Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Industry Rotation Strategy Framework **Construction Idea**: Borrowing the analytical framework of stock multi-factor models, constructing industry rotation factors for different industries to identify high-prosperity industries with potential excess returns at each rebalancing date[8] **Construction Process**: Includes basic data processing, single-factor testing, and composite factor synthesis[9] - **Model Name**: Composite Industry Rotation Factor **Construction Idea**: Based on the four dimensions of industry rotation factors, using equal-weighted methods to construct the final composite industry rotation factor[65] **Construction Process**: Standardizing single-view composite factors and combining them equally to form the composite factor. The effectiveness of the composite factor is verified using the single-factor testing framework[13][65] Model Backtesting Results - **Composite Industry Rotation Model**: - IC Mean: 12.54% - ICIR: 50.92% - Annualized Return of High-Prosperity Group: 17.84% - Annualized Excess Return Relative to CSI 800 Index: 14.44%[65][67][68] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods **Basic Fundamental Prosperity Factors** - **Factor Name**: TTM Accounts Receivable Turnover Rate QoQ Growth **Construction Idea**: Reflects the speed and efficiency of recovering receivables, representing the growth in accounts receivable turnover rate[17] **Formula**: $ \text{Industry Accounts Receivable Turnover Rate} = \frac{\sum \text{Individual Stock Revenue}_{TTM}}{\sum \text{Individual Stock Accounts Receivable}_{TTM}} $[17] - **Factor Name**: Reported End-of-Period Current Asset Ratio YoY Growth **Construction Idea**: Measures the proportion of liquid assets in total assets, reflecting financial quality[18] **Formula**: $ \text{Industry Current Asset Ratio} = \frac{\sum \text{Individual Stock Current Assets}_{End-of-Period}}{\sum \text{Individual Stock Total Assets}_{End-of-Period}} $[18] - **Factor Name**: TTM Inventory Turnover Rate YoY Growth **Construction Idea**: Reflects inventory management efficiency and turnover speed[20] **Formula**: $ \text{Industry Inventory Turnover Rate} = \frac{\sum \text{Individual Stock Cost of Goods Sold}_{TTM}}{\sum \text{Individual Stock Inventory}_{TTM}} $[20] **Super Expectation Level Factors** - **Factor Name**: Abnormal Returns Before and After Announcements **Construction Idea**: Measures cumulative excess returns relative to CSI 800 Index before and after earnings announcements[36] **Construction Process**: Calculates cumulative daily excess returns from announcement day (T) to two days after (T+2)[36] - **Factor Name**: Net Profit Expectation Change Score **Construction Idea**: Quantifies changes in analysts' net profit expectations for stocks over the past 60 days[37] **Construction Process**: Scores changes exceeding ±1% and aggregates scores weighted by market capitalization[37] **Volume-Price Level Factors** - **Factor Name**: Intraday Momentum **Construction Idea**: Captures the trend persistence driven by intraday trading funds[45] **Construction Process**: Calculates the ratio of daily closing price to opening price, aggregated over 10 days[45] - **Factor Name**: Overnight Momentum **Construction Idea**: Reflects sentiment-driven changes, showing reversal effects[46] **Construction Process**: Calculates the ratio of opening price to previous closing price, aggregated over 40 days, and reverses the factor value[46] **Capital Flow Intensity Factors** - **Factor Name**: Active Super Large Order Capital Flow Intensity **Construction Idea**: Represents institutional investors' informed trading behavior[58] **Construction Process**: Calculates the average daily net inflow of super large orders over the past 10 days, divided by average market capitalization[58] - **Factor Name**: Small Order Capital Flow Stability **Construction Idea**: Reflects individual investors' activity and stability[61] **Construction Process**: Calculates deviations of small order net inflows from historical averages, standardized across industries[61] Factor Backtesting Results **Basic Fundamental Prosperity Factors** - IC Mean: 5.75% - ICIR: 24.81% - Annualized Return of High-Prosperity Group: 9.56% - Annualized Return of Low-Prosperity Group: -1.74%[31][34] **Super Expectation Level Factors** - IC Mean: 7.31% - ICIR: 28.99% - Annualized Return of High-Prosperity Group: 10.93% - Annualized Return of Low-Prosperity Group: -2.87%[41][42] **Volume-Price Level Factors** - IC Mean: 7.16% - ICIR: 32.98% - Annualized Return of High-Prosperity Group: 8.65% - Annualized Return of Low-Prosperity Group: -1.22%[54][55] **Capital Flow Intensity Factors** - IC Mean: 7.18% - ICIR: 32.10% - Annualized Return of High-Prosperity Group: 13.79% - Annualized Return of Low-Prosperity Group: 1.43%[62][63][64] ETF Industry Rotation Investment Portfolio Construction - **Construction Process**: - High-Prosperity Industry Selection: Selects six industries from the high-prosperity group each month[72] - ETF Selection Framework: Filters ETFs based on correlation, liquidity, and return elasticity, ensuring industry exposure purity and transaction feasibility[70][71] ETF Portfolio Backtesting Results - **Performance Statistics**: - Correlation Priority Mode: Annualized Return 18.78%, Sharpe Ratio 0.85 - Liquidity Priority Mode: Annualized Return 18.57%, Sharpe Ratio 0.80 - Return Elasticity Priority Mode: Annualized Return 21.20%, Sharpe Ratio 0.91[81][80] - **March 2026 Recommended ETF Portfolio**: - **Industries**: Nonferrous Metals, Machinery Equipment, Steel, National Defense, Basic Chemicals, Communication - **ETF Products**: Includes Silver China CSI Nonferrous Metals ETF, Guotai CSI Machine Tool ETF, etc.[83]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report presents the market trends and investment strategies for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs. Each commodity has its own market characteristics and potential trends [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend**: The iron ore market shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak, with a positive spread arbitrage opportunity [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of I2605 was 784.0 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan/ton (- 0.06%), and the position decreased by 5,292 hands. Among spot prices, the price of Super Special (56.5%) decreased by 3.0 yuan/ton, while others remained unchanged. The spread between I2605 - I2609 and I2609 - I2701 both increased slightly [4]. - **News**: In 2025, China imported 570,000 tons of iron ore from Iran, accounting for 0.45% of the total annual imports. The 2026 government work report adjusted the GDP growth target to 4.5% - 5.0%, and the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises decreased by 5.69 million tons [4][5]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Trend**: Both rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2]. - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2605, the closing price was 3,104 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (- 0.42%), and the position decreased by 9,469 hands. For hot - rolled coil HC2605, the closing price was 3,256 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (- 0.18%), and the position decreased by 22,947 hands. Some spot prices decreased slightly [7]. - **News**: In February 2026, the national CPI increased by 1.3% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 0.9% year - on - year. Steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data showed different changes in March [7][8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend**: The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have returned to the oscillation range, and attention should be paid to the fundamentals of production start [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of ferrosilicon 2605 and 2607 were 5876 and 5966 respectively, with different price changes compared to the previous trading day. The spot prices of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia decreased, while the price of manganese ore increased [11]. - **News**: On March 10, the prices of different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions showed different degrees of decline. An Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon plant resumed production of 2 45000kva ferrosilicon furnaces. ARM will participate in the construction of the Ngqura manganese export terminal [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend**: Both coke and coking coal are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of JM2605 was 1121.5 yuan/ton, down 46.5 yuan/ton (- 4.0%), and the closing price of J2605 was 1680.5 yuan/ton, down 59.5 yuan/ton (- 3.4%). Some spot prices of coking coal and coke changed [14]. - **News**: On March 10, the CCI metallurgical coal index of some coking coals in Shanxi decreased. The coking coal online auction had a 5% non - sale rate, and the average premium was 52.13 yuan/ton [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [17]. Thermal Coal - **Trend**: The supply and demand of thermal coal are becoming looser, and coal prices are回调 [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The prices of thermal coal in production areas, ports, and overseas showed different changes, and the long - term agreement price in March increased slightly in some regions [18]. - **News**: On March 10, the market sentiment in the northern ports was average, with weak downstream demand and increasing port inventory. From January to February 2026, the national coal imports reached 77.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5% [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 [19]. Logs - **Trend**: As the conflict sentiment eases, the previous gains have been given back [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different log contracts showed different changes, and most spot prices remained stable [20]. - **News**: The 2026 government work report adjusted the GDP growth target, and Shanghai optimized real estate policies [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - As the policy expectations during the Two Sessions gradually materialize, the black commodities will return to the fundamental logic. The current core contradiction in the market lies in the mismatch between the "reality of high inventory" and the "expectation of peak - season demand." In the short term, whether the intensity of demand recovery can match the supply recovery speed will be the key variable, and the market is expected to be mainly in a range - bound state [1][2] Summaries by Related Catalogs Spot and Basis - For rebar, the spot price and the basis are 116, indicating a bullish situation. For hot - rolled coil, the spot price is 3250 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 6, showing a neutral situation [1][2] Profit and Cost - Not provided in the given content Capacity and Inventory - Rebar: The supply is continuously recovering, and both the steel mill and social inventories are accumulating. The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 6.3775 million tons, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase, presenting a bearish situation. Hot - rolled coil: The social inventory has climbed to the highest level since April 2020, and the inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 3.8161 million tons, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase, also showing a bearish situation [1][2] Rebar Demand and Downstream - Not provided in the given content Hot - Rolled Coil Demand and Downstream - For hot - rolled coil, the downstream consumption volume recovery is still insufficient to digest the high - level inventory, presenting a bearish situation [2] Macro - Not provided in the given content

商 品 研 究 2026 年 3 月 11 日 铁矿石：近强远弱，价差正套 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期 货 | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | -0.5 | -0.06% | | | I2605 | | 784.0 | 昨日持仓（手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | | | | 467,965 | -5,292 | | | | | 昨日价格（元/吨） | 前日价格（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | | | | 卡粉（65%） | 905.0 | 905.0 | 0.0 | | | 进口矿 | PB（61.5%） | 773.0 | 773.0 | 0.0 | | 现货价格 | | 金布巴 （61%） | 725.0 | 725.0 | 0.0 | | | | 超特（56.5%） | 655.0 | 658.0 | -3.0 | | | 国产矿 | 邯邢（66%） | 927.0 | 9 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel futures market showed significant declines followed by narrowing losses on March 10. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate and strengthen in the future, and the 4-year and 10-month downward cycle may have ended, but the rebound path remains unclear [6][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook - **Futures Market**: On March 10, the main contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures 2605 significantly declined and then narrowed their losses. The rebar 2605 contract closed at 3104 yuan/ton, down 0.42%, and the hot-rolled coil 2605 contract closed at 3256 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. The stainless steel 2605 contract closed at 14225 yuan/ton, up 0.82% [5][6] - **Spot Market**: On March 10, the prices of individual rebar and hot-rolled coil spot markets declined. The rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Hefei markets dropped by 10 yuan/ton, and the hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Nanjing, Wuxi, and Guangzhou markets dropped by 10 yuan/ton [8] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily KDJ indicators of the rebar 2605 contract continued to diverge, with the J value falling faster, the K value turning down, and the D value continuing to rise slightly, showing a potential dead cross. The daily KDJ indicators of the hot-rolled coil 2605 contract also diverged, with the J and K values turning down and the D value continuing to rise. The daily MACD red bars of the rebar 2605 contract enlarged for 5 consecutive trading days, and those of the hot-rolled coil 2605 contract enlarged for 2 consecutive trading days [8] - **Future Outlook**: The news first significantly boosted and then negatively affected the expected price of the steel market. Fundamentally, as time passes, the low steel production will conflict with the warming spring demand. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate and strengthen, but the future rebound path is unclear, and investors or operators need to prepare for long-term market fluctuations, especially pay attention to possible changes in the Middle East situation [10][11] 3.2 Industry News - **Coal Transportation**: In the first two months of this year, the "Xinjiang coal to Ningxia" transportation volume exceeded 825,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 356,200 tons, an increase of 76% [12] - **Coal Electricity Capacity Price**: Since January 1, 2026, the coal electricity capacity price standard in Shanxi Province has been adjusted to 165 yuan/kilowatt-year (tax included) [12] - **Steel Company Performance**: In the first three quarters of 2025, Valin Steel achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.72%. The company adheres to a differentiated development strategy and continuously invests in production line improvement and product structure adjustment. The cash dividend and share repurchase and cancellation amount in 2025 accounted for 47.5% of the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 [12][13] - **Foreign Trade Data**: In the first two months of this year, China's total import and export value was 1.09954 trillion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 21.0%. Exports were 656.58 billion US dollars, an increase of 21.8%, and imports were 442.96 billion US dollars, an increase of 19.8%. From January to February 2026, China's cumulative steel exports were 15.591 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%, and cumulative steel imports were 827,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21.7%. Cumulative imports of iron ore and its concentrates were 210.023 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.0%, and cumulative imports of coal and lignite were 77.222 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [13] - **Coal Export in Australia**: In February 2026, the total coal export volume of the three major terminals in North Queensland, Australia, was 8.7451 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.53% but a year-on-year increase of 36.94% [13] - **Energy - Saving Measures**: Thailand will require most government agencies to work from home, and the Philippines has implemented a four - day work arrangement to save energy [13] - **Russian Gas Supply**: Russia plans to redirect some of its liquefied natural gas supplies to other markets before the EU import ban takes effect [13] - **Shipping Market**: Last week, about 24 oil tankers signed time charter orders, the highest since May 2020. The one - year charter rate of supertankers reached a record high of 176,250 US dollars per day. The benchmark revenue of very large crude carriers on the Middle East - China route in the spot market reached 476,754 US dollars per day. It is expected that there will be a 15% excess of shipping capacity in the Middle East in the next month [13] - **Coal Price**: The Asian benchmark Newcastle coal futures price jumped about 9.3% on March 9, reaching the 150 US dollars/ton mark, the highest since November 2024. The Rotterdam coal price in the European market rose about 13% to 119.50 US dollars/ton on March 2, a 52 - week high [14] - **Mongolian Iron Ore Export**: In February 2026, Mongolia's iron ore export volume was 586,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.34% but a month-on-month decrease of 16.47%, the lowest since March 2025 [14] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the social inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coil in major cities, the spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in major markets, the weekly output and steel mill inventory of five major steel products, the blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai rebar and hot-rolled coil spot and May contracts [18][21][22][25][32][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Crude oil and coking coal prices have fallen, causing steel prices to rise and then fall. Steel mill production remains stable, inventory is seasonally decreasing, and apparent demand is rising. It is necessary to focus on the height of the rebound in apparent demand. The government work report of the Two Sessions is basically in line with expectations, and the domestic demand expectation does not fluctuate much. The main focus is on the marginal changes in steel exports. Since the US - Iran conflict, steel exports have declined due to shipping disruptions. It is judged that steel prices will fluctuate within a range, with attention paid to the pressure levels of around 3150 yuan/ton for rebar and 3300 yuan/ton for hot - rolled coils [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The main iron ore contract oscillated upward yesterday. Affected by the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, the iron ore market fluctuated more violently. In the short term, positive factors for iron ore are dominant, and geopolitical conflicts will further intensify market fluctuations. In terms of fundamentals, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased this period, and the decline in Brazil and non - mainstream regions was significant. On the demand side, hot - rolled coil inventory pressure is prominent. In the short term, iron ore prices will be boosted by geopolitical impacts and the unresolved BHP negotiation, and prices may fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to observe in the short term [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Yesterday, coke and coking coal futures both showed a downward trend from high levels. For coke, the first round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills was successfully implemented on March 6 and is expected to stabilize. The supply - demand situation is basically balanced in the short term. For coking coal, the price of coke was cut by mainstream steel mills on March 4 to reduce costs, and it is expected that the coke price will stabilize. In terms of strategies, it is recommended to view both coke and coking coal as oscillating, with a reference range of 1650 - 1850 for coke and 1100 - 1250 for coking coal, and to consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [7]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese Industry - Yesterday, the silicon iron main contract fell sharply, and the silicon manganese main contract opened low and then recovered losses, both affected by geopolitical conflicts. For silicon iron, supply decreased slightly last week, with output cuts in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia and increases in Qinghai and Gansu. For silicon manganese, supply decreased slightly, and the output absolute value is at a relatively low level in the same period of history. In terms of demand, iron - making water output decreased significantly during the Two Sessions but is expected to rise with the recovery of terminal demand. In the short term, steel exports to the Middle East will be blocked, but there may be an export substitution effect in the long term. It is recommended to observe the market and operate cautiously [8]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in different regions (East China, North China, South China) and futures contract prices (05, 10, 01) showed different degrees of changes, with some prices remaining stable and some falling. Hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices also decreased to varying degrees [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices remained unchanged, and the costs and profits of different steel products in different regions (such as Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar cost, East China hot - rolled coil profit) changed. For example, the East China hot - rolled coil profit increased by 30, and the North China hot - rolled coil profit increased by 40 [1]. Production - The total output of five major steel products increased slightly by 0.1%, with an increase in electric - furnace output by 349.6% and a decrease in converter output by 0.5%. The hot - rolled coil output decreased by 2.7% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 5.7%, the rebar inventory increased by 9.4%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 4.3% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 27.7%, while the apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 22.4%, the apparent demand for rebar increased by 192.8%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 4.9% [1]. Iron - making Water Output - The daily average iron - making water output decreased by 2.4% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of different iron ore varieties (such as Carajás fines, PB fines) and the basis of 05 contracts showed different degrees of changes. The 5 - 9 spread and 9 - 1 spread also increased [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of some iron ore varieties at Rizhao Port remained stable, while the price of Brazilian mixed fines increased by 0.4%. The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price increased by 1.0% [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 21.6%, the global shipment volume decreased by 13.3%, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 18.4% [4]. Demand - The daily average iron - making water output of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.4%, the 45 - port daily average ore - evacuation volume increased by 4.2%, the national monthly pig iron output decreased by 2.6%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 2.4% [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 0.2%, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.8%, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of different coke varieties (such as Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke, Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke) and futures contracts (05, 09) decreased to varying degrees. The coking profit increased by 24 [7]. Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) remained stable, while the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) decreased by 3.9% [7]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.5%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2%. The output of raw coal and clean coal in Fenwei sample coal mines increased [7]. Demand - The iron - making water output of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.4% [7]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 0.5%, the coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.3%, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6%, and the port inventory increased by 3.0%. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased, while the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants, 247 steel mills, and ports decreased [7]. Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap increased from - 1.6 to 0.7, an increase of 2.3 [7]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese Industry Futures and Spot - The silicon iron main contract price increased slightly, and the silicon manganese main contract price decreased. The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions decreased to varying degrees [8]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions changed slightly, and the production profits decreased significantly. For example, the production profit of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia decreased from 200 to 30, a decrease of 85.0% [8]. Supply - The manganese ore shipment volume increased by 57.6%, the arrival volume increased by 1.8%, and the port inventory decreased by 4.6%. The silicon iron output decreased by 2.1%, and the production enterprise's start - up rate decreased by 6.3% [8]. Demand - The silicon iron demand remained unchanged, the 247 - steel - mill daily average iron - making water output decreased by 2.4%, the blast - furnace start - up rate decreased by 3.1%, the output of five major steel products increased by 0.1%, and the silicon manganese demand increased by 0.9% [8]. Inventory Changes - The silicon iron inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 5.9%, and the silicon manganese inventory of 63 sample enterprises decreased by 2.8% [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the Iran - US conflict, global risk preferences are disturbed, with rising oil prices, weakened Fed rate - cut expectations, and a rapid rise in US Treasury yields. The domestic two - sessions continue moderately loose monetary and more active fiscal policies. Attention should be paid to the war situation and risk control [4]. - The economic recovery's sustainability needs observation, and there is still room for loose monetary policy. The Iran geopolitical conflict and rising inflation may put pressure on the bond market, and the bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [7]. - Gold prices are in a narrow - range shock. Geopolitics boosts gold and silver prices in the short - term, but inflation expectations and weak US economic data suppress precious metal prices. A cautious bearish view is taken on precious metals [9]. - Due to the Middle East war, copper prices are expected to rise in the short - term, aluminum prices are expected to remain strong, zinc prices may break downward, lead prices are expected to stop falling and recover, nickel prices will fluctuate, tin prices will fluctuate widely, lithium carbonate prices will fluctuate in a range, alumina prices will fluctuate widely, stainless steel prices will rise in a shock, and casting aluminum alloy prices will remain strong [12][14][16][17][18][20][21][24][25][27]. - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, iron ore prices will fluctuate, coking coal and coke prices may fluctuate or slightly rebound in the short - term and are optimistic in the long - term, glass prices will fluctuate in a range, soda ash prices will fluctuate with the coal - chemical industry, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices may have short - term rebound opportunities, and industrial silicon and polysilicon prices will fluctuate [30][32][35][38][39][40][43][46][48]. - Rubber trading should be flexible, crude oil has a bearish strategic configuration, methanol should take profit at high prices, urea should be short - allocated, pure benzene and styrene should be observed on the sidelines, PVC may rebound in the short - term, ethylene glycol may have inventory reduction expectations, PTA may have valuation increase space, PX has a good medium - term pattern, polyethylene can be short - sold on rallies, and polypropylene's long - term contradiction shifts to production mismatch [54][56][58][60][62][64][66][68][72][74][77]. - Pig prices may remain weakly stable in the short - term, egg prices may be stable with partial narrow - range adjustments, soybean and rapeseed meal prices should be observed on the sidelines in the short - term, oil prices are bullish in the medium - term, sugar prices may rebound, and cotton prices may rise if downstream starts up well [80][82][85][87][91][93]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance Stock Index - **Market Information**: Iran's parliamentary speaker says no cease - fire is sought, Trump says conditional negotiation with Iran is possible; the National Internet Emergency Center issues a risk warning for OpenClaw; storage chips and precious metals rise, and some car companies try to raise prices; Industrial Foshan's 2025 revenue is 902.887 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 48.22%, and net profit is 35.286 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 51.99% [2]. - **Basis Annualized Ratio**: IF: 6.96%/5.44%/8.68%/6.49%; IC: 6.01%/5.89%/11.20%/8.33%; IM: 13.22%/9.71%/16.30%/11.40%; IH: 0.44%/0.43%/1.63%/3.34% [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the war situation and control risks [4]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts have different changes; China's January - February exports and imports increase, and the trade surplus is 213.62 billion US dollars; Middle East oil production cuts up to 6.7 million barrels per day; the central bank conducts 3.85 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 52 million yuan [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The economic recovery's sustainability needs observation, and the bond market may be pressured by inflation. It is expected to continue to fluctuate [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver rise; US API crude oil inventory is lower than expected, and US non - farm payrolls decrease; Trump and Iran's parliamentary speaker have different stances on negotiation and cease - fire, and Iran may lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Gold prices are in a narrow - range shock. Geopolitics and inflation expectations affect prices. A cautious bearish view is taken, with Shanghai gold's reference range of 1100 - 1200 yuan/gram and Shanghai silver's of 20500 - 23000 yuan/kilogram [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Crude oil and precious metals rise, driving up copper prices. LME and domestic warehouse inventories change, and the spot basis changes [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Middle East war provides emotional support. The copper supply is tight, and prices are expected to rise in the short - term. The reference range for Shanghai copper is 100800 - 102800 yuan/ton, and for LME copper is 12900 - 13300 US dollars/ton [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Crude oil fluctuates, LME aluminum's cancelled warrants increase, and aluminum prices rise. Warehouse inventories and spot basis change [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Middle East war affects supply, and domestic downstream production resumes. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong. The reference range for Shanghai aluminum is 24600 - 25800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum is 3350 - 3500 US dollars/ton [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rise slightly. Warehouse inventories and basis change [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc industry is weak, and the Iran conflict has little impact on supply. Zinc prices may break downward and will fluctuate widely [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices fall. Warehouse inventories and basis change [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Lead production and demand are weak, but prices are at the lower end of the shock range. They are expected to stop falling and recover [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rise slightly. Spot premiums and raw material prices change [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the medium - term, nickel prices are supported by policies. In the short - term, they will fluctuate. The reference range for Shanghai nickel is 120000 - 160000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel is 16000 - 20000 US dollars/ton [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rise. Supply is tight, and demand is in the recovery stage [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is bullish on tin, but supply and demand are marginally loose. Tin prices will fluctuate widely. The reference range for domestic tin is 370000 - 450000 yuan/ton, and for overseas tin is 47000 - 54000 US dollars/ton [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: Lithium carbonate prices rise. Spot and futures prices change [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Iran situation eases, and the lithium market may range - fluctuate. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 150000 - 175000 yuan/ton [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices fall. Warehouse inventories and basis change [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Over - inventory and supply factors suppress prices. They will fluctuate widely. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2700 - 3000 yuan/ton [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices rise. Spot prices and warehouse inventories change [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Market purchasing warms up, and prices are expected to rise in a shock. The reference range for the main contract is 13800 - 14500 yuan/ton [25]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Casting aluminum alloy prices rise slightly. Warehouse inventories and contract spreads change [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Cost and demand factors support prices, which are expected to remain strong [27]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices fall. Warehouse inventories and positions change [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Steel prices will fluctuate weakly in the short - term. The key lies in inventory digestion and demand verification [30]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices fall slightly. Warehouse inventories and basis change [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Overseas supply is volatile, and demand is weak. Prices will fluctuate in the short - term [32]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: Coking coal and coke prices fall. Spot prices and basis change [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short - term, prices may fluctuate or slightly rebound. In the long - term, they are optimistic [35][38]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: Glass prices fall. Warehouse inventories and positions change [39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Demand improves slightly, and prices will fluctuate in a range. The reference range for the main contract is 1040 - 1130 yuan/ton [39]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: Soda ash prices fall. Warehouse inventories and positions change [40]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is in a wait - and - see state, and prices will fluctuate with the coal - chemical industry. The reference range for the main contract is 1200 - 1300 yuan/ton [40]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon prices fall, and ferrosilicon prices rise slightly. Spot prices and basis change [41]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Middle East war affects market sentiment. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon may have short - term rebound opportunities [43]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices fall. Warehouse inventories and basis change [45]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply and demand may increase in March, and prices will fluctuate or rebound [46]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: Polysilicon prices fall. Warehouse inventories and basis change [47]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply and demand increase, but inventory reduction is limited. Prices will fluctuate [48]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Crude oil and butadiene prices fall, affecting rubber prices. Tire production and inventory change [50][51]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Trade flexibly and set stop - losses. Consider buying NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [54]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined oil prices fall [55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a bearish strategic configuration, do long - short operations on different oil spreads [56]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices change. Spot and futures prices change [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Take profit at high prices [58]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices change. Spot and futures prices change [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - allocate urea [60]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene prices fall, and styrene prices rise. Supply, demand, and basis change [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Observe on the sidelines [62]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices fall. Cost, supply, demand, and inventory change [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Prices may rebound in the short - term, but beware of risks [64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices fall. Supply, demand, and inventory change [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply may decrease, and inventory may reduce. Be cautious of over - rising [66]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices fall. Supply, demand, and inventory change [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA may not enter a de - stocking cycle. Valuation may rise, but beware of over - rising [68]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: PX prices fall. Supply, demand, and inventory change [70][71]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PX will enter a de - stocking cycle in March. Valuation may rise, but beware of over - rising [72]. Polyethylene PE - **Market Information**: PE prices fall. Supply, demand, and inventory change [73]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - sell on rallies for the LL2605 - LL2609 contract [74]. Polypropylene PP - **Market Information**: PP prices fall. Supply, demand, and inventory change [75]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The long - term contradiction shifts to production mismatch [77]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices vary. Market supply and demand change [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Pig prices may remain weakly stable in the short - term. Short - sell on rallies for the near - term and observe the far - term [80]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices vary. Market supply and demand change [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Egg prices may be stable with partial narrow - range adjustments. Short - sell on rallies for the near - term and pay attention to cost support for the far - term [82]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: Soybean import and production data change [83][84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Observe on the sidelines in the short - term [85]. Oils - **Market Information**: Indonesia may restart the B50 policy, and palm oil production, export, and inventory data change [86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Bullish in the medium - term [87]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar production data in different countries change [88][90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Sugar prices may rebound. Participate in long positions on dips [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton production, export, and inventory data change [92]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Pay attention to downstream start - up. Buy on dips [93].

黑色建材日报 2026-03-11 黑色建材组 陈张滢 【策略观点】 昨日商品市场价格振幅加剧，成材价格整体延续震荡格局。宏观方面，美国总统特朗普表示，对伊朗的战 争"差不多已经结束"，商品情绪阶段性释放。基本面方面，本周热卷需求出现回落，恢复节奏明显弱于 季节性水平。尽管产量有所下降，但库存仍持续累积，整体库存水平偏高，基本面表现偏弱；螺纹钢方面， 随着开工逐步恢复，供需同步回升，但当前库存累积速度偏快，仍需进一步观察旺季需求的实际恢复情况。 综合来看，当前黑色系基本面较节前预期明显偏弱，短期核心矛盾仍在于库存消化与需求验证。在旺季真 实需求尚未得到确认之前，价格难言趋势性反转，大概率仍将维持区间震荡偏弱运行。后续需重点关注工 地复工率以及水泥、建材日耗等高频指标的变化。 铁矿石 【行情资讯】 昨日铁矿石主力合约（I2605）收至 784.00 元/吨，涨跌幅-0.06 %（-0.50），持仓变化-5292 手，变化 至 46.80 万手。铁矿石加权持仓量 87.03 万手。现货青岛港 PB 粉 773 元/湿吨，折盘面基差 36.72 元/ 吨，基差率 4.47%。 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Not specified [6] - Silver: Not specified [7] - Copper: Not specified [10] - Zinc: Not specified [13] - Lead: Not specified [17] - Tin: Not specified [20] - Aluminum: Positive [24] - Alumina: Negative [24] - Cast aluminum alloy: Positive [24] - Platinum: Not specified [26] - Palladium: Not specified [27] - Nickel: Not specified [31] - Stainless steel: Not specified [31] - Lithium carbonate: Not specified [39] - Industrial silicon: Not specified [44] - Polysilicon: Not specified [45] - Iron ore: Positive [48] - Rebar: Not specified [51] - Hot-rolled coil: Not specified [51] - Ferrosilicon: Not specified [55] - Manganese silicon: Not specified [55] - Coke: Not specified [58] - Coking coal: Not specified [58] - Steam coal: Negative [62] - Logs: Not specified [64] - p-Xylene: Negative [68] - PTA: Negative [68] - MEG: Negative [68] - Rubber: Positive [73] - Synthetic rubber: Not specified [76] - LLDPE: Positive [79] - PP: Positive [79] - Caustic soda: Negative [83] - Pulp: Not specified [87] - Glass: Positive [93] - Methanol: Negative [96] - Urea: Negative [102] - Styrene: Positive [107] - Soda ash: Positive [109] - LPG: Positive [113] - Propylene: Positive [113] - PVC: Negative [121] - Fuel oil: Negative [124] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Negative [124] - Container shipping index (European line): Not specified [126] - Short fiber: Not specified [141] - Bottle chip: Not specified [141] - Offset printing paper: Not specified [145] - Pure benzene: Positive [150] - Palm oil: Not specified [154] - Soybean oil: Not specified [154] - Soybean meal: Positive [162] - Soybean: Not specified [162] - Corn: Not specified [165] - Sugar: Not specified [170] - Cotton: Positive [175] - Eggs: Not specified [180] - Live pigs: Negative [183] - Peanuts: Not specified [188] Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. It assesses the supply and demand, price trends, and market sentiment of each commodity [2][7][10]. - Geopolitical conflicts, such as the situation in the Middle East, have a significant impact on the commodity market, especially on energy and precious metals [7][9][14]. - The macroeconomic environment, including GDP growth, inflation, and trade policies, also affects the commodity market [48][51][66]. Summaries by Directory Precious Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts break out, and the price is affected by factors such as the US dollar index and geopolitical risks [6][7]. - **Silver**: Attention should be paid to liquidity contraction, and the price is influenced by factors such as gold price and industrial demand [7]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Platinum follows the fluctuations of gold and silver, while palladium fails to break through and remains sluggish [26][27]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The narrowing of the domestic spot discount supports the price, and the supply and demand situation and macro - economic environment have an impact on it [10]. - **Zinc**: It shows a range - bound oscillation, affected by factors such as inventory and supply - demand balance [13]. - **Lead**: The increase in domestic inventory exerts downward pressure on the price [17]. - **Tin**: It is in an oscillatory adjustment state [20]. - **Aluminum**: It remains relatively strong, while alumina returns to the fundamentals, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [24]. - **Nickel**: Tight supply at the mine end supports the current situation, but the accumulation of smelting inventory limits its upward potential. Stainless steel is affected by macro - risk preferences, and the cost center moves up [31]. Energy - **Crude oil - related products**: The situation in the Middle East affects the supply and price of energy products. For example, the conflict in the Middle East leads to supply disruptions and price fluctuations of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil [124]. - **Coal**: Steam coal shows a trend of supply - demand relaxation and price decline [62]. Chemicals - **p - Xylene, PTA, and MEG**: They follow the cost - end adjustment, and the month - spread shows an inverse arbitrage trend [68]. - **Rubber**: It shows an oscillatory and upward - biased trend, affected by factors such as tire industry demand and raw material prices [73]. - **Synthetic rubber**: It fluctuates with energy prices and shows a high - level wide - range oscillation [76]. - **LLDPE and PP**: Geopolitical uncertainties lead to supply contractions, and the upstream start - up rate decreases [79]. - **Caustic soda**: It returns to the fundamentals, and the market is under short - term pressure [83]. - **Methanol and Urea**: They experience a high - level decline, affected by factors such as energy prices and market sentiment [96][102]. - **Styrene and Pure benzene**: They are expected to be strong, affected by factors such as supply reduction and downstream demand [107][150]. - **Soda ash**: The spot market changes little, and the price may be stable with an upward bias [109]. - **Propylene**: The cost - end is affected by geopolitical factors, and the supply is expected to decrease [113]. - **PVC**: It returns to the fundamentals, and the market is under short - term pressure due to factors such as high supply and weak demand [121]. Agricultural Products - **Palm oil and Soybean oil**: Palm oil experiences high - level volatile fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the impact of crude oil. Soybean oil is supported by the cost of US soybeans and shows a short - term high - level oscillation [154]. - **Soybean meal and Soybean**: The USDA report is slightly bullish, and the soybean meal futures price is strong. The trade of soybean grains fails to be sold at auction, and the market turns to a wait - and - see attitude [162]. - **Corn**: It shows an oscillatory operation [165]. - **Sugar**: It mainly shows a range - bound consolidation [170]. - **Cotton**: It is waiting for new driving factors [175]. - **Eggs**: They maintain an oscillatory state [180]. - **Live pigs**: The spot market accumulates inventory passively and shows a continuous decline [183]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the impact of the macro - environment [188]. Shipping - **Container shipping index (European line)**: It is dominated by geopolitical sentiment, and the price fluctuation is amplified. The supply and demand situation, freight rates, and cost factors all affect its price [126].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US-Iran situation is gradually becoming clear, and the time of the most intense war has passed, but the subsequent long - tail effect still needs attention. The rebound of global risk assets has driven the repair of stock index futures, and the long - position strategy of stock index futures can gradually increase positions [21]. - If the war can end quickly, the negative impact on the bond market from inflation will be significantly weakened, and there are not many negative factors in March, while negative factors will gradually accumulate in Q2 [25][26]. - The US private credit market may face a liquidity shock, and the US dollar index will maintain a volatile trend in the short term [15][16]. - The US stock market is under downward pressure due to the uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz and concerns about stagflation, and it is expected to operate weakly in a volatile manner in the short term [19]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by multiple factors, including geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. Different commodities have different investment suggestions, such as paying attention to buying opportunities on dips for some commodities and maintaining a wait - and - see attitude for others [22][26][35] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US existing - home sales in February 2026 were 4.09 million units, with a month - on - month increase of 1.7%. Trump signaled a willingness to end the war, but the situation in the Middle East remains uncertain. The short - term trend of precious metals is volatile, and the Middle East situation disturbs the market [10][11][12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - A credit fund with an asset size of $33 billion is facing a redemption of over 7%. The US private credit market may face a liquidity shock, and the US dollar index will maintain a volatile trend in the short term [13][15][16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran continues to escalate. The US Energy Information Administration has raised the forecast of US oil production next year. The short - term situation in the Strait of Hormuz is uncertain, the US stock market is facing downward pressure, and it is expected to operate weakly in a volatile manner in the short term, with a wait - and - see attitude recommended [17][18][19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Shanghai Stock Exchange is researching and reserving a series of policies to support science and innovation. China's imports and exports in the first two months achieved good results. Trump said the war would end soon, driving the repair of the stock index. The long - position strategy of stock index futures can gradually increase positions [20][21][22]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's import and export data in the first two months exceeded expectations. The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 39.5 billion yuan. If the war ends soon, there are not many negative factors for the bond market in March, while negative factors will gradually accumulate in Q2 [23][25][26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The Mongolian imported coking coal market is running strongly, but the terminal's acceptance of high - priced coal is limited. With the weakening of crude oil trading sentiment, attention should be paid to downstream replenishment [27][28][29]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China's automobile exports increased in the first two months, while steel exports decreased. The steel price may be in a volatile pattern in the short term, and a volatile thinking is recommended [30][31][32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - China's soybean imports in the first two months decreased slightly. The USDA report only slightly adjusted the global soybean supply and demand. The short - term trend of soybean meal may be strongly volatile, but its supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and blind chasing of the rise is not recommended [33][34][35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The US corn exports to China were zero in a certain week. The supply and demand of corn are in a multi - factor game situation. In the short term, the market is volatile, and in the medium and long term, the price is expected to stabilize and rebound [36][37][38]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports increased in the first 10 days of March, and the inventory decreased in February. The short - term market is affected by the Iranian situation, and attention should be paid to the export recovery of Malaysian palm oil and Indonesia's biodiesel policy [39][40][42]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - India's sugar production in a certain state increased, and Brazil's sugar exports decreased in the first week of March. The market's expectation of global sugar supply surplus has decreased, and the short - term trend of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be volatile at a low level [43][44][46]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - The sales volume of some pig companies increased in February, while the sales revenue of some decreased. The pig market is under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to short the near - month contract on rebounds and pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities in the long term [47][48][49]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange issued an announcement on the lithium carbonate futures contract. A trading company signed a lithium purchase agreement. The short - term demand for lithium carbonate is supported, and attention should be paid to buying opportunities on dips [50][51][53]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The price of platinum rebounded slightly, and the price of palladium was mainly volatile. The short - term trend of platinum and palladium is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on platinum and shorting on palladium in the medium term [54][55]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The price of lead is expected to be volatile at a low level in the short term, and attention should be paid to buying opportunities on pullbacks [56][57][58]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The price of zinc is running cautiously, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and maintain the idea of positive arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets in the medium term [59][60]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - China's copper imports showed different trends in the first two months. Mongolia is seeking to renegotiate the copper mine contract. The short - term trend of copper is expected to bottom out and rebound, and it is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities on dips and positive arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [61][63][65]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - The short - term supply - demand pattern of tin is weak, and it is expected to operate in a wide - range volatile manner, with limited downward space [66][67][68]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The EIA maintained the forecast of US crude oil production in 2026. An oil refinery in the UAE was attacked. The risk premium of oil prices has declined, and the market has returned to pricing the short - term blockade of the Strait of Hormuz [69][70][71]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The price of LPG is expected to fluctuate widely due to the impact of the Iranian situation and supply reduction [72][73]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The price of CEA is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, and enterprises with demand can consider buying on dips [73][74][75]. 3.2.17 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The transportation department约谈ed shipping companies. The European line futures are mainly in a wide - range volatile pattern, and it is expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the price adjustment of high - price shipping companies in late March [76][77][78].