2025 年 05 月 12 日 行业周报 看好/维持 纺织服装 纺织服装 纺服&零售周报:制造端有望企稳回升，关注 618 大促催化(2025. 5.5-5.11) ◼ 走势比较 (30%) (20%) (10%) 0% 10% 20% 24/5/13 24/7/24 24/10/4 24/12/15 25/2/25 25/5/8 纺织服装 沪深300 相关研究报告 <<纺服&零售周报：美护品牌 Q1 表现 亮眼，个护景气度向上(2025.4. 28- 5.4)>>--2025-05-06 <<稳健医疗 24 年报及 25Q1 财报点 评：消费品业务加速成长，核心品类 增速亮眼>>--2025-04-29 <<健盛集团 24 年财报点评：业绩符 合预期，期待无缝利润弹性释放>>-- 2025-04-28 证券分析师：郭彬 电话： E-MAIL：guobin@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190519090001 报告摘要 本周核心观点：1）关税预期缓和：根据商务部新闻发布，5 月 10 日 上午中美经贸高层会谈在瑞士日内瓦开始举行，中共中央政治局委员、国 务院副总理何立峰作为中美经贸中方牵头人。5 ...

ST起步再度涨停，6个交易日内录得5个涨停，累计涨幅为31.67%，累计换手率为21.63%。截至10:21， 该股今日成交量2237.02万股，成交金额6298.87万元，换手率3.59%。最新A股总市值达18.14亿元。 龙虎榜数据显示，该股因连续三个交易日内，收盘价涨幅偏离值累计达到12%的ST证券、*ST证券上榜 龙虎榜1次，买卖居前营业部中，营业部席位合计净买入237.16万元。 4月30日公司发布的一季报数据显示，一季度公司共实现营业总收入0.62亿元，同比下降12.54%，实现 净利润-197.83万元，同比增长45.69%。（数据宝） 近日该股表现 | 日期 | 当日涨跌幅（%） | 换手率（%） | 主力资金净流入（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025.05.09 | 2.97 | 8.52 | 259.11 | | 2025.05.08 | 5.08 | 8.99 | -802.17 | | 2025.05.07 | 4.92 | 0.22 | 241.84 | | 2025.05.06 | 5.17 | 0.07 | 64.02 | | 2025. ...

晨会纪要（2025/05/12） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.05.12） 宏观及策略研究 情绪波动后的基本面博弈——2025 年 5 月宏观经济月报 固定收益研究 双降落地后，债市或回归基本面交易――利率债 5 月投资策略展望 行业研究 秘鲁安塔米拉铜矿停工，欧盟拟改变电车关税政策 ——金属行业 5 月投资策 略展望 轻工纺服一季度业绩均有承压，后续关注内需政策发力——轻工制造&纺织 服饰行业 2024 年年报&2025 年一季报业绩综述 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 要 晨会纪要（2025/05/12） 宏观及策略研究 情绪波动后的基本面博弈——2025 年 5 月宏观经济月报 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，S ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The company is experiencing a decline in revenue and profit margins, with a focus on optimizing organizational management and accelerating resource integration to enhance operational efficiency [1][3] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5.00 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 2.7 billion yuan, which represents 89% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 [1] - The company is adjusting its profit forecasts for 2025-2026 due to weak retail performance and the integration of online and offline channels, with expected net profits of 330 million yuan and 350 million yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively [4] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 480 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 80 million yuan, down 25% year-on-year [1] - For Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 610 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 20 million yuan, down 69% year-on-year [1] - For the full year 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 300 million yuan, down 39% year-on-year [1] Brand Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the DA brand generated revenue of 240 million yuan, down 9% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 77% [2] - The DM brand reported revenue of 30 million yuan, down 29% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 82% [2] - The DZ brand generated revenue of 200 million yuan, down 10% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 74% [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to establish a marketing center to integrate its marketing team and adopt a flat, modular management model to enhance business collaboration [3] - The e-commerce module will be optimized by adjusting the talent structure based on brand dimensions and focusing on platform characteristics to improve team capabilities [3]

2025 年 05 月 07 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/5/6 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 8.05 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 10.04/5.15 | | 总市值(亿元) | 386.62 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 386.62 | | 总股本(亿股) | 48.03 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 48.03 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 45.73 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -48% -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 海澜之家 沪深300 相关研究报告 纺织服饰/服装家纺 公 司 研 究 《Q3 弱零售下负经营杠杆显著，并表 及备货推高库存—公司信息更新报 告》-2024.10.31 《Q2 线下承压线上高增，斯搏兹并 表，延续高分红—公司信息更新报告》 -2024.8.22 2025Q1 主业稳健，期待京东奥莱、FCC 双线发力 ——公司信息更新报告 lvming@kysec.cn 吕明（分析师） 周嘉乐（分析师） 张霜凝（分析师） zhoujiale@kyse ...

| 日期 | 2025/5/6 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 8.05 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 10.04/5.15 | | 总市值(亿元) | 386.62 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 386.62 | | 总股本(亿股) | 48.03 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 48.03 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 45.73 | 股价走势图 纺织服饰/服装家纺 公 司 研 究 2025 年 05 月 07 日 投资评级：买入（维持） 2025Q1 主业稳健，期待京东奥莱、FCC 双线发力 ——公司信息更新报告 lvming@kysec.cn 数据来源：聚源 -48% -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 海澜之家 沪深300 相关研究报告 《Q3 弱零售下负经营杠杆显著，并表 及备货推高库存—公司信息更新报 告》-2024.10.31 《Q2 线下承压线上高增，斯搏兹并 表，延续高分红—公司信息更新报告》 -2024.8.22 吕明（分析师） 周嘉乐（分析师） 张霜凝（分析师） zhoujiale@kyse ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the textile and apparel industry, highlighting the resilience of the sports and outdoor segments [1]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector has shown mixed performance, with the SW textile and apparel index declining by 0.1% from April 25 to April 30, underperforming the SW All A index by 0.1 percentage points. The SW apparel and home textile index increased by 0.3%, outperforming the SW All A index by 0.3 percentage points, while the SW textile manufacturing index fell by 2.1%, underperforming the SW All A index by 2.1 percentage points [3][4]. - Key industry data indicates that the retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles totaled 386.9 billion yuan in the first quarter, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.4%. Textile and apparel exports reached 66.3 billion USD, a 0.6% increase year-on-year, with textile yarns and fabrics up by 4% and apparel down by 2% [3][34]. - Cotton prices have shown a downward trend, with the national cotton price index at 14,103 yuan/ton, down 0.7%, and international cotton prices also declining [3][36]. Summary by Sections Textile Sector - The textile manufacturing sector is experiencing performance divergence, with companies like Weixing showing high growth while others like Huali and Jiansheng report declines in net profit. High-quality stocks in the outdoor equipment supply chain, such as Zhejiang Natural, are seen as having significant rebound potential due to their limited exposure to the U.S. market and successful production ramp-up in Cambodia and Vietnam [10][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand recovery as a key investment theme for 2025, with a focus on high-quality domestic brands and new growth opportunities in outdoor and new consumption sectors [15]. Apparel Sector - The sports apparel segment is leading the market, with brands like Anta and FILA reporting significant year-on-year revenue growth of 65%-70%. Other brands like 361 Degrees also show double-digit growth, while Li Ning and Xtep report moderate growth. The home textile sector, particularly Luolai, has exceeded profit expectations [13][15]. - The report notes that the overall inventory levels in the sports segment are healthy, and discounting remains stable, indicating robust operational quality [13]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights the impact of U.S. tariffs on the textile manufacturing sector, suggesting that the cost burden will be shared among manufacturers, brand owners, and consumers. The long-term implications of the new tariff structure on global supply chains are expected to be significant, with a trend towards supply chain diversification and flexible production capacities [12][15]. - The report also discusses the performance of international apparel companies, noting that Skechers faced a 16% decline in sales in the Chinese market, attributed to increased competition and a slowdown in consumer spending [21][22].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's performance is expected to be strong, with significant contributions from the consolidation of Jia Le. In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.24 billion yuan (up 36.6% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.381 billion yuan (up 229.5% year-on-year) [1][5] - The company's manufacturing segment saw revenue growth driven by acquisitions and improved production efficiency. In 2024, the manufacturing revenue reached 3.534 billion yuan (up 44.6% year-on-year), with notable growth in apparel manufacturing [2] - The brand management segment is actively expanding new channels, with a revenue of 0.658 billion yuan in 2024 (up 5.1% year-on-year). The collaboration with Xiaomi has deepened, launching multiple new products [3] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.234 billion yuan (up 35.6% year-on-year) and a net profit of 0.085 billion yuan (up 20.1% year-on-year) [1] - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 was 9.0% (up 5.3 percentage points year-on-year) [4] Manufacturing Segment - The manufacturing revenue for 2024 was 3.534 billion yuan, with apparel manufacturing revenue growing by 146.4% year-on-year [2] - The gross margin for manufacturing in 2024 was 22.55%, with a decline attributed to the consolidation of Jia Le [2] Brand Management - The brand management revenue for 2024 was 0.658 billion yuan, with distribution revenue increasing by 20.8% year-on-year [3] - The gross margin for brand management was 25.52%, reflecting adjustments in product and channel structure [3] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 5.344 billion yuan, 6.222 billion yuan, and 7.190 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 26%, 16%, and 16% [5][11] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 0.384 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 0.7% [5][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The company has reported a revenue of 690 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 40% to 40 million yuan [1] - The divestment of the Ed Hardy brand has alleviated the company's financial burden, leading to a comparable revenue growth of 1.5% when excluding this brand [1] - The self-portrait, Laurèl, and IRO brands have shown significant growth in the Chinese market, with increases of 17%, 13%, and 14% respectively [1] - The online sales channel has performed well, with a year-on-year growth of 26%, driven by strong performances on platforms like Tmall and Douyin [1] Financial Performance Summary - For the year 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%, but a net loss of 300 million yuan, a significant decline of 393% [2] - The self-portrait brand achieved a revenue of over 500 million yuan, growing by 21%, while Laurèl brand revenue reached 415 million yuan, up 19% [2] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 3.2 billion, 3.3 billion, and 3.5 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected at 160 million, 180 million, and 200 million yuan [4] Strategic Developments - The company is implementing a multi-brand and multi-platform strategy, which has resulted in a 32% year-on-year growth in online sales for 2024 [3] - The company has expanded its physical presence by adding 27 new stores in various cities, including Macau and Shenzhen, indicating a robust expansion strategy [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set at 16.48 CNY [5][16]. Core Views - The company is implementing a youth-oriented strategy to reshape its brand image, transitioning from being recognized as the "first association brand in golf" to a multi-brand strategy in the apparel sector [3]. - The company has reported a revenue of 1.3 billion CNY in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8% to 300 million CNY [1]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5 CNY per 10 shares, totaling 290 million CNY, with a payout ratio of 37% [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For the year 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4 billion CNY, a 13% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 800 million CNY, down 14% [1][4]. - The company's revenue channels include: 1. Direct sales revenue of 2.6 billion CNY in 2024, up 7% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 81% [1]. 2. Franchise revenue of 1.1 billion CNY, up 24% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 70% [1]. 3. E-commerce revenue of 300 million CNY, up 35% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 75% [1]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 4.2 billion CNY, 4.4 billion CNY, and 4.8 billion CNY respectively, with net profits of 820 million CNY, 880 million CNY, and 960 million CNY [4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on establishing a multi-brand portfolio, which includes brands like CARNAVAL DE VENISE, KENT & CURWEN, and CERRUTI 1881, to strengthen its position in the segmented apparel market [3]. - The appointment of youth actor Ding Yuxi as the brand ambassador reflects the company's commitment to engaging with younger consumers and promoting a trendy lifestyle [3].