Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a slight decline in cotton futures prices on the ICE, with the current price at 66.56 cents per pound, down 0.27% from the opening price of 66.74 cents per pound [1] - As of September 11, the opening price for U.S. cotton was 66.74 cents, with a closing price also at 66.74 cents, reflecting a minor increase of 0.12% [2] - The inventory of imported cotton at major ports has decreased to 290,500 tons, marking a week-on-week decline of 2.45% and reaching a two-year low [2] Group 2 - In Shandong province, the inventory of imported cotton is approximately 228,000 tons, down 2.98% week-on-week and down 41.98% year-on-year [2] - The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) has adjusted its forecast for cotton planting area in Brazil for 2025 to 2.131926 million hectares, an increase of 5.1% from the previous month, but a decrease of 0.5% from the previous year [2] - The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture's National Supply Company (CONAB) has revised its forecast for Brazil's cotton production in the 2024/25 season to 4.06 million tons, up from the previous estimate of 3.93 million tons [2]

Core Viewpoint - The "Super Cotton Field" project in Xinjiang, managed by two young individuals, has achieved significant breakthroughs in cotton production, with a yield exceeding 520 kg per mu in 2024, showcasing the potential of smart agriculture in transforming traditional farming practices [1][2]. Group 1: Project Overview - The "Super Cotton Field" spans 3,000 mu and has consistently improved in total and per mu yield from 2021 to 2024, reaching top levels in the region [1]. - The project utilizes advanced technologies such as agricultural drones, autonomous farming machinery, and smart irrigation systems, achieving a 75% automation rate in operations [1]. Group 2: Challenges and Innovations - The project faced significant challenges, including a wind disaster in 2021 that halved the harvestable area and a rare snowstorm in May 2023 that required replanting 1,500 mu [2]. - Solutions to these challenges were developed through collaboration with the technology company, leading to improved techniques for pest control, weed management, and overall operational efficiency [2]. Group 3: Impact on Agriculture - The success of the "Super Cotton Field" has led to increased interest from local farmers seeking technological support, with the project now extending to over 1,200 farms across Xinjiang, covering 700,000 mu [2]. - The initiative represents a broader trend of digital empowerment and technological innovation driving the transformation of traditional agriculture in Xinjiang [3].

新华社音视频部制作 记者：陈梦 郭燕 两个人，能管得了3000亩棉田吗？在新疆植棉大县尉犁，"超级棉田"项目给出了响亮答案。 ...

棉系周报：临近新花上市 棉价震荡为主 第一部分 国内外市场分析 第二部分 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 目录 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 210/10/16 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 221/221/221 208/218/234 第一部分 国内外市场分析 内容摘要 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 221/221/221 208/218/234 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 ◼ 国际市场分析 ◼ 国内市场分析 ◼ 期权交易策略 ◼ 期货交易策略 国际市场分析 3 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.09.05」 棉花（纱）市场周报 研究员：王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 关 注 微信客 服 号 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权及股市关联市场 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：本周郑棉主力2601合约价格下跌，周度跌幅约1.69%。 行情展望：国际方面，美国农业部(USDA)驻巴西专员发布的报告显示，预计巴西 2025/26年度棉花产量预估上修至1810万包（约394万吨），较最初预测的1780万包 （约387万吨）提高1.6%，较2024/25年度创记录的1700万包（约370万吨）增长 6.5%，上调原因主要是种植面积扩大。国内方面，棉花商业库存处于近年来相对低 位水平，且进口同比大幅减少，新棉上市前供应趋于偏紧状态。需求端，市场对 "金九银十"需求旺季有一定预期。截至目前主流纺企开机负荷在六成附近，环比 上升明显，刷新逾一个月最高水平，旺季订单在缓慢回暖过程。总体来说，新棉大 量上市前，国内旧作供应偏紧，加上需求边际回暖，预计期价延续高位震荡运行。 策略建议，操作上，郑棉2601合约 ...

塔吉克斯坦霍瓦尔通讯社9月4日杜尚别报道，据塔吉克斯坦农业部数据，截至2025年9月1日，塔收获 3.5万吨棉花，其中约3.3万吨产自哈特隆州的农场。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillation [6] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillation [6] - **Corn/Starch**: Weak oscillation [7] - **Live Pigs**: Oscillation [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillation [9] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillation [12] - **Cotton**: Oscillation with a slight upward trend [13] - **Sugar**: Weak oscillation [15] - **Pulp**: Oscillation [16] - **Logs**: Weak oscillation [16] 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply of live pigs is expected to increase in the second half of 2025, and the pig price is under pressure. However, the "anti - involution" policy may lead to a turnaround in the pig cycle in 2026 [1][8]. - Oils and fats may continue to oscillate and adjust in the short term, but have a high probability of running strongly in the medium term [6]. - Protein meal is expected to continue to oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to the support at the lower edge [6]. - The market sentiment for corn should not be overly pessimistic. Traders are pre - arranging to stock up, and there are opportunities for short - term profit - taking and long - term low - buying [7][8]. - The upward driving force of rubber prices is limited, but the downside support is strong, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [9][11]. - Synthetic rubber follows the oscillation of natural rubber, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [12]. - Cotton prices are expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger from now to early October, with the key to upward breakthrough being the purchase price. After the large - scale listing of new cotton, prices may be under pressure [13]. - Sugar prices are under increasing supply pressure and are expected to run weakly [15]. - The core driving force of pulp futures is difficult to determine, and the trend is expected to be oscillating [16]. - The log market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectations, and the short - term trend is expected to be weakly oscillating [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Live Pigs - **Supply**: In the short term, the planned slaughter volume in September is expected to increase. In the medium term, the supply of commercial pigs in the second half of the year is expected to increase. In the long term, the "anti - involution" policy aims to eliminate excess capacity, but there are resistance to active production cuts [1][8]. - **Demand**: The temperature is getting cooler, the price difference between fat and lean pigs is expanding, and the price ratio of meat to pigs is stable [1][8]. - **Inventory**: The average slaughter weight decreased slightly this week, and the weight inventory is higher than the same period last year, with the main goal of destocking before the National Day [1][8]. - **Outlook**: Before the National Day, the spot and near - month pig prices are expected to remain weak. The far - month contract prices are supported by the expectation of supply - side capacity reduction, presenting a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation" [2][8]. 3.2 Oils and Fats - **Macro Environment**: The market focuses on the Fed's September monetary policy expectations, and the US dollar is oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations and US crude oil supply and demand [6]. - **Industrial End**: The drought - affected area of US soybeans is expanding, and the export demand of US soybeans is affected by Sino - US trade relations. The inventory of domestic soybeans and rapeseed has different trends, and attention should be paid to trade negotiations and policies [6]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, oils and fats may continue to oscillate and adjust. In the medium term, they are more likely to run strongly [6]. 3.3 Protein Meal - **International Situation**: The excellent rate of US soybeans is high, and attention should be paid to weather changes. The discount of Brazilian soybeans has been adjusted, and the export of US soybeans is affected by the trade war [6]. - **Domestic Situation**: The spot price is stable, and the downstream demand is expected to improve. There is no supply gap before December, and attention should be paid to trade relations and national reserve auctions [6]. - **Outlook**: The internal - external price difference may be repaired, and it is expected to oscillate within a range [6]. 3.4 Corn/Starch - **Supply**: The inventory of old - crop corn is decreasing, and new - crop corn is about to be listed. There are doubts about whether there will be a supply gap during the transition period [7][8]. - **Demand**: The downstream inventory is seasonally low, and the procurement intention of large feed enterprises is low, but small enterprises in South China are replenishing stocks [8]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, short - term short positions are recommended to take profits, and opportunities to short on rebounds can be waited for. In the long term, there is a low - buying opportunity [7][8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Market Information**: The prices of various rubber products and raw materials have different changes, and the global natural rubber production and consumption have different trends [9]. - **Logic**: The upward driving force of rubber prices is limited, but the downside support is strong. There are many speculative themes, and the short - term supply may decrease while the demand is rigid [9][11]. - **Outlook**: The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [11]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Market Information**: The prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene have different trends [12]. - **Logic**: The synthetic rubber market follows the natural rubber market, and the short - term tightness of raw material butadiene provides cost support [12]. - **Outlook**: The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [12]. 3.7 Cotton - **Supply**: The commercial inventory of cotton is at a low level in the same period, and the supply pattern is tight before the new cotton is listed [13]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand is gradually picking up, and the orders are increasing [13]. - **Purchase**: The expected purchase price of seed cotton by ginners may increase, but the expected large increase in new cotton production will suppress the increase [13]. - **Outlook**: From now to early October, it is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger, and the key to upward breakthrough is the purchase price. After the large - scale listing of new cotton, prices may be under pressure [13]. 3.8 Sugar - **International Market**: In the new crushing season, the sugar production in Brazil, Thailand, and India is expected to increase [15]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic sugar is in the pure sales period, and the import volume is increasing [15]. - **Outlook**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the sugar price is expected to run weakly [15]. 3.9 Pulp - **Market Situation**: The pulp futures have been weak, and the main reason for the decline is the low market acceptance of Brilliant Needle pulp [16]. - **Outlook**: The internal contradictions of the pulp market are divided, and the trend is expected to be oscillating [16]. 3.10 Logs - **Market Situation**: The log market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectations, with some positive factors such as cost support and reduced supply pressure [16]. - **Outlook**: The short - term trend is expected to be weakly oscillating [16].

Core Insights - The latest USDA weekly crop progress report indicates that as of the week ending August 31, the good-to-excellent rating for U.S. cotton is at 51%, down from 54% the previous week and up from 44% the same time last year [1] - As of the same week, the U.S. cotton blooming rate is at 28%, an increase from 20% the previous week but lower than the 35% recorded last year and the five-year average of 30% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the domestic market, short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend. In the international market, short - term US cotton may maintain a volatile trend. The report suggests short - term trading [48][49] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou cotton futures rebounded this week with a weekly increase of 1.5%. ICE cotton futures declined and then rebounded, with a weekly decrease of 1.01% [10] 3.1.2 Spot Prices - This week, the cotton price index rose. The 3128 index increased by 75 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the 2129 index increased by 85 yuan/ton [14] 3.1.3 Cotton Import Situation - In July, 50,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 150,000 tons [19] 3.1.4 Cotton Inventory Situation - In the first half of August, the commercial cotton inventory was 1.8202 million tons, a decrease of 369,600 tons compared with the second half of July [23] 3.1.5 Downstream Inventory Situation - In July, the yarn inventory was 27.67 days, a year - on - year decrease of 0.65 days. The grey cloth inventory was 36.14 days, a year - on - year increase of 2.82 days [27] 3.1.6 Yarn Prices - This week, yarn prices rose. The price of OEC10S yarn increased by 20 yuan/ton compared with last week, the price of C32S yarn increased by 60 yuan/ton, and the price of JC40S yarn increased by 40 yuan/ton [32] 3.1.7 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 539. The number of warehouse receipts was 6,720, and the valid forecasts were 2, with a total of 6,722 [38] 3.1.8 US Cotton Export Situation - As of August 21, the net sales of US upland cotton exports in the current year increased by 179,300 bales, and the net sales of exports in the next year were 0 bales [40] 3.1.9 US Weather Situation - In the US, the total area in drought (D1 - D4) is 27.7%, with D0 - Abnormally Dry at 17.3%, D1 - Moderate Drought at 10.9%, D2 - Severe Drought at 10.8%, D3 - Extreme Drought at 5.5%, and D4 - Exceptional Drought at 0.5% [47] 3.2后市展望 3.2.1 Domestic Market - Xinjiang cotton has basically entered the yield - determining stage. The weather in the main producing areas is ideal, and cotton is growing well. The market expects a slight increase in cotton yield per mu, and the total cotton output in Xinjiang in the 2025/26 season may reach 7 million tons. The expected purchase price of seed cotton is 6 - 6.5 yuan/kg. Textile orders in the peak season are starting, and the operating rate has increased slightly. The 2025 cotton import sliding - duty processing trade quota has little impact on the market. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend [48] 3.2.2 International Market - US cotton declined and then rebounded. The weak US dollar due to the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has boosted the price of US cotton. There is some drought in the southern US, but the impact is limited. The good export situation and high excellent - rate of US cotton suggest that short - term US cotton may maintain a volatile trend [48]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2601) closed higher with a weekly increase of about 1.5%, and the cotton yarn futures contract (2511) rose 0.4% [6][18]. - Internationally, the price of ICE cotton futures fluctuates repeatedly due to the influence of the US dollar. Domestically, cotton is in a de - stocking state, supply is tight before the new cotton is listed, and the spot price is firm. China's total quota for the sliding - duty tariff processing trade of cotton imports in 2025 is 200,000 tons [6]. - There are certain expectations for the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" peak demand season. In 2025, China's overall cotton planting area has increased, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on the growth of new crops [6]. - Before the new cotton is listed, the supply of old cotton is tight, and with the expectation of improved demand, the center of the main cotton contract has moved up slightly, but the medium - term space may be restricted by the increase in new cotton production. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously and set stop - losses [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Analysis**: Zhengzhou cotton's main 2601 contract rose 1.5% this week, and cotton yarn futures 2511 contract rose 0.4% [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Internationally, ICE cotton futures prices fluctuate due to the US dollar. Domestically, cotton is de - stocking, supply is tight before new cotton is listed, and spot prices are firm. There are expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" season. China's 2025 cotton planting area has increased, and weather impact on new crops should be watched. The main cotton contract may rise slightly but be restricted by new cotton production [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions cautiously and set stop - losses [6]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, macro factors, trade policies, and weather factors [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the US cotton December contract fluctuated this week with a weekly increase of about 0.01%. As of August 19, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of ICE No. 2 cotton decreased by 0.24% month - on - month, non - commercial short positions decreased by 3.28% month - on - month, and the net position increased by 8.67% month - on - month [10]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: As of the week ending August 21, 2025, the net increase in US cotton export sales for the current market year was 179,300 bales, including a net increase of 4,400 tons in exports to the Chinese mainland. As of August 27, 2025, the Cotlook:A index was 78.2 cents per pound, down 0.89% month - on - month [13]. - **Futures Market**: Zhengzhou cotton's main 2601 contract rose 1.5% this week, and cotton yarn futures 2511 contract rose 0.4%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 69,475, and in cotton yarn futures was - 869. The number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 6,514, and cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts were 62 [18][23][30]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 29, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,328 yuan per ton, and the Chinese cotton yarn C32S spot index price was 20,760 yuan per ton. As of August 28, 2025, the CY index: OEC10s (air - jet yarn) was 14,820 yuan per ton [38][50]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of August 27, 2025, the import cotton price index (FC Index):M:1% quota port pick - up price was 13,385 yuan per ton, down 0.79% month - on - month; the sliding - duty tariff port pick - up price was 14,220 yuan per ton, down 0.43% month - on - month. The import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index) for different varieties had no month - on - month change [55]. - **Imported Cotton Price Cost - Profit**: As of August 27, 2025, the cost - profit of imported cotton at the sliding - duty tariff port pick - up price (M) was 1,122 yuan per ton, and at the 1% quota port pick - up price was 1,957 yuan per ton [56]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory**: As of July 31, 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.1898 million tons, down 22.62% month - on - month, and the industrial cotton inventory was 898,400 tons, up 1.85% month - on - month [61]. - **Supply Side - Imported Cotton Volume**: In July 2025, China's cotton import volume was 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative cotton import volume was 520,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.2%. In July 2025, China's cotton yarn import volume was 110,000 tons, and from January to June 2025, the cumulative cotton yarn import volume was 780,000 tons [65]. - **Mid - end Industry - Demand Side**: As of July 31, 2025, the yarn inventory days were 27.67 days, down 2.43% month - on - month, and the grey fabric inventory days were 36.14 days, down 2.95% month - on - month [69]. - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Textile and Garment Export**: As of July 31, 2025, the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.1604009 billion US dollars, down 3.69% month - on - month; the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.5161759 billion US dollars, down 0.69% month - on - month [73]. - **Downstream Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Domestic Clothing Retail**: As of July 31, 2025, the monthly retail value of clothing was 66.85 billion yuan, down 25.57% month - on - month; the year - on - year monthly retail value of clothing was 0.2%, down 88.24% month - on - month [75]. 3.4 Option and Stock Market - Related Market - **Option Market**: This week, the implied volatility of at - the - money options for cotton was analyzed, but specific data was not provided in the summary part [77]. - **Stock Market - Xinjiang Xinnong Development Co., Ltd.**: The price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Xinnong Development Co., Ltd. was analyzed, but specific data was not provided in the summary part [80].