Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The driving logic of cotton has changed, and there is not much contradiction between supply and demand in the new cotton year. In the international market, the price of American cotton is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and in the domestic market, the 09 contract of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly weakly, while the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and strongly in the long - term [11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton production is still in a high - yield pattern. The USDA July report estimated that the global cotton production in 2025/26 would be 25.783 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 322,000 tons or 1.2%, but there is an expectation of an increase later. The estimated production of Chinese cotton is 6.75 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 218,000 tons or 3.1%, but the market believes there is an upward adjustment space of about 500,000 tons. Recently, the United States has been affected by drought, but the actual impact is limited, and the good - to - excellent rate of American cotton is still 55% [6]. - In 2025, the actual sown area of domestic cotton increased month - on - month, and the total output is expected to increase by 2.8% year - on - year. The actual sown area of the whole country is 4.5803 million hectares, with a year - on - year increase of 6.3%, and the estimated output is 6.864 million tons [49]. - The sales rate of lint cotton is much higher than the same period last year. As of July 24, 2025, the sales volume of cotton was 6.44 million tons, and the sales rate was 96.5% [57]. Demand Side - The USDA July report estimated that the global cotton consumption in 2025/26 would be 25.718 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 309,000 tons or 1.2%. The estimated consumption of Chinese cotton is 7.947 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 109,000 tons or 1.2%, and China is the only major cotton - consuming country with a year - on - year decrease [7]. - In June, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles in China were 127.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%, and the cumulative retail sales from January to June were 742.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. The retail sales of clothing products were 89.82 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.7%, and the cumulative retail sales from January to June were 534.13 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. The year - on - year increase in retail sales of textile and clothing products is lower than that of social retail sales [7]. - As of the week ending August 1, the comprehensive load of yarn was 49.32%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.34 percentage points; the load of pure - cotton yarn mills was 47.48%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.54 percentage points. The comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 47.78%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 percentage points; the load of pure - cotton grey cloth was 44.36%, a week - on - week increase of 0.04 percentage points [7]. Import and Export - In June, China's cotton imports were 30,000 tons, hitting a new low in recent years, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 130,000 tons. The import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons [8]. - In June 2025, the export value of China's textile yarns, fabrics, and related products was 12.048 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.64%. From January to June, the cumulative export value was 70.519 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. The export value of clothing and clothing accessories in June was 15.267 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.79%, and the cumulative export from January to June was 73.459 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2% [8]. Inventory - As of mid - July, China's commercial cotton inventory was 2.5424 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 287,400 tons; the industrial inventory was 882,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20,900 tons; the total was 3.4245 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 308,300 tons [9]. - As of the week ending August 1, the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 29.62 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.12 days; the comprehensive inventory of staple - fiber cloth was 33.48 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 days. The cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 31.36 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 days; the cotton - yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 30.14 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 days. The cotton - yarn inventory of weaving factories was 5.48 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 days; the inventory of pure - cotton grey cloth was 37.1 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 days [9]. International Market - After the end of the macro super - week, subsequent economic data still need continuous attention, and the fundamental driving force is limited. The price of American cotton is under pressure, and the probability of an interest - rate cut in September is about 80%. Overall, the price of American cotton is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and if there are unexpected disturbances, the center of gravity may rise slightly [11]. Domestic Market - The driving logic has changed rapidly, and there is not much contradiction between supply and demand in the new domestic cotton year. The 09 contract of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly weakly, and the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and strongly in the long - term [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2509) and the cotton yarn futures contract (2509) both declined, with weekly decreases of about 0.7% and 0.73% respectively [7][21]. - Internationally, there is a lack of strong factors guiding the US cotton market, which is fluctuating. The third round of China - US trade negotiations will be held, and trade dynamics should be monitored [7]. - Domestically, cotton is in a de - stocking state, and the supply is tight before the new cotton is launched. The inventory of imported cotton in major ports has decreased, while the demand side shows obvious signs of the off - season in the textile industry, with reduced profitability and lower operating rates of spinning enterprises [7]. - In 2025, the overall cotton planting area in China has increased, but there is a high risk of heat damage to cotton in some areas of Xinjiang due to high - temperature weather [7]. - Overall, as prices rise, downstream procurement becomes more cautious, and the upward momentum of the market is weakening. However, the tight supply provides strong support, and the market is expected to adjust strongly. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and pay attention to weather and trade relations [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2509) and the cotton yarn futures contract (2509) declined this week, with decreases of about 0.7% and 0.73% respectively [7][21]. - **Market Outlook**: Internationally, the US cotton market is fluctuating. Domestically, cotton supply is tight before the new cotton is launched, and the textile industry is in the off - season. The overall market is expected to adjust strongly, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, macro factors, trade policies, and weather conditions [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the US cotton December contract decreased slightly this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.28%. As of July 15, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of ICE No. 2 cotton increased by 0.89% month - on - month, the non - commercial short positions decreased by 4.40% month - on - month, and the net position increased by 15.67% month - on - month [11]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: As of July 17, the net export sales of US cotton in the current market year decreased by 32,700 bales, and the net export sales in the next market year increased by 132,600 bales. The export shipments increased by 18% compared with the previous week. As of July 22, the Cotlook:A index was 78.65 cents per pound, a 1.01% decrease month - on - month [16]. - **Futures Market**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2509) and the cotton yarn futures contract (2509) declined this week. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 futures traders in cotton was - 39,736, and that in cotton yarn was - 394 lots. The number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,265, and that of cotton yarn was 96 [21][27][33]. - **Spot Market**: As of July 25, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,549 yuan per ton, and the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,740 yuan per ton. As of July 23, 2025, the CY index: OEC10s (air - spun yarn) was 14,800 yuan per ton [41][54]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of July 23, 2025, the import price index of cotton (FC Index):M: 1% quota port pick - up price was 13,728 yuan per ton, a 0.26% increase month - on - month; the sliding - scale duty port pick - up price was 14,438 yuan per ton, a 0.17% increase month - on - month. The import price index of cotton yarn (FCY Index): port pick - up price: C32S was 21,203 yuan per ton, a 0.09% increase month - on - month [58]. - **Imported Cotton Cost - Profit**: As of July 23, 2025, the cost - profit of imported cotton sliding - scale duty port pick - up price (M) was 1,105 yuan per ton, and that of imported cotton quota port pick - up price (1%) was 1,815 yuan per ton [62]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Supply Side**: As of June, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.8298 million tons, a 18.18% decrease month - on - month. As of June 15, the industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 930,100 tons, a 1.17% decrease month - on - month. In June 2025, China imported about 30,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of about 82.1% [66][70]. - **Mid - end Industry**: As of June 15, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 23.864 days, a 6.8% increase month - on - month, and the grey cloth inventory was 35.46 days, a 7.81% increase month - on - month [74]. - **Terminal Consumption**: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.2048207 billion US dollars, a 4.62% decrease month - on - month; the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.5266714 billion US dollars, a 12.44% increase month - on - month. The cumulative retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, needles and textiles were 742.59 billion yuan, a 20.98% increase month - on - month, and the cumulative year - on - year was 3.1%, a 6.06% decrease month - on - month [78][82]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market Correlation - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money options this week is provided, but specific data is not detailed in the summary part [83]. - **Stock Market**: Information about the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. is provided, but specific data is not detailed in the summary part [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings | Variety | Rating | | --- | --- | | Oils and Fats | Oscillating [5] | | Protein Meal | Oscillating [5] | | Corn/Starch | Oscillating [6][7] | | Live Pigs | Oscillating Strongly [7] | | Natural Rubber | Oscillating [8] | | Synthetic Rubber | Oscillating [11] | | Cotton | Oscillating [11] | | Sugar | Oscillating Weakly in the Long - Term, Oscillating in the Short - Term [13] | | Pulp | Oscillating Strongly [14][15] | | Logs | Oscillating Weakly [16] | 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including supply, demand, inventory, and price trends. It also evaluates the impact of policies, weather, and other factors on these products. Overall, the market shows a mixed trend with some products expected to be strong, some to oscillate, and some to be weak in different time frames [1][5][7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oils and Fats**: Yesterday, it oscillated and diverged, with a strong production increase expectation for Malaysian palm oil in July. International data shows a production increase in Malaysian palm oil from July 1 - 20, while exports decreased. The market is influenced by factors such as US soybean weather, trade agreements, and biodiesel demand [5]. - **Protein Meal**: Spot prices lagged behind the futures, and the market fluctuated more. Internationally, US soybeans are expected to oscillate due to mixed factors. Domestically, there is a short - term adjustment risk, but it is expected to be strong in the long run [5]. - **Corn/Starch**: Affected by the market atmosphere, both futures and spot prices oscillated strongly. Supply may tighten in July - August, but demand is weak due to low livestock and poultry breeding profits and losses in the deep - processing industry [6][7]. - **Live Pigs**: Driven by anti - involution sentiment, far - month futures rose. Supply is under pressure in the short, medium, and long terms, but demand and inventory show some changes. The market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term with policy influence [1][7]. - **Natural Rubber**: Market bullish sentiment persists, and rubber prices oscillate at a high level. The rubber market is affected by the overall commodity market sentiment, with short - term supply limited and demand relatively stable [8][9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market has entered an adjustment stage. Although it was affected by the overall commodity market adjustment, the price center may rise slightly in the short - term [11]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices oscillated strongly. In the short - term, low inventory supports prices, but upward momentum may be insufficient. In the medium - term, prices may be under pressure due to expected increased production [11]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices continued to rebound, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure. In the long - term, prices are expected to be weak due to expected supply increase, while in the short - term, they are expected to oscillate [13]. - **Pulp**: Driven by the macro - environment, it is recommended to go long. Although there are supply pressures in the medium - term, the macro - environment remains favorable [14][15]. - **Logs**: The market adjusted downward as the overall market adjusted. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the market is expected to maintain a supply - demand weak pattern in the medium - term [16]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report provides data on various agricultural products, including prices, production, inventory, and other aspects, to help analyze the market trends of these products [20][52][82][108][121][142][160]. 3.3 Rating Standards The report defines different rating standards, such as "strongly bullish", "oscillating strongly", "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", and "weakly bearish", along with the corresponding expected price change ranges and time periods [174].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Most of the industries in the report are rated as "oscillating", with the exception of the log industry which is rated as "oscillating weakly", and the sugar industry which is expected to "oscillate weakly" in the long - term and "oscillate" in the short - term [7][8][9][10][12][14][16][17][18]. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes multiple agricultural and related industries, finding that most industries are currently in an oscillating state. Some industries face supply - demand imbalances, such as the oversupply in the hog industry; others are affected by factors like weather, policies, and trade relations, such as the possible weather - related speculation in natural rubber and the impact of trade agreements on protein meal [1][7][8]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Oscillating and differentiating, with soybean and rapeseed oils oscillating strongly yesterday. - **Logic**: Good growth of US soybeans, a decrease in US soybean oil inventory, an increase in the expected demand for soybean oil in biodiesel, and the Brazilian biodiesel blending ratio increase. However, there is also pressure from the increase in palm oil production and the high inventory of domestic rapeseed oil [7]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: Due to the signing of the Sino - Australian trade memorandum of understanding, the double - meal oscillated and slightly declined. - **Logic**: Abroad, the growth of US soybeans is smooth, but the export prospects are worrying; Brazil's exports are still high. Domestically, the signing of the Sino - Australian memorandum implies new Australian seed imports, with supply pressure leading to weak spot prices, but concerns about Sino - US trade support the futures prices. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and be strong in the long - term [8]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: Spot transactions are light, and futures and spot prices oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: Futures prices rebounded slightly during the day and then fell back. On the spot side, supply at ports and deep - processing plants decreased, and there were price adjustments at some deep - processing plants. Deep - processing production and consumption data changed slightly, and there is a risk of supply shortage before the new grain is listed in large quantities [9][10]. 3.4 Hogs - **View**: Upstream slaughtering puts pressure on hog prices. - **Logic**: In the short - term, large hogs are being slaughtered at an accelerated pace, but the average weight has bottomed out and rebounded, and farmers are still reluctant to sell standard hogs. In the medium - term, the number of new - born piglets has been increasing, and there is room for an increase in hog slaughter in the second half of the year. In the long - term, the current production capacity is still high. The demand for pork has increased week - on - week, and the weight - reduction trend is blocked. In the short - term, the market has positive sentiment, but in the medium - and long - term, there is supply pressure in the third quarter [1][10]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: There may be weather - related speculation, but the expected increase is limited. - **Logic**: The rubber price rose rapidly at the end of trading yesterday, possibly due to weather - related speculation about a typhoon landing in Hainan Island or external capital. The trading logic follows the macro - sentiment, and the fundamentals are currently stable. The supply is affected by the rainy season, and the demand is relatively stable [12][13]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures price rebounded after a decline. - **Logic**: The futures price followed the commodity adjustment and then rebounded due to the impact of natural rubber. The upward driving force is not obvious, but there is support from the macro - environment and the improvement in butadiene trading. It is expected to oscillate within a range [14]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: Cotton prices increased with increased positions, breaking through the 14,000 - yuan mark. - **Logic**: In the medium - and long - term, the cotton market is loose, and the new cotton in Xinjiang is expected to increase in production. The demand is in the off - season, but the current commercial inventory is low. Yesterday, the futures price increased with increased positions, but there are multiple factors restricting further increases, and there is a risk of decline when new cotton is listed in large quantities [14]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: Sugar prices fluctuated within a narrow range. - **Logic**: In the medium - and long - term, sugar prices are under downward pressure due to the expected supply surplus in the 25/26 sugar - making season. In the short - term, the decline in Brazilian sugar production and high domestic sales rates support sugar prices, but the increase in Brazilian production and exports and domestic imports will increase supply pressure [16]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: The trend is dominated by the macro - environment, with a stalemate - type fluctuation. - **Logic**: The futures price fluctuated horizontally, and the supply - demand relationship is in a stalemate. The upward driving force comes from the macro - environment, but there is pressure at 5200 - 5300 yuan. In the short - term, there is a slight rebound space, and in the medium - term, there may be a phased increase, but the height is limited [17]. 3.10 Logs - **View**: There are few fundamental contradictions, and the short - term futures price oscillates. - **Logic**: Spot prices are weak due to the impact of delivery products, and the cost of importers has increased. Although it is the off - season, the overall demand is stable, and the market is in the bottom - building stage. There is no clear driving force for upward or downward movement in the short - term [18][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bearish on the cotton industry [1][2] Core Viewpoints - The July report is bearish as global cotton production and ending stocks have been revised upwards, and the supply in the new season remains relatively loose, with international cotton prices expected to fluctuate at low levels [1][2] - The cotton in the Northern Hemisphere's major producing countries is still in the growing stage, and weather conditions should continue to be monitored [1][2] - Although there are some positive signals in China-US trade negotiations, the specific situation remains to be observed, and China-US relations have a significant impact on the demand for US cotton in the new season [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 2025/26 Annual Supply and Demand Data Adjustments - **Production**: Global cotton production in the 25/26 season has been revised upwards by 311,000 tons month-on-month, with China's production up 218,000 tons to 6.75 million tons and still having room for further increase, and US production up 131,000 tons due to increased planting and harvest areas and favorable weather [1] - **Consumption**: Global cotton consumption in the 25/26 season has been revised upwards by 80,000 tons month-on-month, with China's consumption unchanged and Pakistan's up 65,000 tons. Overall consumption is stable, but trade conflicts are numerous, and China-US relations significantly affect US cotton demand [1] - **Imports and Exports**: Global cotton imports in the 25/26 season have decreased by 30,000 tons month-on-month, with Pakistan's imports up 131,000 tons and China's down 152,000 tons to 1.263 million tons. Global exports have decreased by 21,000 tons, with no adjustments to major exporters [1] - **Ending Stocks**: Global ending stocks in the 25/26 season have increased by 114,000 tons month-on-month, with the US up 66,000 tons, Pakistan up 43,000 tons, and both China and India up 11,000 tons [2] Global Cotton Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - **Production**: In 2025/26 (July), the total global cotton production is 25.783 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 311,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 323,000 tons [3] - **Consumption**: In 2025/26 (July), the total global cotton consumption is 25.718 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 80,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 309,000 tons [3] - **Imports**: In 2025/26 (July), the total global cotton imports are 9.728 million tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 30,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 450,000 tons [3] - **Exports**: In 2025/26 (July), the total global cotton exports are 9.73 million tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 21,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 369,000 tons [3] - **Ending Stocks**: In 2025/26 (July), the total global ending stocks are 16.721 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 114,000 tons [3]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the historical and cultural significance of Xinjiang while also recognizing its current economic development and future potential [1][4][6] Economic Development - Xinjiang is experiencing significant economic achievements, with a focus on industrial development and open trade at its ports, indicating a shift towards a more prosperous future [1][4] - The region's agricultural sector, particularly cotton and other crops, is thriving, contributing to economic benefits and showcasing the land's potential [6] Historical Context - The historical significance of the Silk Road is highlighted, illustrating how it facilitated cultural exchange and economic interaction among civilizations [2][7] - The article draws parallels between historical figures like Zhang Qian and contemporary efforts to enhance connectivity and trade, suggesting that historical lessons can inform current strategies [4][5] Cultural Value - The interplay between commercial and cultural values is emphasized, with Xinjiang serving as a hub for cultural exchange and cooperation among diverse ethnic groups [7] - The region's rich cultural heritage and natural beauty are presented as assets that enhance its appeal for tourism and investment [6][7] Long-term Strategy - The concept of "long-termism" is discussed as a strategic approach to addressing both immediate challenges and future opportunities in Xinjiang [4][6] - The establishment of protected areas for cultural and ecological preservation is seen as a forward-thinking strategy that aligns with sustainable development goals [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main Zhengzhou cotton 2509 contract rose by about 0.15%, while the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract fell by 0.52%. Internationally, weak US cotton weekly export sales and favorable weather for crop growth limited the rebound of US cotton. Domestically, the textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with poor new orders and a slow decline in the overall operating rate. Cotton is in the process of destocking, but the destocking speed is slow due to the off - season, showing a slightly stronger overall oscillation. The high - temperature weather in Xinjiang poses a risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Analysis**: The main Zhengzhou cotton 2509 contract rose by about 0.15% this week, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract fell by 0.52% [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Weak US cotton export sales, favorable weather for growth and a rise in the good - quality rate limited the rebound of US cotton. In China, the textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with poor new orders and a slow decline in the operating rate. Cotton is destocking slowly. The high - temperature weather in Xinjiang poses risks [6]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, macro factors, trade policies, and weather factors [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the US cotton December contract fell by about 1.28% this week. As of June 24, 2025, the non - commercial long - position of ICE No. 2 cotton increased by 5.61% month - on - month, the non - commercial short - position decreased by 1.86% month - on - month, and the CFTC net position increased by 14.91% month - on - month [9]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: For the week ending June 26, US current - market - year cotton export sales increased by 23,700 bales, a 13% decrease from the previous week and a 66% decrease from the four - week average. Next - market - year export sales increased by 106,600 bales. US cotton export shipments were 255,800 bales, a 39% increase from the previous week and a 9% increase from the four - week average. As of July 1, 2025, the Cotlook:A index was 78.9 cents per pound, a 1.56% decrease month - on - month [14]. - **Futures Market**: The main Zhengzhou cotton 2509 contract rose by about 0.15% this week, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract fell by 0.52%. As of this week, the top - 20 net position of cotton futures was - 27,247, and that of cotton yarn futures was - 113. The cotton futures warehouse receipt was 10,067, and the cotton yarn futures warehouse receipt was 2 [17][24][30]. - **Spot Market**: As of July 4, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,200 yuan per ton, and the Chinese cotton yarn spot C32S index price was 20,420 yuan per ton. As of July 3, 2025, the CY index:OEC10s (rotor yarn) was 14,560 yuan per ton [35][45]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of July 2, 2025, the imported cotton price index (FC Index):M:1% quota port pick - up price was 13,667 yuan per ton, a 0.15% decrease month - on - month; the sliding - scale duty port pick - up price was 14,400 yuan per ton, a 0.06% decrease month - on - month. As of June 25, 2025, the imported cotton yarn price index (FCY Index):port pick - up price:C32S was 20,997 yuan per ton, a 0.10% increase month - on - month [51]. - **Imported Cotton Cost - Profit**: As of July 2, 2025, the cost - profit of imported cotton sliding - scale duty port pick - up price (M) was 763 yuan per ton; the cost - profit of imported cotton quota port pick - up price (1%) was 1,496 yuan per ton [55]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Supply Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory**: As of May, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 3.4587 million tons, a 16.71% decrease month - on - month and an 8.36% decrease year - on - year. As of the end of May, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 941,100 tons, a 13,100 - ton decrease month - on - month [59]. - **Supply Side - Imported Cotton Volume**: In May 2025, China imported about 40,000 tons of cotton, a 20,000 - ton decrease month - on - month and an 86.3% decrease year - on - year. From September 2024 to May 2025, China imported about 920,000 tons of cotton. In May 2025, China's cotton yarn import volume was 100,000 tons, a 14.5% decrease year - on - year and a 16.67% decrease month - on - month [63]. - **Mid - end Industry - Demand Side**: As of the end of May, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 22.34 days, an increase of 1.36 days from the previous month. The grey fabric inventory was 31.2 days, an increase of 1.72 days from the previous month [67]. - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative export of textile and clothing was 838.33 billion yuan, a 2.1% increase year - on - year. In May, the export of textile and clothing was 188.84 billion yuan, a 0.2% increase year - on - year and an 8.9% increase month - on - month. As of May 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles were 613.8 billion yuan, a 3.3% increase year - on - year [71][73]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market - related Market - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week is presented, but no specific data is given [75]. - **Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd.**: Information about the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. is presented, but no specific data is given [80].

Group 1: Technological Innovation in Agriculture - The transformation of barren land into productive cotton fields in Xinjiang is attributed to advanced agricultural technologies, including smart monitoring and irrigation systems [2][3] - The implementation of "dark pipe salt drainage" and "water-saving irrigation" technologies has significantly improved land utilization and increased cotton yield from over 200 kg to 450 kg per mu, effectively doubling production [3] - The introduction of high-efficiency drip irrigation systems has reduced the number of valves needed for irrigation, leading to cost savings of approximately 1,000 yuan per valve [3] Group 2: Industrial Applications of Cotton - Xinjiang Yuan Yi Technology Co., Ltd. has developed a new type of ultra-thin steel paper from cotton, achieving a thickness of only 0.2 mm, which is considered a leading product in the domestic market [4] - The company invests 20% of its profits annually into R&D, collaborating with universities to overcome manufacturing challenges, resulting in increased product value and annual sales of around 5 million yuan [4] - The steel paper produced is primarily used in high-tech industries such as 5G base station construction and aerospace, capturing a 45% market share domestically and expanding into international markets [4] Group 3: Logistics and Export - Xinjiang's logistics network has evolved to facilitate the efficient export of cotton, connecting domestic production with international markets through a comprehensive transportation system [5][6] - The establishment of the International Public-Rail Combined Transport Logistics Park in Jinghe County has enhanced trade with Central Asian countries and Europe, reducing transportation costs and improving efficiency [6] - The integration of road and rail transport has streamlined the export process, allowing for quicker delivery of cotton and textile products to neighboring countries [6] Group 4: Overall Impact - The advancements in technology and logistics reflect the broader trend of industrial upgrading in Xinjiang's cotton sector, showcasing the region's potential for high-quality development [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Weakening with fluctuations [5] - **Protein Meal**: Fluctuating [7] - **Corn and Starch**: Fluctuating [8][9] - **Hogs**: Fluctuating [2][9] - **Natural Rubber**: Fluctuating horizontally [9][10][11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Maintaining range-bound fluctuations [12] - **Cotton**: Fluctuating in the short term, with a reference range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton [13] - **Sugar**: Weakening with fluctuations in the long term, rebounding with fluctuations in the short term [14][16] - **Pulp**: Fluctuating, with a weakening bias [17] - **Logs**: Weakening with fluctuations [18] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall**: The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple agricultural products, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs. It assesses the supply - demand situation, price trends, and future outlooks for each product [2][5][7][8][9][10][13][14][17][18]. - **Short - term Outlook**: Most products are expected to show a trend of fluctuating, with some having a weakening or strengthening bias. For example, oils and fats are expected to weaken with fluctuations, while protein meal is expected to fluctuate [5][7]. - **Long - term Outlook**: Some products, such as hogs and sugar, are in a downward cycle or face supply - driven downward pressure in the long term [2][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Industry Information**: In 2025, Canada's rapeseed planting area decreased by 2.5% year - on - year. The US soybean planting is completed, and its growth is good. CNPE will raise Brazil's biodiesel blending ratio from 14% to 15% on August 1. China's imported soybean arrivals are large, and domestic soybean oil inventory is rising. The expected increase in palm oil production in June is limited, and export expectations are optimistic. Domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slowly declining but remains high [5]. - **Logic**: Due to technical rebounds, last Friday, US soybeans fluctuated strongly, while US soybean oil fluctuated weakly. Yesterday, China's three major oils and fats fluctuated weakly. Considering the macro - environment and industrial factors, oils and fats are expected to continue to weaken with fluctuations [5]. - **Outlook**: Oils and fats may continue to weaken with fluctuations in the near term, but the effectiveness of the lower technical support needs attention [5]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **Industry Information**: On June 30, 2025, international soybean trade premiums and discounts showed different changes. China's imported soybean crushing profit increased week - on - week and year - on - year [6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, US soybeans are in a range - bound fluctuation. Domestically, soybean arrivals are increasing, oil mill inventories are rising, and downstream replenishment is insufficient, leading to supply pressure. In the long term, the consumption demand for soybean meal may increase steadily [7]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans are expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations. Domestic soybean meal inventories continue to accumulate. Oil mills can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or price at low prices after price drops [7]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Industry Information**: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port remained unchanged, and the domestic average corn price increased by 4 yuan/ton [8]. - **Logic**: Today, China's corn prices mainly rose. The remaining vehicles at North China's deep - processing enterprises decreased due to continuous rainy weather, and the purchase price increased. The demand for corn is being squeezed by wheat, and there are rumors of policy grain auctions [8][9]. - **Outlook**: Driven by the expected supply - demand gap, the price has an upward trend, but there may be corrections due to potential negative impacts from policy grain auctions [9]. 3.4 Hogs - **Industry Information**: On June 30, the spot price of hogs in Henan increased by 0.6% month - on - month, while the futures closing price decreased by 0.96% month - on - month [9]. - **Logic**: At the end of the month, the slaughter rhythm of farms slowed down, and the spot price rose, but the futures faced high - capacity and high - inventory pressure. In the short term, the average slaughter weight is decreasing, but the utilization rate of fattening pens is increasing. In the long term, the production capacity remains high, and the supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year [2][9]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate. Recently, the average slaughter weight is slowly decreasing, but farmers' fattening profit still attracts them to hold back hogs. Currently in the off - season of consumption, the price mainly fluctuates [2][9]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Industry Information**: On June 30, the prices of various rubber products in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone and the Thai raw material market showed different changes [9][10]. - **Logic**: The external environment has changed little, and rubber prices are fluctuating horizontally. The raw material price is relatively firm, providing strong support at the bottom. The supply is expected to increase, while the demand is expected to decrease [10][11]. - **Outlook**: Before the fundamentals provide clear guidance, rubber prices may continue to fluctuate with the overall commodity market [11]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Industry Information**: The spot prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene in different regions showed different changes [12]. - **Logic**: Recently, the macro - sentiment has been relatively positive, and the BR market has maintained range - bound fluctuations. The overall operating level has dropped to the lowest since May, and inventories have slightly increased [12]. - **Outlook**: The external situation may be temporarily controllable, and the market correction may not be over. Attention should be paid to the previous low support [12]. 3.7 Cotton - **Industry Information**: As of June 30, the number of registered cotton warrants in the 24/25 season was 10,273, and the closing price of Zhengzhou cotton 09 was 13,740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [13]. - **Logic**: In the 25/26 season, cotton production in China and other major producing countries is expected to increase. The downstream is in the off - season, and the demand is weak. The current commercial inventory is at a relatively low level, which provides support for the price [13]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, cotton prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton [13]. 3.8 Sugar - **Industry Information**: As of June 30, the closing price of Zhengzhou sugar 09 was 5,807 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton [14]. - **Logic**: Domestically, the 24/25 sugar production season has ended, and the sales rate is high, but there is an expectation of concentrated arrivals of imported sugar. Internationally, the new sugar seasons in Brazil, India, and Thailand are expected to have increased production [14][16]. - **Outlook**: In the long term, due to the expected increase in supply, sugar prices are expected to weaken with fluctuations. In the short term, they are expected to rebound with fluctuations [16]. 3.9 Pulp - **Industry Information**: On the previous trading day, the prices of various pulp products in Shandong showed different changes [17]. - **Logic**: Pulp imports remain high, and prices are in a downward trend. Demand is in the off - season, and downstream paper enterprises' inventories are increasing. The US dollar price is continuously falling, and the pulp market is facing downward pressure [17]. - **Outlook**: Due to weak supply - demand and potential positive impacts from changes in delivery rules, pulp futures are expected to fluctuate [17]. 3.10 Logs - **Industry Information**: The spot prices of logs in Jiangsu and Shandong remained stable, and the futures price of LG2507 decreased [18]. - **Logic**: Yesterday was the last trading day before the first log contract LG2507 entered the delivery month, and the price fluctuated and declined. The total inventory decreased, and the market is in the off - season. In the short term, the fundamentals are in a weak balance [18]. - **Outlook**: In the medium term, the market will gradually return to being dominated by fundamentals, and the far - month prices are expected to be weak [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - Cotton futures prices lacked effective drivers and retreated after a rally. The cotton market faced a complex situation with various factors influencing supply and demand, and the overall market sentiment was neutral [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 13,740 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.15% and a night - session closing price of 13,730 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.07%. CY2509 closed at 19,990 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.57% and a night - session closing price of 20,010 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.10%. ICE US cotton 12 closed at 68.04 cents/pound with a decline of 1.85%. The trading volume of CF2509 was 456,550 lots, an increase of 205,573 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 863,411 lots, a decrease of 12,095 lots. The trading volume of CY2509 was 11,405 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 21,776 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 10,273, a decrease of 29, and the effective forecast was 301, an increase of 6. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 2, unchanged, and the effective forecast was 3, a decrease of 1 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,060 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan or 0.33% compared to the previous day. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,760 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price in Shandong was 15,153 yuan/ton, an increase of 38 yuan or 0.25%. The price in Hebei was 15,109 yuan/ton, an increase of 91 yuan or 0.61%. The 3128B index was 15,154 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan or 0.30%. The international cotton index M was 76.83 cents/pound, an increase of 1 cent or 0.73%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 20,420 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan or 0.20%, and the arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 21,910 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan or - 0.10% [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton compared to the previous day's spread. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 increased by 70 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Local cotton spot trading was slightly better than last week, with most transactions based on locked basis prices. The overall basis remained stable. There were more pre - sale quotes for new cotton in the 2025/26 season in Xinjiang [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The price increase of pure - cotton yarn was less than that of cotton, and the cash - flow losses of spinning enterprises widened. Downstream demand was weak, and spinning enterprises were expected to continue to accumulate inventory. The all - cotton grey fabric market had light trading, and many fabric mills continued to cut production [2] - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures fell yesterday because the US cotton planting area in the 2025/26 season was 10.12 million acres, higher than the market average forecast of 9.8 million acres and the USDA's June supply - demand report forecast of 9.87 million acres. As of June 29, the US cotton sowing progress was 95%, compared with 97% in the same period last year and a 5 - year average of 98%. The good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 50%, up from 47% the previous week and the same as 50% in the same period last year [3][4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton was 0, indicating a neutral outlook [5]