新 旧 新 | 旧 | 变动 | 新 | ...

Core Insights - The cross-border ETF market has seen significant growth in 2023, with total assets surpassing 900 billion yuan by October 30, driven by increased demand for diversified asset allocation amid changing global economic dynamics [1] - GF Fund has established itself as a leading player in the cross-border ETF space, managing 10 cross-border ETFs with a total scale of 100.77 billion yuan, ranking it among the top in the industry [1][2] Product Overview - GF Fund's four major cross-border ETFs focus on popular sectors, including the largest Nasdaq ETF (159941) with a scale of 30.77 billion yuan, targeting major tech companies like Apple and Microsoft [2] - The Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF (513120) has a scale of 22.8 billion yuan, benefiting from the upward trend in the global innovative drug industry [2] - The Hong Kong Non-Bank Financial ETF (513750) has a scale of 21.9 billion yuan, focusing on non-bank financial institutions in the Hong Kong market [2] - The Hang Seng Technology ETF (513380) also exceeds 10 billion yuan, capturing opportunities in leading tech companies in Hong Kong [2] Market Trends - The Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index has outperformed, with a 57% increase over the past year, reflecting strong investor interest in technology stocks [3] - Cross-border ETFs are increasingly favored by investors for their transparency, flexibility, and lower costs, serving as important tools for risk diversification and capturing overseas market opportunities [3]

【#美股三大指数全线收跌##Meta重挫11.33%#】北京时间31日凌晨，美股三大股指全线收跌。路透社 分析称，原因是市场对人工智能支出激增的担忧导致Meta和微软股价下跌，同时投资者也在消化美联 储更为鹰派的言论。截至收盘，道指跌0.23%；标普500指数跌0.99%；纳指跌1.57%。盘面上，美国大 型科技股多数下跌，万得美国科技七巨头指数下跌2.15%。Meta跌11.33%，特斯拉跌超4%，亚马逊跌 超3%，微软跌近3%，英伟达跌超2%；苹果涨0.63%，谷歌涨超2%。 来源：@中新经纬微博 ...

港股科技30ETF（513160）紧密跟踪恒生港股通中国科技指数，该指数跟踪可经港股通买卖，从事科技 业务并于香港上市的内地公司之表现。前十大重仓股包括中芯国际、快手-W、腾讯控股、阿里巴巴- W、小米集团-W等多只科技龙头股。 10月31日，恒生指数低开0.07%，恒生科技指数低开0.65%，恒生港股通中国科技指数截至发稿跌 0.88%，成分股中涨少跌多，金山软件、黑芝麻智能涨超3%，瑞声科技、美团-W、中国软件国际等跟 涨，华虹半导体、中芯国际跌超3%。 相关ETF中，港股科技30ETF（513160）截至发稿涨0.22%，成交额超1.8亿元，溢折率0.22%，盘中溢 价明显。 资金流向上，Wind金融终端数据显示，港股科技30ETF（513160）昨日获近1.2亿元资金净流入，拉长 时间线看，该ETF近5个交易日有4日获资金净流入，累计"吸金"超2.8亿元。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 消息面上，据21世纪经济报道，截至10月29日，31家百亿私募的377亿重仓股布局图浮出水面。三季 度，他们展开了一场大调仓：新进34家公司、增持12家、减持25家公司，另有46家持股维持不变，将过 半资金押注于科技 ...

人民财讯10月31日电，据地平线消息，近日，地平线与实时3D内容创作和运营平台Unity中国正式签署 战略合作协议。双方将深度融合地平线HSD(Horizon SuperDrive)人机交互系统与Unity3D渲染引擎，共 同打造行业顶级的辅助驾驶人机交互界面(HMI)解决方案。 ...