宏观经济分析报告 | | 政策动向等待数据确认 | | --- | --- | | | -宏观经济周报 | | 分析师:周喜 | SAC NO: S1150511010017 2025年6月20日 | | 证券分析师 . | 就外围环境而言,美国方面,尽管与 GDP 联系更为密切的"控制组"零售销 | | 周喜 | 售 5 月环比增速较此前有所改善,但在前期抢购热潮消退下,整体零售销 | | 022-28451972 | | | zhouxi@bhzq.com | 售环比增速还是现近 1 年以来最大降幅,特别是汽车销售成为主要拖累。 | | | 另外,代表服务业的餐厅和酒吧销售额环比增速也出现大幅下降。中美临时 | | 宋亦威 | 关税协议有助于短期消费者情绪缓和,但更实质的劳动力市场走弱风险仍 | | SAC NO: S1150514080001 | 会给消费带来压力。同样,5月工业产出也释放出经济放缓的信号,剔除波 | | 022-23861608 | | | songyw@bhzq.com | 动较大的汽车制造业外的其他制造业产出环比增速连续两月下滑,尚在讨 | 研 究 报 F 周 报 有色金属价格涨跌 ...

Core Viewpoint - Several multinational automotive companies are slowing down their electrification efforts and are betting on a multi-powertrain strategy to adapt to market variability and consumer preferences [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The electric vehicle (EV) market is experiencing different growth rates globally, with China having surpassed a 50% penetration rate for new energy vehicles, while North America and Europe lag behind [2][5]. - Audi has acknowledged the need for a flexible product mix that includes battery electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and internal combustion engine (ICE) models to cater to diverse market demands [1][3]. Group 2: Strategic Adjustments - Audi plans to maintain the appeal of its ICE models until the end of their product life cycles, with a goal to fully transition to electric vehicles by 2033 [3][4]. - Honda has revised its investment in electrification from 10 trillion yen to 7 trillion yen, anticipating that its global EV sales share will drop from 30% to around 20% by 2030 due to market expansion slowdowns [4][5]. Group 3: Consumer Preferences - Consumers are showing a preference for hybrid and fuel-efficient vehicles over fully electric options due to concerns about charging infrastructure and vehicle reliability [5][6]. - The shift in consumer logic emphasizes the importance of smart technology and user experience, prompting traditional automakers to enhance their offerings in the hybrid segment [2][5]. Group 4: Regional Strategies - Audi is focusing on strengthening its market position in China and North America by launching new models tailored to these markets, including the Q6L e-tron and other localized electric vehicles [6][7]. - The company aims to create a sustainable business model in China, emphasizing long-term growth rather than short-term gains [6]. Group 5: Financial Outlook - Audi anticipates a challenging financial year in 2025, projecting sales revenue between 67.5 billion and 72.5 billion euros, with an operating profit margin of 7% to 9% [7].

天眼查资料显示，长城汽车股份有限公司，成立于2001年，位于保定市，是一家以从事汽车制造业为主 的企业。企业注册资本848655.9123万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，长城汽车股份有限公司共对外 投资了74家企业，参与招投标项目2435次，财产线索方面有商标信息5000条，专利信息5000条，此外企 业还拥有行政许可619个。 专利摘要显示，本实用新型公开了一种车辆的副车架中横梁组件以及车辆，涉及车辆领域，中横梁上板 和中横梁下板共同限定出腔体；悬置安装支架包括支架上板，支架上板的部分结构位于腔体，中横梁上 板具有第一缺口，第一缺口与腔体连通，第一缺口的边缘具有第一翻边，支架上板包括第一板体，第一 板体位于第一翻边靠近中横梁下板的一侧且与第一翻边焊接。由此，通过使支架上板的部分结构位于腔 体，且使支架上板的第一板体与第一翻边焊接，能够使第一板体与中横梁上板在平面区域焊接，有利于 提高焊接质量，从而能够有效提高悬置安装支架的结构强度、抗疲劳性能以及承载能力，能够降低悬置 安装支架以及焊道开裂的概率，有利于提高使用可靠性。 金融界2025年6月20日消息，国家知识产权局信息显示，长城汽车股份有限公司取得一项名为 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that Junsheng Electronics is a leader in smart cockpits, smart driving, new energy management, and automotive safety systems, with a strong growth trajectory in new orders for 2024 [1][2] - Junsheng Electronics has secured new projects in automotive safety with a total lifecycle value of approximately 57.4 billion yuan, marking a historical high, and has exceeded expectations in the Chinese, Asia-Pacific, and European markets, particularly regaining large-scale orders from Japanese clients [1] - The company is expanding its production capacity, with the first phase of its new automotive safety base in Hefei completed and operational by the second half of 2023, expected to achieve an annual production capacity of 4 million steering wheels and 10 million airbags [1] Group 2 - Junsheng Electronics has received multiple high-level advanced driver assistance orders from a well-known domestic automaker, providing advanced intelligent driving domain controller solutions [2] - The company is entering the robotics sector, positioning itself as an "automotive + robotics Tier 1" supplier, leveraging its automotive technology and global customer base to offer hardware and software solutions to intelligent robotics manufacturers [2] - According to Tianfeng Securities, Junsheng Electronics is expected to benefit from the growing demand for smart driving and humanoid robots, with projected revenues of 64.51 billion yuan, 71.63 billion yuan, and 78.82 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, and net profits of 1.565 billion yuan, 1.877 billion yuan, and 2.299 billion yuan respectively, with a target price of 27.75 yuan [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Great Wall Motors Co., Ltd. has applied for a patent for a window frame shading system, which aims to enhance user comfort by controlling the shading of the window frame while allowing ventilation [1] - The patent application was filed on December 2023, and the publication number is CN120171252A [1] - The shading system includes a glass position acquisition unit, a shading assembly, and a controller that works together to reduce the likelihood of rainwater or dust entering the vehicle cabin while the window is open [1] Group 2 - Great Wall Motors Co., Ltd. was established in 2001 and is located in Baoding City, primarily engaged in the automotive manufacturing industry [2] - The company has a registered capital of approximately 848.66 million RMB [2] - Great Wall Motors has invested in 74 enterprises and participated in 2,435 bidding projects, with a significant amount of intellectual property, including 5,000 trademark and patent records [2]

Group 1: Siling Co., Ltd. (斯菱股份) - Siling Co., Ltd. is enhancing equipment utilization and product quality through differentiated product manufacturing, a complete supply chain system, and flexible production lines, covering mainstream global vehicle models [1] - The company plans to establish a robotics components division in 2024, focusing on the research and mass production of harmonic reducers, with core equipment already in place and a second production line planned [1] - Siling's Thailand factory has obtained origin certification and is expanding capacity with a third-phase investment, while its North American operations utilize an FOB model, minimizing tariff impacts on customers [1] Group 2: Yongli Co., Ltd. (永利股份) - Yongli Co., Ltd. possesses strong market responsiveness and industry-leading technical research capabilities in the lightweight conveyor belt sector, with a comprehensive product range [2] - The company is transitioning from a lightweight conveyor belt manufacturer to a solution provider, leveraging the advantages of electric rollers, which are simple in structure, easy to install, and energy-efficient [2] - In 2024, overseas sales are projected to account for 54.19% of total revenue, with plans to strengthen global business development and brand building [2] Group 3: Huatai Fund (汇添富基金) - Huatai Fund, established in 2005, has an asset management scale of 904.883 billion yuan, ranking 10th among 210 firms [3] - The fund manages 710 public funds and has 96 fund managers, ranking 7th in both categories [3] - The best-performing public fund in the past year is the Huatai North Exchange Innovation Selected Two-Year Open Mixed A, with a net value of 1.66 and a growth of 130.81% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The supplementary legal opinion letter indicates that Nanjing Quanfeng Automotive Precision Technology Co., Ltd. is proceeding with a specific issuance of A-shares, fully subscribed by DeRun Holdings, controlled by the actual controller Pan Longquan, which reflects confidence in the company's long-term development and stability of control [2][5][10]. Group 1: Issuance Details - The issuance is aimed at a specific group, with DeRun Holdings, a private company registered in Hong Kong, subscribing to all shares for cash [3][4]. - The total number of shares to be issued is 25,575,447, which will increase DeRun Holdings' stake in the company to 8.58% post-issuance [14][15]. Group 2: Compliance with Regulations - DeRun Holdings meets the requirements of the "Management Measures for Strategic Investment by Foreign Investors in Listed Companies," ensuring compliance with national laws and regulations [6][7]. - The company’s main business of automotive key components does not fall under the negative list for foreign investment, allowing DeRun Holdings to proceed with the investment [7][8]. Group 3: Funding Sources - The funding for the subscription comes from DeRun Holdings' own resources, including approximately HKD 473 million in dividends from its stake in Chervon Holdings and a short-term loan of USD 15 million to support business development [13][14]. - There are no indications of external fundraising or use of related party funds for this subscription [14][18]. Group 4: Shareholding Structure and Lock-up Period - After the issuance, Pan Longquan and his concerted actors will control 54.46% of the company, maintaining stable control [15][17]. - The lock-up period for the shares issued to DeRun Holdings complies with regulatory requirements, with a commitment not to transfer shares for 18 months if Pan Longquan's control remains above 50% [15][16]. Group 5: Related Party Transactions - The company has engaged in related party transactions, such as paying utility fees on behalf of related parties due to shared service accounts, which are deemed reasonable and compliant with disclosure requirements [19][20]. - The decision-making process for these transactions has been conducted in accordance with legal and regulatory standards, ensuring no adverse impact on the current issuance [21][22].

Group 1 - The State Intellectual Property Office of China has granted a patent for a heat insulation device used in range extender generator controllers, which was applied for by Shanghai Automotive Electric Drive Co., Ltd., Shanghai Electric Drive Co., Ltd., and Shanghai Automotive Electric Drive Engineering Technology Research Center Co., Ltd. [1] - The patent, identified as CN222996454U, was applied for on July 2024 and focuses on a shell-shaped heat insulation device that enhances thermal reflection, reduces thermal conductivity, and withstands high temperatures, thereby protecting the generator system assembly [1] - The design features a knurled pattern for high thermal reflectivity, a bending curve for increased strength and vibration resistance, and a lightweight aluminum alloy structure that reduces costs and simplifies installation [1] Group 2 - Shanghai Automotive Electric Drive Co., Ltd. was established in 2010, has a registered capital of 2,938.80327 million RMB, and has invested in 12 companies while holding 371 patents [2] - Shanghai Electric Drive Co., Ltd., founded in 2008, has a registered capital of 1,240.93191 million RMB, has invested in 8 companies, and holds 430 patents [2] - Shanghai Automotive Electric Drive Engineering Technology Research Center Co., Ltd., also established in 2010, has a registered capital of 10 million RMB and holds 341 patents [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Changan Automobile has gained an opportunity for independent development due to the failure of its joint ventures, which has ultimately led to its elevation to a first-tier state-owned enterprise, avoiding a merger with Dongfeng Motor Group [2][3][31] - In 2024, Changan's sales reached 2.684 million units, while Dongfeng's sales were 1.896 million units, indicating a 41.6% lead for Changan [1] - Changan's revenue in 2024 was 159.7 billion, compared to Dongfeng's 106.2 billion, marking a 50.4% advantage for Changan [1] Group 2 - Changan's net profit in 2024 was 2.59 billion, while Dongfeng reported a net loss of 690 million [1] - In the new energy vehicle sector, Changan sold 735,000 units in 2024, accounting for 27.4% of its total sales, while Dongfeng sold 395,000 units, representing 20.8% [1] - Changan's self-owned brand sales reached 2.226 million units in 2024, making up 93% of its total sales, a significant increase from 75% in 2020 [6][9] Group 3 - Changan's joint ventures, particularly with Ford, have seen a significant decline in performance, with investment income from Changan Ford turning negative in recent years [16][19] - The cash dividends from joint ventures have drastically decreased, with Changan receiving only 134 million in 2024, a mere 11.4% of what it received in 2016 [19][21] - The article highlights that Changan's early shift to focus on self-owned brands has allowed it to avoid the pitfalls faced by other automakers reliant on joint ventures [30][31] Group 4 - The article discusses the competitive landscape, noting that traditional automakers like SAIC and GAC are also facing challenges as the market shifts towards electric vehicles [32][35] - It emphasizes the importance of adapting to market changes, particularly in the context of price wars in the electric vehicle sector, which could further impact the profitability of joint ventures [32][34] - The government stance on maintaining fair competition while opposing disorderly price wars is also mentioned, indicating a complex regulatory environment for automakers [34][36]

Core Insights - The "Su Super" league has seen a significant increase in sponsorship, growing from 6 sponsors at the start to 19 sponsors by June 13, indicating strong commercial interest and engagement in the league [1][3]. Sponsorship Growth - The initial sponsors included Jiangsu Bank as the main title sponsor, with strategic partners and other sponsors totaling 6 [1]. - By the fourth round of matches, the number of sponsors had expanded to 19, with new strategic partners such as Longpan Technology, Ideal Auto, and KFC joining the league [1]. - The league's official sponsors increased to 5, with new additions like Nubia and Yili, while the number of official suppliers rose to 4 [1]. Comparison with Other Leagues - The number of sponsors for "Su Super" has surpassed that of the 2025 Chinese Super League (CSL), which had fewer than 10 sponsors listed [4]. - Despite the higher number of sponsors, the sponsorship fees for "Su Super" are significantly lower than those for the CSL, with the entire season's sponsorship price reaching 3 million yuan, while the CSL's title sponsorship can exceed 100 million yuan [4][5].