智通财经APP获悉，赛富时(CRM.US)召开 FY26Q4 财报电话会。公司料Q1 营收为 110.3 亿至 110.8 亿 美元 ，预计名义增长率约为 12% 至 13% 。同时，预计 Q1 的 CRPO 名义同比增长约为 14% 。FY27 全 年 营收预期 458 亿-462 亿美元(增速约 10%-11%)。基于 Q4 的强劲表现以及对 Informatica 整合的信 心，公司将 2030 财年的收入目标上调至 630 亿美元。公司宣布将股票回购授权额度增加至 500 亿美 元，管理层认为当前股价被低估，是极佳的买入机会。 公司管理层强调 AI 不再只是辅助，而是重新定义工作流。AgentForce 在发布后的前 15 个月内完成了 2.9 万笔订单，季度环比增长 50%。包含 Informatica 在内的 AgentForce 和 Data 360 业务 ARR 已超过 29 亿美元，同比大幅增长 200%。Q4 前 100 大单中，超过 75% 的订单包含了 AgentForce 和 Data360。 公 司引入 "智能体工作单元" 来衡量 AI 产生的实际价值。目前平台已交付 24 亿个 ...

让我们先把道德放在一边，坐到CFO（首席财务官）的位置上。 现在是2026年，你面前摆着两份报表： 如果AI的发展真的如我们所愿般"顺利"，那可能恰恰是经济崩溃的开始。 最近，你的朋友圈可能被CitriniResearch的那份《2028全球智能危机》（The2028GlobalIntelligenceCrisis）刷屏了。 不同于以往那些喊着"天网降临"的科幻惊悚片，这份报告可怕在它的"无聊"——它没有终结者机器人，只有冷酷的财务报表、崩塌的信贷数据和消失的白 领阶层。 它推演了一个极其反直觉的逻辑：当AI彻底替代人类劳动时，生产力会暴涨，但经济会自杀。 这听起来像个悖论，对吧？ 今天，我们就来拆解这份报告中最核心的"幽灵GDP"概念，并用更底层的视角，去寻找那个能让我们在2028年幸存下来的"减震器"。 01 "无刹车"的死亡螺旋：如果你是老板，你会怎么选？ 一份是目前的人力成本，包括五险一金、带薪休假、还有员工时不时的情绪波动和低级错误； 另一份是AI代理（Agent）的报价单，24小时不间断工作，成本只有人类的1/10，且还在以摩尔定律的速度下降。 Citrini的报告指出，这将触发一个"OpEx替代 ...

对于国产而言，强势表现标的主要是美股映射模式，结构性定价特点突出。由于ASML、AMAT还处于 新高状态，半导体设备仍将是国产芯片板块的主要情绪点。受制于国内互联网厂商的AI逻辑分歧，叠 加美国数据中心相关标的仍处于盘整期，大数据板块（代表性ETF：大数据ETF华宝（516700））仍处 于横盘波动状态，等待产业链整体的共振机遇。 来源：新浪基金 作者：创业板人工智能ETF华宝（159363）基金经理 曹旭辰 英伟达25日发布的财报显示，该公司2026财年第四季度和全财年营收均创新高，其数据中心业务表现亮 眼。财报显示，该公司2026财年第四季度营收为681亿美元，环比增长20%，同比增长73%；2026财年 营收为2159.4亿美元，同比增长65%；四季度净利润为429.6亿美元，同比增长94%。 最值得关注的一点在于，英伟达对其2027财年第一季度的财务表现做出指引：公司预计2027财年第一季 度毛利率为75%（上下50个基点），好于市场74.6%的预期。英伟达仍保持较高的毛利率，意味着海力 士的HBM并未对英伟达显著涨价，也意味着整体海外数据中心的投入受到大宗商品涨价的影响仍相对 可控。 依托较强的Ag ...

新致软件公告称，2025年度公司实现营业总收入21.17亿元，同比增加6.09%；营业利润-1.20亿元，同比 降低1484.94%；利润总额-1.21亿元，同比降低2105.69%；归属于母公司所有者的净利润-1.20亿元，同 比降低1577.02%。报告期末，公司总资产32.29亿元，较期初增长4.06%；归属于母公司的所有者权益 13.72亿元，较期初降低5.88%。业绩变动主因是新业务规模及盈利未达预期、相关费用计提和投入增加 等。 ...

2026年以来，港股IPO市场延续火热态势，募资总额较去年同期大增10倍。据数据统计，按上市日计 算，2026年1月1日至2月26日，共有24家公司在港交所挂牌上市，较去年同期增加15家；IPO募资额 892.26亿港元，较去年同期大增逾10倍。令人瞩目的是，AI赛道掀起的资本热潮仍在继续，壁仞科技、 智谱、MINIMAX等AI企业均完成港股上市。 据记者不完全统计，2026年以来，已有147家公司向港交所提交IPO招股书。截至目前，处于"待上 市""通过聆讯""处理中"的港交所排队企业391家，其中110家为A股上市公司。据港交所行政总裁陈翊庭 在马年新春开市仪式致辞时透露，目前港交所有488家企业正在排队等候上市，其中超过10家为国际公 司。 刚刚过去的2025年，港股IPO市场迎来强势复苏，全年共有119只新股挂牌上市，IPO募资总额高达 2856.93亿港元，IPO上市数量和募资规模双双攀升。这也是港交所时隔4年IPO募资规模再度突破2000亿 港元整数关，成功夺回全球IPO募资额榜首。 进入2026年，港股IPO市场的强劲势头不减。今年前两个月，已有24家企业成功上市，较去年同期增长 66.67%； ...

Core Insights - The report by Citrini Research outlines a hypothetical scenario of an economic crisis driven by rapid advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) by June 2028, termed the "Global Intelligence Crisis" [3][4] - It emphasizes the "AI Efficiency Paradox," where AI's success leads to economic instability, including widespread white-collar unemployment and the erosion of middle-class income structures [4][10] - The concept of "Ghost GDP" is introduced, indicating that while corporate profits may rise due to AI efficiencies, the purchasing power of displaced workers declines, leading to a slowdown in money circulation and consumer spending [4][11] - The report predicts the collapse of traditional business models reliant on human labor and consumer behavior, particularly in sectors like SaaS, intermediary platforms, and private credit [4][12] Economic Impact - By February 2026, the unemployment rate is projected to reach 10.2%, with the S&P 500 index down 38% from its peak in October 2026, indicating a significant economic downturn [10] - The report notes that while corporate profits have surged due to AI, real wages for white-collar workers have stagnated, leading to a disconnect between productivity gains and consumer spending [11][12] - The economic model is described as a negative feedback loop, where increased AI adoption leads to more layoffs, further reducing consumer spending and prompting companies to invest more in AI [11][36] Industry Disruption - The report highlights that AI's capabilities are rapidly advancing, allowing companies to replace human labor with AI tools, which in turn disrupts traditional business models and revenue streams [12][17] - The software industry is particularly vulnerable, with many companies facing valuation declines and potential defaults due to the inability to sustain previous revenue growth assumptions [45][46] - The emergence of AI-driven consumer agents is changing the dynamics of various industries, including real estate and food delivery, by eliminating traditional intermediaries and reducing costs [20][25] Financial Sector Risks - The private credit market has seen significant growth, but the assumptions underpinning many leveraged buyouts are now being challenged due to AI's impact on revenue stability [45][46] - The report warns of a potential crisis in the mortgage market, as high-quality borrowers may face income instability due to white-collar job losses, raising questions about the reliability of mortgage underwriting assumptions [55][54] - The interconnectedness of financial institutions and the reliance on consumer spending from high-income earners make the economy particularly susceptible to shocks from AI-induced unemployment [43][44]

市场首先要消化的，是资本开支预期的"再抬一档"。 根据高盛汇编的共识预期，2026年科技巨头的AI资本开支将达到6670亿美元。这一数字比四季度财报 季开始时高出了整整1270亿美元，同比增速高达62%。 资本开支大幅上修的另一面，是自由现金流被挤压。 报告强调："超级云厂商资本开支正走向在今年超过经营现金流的90%，这一占比甚至高于互联网泡沫 时期。"在更具体的测算里，高盛指出2026年资本开支预计将占科技巨头经营现金流的92%。 当AI资本开支越冲越猛、估值越来越贵时，高盛提醒市场：真正的风险，往往出现在"增速开始放慢"的 那一刻。 2月24日，高盛全球投资研究在其策略报告《AI交易的拓宽与收窄》中称，近期AI交易波动显著上升， 背后两股力量在拉扯市场：一边是科技巨头资本开支持续"超预期"，另一边是投资者对"AI颠覆传统行 业利润池"的担忧快速升温。 受强劲的资本开支指引推动，存储芯片概念股今年迄今平均大涨55%；而受"AI颠覆论"恐慌影响，软件 股则暴跌了24%。同一个"AI主题"，在不同环节呈现出几乎相反的行情。 高盛将这场剧烈波动的AI交易划分为四个阶段，而目前这四个阶段的股价走向已经截然相反： 面 ...

Group 1 - A-shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.14%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.24% [1] - Lithium mining and chemical sectors led the gains, while MLCC, fiberglass, and oil & petrochemical sectors experienced declines [1] Group 2 - The US stock market is experiencing significant divergence, with non-US markets performing strongly due to high valuations in the US and a focus on growth attributes [2] - Commodity and industrial sectors are performing well, with cyclical industries like materials, industrials, and real estate showing continued upward trends [2] - The valuation of tech growth leaders is converging with traditional value stocks, as seen with Microsoft and ExxonMobil nearing similar valuations [2] Group 3 - The reduction of housing purchase restrictions in Shanghai may stabilize local housing prices [3] - Investment opportunities in the real estate sector are emerging, with potential shifts from policy-driven volatility to a beta market driven by fundamentals [3] - Three investment strategies are suggested: 1) Allocate to stable beta characteristics, 2) Focus on structurally growing real estate development stocks, 3) Consider undervalued private enterprises for potential revaluation [3]

THE 2028 GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE CRISIS A Thought Exercise in Financial History, from the Future "2028年全球情报危机：从未来视角看金融史的思考练习"。 文：王如晨 这应该是2026年开年以来，夸克君读到的最有分量的文章之一。 这是前天(2月23日)，西特里尼研究(CitriniResearch)联合阿拉普·沙阿一起发布的报告。 虽说本地媒体大多没怎么关注，但它一出来，直接像颗惊雷，震到了华尔街。 这份科幻感十足的报告描绘了一个令人不寒而栗的场景：人工智能创新可能在2028年引发一场重大金融危机，并波及全球各行业。 它以2028年为时间背景，作了一番预判式的宏观经济分析，描绘了人工智能引发的全球性金融危机悲观预期。正因这个，直接触发了美股恐慌性抛售。 很直观，标普500指数短期内波动一下子大了起来。软件、信用卡被报告列为"易受AI冲击"板块，直接暴跌。ServiceNow单日跌18%，运通跌 逾10%。SaaS领域最惨，一度被称为"SaaS大屠杀"，跟踪美股SaaS板块的IGV指数调整得明显，Atlassian这些龙头 ...

Market - US stock market closed higher for the second consecutive day, with AI concept stocks rising broadly. The Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all increased. Nvidia and Salesforce are set to release earnings reports, leading investors to reassess tech stock valuations amid concerns about the sustainability of AI capital expenditures. Nvidia's stock rose, but its recent performance has been poor, raising market concerns about AI spending being unsustainable. Some investors believe current market fears are excessive [2][4][5] Company - Nvidia reported fourth-quarter earnings that exceeded expectations, with core data center revenue growing 75% year-over-year, becoming a major driver. Adjusted earnings per share and total revenue also surpassed expectations, with net profit nearly doubling. The company expects first-quarter revenue of $78 billion, significantly outperforming other large tech stocks this year [25][26] - Microsoft shares rose 2.98% despite facing an antitrust investigation by Japan for potential unfair competition in the cloud services market [55] - Salesforce's fourth-quarter revenue was $11.2 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase, marking the fastest growth in two years. However, the company's guidance for fiscal year 2027 indicates a growth of only 10%-11%, which is below Wall Street's expectations. Salesforce has allocated $50 billion for stock buybacks [31] - Samsung launched its Galaxy S26 series, with prices increasing by $100 for two models. The average smartphone price is expected to rise by 6.9% in 2026 due to a shortage of storage chips [22] - Ctrip reported a 60% year-over-year increase in international OTA bookings for Q4 2025, serving approximately 20 million inbound tourists throughout the year [29]