"反内卷式竞争"的投资机会 20250702 摘要 反内卷政策升级，人民日报等媒体密集发文，预示行业协会将密集发文 控价控产能，主要集中在新能源车和光伏行业，可能引发市场预期波动， 影响相关公司股价和大宗商品价格。 大宗商品价格下跌源于需求侧居民收入和地产下滑。传统行业经过前期 去产能和企业整合，供给侧大幅出清空间有限，本轮周期股反弹更多源 于市场内生需求，而非供给侧改革。 新能源车和光伏领域是反内卷政策重点，政府鼓励民营企业信心。未来 或通过控制价格实现红利，但难以复制 2015-2016 年供给侧改革驱动 的大宗商品牛市。 钢铁行业：限产政策短期影响有限，但制造业需求超预期增长，成本端 双胶价格下跌提升钢厂利润。关注电炉减产及低位库存对钢铁价格和利 润的推动作用，预计 7-8 月钢铁股将有一波反弹行情。 水泥行业：协会推动供给侧改革，要求企业严格按照设计产能生产，有 望提升标的配置性价比。今年企业具备底线思维，避免激烈价格战，确 保行业微盈利，但需求淡季和错峰执行力度不足构成不利因素。 Q&A 如何理解中央财经委关于建设全国统一大市场的政策？ 中央财经委近期强调建设全国统一大市场，旨在依法依规治理企业低价 ...

Group 1: Internet of Things (IoT) - The establishment of the IoT Standardization Technical Committee is a significant step to accelerate the development of IoT in China, aiming to create a robust standard system and enhance international competitiveness [1] - The global IoT market is projected to exceed $2.1 trillion by 2025, with China contributing over 35%, becoming the largest single market [1] - The transition from "connecting everything" to "intelligent connectivity" is driven by technological integration and policy support, with an expected annual growth rate of over 20% in the coming years [1] Group 2: DRAM Market - The NAND Flash market price index has increased by 9.2% and the DRAM market price index by 47.7% since the beginning of 2025, with a notable 19.5% increase in June alone [2] - A significant shift from oversupply to undersupply in traditional DRAM products is anticipated due to AI-driven demand and supply strategies [2] - The global DRAM market is expected to reach a historical high in 2025, driven by demand from AI and cloud computing [2] Group 3: Photovoltaics - In the first five months of 2025, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity reached approximately 198 GW, with May alone contributing 93 GW [3] - The industry is expected to see improvements in supply and demand dynamics, supported by favorable policies and technological advancements [3] Group 4: Computing Power - The computing power industry is characterized by its large scale and growth potential, with significant performance elasticity expected in chips and AI servers by 2025 [4] - Domestic chip manufacturers are likely to benefit from economic shifts and supply chain considerations [4] Group 5: Innovative Pharmaceuticals - Recent measures from the National Healthcare Security Administration support the inclusion of innovative drugs in basic medical insurance and commercial health insurance directories [5] - The innovative drug sector in China is gaining international recognition, indicating strong growth potential [5] Group 6: Nuclear Fusion - Alphabet has signed an agreement to purchase 200 MW of power from a fusion energy project, marking a milestone in commercial nuclear fusion energy [6] - The upcoming 2025 China International Nuclear Fusion and Nuclear Energy Industry Conference is expected to showcase advancements in nuclear energy [6] Group 7: Cement Industry - The China Cement Association has issued guidelines to promote high-quality development and stabilize growth in the cement industry [7] - The industry is currently facing profitability challenges, with a shift in focus from market share to restoring profitability [7] Group 8: Rare Earths - The reduction in rare earth exports from China has led to increased prices in international markets, with automotive manufacturers willing to pay a premium for supplies outside China [8] - Rare earth materials are critical for various industries, particularly in electric vehicle manufacturing [8]

Group 1 - The central government emphasizes the need to advance the construction of a unified national market, focusing on addressing key challenges and regulating low-price disorderly competition among enterprises to enhance product quality and facilitate the orderly exit of outdated capacity [1] - The "involution" competition in various industries is primarily characterized by low-price disorderly competition, driven by complex factors such as economic structural adjustments and excessive investment in emerging industries like photovoltaics and new energy vehicles [1][2] - The implementation of a series of policies to promote consumption and investment has stabilized the economy, but low price levels persist, as evidenced by a 6.5% increase in total retail sales since the launch of the old-for-new consumption initiative, while the CPI remains low [1] Group 2 - In May, the PPI decreased by 3.3%, and the accounts receivable of large industrial enterprises reached 26.4 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 9.0%, indicating a slowdown in the industrial supply-demand cycle and a decline in enterprise profits by 9.1% [2] - To address the supply-demand imbalance, it is necessary to regulate low-price disorderly competition and promote the orderly exit of outdated capacity, while also implementing production restrictions in industries with significant supply-demand issues [2] - The need for improved government behavior is highlighted, as local government policies have stimulated redundant investments and hindered the exit of outdated capacity, necessitating the establishment of a high-quality development assessment system [2][3] Group 3 - The persistence of "involution" competition is attributed to the failure of substandard products and bankrupt enterprises to exit the market promptly, leading to safety and quality standards being compromised [3] - There is a call for enhanced market supervision to prevent the proliferation of counterfeit and inferior products, particularly in the e-commerce sector, where platforms often evade responsibility for product quality [3] - The need to improve the enterprise exit system is emphasized, including the establishment of a bankruptcy mechanism and reforms to facilitate enterprise deregistration, which would help eliminate unreasonable competition [3]

今天的体感普遍不太好，两市超3200家个股下跌，成交额缩到了1.37万亿，比昨天少了快近千亿。资金 方面机构继续扫货，净流入200亿，但主力加散户跑了500亿左右，说明很多人看到反弹就想着落袋为安 了，那情绪还是偏谨慎的。和讯投顾吴嘉仪分析，大盘这一块看似踩着5日线准备去冲关，但就是没有 冲上去，反而停在了关键的位置。那接下来这一两天大概率是要选择方向的，到底是直接挑战3500点， 还是说回踩20日线再蓄势上攻，呢别急，我们等信号明确再说。那板块方面今天涨的好的是深海经济、 钢铁、水泥、光伏和部分合成生物方向，我们一个一个来讲清楚。 （原标题：和讯投顾吴嘉仪：大盘缩量机构继续扫货，明天是去是留？） 来首先是我们的深海经济，其实之前就已经炒过了，现在高层再度强调可见重视的一个程度，啊那这其 实也是军工的一个延伸逻辑。我之前在视频里也跟大家去说过，军工的细分啊特别的多，海陆空都有机 会，那今年大涨的基本是海洋的装备类，比如船舶制造、海上风电捕捞设备这一些方向，而光伏加水泥 加钢铁这三块大涨的背后有一个共同的逻辑，就是控产能稳增长，反内卷那6月底人民日报发文是破除 内卷式的一个竞争，重点点名了光伏还有新能源汽车。7 ...

Group 1: Coal Industry - In June 2025, coal prices are lower than the same period last year, leading to a forecast of a year-on-year decline in industry profits for July 2025, maintaining a neutral outlook for the coal industry [3]. Group 2: Livestock Farming - As of the end of May 2025, the number of breeding sows is 40.42 million, showing a slight month-on-month increase. It is predicted that the supply and demand for pigs will balance in Q4 2025, with pork prices expected to stabilize at the bottom while waiting for a significant reduction in production capacity [4]. Group 3: Steel Industry - A forecast for June 2025 indicates a year-on-year negative growth in profits for the general steel industry. The rolling average of PMI has not exceeded the threshold, maintaining a neutral signal for the steel industry [5]. Group 4: Construction Materials and Engineering - In June 2025, the gross profit of float glass is expected to decline year-on-year, maintaining a neutral signal for the glass industry. The cement industry is predicted to see year-on-year profit growth in June 2025, awaiting positive signals from new housing starts, also maintaining a neutral outlook for the cement industry [5]. - The manufacturing PMI rolling average is stabilizing, while year-on-year data for commercial housing sales shows a slight decline. Economic data remains stable, and expectations for infrastructure support are unlikely to materialize, maintaining a neutral signal for the construction and decoration industry [5]. Group 5: Fuel Refining and Oil Services - A forecast for June 2025 suggests that profits in the fuel refining industry will remain roughly flat year-on-year, maintaining a neutral outlook. Oil prices have not yet formed an upward trend year-on-year, and new drilling activities are also stable year-on-year, leading to a neutral outlook for oil services [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [13] Core Viewpoints - The upgrade of AI special glass fiber is accelerating, with a focus on the volume increase of high-end products [6][10] - Cement prices continue to decline, while glass inventory has decreased month-on-month [8][9] - Recommended investment in domestic substitution chains and African chains, with existing leading companies as the main line for the year [10] Summary by Relevant Sections Cement Market - In late June, the average shipping rate of national cement enterprises was 43%, down approximately 0.8 percentage points month-on-month and 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The national average cement price decreased by 1.0% month-on-month, with most regions experiencing price declines [8][26] - The national cement average price was 357.74 yuan/ton, down 3.71 yuan/ton month-on-month and down 37.90 yuan/ton year-on-year [26] Glass Market - The domestic float glass market saw a slight improvement in transactions, but prices remained stable [9] - The total inventory of monitored provinces was 59 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.52 million weight boxes, with a decline of 2.51% [38][39] - The national average glass price was 69.17 yuan/weight box, down 0.81 yuan/weight box month-on-month and down 18.17 yuan/weight box year-on-year [39] Special Glass Fiber - China National Materials Technology is a leading domestic supplier of special glass fiber, benefiting from the upgrade trend [7] - The company is expected to achieve a monthly production capacity of 6 million meters by the end of 2026, with a projected performance of approximately 3.8 billion yuan in 2025-2026 [7] - The upgrade from M8 to M9 in copper-clad laminates is expected to drive the scale increase of high-end products [6] Recommended Companies - Recommended companies include China National Materials Technology, Meijia Xincai, and Punaite Co., Ltd. for domestic substitution [10] - Keda Manufacturing is recommended for the African chain, benefiting from local market advantages [10] - The report also highlights the potential of Sanhe Tree and Rabbit Baby in the existing stock chain [10]

Group 1 - The cement sector experienced a surge, with Fujian Cement (600802) hitting the daily limit up [1] - Other companies such as Sichuan Shuangma (000935), Wanyanqing (000789), Conch Cement (600585), Shangfeng Cement (000672), and Jinyu Group (601992) also saw increases in their stock prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The cement sector in Hong Kong, particularly Western Cement, has experienced significant stock price increases, driven by asset sales and positive market expectations regarding overseas expansion and performance recovery [1][2][5]. Group 1: Company Developments - Western Cement's stock surged over 17% on June 26, with a cumulative increase of 25.75% since June 20, and trading volume exceeding 300 million at peak [1]. - The company announced plans to sell its assets in Xinjiang, with proceeds aimed at repaying part of its issued preferred notes and supporting expansion projects, particularly in Africa [1][5]. - The recent signing of a peace agreement between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to positively impact Western Cement's operations in the region, where it has significant production capacity [2]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The cement industry is showing signs of recovery in Q1 2025, with a trend of "reduced volume, increased price, and improved profits" following a downturn in 2024 [3]. - National cement production in Q1 2025 was 331 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%, but March saw a 2.5% increase compared to the previous year [3]. - The average market price for cement in Q1 2025 was 397 RMB/ton, up 9.3% from the previous year, indicating improved pricing power in the industry [3][5]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Several cement companies reported improved financial results in Q1 2025, with Western Cement expected to show performance recovery in the upcoming interim report [5]. - The company's overseas business significantly contributed to its profitability, with overseas revenue accounting for 38% of total revenue and contributing 67% to gross profit margin in 2024 [8]. - Despite the positive outlook, Western Cement's debt levels are concerning, with total liabilities reaching 22.47 billion RMB and an increase in the debt-to-asset ratio from 60.4% to 65.3% [9][10]. Group 4: Market Opportunities - The African market presents substantial growth potential for Western Cement, with a low per capita cement consumption and high demand driven by urbanization and economic growth [8]. - The company has been expanding its overseas production capacity, with significant investments in Mozambique and Uganda, aiming to leverage the favorable market conditions in Africa [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing trend of cash dividends among listed companies for the year 2024, with over 260 companies distributing nearly 190 billion yuan in total cash dividends [1] - Major companies such as China Petroleum, Kweichow Moutai, and China Merchants Industry are leading the cash dividend distributions, with some exceeding 10 billion yuan [1][2] - Hunan-based companies, including Hualing Steel and Aoshikan, are also participating in cash dividend distributions, with Hualing Steel being noted as the "king of cash dividends" among Hunan stocks [2][3] Group 2 - China Petroleum completed its cash dividend distribution, paying 0.25 yuan per share, totaling 45.755 billion yuan, with its stock showing positive returns this year [1] - Hualing Steel reported a net profit growth rate of 43.55% year-on-year, with a focus on enhancing shareholder value through increased dividends and share buybacks [3] - The favorable policy environment encouraging dividend distributions is expected to attract more long-term capital into dividend-paying stocks, enhancing their appeal [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company is currently conducting preliminary research and feasibility studies for exporting cement products to Southeast Asia, but has not yet formed a specific investment plan [1] Group 1: Cement Export Project - The company is engaged in project research and feasibility studies for exporting cement products to Southeast Asia [1] - Talent reserve efforts are also being undertaken as part of the preliminary work for the export project [1] - No specific investment plan has been established at this stage [1] Group 2: Biotechnology Project - The company adheres to a cautious investment principle regarding its biotechnology projects [1] - There is currently no large-scale production in the biotechnology sector [1] - The company has no intention of pursuing acquisition plans in this area at present [1]