大摩闭门会：汽车、工业、交运、房地产行业更新 260128 摘要 航空业发动机维修维护高峰期预计在 2026-2028 年，春秋航空已受影 响。春运期间票价和需求健康，预计春节期间机票不会大幅降价。国际 航线票价优于国内，但成本通胀和维修费用上升构成压力，低油价和利 用小时提升可部分抵消。 快递行业管理层预计 2026 年件量增长接近 10%，高于市场悲观预期。 头部企业如中通和圆通追求高于行业平均的增速，反内卷政策延续，利 好头部企业集中份额，优化成本结构，极兔和圆通积极拓展国际市场。 房地产市场二手房成交量改善，但主要受短期因素影响，对可持续性持 保留态度。预计 2026 年房地产政策延续温和态势，大力度刺激政策可 能性较低，高库存弱情绪下，房价或延续量价齐低态势，全国二手房价 预计继续下降。 华润万象 2026-2027 年增速放缓担忧过度，第三方商场扩张可支撑利 润增长。若利润增速 10%，2026 年股息率 5.2%，2027 年接近 6%， 股价仍有上涨空间，建议持续关注。 工业行业整体需求复苏，设备需求进入上升周期，与数据中心、储能或 机器人相关公司增长强劲。看好 AIDC 设备相关板块，受益于 ...

智慧、智能、智聚三条"智链"拉动制造业提档升级 济宁"智造"托举"大国重器" 飞驰的高铁动车组如何稳稳刹停？核电站海水管道怎样实现数十年抗腐？推土机如何会思考能决 策？这些"大国重器"平稳运行的密码，藏在济宁制造业的"智造"基因里。当地以智慧、智能、智聚三 条"智链"为牵引，用一个个硬核配套案例，挺起了先进制造业的脊梁。 智能制造的"数字引擎"，让济宁"智造"托举起"大国重器"。前不久，宁德核电鼓网主轴防腐作业现 场来了一台"磁吸式爬行机器人"装置，实现了"遥控打磨+自动喷涂"一键搞定，无需脚手架即可精准修 复涂层破损。 这台爬行自如的机器人来自山东尚核电力科技有限公司。作为一家专业为核电站"护肤"的企业，尚 核电力不断将数字化、智能化引入生产和施工场景，实现了质量、效率双提升。目前，公司在海洋防腐 工程、各类管道制造和安装等领域均已达到国内领先水平，服务范围覆盖全国100多台核电机组。 数字化转型的深度，决定着制造业的高度。尚核电力的质效优势，背后是济宁数字产业化"十大工 程"和产业数字化"八大行动"的强力支撑：当地构建"项目—企业—产业"数字经济发展体系，规上企业 数字化转型率达92.7%。12家国家级5 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that AI infrastructure will profoundly reshape the demand landscape in related industries, with AI applications set to materialize, thereby boosting hardware manufacturing equipment demand [1][2] - In 2025, the ZX machinery industry index rose by 40.91%, significantly outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 17.66%, indicating a 23.25 percentage point lead for the machinery sector [1] - The machinery index accelerated its rise starting in April, driven by technology equipment such as robots, and is expected to continue this upward trend in 2026 as technology manufacturing flourishes and mature manufacturing expands globally [1] Group 2 - AI technology has shown strong potential in the current technological revolution, evolving rapidly since the introduction of attention mechanisms by Google in 2017 and the release of ChatGPT by OpenAI in 2022 [2] - The construction of AI computing power centers by global tech giants is driving significant demand for components like optical modules, storage and computing chips, and power supplies, leading to industry-wide expansion and technological upgrades [3] - AI computing power centers are also major electricity consumers, increasing the demand for various types of power generation and distribution equipment, with some of this demand already gaining market attention in 2025 and expected to translate into orders and revenue in 2026 [3] Group 3 - The application of embodied intelligence is crucial for the realization of AI technology, with AI hardware such as robots and smart glasses nearing practical application [4] - In 2026, Tesla's robots are expected to enter mass production at a scale of thousands, with global humanoid robot production projected to exceed 100,000 units, marking a significant milestone in mass production [4] - Major companies like Google, META, OpenAI, and Apple plan to release AI glasses in 2026, potentially leading to a competitive landscape in the 3C device market and driving demand for related components [4] Group 4 - Chinese manufacturing continues to enhance its product strength, becoming synonymous with "high quality and low price," with China's share of global goods exports reaching approximately 15% in recent years [5] - The overall global trade environment is expected to stabilize in 2026, with anticipated interest rate cuts in the U.S. likely to boost demand in both the U.S. and emerging markets, supporting growth in manufacturing exports [5] - The engineering machinery sector has made significant inroads into overseas markets in recent years, with expectations for continued market share growth in 2026 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic market is recovering, and Liugong (000528.SZ), a well-known company in the construction machinery industry, continues to show growth in its operating performance, with expected net profit exceeding 1.5 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of over 15% [1] Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, Liugong anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 1.526 billion to 1.659 billion yuan, an increase of 199 million to 332 million yuan compared to the previous year, translating to a growth rate of 15% to 25% [4] - The company expects a non-net profit of about 1.323 billion to 1.455 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 185 million to 317 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 16% to 28% [4] - In the first three quarters of 2025, Liugong reported operating revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of 25.760 billion yuan and 1.458 billion yuan, respectively, marking year-on-year growth of 12.71% and 14.58% [4] - The company has achieved continuous growth in revenue and net profit for three consecutive years, with 2023 and 2024 revenues of 27.519 billion yuan and 30.069 billion yuan, respectively, showing growth rates of 3.93% and 9.24% [6][5] Market Position and Strategy - Liugong ranks as the 18th largest construction machinery manufacturer globally, supported by its strong market position and technological advancements [1] - The company focuses on five key technological areas: internationalization, large-scale production, electrification, intelligence, and digitalization [1] - Liugong's strategic new businesses have become a second growth curve, emphasizing green, intelligent, and international solutions, including large-scale and electric mining solutions [9] Research and Development - Liugong's R&D investments for 2023 and 2024 are projected to be 1.047 billion yuan and 1.141 billion yuan, respectively, with a 2025 investment of 936 million yuan in the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.35% [2][10] - The company has established a balanced development in domestic and international markets, with overseas revenue accounting for 46.88% in the first half of 2025 [3][10] Product and Business Diversification - Liugong has evolved from a traditional equipment manufacturer to a provider of smart and green equipment and technology solutions, with a diverse product line that includes over 30 complete machine product lines and various key components [8][9] - The company has a significant historical background, having developed China's first wheel loader and achieved notable sales milestones in the industry [8]

智能制造的"数字引擎"，让济宁"智造"托举起"大国重器"。前不久，宁德核电鼓网主轴防腐作业现 场来了一台"磁吸式爬行机器人"装置，实现了"遥控打磨+自动喷涂"一键搞定，无需脚手架即可精准修 复涂层破损。 智慧、智能、智聚三条"智链"拉动制造业提档升级 济宁"智造"托举"大国重器" 飞驰的高铁动车组如何稳稳刹停？核电站海水管道怎样实现数十年抗腐？推土机如何会思考能决 策？这些"大国重器"平稳运行的密码，藏在济宁制造业的"智造"基因里。当地以智慧、智能、智聚三 条"智链"为牵引，用一个个硬核配套案例，挺起了先进制造业的脊梁。 科技创新的"智慧内核"，是济宁"智造"叩开"大国重器"大门的密钥。汶上海纬机车配件有限公司的 智能化车间里，生产热潮驱散了冬日的寒冷，超1600℃高温淬炼的特殊材料历经20多道工序，蜕变为一 片片锃亮的高铁制动盘。 "高铁运行不是光看能不能跑起来，还要看能不能停得住、停得稳、停得准。"公司副总李社星介 绍，我国新一代高速列车复兴号CR450动车组列车运行时速将提升到400公里，而制动距离却要求与 CR400时速350公里时的6500米标准持平。公司研发团队历时半年攻关，通过创新铸造配方与热处 ...

Core Insights - Hunan's engineering machinery exports are projected to reach 34.68 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.6% [1] Trade Overview - General trade exports account for 26.17 billion RMB, representing 75.5% of total exports - Bonded logistics exports surged to 3.79 billion RMB, marking a significant increase of 141.5% [1] Market Performance - Exports to Africa increased by 75.9%, while exports to West Asia and Southeast Asia grew by 23.7% and 25.9% respectively, indicating strong demand from emerging markets - Exports to Russia and the EU remained stable [1] Product Breakdown - Special purpose vehicles constituted 33.1% of exports, totaling 11.46 billion RMB - Exports of bulldozers, excavators, and road rollers reached 8.19 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 30.5% - Crane exports amounted to 4.86 billion RMB, showing a growth of 7% [1] Strategic Opportunities - The closure of Hainan Free Trade Port presents opportunities for Hunan's engineering machinery exports - Hunan enterprises can establish international procurement and global maintenance centers in Hainan, benefiting from "zero tariff" policies - Estimated savings of over 30,000 RMB per equipment unit in tariffs and freight costs are possible - Hunan companies can leverage Hainan as a processing and trading base to enhance overall competitiveness through policy advantages [1]

Group 1 - The company plans to issue RMB 60 billion convertible bonds maturing in 2031 based on special authorization [1] - The bonds will be issued at a fixed exchange rate, approximately equivalent to HKD 67.452 billion [1] - The underwriters have agreed to subscribe to the bonds under specific terms outlined in the subscription agreement [1] Group 2 - The convertible bonds can be converted into H-shares at an initial conversion price of HKD 10.02 per share [2] - If fully converted, the bonds will result in approximately 673,188,000 H-shares, representing about 43.36% of the company's issued H-shares as of the announcement date [2] - After full conversion, the newly issued shares will account for 30.25% of the enlarged total issued H-shares [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market saw most major indices rise last week, with the STAR 50 index increasing by 4.92%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.59% [3] - As of January 27, the margin trading balance in the two markets reached 27,144.35 billion, an increase of 140.53 billion from the previous week [3] - The average number of investors participating in margin trading decreased by 5.17% to 570,815 [3] Group 2: Industry Insights - The non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, and telecommunications sectors had significant net buying in margin trading, while the automotive, media, and defense industries saw less [4] - The ETF margin balance was 1,142.77 billion, a decrease of 9.40 billion from January 20, while the margin balance for individual stocks showed notable net buying for companies like China Ping An and Zijin Mining [4] Group 3: Mechanical Equipment Industry - The tower crane utilization rate was reported at 55.1% in December 2025, and profits for large industrial enterprises grew by 0.6% [6] - Companies like Jiechang Drive and Aiko Optoelectronics forecasted significant profit increases, with Jiechang expecting a 40% to 55% rise and Aiko projecting a 262.52% to 345.20% increase [6] - The machinery sector outperformed the broader market, with a 2.03% increase in the machinery equipment index compared to a 0.28% decline in the CSI 300 index [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The engineering machinery sector is expected to continue its recovery, with excavator sales projected to reach 235,300 units in 2025, a 17% year-on-year increase [7] - The humanoid robot sector remains vibrant, with significant production and sales expected, particularly with the upcoming release of Tesla's Optimus 3 [7] - The report maintains a "positive" outlook for the machinery industry and recommends a "buy" rating for companies like Zoomlion and Hengli Hydraulic [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Viewpoints - The company focuses on the tunnel construction and mining equipment sector, emphasizing research, design, production, sales, and service across various markets including railways, highways, and hydropower [5][12] - The company has achieved self-research and industrialization of full-process equipment for the drilling and blasting method, which is widely used in the market [12][17] - The company is actively expanding into new growth areas such as hydropower and mining, which are expected to become key growth drivers [6][7] Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Business Overview - The company has a clear focus on tunnel intelligent equipment, with a robust governance structure supporting healthy cash flow [5][11] - It has developed a comprehensive product matrix that includes various types of equipment tailored for tunnel and mining construction [12][17] 2. Market Opportunities - The tunnel construction industry is rooted in traditional infrastructure, with ongoing demand driven by high-speed rail and urbanization [5][6] - The company is expanding its market presence in hydropower and mining, which are expected to provide significant growth opportunities [6][7] 3. Financial Performance - The company's revenue reached a historical high of 9.54 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 76.34% [33] - In 2024, revenue is projected to decline to 7.99 billion yuan due to funding pressures in the highway sector, leading to reduced equipment procurement [5][33] - The company maintains a strong cash flow, with cash reserves increasing from 0.52 billion yuan in 2020 to 2.68 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 25.54% [5][33] 4. Strategic Developments - The company is undergoing significant asset restructuring, which has been approved by regulatory authorities, aimed at enhancing performance and creating synergies [7][8] - The acquisition of related companies is expected to significantly boost earnings and establish a second growth curve in high-end port logistics equipment manufacturing [7][8] 5. Customer Base - The company primarily serves large state-owned enterprises and top domestic construction and mining groups, with a growing focus on international markets due to the Belt and Road Initiative [22][25] - Major clients include China Railway, China Communications Construction, and China State Construction, contributing significantly to the company's revenue [22][25]

香港联交所最新数据显示，1月22日，小摩减持三一重工（06031）28万股，每股作价24.0119港元，总 金额约为672.33万港元。减持后最新持股数目约为7909.12万股，最新持股比例为10.97%。 责任编辑：卢昱君 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 责任编辑：卢昱君 香港联交所最新数据显示，1月22日，小摩减持三一重工（06031）28万股，每股作价24.0119港元，总 金额约为672.33万港元。减持后最新持股数目约为7909.12万股，最新持股比例为10.97%。 ...