交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2025年5月12日 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为18349吨，环比增长26.69%,高于历史同期平均水平 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为86988吨，环比减少2.16%,上周三元材料 样本企业库存为15556吨，环比增加11.59%。 供给端，2025年4月碳酸锂产量为73810实物吨，预测下月产量为75500实物吨，环比 增加2.29%,2025年4月碳酸锂进口量为20000实物吨，预测下月进口量为24000实物 吨，环比增加20.00%。需求端，预计下月需求有所强化，库存或将有所去化。成本 端，6%精矿CIF价格日度环比有所减少，低于历史同期平均水平，供给过剩程度有所 加强，碳酸锂2507:在62420-63620区间震荡。 每日观点 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、 ...

锂价持续下跌至6.3万元/吨 锂价跌破7万元/吨，锂矿股上市公司一季度整体承压业绩出现分化。 据Wind统计，2025年一季度，A股锂矿板块21家上市公司中有14家盈利，7家亏损。5月9日，碳酸锂期 货主力合约再创新低，最低价跌至6.3万元/吨，已经接近"一体化"矿石提锂企业的成本线。 混沌天成期货分析认为，碳酸锂产能扩张周期延长、资源成本下移、需求增速受限等是导致碳酸锂供需 预期长期过剩，价格不断下跌的直接原因。 在这样的市场环境下，部分企业经营面临困境。一位矿业公司人士向第一财经记者透露，公司加工碳酸 锂所用的锂辉石为外购，目前成本抬升至高于现货售价，但生产却不能停，陷入了"卖一吨亏一吨"的局 面。 锂价跌破成本线，行业业绩分化 总体来看，Wind锂矿指数相关上市公司第一季度合计营收439.65亿元，同比增长16.03%；合计净利润 33.43亿元，同比增1340.4%。 同比2024年一季度业绩已有所好转，去年同期这些上市公司合计营收370.74亿元，同比下降39.93%；合 计净利润为亏损2.69亿元，同比降101.69%。 从企业营收情况来看，一季度仅1家公司营收超100亿元，为西部矿业（60116 ...

在保护头寸、增加收益上非常有效 期权是一个非常灵活的工具，不论是在单纯的交易策略，或是使用在套保之上，都有非常好的效果，因此企业如果原本使 用的是期货套保，那么可以适当地加入一些期权做成组合策略，不论是保护期货部位，或是增加整体收益，都是非常有效的。 我们都知道套保的重要性，也可能知道期货、期权这些衍生工具都可以用来套保，不过这些衍生工具要如何做组合套保 呢？这个问题可能大家就不是那么熟悉了，今天我们就介绍一下这些常见的衍生品套保工具差异，以及如何结合运用。 [期货与期权套期保值对比] 开篇先简单介绍几种套保工具的比较。第一，无套保情形。不做套保，标的物损益皆由投资人自行承担。第二，使用期货 套保。理论上可有效覆盖标的物损益，但同时失去了标的物可能的获利。第三，买进期权套保。最大获利为"标的物获利-付出权 利金"，虽然减少了获利程度，但把成本限制在所付出的权利金之内，并且还能跟随现货获利。第四，卖出期权套保。最大获利 为所收取的权利金，获利程度有限，而最大亏损为"标的物亏损+收取权利金"，在波动较大时无法完全覆盖标的物亏损，但能减 少部分损失。 表为期货与期权套期保值方式比较 从上表中我们可以看到，不同的套保 ...

Core Viewpoint - The control of Cangge Mining has shifted to Zijin Mining Group, which now holds 26.18% of the shares and has achieved financial consolidation despite not owning a majority stake [1][3][4]. Group 1: Control Transfer and Shareholding Changes - Zijin Mining completed the acquisition of Cangge Mining's control within four months, spending 137.29 billion yuan to acquire approximately 392 million shares at 35 yuan per share, representing 24.98% of Cangge Mining's total equity [3][4]. - Following the transfer, the shareholding of the original controller, Xiao Yongming, decreased to 20.13%, with voting rights at 15.1%, while Zijin Mining's voting rights increased to 26.18% [4]. - The board of directors of Cangge Mining underwent significant changes, with most seats now held by Zijin Mining personnel, indicating a complete shift in governance [5][6]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Market Context - Cangge Mining, a key player in the lithium mining sector, reported a total revenue of 32.51 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 37.79% year-on-year, and a net profit of 25.80 billion yuan, down 24.56% [7]. - The decline in revenue was attributed to falling prices of potassium chloride and lithium carbonate, with the average market price for lithium carbonate dropping by 67.04% to 90,100 yuan per ton in 2024 [7][8]. - Despite the downturn, analysts project steady growth for Cangge Mining, with expected revenues of 33.39 billion yuan, 39.88 billion yuan, and 48.63 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [7].

方正证券发布研报称，供给的市场化出清总是需要通过价格深度下跌挤压来实现的。近期锂盐价格快速 下跌，该行认为是行业加速出清的必经阶段。随着澳矿价格的下压，经营压力将传导至最上游矿企。目 前锂矿板块多家企业PB已跌至1.5倍以下，少数企业已跌至1倍附近，行业整体已在底部投资区间内。关 注天齐锂业（002466）、赣锋锂业（002460）、中矿资源（002738）、永兴材料（002756）。 事件：近期碳酸锂价格快速下跌。截至5月8日，广期所碳酸锂主力合约2507收盘价64280元/吨，4月以 来下跌14%。现货价格65250元/吨，4月以来价格下跌12%。 方正证券主要观点如下： 成本：部分澳矿25Q1成本显著下降，引发澳矿价格下跌 截至4月30日，SMM统计中国碳酸锂库存达到9.6万吨，为21年以来最高水平。其中冶炼厂持有5.1万 吨，下游持有4.5万吨，为21年以来最高水平。25年2月起，国内碳酸锂库存持续上行，也反应了现货市 场供给仍较为宽松。 供给：成本倒挂，锂盐产量出现下降态势 由于锂盐价格在4月后快速下跌，锂盐冶炼企业已陷入成本倒挂状态。以外购锂辉石原料为例，当前的 生产现金成本高达7万元，已低于锂盐 ...

富宝资讯：碳酸锂现货价格较上一交易日环比持平，富宝电池级碳酸锂报63950元/吨 金十期货5月9日讯，富宝锂电网发布数据显示，电碳现货基差指数为510元/吨（持平）；电池级碳酸锂 报63950元/吨（持平）；工业级碳酸锂（综合）报62700元/吨（持平）；电池级碳酸锂长协均价65250 元/吨（-250元/吨）；氢氧化锂指数报60500元/吨（持平）；锂辉石（非洲 SC 5%）报385美元/吨（-20 美元/吨）；锂辉石（中国 CIF 6%）报725美元/吨（-15美元/吨）；锂辉石指数（5%≤ Li2O <6%）报 5435元/吨（-50元/吨）；锂云母指数（2%≤ Li2O <4%）报1894元/吨（-42元/吨）；磷锂铝石（7%≤ Li2O <8%）报7565元/吨（-75元/吨）；富锂铝电解质指数报1821元/吨（-15元/吨）；富宝卤水（硫酸 锂）折扣系数报71.5%（持平）。 ...

Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 13.1 billion in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 68%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -7.9 billion, a year-on-year decline of 208% [1] - In Q4 2024, the revenue was 3 billion, down 58% quarter-on-quarter and 18% year-on-year, with a net profit of -2.2 billion, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decline of 175% and a year-on-year decline of 345% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.584 billion, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.02%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 104 million, a year-on-year increase of 102.68% [1] Operational Developments - The company has expanded its lithium chemical product capacity to over 120,000 tons, with Greenbushes currently having a total lithium concentrate capacity of approximately 1.62 million tons per year [2] - In 2024, the company produced 1.41 million tons of lithium concentrate, including 1.353 million tons of chemical-grade lithium concentrate and 57,000 tons of technical-grade lithium concentrate [2] - The construction of key projects is progressing steadily, with the chemical-grade plant No. 3's dry processing facility completed, and the wet processing facility construction is set to advance in the first half of 2025 [2] Investment Outlook - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 1.768 billion, 3.176 billion, and 5.150 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 27, 15, and 9 times [3]

天齐锂业（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 002466） 公司点评 一季度盈利改善，资源端持续扩张 [Table_Rank] 投资评级：买入（维持） 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 业绩 ⚫ 风险提示 新建产能不及预期；下游需求不及预期；新技术出现；不可控的全球地 缘风险。 | ⚫[Tab重要财务指标 le_Profit] | | | | 单位:百万元 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要财务指标 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入 | 13063 | 15788 | 20900 | 27426 | | 收入同比（%） | -67.7% | 20.9% | 32.4% | 31.2% | | 归属母公司净利润 | -7905 | 1768 | 3176 | 5150 | | 净利润同比（%） | -208.3% | 122.4% | 79.6% | 62.2% | | 毛利率（%） | 46.1% | 47.2% | 50.1% | 50.2% | | ROE（%） | -18.9% | 4 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The downstream raw material inventory in the lithium industry is at a high level, with sufficient warehouse receipt inventory. In the short term, downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement, and the willingness to stock up has not increased. The social inventory continues to accumulate, resulting in a supply surplus situation [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 66,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 450 yuan/ton [1] - SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 65,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton [1] Lithium Futures Contracts - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2505 is 64,120 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.55% [1] - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2506 is 64,200 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.92% [1] - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2507 is 64,160 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.99% [1] - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2508 is 65,320 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.77% [1] - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2509 is 65,520 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.86% [1] Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton [1] - The average price of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton [2] - The average price of lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [2] - The average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 6500 yuan/ton [2] - The average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 7600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 31,875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 105 yuan/ton [2] - The average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 146,420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [2] - The average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 116,885 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton [2] - The average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 123,665 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2] Price Differences - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2] - The difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 2490 yuan/ton, an increase of 650 yuan/ton [2] - The difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [2] - The difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 1120 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 132,033 tons, an increase of 169 tons [2] - The smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 51,033 tons, a decrease of 1367 tons [2] - The downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 45,169 tons, an increase of 2346 tons [2] - The other inventory (weekly, tons) is 35,831 tons, a decrease of 810 tons [2] - The registered warehouse receipt inventory (daily, tons) is 36,244 tons, an increase of 1008 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 70,422 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 4684 yuan/ton [3] - The cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 71,805 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 7653 yuan/ton [3] Downstream Sales - According to the comprehensive estimate of Passenger Federation data, the wholesale sales volume of new - energy passenger vehicle manufacturers in China in April was 1.14 million, with a year - on - year increase of 42% and a month - on - month increase of 1%. The cumulative sales volume from January to April this year is estimated [3]

阿根廷采矿商会Caem：阿根廷2025年锂产量预计同比增长 77%，达到1.318亿吨LCE。 ...