Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of the US-China trade war on the currency exchange rates, particularly the Chinese Yuan (RMB), and the implications for traditional trade enterprises and e-commerce. Core Points and Arguments 1. **RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations**: The RMB has been oscillating between 7.3 and 7.35, with market expectations divided on its future trajectory due to the ongoing US-China trade tensions and central bank policies [1][4][10]. 2. **Impact of Tariffs on Trade**: Traditional trade enterprises are significantly affected by tariffs, leading to a halt in US export orders or a shift to overseas factories. E-commerce sellers are mitigating tariff impacts through low declaration methods [2][25]. 3. **Market Volatility Post-Tariff Announcement**: Following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs by the Trump administration, global asset markets experienced significant volatility, with the RMB showing relatively small fluctuations compared to the overall depreciation of the USD [3][5]. 4. **Divergent Views on RMB Future**: There are mixed opinions on the RMB's future, with some predicting continued depreciation due to the trade war, while others see potential for appreciation given the overall weakness of the USD [4][10][13]. 5. **Tariff Policy and Dollar Weakness**: The extensive nature of the tariffs has accelerated global trade decoupling, weakening the USD's reserve status and leading to a decline in the dollar index below 100 [5][6]. 6. **Euro Valuation**: The Euro is considered undervalued against the USD, with a reasonable valuation around 1.2, suggesting potential for appreciation if trade tensions escalate further [6][12]. 7. **Current State of US-China Trade Relations**: The trade war is currently at a stalemate, with no significant escalation or comprehensive tariffs being implemented [7][8]. 8. **RMB Pricing and Tariff Risks**: The current RMB exchange rate has already priced in tariff risks, with the depreciation being less severe than during the 2018-2019 trade war period [9][10]. 9. **Potential for RMB Appreciation**: If US-China negotiations lead to a resolution, the additional risk pricing due to tariffs could be eliminated, potentially causing a sharp appreciation of the RMB [12][13]. 10. **Traditional Trade Enterprises' Strategies**: Different types of traditional trade enterprises are responding variably to the tariff situation, with some maintaining operations through local factories in the US, while others are exploring non-US markets [16][17]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **E-commerce Seller Adaptability**: E-commerce sellers can absorb a certain percentage of tariff increases without raising prices, indicating a resilience in their business model compared to traditional trade [26]. 2. **Logistics and Shipping Adjustments**: The shipping industry is adjusting to reduced trade volumes, with a significant drop in traditional trade leading to a reduction in shipping capacity [29][30]. 3. **Investment Considerations for Enterprises**: Companies looking to expand overseas must consider political stability, tax incentives, and local regulations to mitigate risks associated with international investments [18][19][22]. 4. **Financial Risks in Emerging Markets**: Investing in regions with unstable currencies, such as some African nations, poses significant financial risks due to potential currency fluctuations [24]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the intricate dynamics of the US-China trade war and its broader implications for currency valuation and international trade strategies.

央视网消息：记者从中船集团获悉，4月15日，全球最大的24000箱级双燃料动力集装箱船正式交付，再次刷新我国双燃料集装箱船建造纪 录，交付后这艘船将用于远东至欧洲航线的货物运输。 15日交付的全球最大双燃料动力集装箱船一次可承载22万吨货物，24000个集装箱堆叠高度相当于25层楼，被称为海上"超级带货王"。同 时，这型船还采用了绿色燃料——液化天然气作为动力，可为船舶提供单个航次近2万海里的超远续航。据介绍，这条船的特点是以液化天然 气作为动力来源，更清洁、更环保，而且装箱量是全世界最大级别，大大提高了海运效率和经济性。专家告诉记者，中国在集装箱船建造领域 接连刷新纪录——从21000箱到23000箱，再到今天交付的24000箱，船越造越大的同时，建造周期也越来越短，这是中国造船能力的体现。 如今，中国造船业已形成完整的产业链体系，靠着船舶建造技术不断地更新和迭代，持续吸引着全球客户下单。相关负责人介绍，把最前 沿的、最新的技术应用到产品建造当中，我国船舶建造的管理能力大幅度提升，对船东实现按计划履约甚至提前交付，帮助船东更好扩展航运 版图，这也是为什么越来越多的大船东愿意跟中国造船企业签订合同的原因。 目 ...

美国要解决造船业面临的挑战，关键在于正视并着手解决问题，"给别人吃药无法治愈自己的疾病"。 在美对华全方位打压遏制持续深化的背景下，美国依据"301条款"对中国造船业发起调查，并出台《重 建美国海事主导地位》行政令，指控中国通过所谓"不公平竞争"形成造船业竞争优势。这一结论不仅无 视全球造船产业发展的基本规律，更暴露出对现代工业体系运行逻辑的严重误判。 本文通过中美两国造船业的建造成本、生产效率、技术创新、配套体系和规模效益对比，揭示美国造船 业竞争力衰退的根本原因在于其自身产业链空心化、技术工人断层、配套体系失能等结构性矛盾。美国 要解决造船业面临的挑战，关键在于正视并着手解决这些问题，"给别人吃药无法治愈自己的疾病"。 一、船舶成本对比 克拉克森数据显示，不同船型，美国船厂新造船价格较中国船厂可高达6倍。2014年签单的MR型成品 油轮，美国船厂报价1.25亿美元，同期中国船厂报价3650万美元。2020年签单的2200吨风电安装船，美 国船厂报价6.25亿美元，同期中国船厂报价3.3亿美元。2022年，美森航运公司在费城造船厂下单订造3 艘3600标箱集装箱船（LNG双燃料），每艘造价约为3.33亿美元 ...

随着特朗普政府全面启动对等关税，世界各国急于与美国进行单独谈判。各国相继提出了降 低从美国进口的关税、扩大购买美国产品等让步方案。美国政府表现出根据谈判情况放宽关 税的态度，为达成交易而展开的竞争在激化。 在对等关税即将全面启动的4月8日，特朗普与韩国代总统韩德洙首次进行了电话磋商。磋商 结束后，特朗普在自己的社交媒体上发文称，"韩国的顶级团队正在前往美国，情况良好"，强 调"其他国家也正在试图进行交易"。 韩国政府透露，韩德洙提议在特朗普视为美国国内制造业复兴象征的造船业和美国产液化天 然气(LNG)出口方面进行合作。已派遣负责贸易的阁僚立即前往美国华盛顿。 特朗普对日本和韩国等同盟国也毫不留情地征收了对等关税。 日本首相石破茂提名经济财政再生相赤泽亮正与负责对日谈判的美国财政部长贝森特对接。 石破茂已派遣外务省和经济产业省的审议官，为正式启动谈判而进行协调。日本计划将扩大 美国产LNG进口等能源和安全保障等作为一揽子政策提出，推进谈判。 美国总统特朗普（资料图，Reuters） 越南表示正在准备协商将从美国进口的关税降至0%，柬埔寨表示下调对美国产食品和汽车等的关 税，印度尼西亚除了扩大小麦和棉花的进口之 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating import tariffs imposed by the United States on various trading partners, particularly focusing on the significant increases in tariffs against China and other countries, which could lead to the highest actual tariff rates in over a century [2][3][6]. Group 1: Tariff Increases - The U.S. has proposed a "reciprocal tariff" plan, imposing tariffs ranging from 20% to 49% on various countries, with a specific 34% tariff on China [2][6]. - If implemented, the actual tariff rate on all U.S. imports could rise from 2.3% at the end of 2024 to approximately 26%, marking a significant increase [2][3]. - The tariffs on China alone could exceed 70% when combined with previous tariffs from 2018, indicating a severe escalation compared to the trade war initiated in 2018 [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The increase in tariffs is expected to exacerbate inflation in the U.S., which is already experiencing high inflation rates, potentially leading to higher consumer prices [9][10]. - The effectiveness of increased tariffs in generating substantial government revenue is questioned, as exporters may reduce shipments to the U.S. if profitability declines [9][10]. - The challenges of revitalizing U.S. manufacturing are highlighted, particularly due to the high labor costs compared to emerging economies, making it difficult to compete effectively [9][10]. Group 3: Global Economic Impact - The trade war initiated by the U.S. is likely to harm not only the U.S. economy but also increase the risk of a global economic recession due to disrupted supply chains and rising transaction costs [10][11]. - Historical context is provided, noting that the current geopolitical tensions and economic disparities have roots in long-standing global dynamics, including the rise of China and the decline of traditional Western powers [11][13]. Group 4: China's Response and Strategy - In response to U.S. tariffs, China has implemented a 34% tariff on all U.S. goods, indicating a restrained approach while leaving room for negotiation [6][22]. - The article emphasizes the need for China to reduce reliance on external demand and focus on domestic consumption to stabilize its economy amid rising tariffs [22][24]. - The shift towards enhancing domestic demand is underscored, with the government prioritizing consumption as a key strategy to counteract the negative effects of tariffs [32][34]. Group 5: Future Economic Strategies - The article suggests that China should strengthen regional alliances and enhance trade cooperation with countries in Southeast Asia and South America to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs [25][29]. - It advocates for a focus on domestic economic reforms, including income redistribution and fiscal policy adjustments to stimulate consumption and support lower-income groups [39][41]. - The potential for monetary policy adjustments, such as interest rate cuts, is discussed as a means to alleviate economic pressures resulting from the trade war [42][44].

（ 转 载请注明出处：微信公众号 lixunlei0722 ） 关税加码背后的深层原因 年初至今，美国对他国的进口关税税率不断加码，尽管关税政策朝令夕改，但税率则超乎想象地往上加。如美方近日 公布的所谓"对等关税"方案，向所有贸易伙伴征收不同水平的关税，拟对中国加征 34% 关税，对欧盟、越南、中国 台湾地区、日本、印度、韩国、泰国、瑞士、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、柬埔寨等贸易伙伴征收 20% 到 49% 不等的 关税，对任何贸易伙伴的最低对等税率也为 10% 。 近年来中国对美顺差的占比已下降 来源： Wind ，中泰证券研究所 为此，我国也采取了向原产于美国的所有商品加征 34% 的进口关税，鉴于美方是在今年对中国加征 20% 关税基础 上再加征 34% 的，说明中方加征的关税属于克制的回应，且留有谈判余地。 特朗普再度当选总统之后，他的施政方略围绕着 MAGA ，即对外加征关税以获得 5000 亿美元以上的关税收入，又 能重振美国的制造业；对内通过政府效率部（ DOGE ）来精简机构、裁减公务员以节省开支、提高效率。同时，限制 移民、国内减税等政策可以起到鼓励投资、保护就业的作用。 特朗普任期与历任总统行政 ...

当然，除了速度和技术，中国造船企业在成本控制方面也是无敌的存在。看看那些面向全球市场的 LNG运输船，中国厂家做到了既便宜又好用。凭借人工成本比日本和韩国低50%的优势，再加上更便宜 的钢材价格，中国企业能够以七折的成本生产出高品质的船只。 眼红了，为对付中国造船厂，美国把自家破绽全公 开 中国造船业霸榜全球！美国疯狂征收服务费，停一次150万 造船业不仅是一门生意，更是国家安全战略的重要支柱。而这场商业与军事实力的比拼，直接关系到两 国在全球地缘政治舞台上的角色定位。 现如今，中国在全球造船市场上的表现就像开启了"加速器"。不论是订单数量还是技术创新，都让人不 得不佩服。即便强如美国，如今也不得不承认自己的造船能力被中国反超。那么，中国的造船厂凭什么 能让世界其他国家甘拜下风？美国为重建造船辉煌，又出了哪些"怪招"？ 1、中国造船业崛起，背后秘诀是什么？ 随着造船业的崛起，中国造船厂化身"拼图达人"，比如为了造一艘46万吨的海上油库，直接将其分成两 大模块同步施工，比传统的方法快了整整十个月。 不仅如此，中国造船厂还把AR技术请到造船现场。工人们只需戴上特制眼镜，那些复杂的电缆走线就 变得清晰可见。这种高科 ...

Summary of Deep Sea Technology and Robotics Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focuses on the **Deep Sea Technology** industry, which has been recognized as a national emerging industry in China's 2025 government work report, indicating increased governmental support and investment opportunities in this sector [2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Government Support**: The inclusion of deep sea technology in the national strategy reflects the government's commitment to the marine power strategy, leading to increased market attention and investment opportunities [2][3]. - **Significant Achievements**: China's deep submergence system has made notable progress with the "Jiaolong" and "Fendouzhe" achieving full coverage, and plans to build an ecological space station in the South China Sea, marking a new phase in deep sea technology [5][6]. - **Economic Growth Driver**: Deep sea technology is seen as a crucial driver for economic growth, facilitating industrial upgrades and innovations, particularly in oil and gas resource development and military capabilities [5][6]. - **Shipbuilding Industry Benefits**: The shipbuilding sector is expected to benefit from deep sea technology advancements, with standardized ship types potentially changing traditional valuation systems and increasing order volumes [13][15]. - **Global Leadership**: China holds a leading position in the global shipbuilding industry, with significant demand for deep sea engineering vessels in resource extraction and infrastructure projects [20][17]. - **Distinction from Low Altitude Economy**: Deep sea technology relies heavily on government investment and is primarily driven by state-owned enterprises, contrasting with the low altitude economy which is more market-oriented [21][22]. - **Rapid Industrialization**: The deep sea industry is expected to progress faster than the low altitude economy due to fewer regulatory hurdles and a more straightforward investment process [22]. Additional Important Insights - **Resource Exploration**: There is a significant potential for deep sea mineral resource exploration, with manganese nodules already showing economic viability [19][23]. - **Technological Advancements**: The development of AI and robotics is anticipated to enhance the efficiency of resource extraction in deep sea environments [19]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Key companies recommended for investment include: - **Changying Tong**: Specializes in underwater communication products, crucial for underwater infrastructure [9]. - **Zhongke Haixun**: Focuses on underwater acoustic equipment, playing a vital role in national defense [10]. - **China Marine Defense**: A state-owned enterprise with a dominant position in underwater equipment [11]. - **Zhongke Xingtou**: Engaged in digital earth research, contributing to marine monitoring [12]. Conclusion - The deep sea technology sector is poised for significant growth driven by government support, technological advancements, and increasing global demand for marine resources. The shipbuilding industry, in particular, stands to benefit from these developments, making it a key area for investment and strategic focus in the coming years.