编者按： 一场持续多时的涨价潮，让存储行业发生明显变化。产业链上游，以三星、SK海力士、美光为代表的 存储厂商们，纷纷进行战略性产能迁移，将核心资源倾斜至HBM、DDR5等高附加值产品；产业链下 游，联想、小米等PC与手机厂商则面临一场严峻的成本大考，成本的上涨最终或将反映在面向消费者 的终端产品价格上。多家权威机构预测，这种因AI需求导致的结构性失衡，在未来6—12个月内难以缓 解，存储价格的高位运行或将持续至2026年。这也意味着，存储市场及产业链的变化，还将继续。 本报记者 彭新 在全球存储市场供需天平剧烈变化、量价齐升的时刻，存储芯片巨头美光近期做出重要调整。 近日，美光宣布将退出消费存储品牌英睿达（Crucial）业务，称自2026年3月起，消费者将无法再通过 零售商和电商平台购买到新的英睿达产品。对此，美光解释称，退出英睿达业务是一个艰难的决定，面 对AI驱动下数据中心需求的爆发式增长，公司必须对产能与资源进行重新配置，全力押注增长更快、 利润空间更高的企业级及AI战略客户。 美光是全球三大存储厂商之一。据市场调研机构集邦咨询数据，2025年三季度，美光是全球第三大 DRAM厂商，市场份额为25. ...

Group 1: NAND Flash Market - The current shortage of NAND flash memory is significantly higher than in the past, with many manufacturers' inventories only lasting until Q1 2026, leading to a widespread shortage by Q2 2026 [1] - Micron's recent NAND price increase has seen monthly price hikes approaching 50%, causing module manufacturers to adopt Open Order pricing to mitigate cost risks [1] - The price surge is driven by manufacturers shifting capacity towards high-profit enterprise and AI applications, alongside a rapid exit of older process capacities, resulting in a structural wafer supply shortage [1] Group 2: Drone Delivery and Low-altitude Economy - Meituan's integrated low-altitude drone delivery network aims to achieve delivery efficiency within a 3-kilometer radius in 15 minutes, marking a shift from pilot projects to full-scale operations [2][4] - The low-altitude economy is projected to reach a market size of 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025 and 3.5 trillion yuan by 2035, indicating a golden development period for related enterprises [2] - The launch of regular low-altitude drone medical sample delivery routes in Shanghai represents a significant step in utilizing drone technology for healthcare logistics [4] Group 3: Optical Design Breakthrough - A significant breakthrough in computational optical imaging has been achieved, reducing reliance on complex optical systems for high-resolution imaging, with applications in mobile cameras, medical endoscopes, and automotive sensors [3] - This new paradigm in imaging technology emphasizes reducing physical complexity while enhancing information processing, potentially revolutionizing imaging across various industries [3] Group 4: Alibaba's AI Application Growth - Alibaba's AI application, Qianwen, has surpassed 30 million active users within 23 days of its public testing, becoming the fastest-growing AI application globally [4] - New features in the Qianwen app, such as AI PPT and AI writing, enhance its functionality, transitioning it from a conversational tool to a practical assistant [4]

Industry News - A new polysilicon platform company named Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. has been registered with a capital of 3 billion, established on December 9, 2025, in Beijing. The company aims to explore potential strategic cooperation opportunities within the industry, such as technology upgrades and market expansion [25][25]. - The National Retail Innovation Development Conference is being held in Beijing from December 9 to 10. The Deputy Minister of Commerce, Sheng Qiuping, emphasized the need for further improvement in retail layout, supply-demand matching, and online-offline balance, while also encouraging the development of new business models and scenarios to stimulate consumer potential [25][25]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation has approved the release of two mandatory national standards for civil unmanned aerial vehicles, which will take effect on May 1, 2026 [25][25]. - Alibaba has established the Qianwen C-end Business Group, aiming to develop Qianwen into a super app and the primary entry point for users in the AI era [26][26]. - Huawei's 2012 Lab has established a foundational model department focused on advancing base model development and is actively recruiting young research talents with outstanding academic backgrounds [26][26]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported that pork supply in November was sufficient, with prices slightly decreasing. The average daily market volume of pork in Beijing's Xinfadi market was 2,128.8 heads, a 10.57% increase from October and a 7.54% increase year-on-year [26][26]. - The National Development and Reform Commission indicated that the coking coal market shifted from tight to loose in November, with price expectations declining. The coking coal price expectation index fell to below the 50% threshold, indicating weak support for the market [26][26]. Company News - Jiaao Environmental Protection announced that due to false records in the 2022 and 2023 annual reports, the company's stock will be subject to other risk warnings [27][27]. - Huilun Crystal also announced that its 2021 and 2022 annual reports contained false records, leading to similar risk warnings for its stock [27][27]. - Haiguang Information announced the termination of its major asset restructuring with Zhongke Shuguang [28][28]. - Zhongke Shuguang announced the termination of its share swap absorption merger with Haiguang Information and the associated fundraising [29][29]. - Tianyuan Dike announced that its chairman, Chen You, has been placed under detention [30][30]. - Lain Biological announced that its controlling shareholder is planning a change of control and intends to acquire at least 80% of Beijing Jinkangpu's shares, leading to a stock suspension [30][30]. - Shengyi Technology announced an investment of approximately 198 million yuan to build an annual production project of 2,400 tons of ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fiber, expanding its application value in humanoid robots [30][30]. - HoloWave announced a significant increase in orders for satellite testing systems, primarily from commercial aerospace satellite manufacturers and testing service providers [30][30]. - Longi Green Energy announced the termination of its overseas issuance of global depositary receipts [31][31]. - Zaiseng Technology announced that its controlling shareholder, Guo Mao, plans to transfer 6.04% of the company's shares to Zhongrong Huaxin [31][31]. - Si Rui Pu announced the termination of its plan to acquire shares of Aola, and its stock will resume trading [32][32]. - Fosun Pharma announced that its subsidiary, Yaoyou Pharmaceutical, has signed a licensing agreement with Pfizer [33][33].

Core Viewpoint - UBS believes that the traditional DRAM market is experiencing a tightening supply due to a large-scale shift in industry capacity towards HBM, while demand remains robust, leading to a significant enhancement in pricing power [1] Group 1: DRAM Market Dynamics - The gross margin for Micron's traditional DRAM is expected to reach 67% in Q2 2026, surpassing HBM's 62% for the first time [1] - This advantage is projected to continue expanding, with traditional DRAM gross margins reaching 71% in Q3 and 75% in Q4 [1] Group 2: Market Trends and Pricing - According to reports, memory modules have become "electronic Maotai," with prices rising faster than gold, and a 64G DDR5 memory kit exceeding 4000 yuan, which is 1000 yuan more expensive than a PS5 gaming console [1] - Retailers in Huaqiangbei have stopped labeling prices for memory modules due to rapid price fluctuations, with changes occurring multiple times a day [1] Group 3: Future Outlook for Storage Chips - Wanlian Securities reports that the storage chip sector is likely to enter a new prosperity cycle driven by AI, with stronger demand, accelerated technology iterations, and upgraded supply-side capacity control strategies [1] - The limited new capacity on the supply side in the short term suggests that the supply-demand gap is expected to persist, indicating a stronger sustainability of price increases in the storage industry [1]

Core Insights - The electronic consumer industry is facing a significant price increase driven by a "storage super cycle" triggered by the AI boom, leading to rising costs for PC and smartphone manufacturers [2][5][12] - The price adjustments are not straightforward; manufacturers are employing various strategies to manage consumer perception of price increases [4][5] Group 1: Price Increases and Market Dynamics - The PC industry is experiencing the most immediate impact, with expected price increases of 10% to 20% for laptops and commercial PCs due to soaring DRAM and SSD costs [5] - In the smartphone market, manufacturers are adopting "stealth price hikes" by reducing initial discounts or promotional offers rather than raising official prices [5][10] - The surge in storage prices is attributed to the high demand from AI data centers, which has led to a significant shortage in DRAM supply [7][12] Group 2: Supply Chain and Inventory Strategies - Companies like Xiaomi are warning about the unprecedented BOM cost increases, indicating a high reliance on storage components [9] - Lenovo, on the other hand, has built up inventory levels by 50% above normal to mitigate the impact of rising costs, leveraging long-term supply agreements to maintain price stability [9][12] - Smaller brands with limited inventory and weaker bargaining power are at risk of being forced to raise prices or delay new product launches [10] Group 3: Long-term Industry Trends - The current price surge is fundamentally different from previous cycles, as it is driven by structural shortages due to AI demand rather than traditional consumer electronics sales [7][12] - The shift in production capacity towards high-margin AI-related products is expected to continue, with major manufacturers prioritizing advanced memory types over consumer-grade products [7][12] - Lenovo's acquisition of Infinidat is a strategic move to enhance its control over high-end storage solutions, reflecting a broader trend of viewing storage as a strategic asset rather than just a cost component [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The report summarizes significant rating changes from Wall Street that are expected to impact the market, highlighting both upgrades and downgrades across various companies and sectors [1][6]. Upgrades - Synopsys (SNPS): Rosenblatt Securities upgraded the rating from "Neutral" to "Buy," lowering the target price from $605 to $560, anticipating that Q4 results will meet market expectations after a disappointing Q3 [5]. - Eaton Corporation (ETN): Wolfe Research upgraded the rating from "In-Line" to "Outperform," setting a target price of $413, expecting benefits from electrical business orders and easing cyclical factors in 2026 [5]. - Colgate-Palmolive (CL): Royal Bank of Canada upgraded the rating from "Sector Perform" to "Outperform," maintaining a target price of $88, noting that earnings expectations are at a reasonable low despite challenges in 2026 [5]. - RPM International (RPM): Royal Bank of Canada upgraded the rating from "Sector Perform" to "Outperform," raising the target price from $121 to $132, indicating that the stock price has "bottomed out" [5]. - Viking Holdings (VIK): Goldman Sachs upgraded the rating from "Neutral" to "Buy," increasing the target price from $66 to $78, citing the company's unique geographic business layout and high-income customer focus [5]. Downgrades - Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD): Harbor Research downgraded the rating from "Buy" to "Neutral" without providing a target price, following a hostile takeover bid from Paramount [5]. - Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH): Goldman Sachs downgraded the rating from "Buy" to "Neutral," lowering the target price from $23 to $21, citing an unfavorable risk-reward ratio due to market conditions in the Caribbean [5]. - Confluent (CFLT): Royal Bank of Canada downgraded the rating from "Outperform" to "Sector Perform," raising the target price from $30 to $31, following an acquisition agreement with IBM at $31 per share [5]. - SLM Corporation (SLM): Compass Point downgraded the rating from "Buy" to "Sell," reducing the target price from $35 to $23, after revealing updated mid-term outlooks at an investor forum [5]. - Viavi Solutions (VRT): Wolfe Research downgraded the rating from "Outperform" to "In-Line," citing valuation issues as the stock price has increased 14 times since the last upgrade [5]. Initiations - Micron Technology (MU): HSBC initiated coverage with a "Buy" rating and a target price of $330, identifying the company as a core beneficiary of the storage chip supercycle [9]. - United Airlines (UAL): Montreal Bank Capital Markets initiated coverage with an "Outperform" rating and a target price of $125, noting improvements in the industry environment and recovery in business travel [12]. - Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO): Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a "Buy" rating and a target price of $685, expecting the market for life science tools to return to historical growth rates [12]. - Affirm (AFRM): Wolfe Research initiated coverage with a "Sector Perform" rating, setting a fair value range of $72-$82 for the end of 2026 [10]. - Urban Outfitters (URBN): Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a "Neutral" rating and a target price of $83, acknowledging market positioning but cautioning against high valuation risks [10].

（来源：半导体前线） 由于大量产能被人工智能挤压，传统存储类产品的供给大大减少，从10月以来，全球存储供应链陷入混 乱、缺货、涨价的局面。 恩智浦（NXP）中国台湾区业务总经理臧益群指出，近期内存市场因为供不应求，价格大涨的情况，市 场传出同样的东西一个要花 8 倍的价钱才可以买得到的情形，这使得恩智浦本身都受到些微的影响。 价格飙升的压力正全面转嫁给消费者和电子产品制造商。 宜鼎董事长简川胜表示，内存缺货已全面进入结构性短缺，不只DRAM，SSD与NAND的涨价潮也才刚 开始。对于外界关注NAND扩厂是否能舒缓供应，他指出影响极有限。国际大厂即使想扩产，也已排到 2027、2028年，短期根本来不及补足缺口。 十铨总经理陈庆文揭露最新12月DRAM与NAND Flash合约价，指出不仅三大原厂全面喊涨，部分涨幅 更高达80-100%，直呼没有听错，显现AI服务器对内存的庞大需求，并预期内存真正缺货潮「还没 到」，2026年全年都看不到价格下滑的理由。 群联执行长潘健成认为，全球AI与高速运算需求强劲，推升存储需求激增，但原厂对产能扩充态度仍 相对保守，使得NAND报价维持高档，且交期不断延长。 威刚董座陈立 ...

炒股的朋友可以免费领取福利，具体看这里。 要闻精选与涉及板块 1. 中央政治局会议：明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗 争，更好统筹发展和安全；继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量 政策集成效应。 【涉及板块】整个市场流动性无忧，这是市场走牛的必备前提之一 2. 央视新闻：进入冬季，多地中小学生相继迎来"雪假"出游热度高涨。11月29日至12月7日"雪假"期 间，从乌鲁木齐和阿勒泰出发的机票预订量显著增长。从乌鲁木齐出发的机票预订量环比11月15日至23 日增长45%，而从阿勒泰出发的机票预订量环比增长48%，尤其飞往南方温暖城市的航线更受欢迎。 【涉及板块】AI应用概念 5. 税务总局：前11个月，办理离境退税的境外旅客数量同比增长285%，退税商品销售额和退税额同比 增长98.8%。截至11月底，全国离境退税商店已达12252家，提供"即买即退"服务的商店超7000家。 【涉及板块】免税概念 6. 证券时报：临近年末，跨年行情预期升温。但公募在跨年布局上则各有各的"心思"，浮盈明显的基金 想保存收益平稳收尾，前期回报不明显的基金则想最后再冲 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS believes that the traditional DRAM market is experiencing a significant shift due to a supply squeeze, leading to enhanced pricing power and profitability for traditional DRAM, which is expected to surpass HBM margins starting in Q2 2026 [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The shift in industry capacity towards HBM has resulted in a tightening supply of traditional DRAM, while demand remains robust, creating a mismatch that drives up pricing power [7]. - UBS forecasts that traditional DRAM gross margins will reach 67% in Q2 2026, surpassing HBM's 62% for the first time, with margins expected to further increase to 71% in Q3 and 75% in Q4 [5][11]. Group 2: Financial Projections - For Q1 FY2026, traditional DRAM revenue is projected to be $8.22 billion, with a mere 1% increase in shipment volume but a significant 16% rise in average selling price [5]. - UBS's revenue and EPS forecasts for Micron in Q1 FY2026 are significantly higher than management's guidance, driven primarily by improved pricing [12]. Group 3: HBM Business Outlook - Although HBM remains a core growth story for Micron, UBS anticipates a slowdown in HBM revenue growth due to capacity constraints, with Q1 FY2026 HBM revenue expected to grow approximately 35% quarter-over-quarter [8]. - For the full year, UBS estimates HBM revenue will reach $13.05 billion in FY2026 and increase to $21.24 billion in FY2027, with HBM's share of total revenue rising from 17% in FY2025 to 26% in FY2027 [11]. Group 4: Long-term Market Trends - UBS emphasizes that the current semiconductor cycle may last longer than market expectations due to HBM's significant consumption of wafer capacity, effectively creating a "crowding out" effect on the traditional storage market [11][12]. - The report indicates that the structural supply shortage provides a durable competitive advantage for major players like Micron [11].

Core Viewpoint - The storage industry is expected to enter a new prosperity cycle driven by AI, with increasing demand for servers and storage due to accelerated capital expenditure from cloud vendors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Size and Growth - The global storage market is projected to reach a historical high in Q3 2025, with DRAM market size increasing by 24.7% to $40.037 billion and NAND market size growing by 16.8% to $18.422 billion [2]. - The demand for storage chips is anticipated to be stronger due to AI-driven growth, accelerated technology iterations, and limited new supply capacity in the short term, leading to sustained price increases in the storage industry [2]. Group 2: Cloud Vendor Capital Expenditure - Major global cloud service providers have significantly increased capital investments since 2025 to meet the strong demand for AI data centers and cloud computing, with a projected annual growth rate of 65% in capital expenditure [3]. - By 2026, total capital expenditure from these cloud vendors is expected to exceed $600 billion, with a 40% annual growth rate, which will drive demand for AI servers and upstream storage supply chains [3]. Group 3: Technological Innovations - High-end DRAM markets are being led by HBM and DDR5 technologies, with HBM configurations becoming increasingly common in AI acceleration cards, driving steady growth in the HBM market [4]. - The NAND market is seeing advancements in QLC NAND technology, which balances high capacity, low power consumption, and high performance, leading to increased penetration of QLC SSDs in enterprise storage [4]. Group 4: Domestic Market Opportunities - The global storage market is highly concentrated, with major players like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron dominating the landscape [5]. - Domestic DRAM leader Changxin Storage has achieved breakthroughs in DDR5/LPDDR5X technology, while domestic NAND Flash leader Yangtze Memory Technologies has made significant advancements in QLC and TLC products, positioning them to benefit from the new prosperity cycle [5]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Investment opportunities are identified in storage manufacturers due to strong demand driven by AI and supply-side capacity adjustments, which may lead to improved profitability [6]. - Domestic storage module manufacturers are expected to see improved profitability due to rising gross margins and increased inventory levels, alongside recovering downstream demand [6]. - Upstream equipment suppliers are likely to benefit from increased capital expenditure by storage manufacturers, suggesting a focus on leading firms in the equipment sector [6].