Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - No core view is presented in the given content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - Australian mainstream iron ore fines: Newman powder price is 780, unchanged daily and up 10 weekly; PB powder is 783, unchanged daily and up 10 weekly; Mac powder is 773, down 3 daily and up 3 weekly; Jinbuba powder is 734, unchanged daily and up 10 weekly; Mixed powder is 722, down 3 daily and down 3 weekly; Super special powder is 670, down 2 daily and down 3 weekly; Carajás powder is 882, down 1 daily and up 4 weekly [1]. - Brazilian mainstream iron ore fines: Brazilian blend is 820, up 2 daily and up 6 weekly; Brazilian coarse IOC6 is 783, unchanged daily and up 8 weekly; Brazilian coarse SSFG is 788, unchanged daily and up 8 weekly [1]. - Other varieties: Ukrainian concentrate is 875, unchanged daily and weekly; 61% Indian powder is 723, unchanged daily and up 10 weekly; Karara concentrate is 877, unchanged daily and weekly; Roy Hill powder is 770, unchanged daily and up 10 weekly; KUMBA powder is 842, unchanged daily and up 10 weekly; 57% Indian powder is 605, down 2 daily and down 3 weekly; Atlas powder is 717, down 3 daily and down 3 weekly [1]. - Domestic ore: Tangshan iron concentrate is 1008, unchanged daily and weekly [1]. Futures Market - Dalian Commodity Exchange contracts: i2601 is 772.5, unchanged daily and up 12 weekly; i2605 is 743.5, down 2 daily and up 3.5 weekly; i2609 is 721.5, down 1.5 daily and down 0.5 weekly [1]. - Singapore Exchange contracts: FE01 is 99.71, up 0.03 daily and down 1.04 weekly; FE05 is 97.40, up 0.01 daily and down 1.10 weekly; FE09 is 95.32, down 0.06 daily and down 1.11 weekly [1]. Premium and Spread - Ore premium: PB lump/ lump ore premium and U - ball/ pellet premium data are presented, but specific analysis is not provided [1]. - Inter - monthly spread: For Dalian Commodity Exchange contracts, i2601 - i2605 spread is - 51.0, unchanged daily and down 1.2 weekly; i2605 - i2609 spread is 29.0, up 2.0 daily and up 7.3 weekly; i2609 - i2601 spread is 22.0, up 1.5 daily and up 11.3 weekly [1].

铁矿石周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所 张广硕（分析师） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年11月16日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铁矿观点：产业链利润博弈，震荡反复 | | 最近一周切片数据 | | | | | | | | YTD累计发运数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 条 目 | 当周值 | | 环 比 | 同 | 比 | | 45W2025 | 45W2024 | 累计同比 | | 累计同比% | | | 全球发货量 | 3069 | 0 . | -144 8 . | 48 | 3 . | 全球发货 | 139687 3 . | 137365 8 . | 2321 5 . | 1 . | 7% | | | 澳发货量 | 1717 | 6 . | -109 9 . | -230 | 0 . | 澳发货 | 80141 9 . | 806 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, iron ore prices fluctuated at the bottom and dropped to the previous low. The market game intensified, but the rapid decline in terminal demand is expected to dominate the medium - term iron ore prices. The overall iron ore fundamental situation has changed significantly, and it is expected that iron ore prices will mainly operate at a high level with a downward trend [4]. - The demand side shows a situation where domestic demand continues to weaken while overseas steel demand maintains high growth. The valuation of iron ore in the black series remains high, but as domestic terminal demand declines rapidly, the high - valuation of iron ore prices is expected to fall [32]. - For trading strategies, take a bearish view on single - side trading, and adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options trading [4]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies**: Adopt a bearish view on single - side trading, and wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [4]. Iron Ore Core Logic Analysis Supply Side - **Global Iron Ore Shipment**: The global iron ore shipment has been continuously declining from a high level, approaching the level of the same period last year. In 2025 to date, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments is 31.04 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7%/23 million tons. The weekly shipment from Australia is 17.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%/4.6 million tons, and that from Brazil is 7.58 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%/11.4 million tons. The overall supply of the four major mines in the first three quarters increased by 10 million tons year - on - year, and the overseas shipment in the fourth quarter is expected to remain at a relatively high level [7][15]. - **Non - mainstream Ore Shipment**: The global shipment of non - mainstream iron ore has increased slightly month - on - month. In 2025 to date, the weekly average of non - Australian and non - Brazilian ore shipments is 5.66 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9%/16.4 million tons. The shipment of non - mainstream ore is expected to maintain a high level year - on - year in the fourth quarter, but the year - on - year increase is expected to slow down [16][17]. - **Port Inventory**: This week, the port inventory of imported iron ore continued to increase rapidly, and the total domestic inventory of imported iron ore increased by nearly 3.3 million tons month - on - month. Since August, the total domestic iron element inventory has continued to increase, with an accumulation of over 10 million tons, and is currently at a high level in the past five years [23][26]. Demand Side - **Domestic Demand**: In the third quarter of 2025 to date, domestic molten iron production increased by 3.5%/11.3 million tons year - on - year, and crude steel production increased by 3.2%/12.3 million tons year - on - year. However, the apparent demand for building materials decreased by 5.4%/9.3 million tons year - on - year, and the apparent demand for non - building materials decreased by 1.7%/3.2 million tons year - on - year. The domestic consumption of crude steel (excluding exports) decreased by 3.4%/12.3 million tons year - on - year. The demand for steel in the manufacturing industry has turned from positive growth in the first half of the year to negative growth [32]. - **Overseas Demand**: From January to September, the consumption of overseas iron ore decreased by 2%/15 million tons year - on - year, but the consumption of overseas iron elements increased by nearly 4%/27.6 million tons year - on - year. The consumption of overseas iron elements has been at a high level year - on - year since the second quarter, continuously contributing to the increase. The demand for crude steel in overseas India remains at a relatively high level [32].

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights the growth in China's iron ore imports, indicating a significant increase in both volume and value for September 2025 compared to the previous year [1][2]. Group 1: Import Data - In September 2025, China imported 116 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, marking an 11.9% year-on-year increase [1]. - The import value for the same period reached 11.278 billion USD, reflecting a 16.3% year-on-year growth [1]. Group 2: Industry Analysis - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in comprehensive industry research and providing tailored consulting services [2]. - The firm has a strong focus on delivering in-depth industry reports, business plans, feasibility studies, and customized solutions to empower investment decisions [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, there is still a risk of hot - rolled coil inventory, and future attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm. With the gradual implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve. The steel consumption side may gradually recover in the future. In the short term, due to the impact of the cost side, the price center of finished products has slightly declined, and the demand is still weak, with prices continuing the weak and volatile trend. However, with the implementation of policies and changes in the macro - environment, future demand is expected to reach an inflection point [2]. - For iron ore, high inventory still suppresses the price. In the short term, the rebound in hot - metal production supports the demand for iron ore on the margin. In the macro vacuum period, the futures price is likely to follow the real - world logic, and the iron ore fundamentals are weak. The short - term ore price will operate within the shock range, with the lower limit between 750 - 760 yuan/ton [5]. - For the black sector, it is considered that looking for a callback position to do a rebound may have a higher cost - performance ratio than continuing to short. The subsequent overseas situation will be a definite situation of both fiscal and monetary easing, and domestic demand - stimulating policies are still expected. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the manganese ore end; for silicon iron, its operability is relatively low [10]. - For industrial silicon, the supply and demand are both weak, and the cost support is temporarily stable. It is expected that the price will consolidate and wait for new drivers [13]. - For polysilicon, with a significant reduction in supply, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. Be cautious about the authenticity of long and short news [16]. - For glass, the current market has limited positive factors, and the short - term rebound momentum is insufficient with limited upside space [19]. - For soda ash, the current supply is relatively high, and the downstream demand is average. The short - term price will continue the low - level shock pattern [21]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3046 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.263%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 5166 tons to 90327 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 10693 lots to 1.857343 million lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3210 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3200 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3254 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (- 0.03%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 12063 tons to 107606 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 8957 lots to 1.302507 million lots. The aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong and Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. Strategy Views - Rebar supply and demand both declined, inventory continued to decline, and the overall performance was neutral. Hot - rolled coils had weak demand, could not absorb the production, and the inventory showed a counter - seasonal accumulation. Overall, steel demand has entered the off - season, and there is still a risk of hot - rolled coil inventory. Future attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 772.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.19% (- 1.50), and the positions decreased by 7106 lots to 494,100 lots. The weighted positions were 910,700 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 782 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 58.73 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 7.07% [4]. - The Simandou iron ore project was officially put into production on November 11, but it will take time to reach full production, and the increase is expected to be limited this year [4]. Strategy Views - On the supply side, the overseas iron ore shipment volume continued to decline. The shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased, and Vale and Rio Tinto contributed to the reduction. The shipments from non - mainstream countries increased, and the near - end arrivals decreased. On the demand side, the daily average hot - metal production was 236.88 tons, up 2.66 tons. The increase mainly came from Hebei, with an increase in the utilization rate of some blast furnace capacities. The steel mill profitability continued to decline, and some regional steel mills started blast furnace annual inspections due to losses. The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly. The terminal data was weak. High inventory still suppresses the price, and the short - term rebound in hot - metal production supports the demand for iron ore on the margin [5]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron Market Information - On November 13, the main manganese silicon contract (SM601) closed down 0.10% at 5756 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a discount to the futures price of 5890 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a premium to the futures price of 134 yuan/ton [7]. - The main silicon iron contract (SF601) closed up 0.29% at 5506 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 silicon iron in Tianjin was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a discount to the futures price of 6 yuan/ton [8]. Strategy Views - In November, the macro environment entered a relative vacuum period, and the pricing of the black sector returned to the fundamentals. The market was trying a "negative feedback" trading in the black sector, but it was considered a temporary shock and emotional release with limited downside space. For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for a callback position to do a rebound. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the manganese ore end; for silicon iron, its operability is relatively low [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main industrial silicon contract (SI2601) closed at 9145 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.54% (- 50). The weighted positions increased by 6269 lots to 418,415 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygenated silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was 205 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 silicon was 9750 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract after conversion was - 195 yuan/ton [12]. - The main polysilicon contract (PS2601) closed at 54195 yuan/ton, with a change of + 1.37% (+ 735). The weighted positions increased by 2397 lots to 237,112 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, and the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.15 yuan/kg, all unchanged. The basis of the main contract was - 2045 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy Views - For industrial silicon, in October, the production continued to increase. In November, the production in the southwest is expected to decline. The demand for polysilicon decreased, and the organic silicon production is expected to be stable. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to consolidate [13]. - For polysilicon, in November, some production capacities started maintenance, and the production is expected to decline in the last two months. The downstream silicon wafer production is also expected to decline. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited [16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1056 yuan/ton, up 0 + 0.67% (+ 7). The North China large - plate price was 1110 yuan, unchanged; the Central China price was 1140 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 63.247 million boxes, up 111,000 boxes (+ 0.18%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 57,921 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 52,810 short positions [18]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1239 yuan/ton, up 2.06% (+ 25). The Shahe heavy - alkali price was 1194 yuan, up 30. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7073 million tons, down 0.69 million tons (- 0.18%), including 907,100 tons of heavy - alkali inventory, up 75,000 tons, and 800,200 tons of light - alkali inventory, down 144,000 tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased 21,477 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 16,961 short positions [20]. Strategy Views - For glass, the current market has limited positive factors, the downstream support is insufficient, the production enterprise shipment pressure increases, and the short - term rebound momentum is insufficient with limited upside space [19]. - For soda ash, the current supply is relatively high, the downstream demand is average, especially the consumption of heavy - alkali is weak. Due to the industry - wide losses, some enterprises have a stronger willingness to support prices. The short - term price will continue the low - level shock pattern [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is facing a complex situation with weakening cost support and potential negative feedback loops due to falling steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak season. Both steel and iron ore prices are under pressure, but there may be opportunities for long - positions after price stabilization [2][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: This week, the apparent demand for threaded steel decreased, production declined, and inventory continued to fall. The inventory of hot - rolled coil increased slightly. Steel mills may cut production more than the normal seasonal scale, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop. Coal, coke, and iron ore prices are weakening, reducing cost support [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the futures prices of both threaded steel and hot - rolled coil have fallen below the 10 - day moving average and are currently supported by the lower Bollinger Band [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see approach, avoid chasing up or selling down. Wait patiently for the price to stabilize and then go long for mid - term trading. Do not short when the price is low [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The closing price of the threaded steel main contract was 3046 yuan/ton, up 0.30% from last week; the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3254 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from last week [2]. - **Production**: The national building materials steel mill threaded steel production was 200.00 million tons, down 4.10% from last week; hot - rolled coil production was 313.66 million tons, down 1.41% from last week [2]. - **Inventory**: The five - major varieties of social inventory was 1061.38 million tons, down 1.27% from last week; the threaded steel social inventory was 415.75 million tons, down 2.34% from last week; the hot - rolled coil social inventory was 332.99 million tons, down 0.01% from last week [2]. - **Apparent Demand**: The five - major varieties of apparent demand was 860.61 million tons, down 0.73% from last week; the threaded steel apparent demand was 216.37 million tons, down 0.98% from last week [2]. 2. Iron Ore - **News and Market Impact**: The Simandou Iron Ore has finally started production, which is expected to affect the overall supply. Steel mills are reducing production due to falling profits and the end of the consumption peak season, suppressing raw material prices. Global shipments have declined from the peak, and port inventories are rising, putting pressure on futures prices [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price of the 01 contract has fallen below the middle Bollinger Band, and there is resistance from the dense trading area above [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see approach, wait patiently for the price to stabilize and then go long [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 772.5 yuan/dry ton, down 0.64% from last week; the SGX iron ore continuous - one settlement price was 102.79 US dollars/dry ton, down 0.78% from last week [4]. - **Supply**: Australian iron ore shipments were 1564.5 million tons, down 4.59% from last week; Brazilian shipments were 606.9 million tons, down 23.09% from last week [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory was 14898.83 million tons, up 2.45% from last week; the port trade ore inventory was 9977.79 million tons, up 3.36% from last week [4]. 3. Industry News - **Steel Billet Inventory**: According to Buguwang data, the steel billet inventory in Tangshan area was 119.63 million tons this week, down 1.35% from last week [6]. - **Threaded Steel Data**: As of the week of November 13, threaded steel production, apparent demand, factory inventory, and social inventory all decreased [6]. - **Coking Coal Auction**: On November 13, the coking coal auction in Linfen Puxian market showed a decline [7]. - **Steel Enterprise Data**: In early November 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises increased, and the daily production of crude steel increased while that of steel decreased [7]. - **Coking Plant Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 34 yuan/ton this week [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market - **Australian Iron Ore**: Newman powder price is 780, down 1 from the previous day and up 2 for the week; PB powder price is 783, down 1 from the previous day and down 2 for the week; Macfarlane powder price is 776, down 2 from the previous day and down 4 for the week; Jinbuba powder price is 734, down 1 from the previous day and down 2 for the week; Super special powder price is 672, down 5 from the previous day and down 15 for the week; Carajás powder price is 883, down 1 from the previous day and down 10 for the week; Roy Hill powder price is 770, down 1 from the previous day and down 2 for the week; KUMBA powder price is 842, down 1 from the previous day and down 2 for the week [1] - **Brazilian Iron Ore**: Brazilian mixed ore price is 818, down 1 from the previous day and down 3 for the week; Brazilian coarse IOC6 price is 783, down 1 from the previous day and down 4 for the week; Brazilian coarse SSFG price is 788, down 1 from the previous day and down 4 for the week [1] - **Other Regions' Iron Ore**: Ukrainian concentrate price is 875, down 3 from the previous day and down 15 for the week; 61% Indian powder price is 723, down 1 from the previous day and down 2 for the week; Karara concentrate price is 877, down 3 from the previous day and down 15 for the week; 57% Indian powder price is 607, down 5 from the previous day and down 15 for the week; Atlas powder price is 720, down 8 from the previous day and down 12 for the week; Tangshan iron concentrate price is 1008, unchanged from the previous day and the week [1] Futures Market - **DCE Contracts**: i2601 contract price is 772.5, down 1.5 from the previous day and down 5.0 for the week; i2605 contract price is 745.5, down 2.0 from the previous day and down 10.5 for the week; i2609 contract price is 723.0, down 1.5 from the previous day and down 12.0 for the week [1] - **SGX Contracts**: FE01 contract price is 99.68, up 1.28 from the previous day and down 0.79 for the week; FE05 contract price is 97.39, up 1.29 from the previous day and down 0.79 for the week; FE09 contract price is 95.38, up 1.38 from the previous day and down 0.72 for the week [1] Spread and Premium - **Inter - monthly Spread**: For DCE contracts, i2601 - i2605 spread is - 49.5, up 0.4 from the previous day and up 2.8 for the week; i2605 - i2609 spread is 27.0, up 0.9 from the previous day and up 8.3 for the week; i2609 - i2601 spread is 22.5, up 0.4 from the previous day and up 9.8 for the week; For SGX contracts, FE01 - FE05 spread is - 4.30, up 0.7 from the previous day and up 5.6 for the week; FE05 - FE09 spread is 2.29, up 0.2 from the previous day and up 1.1 for the week; FE09 - FE01 spread is 2.01, down 3.6 from the previous day and down 2.5 for the week [1] - **Premium**: Information on U - ball/ pellet premium, PB block/ block premium is presented in the form of historical data charts, but specific current premium values are not clearly summarized in the text [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the macro - economic expectations for steel may be in a vacuum, and the focus should be on industrial contradictions. Steel production is expected to gradually decline, with initial suppression of furnace materials and a potential for resonance in the latter half if supported by macro - funds or policies [3]. - The sentiment in the silicon - iron and manganese - silicon market has declined, and prices are oscillating. The fundamentals have concerns, with high supply, large inventory - clearing pressure, and weak downstream demand, so prices may be under pressure [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the fourth round of coke price increase is in a stalemate. There is downward pressure on coal prices in November, but the decline may be limited. If supply remains low, inventory replenishment may start around mid - December, and coal prices may rise again [3]. - For iron ore, short - term supply is strong due to arrival rhythms, but subsequent shipments are normal. With the decline of molten iron, port inventories will rise, and the previous price range is hard to maintain [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - On November 12, the far - month contract closing prices of RB2605, HC2605, etc. and their changes were reported. The trade volume of building materials spot was around 90,000 tons, and the market was generally dull. There is no new driving force in the short - term, and the macro - economic expectations may be in a vacuum. Steel production is expected to decline, and the initial stage will suppress furnace materials [1][2][3]. Silicon - Iron and Manganese - Silicon - Affected by the external macro - environment, market sentiment has declined, and prices are following the adjustment of the black - metal sector. The fundamentals have problems such as high supply and large inventory - clearing pressure, and prices may be under pressure [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the spot side, the fourth round of coke price increase is in a stalemate. The coking - coal auction has more non - successful bids, but most prices are rising. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal has dropped to 1100. On the futures side, the sector is oscillating. The positive factors on the supply side of coking coal are weakening, and the high valuation is hard to maintain. There is downward pressure on coal prices in November, but the decline may be limited [3]. Iron Ore - The short - term supply of iron ore is strong due to arrival rhythms, and subsequent shipments are normal. With the decline of molten iron, port inventories will continue to rise, and the previous price range is hard to maintain [3].

Report Core View - The prices of various black building materials are mainly in a state of volatile operation, and different varieties face different supply - demand situations and influencing factors [1][3][5][7] Steel Market Analysis - Yesterday, the main contract of rebar futures closed at 3,038 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,255 yuan/ton. The national building materials trading volume was 91,600 tons. This week, the production and sales of building materials increased month - on - month, inventory decreased month - on - month, and demand rebounded slightly. However, there is a possibility of weakening demand in the off - season. The output of strip steel decreased due to production restrictions in North China this week, demand remained resilient, and inventory decreased slightly month - on - month. The contradiction of strip steel lies in its high inventory and production, and steel prices are suppressed due to export profit losses, and production cuts are needed to resolve the fundamental contradictions [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Volatile and weak [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Yesterday, the price of iron ore futures rose slightly. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port increased slightly. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and quotes mostly followed the market. Steel mills' procurement was mainly for rigid demand. The cumulative trading volume of iron ore at major ports across the country was 988,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.35%. This week, the shipment of iron ore continued to decline, and the supply of iron ore was in a loose state. With steel mills' loss - induced production cuts, the demand for iron ore was under pressure. The current relative valuation of the Platts index of iron ore is relatively high, and the ore price is under downward pressure, but it is difficult to have a trend direction in the short term supported by downstream restocking demand [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Volatile and weak [4] Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Yesterday, the main contracts of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated downward. In terms of coke, there were more coking maintenance operations, and supply decreased due to environmental protection factors in some areas. In terms of coking coal, market sentiment cooled slightly, and the auction non - success rate of coking coal increased. For imported Mongolian coal, the transaction center of Mongolian coal moved down, and the partial transaction price of Mongolian 5 raw coal dropped to about 1,120 - 1,130 yuan/ton. The seasonal off - season characteristics of the terminal demand for steel are obvious, and there is an expectation of a further decline in hot metal production, and terminal demand is suppressed. Coupled with the recovery of Mongolian coal customs clearance volume and relatively high imports, the supply contraction logic is weakened to a certain extent [5] Strategy - Coking coal: Volatile; Coke: Volatile [6] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - In terms of origin, the prices of main producing areas fluctuated. Currently, the procurement of metallurgical, chemical, and large - scale station customers is stable, and the prices of some coal mines are temporarily stable. However, as the wait - and - see sentiment increases, the procurement rhythm of traders slows down, the number of coal - pulling trucks in some coal mines decreases, and the price slightly回调. Currently, the inventory of coal mines is not high, and the port prices are relatively strong, so coal mines are not very willing to cut prices. At ports, the port shipments increased, downstream buyers were waiting and watching, and the trading activity was low. Traders expect the winter supply - demand situation to be tight, and the quotes remain firm, but downstream buyers have limited acceptance of high prices, and the game between buyers and sellers intensifies. In terms of imports, the recent trend of the imported coal market is stable and slightly strong, the price advantage of imported coal is obvious, terminal customers centrally purchase imported coal with cost - performance advantages, and the price of imported coal rises accordingly, maintaining a stable cost - performance advantage [7] Strategy - None [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market warmed slightly yesterday, but the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and volatile trend. The demand for steel has officially entered the off - season, and there are still inventory risks for hot - rolled coils. Future attention should be paid to the pace of production cuts. With the gradual implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve, and steel consumption may gradually recover. In the short term, affected by the cost side, the price center of finished products has slightly shifted down, and the demand is still weak, so the prices will continue the weak and volatile trend. However, with the implementation of policies and changes in the macro - environment, future demand is expected to turn around [2]. - For iron ore, due to environmental protection restrictions and the decline in steel mill profitability, the demand for iron ore continues to weaken, and the inventory pressure remains. In the short term, the price of iron ore will still run weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level of 750 - 760 yuan/ton [5]. - For manganese silicon, its fundamentals are still not ideal and lack major contradictions. Attention should be paid to the situation of manganese ore. If the commodity sentiment warms up and the black - metal sector strengthens, manganese ore may become the driving force for manganese silicon's market. If not, manganese silicon is expected to follow the black - metal sector. For silicon iron, its supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions or drivers, and it has fluctuated with the cost of electricity recently, with a relatively low operational cost - effectiveness [10]. - For industrial silicon, its supply and demand are both weak, and the cost support is stable. It is expected that the price will consolidate and wait for new drivers. For polysilicon, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to whether the upstream futures and spot prices can remain firm [13][15]. - For glass, the market lacks strong support from the supply - demand fundamentals, and the cost support is weakening. It is expected that the price will remain weak in the short term. For soda ash, the industry supply is shrinking, the downstream demand is stable, but the price increase is limited by high inventory and weak demand. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate in the short term [18][20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3038 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.429%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 95,493 tons, a decrease of 5,119 tons from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 1.868036 million lots, a decrease of 55,665 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3210 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3190 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3255 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.400%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 95,543 tons, a decrease of 1,485 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.311464 million lots, a decrease of 15,428 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3270 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - Yesterday, the overall atmosphere in the commodity market warmed slightly, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and volatile trend. Fundamentally, the supply and demand of rebar both decreased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance overall; the demand for hot - rolled coils declined significantly, and it was difficult to absorb the production, resulting in an inverse - seasonal inventory build - up. In general, the steel demand has officially entered the off - season, and there are still inventory risks for hot - rolled coils. Future attention should be paid to the pace of production cuts. With the gradual implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve. Coupled with the expected recovery of manufacturing demand, steel consumption may gradually recover in the future. In the short term, affected by the cost side, the price center of finished products has slightly shifted down, and the demand is still weak, so the prices will continue the weak and volatile trend. However, with the implementation of policies and changes in the macro - environment, future demand is expected to turn around [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - Yesterday, the main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 774.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.44% (+11.00), and the position changed by - 29,119 lots to 501,200 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 924,900 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 784 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 59.44 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.13%. The Simandou Iron Ore Project was officially put into operation on November 11 [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume in the latest period continued to decline month - on - month. In the shipment end, the shipment volumes from Australia and Brazil continued to fall. Among the major mines, Vale and Rio Tinto contributed to the reduction. The shipment volume from non - mainstream countries increased, and the near - term arrival volume decreased month - on - month. In terms of demand, the average daily pig iron output in the latest period according to the Steel Union's statistics was 234,220 tons, a decrease of 21,400 tons month - on - month. The environmental protection restrictions in Hebei had a significant impact, contributing a large part of the maintenance volume. The profitability rate of steel mills reached a new low this year, with 60% of steel mills below the break - even point, and some steel mills increased maintenance. In the inventory end, the port inventory increased at a faster pace, and the steel mill inventory increased month - on - month. The terminal data was weak. Fundamentally, affected by environmental protection restrictions and the decline in steel mill profitability, the pig iron output continued to decline, the demand for iron ore continued to weaken, and the inventory pressure remained. Macroscopically, the China - US summit in October and the Fed's interest rate meeting have both taken place. Overall, during the macro - vacuum period, the futures price trend is likely to follow the real - world logic. The fundamentals of iron ore are weak, and the short - term price will still run weakly. Attention should be paid to the support level of 750 - 760 yuan/ton [5]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron Market Information - On November 12, the main manganese silicon contract (SM601) closed down 0.03% at 5762 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5890 yuan/ton on the futures basis, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 128 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main silicon iron contract (SF601) closed up 0.04% at 5590 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 72 silicon iron in Tianjin was 5550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a discount of 10 yuan/ton to the futures price. On the daily - line level, the manganese silicon futures price was still in the oscillation range of 5600 - 6000 yuan/ton, with no obvious directional trend. Currently, it is approaching the downward trend line since February this year. Attention should be paid to the support level around 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton. For silicon iron, the futures price was in the oscillation range of 5400 - 5800 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the support level around 5400 yuan/ton [7][8]. Strategy Viewpoints - In October, the market was affected by many macro - events. In November, the macro - environment entered a relatively quiet period, and the pricing of the black - metal sector returned to fundamentals. This week, the pig iron output continued to decline, and the profitability rate of steel mills fell below 40%. The steel demand remained weak, especially the demand for plates declined significantly and started to build inventory again. Affected by multiple factors, the commodity sentiment that just showed signs of warming cooled down again. The market is trying to conduct "negative feedback" trading in the black - metal sector, but this is considered a temporary shock and emotional release, with limited downward space. For the future of the black - metal sector, it is more cost - effective to look for callback positions to buy for a rebound rather than shorting. The height after the rebound depends on whether stimulus policies are introduced and their intensity. For manganese silicon, its fundamentals are not ideal and lack major contradictions. Attention should be paid to the situation of manganese ore. If the commodity sentiment warms up and the black - metal sector strengthens, manganese ore may become the driving force for manganese silicon's market. If not, manganese silicon is expected to follow the black - metal sector. For silicon iron, its supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions or drivers, and it has fluctuated with the cost of electricity recently, with a relatively low operational cost - effectiveness [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Information**: Yesterday, the main industrial silicon contract (SI2601) closed at 9195 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.16% (+15). The weighted contract position changed by - 14,588 lots to 412,146 lots. In the spot market, the price of non - oxygen - blown 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 155 yuan/ton for the main contract; the price of 421 was 9750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of - 245 yuan/ton for the main contract after conversion [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Yesterday, the price of industrial silicon declined during the day and then rebounded in the afternoon. In the short term, the price fluctuated. In October, the production of industrial silicon continued to increase. Although the operating rate in the southwest production area decreased during the dry season, the production in the northwest increased, offsetting the production decline caused by the dry season. It is expected that the production in the southwest will continue to decline in November. If the operating rate in the northwest stabilizes, the supply pressure may be relieved. In terms of demand, the production plan of polysilicon in November decreased, and some leading enterprises started maintenance, mainly in the southwest. The demand for industrial silicon from polysilicon weakened. The production of organosilicon is expected to be stable. The absolute value of the visible inventory is still high, but the marginal change is limited, and the marginal pressure on the price is small. Fundamentally, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are both weak, and the cost support such as electricity and coal - coke is stable. It is expected that the price will consolidate and wait for new drivers [13]. Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Yesterday, the main polysilicon contract (PS2601) closed at 53,460 yuan/ton, with a change of +2.95% (+1530). The weighted contract position changed by +532 lots to 234,715 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon according to SMM was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.15 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous day, with a basis of - 1310 yuan/ton for the main contract [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Fundamentally, in November, some polysilicon production capacities started maintenance, and the production plan decreased to 120,000 tons, mainly in the southwest. The production in the last two months is expected to decline. The operating rate of downstream silicon wafers is also expected to decline slightly, and the production is expected to decrease month - on - month compared with October. In the future, with a significant reduction in supply, the supply - demand pattern of polysilicon may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. The price of second - and third - tier silicon wafer enterprises has loosened, which has a negative impact on the upstream price, especially when there is no actual progress in the platform company and stockpiling. The futures price has adjusted periodically. Future attention should be paid to whether the upstream futures and spot prices can remain firm. Currently, both long and short news about stockpiling and the platform company can easily affect the futures price, causing rapid declines or increases. Attention should be paid to distinguishing the authenticity and using position control to manage risks [15]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Information**: On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the main glass contract closed at 1053 yuan/ton, down 1.50% (-16). The price of large - sized glass in North China was 1110 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1140 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 63.136 million cases, a decrease of 2.654 million cases (-4.03%) from the previous week. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 19,034 lots today, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 625 lots [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Currently, the float glass market lacks strong support from the supply - demand fundamentals. As the optimistic sentiment brought by the production line shutdown in Shahe is gradually digested by the market, downstream procurement has become more cautious, and the production - sales ratio in some areas has slowed down. Although the supply in some regions has shrunk due to environmental protection policies, the impact on the overall supply - demand structure is limited. At the same time, the cost support for the price is continuously weakening, and the production profit of enterprises is generally under pressure. The market sentiment is generally pessimistic. In general, it is expected that the price will remain weak in the short term [18]. Soda Ash - **Market Information**: On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the main soda ash contract closed at 1215 yuan/ton, down 0.90% (-11). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1164 yuan, a decrease of 12 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7142 million tons, an increase of 12,200 tons (4.03%) from the previous week, including 899,600 tons of heavy soda ash, an increase of 13,200 tons, and 814,600 tons of light soda ash, a decrease of 1000 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 2689 lots today, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 19,653 lots [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Currently, some soda ash enterprises are reducing production, and Chongqing Heyou Industrial plans to shut down soon. The overall industry supply is shrinking. The downstream demand is stable, but the market transactions are mainly for low - price goods. The order - receiving situation of soda ash manufacturers is generally good. Affected by the shortage of some light soda ash in the Middle East, the price of new orders has increased. However, due to the high inventory and weak demand, the price increase space is still limited. It is expected that the market will be influenced by both long and short factors in the short term, and the price may continue to fluctuate [20].