Group 1: Industry Overview - Excavator sales in September reached 19,858 units, a year-on-year increase of 25.4%, with domestic sales at 9,249 units (up 21.5%) and exports at 10,609 units (up 29.0) [1][2] - Loader sales in September totaled 10,530 units, showing a year-on-year growth of 30.5%, with domestic sales at 5,051 units (up 25.58%) and exports at 5,479 units (up 35.3%) [1][2] - Sales of truck cranes in September were 1,561 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.9%, indicating a positive growth trend in the construction machinery sector [1][2] Group 2: Robotics and Technology - The domestic humanoid robot industry is advancing, with Zhiyuan launching the G2 robot, which features high-performance joints and multi-modal voice interaction capabilities, suitable for various industrial applications [2] - Zhiyuan has signed a procurement contract worth over 100 million yuan with Junsheng Electronics for the initial delivery of the G2 robot [2] Group 3: Company Highlights - Riheng Technology, a leading supplier of industrial X-ray intelligent detection equipment, reported a nearly doubled order growth and a revenue increase of 38.34% year-on-year, with net profit rising by 7.8% [2] - Kangst, engaged in digital detection instruments, showed a positive Q3 performance with revenue and net profit growth of 22.24% and 30.66% respectively, demonstrating resilience under tariff pressures [3][4] - Newray's revenue and net profit increased by 28.97% and 2.88% respectively, with a stable business growth outlook and improving profitability expected [5]

分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 2025 年 10 月 27 日 晨会速递 【宏观】坚持高质量发展，续写奇迹新篇章——二十届四中全会公报精神学习暨《"十 五五"规划》系列报告二 本次公报进一步强化了"产业科技+提振内需"的双政策主线，与当前高质量发展基 调一脉相承，体现了中央久久为功、持续推动经济转型升级的战略定力。相比十九届 五中全会公报，现代产业体系建设从第二位调整为第一位，表明下一阶段更看重科技 创新如何与产业发展融合；高水平对外开放从第九位调整为第五位，指向在大国博弈 的惊涛骇浪中，势必要以开放的主动赢得发展的主动。 【宏观】美国通胀不及预期，为降息铺平道路——2025 年 9 月美国 CPI 数据点评 9 月美国通胀数据表现温和，不及市场预期，降低了美联储在数据真空期的"盲飞" 风险。结构看，通胀不及预期主要受住房、二手车和卡车价格回落影响，而关税的传 导仍在持续，如家电、家具、服装等价格环比涨幅较上月均有所扩大。整体来看，因 企业部门吸收了部分关税成本叠加服务业通胀放缓，使得整体通胀上行相对温和，为 后续美联储降息铺平道路，市场已提前锁定年内两次降息空间。 【策略】多重利好叠加，市场或持续强势表现 ...

A-shares - The average return of private equity macro strategies has reached 24.54% year-to-date as of October 16, significantly higher than the expected average return of 8.21% for the entire year of 2024 [2] - As of October 23, 20 listed companies have seen brokerages among their top ten circulating shareholders, with a total holding value of nearly 5 billion yuan [3] - Over 600 listed companies in A-shares have distributed more than 300 billion yuan in cash dividends for the first half of the year, with an additional 300 billion yuan in dividends pending [4] - By October 22, 43 stocks have been identified as held by the social security fund, with a total market value exceeding 15.5 billion yuan [4] Financial Management - The global trading volume of the renminbi has surged to 817 billion USD daily, accounting for 8.5% of the global foreign exchange market, with the gap between the renminbi and the pound narrowing [5] - As of October 22, 17 listed brokerages have announced mid-year dividends totaling 7.949 billion yuan [6] - The number of private equity firms with over 10 billion yuan in assets has surpassed 100, with four new additions since the end of September [6] Economic Indicators - In September, the total electricity consumption in China reached 888.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [8] - Shanghai's GDP for the first three quarters reached 4.072 trillion yuan, growing by 5.5% year-on-year, surpassing the national growth rate of 5.2% [8] - In September, China's automobile exports reached 652,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 6.7% and a year-on-year increase of 21% [8] - The engineering machinery import and export trade amounted to 5.505 billion USD in September, with exports growing by 29.6% year-on-year [9] - Domestic tourism saw 4.998 billion trips taken by residents in the first three quarters, an increase of 18% compared to the previous year [9]

Core Viewpoint - The overall sentiment among brokerage strategy analysts is optimistic about the market outlook, with a particular focus on the technology sector as a main investment theme [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends and Drivers - The upcoming trade negotiations between China and the U.S., along with expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, are expected to strengthen the technology growth trend [1][2]. - The market has shifted back to a performance-driven structure, with two emerging themes: supply chain security and the expansion of AI from cloud to edge computing [1][3]. - The "Fifteen Five" plan marks a strategic shift from a defensive to an offensive approach, emphasizing proactive economic development and high-level technological self-reliance [1][3][4]. Group 2: Sector Focus and Investment Opportunities - The technology sector remains a long-term focus, with significant attention on AI and its applications, particularly as major tech companies prepare to release earnings reports [2][3]. - Analysts highlight the potential for manufacturing companies to benefit from China's competitive advantages and the high costs of resetting overseas production capacities [1][3]. - The "Fifteen Five" plan is expected to enhance the strategic position of technology development, creating new opportunities for investment in sectors such as AI, quantum technology, and advanced manufacturing [4][5]. Group 3: Policy Implications - The recent policy statements from the Fourth Plenary Session are seen as reducing the likelihood of contractionary policies, which could support a bull market extending into 2026 [1][4]. - The focus on domestic consumption and supply chain security is expected to lead to more structured and sustained consumption stimulus policies [4][5]. - The overall policy environment is perceived as favorable for the A-share market, particularly in technology, manufacturing, and consumer sectors [4][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the machinery equipment industry is "Positive" [2] Core Views - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing a continuous recovery, with significant growth in excavator sales, which reached 19,858 units in September, a year-on-year increase of 25.4% [12][62] - The domestic humanoid robot industry is advancing towards commercialization, highlighted by the launch of the ZhiYuan G2 robot, which has secured over 100 million yuan in procurement contracts [12][55] - The report suggests focusing on the growth trajectories of engineering machinery, humanoid robots, and PCB equipment, while also monitoring the performance of process industries and tool sectors as quarterly reports are released [12][13][57] Summary by Sections Company Updates - **Rili Technology**: The company, a leading supplier of industrial X-ray intelligent detection equipment, saw new orders nearly double year-on-year, with revenue increasing by 38.34% and net profit rising by 7.8% [3][13] - **Kangst**: The company specializes in digital detection instruments and reported a significant recovery in Q3, with revenue, net profit, and non-recurring net profit increasing by 22.24%, 30.66%, and 36.2% respectively [4][14] - **Xinxin Co.**: The company, which produces hard alloys and tools, experienced revenue growth of 28.97% and net profit growth of 2.88% in the first half of the year [5][15] Industry Performance - In September, excavator sales reached 19,858 units, with domestic sales at 9,249 units and exports at 10,609 units, reflecting strong growth across the board [12][62] - The loader sales in September were 10,530 units, marking a 30.5% year-on-year increase, while the sales of automotive cranes also turned positive with a 21.9% increase [12][72] - The industrial robot sector saw a production increase of 28.3% in September, with a cumulative production of 594,816 units in the first nine months of the year, indicating robust growth in the market [48][49] Market Trends - The manufacturing PMI for September was reported at 49.8%, showing a slight recovery, with production and new orders indices also improving [25] - The report highlights the ongoing policy support for the machine tool industry, which is expected to enhance domestic production capabilities and drive growth in high-end machine tools [29][37] - The logistics sector is also showing resilience, with forklift sales in September reaching 130,380 units, a 23% increase year-on-year, supported by a favorable logistics index [38][42]

Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the market is currently in a consolidation phase, with a need for confirmation signals to return to an upward trend [2][4][9] - The macroeconomic environment remains uncertain due to ongoing US-China trade tensions and upcoming Federal Reserve meetings, which may suppress market risk appetite [2][4][10] - The overall market (WIND All A Index) experienced a weekly increase of 3.47%, with small-cap stocks (CSI 2000) rising by 3.75% and mid-cap stocks (CSI 500) by 3.46% [10][11] Market Timing System - The distance between the 20-day moving average (MA) and the 120-day MA has narrowed, with the 20-day MA at 6264 points and the closing price at 6320 points, indicating a need for the 5-day MA to rise above the 20-day MA for confirmation [2][11][18] - The current market is characterized by a consolidation pattern, with risk preference being a key observation indicator [2][4][11] Industry Configuration - The industry trend configuration model shows that storage chips and construction machinery are still in an upward trend, while sectors benefiting from policy support include real estate and photovoltaics [3][12][18] - The TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on domestic computing power and gaming [3][12][18] Valuation Indicators - The overall PE ratio of the WIND All A Index is around the 85th percentile, while the PB ratio is at the 50th percentile, indicating a moderate valuation level [3][12] - Based on short-term trend assessments, the report suggests maintaining a 60% allocation in absolute return products based on the WIND All A Index [3][12]

Group 1 - Global capital is hesitant, indicating a "noise" before a major market rebound, with A-shares returning to a defensive style focused on dividends and micro-cap stocks [1][10] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has shifted its strategic focus from "technological innovation" to "supply chain enhancement," ensuring supply chain security and high-end manufacturing autonomy [2][18] - The emphasis on domestic consumption has upgraded from "comprehensive promotion of consumption" to "strongly boosting consumption," reflecting a stronger policy commitment [2][18] Group 2 - Cross-border capital is significantly returning, which is a crucial material guarantee for the "15th Five-Year Plan" strategy and the macro engine for China's asset revival [3][20] - The return of cross-border capital is expected to fundamentally improve cash flow for enterprises and households, providing a material basis for boosting consumption and supporting manufacturing [3][20] Group 3 - China is adopting a steady path, focusing on solidifying competitive advantages through capital expenditure expansion and policy adjustments, while the U.S. faces challenges due to premature and excessive investment in AI infrastructure [4][23] - The U.S. is experiencing a "Ponzi-like" dilemma, where high unit costs of AI infrastructure hinder commercialization, potentially leading to a significant economic crisis [4][23] Group 4 - The report suggests a strategic layout for the "golden era" of Chinese assets, emphasizing a combination of sectors that are expected to reach new highs, including non-ferrous metals, new consumption, and high-end manufacturing [5][26] - The anticipated "ice-fire conversion" moment for manufacturing and consumption assets is supported by the return of cross-border capital and the strategic shift in the "15th Five-Year Plan" [5][26]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the machinery equipment sector, with specific recommendations for stocks such as XCMG, Hengli Hydraulic, SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and YTO Group [10]. Core Insights - The machinery equipment index rose by 4.71% in the last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 3.24% [13][15]. - Year-to-date, the machinery equipment index has increased by 35.02%, ranking fifth among 31 primary industry categories [15]. - The report highlights a significant increase in engineering machinery exports, with a total of $43.855 billion from January to September 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 13.3% [4][23]. - The report emphasizes the potential growth in quantum computing and controllable nuclear fusion as new economic growth points, supported by top-level policy and funding [4][23]. - Tesla's humanoid robot production plans are seen as a strategic opportunity for the robotics sector, with expectations for significant commercialization by 2026 [4][23]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW Machinery Equipment Index increased by 4.71% last week, ranking fourth among 31 primary industry categories [13][15]. - Year-to-date performance shows a 35.02% increase in the SW Machinery Equipment Index, compared to an 18.44% increase in the CSI 300 Index [15]. Key Data Tracking General Machinery - The general machinery sector continues to face pressure, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.8% in September, indicating contraction [22]. - Forklift sales in September reached 130,380 units, a year-on-year increase of 23% [22]. Engineering Machinery - In September, total excavator sales reached 19,858 units, a year-on-year increase of 25.4%, with both domestic and international sales showing strong growth [31]. Railway Equipment - The railway equipment sector is experiencing steady growth, with fixed asset investment in railways maintaining a growth rate of around 6% [42]. Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding sector is seeing a slowdown in price declines, with the global new ship price index at 185.58 as of September 2025 [44]. Oilfield Equipment - The oilfield equipment sector is stabilizing at the bottom, with an increase in global rig counts and expected growth in oil and gas extraction demand [46]. Industrial Gases - A decrease in raw material prices is expected to improve profitability in the steel sector, which may boost demand for industrial gases [50]. Gas Turbines - The gas turbine sector is showing robust growth, with GEV reporting a 39% year-on-year increase in new gas turbine orders in the first three quarters of 2025 [52].

Core Viewpoint - This week, seven companies submitted listing applications to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with three companies passing the hearing, five companies conducting IPOs, and three new stocks being listed [1]. Group 1: Companies Submitting Listing Applications - Guangdong Jintian Animation Co., Ltd. submitted a listing application on October 20, focusing on the IP fun food industry with a projected revenue of approximately RMB 5.96 billion in 2022, growing to RMB 8.77 billion by 2024 [2]. - Yuwang Biological Nutrition Co., Ltd. is the largest supplier of food-grade refined fish oil globally, with a market share of 8.1% and projected revenues of RMB 5.34 billion in 2022, increasing to RMB 8.32 billion by 2024 [3]. - Binhua Group Co., Ltd. is a leader in the chlor-alkali chemical industry, with revenues of RMB 88.92 billion in 2022, expected to reach RMB 102.28 billion by 2024 [4]. - Xichang Zhihui Mining Co., Ltd. focuses on mining zinc, lead, and copper in Tibet, with revenues of RMB 4.82 billion in 2022, projected to decline to RMB 3.01 billion by 2024 [5]. - Zhongwei Co., Ltd. specializes in new energy battery materials, with total revenues of RMB 303.44 billion in 2022, expected to grow to RMB 402.23 billion by 2024 [6]. - Hehui Optoelectronics Co., Ltd. is a leading AMOLED semiconductor display panel manufacturer, with revenues of RMB 41.91 billion in 2022, projected to reach RMB 49.58 billion by 2024 [7]. Group 2: Companies Passing Hearing - Suzhou Wangshan Wangshui Biomedical Co., Ltd. focuses on small molecule drug development, with revenues of RMB 2 billion in 2022, declining to RMB 322.4 million by 2024 [8]. - Guangdong Tianyu Semiconductor Co., Ltd. is the largest silicon carbide epitaxial wafer manufacturer in China, with revenues of RMB 4.37 billion in 2022, expected to grow to RMB 11.71 billion by 2023 [9]. - Baile Tianheng is a biopharmaceutical company focusing on tumor treatment, with revenues of RMB 7.02 billion in 2022, projected to reach RMB 58.21 billion by 2024 [10]. Group 3: Companies Conducting IPOs - Sany Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. had an oversubscription of 53 times, raising approximately HKD 663 billion (USD 85 billion) [11]. - Dippu Technology Co., Ltd. had an oversubscription of 7590 times, raising HKD 2,721 billion, making it the second-highest oversubscription in history [12]. - Cambridge Technology Co., Ltd. set its final price at HKD 68.88 per share, with significant backing from cornerstone investors [13]. - Bama Tea Co., Ltd. attracted approximately 169,000 subscription applications, with an oversubscription of 2684 times [14]. - Minglue Technology Co., Ltd. plans to issue 721.9 million A shares, with a proposed price of HKD 141.00 per share [15]. Group 4: Newly Listed Stocks - Haixi New Drug Co., Ltd. saw a first-day increase of 20.60%, with a total increase of 26.74% in the first week [15]. - Jushuitan Co., Ltd. had a first-day increase of 23.86%, but saw a decline in the following days, ending the week with a 13.92% increase [16]. - Guanghe Tong Co., Ltd. experienced a first-day drop of 11.72%, with a total decline of 9.44% in the first week [17].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company reported a year-on-year increase of 36% in non-recurring performance for the first three quarters of 2025, with a successful issuance of targeted convertible bonds enhancing its competitiveness [7] - The revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 reached 506 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 95 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.18% and 26.13% respectively [7] - The company has successfully expanded its overseas market presence, contributing to revenue structure optimization and benefiting from the steady recovery of the engineering machinery industry [7] - The successful issuance of targeted convertible bonds raised 150 million yuan, strategically introducing industry partners to enhance competitiveness [7] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, total revenue is projected at 668.54 million yuan, with a net profit of 79.35 million yuan, and an EPS of 0.67 yuan per share [1] - The company expects total revenue to grow to 740.12 million yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 144.08 million yuan, resulting in an EPS of 1.22 yuan [1] - The sales gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 improved to 30.36%, with a net profit margin of 18.83% [7] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities for Q1-Q3 2025 increased by 12.09% year-on-year, reaching 104 million yuan [7]