1. Macro Data Overview - GDP in Q2 2025 grew by 5.2% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the 4.7% in the same period last year [1] - In August 2025, the Manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up from 49.3% in the previous month and 49.1% in the same period last year [1] - The non-manufacturing PMI for business activities in August 2025 was 50.3%, slightly up from 50.1% in the previous month and the same as the 50.3% in the same period last year [1] - In August 2025, new social financing scale reached 256.68 billion yuan, compared with 113.07 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - M0, M1, and M2 growth rates in August 2025 were 11.7%, 6.0%, and 8.8% respectively, with M1 showing significant improvement from -3.0% in the same period last year [1] - New RMB loans in August 2025 were 59 billion yuan, compared with -5 billion yuan in the previous month and 90 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - CPI in August 2025 decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, while PPI decreased by 2.9% year-on-year but improved from -3.6% in the previous month [1] - Fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) cumulative year - on - year growth in August 2025 was 0.5%, down from 1.6% in the previous month and 3.4% in the same period last year [1] - The cumulative year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods in August 2025 was 4.64%, slightly down from 4.8% in the previous month but up from 3.4% in the same period last year [1] - Export value in August 2025 increased by 4.4% year - on - year, while import value increased by 1.3% year - on - year [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference 2.1 Comprehensive - The Minister of Commerce, Wang Wentao, held a round - table meeting with some Chinese enterprises in the US, aiming to stabilize Sino - US economic and trade cooperation and protect the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises [2] - Huarui Bank will lower RMB deposit interest rates starting from September 26, with the current deposit rate down 2 basis points to 0.1%, and fixed - deposit rates for different terms adjusted down by 5 - 20 basis points [2] - Dalian Commodity Exchange will adjust the price limit and trading margin levels for relevant futures contracts during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays [3] - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange will adjust the trading margin and price limit for certain futures contracts starting from September 29 [4] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the trading margin and price limit for certain futures contracts starting from the close of trading on September 29 [4] - The "Work Plan for Steady Growth of the Building Materials Industry (2025 - 2026)" was issued, emphasizing industry management and capacity control [5] 2.2 Metals - International precious metal futures generally declined, while London base metals rose. Freeport McMoRan's Indonesian subsidiary's Grasberg mine suspended production due to a fatal mudslide, with production expected to recover by 2027 and a 35% decline in copper and gold production in 2026 compared to previous forecasts [6] - Since late August, gold and silver futures prices have been rising due to geopolitical risks and Fed rate - cut expectations, but institutions have warned of holiday - holding risks [6] - On September 23, tin inventory reached a 4 - month high, zinc inventory a 2 - year - 5 - month low, aluminum inventory a 6 - month high, copper inventory a 1 - month low, lead inventory a 6 - month low, and nickel inventory a 4 - year - 2 - month high [7] - As of September 24, the gold holdings of SPDR Gold Trust decreased by 3.72 tons (0.37%) compared to the previous day [7] 2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In mid - September, key steel enterprises produced 20.73 million tons of crude steel, a decrease of 0.67% month - on - month but an increase of 4.22% year - on - year; 19.1 million tons of pig iron, an increase of 0.74% month - on - month and 5.41% year - on - year; and 20.61 million tons of steel products, an increase of 5.37% month - on - month and 6.68% year - on - year [8][9] - Global crude steel production in August 2025 was 145.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%, and the cumulative production from January to August decreased by 1.7% year - on - year to 1.2306 billion tons [9] - As of mid - September, the price of coke decreased by 4.69% month - on - month, and the price of coking coal decreased by 0.04% month - on - month [9] 2.4 Energy and Chemicals - International oil prices rose due to a surprise decrease in US EIA crude oil inventory and supply concerns after a Russian refinery was attacked [10] - China's largest single - set natural gas purification plant in Sichuan was put into operation, with a daily processing capacity of up to 7.2 million cubic meters and a maximum of 14.4 million cubic meters [10] - The US Energy Secretary said the US is ready to replace Russian energy in Europe [10] - Russia raised its 2025 oil export forecast to 240.1 million tons [11] - Enterprises expect WTI crude oil to reach $63 per barrel and Henry Hub natural gas to reach $3.30 per million British thermal units by the end of 2025 [12] 2.5 Agricultural Products - Indonesia's palm oil exports to the EU are expected to increase from 3.3 million tons in 2025 to 4 million tons in 2026 [13] - Argentine farmers sold about 1.2 million tons of soybeans on Tuesday [13] - US exporters sold 101,400 tons of soybean cake and meal to Guatemala and 312,956 tons of corn to Mexico for delivery in the 2025/2026 season [13] - The Philippines will extend the rice import ban [14] 3. Financial News Compilation 3.1 Open Market - On September 24, the central bank conducted 401.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1.7 billion yuan on the day [15] - The central bank will conduct 600 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations on September 25, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan, continuing the incremental renewal for the 7th consecutive month [15] 3.2 Key News - Premier Li Qiang stated that China will not seek new special and differential treatment in WTO negotiations, which is a positive move for global trade [17] - Commercial banks can use certain bonds as collateral for treasury cash deposits, with specific collateral requirements [17] - A new policy - based financial instrument with an initial scale of 500 billion yuan is being established, and many regions are in the project application stage [18] - The "Blue Book of Local Government Bonds in China (2025)" shows that local government bonds in 2025 have three characteristics, and fiscal stimulus is expected to continue [18] - Nine departments issued 13 measures to support service exports [18] - From January to August, Shanghai's general public budget revenue increased by 1.1% year - on - year, while expenditure increased by 11.8% year - on - year [19][20] - An expert suggested issuing an additional 100 billion yuan of local government bonds to replace hidden debts this year [20] - Many real - estate enterprises issued bonds recently to replenish funds, as the third - quarter debt repayment peak approached in 2025 [20] - UK new government bond issuances have been cold recently [21] - There are some major bond - related events and overseas credit rating adjustments [21] 3.3 Bond Market Summary - Due to tight liquidity and a strong stock market, the bond market weakened, with rising yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market and falling bond futures [22] - In the exchange bond market, most bonds of Shenzhen Investment Holdings and Vanke declined, while some bonds rose [22] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by 1.30%, and the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index rose by 1.41% [23] - Money market interest rates mostly rose on September 24 [23][24] - Agricultural Development Bank and Ministry of Finance bond auctions had specific winning bid yields and multiples [25] - European and US bond yields showed different trends [26] 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1219 on September 24, down 86 basis points from the previous trading day, and the central parity rate was 7.1077, down 20 basis points [27] - The US dollar index rose by 0.65% in New York trading, and most non - US currencies fell [27] 3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Construction Investment believes that Fujian Province has a strong industrial foundation but lags behind some other provinces, and its industrial structure is related to its natural resources and geographical features [29] - CITIC Construction Investment also suggests that local governments and urban investment companies should focus on attracting and serving high - quality enterprises, and urban investment companies should choose development directions based on the city's development stage [29] - CITIC Securities points out that the combined market share of two convertible bond ETFs in the convertible bond market is about 9.08% as of September 19, and investors can pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [29] 4. Stock Market Key News - The A - share market rose, with the ChiNext Index and STAR 50 reaching new stage highs, and nearly 4,500 stocks rising. Semiconductor, new energy, and other sectors performed well, while AI hardware and banks declined [32] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose by 1.37%, the Hang Seng Tech Index by 2.53%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 1.64%. Tech stocks rose, while pharmaceutical stocks declined [32]

Group 1 - TotalEnergies SE is considered one of the best safe stocks to buy, with a 'Hold' rating and a price target of $65.00, indicating a potential upside of 4.6% [1] - The company, along with QatarEnergy, announced a significant seawater supply project and the full-scale development of the Ratawi oil field in Iraq, marking a major milestone in the Gas Growth Integrated Project [2] - By 2030, TotalEnergies expects 50% of its total revenue to come from LNG production and 20% from renewable energy, showcasing a promising future for the company [3] Group 2 - TotalEnergies SE is a multi-energy company based in Courbevoie, France, specializing in oil, biofuels, natural gas, biogas, and electricity, operating through five segments [4]

Group 1 - The controlling shareholder's action, Ma Sen Energy (Zhangjiagang) Co., Ltd., increased its stake in Donghua Energy by acquiring 5.3093 million shares, representing 0.34% of the total share capital, for a transaction amount of 45.6488 million yuan [1] - The combined shareholding ratio of Donghua Petroleum and its concerted parties rose from 40.66% to 41.00% following the acquisition [1] - The share purchase plan is set to occur within a six-month period starting from April 9, 2025, with a target to acquire no less than 1.9% and no more than 2% of the total shares, which is still in progress [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for crude oil and related products showed a significant upward trend on September 24, with fuel oil futures rising nearly 4% Group 1: Price Movements - As of September 24, the main crude oil futures rose by 1.75% to 483.60 CNY per barrel [1] - The main fuel oil futures increased by 3.81% to 2863.00 CNY per ton [1] - Low sulfur fuel oil futures saw a rise of 1.79% to 3405.00 CNY per ton [1] - Asphalt futures increased by 0.56% to 3396.00 CNY per ton [1] Group 2: Futures Price Data - SC crude oil opened at 479.20 CNY, with a previous close of 473.10 CNY and a last settlement of 475.30 CNY [2] - Fuel oil opened at 2797.00 CNY, with a previous close of 2759.00 CNY and a last settlement of 2758.00 CNY [2] - Asphalt opened at 3395.00 CNY, with a previous close of 3373.00 CNY and a last settlement of 3377.00 CNY [2] - Liquefied petroleum gas opened at 4256.00 CNY, with a previous close of 4235.00 CNY and a last settlement of 4247.00 CNY [2] - Low sulfur fuel oil opened at 3386.00 CNY, with a previous close of 3350.00 CNY and a last settlement of 3345.00 CNY [2] Group 3: Warehouse Inventory Data - As of September 23, the inventory for medium-sulfur crude oil futures remained unchanged at 5,401,000 barrels [3] - Fuel oil futures inventory decreased by 29,910 tons to 97,230 tons [3] - Asphalt futures warehouse inventory remained unchanged at 18,940 tons, while factory inventory decreased by 1,260 tons to 39,180 tons [3] - Liquefied petroleum gas futures inventory decreased by 478 contracts to 12,496 contracts [3] - Low sulfur fuel oil futures warehouse inventory remained unchanged at 10,020 tons [3] Group 4: Basis Data - The basis for fuel oil shows a significant premium, with a spot price of 5400 CNY and a futures price of 2758 CNY, resulting in a basis of 2642 CNY and a basis rate of 48.93% [3] - For asphalt, the basis is 246 CNY with a basis rate of 6.79% [3] - Liquefied petroleum gas has a basis of 353 CNY and a basis rate of 7.67% [3] - Low sulfur fuel oil has a basis of 154 CNY and a basis rate of 4.40% [3]

当地时间本周二，美联储主席鲍威尔出席公开活动并发表讲话。鲍威尔表示，美联储将持续面对就业疲软与通胀反弹的 挑战，因而将继续保持谨慎的货币政策立场来对待降息，他还认为美股的估值"相当高"。讲话后，美国三大股指跌至日 内新低，科技和非必需消费品等类别股票领跌，三大股指本周二集体收跌。截至收盘，道指跌0.19%，标普500指数跌 0.55%，纳指跌0.95%。 在重点个股方面，宣布对OpenAI投资1000亿美元第二日，英伟达收跌2.82%，甲骨文收跌4.36%。投资者谨慎评估这笔 巨额投资对行业的影响。分析人士认为，在OpenAI尚未盈利之际，已过度将其与英伟达绑定，且美国电力供应瓶颈未来 会制约甲骨文新建大型数据中心。 美国监管机构起诉亚马逊案进入陪审团审理阶段 23日，欧洲三大股指涨跌不一 在原油期货方面，伊拉克库尔德地区油田的石油出口未能在本周二如期恢复。据悉，该地区的产能可以保障每日经输油 管线向土耳其出口约23万桶原油，但当地石油公司就出口协议存在分歧，原油出口自2023年3月以来一直中断。受此影 响，国际油价本周二上涨。截至收盘，纽约商品交易所11月交货的轻质原油期货价格收于每桶63.41美元，涨幅为 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [2] 2. Core View - The supply - demand pattern of LPG remains relatively loose, and the futures market has significantly corrected. Although the market sentiment has improved with the marginal improvement of fundamentals and the rebound of external prices, the supply - demand pattern has not reversed. Overseas supply is abundant, and China's LPG arrivals and port inventories are high. After the increase in raw material costs, downstream chemical profits are under pressure again, and demand shows signs of a slight decline. The market may enter a range - bound state after adjustment [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On September 22, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4520 - 4570 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3970 - 4330 yuan/ton; North China market, 4350 - 4650 yuan/ton; East China market, 4300 - 4550 yuan/ton; Yangtze River region market, 4460 - 4700 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4500 - 4655 yuan/ton; South China market, 4548 - 4750 yuan/ton [1]. - In the second half of October 2025, the CIF prices of frozen LPG in East China were propane at 597 US dollars/ton (down 1 US dollar/ton) and butane at 584 US dollars/ton (down 1 US dollar/ton), equivalent to 4673 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton) for propane and 4572 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton) for butane in RMB. In South China, propane was 590 US dollars/ton (down 1 US dollar/ton) and butane was 577 US dollars/ton (down 1 US dollar/ton), equivalent to 4619 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton) for propane and 4517 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton) for butane in RMB [1].

Core Insights - China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) experienced a slight decline in stock price, with a trading volume of 9.87 billion yuan on September 22, reflecting a net financing outflow of 14.74 million yuan [1] - The company reported a significant decrease in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenues of 1,450.099 billion yuan, down 6.68% year-on-year, and a net profit of 83.993 billion yuan, down 5.21% year-on-year [2] Financing and Margin Trading - On September 22, CNPC had a financing buy-in of 54.446 million yuan and a financing repayment of 54.5938 million yuan, resulting in a net financing outflow of 14.74 million yuan [1] - The total financing and margin trading balance for CNPC stood at 2.328 billion yuan, with the financing balance at 2.316 billion yuan, accounting for 0.18% of the circulating market value, which is below the 40th percentile level over the past year [1] Short Selling Activity - On the same day, CNPC saw a short selling repayment of 89,600 shares and a short selling volume of 41,500 shares, with a total short selling amount of 336,200 yuan based on the closing price [1] - The remaining short selling volume was 1.4893 million shares, with a short selling balance of 12.0633 million yuan, also below the 50th percentile level over the past year [1] Company Overview - CNPC, established on November 5, 1999, and listed on November 5, 2007, is involved in the exploration, development, production, transportation, and sales of crude oil and natural gas, as well as renewable energy [2] - The company's revenue composition includes refining products (73.89%), crude oil (45.28%), natural gas (39.06%), chemical products (10.48%), and other segments [2] Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, CNPC had 482,400 shareholders, a decrease of 8.82% from the previous period, with an average of 339,297 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 9.77% [2] - The company has distributed a total of 875.28 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 247.08 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (more clear short - term bearish trend with current investment opportunities) [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (more clear short - term bearish trend with current investment opportunities) [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ (more clear short - term bearish trend with current investment opportunities) [1] - Asphalt: ★★★ (more clear short - term bearish trend with current investment opportunities) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★ (more clear short - term bearish trend with current investment opportunities) [1] Report's Core Views - The bearish trend in the crude oil market continues, with the estimated average price of Brent crude oil in Q4 dropping from $67/barrel in Q3 to $63/barrel. The medium - term strategy is mainly to short on rallies, but there are geopolitical risks around the Iran nuclear negotiation and supply disruption risks from Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities [1]. - Fuel oil is following the downward trend. High - sulfur fuel oil has weak demand (delayed power generation demand and potential weakening of bunker demand due to tariffs) and sufficient supply (increased Middle - East arrivals and stable Russian shipments). Geopolitical risks may support high - sulfur prices in the short - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil has reduced inflow of Western arbitrage cargoes, but the shutdown of a Nigerian RFCC device may push low - sulfur oil to Asia. The third batch of export quotas is lower than expected, but the quota utilization rate is low, so the impact on supply and demand is limited [2]. - Asphalt has a relatively small decline among oil products. The weekly shipment volume has increased significantly. There is pre - holiday rush - work demand in the north. The October production plans of refineries show a significant year - on - year increase. The overall inventory level has decreased, and the futures price shows a slightly bullish consolidation pattern [2]. - The self - use of liquefied petroleum gas in refineries has increased, squeezing the external supply. Typhoon weather affects imports in the South China region, and the arrival volume in the East China region is still low. The overall consumption has increased slightly. The marginal improvement in supply and demand and the expected improvement in import cost support the market price floor, and the LPG market is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The bearish trend in the crude oil market has not ended, and the estimated Q4 average price of Brent crude oil will drop from $67/barrel in Q3 to $63/barrel. The medium - term strategy is to short on rallies, and short positions should be combined with out - of - the - money call options due to geopolitical and supply disruption risks [1]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil: Demand is weak, and supply is sufficient, but geopolitical risks may support prices in the short - term [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Western arbitrage cargo inflow has decreased, but Nigerian factors may push low - sulfur oil to Asia. Export quotas have limited impact on supply and demand [2]. Asphalt - The decline is relatively small among oil products. The weekly shipment volume has increased. There is pre - holiday rush - work demand in the north. The October production plan shows a year - on - year increase. The overall inventory has decreased, and the futures price is in a slightly bullish consolidation pattern [2]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Refinery self - use has increased, squeezing external supply. Typhoon affects imports in the South China region, and the East China arrival volume is low. Overall consumption has increased slightly. The market is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [3].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for crude oil-related products experienced a decline across the board on September 22, with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) leading the drop at over 2% [1]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of September 22, the main crude oil futures fell by 1.65%, settling at 483.10 yuan per barrel [1]. - Fuel oil futures decreased by 1.24%, priced at 2783.00 yuan per ton [1]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil futures saw a decline of 0.65%, with a price of 3383.00 yuan per ton [1]. - Liquefied petroleum gas futures dropped by 2.59%, now at 4255.00 yuan per ton [1]. - The opening prices for various contracts on September 22 included SC crude oil at 485.20 yuan, fuel oil at 2793.00 yuan, and LPG at 4359.00 yuan [2]. Group 2: Warehouse Data - As of September 19, the warehouse data indicated that the futures warehouse receipts for medium-sulfur crude oil remained unchanged at 5,401,000 barrels [3]. - Fuel oil futures warehouse receipts were stable at 127,140 tons [3]. - The warehouse receipts for asphalt futures decreased by 1,330 tons, totaling 40,440 tons [3]. - LPG futures warehouse receipts remained steady at 12,974 contracts [3]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts were unchanged at 10,020 tons [3]. Group 3: Basis Data - The basis data as of September 19 showed a phenomenon of "backwardation" for fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, and low-sulfur fuel oil, where spot prices exceeded futures prices [3]. - The basis for fuel oil was calculated at 2,632 yuan, with a basis rate of 48.29% [3]. - The basis for asphalt was 205 yuan, with a basis rate of 5.65% [3]. - The basis for LPG was 234 yuan, with a basis rate of 5.08% [3]. - The basis for low-sulfur fuel oil was 144 yuan, with a basis rate of 4.07% [3].

Core Viewpoint - ExxonMobil has developed a new type of synthetic graphite that can extend electric vehicle battery life by up to 30%, which is described as a "revolutionary leap in battery performance" by CEO Darren W. Woods [1] Group 1: Technology and Innovation - The new synthetic graphite is currently being tested by multiple electric vehicle manufacturers [1] - Synthetic graphite production is more controllable, cost-effective, and stable in quality compared to mined natural graphite, allowing for faster and smarter large-scale production [1] Group 2: Strategic Acquisitions - ExxonMobil announced the acquisition of synthetic graphite manufacturer Superior Graphite to support its entry into the battery anode graphite market [1] Group 3: Market Positioning - Despite a slowdown in domestic electric vehicle sales, ExxonMobil plans to produce lithium resources in Arkansas by 2030, aiming to become a leading supplier of electric vehicle batteries [1] - The company expects to achieve its first lithium production by 2027 and is evaluating global expansion opportunities, with an anticipated lithium output sufficient to meet the manufacturing needs of over one million electric vehicles annually by 2030 [1] - ExxonMobil's recent initiatives have positioned its business to cover most segments of the electric vehicle battery supply chain [1]