焦炭基差(右轴) 近期双硅价格跟随整个黑色板块震荡,总体看来驱动仍不足。基本面上,钢材价格承压格局不变,钢厂利润收缩，铁水向下 调整,直接需求走弱预期较强。随着终端需求谈李来临，负反馈压力逐步累积。整体合金厂利润不佳,但产量依旧偏高。 青岛港:出库价(含税):准一级治金焦(A13. S0 金厂自身减产或控产的驱动不足,中期供给过剩压力仍不减。由于供需过剩,合金厂库存累积较快,仓单数量趋于累积。 = 期货收益价(活跃合约 期双硅供给偏高而需求偏弱,虽然成本支撑走强,但供需过剩格局延续,价格将承压偏弱。 1500 【焦煤焦炭】期货大幅下跌,本周重大会议暂无增量利好 现货端:传焦炭第二轮提降将于周三登场,焦煤竞拍表现依然较弱,流拍较多,不过也有部分焦企适当补充原料库存,少 高性价比资源小幅上涨,港日贸易准一焦炭报价1450(-),炼焦煤价格指数1317.1(-4.6);蒙煤方面;口岸贸易企业 报价有所下调,下游企业询盘间价偏低,市场悲观情绪较浓,现甘其毛都口岸:蒙5原煤970(-18),蒙5精煤110(-) 河北唐山:蒙5精煤1390(-)。期货端:煤焦破位后,不断下跌创新低,市场情绪悲观, [M01跌破1000。 ...

| 焦煤基差(右轴) 大津港:库提价:主焦煤( (家古,A10%. 2000 800 4000 600 3000 400 2000 200 【钢材】区间震荡,等待新驱动 1000 周一期现价格偏弱,不过现货成交略转好。国内政治局会议召开,定调在预期内,暂时没有太多超预期的新亮点，后续还 中央经济工作会议,预计在两周内召开。产业端,周度层面的供需变化偏平稳,上周数据看钢材五材供需更多是供需两弱 压力重新给到炉料;五材中板材去库压力比较突出,对价格上方区间构成压力,以及压制市场参与者的主动持货意愿。此 -200 外,后续预计会有下游适当补库的行为,来释放部分增量买盘,价格低位存在一些支撑。因此,构成了近期黑色板块行情》 ti – EZDC 60-2702 动不大,价格区间震荡的基础。12月可以预见的是铁水产量或许还有一些下降空间,再之后的冬储补库。按照这个产业银 90+700 20-1700 oo 60-1800 60-17202 LO-17202 逻辑链条来线性外推的话,目前需要等待减产逻辑兑现:之后观察冬储补库驱动的启动。当下比较有效的参与 有安全边际的前提下,通过期现头寸兑现一些利润,可重点关注热卷的机会。 ...

| 焦煤基差(右轴) 大津港:库提价:主焦煤 2000 800 4000 600 3000 400 【钢材】区间震荡,等待新驱动 CAP 2000 周末现货偏弱,现货价格小跌10-20元不等,成交清淡。宏观层面,本周比较重要,将是12月宏观交易的重点博弈周: 降息预期博弈以及国内中央经济工作会议等重要会议:目前看,市场暂时没有做出太多预期交易。产业这端,周度层面的 1000 需结构变化都偏平稳。上周数据看钢材五材供需更多表现为供需两弱。压力或重新给到炉料,五材中板材去库压力比较突 出,对价格上方区间构成压力,以及压制市场参与者的主动持货意愿。此外,后续预计产业端会有一些适当补库的行为, -200 释放部分增量买盘,价格低位存在一些支撑。因此,构成了近期黑色板块行情波动不大,价格区间震荡的基础。12月相对 可以预见的是铁水产量或许还有一些下降空间,再之后的冬储补库,按照这个产业链逻辑备采线性外推的话,目前需要适 00 + 100 20 + 100 70 + 2002 z ++700 60-7707 2024-07 5-02 当等待减产逻辑兑现:之后观察冬储补库驱动的启动。当下比较有效的参与方式是在基差有安全边际 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market's sentiment has cooled, and trading volume has weakened. The steel price may gradually decline in the future, and it is necessary to wait for the reduction logic to be realized [2]. - The supply and demand of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are poor, and the prices are under pressure. The prices will continue to be under pressure due to the excess supply and demand pattern [3][5]. - The expected increase in Mongolian coal imports suppresses the far - month coking coal price. The coking coal and coke prices are expected to be weak in November, with limited decline, and may rise again in mid - December [6][7]. - The fundamentals of iron ore are weak, but the macro - sentiment is strong. The inventory will continue to accumulate, and the operation should be short - selling on rallies [8]. Summary by Category Futures Market - On November 19, for far - month contracts: RB2605 closed at 3116.00 yuan/ton with a rise of 18.00 yuan; HC2605 closed at 3281.00 yuan/ton with a fall of 11.00 yuan; I2605 closed at 755.00 yuan/ton with a rise of 2.50 yuan; J2605 closed at 1795.50 yuan/ton with a fall of 15.00 yuan; JM2605 closed at 1210.50 yuan/ton with a fall of 32.50 yuan [1]. - For near - month contracts: RB2601 closed at 3070.00 yuan/ton with a fall of 15.00 yuan; HC2601 closed at 3277.00 yuan/ton with a fall of 6.00 yuan; I2601 closed at 791.50 yuan/ton with a rise of 6.00 yuan; J2601 closed at 1639.00 yuan/ton with a fall of 27.00 yuan; JM2601 closed at 1139.50 yuan/ton with a fall of 33.00 yuan [1]. - On November 19, the spread between HC and RB was 207.00 yuan/ton with a rise of 11.00 yuan; the ratio of RB to I was 3.88 with a fall of 0.02; the ratio of coking coal to coke was 1.44 with a rise of 0.02; the threaded steel disk profit was - 113.23 yuan/ton with a fall of 13.93 yuan; the coking disk profit was 123.47 yuan/ton with a rise of 15.44 yuan [1]. Steel - The futures price fell slightly on Wednesday, and the spot trading volume declined. The market's initiative to chase up was still weak. Before early December, the risk preference was differentiated. The steel production is expected to gradually decline in the future, and it is necessary to wait for the reduction logic to be realized [2]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - As the steel price is under pressure and the steel mill's profit shrinks, the direct demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has weakened significantly. The weekly apparent demand has dropped to the lowest point of the year. The negative feedback pressure is gradually accumulating, and the prices are under pressure [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - The spot market sentiment of coking coal has weakened, with most auction prices falling. The expected increase in Mongolian coal imports suppresses the far - month coking coal price. In November, the coal price is under downward pressure, and the market is expected to be weak and volatile. It may rise again in mid - December [6][7]. Iron Ore - The short - term arrival of iron ore has weakened slightly, and the inventory will continue to accumulate. The iron ore price is under pressure due to the expected reduction of steel mills' production, and the operation should be short - selling on rallies [8]. Investment Strategies - For steel, take a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. Consider participating in the spot - futures positive arbitrage for hot - rolled coils or using option strategies to assist spot sales [9]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, investment clients should short - sell on rallies, and industrial clients can use put - spread options to protect spot positions [9]. - For coking coal and coke, take a short - term approach for single - side trading, wait and see for the medium - and long - term, and consider partially closing the previously recommended hedging short positions [7][9]. - For iron ore, hold short positions [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the macro - economic expectations for steel may be in a vacuum, and the focus should be on industrial contradictions. Steel production is expected to gradually decline, with initial suppression of furnace materials and a potential for resonance in the latter half if supported by macro - funds or policies [3]. - The sentiment in the silicon - iron and manganese - silicon market has declined, and prices are oscillating. The fundamentals have concerns, with high supply, large inventory - clearing pressure, and weak downstream demand, so prices may be under pressure [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the fourth round of coke price increase is in a stalemate. There is downward pressure on coal prices in November, but the decline may be limited. If supply remains low, inventory replenishment may start around mid - December, and coal prices may rise again [3]. - For iron ore, short - term supply is strong due to arrival rhythms, but subsequent shipments are normal. With the decline of molten iron, port inventories will rise, and the previous price range is hard to maintain [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - On November 12, the far - month contract closing prices of RB2605, HC2605, etc. and their changes were reported. The trade volume of building materials spot was around 90,000 tons, and the market was generally dull. There is no new driving force in the short - term, and the macro - economic expectations may be in a vacuum. Steel production is expected to decline, and the initial stage will suppress furnace materials [1][2][3]. Silicon - Iron and Manganese - Silicon - Affected by the external macro - environment, market sentiment has declined, and prices are following the adjustment of the black - metal sector. The fundamentals have problems such as high supply and large inventory - clearing pressure, and prices may be under pressure [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the spot side, the fourth round of coke price increase is in a stalemate. The coking - coal auction has more non - successful bids, but most prices are rising. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal has dropped to 1100. On the futures side, the sector is oscillating. The positive factors on the supply side of coking coal are weakening, and the high valuation is hard to maintain. There is downward pressure on coal prices in November, but the decline may be limited [3]. Iron Ore - The short - term supply of iron ore is strong due to arrival rhythms, and subsequent shipments are normal. With the decline of molten iron, port inventories will continue to rise, and the previous price range is hard to maintain [3].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The steel market sentiment trading has temporarily ended, and the focus will return to the industrial supply side [2]. - For steel, the long - term industrial logic is a gradual decline in steel production. In the early stage of production cuts, it may actively suppress furnace materials, and in the later stage, there may be a driving opportunity for the sector to rise in resonance [3]. - For silicon iron and manganese silicon, affected by the external macro - environment, market sentiment has declined, and prices are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate. Future attention should be paid to supply - demand changes [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the third round of price increases has been delayed. Although the supply is tight currently, considering the weakening steel demand, the supply - demand tightness may ease. Pay attention to the performance of the 05 contract near the previous high for long - term low - buying, and industrial customers can consider selling hedging on the 01 contract [3]. - For iron ore, with the weakening of macro - sentiment, the supply is stable. Due to environmental restrictions and potential steel mill maintenance, iron ore port inventories will rise, and it is advisable to try short - selling unilaterally [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Futures Market - **Far - month Contracts Closing Prices on October 31**: RB2605 was 3166.00 yuan/ton (-18.00, -0.57%), HC2605 was 3318.00 yuan/ton (-24.00, -0.72%), I2605 was 776.50 yuan/ton (-4.50, -0.58%), J2605 was 1916.50 yuan/ton (-22.00, -1.13%), JM2605 was 1354.00 yuan/ton (+15.00, +1.10%) [1]. - **Near - month Contracts Closing Prices on October 31**: RB2601 was 3106.00 yuan/ton (+15.00, +0.48%), HC2601 was 3308.00 yuan/ton (-24.00, -0.72%), I2601 was 800.00 yuan/ton (-4.50, -0.56%), J2601 was 1777.00 yuan/ton (-20.00, -1.11%), JM2601 was 1286.00 yuan/ton (-12.00, -0.92%) [1]. - **Cross - month Spreads on October 31**: RB2601 - 2605 was -60.00 yuan/ton (-13.00), HC2601 - 2605 was -10.00 yuan/ton (+4.00), I2601 - 2605 was 23.50 yuan/ton (-1.00), J2601 - 2605 was -139.50 yuan/ton (+0.50), JM2601 - 2605 was -68.00 yuan/ton (+3.00) [1]. - **Spreads/Ratios/Profits on October 31**: The coil - to - rebar spread was 202.00 yuan/ton (-10.00), the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.88 (+0.01), the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.38 (-0.01), the rebar disk profit was -160.25 yuan/ton (+8.88), the coking disk profit was 66.62 yuan/ton (-6.84) [1]. Spot Market - **Rebar Spot Prices on October 31**: Shanghai rebar was 3210.00 yuan/ton (0.00), Tianjin rebar was 3170.00 yuan/ton (-40.00), Guangzhou rebar was 3320.00 yuan/ton (-30.00), Tangshan billet was 2970.00 yuan/ton (-10.00), and the Platts Index was 107.40 (-0.30) [1]. - **Hot - rolled Coil Spot Prices on October 31**: Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3310.00 yuan/ton (0.00), Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3360.00 yuan/ton (0.00), Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3310.00 yuan/ton (-50.00), the billet - to - product spread was 240.00 yuan/ton (+30.00), and Rizhao Port PB was 800.00 yuan/ton (-7.00) [1]. - **Other Spot Prices on October 31**: Alumina was 733.00 yuan/ton (-5.00), a certain product was 775.00 yuan/ton (-5.00), Ganqimao Du coking coal was 1390.00 yuan/ton (0.00), Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade coke was 1530.00 yuan/ton (0.00), and Qingdao Port PB was 800.00 yuan/ton (-7.00) [1]. - **Basis on October 31**: HC main contract was 2.00 yuan/ton (+10.00), RB main contract was 104.00 yuan/ton (0.00), I main contract was 44.00 yuan/ton (0.00), J main contract was -96.84 yuan/ton (+9.50), JM main contract was 134.00 yuan/ton (+2.00) [1]. Market Analysis - **Steel**: After the macro - events are realized, the market focus may return to the industry. The static supply - demand is healthy, but market confidence is insufficient. The steel production is expected to decline gradually, which may first suppress furnace materials and then drive the sector to rise [3]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Affected by the macro - environment, market sentiment has declined, and prices are expected to fluctuate. Future attention should be paid to supply - demand changes [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The third round of price increases has been delayed. Although the supply is tight, considering the weakening steel demand, the supply - demand tightness may ease. Pay attention to the 05 contract for long - term low - buying, and industrial customers can consider selling hedging on the 01 contract [3]. - **Iron Ore**: With the weakening of macro - sentiment, the supply is stable. Due to environmental restrictions and potential steel mill maintenance, iron ore port inventories will rise, and it is advisable to try short - selling unilaterally [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the steel market, as the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" arrives, the supply and demand of steel may shift from weak to strong. However, for steel prices to have an upward rebound drive, it requires confirmation of an upward acceleration in demand indicators. Currently, the price upward drive is not clear, and the next two weeks should focus on whether the peak - season demand accelerates upward [2]. - In the silicon - iron and manganese - silicon market, the previous large - scale losses in the alloy industry have turned into profits, with supply increasing. Terminal demand needs to be verified during the peak season, and there is a risk of a decline in iron - water and electric furnace starts, and inventory de - stocking pressure remains [3]. - In the coking coal and coke market, the second round of coke price cuts is expected to be implemented soon, but the coal - coke futures price decline space may be limited. Short - term trading is volatile, and mid - term investors can consider going long on dips [5]. - In the iron ore market, during the restocking period, iron ore has support, but its price increase height depends on the performance of steel demand. It is still recommended to buy on dips in the long term [6]. Summary by Category Futures Market - On September 12th, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3189 yuan/ton with a rise of 39 yuan and a 1.24% increase; HC2605 closed at 3368 yuan/ton with a rise of 21 yuan and a 0.63% increase. For near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3127 yuan/ton with a rise of 26 yuan and a 0.84% increase; HC2601 closed at 3364 yuan/ton with a rise of 22 yuan and a 0.66% increase [1]. - As of September 12th, the roll - screw spread was 237 yuan/ton with a decrease of 5 yuan; the screw - ore ratio was 3.91 with an increase of 0.02; the coal - coke ratio was 1.42 with a decrease of 0.01; the steel - making profit on the screw thread was - 62.68 yuan/ton with an increase of 30.65 yuan; the coking profit on the disk was 103.32 yuan/ton with a decrease of 8.49 yuan [1]. Spot Market - On September 12th, the Shanghai screw thread price was 3210 yuan/ton with no change; the Tianjin screw thread price was 3190 yuan/ton with no change; the Guangzhou screw thread price was 3240 yuan/ton with no change; the Tangshan billet price was 3010 yuan/ton with no change; the Platts Index was 106.35 with an increase of 0.7 [1]. - The Shanghai hot - rolled coil price was 3410 yuan/ton with an increase of 40 yuan; the Hangzhou hot - rolled coil price was 3440 yuan/ton with an increase of 50 yuan; the Guangzhou hot - rolled coil price was 3390 yuan/ton with an increase of 40 yuan; the billet - material spread was 200 yuan/ton with a decrease of 3010 yuan; the PB price at Rizhao Port was 791 yuan/ton with a decrease of 9 yuan [1]. Investment Strategies - For steel, take a wait - and - see approach on a single - side basis; pay attention to the contraction of the roll - screw spread of the 01 contract for disk arbitrage; and focus on reverse arbitrage (end - user buying hedging) for spot - futures arbitrage [7]. - For silicon - iron and manganese - silicon, industrial customers should pay attention to spot - futures positive arbitrage [7]. - For coking coal and coke, mid - term investors can consider going long on dips with last week's low as a reference [7]. - For iron ore, continue the strategy of buying on dips [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The steel market's supply and demand may shift from weak to strong as the "Golden September and Silver October" season approaches. The focus in the next two weeks is to observe the steel's apparent demand, and the futures price valuation is neutral [2]. - The short - term trading style of the double - silicon market changes rapidly, following the black sector. Fundamentally, the industry's profit has recovered, supply is increasing, and demand may be under pressure, with high inventory and de - stocking pressure [3]. - The coking coal and coke market is oscillating. Although the first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, the downside of the futures market may be limited. There are opportunities for mid - line low - position long - position layout [5]. - Guinea's policy affects the market's expectation of iron ore supply increment. The short - term upward breakthrough of iron ore prices allows early low - position long - positions to take profit. The 01 - contract iron ore still has support below [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - On September 10, the closing prices of far - month contracts RB2605, HC2605, etc. and their changes were presented. The current futures price valuation is neutral, and the basis is briefly favorable for end - users' buying hedging. The market is waiting for the performance of this week's apparent demand [1][2]. - The trading strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and close the cash - and - carry arbitrage [7]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - The short - term market sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the double - silicon market follows the black sector. The industry's profit has recovered, supply is increasing, and terminal demand may be difficult to improve significantly, with high inventory and de - stocking pressure [3]. - Industrial customers are advised to focus on cash - and - carry arbitrage [7]. Coking Coal and Coke - On September 10, the closing prices of far - month and near - month contracts of coking coal and coke and their changes were shown. The first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, but the futures market's previous low may have priced in 2 - 3 rounds of cuts. The downside may be limited. Mid - line investors can consider low - position long - position layout based on last week's low [1][5][7]. Iron Ore - Guinea's policy affects the market's expectation of iron ore supply increment. The iron ore price has broken through upward, and early low - position long - positions can take profit. In September, there is support from the demand side due to pre - holiday restocking. The 01 - contract iron ore still has support below [6]. - The trading strategy is to continue the low - position long - position idea [7].