Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, the price of the main Zhengzhou cotton 2605 contract decreased, with a weekly decline of approximately 0.58%. The US cotton 3 - month contract price rose, with a weekly increase of about 0.23%. The 2025/26 US upland cotton export sales and shipments showed positive trends. In the domestic market, the national commercial cotton inventory continued to rise, and the market supply was relatively sufficient. The downstream demand was generally weak, but the yarn price remained stable due to cost - driven factors. The 12 - month textile and clothing export growth rate rebounded. The previous expectation of reduced cotton planting area has been reflected in the market, and it is expected to enter an adjustment phase in the short term [5][11][19]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the main Zhengzhou cotton 2605 contract decreased, with a weekly decline of approximately 0.58% [5]. - **Market Outlook**: US cotton export sales and shipments were strong. In the domestic market, the commercial cotton inventory increased, and the downstream demand was weak but supported by cost and export data. The market is expected to enter an adjustment phase in the short term [5]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The US cotton 3 - month contract price rose by about 0.23% this week. As of January 6, 2026, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 81,409 lots, an increase of 247 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 110,329 lots, a decrease of 1,790 lots from the previous week; the net short positions were 28,920 lots, a decrease of 2,037 lots from the previous week [11]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: As of January 8, the net increase in 2025/26 US upland cotton export sales was 339,700 bales, a record high for the year. The international cotton spot price this week was 75.05 cents per pound, unchanged from last week [16]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the Zhengzhou cotton 2605 contract decreased by about 0.58% this week, and the yarn futures 2603 contract decreased by 0.75%. As of this week, the net positions of the top 20 in cotton futures were - 168,795 lots, and those in yarn futures were - 1,467 lots. The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's cotton futures warehouse receipts were 9,666, and the yarn futures warehouse receipts were 70 [19][25][31]. - **Spot Market**: As of January 16, 2026, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,931 yuan per ton, and the spot price index of Chinese yarn C32S was 21,300 yuan per ton. The 5 - 9 contract spread of Zhengzhou cotton was - 155 yuan per ton, and the spot price spread between cotton 3128B and yarn C32S was 5,369 yuan per ton [35][40][51]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of January 15, the import cotton price with sliding - scale duty was 13,735 yuan per ton, a decrease of 19 yuan per ton from last week; the import cotton quota price was 12,616 yuan per ton, a decrease of 18 yuan per ton from last week. The import yarn price index showed different prices for different varieties [55]. - **Imported Cotton Price Cost - Profit**: As of January 15, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was 2,235 yuan per ton, an increase of 205 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 1,629 yuan per ton, an increase of 204 yuan per ton from last week [58]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Supply - Side**: As of the end of November 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 4.6836 million tons, an increase of 1.753 million tons from the previous month, a growth rate of 59.82%, and 10,000 tons higher than the same period last year, a growth rate of 0.21%. The in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 939,600 tons, an increase of 51,400 tons from the end of the previous month. In November 2025, China's total cotton import volume was about 120,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative imported cotton was 890,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64%. The imported yarn volume in November 2025 was 110,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons [63][70]. - **Mid - End Industry**: As of the end of November, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.33 days, an increase of 0.21 days from the previous month, and the grey fabric inventory was 32.34 days, an increase of 0.37 days from the previous month [73]. - **Terminal Consumption**: In December 2025, China's textile and clothing export volume was 25.99 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4%, and a month - on - month increase of 8.9%. As of October 31, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of domestic clothing were 864.54 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 13.90%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase was 2.9%, a month - on - month increase of 20.83% [79][83]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market - Related Market - **Options Market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week is presented in the report, but no specific data is provided [84]. - **Stock Market**: The report shows the price - to - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [87].

Core Viewpoint - The cotton industry in Xinjiang is experiencing significant advancements in mechanization, scientific seed selection, and an extended industrial chain, leading to increased efficiency, higher yields, and improved income for farmers [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8]. Mechanization and Efficiency - The mechanization of cotton farming has transformed the industry, with farmers now using advanced machinery for planting, pest control, and harvesting, resulting in a dramatic reduction in labor costs and time [2][3]. - The comprehensive mechanization rate for cotton farming in Shaya County has remained above 95% for five consecutive years, with farmers increasingly forming cooperatives to share resources and services [2][3]. Scientific Seed Selection - The process of seed selection has become more scientific, with farmers now relying on data and expert recommendations rather than traditional methods, leading to better crop resilience and higher yields [4][5][6]. - The introduction of high-quality seed varieties has increased the cotton yield per acre in Shaya County from 285 kg in 2017 to 442 kg in 2025, resulting in an average income increase of 1,000 yuan per acre [6]. Extended Industrial Chain - The cotton industry in Shaya County has developed a complete industrial chain, allowing for local processing of cotton into various products, which significantly increases the added value compared to selling raw cotton [7][8]. - Local processing facilities have reduced transportation costs and time, enabling farmers to receive payments more quickly after selling their cotton [7][8]. Economic Impact and Employment - The advancements in the cotton industry have not only improved the income of farmers but have also attracted young people back to rural areas, creating more job opportunities and contributing to local economic growth [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils: Soybean oil and palm oil are rated as "sideways", while rapeseed oil is rated as "sideways with a downward bias" [7]. - Protein meals: Soybean meal is rated as "sideways", and rapeseed meal is rated as "sideways with a downward bias" [9]. - Corn and starch: Rated as "sideways" [11]. - Hogs: Rated as "sideways" [13]. - Natural rubber: Rated as "sideways with a bullish bias" [15]. - Synthetic rubber: Rated as "sideways with a bullish bias" [18]. - Cotton: Rated as "sideways with a bullish bias" [19]. - Sugar: Rated as "sideways with a downward bias" [20]. - Pulp: Rated as "sideways" [21]. - Offset paper: Rated as "sideways" [22]. - Logs: Rated as "sideways" [24]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a mixed performance, with different commodities having their own supply - demand fundamentals and price trends. For example, in the hog market, short - term supply pressure remains, but long - term supply may gradually ease; in the oil market, although there are some policy and supply - demand changes, the overall supply is relatively abundant [14][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Views 3.1.1. Hogs - **Logic**: Short - term supply pressure is small in early January, but some February hogs may be sold in advance in mid - to - late January. Medium - term supply will be excessive until April 2026. Long - term supply pressure may ease after May 2026. Demand declines after New Year's Day, and the average weight of hogs decreases but is still higher than the same period last year. - **Outlook**: The near - term price is expected to be in a weak sideways range, while the far - term price may rise in the second half of 2026, but currently, the production cut is insufficient, so far - term positions should be cautiously taken on dips [14]. 3.1.2. Oils - **Logic**: Indonesia cancels the B50 biodiesel plan, and raises the export tax on palm oil. The domestic soybean market has active auctions, and the supply of rapeseed oil may change due to trade relations. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil are sideways, and rapeseed oil is sideways with a downward bias. It is recommended to consider buying on dips and palm oil - rapeseed oil spread trading [7]. 3.1.3. Protein Meals - **Logic**: International factors such as the USDA's report, Brazilian soybean production, and the probability of El Niño affect the market. Domestically, soybean auctions are active, and the supply and demand of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are affected by trade and consumption. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, domestic soybean meal are sideways, and rapeseed meal is sideways with a downward bias [9]. 3.1.4. Corn and Starch - **Logic**: The increase in supply due to smooth selling restricts price increases. However, factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, the time required for imported grains, and downstream replenishment demand support prices. - **Outlook**: Sideways in the short - term [12]. 3.1.5. Natural Rubber - **Logic**: The market has a bullish atmosphere, mainly driven by macro factors. The supply is seasonally increasing, and the raw material price is firm, but the downstream demand is weak after the price increase. - **Outlook**: Sideways with a bullish bias in the short - term [17]. 3.1.6. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The price trend is bullish, mainly due to the expected improvement in the butadiene market and the possible impact of policies on supply. - **Outlook**: Sideways with a bullish bias in the medium - term [19]. 3.1.7. Cotton - **Logic**: The long - term driving factors are the expected "tight balance" in the 2025/26 season and the possible reduction in planting area in 2026. The short - term adjustment space is limited. - **Outlook**: Sideways with a bullish bias in the long - term [19]. 3.1.8. Sugar - **Logic**: The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, with most major producers expected to increase production. - **Outlook**: Sideways with a downward bias in the medium - to - long - term [20]. 3.1.9. Pulp - **Logic**: There are both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include rising import costs and high downstream paper production. Bearish factors include difficult cost transfer, seasonal demand decline, and sufficient supply. - **Outlook**: Sideways [21]. 3.1.10. Offset Paper - **Logic**: The market is affected by factors such as new warehouse receipts, industry profitability, supply and demand, and downstream consumption. - **Outlook**: There may be pressure in the late period, and attention should be paid to the risk of correction [22]. 3.1.11. Logs - **Logic**: The supply pressure will be marginally relieved in January - February. The price has support due to the inverted price difference, and there are some game points in the 03 contract. - **Outlook**: Sideways within a range [24]. 3.2. Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists the monitoring categories including oils and fats, corn and starch, hogs, cotton and cotton yarn, sugar, pulp and offset paper, logs, etc., but specific data details are not provided in the content [25][57][75]. 3.3. Commodity Index - On January 14, 2026, the comprehensive index, characteristic index (including commodity 20 index, industrial products index, PPI commodity index) all showed an upward trend. The agricultural product index also had a certain increase, with a daily increase of 0.20%, a 5 - day increase of 0.44%, a 1 - month increase of 2.30%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.29% [183][184].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic cotton price in China is expected to experience fluctuations in 2025, showing a trend of "stability followed by decline, then recovery" due to various factors including U.S. tariffs and domestic consumption policies [1] Group 1: Domestic Cotton Price Trends - In 2025, the overall domestic cotton price index is projected to fluctuate, with a minimum drop to 14,100 CNY/ton and a maximum rise to 15,609 CNY/ton during the year [1] - The average annual price for the cotton price index is expected to be 14,903 CNY/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.7% [1] - By December, domestic cotton prices continued to rise, supported by favorable macro policies and a strong textile market, reaching a peak of 15,556 CNY/ton [2] Group 2: Futures Market Dynamics - The futures market showed a bullish trend with increased participation, as the main contract CF2605 rose from 13,760 CNY/ton at the beginning of the month to 14,550 CNY/ton by the end [4][5] - The average settlement price for the main Zheng cotton contract was 14,009 CNY/ton, marking a month-on-month increase of 467 CNY [5] Group 3: Long Staple Cotton Demand and Pricing - Demand for long staple cotton was weak, leading to a slight price decline, with the price for 137-grade long staple cotton at 24,960 CNY/ton, down 40 CNY from the previous month [7] - The average transaction price for 137-grade long staple cotton was 24,896 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 104 CNY [7] Group 4: International Market Conditions - The international cotton market faced challenges, with prices initially declining before a slight rebound, resulting in a widening price gap between domestic and international markets [7] - The average price for imported cotton was 73.62 cents/pound, down 0.7% month-on-month, with a significant price gap of 673 CNY compared to the domestic cotton price index [7][10] Group 5: Cotton Yarn Pricing and Inventory Management - Cotton yarn prices increased in line with rising cotton prices, with the average price for 32-count pure cotton yarn at 20,901 CNY/ton, up 337 CNY month-on-month [10] - Due to limited new orders and year-end cash flow pressures, some spinning mills increased their inventory management efforts [10]

Market Overview - The cotton futures contract 2605 closed at 14,760 CNY/ton, an increase of 135 CNY/ton or 0.92% from the previous day [2][7] - The spot price for 3128B cotton in Xinjiang was 15,500 CNY/ton, down by 90 CNY/ton, while the national average price was 15,783 CNY/ton, a decrease of 74 CNY/ton [2][7] Supply and Demand Insights - According to the USDA's January cotton supply and demand forecast, the U.S. cotton planting area for 2025/26 is projected at 56.345 million acres, a decrease of 82,000 acres [2][7] - The abandonment rate is expected to drop to 15.9%, a reduction of 4.8 percentage points, leading to an increase in harvested area to 47.376 million acres, up by 2.647 million acres [2][7] - The yield is expected to be 64 kg/acre, down by 5.5 kg/acre, with total production forecasted at 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons [2][7] - Consumption is projected at 348,000 tons, showing a decrease of 5.9%, while exports are expected to remain stable at 2.656 million tons [2][7] - Ending stocks are anticipated to decrease by 65,000 tons to 914,000 tons [2][7] Market Analysis - The Zheng cotton price experienced a rebound amid significant supply pressure from the new cotton harvest in the Northern Hemisphere, while global textile consumption remains weak [8] - The slow progress in U.S. cotton export contracts suggests continued pressure on prices in the short term, although the long-term outlook indicates that U.S. cotton is undervalued with limited downside potential [8] - Domestic cotton production is expected to continue to increase significantly, with commercial inventories rising seasonally [8] - Despite active stocking by yarn factories and traders before the holiday, downstream orders have declined, leading to slower sales of finished products and increased inventory, particularly in the grey fabric sector [8] Strategic Outlook - The current strategy is neutral, with short-term pressures from downstream transmission and price differentials, necessitating caution regarding potential high-level corrections [9] - The medium to long-term upward potential will depend on the actual implementation of target price policies and acreage reduction policies [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core View of the Report The USDA's January cotton monthly report is bullish as the US cotton production is下调 more than expected, the global production is slightly adjusted, the global cotton demand increases slightly, and the ending stocks are下调. Although the global cotton supply may still be relatively loose, the surplus pressure has decreased, and the low price of US cotton may drive a slight rebound. The planting situation in the Northern Hemisphere should be monitored in the medium term [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 2025/26 Annual Supply and Demand Data Adjustments - **Production**: The global production in the 2025/26 season is下调 by 77,000 tons. India's production is下调 by 108,000 tons, the US production is下调 by 77,000 tons, and Turkey's production is下调 by 44,000 tons, while China's production is上调 by 218,000 tons. The US yield per acre is下调 from 929 pounds to 856 pounds, the harvested area is上调 from 7.37 million acres to 7.8 million acres, and the planted area is slightly下调 from 9.3 million acres to 9.28 million acres [1]. - **Consumption**: The global consumption in the 2025/26 season is环比上调 by 68,000 tons, with China's consumption上调 by 109,000 tons to 8.491 million tons, and the overall global consumption remains stable [1]. - **Imports**: The global cotton imports in the 2025/26 season are环比上调 by 5,000 tons. Turkey's imports are下调 by 21,000 tons, and India's imports are上调 by 43,000 tons, while the other major importing countries remain unchanged [1]. - **Exports**: The global exports are上调 by 6,000 tons. Australia's exports are上调 by 44,000 tons, and India's exports are上调 by 22,000 tons [1]. - **Ending Stocks**: The global ending stocks in the 2025/26 season are环比下调 by 324,000 tons. China's ending stocks are上调 by 109,000 tons, India's ending stocks are下调 by 261,000 tons, the US ending stocks are下调 by 66,000 tons, and Australia's ending stocks are下调 by 43,000 tons [2]. Global Cotton Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - **Production**: The total global production in the 2025/26 - January is 26.004 million tons, a decrease of 77,000 tons compared to the previous month and an increase of 208,000 tons compared to the previous year [3]. - **Consumption**: The total global consumption in the 2025/26 - January is 25.891 million tons, an increase of 68,000 tons compared to the previous month and a decrease of 5,000 tons compared to the previous year [3]. - **Imports**: The total global imports in the 2025/26 - January are 9.527 million tons, an increase of 5,000 tons compared to the previous month and an increase of 157,000 tons compared to the previous year [3]. - **Exports**: The total global exports in the 2025/26 - January are 9.53 million tons, an increase of 6,000 tons compared to the previous month and an increase of 300,000 tons compared to the previous year [3]. - **Ending Stocks**: The total global ending stocks in the 2025/26 - January are 16.217 million tons, a decrease of 324,000 tons compared to the previous month and an increase of 157,000 tons compared to the previous year [3].

1月2025/26年度美棉资产负债表显示，产量、期末库存均低于12月。期初库存、消费、出口、进口均保 持不变。产量较上月减少超过2%，降至1390万包，主要原因是三角洲地区产量下降。由于三角洲产量 下降及西南部收获面积较大，全国平均产量较上月下降8%，降至每英亩856磅。产量减少后，期末库存 减少7%，至420万包，占销量的30.4%。预计季节平均农产品价格提高至每磅61美分。 1月2025/26年度全球棉花资产负债表显示，产量下降，消费增加，期末库存减少，贸易基本与上月持 平。中国棉花产量预计提升100万包，但印度、美国、阿根廷、土耳其的减少超过35万包，全球棉花产 量减少超过35万包。全球棉花消费量增加30万包，中国的增长部分被土耳其、尼加拉瓜的减少所抵消。 棉花贸易增长幅度微乎其微，印度进口增加在很大程度上被土耳其、尼加拉瓜的减少所抵消。由于产量 减少、消费增加及印度2024/25年度产量和期末库存估计的下降，2025/26年度全球期末库存被下调150 万包。因此全球库存使用比率降至63%以下。 （来源：锦桥纺织网） 来源：锦桥纺织网 ...

Price Review - Domestic cotton prices continued to rise, with the Zheng cotton futures main contract reaching 15,035 yuan/ton on January 7, a 1.5-year high, before slightly retreating. The average settlement price for the Zhengzhou cotton futures main contract was 14,806 yuan/ton, up 291 yuan/ton from the previous week, a 2.0% increase. The national cotton price B index averaged 15,712 yuan/ton, up 242 yuan/ton, a 1.6% increase compared to the previous week [2] - International cotton prices experienced a brief rise due to strong domestic Zheng cotton prices and expectations of reduced U.S. cotton planting area, but faced downward pressure from weak U.S. cotton export data. The average settlement price for the New York cotton futures main contract was 64.69 cents/pound, up 0.45 cents/pound, a 0.7% increase from the previous week. The average international cotton index (M) price was 72.6 cents/pound, equivalent to an import cost of 12,435 yuan/ton (calculated with a 1% tariff, excluding port and handling fees), down 87 yuan/ton, a 0.7% decrease from the previous week. The price difference between domestic and international cotton expanded to 3,277 yuan/ton, an increase of 329 yuan/ton from the previous week [2] Market Outlook - The global supply of cotton is tightening, while terminal consumption shows signs of recovery. Brazil's cotton exports reached 453,000 tons in December 2025, with a total annual export of 3.03 million tons, a 9% year-on-year increase, effectively supplementing global supply. The Indian Cotton Association raised its production estimate for the current year to 5.262 million tons, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.77%, alleviating concerns about reduced production [5] - U.S. cotton exports remain weak, with a net contract volume of only 32,000 tons as of January 1, a further decline from the previous week, indicating weak spot demand. A recent survey indicated that U.S. cotton planting intentions for the 2026 season are expected to drop to 9.505 million acres, a decrease of 270,000 acres year-on-year, reflecting declining farmer enthusiasm and suggesting potential tightening of future supply [5] - The global apparel consumption demand is expected to recover, with inventory levels in major markets like the U.S. and South Korea dropping to near three-year lows. The consumer confidence index in the U.S. rose to 54 in January, the highest in four months, reinforcing expectations for improved terminal demand [5] - Domestic new cotton sales continue to increase, with a national cotton sales rate of 55.6% as of January 8, up 24.1 percentage points year-on-year, and 27.6 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years. The volume of cotton inspected has reached nearly 6.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.1% [5] - The downstream cotton yarn market shows mixed performance, with high and medium count yarns selling well, while low count yarns face sluggish sales. The operating rate of spinning enterprises remains stable but slightly decreased, with limited new order quantities [5][6] Market Dynamics - The domestic cotton market is influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors, with tightening supply expectations clashing with sluggish downstream transmission and increased imported cotton supply. Additionally, geopolitical and trade policy uncertainties are causing short-term fluctuations in Zheng cotton prices, which are likely to remain in a volatile pattern [6]

棉系周报：基本面有所支撑 棉花震荡略偏强 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 目录 第一部分 国内外市场分析 第二部分 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 208/218/234 第一部分 国内外市场分析 内容摘要 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 国际市场分析 ◼ 国内市场分析 ◼ 期权交易策略 ◼ 期货交易策略 国际市场分析 3 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 ...

来源：农民日报 近日，国家农作物品种审定委员会修订并印发《国家级棉花品种审定标准（2025年修订）》，于2025年 12月1日起正式实施。本次修订突出服务生产需求、激励原始创新导向，重点提高了品种抗病、机收、 产量及DNA指纹差异位点数等方面指标要求，进一步引导提升审定品种质量水平。一是提高抗病性指 标。要求枯萎病病情指数、黄萎病病情指数分别达到高抗和抗等级，有助于应对现阶段棉花连作导致枯 萎病、黄萎病加重发生风险。二是强化机收指标。在生育期、植株形态结构、结铃吐絮性能、脱叶剂敏 感度等指标上符合机收要求，引导提高棉花综合机械化水平。三是提高产量指标。两年区试平均产量指 标增产≥3%，同时每年增产幅度不低于1%（提高1个百分点），生产试验增产点率由≥50%提高至 ≥60%，明确不同纤维品质类型品种产量指标要求，引导提升棉花单产水平。四是明确DNA指纹差异位 点数指标。要求审定品种与已知品种DNA指纹检测差异位点数≥3个，严防模仿修饰育种和品种同质 化。五是新增耐除草剂转基因品种指标。根据生物育种研发进展增加耐除草剂指标要求，更好适应当前 国内生产需要。（加强品种全链条管理专项行动工作组） ...