瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.20」 玉米类市场周报 玉米现货涨势收窄 盘面维持高位震荡 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 取 更 多 资 讯 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 Ø 策略建议：短线交易为主。 3 Ø 玉米： Ø 行情回顾：本周玉米期货窄幅震荡。主力2509合约收盘价为2409元/吨，较前一周+5元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：美国农业部(USDA)在每周作物生长报告中公布称，截至2025年6月15日当周，美国玉 米优良率为72%，高于市场预期的71%，前一周为71%,上年同期为72%。美玉米优良率向好，且 中美原则上达成框架协议，贸易关系有所缓和，市场忧虑远期进口压力。国内方面，国内主产区 存粮不断减少支撑贸易商挺价惜售情绪强，加之托市收购稳价新麦购销升温，基层玉米上量持续 降低，企业库存不断消耗，收购价格继续偏强，但小麦替代效应以及进口玉米投放预期冲击，玉 米价格上涨势头有所放缓。 ...

Group 1 - The core activity involves a live streaming anniversary event organized by Beidahuang Agricultural Co., Ltd. and Hulin E-commerce Center to promote agricultural products and enhance consumer engagement [1] - The live stream showcased the growth of rice crops and the advantages of local agricultural resources, with hosts interacting with viewers and offering promotions [2] - The collaboration aims to deepen the integration of agriculture, culture, and tourism, attracting viewers to consider visiting the production site [2] Group 2 - The e-commerce hosts emphasized the importance of sharing high-quality agricultural products and providing a satisfying shopping experience for consumers [2] - The live streaming format serves as a platform for storytelling about the brand "Qingzhen," aiming to connect consumers with the agricultural process and the dedication of farmers [2]

农产品日报 | 2025-06-19 苹果库内货源不多，红枣到货减少 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2510合约7650元/吨，较前一日变动-2元/吨，幅度-0.03%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一二 级晚富士价格4.10元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+550，较前一日变动+2；陕西洛川70# 以上半 商品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+1950，较前一日变动+2。 近期市场资讯，苹果市场库内交易不温不火，客商拿货积极性不高，产区新季苹果套袋工作陆续收尾。西部产区 客商货源找货热度不高，个别冷库货源出现水烂点等质量问题，持货商整体惜售情绪减弱；山东产区大果及好果 走货一般，客商寻货不积极。销区市场市场走货一般，消暑类水果存在一定冲击。陕西洛川产区目前库内70#起步 果农统货4.2-4.5元/斤，70#起步半商品4.5-5.0元/斤，以质论价。 山东栖霞产区果农三级2.5-3元/斤，果农80#以上 统货3-3.5元/斤，80#一二级条纹4.0-4.5元/斤，80#一二级片红3.8-4.0元/斤。 市场分析 昨日苹果期价收跌， ...

油料日报 | 2025-06-19 美豆优良率小幅下滑，大豆价格震荡运行 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2507合约4258.00元/吨，较前日变化+11.00元/吨，幅度+0.26%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A07-78，较前日变化-11，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：周二，芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)大豆期货收盘温和上涨，其中基准期约收高0.4%，主要受到原油 价格上涨和未来几周中西部天气不确定性的支撑。截至收盘，大豆期货上涨4.25美分到8.75美分不等，其中7月期 约上涨4.25美分，报收1074美分/蒲;8月期约上涨4.50美分，报收1076.25美分/蒲;11月期约上涨7.25美分，报收1067.75 美分/蒲。6月18日，黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.09元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭 山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.12元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白 39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.12元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报 价2.22元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking. It presents data on various commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and crude oil, as well as international and domestic supply - demand situations and macroeconomic indicators. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Quotes - Overnight quotes are presented for multiple commodities including palm oil, Brent crude, WTI crude, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil, along with their closing prices, previous - day and overnight price changes [1]. - Quotes for multiple currencies are also provided, including the US dollar index, RMB, Malaysian ringgit, Indonesian rupiah, Brazilian real, Argentine peso, and Singapore dollar, along with their latest prices and price changes [1]. 02 Spot Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes for DCE palm oil 2509, DCE soybean oil 2509, and DCE soybean meal 2509 in different regions are given [2]. - CNF quotes and CNF premium changes for imported soybeans from different origins are presented [2]. 03 Important Fundamental Information Weather Forecast - The temperature in most major soybean - producing states in the US from June 22 - 26 will be higher than normal, and precipitation will be close to or higher than the median [3]. - There will be sporadic showers in parts of the US Midwest, and field operations in the southern region may be hindered. The temperature will be close to or higher than normal [5]. International Supply - Demand - Malaysia's palm oil production in May increased by 5.05% month - on - month to 1.77 million tons, and exports soared by 25.62% to 1.38 million tons. Short - term production may slow down, and June production is expected to decrease [7][8]. - A private exporter reported selling 120,000 tons of soybean meal to an unknown destination for delivery in the 2025/2026 season [8]. - Due to frequent spring rainfall, some soybean fields in Arkansas may not be planted, and re - planting of some soybeans is uncertain [8]. - Brazil's expected soybean exports in June are 14.37 million tons, soybean meal exports are 1.97 million tons, and corn exports are 913,316 tons [8]. - The soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso state from June 9 - 13 was 515.08 Brazilian reals per ton [9]. - As of June 15, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2024/2025 season were 2.74 million tons, soybeans were 13.58 million tons, and rapeseed was 6.91 million tons [9]. - France's 2025 winter barley and rapeseed production is expected to rebound strongly, with rapeseed production reaching 4.2 million tons, a 9.4% increase from 2024 [9]. - On Tuesday, the Baltic Dry Index declined due to lower freight rates for large vessels [10]. Domestic Supply - Demand - On June 17, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 17,560 tons, a 55% decrease from the previous trading day [12]. - On June 17, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 219,900 tons, and the operating rate of oil mills was 67.08%, up 5.25% from the previous day [12]. - As of June 17, the port inventory of soybean oil in China was 780,000 tons, a 15,000 - ton increase from the previous week [12]. - The average prices of piglets, live pigs, and soybean meal in China decreased compared to the previous week and the same period last year [12]. - On June 17, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" remained unchanged, and the average pork price in the agricultural product wholesale market decreased by 0.7% [13]. 04 Macro News International News - The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in June is 97.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 2.7% [15]. - The US NAHB Housing Market Index in June was 32, lower than the expected 36 [15]. - The US industrial production in May decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, and retail sales decreased by 0.9% month - on - month [15]. - Other US economic indicators such as import price index, red - book retail sales, commercial inventory, API crude oil inventory, and the eurozone ZEW economic sentiment index are also provided [19]. Domestic News - On June 17, the USD/RMB exchange rate was lowered by 43 points [17]. - On June 17, the People's Bank of China conducted 197.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 183.3 billion yuan [17]. 05 Fund Flows - On June 17, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 3.222 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 4.602 billion yuan in the commodity futures market and a net inflow of 1.381 billion yuan in the stock index futures market [21]. - The fund flows of major futures varieties are presented, with positive flows in some commodities like CSI 1000 stock index futures and rapeseed oil, and negative flows in others like gold and copper [20]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future outlook of corn and soybean production in China, particularly focusing on the supply changes and market price trends due to trade disruptions and local agricultural conditions [2]. Research Background - The article emphasizes the need to understand the supply changes of corn and soybeans during their growing season, as they are staple crops in China. It highlights the importance of assessing planting areas, cost changes, and inventory levels among traders and processing enterprises to predict future market prices [2]. Survey Overview - A survey was conducted in Heilongjiang Province involving over 17 participants from various sectors, including spot trading and private equity, to gather insights on the planting and growth conditions of corn and soybeans [5]. Key Findings from the Survey - The processing capacity of a major soybean processing enterprise is 1,000 tons per day, with an annual processing volume of approximately 300,000 tons. The yield from one unit of soybeans is about 80%-80.5% soybean meal and 16%-16.5% soybean oil, with a loss of 3%-4% due to impurities [7]. - Current soybean prices are around 4,100 CNY per ton, with expectations that prices will remain stable in the third quarter. The planting area for soybeans is expected to increase slightly due to supportive policies, despite low profitability [8][10]. - In the Suifenhe area, the average yield for soybeans last year was 360-370 jin per mu, while corn was 1,600-1,700 jin per mu. This year, planting costs have decreased due to lower land rents, with a significant drop in rental prices observed [9]. Market Outlook - The processing enterprise anticipates that soybean prices will fluctuate around 4,100 CNY per ton in the third quarter, with cautious operational plans due to uncertain demand [8]. - The expected opening price for new season soybeans is around 2.05 CNY per jin, but demand may not be sufficient to sustain high prices [10]. - The survey indicates that corn prices may rise due to supply tightening, while soybean prices may follow a high-open, low-close trend similar to last year [10]. Regional Insights - In the Beidahuang area, the planting area for soybeans remains stable, with a focus on high-protein varieties. The average yield for soybeans is reported at 450 jin per mu, with corn yields at 1,800 jin per mu [14][15]. - The planting area for soybeans has increased by 10% in some regions, while corn has decreased by 10%. The overall planting conditions are favorable, with expectations of good yields if weather conditions improve [25][27]. Conclusion - The article concludes that while there are uncertainties regarding soybean prices due to high planting areas and low demand, corn prices are expected to rise due to reduced planting areas and tight inventories. The opening prices for new season soybeans are projected to be around 1.8-1.9 CNY per jin, while corn may reach 0.8-0.85 CNY per jin [27].

农产品日报 | 2025-06-17 苹果产区交易分化，红枣启动环割工作 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2510合约7610元/吨，较前一日变动+25元/吨，幅度+0.33%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格4.10元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+590，较前一日变动-25；陕西洛川70# 以上 半商品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+1990，较前一日变动-25。 近期市场资讯，苹果市场整体交投淡稳，冷库出货氛围一般，询价客户不多，产区新季苹果套袋工作进入后期。 西部产区客商货源找货热度不高，个别冷库货源出现水烂点等质量问题，持货商整体惜售情绪减弱；山东产区大 果及好果走货一般，客商寻货不积极。销区市场市场走货一般，消暑类水果存在一定冲击。陕西洛川产区目前库 内70#起步果农统货4.2-4.5元/斤，70#起步半商品4.5-5.0元/斤，以质论价。 山东栖霞产区果农三级2.5-3元/斤，果 农80#以上统货3-3.5元/斤，80#一二级条纹4.0-4.5元/斤，80#一二级片红3.8-4.0元/斤。 市场分析 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [5][10][11] Core Views - The agricultural sector is expected to experience a positive cycle, particularly in beef and dairy markets, with potential upward price movements in 2025 [5][8][10] - The report highlights a generally neutral outlook for soybean supply and demand, with expectations of price stability in the near term [2][28] - The overall supply of corn is tightening, leading to a forecast of moderate price increases [1][21] Summary by Relevant Sections Corn - The USDA June report estimates a global corn production increase of 1 million tons (approximately +0.08%) for the 25/26 season, with total usage up by 1.4 million tons (approximately +0.11%) [1][18] - The final global ending stocks are projected to decrease by 0.94% to 275.24 million tons, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio down by 0.23 percentage points to 21.57% [18][19] - Domestic corn prices are expected to maintain a moderate upward trend, supported by a tightening supply-demand balance [21][22] Soybeans - The USDA June report indicates that global soybean production for the 25/26 season remains unchanged from May estimates, with a slight increase in total usage by 100,000 tons (approximately +0.02%) [2][28] - The final global ending stocks are projected to increase by 970,000 tons (approximately +0.78%) to 125.3 million tons, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio down by 0.81 percentage points year-on-year [2][29] - The report anticipates that soybean prices will remain stable at the bottom of the market in the first half of 2025 [30][37] Wheat - The USDA June report forecasts a global wheat production increase of 70,000 tons (approximately +0.01%) for the 25/26 season, with total usage up by 1.8 million tons (approximately +0.22%) [3][45] - The final global ending stocks are projected to decrease by 2.97 million tons (approximately -1.12%) to 26.276 million tons, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio down by 0.44 percentage points to 32.45% [3][45] - The wheat market is expected to remain in a loose supply-demand balance, with prices likely to stabilize at the bottom [3][45] Sugar - Short-term sugar imports are expected to increase, with market prices likely to remain weak due to ample supply [4][16] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring Brazilian weather and sugar production progress, as well as potential geopolitical risks affecting supply [4][16] Cotton - The report indicates that domestic cotton prices are expected to remain weak until demand shows positive changes, with a projected decrease in global production and demand [4][18] - The final stocks-to-use ratio is expected to decrease by 1.16 percentage points to 65.22%, indicating a loose supply-demand balance [4][18] Beef - The report predicts an upward trend in U.S. beef prices for 2026, with a significant reduction in supply expected [5][20] - Domestic beef prices are expected to remain strong despite seasonal trends, indicating a potential reversal in the beef cycle in 2025 [5][23] Dairy - The report suggests that the dairy market may experience a reversal in 2025, driven by reduced production and increased overseas consumption [8][25] - Domestic raw milk prices are expected to rise in the second half of 2025 due to supply constraints and reduced imports [8][27] Pork - The U.S. pork market is expected to see a slight increase in demand, with consumption growth slightly outpacing supply growth [8][29] - Domestic breeding stock levels are expected to remain stable, supporting profitability in the pork sector [8][30] Poultry - The U.S. poultry market is projected to recover in 2026, with domestic demand expected to improve [9][32] - The report notes that high pathogenic avian influenza impacts are expected to weaken, allowing for a gradual recovery in supply [9][32] Eggs - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in egg supply starting in the second half of 2025, with overall supply expected to remain ample [9][36] - Domestic egg prices are projected to face downward pressure due to high supply levels [9][37]

Group 1 - The article highlights the importance of electricity supply in supporting agricultural development in Jiuquan, Gansu Province, emphasizing the role of the State Grid in ensuring safe and reliable power for agricultural enterprises [1][3][5] - Jiuquan's agricultural enterprises, such as the Gansu Cold Drought Group, have successfully leveraged their geographical advantages and rich agricultural resources to expand their market reach, particularly in cherry tomato production [3][4] - The State Grid Jiuquan Power Supply Company has implemented infrastructure upgrades and provided technical support to enhance power supply capabilities for agricultural parks, thereby facilitating the growth of local agricultural industries [4][5] Group 2 - The company has established a flexible support team to assist in the planning and development of county and township industrial parks, ensuring timely and efficient electricity supply [4][5] - The power supply company aims to enhance service quality and reliability to boost the agricultural product supply chain, contributing to the high-quality development of local economies [5]

Core Viewpoint - The "insurance + futures" model has effectively provided risk management solutions for farmers, particularly in the context of price volatility in agricultural products, contributing to sustainable development in the agricultural sector [1][2][4]. Group 1: Development and Impact of "Insurance + Futures" - The "insurance + futures" initiative began ten years ago, initially focusing on major agricultural products like cotton and sugar, and has since expanded significantly across various regions [1]. - In Shaanxi's Fuxian County, the program has insured 138,500 acres of apple orchards, covering a production volume of 207,000 tons and benefiting 9,171 households, with an average compensation of nearly 6,000 yuan per household [1][2]. - The program has provided a total insurance amount of 485 million yuan for 30,92 households, effectively mitigating market risks and supporting the high-quality development of the local apple industry [1][2]. Group 2: Financial Support and Growth - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) has supported 211 pilot projects across six agricultural products, with a total premium of 1.5 billion yuan and a coverage amount of 34.6 billion yuan [3]. - The average compensation rate stands at approximately 69%, with nearly 1.1 billion yuan paid out in claims, benefiting 760,000 households [3]. - Increased financial support from national and local governments has made the "insurance + futures" model more accessible to small and medium-sized farmers, enhancing agricultural risk management capabilities [5]. Group 3: Future Directions - To further enhance the effectiveness of the "insurance + futures" model, continuous efforts are needed to expand its coverage and improve collaboration among relevant departments [5]. - There is a call for local governments to increase policy support and work in conjunction with futures and insurance institutions to elevate the program's impact [5].