Core Viewpoint - Morning Paper Industry (01812) reported a significant decline in revenue and a substantial increase in net loss for the first three quarters of 2025 compared to the previous year [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved an operating revenue of approximately 3.348 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 83.11% [1] - The net loss attributable to shareholders reached 6.008 billion, which is an increase of 746.05% year-on-year [1] - The basic loss per share was reported at 2.05 yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - Chenming Paper Industry (01812.HK) reported a significant decline in revenue and an increase in net loss for the third quarter of 2025, indicating ongoing financial challenges for the company [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q3 2025 was approximately RMB 1.241 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 79.1% [1] - Net loss for Q3 2025 was around RMB 2.15 billion, an increase of 191.02% year-on-year [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue totaled approximately RMB 3.348 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 83.11% [1] - Net loss for the first three quarters of 2025 reached about RMB 6.007 billion, marking a substantial increase of 746.05% year-on-year [1] - Basic earnings per share for Q3 2025 was -RMB 0.74 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The board of directors of Chenming Paper Holdings (01812) has elected Mr. Jiang Yanshan as the chairman of the 11th board, effective immediately until the term ends on October 28, 2025 [1] Management Changes - The company is currently in a transitional phase of resuming operations and risk mitigation, and has decided not to appoint a new general manager following the expiration of Mr. Li Wei's term [1] - Mr. Jiang Yanshan will act as the general manager during this vacancy until a new general manager is appointed [1] Vice President and Other Appointments - The board has appointed several individuals as vice presidents: Mr. Li Wei, Mr. Liu Peiji, Mr. Meng Feng, Ms. Zhu Yanli, Mr. Dong Lianming, Mr. Guo Qinyan, Mr. Ge Guangming, and Mr. Yuan Xikun [1] - Ms. Zhu Yanli has been appointed as the Chief Financial Officer [1] - Mr. Yuan Xikun has been appointed as the board secretary, and Mr. Zhu Hanliang as the secretary for Hong Kong [1] - Ms. Chen Lin has been appointed as the representative for securities affairs [1]

Core Points - The board of directors of Chenming Paper Holdings (01812) has elected Mr. Jiang Yanshan as the chairman of the 11th board of directors, effective immediately until the term ends on October 28, 2025 [1] - The company is currently in a transitional phase of resuming operations and risk mitigation, and has decided not to appoint a new general manager at this time [1] - Mr. Jiang Yanshan will act as the general manager during the vacancy until a new general manager is appointed [1] - The board has appointed several vice general managers and key positions, including Mr. Li Weixian, Mr. Liu Peiji, Mr. Meng Feng, Ms. Zhu Yanli, Mr. Dong Lianming, Mr. Guo Qinyan, Mr. Ge Guangming, and Mr. Yuan Xikun as vice general managers [1] - Ms. Zhu Yanli has been appointed as the Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Yuan Xikun as the board secretary, Mr. Zhu Hanliang as the secretary (Hong Kong), and Ms. Chen Lin as the representative for securities affairs [1]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 28.94 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.50 billion yuan, an increase of 1.7% [1] - In Q3 2025, the revenue was 9.82 billion yuan, down 6.0% year-on-year, with a net profit of 720 million yuan, up 2.7% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the gross margin was 15.7%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year; the expense ratio was 5.5%, a decrease of 1.0 percentage point year-on-year, leading to a net profit margin of 8.6%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, the gross margin was 14.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year but a decrease of 3.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter; the expense ratio was 5.6%, remaining stable year-on-year and decreasing by 0.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter; the net profit margin was 7.3%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year and a decrease of 2.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] Production Capacity Expansion - The company is steadily advancing its new capacity layout, with the second phase of the special paper project at the Shandong base expected to enter trial production in Q1 2026, alongside ongoing projects for 600,000 tons of bleached chemical pulp and high-end packaging paper [2] - At the Guangxi base, the first phase of the Nanning park has seen the high-end packaging paper production line PM11 start operations in August 2025, with PM12 entering debugging in October 2025; the second phase includes the PM9 special paper line and other pulp production lines that began operations in September 2025 [2] - In the household paper segment, four production lines were initiated at the Nanning park in early 2025, with PM16 and PM17 entering debugging in October 2025, and PM18 and PM19 expected to enter debugging in November 2025 [2] Profit Forecast and Rating - The company is expected to benefit from its integrated forestry and paper-making advantages, with collaborative development across its three major bases in Shandong, Guangxi, and Laos, leading to gradual capacity release and diversified product structure [2] - The projected net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.34 billion yuan, 3.84 billion yuan, and 4.25 billion yuan, respectively, maintaining a "recommended" rating [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The pulp and offset paper may be relatively volatile in the short term. Some pulp mills are under maintenance, reducing supply - side pressure. However, downstream paper开工率 varies, cultural paper consumption has not continued its positive trend from August, and port inventories are relatively high, restricting pulp prices. For offset paper, price increases by some paper mills are favorable for futures prices, and inventory reduction should be monitored [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Forecast and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range for pulp is 4750 - 5350, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.41% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 17.81%. For offset printing paper, the price range is 4150 - 4250, with a volatility of 6.31% and a historical percentile of 8.69% [2]. Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, sell pulp/offset printing paper futures (SP2601, OP2601) at 25% hedging ratio, with suggested entry ranges of 5300 - 5400 for pulp and 4250 - 4300 for offset paper. Also, sell call options (SP2601C5300, OP2601C4250) at 25% ratio when volatility is appropriate [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When inventory is low, buy pulp/offset printing paper futures (SP2601, OP2601) at 25% hedging ratio, with entry ranges of 4950 - 5050 for pulp and 4100 - 4150 for offset paper. Sell put options (SP2512P4850, OP2601P4050) at 25% ratio when volatility is appropriate [2]. Market Analysis - **Pulp**: Spot prices are stable. Some pulp mills' maintenance eases supply - side pressure, but downstream demand is mixed, cultural paper consumption is weak, and high port inventories limit prices. It may wait for the traditional peak season for support [3]. - **Offset Paper**: Starting from November, many paper mills will raise prices by 200 yuan/ton, which is favorable for futures prices, and the futures price shows a slightly upward - trending volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction [3]. Trading Strategies - **Pulp**: In the futures market, buy on dips or wait and see; in the options market, sell out - of - the - money put options for far - month contracts [11]. - **Offset Paper**: In the futures market, sell on rallies; in the options market, wait and see [11]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Paper mills are raising paper prices, there are expectations of a Fed rate cut, and overseas broad - leaf pulp has production cuts and price increases [7][12]. - **Negative Factors**: There is a possibility of reduced overseas shipping costs, high port inventories are difficult to reduce, and the peak demand season is not prosperous [12]. Price and Spread Data - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On October 29, 2025, pulp futures prices (SP11, SP01, SP03) and offset paper futures prices (OP01, OP02, OP03) had different daily and weekly changes, and there were also corresponding price spreads between different contracts [15]. - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: On October 28, 2025, pulp and double - offset paper spot prices in different regions (Shandong, South China, Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai, etc.) and their regional spreads are provided [16]. Basis Data - **Pulp Basis**: The daily changes in pulp basis on October 29, 2025, including different pulp brands and contract combinations, are presented [9]. - **Offset Paper Basis**: The daily changes in offset paper basis on October 29, 2025, for different mills and contract combinations, are shown [9].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $18 million, at the high end of the guidance range of $10 million-$20 million, with year-to-date adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations at $87 million, up from $26 million in the same period last year [4][14] - Net sales reached $399 million, a 1% increase year-over-year, driven by a 3% increase in paperboard shipment volumes, partially offset by lower market pricing [13][14] - Net loss from continuing operations was $54 million, or $3.34 per diluted share, primarily due to a $48 million non-cash goodwill impairment [13][14] - The company generated $34 million in cash from operations and approximately $3.5 million in free cash flows during the quarter [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company successfully completed all three planned major maintenance outages for 2025, with the Lewiston outage costing $24 million and the Augusta outage costing $16 million [4][5] - Fixed cost reduction initiatives are tracking to around $50 million in savings for the year, exceeding the original estimate of $30 million-$40 million [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The industry is facing margin pressure due to low utilization rates, projected to be in the low 80% range by year-end, significantly below the normalized average of 90%-95% [7] - RISI forecasts a net capacity reduction of approximately 350,000 tons in the first half of 2026, which could drive utilization rates above 90% [8][18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is exploring adding CUK swing capability to one of its SBS machines, with an estimated capital requirement of $50 million and a projected return of over 20% [11][12] - The company aims to maintain its market share and defend its SBS mills while focusing on a strong balance sheet [19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management remains optimistic about the long-term fundamentals of the paperboard market, citing strong demand for sustainable packaging solutions [19] - The company expects adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 to be between $13 million and $23 million, anticipating slightly lower paperboard shipments due to seasonality [16][18] Other Important Information - The company has ample available liquidity of $455 million and a net leverage ratio of 2.7x, indicating a stable debt level despite the current industry down cycle [15] - The company repurchased $2 million of shares, bringing the total to $20 million against a $100 million authorization [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Decision to hold the CUK swing capacity project - Management confirmed the decision to hold the project is due to prioritizing a strong balance sheet and market conditions, targeting a leverage ratio in the 1%-2% range [23] Question: Market outlook for SBS and import relief - Management noted that while RISI forecasts a capacity reduction, it is uncertain how the industry will respond, but there are signs of reduced European imports [25] Question: Maintenance schedule for 2026 - Management indicated that costs for maintenance in 2026 would be similar to 2025, with schedules to be finalized and shared in February [27] Question: Incremental strength in shipments and product categories - Management observed strong performance in food service and noted that import relief may be contributing to stronger demand [33] Question: Variability in Q4 guidance - Management highlighted that energy costs and production levels would significantly impact Q4 earnings, with production changes having a substantial effect on earnings [36]

Report Overview - Report Date: October 28, 2025 [1] - Report Issuer: GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD - Report Type: Paper Industry Daily Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The pulp market is expected to remain weak and operate in a low - level oscillation. The double - offset paper futures price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation [4][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Futures - **Basic Situation**: In Shandong, pulp prices are stable, and the supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly. From January to September, the cumulative import volume increased by 5.6% year - on - year to 295200 tons. As of October 17, the port inventory was 2.074 million tons, and the port destocking was lower than expected. Downstream procurement was cautious [4]. - **Index Information**: The report mentions the closing price and holding volume of the pulp index, but no specific data is provided [8]. - **Main Force Trend**: The short - side main force has reduced positions, which is bullish [23]. Double - Offset Paper Futures - **Basic Situation**: In Shandong, double - offset paper prices are stable. Pulp spot is facing a fierce game between high inventory and cost. Last week, the shut - down devices basically resumed production. The production inventory of double - offset paper enterprises was 1.315 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2%. Downstream users mainly replenished orders based on rigid demand, and consumption was not significantly boosted [14]. - **Index Information**: The report mentions the closing price and trading volume of the double - offset paper index, but no specific data is provided [18]. - **Main Force Trend**: The short - side main force has reduced positions, which is bullish [23].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The fundamentals of double-offset paper have remained stable recently, with a slight increase in weekly production and a small rise in inventory. Some paper mills have issued price increase letters, and the implementation of these letters needs to be closely monitored. In the short term, the positions and trading volume in the futures market are low, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Double-offset Paper Futures Data - On October 27, 2025, the price of 0P2601 was 4232, up 0.95% from October 24, 2025. The position volume of the main contract was 1109, down 2.97% from October 24, 2025 [5] Spot Price Data - Double-offset paper prices in various regions such as Shandong and Beijing, and copperplate paper prices in Guangdong and Shandong showed no daily or weekly changes on October 27, 2025 [5] Papermaking Raw Material Data - Prices of various raw materials such as Shandong broadleaf and softwood pulp showed different daily and weekly changes on October 27, 2025. For example, Shandong broadleaf Jinyu was 5500 yuan/ton with no daily or weekly change, while Shandong softwood Moon was 3700 yuan/ton, up 0.94% daily and weekly [5][6] Double-offset Paper Supply and Demand Data - From September 2025 to October 2025, the production, capacity utilization, factory inventory, and social inventory of double-offset paper showed different trends. For example, the production in October 24, 2025 was 20.3 million tons, and the capacity utilization was 56.9% [6] Double-offset Paper Production Gross Profit - The production gross profit of double-offset paper using chemimechanical pulp and broadleaf pulp as the main raw materials also showed different trends from September 2025 to October 2025 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth trends in China's paper and paperboard production, indicating a steady increase in output from 2020 to 2025, with specific data showing a 1.5% year-on-year growth in August 2025 and a cumulative growth of 2.7% from January to August 2025 [1]. Industry Summary - In August 2025, China's production of paper and paperboard (excluding purchased raw paper processing) reached 13.92 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [1]. - From January to August 2025, the cumulative production of paper and paperboard was 106.66 million tons, marking a cumulative growth of 2.7% compared to the previous year [1]. - The data is sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics and compiled by Zhiyan Consulting, a leading industry consulting firm in China [1].