来源：招商证券策略研究 本报告聚焦"反内卷"政策背景下行业产能出清的潜力与路径，通过梳理产能周期规律、复盘历史出清案例、分析当前行业财务信号，探讨哪些行业有望更 快实现低效产能退出。 核心观点 ⚑近年来，"过度内卷"频发，带来由点及面的连锁负面效应：企业层面陷入价格战导致盈利恶化、库存积压、现金流紧张；行业层面竞争失序，中小企业 加速出清、技术升级受阻，陷入低水平重复建设；宏观层面资源错配，产业链协同效率下降，抑制整体创新与高质量发展，反内卷政策背景下，多行业响 应抑制"内卷式"竞争。 ⚑实现"反内卷"与产能出清，需要价格机制、市场竞争机制与产业政策三大路径协同发力。价格机制通过市场化筛选淘汰高成本企业；竞争机制通过破产 清算与并购整合实现资源优化配置；产业政策则通过管控产能、标准约束和激励引导加速结构调整；推动行业向高质量、可持续发展转型。 ⚑复盘过去三轮周期的演绎逻辑，可以发现每一轮周期均呈现"扩张-内卷-出清-重构"的螺旋式演进，产能出清需要通过政策调控与市场机制的协同，推动 资源向高效领域集中。市场表现方面，政策或事件催化往往会形成短期的上涨行情，但重点行业持续的获得超额收益的阶段仍在基本面的改善时期 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates a stable outlook for the market, with a strong emphasis on the performance of individual companies as earnings reports approach, leading to increased differentiation among sectors and stocks [2][4][33] - Key investment themes include a focus on high-growth technology sectors such as AI, robotics, and military technology, which are expected to outperform [7][34] - The report highlights the potential for structural policy changes from the Central Political Bureau, particularly in service consumption and real estate, which could provide additional support for the market [2][4][34] Group 2 - The economic fundamentals are under pressure, with exports maintaining a high level of activity while domestic demand, particularly in services and real estate, remains weak [3][17] - The report forecasts a year-on-year increase of approximately 5.1% in retail sales for July, with fixed asset investment expected to grow by 2.9%, indicating a mixed economic environment [3][17] - The liquidity in the market is described as reasonably ample, although credit growth is expected to slow seasonally, which may impact investment activities [29][30] Group 3 - The first investment theme focuses on high-elasticity growth technology, including AI, computing power, robotics, and military sectors, which are seen as the primary targets for investment [7][34] - The second theme emphasizes sectors with strong economic support or better-than-expected earnings, such as rare earth permanent magnets, precious metals, engineering machinery, motorcycles, and agricultural chemicals [7][34] - The third theme revolves around potential structural policy changes from the Central Political Bureau that could positively impact service consumption and real estate sectors [7][34]

Group 1 - The A-share rare earth permanent magnet sector experienced significant afternoon gains, with Yujing Co., Ltd. rising over 7% [1] - China Rare Earth and Zhenghai Magnetic Materials both increased by more than 6% [1] - Shenghe Resources and Shengxin Lithium Energy also saw upward movement in their stock prices [1]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index declined by 1.11% and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.69% during the trading session [1] - The total market turnover reached 1510.08 million HKD at midday [1] Sector Performance - Online education, film and television, lithium battery, and rare earth permanent magnet sectors experienced significant declines [1] - Conversely, the pharmaceutical outsourcing, logistics, chip, semiconductor, and domestic property sectors showed positive performance [1] Notable Stock Movements - Kuaishou (01024.HK), Bilibili (09626.HK), and Huayi Brothers (01060.HK) each dropped over 4% [1] - New Oriental (09901.HK) fell by more than 2% and BYD Company (01211.HK) also decreased by over 2% [1] - On the upside, Shun Tai Holdings (01335.HK) surged over 10%, Kanglong Chemical (03759.HK) rose more than 8%, WuXi Biologics (02269.HK) increased over 4%, Nongfu Spring (09633.HK) gained over 3%, and JD Logistics (02618.HK) was up over 2% [1]

Group 1: Impact of Raw Material Prices - The company employs a "cost-plus" pricing model, which means that short-term fluctuations in raw material prices may temporarily affect gross margins, but long-term stability can be maintained through gradual price adjustments [2][3] - The company has strong bargaining power in the supply chain due to its unique technological advantages and stable product quality, allowing for quick price adjustments for short-cycle orders [3] - The impact of raw material price fluctuations on profits has a certain lag, and the company continuously optimizes its cost structure through process innovation [3] Group 2: Barriers to Entry in the Rare Earth Permanent Magnet Industry - The company has deep expertise in the consumer electronics sector, having accumulated significant technical knowledge in magnetic application devices [3][4] - A complete industrial chain from production to assembly allows the company to maintain a sustainable cost advantage, with a well-integrated R&D team [3] - The company has established barriers through supplier certifications from well-known consumer electronics clients, making it difficult for competitors to penetrate the supply chain quickly [4] Group 3: Regulatory Impact and Market Trends - The rare earth export controls primarily target seven types of medium and heavy rare earths, with the company only partially affected as it has obtained necessary export licenses [4][5] - The company’s direct export volume is relatively small, mainly selling to domestic bonded zones, thus minimizing the impact of export regulations on its operations [5] - The demand for magnetic components in foldable smartphones is generally higher than in standard smartphones due to structural requirements, although specific usage varies by brand [5]

Group 1 - The current market is in a structural deepening phase driven by incremental capital, with a clear path of "policy catalysis - capital inflow - valuation repair" for sector rotation [1][3] - On July 24, the A-share market continued its strong trend, with major indices rising across the board; the ChiNext Index stood out with a 1.5% increase, indicating a sustained preference for growth-oriented companies [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index and the STAR 50 Index rose by 1.21% and 1.17% respectively, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.65% to 3605.73 points, marking its first time above the 3600-point threshold since January 2022 [1] Group 2 - In the A-share market, the leading sectors are driven by both policy catalysis and capital rotation; the Hainan Free Trade Zone concept surged due to the implementation of zero-tariff policies, with the proportion of zero-tariff items rising to 74% [2] - The rare earth and lithium sectors continued to perform strongly, supported by the global restructuring of the rare earth industry and the international certification of the "Nd-Huanghe Mine" by Chinese research teams, which provides new logic for resource value reassessment [2] - The beauty and personal care sector led the industry with a 3.1% increase, reflecting the combined effects of consumer upgrade demand and valuation repair strategies in oversold segments [2]

Market Overview - The market showed strong fluctuations throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3600 points and the ChiNext Index rising by 1.5% [1] - The Hainan Free Trade Zone sector experienced a surge, with nearly 20 stocks, including Hainan Airport and Hainan Expressway, hitting the daily limit [1] - Financial stocks also performed well, with Jinlong Co. hitting the limit and Zhinanceng rising over 7% to reach a new high [1] - Lithium mining stocks saw another rally, with Shengxin Lithium and Tianqi Lithium hitting the limit [1] - The rare earth permanent magnet sector was strong, with Baogang Co. and Guangsheng Nonferrous Metals also hitting the limit [1] - The Yajiang Hydropower Station concept stocks remained active, with China Power Construction and Poly United achieving four consecutive limits [1] - Overall, nearly 4400 stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets were in the green, with a total transaction volume of 1.87 trillion [1] Hot Topics Hainan Free Trade Port - The Hainan Free Trade Port concept saw significant gains, with stocks like Caesar Travel, Haixia Co., and Kangzhi Pharmaceutical hitting the limit [4] - The catalyst for this surge was a press conference held on July 23, introducing the construction of the Hainan Free Trade Port, which is set to officially start customs closure on December 18, 2025 [4] Yajiang Hydropower Station Concept Stocks - Yajiang Hydropower Station concept stocks continued to rise, with China Railway Industry and Tibet Tianlu hitting the limit, and others like Xining Special Steel and Shanhe Intelligent achieving four consecutive limits [7] - The total investment for the "Yajiang" project is approximately 705.6 billion, with an estimated annual construction investment of about 47 billion, accounting for 43% of the national hydropower basic construction investment in 2024 [9] Rare Earth Magnetic Materials - The rare earth magnetic materials sector saw a significant increase, with stocks like Zhongke Sanhuan, Baogang Co., and Guangsheng Nonferrous Metals hitting the limit [11] - The domestic rare earth price index has shown a clear upward trend, breaking through 192 points, marking a new high since early 2024 [11] - The tightening of supply and the integration of the entire rare earth industry chain are expected to lead to price increases in the medium to long term [12] Other Notable Sectors - The mosquito repellent concept, lithium batteries, pharmaceuticals, and consumer sectors also showed positive performance [13] - The Yajiang Hydropower Station high-level elimination stocks experienced the largest declines [13]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a slight increase in early trading, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3599.44 points, up 0.48%, and a total turnover of 522.3 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.65% to 11130.72 points, with a turnover of 592.7 billion yuan, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.72% to 2327.36 points, with a turnover of 270.9 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The Hainan Free Trade Zone, lithium mining, rare earths, and super hydropower sectors saw significant gains, while precious metals, banking, CPO, and pork sectors experienced declines [1][2] - Nearly 20 stocks related to the Hainan Free Trade Zone hit the daily limit, indicating strong market interest [2] Institutional Insights - Silver Hua Fund noted that the current daily trading volume in A-shares is approaching 1.6 trillion yuan, with financing balances nearing previous market peaks, suggesting a high market risk appetite [4] - Shunshi Investment remains optimistic about the market, citing ample liquidity and increasing trading volumes as indicators of ongoing capital inflow [4] - Citic Securities highlighted the significance of the Hainan Free Trade Port's full closure scheduled for December 18, 2025, which is expected to enhance trade and benefit the tourism industry in Hainan [5] Industry Developments - The photovoltaic industry is set to revise the comprehensive energy consumption standards for polysilicon products to phase out outdated production capacity, with current standards being ≤7.5, 8.5, and 10.5 kgce/kg, and proposed revisions to ≤5, 6, and 7.5 kgce/kg [6] - The National Medical Insurance Administration has initiated the 11th batch of drug procurement, optimizing selection rules to ensure that the lowest bids are justified and not below cost [8] Regulatory Actions - The State Administration for Market Regulation is addressing "involution" competition in the quality sector, targeting companies that compromise brand and product quality for short-term gains, which undermines fair market competition [7]

Group 1: Market Overview - A-shares experienced a rally, with major indices approaching the 3600-point mark, driven by large-cap industry leaders like China Power Construction [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.48% to 3599.44 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index increased by 0.65% and 0.72%, respectively [2] Group 2: Key Stocks and Sectors - China Power Construction (601669) saw a significant surge, hitting the daily limit with a market capitalization of 128.33 billion yuan and a trading volume of 15.48 billion yuan [1] - The Hainan sector experienced a strong performance, with stocks like China Duty Free Group (中国中免) and others in the tourism and retail sectors gaining traction [2][5] - The infrastructure sector initially faced a downturn but rebounded strongly, with engineering machinery, cement, and steel stocks leading the gains [8][9] Group 3: Engineering Machinery Sector - The engineering machinery industry is witnessing a high growth opportunity, supported by major projects, industry cycle upturns, and export growth [12] - Sales data indicates a 13.3% year-on-year increase in excavator sales, with domestic sales up by 6.2% and exports up by 19.3% [12] - The industry is expected to see a recovery, with infrastructure investments and demand for equipment upgrades driving growth [12]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a strong upward trend with the three major indices maintaining a rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.65%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.72% at noon [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.12 trillion yuan, a decrease of 23 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The Hainan Free Trade Zone sector experienced a surge, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit, including HNA Holding, Hainan Airport, and Haima Automobile [1] - The rare earth permanent magnet sector remained active, with Long Magnetic Technology rising by 14% [1] - The hydropower concept stocks showed signs of recovery, with companies like China Power Construction and Tibet Tianlu also hitting the daily limit [1] - Conversely, a few sectors such as precious metals, banking, communication equipment, and pork saw declines, with Taicheng Light falling over 8%, Zhongjin Gold dropping nearly 5%, and Qilu Bank decreasing over 2% [1]