周期板块估值处于低位 近期政策面、大工程"暖风"齐吹，一举点燃了A股周期板块压抑已久的热情。宝晓辉视其为"巨大的利 好"：国家将综合整治"内卷式竞争"提升至战略高度，推动落后产能有序退出，这套组合拳直指优化供 需关系与提升商品价格，最终有望转化为企业业绩与市值的双重支撑。此外，经济基本面的背书同样有 力，稳中向好的经济复苏态势有望提振大宗商品需求。 章诗颖表示，A股周期板块近期的强势反弹，既源于供给侧改革预期升温，更得益于"相关板块整体估 值处于历史低位，机构持有筹码较少"的情况。 前述上海中型私募基金经理从资金博弈角度认同这一观点：上半年新消费、创新药、红利等板块的行情 已充分演绎，机构"配置纠偏"初步完成。而上游资源、新能源、地产等长期被冷落的领域，在"反内 卷、优供给及大型水电工程"等催化剂作用下，极易产生"升温效应"。 ● 本报记者 王辉 上周以来，国内商品期货市场多个工业品价格急速拉升，基建、有色、钢铁、建材等板块在A股市场轮 番领涨。推动力来自政策端与消息面的双重刺激：工信部宣布将实施新一轮十大重点行业稳增长工作方 案，着力调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能；同时，雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程开工仪式举行，点 ...

Group 1 - Citigroup's outlook suggests that if growth remains resilient and prices improve, the attractiveness of Chinese assets will increase [1] - Deutsche Bank indicates that the burden of tariffs is primarily borne by Americans, leading to downward pressure on the dollar [2] - Dutch International highlights concerns over the UK's fiscal situation, which has contributed to the depreciation of the pound [3] Group 2 - Pantheon Macroeconomics notes that the deterioration of UK public finance data increases the likelihood of tax measures in the upcoming autumn budget [4] - Capital Economics argues that Trump's tariffs are unlikely to significantly revive U.S. manufacturing, as competition from low-wage countries remains a challenge [5] - Saxo Bank views the recent U.S.-Japan trade agreement as a political show rather than a substantial economic catalyst [6] Group 3 - Citic Construction states that the controllable nuclear fusion industry is entering a fast development phase, positively impacting the supply chain [7] - Citic Construction estimates that the average annual demand for coal-fired power generation capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period will be 60-80 GW, significantly higher than current market expectations [8] - Citic Securities continues to recommend leading companies in the thermal coal sector, anticipating a new round of opportunities due to recovering coal prices [9] Group 4 - Citic Securities predicts a 25-30% increase in cement demand in Tibet by 2026, driven by ongoing infrastructure development [10] - Citic Securities expects the banking sector to maintain an upward trend in Q3 2025, supported by favorable market conditions [11] - Huatai Securities reports that the domestic "anti-involution" measures are creating opportunities in the metals sector, with price recoveries in polysilicon and other materials [12]

Group 1 - Coking coal futures experienced a night session increase of 7.25%, reaching a peak of 1193 yuan, before the gain narrowed to 4.5% [1] - Coking coal had previously hit the limit up for two consecutive trading days [1] - Coke prices rose by 2.29% during the same period [1] Group 2 - Rebar, low-sulfur fuel oil, and fuel oil saw declines of up to 1% [1] - Iron ore prices fell by 1.1%, while soda ash and alumina dropped by 1.6% and 2.3% respectively [1]

连续上攻后，市场预期有哪些新变化 20250723 摘要 事件性催化及资金驱动：雅下水利工程 1.2 万亿投资和工信部稳增长方 案提振基建板块，煤炭供给侧担忧推高资源品价格。上证综指突破关键 点位后，新入场资金涌入低估值基建和周期品板块，形成共振效应。 雅下水利工程的情绪影响：尽管中信建投测算其对 GDP 拉动仅为 0.15%，但市场将其视为反内卷政策的一部分，叠加周期性板块估值偏 低，引发市场强烈反应，需警惕"A 字形"走势风险。 市场对反内卷政策的偏好：市场更认可上游资源品，因其供给侧改革经 验丰富。对光伏、锂电等领域的需求侧政策及民营企业占比存在担忧。 上游资源品作为供给侧改革映射行情，更易获市场认可。 短期与长期投资策略冲突：短期内可跟随上游资源品期货价格操作，但 官方态度谨慎。长期应围绕反内卷政策及光伏、锂电、汽车等方向布局。 基建和上游资源品板块存在长逻辑与短逻辑的冲突。 市场风险偏好提升：中美关系缓和，VIX 指数降至 2 月以来最低水平， 外部环境担忧减小。增量资金入市情况良好，两融融资买入占比突破 10%，杠杆资金看好后市，预示中长期行情启动。 Q&A 近期 A 股市场连续上涨的原因是什么？ ...

Q&A 煤炭板块如何受益"反内卷"？20250723 摘要 当前反内卷政策可视为对未实现通胀逻辑的补充，稳增长方案和大基建 项目提振需求端预期，间接利好煤炭板块。 通过放开上游产能压低价格，加剧中游竞争，反内卷旨在打开需求端承 接渠道，疏导中下游利润，接力未尽的通胀逻辑，走出通缩困境。 煤炭行业受益于供给约束，能够分享中下游产业链利润增长。2015- 2021 年去产能后，即使 2022 年保供政策放开，整体供给仍未过剩。 108 号文件进一步收缩煤炭供给，强化了供给约束，使得煤炭行业能够 享受中游反内卷带来的利润转移，焦煤价格已出现明显反弹。 预计 2026 年底以后煤炭板块将迎来趋势性上涨行情，原因包括国内供 给投放完毕、资源枯竭风险以及库存周期消化。 煤炭价格已触底，位于 570~610 元/吨成本支撑区间。2025 年底行业 趋势性上涨可能性较小，2026 年后火电需求回升或带动煤炭需求和价 格上涨。 推荐焦煤股潞安环能、平煤股份和神火股份，动力煤股晋控煤业和陕西 煤业，以及长期红利股中国神华和中国煤炭能源。 反内卷政策对煤炭行业的影响是什么？ 反内卷政策对煤炭行业的影响主要体现在估值修复和市场情绪驱 ...

Summary of Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the coal industry, particularly the impact of government policies on coal supply and pricing dynamics [1][3][10]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Government Policy Impact**: The National Energy Administration's policy aims to adjust coal supply to stabilize prices, with expectations of a 10% supply reduction in major production areas like Xinjiang [1][5]. 2. **Price Trends**: Optimism in market sentiment is noted, with expectations for both thermal coal and coking coal prices to rise, potentially reaching 700 RMB/ton by October [1][6][18]. 3. **Production Capacity Review**: The coal industry's capacity review policy has ambiguities, allowing large groups to avoid overproduction checks through flexible capacity adjustments [1][8]. 4. **Differential Impact on Enterprises**: The decline in coal prices has affected private and state-owned enterprises differently; private firms are reducing output due to cash flow pressures, while state-owned firms maintain production for supply and employment stability [1][9]. 5. **Investment Opportunities**: The current market conditions present a good opportunity to invest in quality coal stocks with reversal potential, particularly in the context of government policies and supply reductions [1][7][23]. 6. **Historical Context of Supply-Side Reform**: The current supply-side adjustments are not expected to be as drastic as the 2016 reforms, which significantly reduced excess capacity [10][11]. 7. **Price Recovery Mechanism**: The government aims to balance profitability between coal and power sectors, with a target to stabilize thermal coal prices around 670 RMB/ton [19][22]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Market Sentiment**: Recent strong performance in coal stocks and futures reflects market reactions to government energy policies, with a cumulative increase of 15% to 20% in coal stocks since April [15]. 2. **Seasonal Price Variations**: Thermal coal prices are expected to rise significantly during the "golden September and silver October" period due to increased demand from non-electric coal uses [17]. 3. **Coking Coal Price Dynamics**: Coking coal prices are supported by expectations of supply reductions, but the fundamental demand remains weak, indicating potential volatility [20]. 4. **Cost Advantages in Coal Chemical Industry**: The coal chemical sector has seen significant cost advantages, impacting overall market dynamics and pricing strategies [21]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call regarding the coal industry, highlighting the interplay between government policies, market sentiment, and investment opportunities.

查超产，从水泥到煤炭，还有谁？20250722 摘要 国家能源局牵头，联合发改委等部门，将于 9 月启动对山西、内蒙古等 八省煤矿的生产督查，重点核查 2024 年产量、产能及 2025 年生产计 划，旨在规范煤炭生产秩序，预计 10 月形成督查结果。 政策核心在于恢复煤矿公告产能，停止超额保供生产，此举将直接影响 煤炭供给量，尤其是在上半年普遍超产 10%以上的情况下，下半年煤炭 企业需按公告产能安排生产。 新增产能持续释放，预计到 2027 年将有约 10 亿吨新增产能投放市场， 对煤价形成压制。尽管短期停产可能迅速推高煤价，但迎峰度冬保供需 求限制了年内煤价大幅上涨空间。 煤炭价格下跌导致市场煤与长协煤价格倒挂，影响长协煤履约。发改委 或将采取调控措施，维持煤价在 570~770 元/吨的合理区间，以保障上 下游企业利润，稳定电力供应。 西部和西北地区煤矿普遍存在超产现象，新政策要求恢复至公告核定能 力范围内，可能导致部分矿井减产。7 月和 8 月的产量数据将初步反映 政策执行效果。 Q&A 国家能源局最近发布的文件出台背景和流程是什么？ 最近国家能源局发布了两个非公开文件。第一个文件主要是为了保障煤炭 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is trading on the positive expectations under the policy orientation of "anti - involution" and "stable growth". The unexpected release of the over - production verification policy has led to the continued release of market excitement, driving the futures and spot prices to run strongly in resonance. However, attention should be paid to the technical correction risk after the rapid rise of the market [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Market Performance - Yesterday, the prices of coal and coke futures rose strongly, with multiple contracts hitting consecutive daily limits. The night - session near - month coking coal contract continued to hit the daily limit. The spot market was also strong, and the second round of coke price increases was being gradually implemented [2] Policy Factors - The market spread that the National Energy Administration recently issued a document on organizing and carrying out the verification of coal mine production. The verification covers production coal mines in 8 provinces (autonomous regions) including Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, etc. The most concerned content in the verification is whether the annual raw coal output in 2024 exceeded the announced production capacity and whether the monthly raw coal output from January to June 2025 exceeded 10% of the announced production capacity. This policy will standardize the production behavior of coal mining enterprises and further stimulate the rise of coal prices [2] Fundamental Factors - Last week, coal mines in the main production areas of Shanxi continued the resumption rhythm, but the overall resumption process was still slow. Downstream procurement enthusiasm was high, and the demand for replenishment and speculation was concentratedly released. The pressure of high supply and high inventory of coal mines was significantly reduced, and coal prices were prone to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. On the demand side, coking plants and steel mills have accelerated their raw material replenishment. The available days of coking coal inventory in the plants have rebounded from a low level, and the average daily hot metal output of steel mill blast furnaces has rebounded to 2.4244 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.0263 million tons [2]

证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 2025 年 07 月 23 日 定期报告 黑色系商品价格上涨，新能源和光伏产业链价格反弹 ——行业景气观察（0723） 相关报告 本周景气度改善的方向主要在上游资源品、中游制造、信息技术领域。上游资源 品中，钢材、煤炭、玻璃价格上涨；中游制造领域，光伏和部分新能源产业链价 格上涨，6 月包装专用设备、金属成形机床产量三个月滚动同比增幅收窄。信息 技术中，DRAM 价格上行，6 月电信主营收入三个月滚动同比增幅扩大。消费服 务领域，空冰洗彩零售额四周滚动同比增幅扩大。近期涨价品类主要集中在资源 品、新能源和光伏产业链，以及部分农产品。推荐景气较高或有改善的焦炭、钢 铁、建材、有色、电池、硅料硅片、半导体、通信、证券等。 《6 月社零同比增幅收窄，智能手 机产量同比转正（0716）》 《6 月 CPI 同比转正，挖机、装 载机销量同比增幅扩大（0709）》 风险提示：产业扶持度不及预期，宏观经济波动。 ❑【本周关注】近期受益于"反内卷"政策预期，相关的黑色系商品以及新能源和 光伏产业链价格较大反弹。具体来看，涨价品类主要有：1）钢材、煤炭、玻璃、 纯碱等受益于"反内卷"催化，价格 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the ongoing pressure on real estate sales and service consumption demand, while durable goods exports are also facing challenges. The expectation of "anti-involution" policies continues to drive up the prices of cyclical resource products such as steel, float glass, coal, and non-ferrous metals [1] Group 1: Downstream Consumption - Real estate sales continue to decline, with the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities down by 23.1% year-on-year. First, second, and third-tier cities saw declines of 18.9%, 29.9%, and 14.0% respectively [2] - In durable goods, retail sales of passenger cars increased by 11.0% year-on-year, showing a slight uptick. However, air conditioning sales saw a divergence, with domestic sales up by 16.5% and exports down by 12.7% [2] - Service consumption is experiencing seasonal improvement, with the tourism consumption price index in Hainan up by 0.8% and movie box office revenue up by 35.0% week-on-week, although the year-on-year decline has widened [2] Group 2: Midstream Manufacturing - Weak real estate demand continues to drag down construction activity, while expectations for "anti-involution" policies are strengthening in cyclical industries. Steel prices have rebounded, and float glass prices have increased, but cement prices remain under pressure [3] - Manufacturing activity shows a mixed performance, with the operating rate of automotive steel tires increasing, while the chemical industry shows varied results. The willingness of companies to hire has decreased month-on-month but remains significantly higher year-on-year [3] - Resource prices are rising due to increased electricity consumption driven by high summer temperatures and tightening supply expectations, with coal prices continuing to rise [3] Group 3: Passenger and Freight Logistics - Passenger transport demand has slightly decreased, but long-distance migration demand continues to grow, with the migration scale index up by 4.8% month-on-month and 16.1% year-on-year [4] - Freight logistics remain robust, with highway truck traffic and railway freight volume increasing by 0.7% and 1.1% month-on-month, respectively, and year-on-year increases of 2.0% and 6.8% [4] - Maritime transport rates are recovering, with domestic port cargo and container throughput increasing by 2.4% and 2.6% month-on-month, indicating improved export activity [4]