Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the caustic soda industry is "Weak" [3] Core View of the Report - The high production and high inventory pattern of caustic soda continues, and the market keeps shorting the chlor-alkali profit. The influence of alumina's production startup and reduction expectations on caustic soda can basically offset each other. During winter, the supply-demand gap caused by stockpiling is limited under high operation. Non-aluminum downstream support is limited and exports are under pressure, increasing domestic supply pressure. The valuation of caustic soda is always suppressed by the alumina production reduction expectation. Although the price reduction of liquid chlorine can raise the cost of caustic soda, the rebound space is limited without production cuts by manufacturers. In the long run, the alumina production reduction will lead to negative feedback in the industrial chain [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On November 13, 2025, the futures price of the 01 contract was 2344, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 780, the spot 32% caustic soda in Shandong converted to the futures price was 2438, and the basis was 94 [1] Spot News - On November 12, the caustic soda market price in Shandong was partially stable, and some markets saw a slight increase after inventory decline. The supply in Shandong has both increases and decreases, and the short-term impact is unclear. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [2] Market Condition Analysis - The high production and high inventory pattern of caustic soda continues, and the market keeps shorting the chlor-alkali profit. From the demand side, the influence of alumina's production startup and reduction expectations on caustic soda can basically offset each other. During winter, the supply-demand gap caused by stockpiling is limited under high operation. Non-aluminum downstream support is limited and exports are under pressure, increasing domestic supply pressure. The valuation of caustic soda is always suppressed by the alumina production reduction expectation. Although the price reduction of liquid chlorine can raise the cost of caustic soda, it can only lead to a low-level valuation repair. Without production cuts by manufacturers, the rebound space of caustic soda is always limited. In the long run, the alumina production reduction will lead to negative feedback in the industrial chain [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is -1, indicating a "Weak" trend [3]

Company Overview - Taihe Technology (SZ 300801) announced a research meeting with Western Securities on November 12, 2025, from 15:00 to 16:30, with participation from the Chairman and Chief Engineer Cheng Zhongfa, and the Secretary of the Board and CFO Shi Hui [1] Revenue Composition - For the year 2024, Taihe Technology's revenue composition is as follows: Water treatment industry accounts for 86.17%, Chlor-alkali industry accounts for 13.42%, and other sectors account for 0.41% [1] Market Capitalization - As of the report, Taihe Technology has a market capitalization of 7.7 billion yuan [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PVC shows a weak and volatile trend. The supply side has a slight reduction in supply due to new device maintenance, but new production capacity is gradually reaching full production, resulting in an abundant supply. The demand side has a decline in downstream开工 and general purchasing sentiment. The export side exchanges volume for price, and export orders are weakening. The inventory is high, and the futures price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to relevant policies in the future [3]. - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. The supply side has an increase in开工 due to less device maintenance, and attention should be paid to the new production capacity. The demand side has stable orders from Shandong alumina, but the overall demand may weaken in the off - season. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the cost support still exists. Attention should be paid to the procurement demand of new alumina plants [3]. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures Price and Basis**: The closing price of PVC's main contract is 4,572 yuan/ton (-42), the East China basis is -42 yuan/ton (+32), and the South China basis is 18 yuan/ton (+22) [1]. - **Spot Price**: The East China calcium carbide method offers 4,530 yuan/ton (-10), and the South China calcium carbide method offers 4,590 yuan/ton (-20) [1]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The semi - coke price is 800 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,830 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is -100 yuan/ton (+0), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit is -769 yuan/ton (-6), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit is -465 yuan/ton (+79), and the PVC export profit is 8.3 dollars/ton (+3.5) [1]. - **Inventory and Capacity Utilization**: The in - plant PVC inventory is 33.5 tons (-0.3), the social PVC inventory is 54.6 tons (+0.1), the PVC calcium carbide method capacity utilization is 80.17% (+3.70%), the PVC ethylene method capacity utilization is 77.23% (-1.27%), and the overall PVC capacity utilization is 79.28% (+2.19%) [1]. - **Downstream Orders**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 74.2 tons (-3.2) [1]. Caustic Soda - **Futures Price and Basis**: The closing price of SH's main contract is 2,357 yuan/ton (+8), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 112 yuan/ton (-39) [1]. - **Spot Price**: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 790 yuan/ton (-10), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,250 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,478 yuan/ton (-31), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 854.5 yuan/ton (+8.8), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is -7.47 yuan/ton (-51.25), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 811.83 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - **Inventory and Capacity Utilization**: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 41.48 tons (-2.78), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.90 tons (+0.17), and the caustic soda capacity utilization is 84.80% (+0.50%) [2]. - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: The alumina capacity utilization is 85.25% (-0.61%), the dyeing and printing capacity utilization in East China is 68.06% (+0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber capacity utilization is 89.60% (-0.06%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The supply side has a slight reduction in supply due to new device maintenance, but new production capacity is gradually reaching full production, resulting in an abundant supply [3]. - The demand side has a decline in downstream开工, and the overall purchasing sentiment is general. The export side exchanges volume for price, and export orders are weakening. The inventory is high, and the futures price is under pressure [3]. Caustic Soda - The supply side has an increase in开工 due to less device maintenance, and attention should be paid to the new production capacity [3]. - The demand side has stable orders from Shandong alumina, but the overall demand may weaken in the off - season. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the cost support still exists. Attention should be paid to the procurement demand of new alumina plants [3]. Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Range - bound and volatile, choose the right time for cash - and - carry arbitrage [4]. - Inter - delivery: Wait and see [4]. - Inter - commodity: None [4]. Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Range - bound and volatile [5]. - Inter - delivery: Go long on SH12 and short on SH01 when the price difference is low [5]. - Inter - commodity: None [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Xinjinlu's stock has shown significant volatility, with a year-to-date increase of 79.17% and recent trading activity indicating a mixed performance in terms of net inflow and outflow of funds [1][2] - As of November 12, Xinjinlu's stock price was 6.45 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 4.183 billion yuan and a trading volume of 24.5733 million yuan [1] - The company has been active in the stock market, appearing on the "龙虎榜" (Dragon and Tiger List) 10 times this year, with the most recent appearance on May 27, where it recorded a net buy of -61.1593 million yuan [1] Group 2 - Xinjinlu's main business involves the production and operation of chlor-alkali chemicals and plastic products, with revenue composition being 41.61% from resin products, 38.43% from alkali products, and 19.97% from other sources [1] - The company operates in the basic chemical industry, specifically in the chlor-alkali sector, and is associated with various concept sectors including low-priced stocks, small-cap stocks, graphene, non-ferrous copper, and aerospace military [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, Xinjinlu reported an operating income of 1.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.82%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -78.4945 million yuan, a decline of 129.38% [2] Group 3 - Xinjinlu has cumulatively distributed 124 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with no dividends paid in the last three years [3]

烧碱：震荡为主 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 01合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2357 780 2438 81 2025 年 11 月 12 日 以山东地区为基准，11 月 11 日山东液碱市场成交不佳，部分涨库存企业价格继续走跌，虽有省外订单 签订，但预计支撑有限。 【市场状况分析】 烧碱高产量、高库存格局延续，市场持续做空氯碱利润。从需求端看，考虑到氧化铝行业未来可能减产 装置耗碱量偏高，因此氧化铝投产预期和减产预期对烧碱带来的影响基本上可以相抵消。而冬季本身是氯 碱企业检修淡季，高开工情况下，囤货带来的供需缺口或有限。此外，非铝下游支撑有限，同时出口承压， 导致国内供应压力进一步增大。 整体看，烧碱估值高度始终受氧化铝减产预期压制。成本端，液氯降价虽然能导致烧碱成本抬升，但只 能导致低位估值修复，厂家不减产，烧碱反弹空间始终有限。长期而言，氧化铝减产问题终究会导致产业链 负反馈。 【趋势强度】 烧碱趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类 ...

氯碱日报 | 2025-11-11 供需偏弱，PVC震荡探底 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4614元/吨（+3）；华东基差-74元/吨（-33）;华南基差-4元/吨（-13）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4540元/吨（-30）；华南电石法报价4610元/吨（-10）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格800元/吨（+0）；电石价格2830元/吨（+0）；电石利润-100元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-769元/吨（-6）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-465元/吨（+79）；PVC出口利润4.8美元/吨（-0.3）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存33.5万吨（-0.3）；PVC社会库存54.6万吨（+0.1）；PVC电石法开工率80.17%（+3.70%）； PVC乙烯法开工率77.23%（-1.27%）；PVC开工率79.28%（+2.19%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量74.2万吨（-3.2）。 上游生产利润：山东烧碱单品种利润1509元/吨（+0）；山东氯碱综合利润（0.8吨液氯）845.8元/吨（-40.0）；山东 氯碱综合利润（1吨PVC）43.78元/吨（-10.0 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Xinjin Road's stock has shown significant growth this year, with an 81.11% increase, and recent trading activity indicates a mixed sentiment among investors [1][2] - As of November 11, Xinjin Road's stock price reached 6.52 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 4.229 billion CNY [1] - The company has experienced a net outflow of main funds amounting to 7.7577 million CNY, with large orders showing a higher selling volume compared to buying [1] Group 2 - Xinjin Road's main business involves the production and operation of chlor-alkali chemicals and plastic products, with revenue composition being 41.61% from resin products, 38.43% from alkali products, and 19.97% from others [1] - The company belongs to the basic chemical industry, specifically in the chlor-alkali sector, and is associated with various concept sectors including low-priced stocks and aerospace military [2] - As of October 20, the number of shareholders decreased by 6.20% to 46,400, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 6.61% to 13,086 shares [2] Group 3 - Xinjin Road has distributed a total of 124 million CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with no dividends paid in the last three years [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report - The high - production and high - inventory pattern of caustic soda continues, and the market keeps shorting the chlor - alkali profit. The alumina production and reduction expectations have offsetting effects on caustic soda. The winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, and the supply - demand gap caused by stockpiling may be limited. Non - aluminum downstream support is limited, and exports are under pressure, increasing domestic supply pressure. The valuation of caustic soda is always suppressed by the alumina reduction expectation. The cost increase due to liquid chlorine price reduction can only lead to a low - level valuation repair, and the rebound space of caustic soda is limited without production cuts. In the long run, alumina production reduction will cause negative feedback in the industrial chain. [2] 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - On November 11, 2025, the 01 contract futures price of caustic soda was 2349, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 780, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda folded to the futures price was 2438, and the basis was 89. [1] [Spot News] - On November 10, the caustic soda market in Shandong showed a differentiated trend. In the western market, due to increased supply and poor demand, some transaction prices continued to decline. In the eastern market, the sales were average, and it remained stable for the time being supported by alumina. [2] [Market Condition Analysis] - The high - production and high - inventory pattern of caustic soda persists, and the market is shorting the chlor - alkali profit. Alumina's production and reduction expectations offset each other's impact on caustic soda. The winter is an off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, and the supply - demand gap caused by stockpiling is limited. Non - aluminum downstream support is weak, and exports face pressure, increasing domestic supply pressure. The valuation of caustic soda is suppressed by alumina production reduction expectations. Cost increase from liquid chlorine price reduction can only repair low - level valuations, and the rebound space is limited without production cuts. Long - term alumina production reduction will cause negative feedback in the industrial chain. [2] [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral trend. [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【烧碱周报（SH ）】 现货价格企稳，盘面震荡偏弱 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-10 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 烧碱 :现货价格企稳，盘面震荡偏弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）本周检修有所减少，产量有所上升。周度国内烧碱产量环比上涨0.8万吨至84万吨;（2）20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为84.8%，较上 周环比+0.5%。分区域来看，西北、东北、华南负荷均有上升，其中东北涨幅最大+27.9%至88.9%；华南+5.8%至89.1%。华北、华中有装置检修、减产， | | | | 开工下滑，华北-1.5%至76.5%，华中-3.0%至79.1%，其中山东-1.9%至87.2%。 | | 需求 | 中性 | （1）氧化铝开工有 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. Core Views Natural Rubber - The natural rubber market is expected to enter a seasonal inventory accumulation cycle, with short - term price range - bound. If raw material supply is smooth, there is further downward potential; if not, prices are expected to range between 15,000 - 15,500 [1]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the long - term supply - demand pattern is bearish, and short - term rebounds should be treated as opportunities to go short. For glass, short - term long opportunities can be seized on dips, but the industry still needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem [3]. Methanol - The methanol market is trading on the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction being high port inventories. Before Iranian gas restrictions, the weak reality will continue to be priced in [6]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply is stable, but November's supply - demand is expected to be loose. PTA is expected to be in a tight - balance in the short - term but loose in the medium - term. Ethylene glycol is under pressure due to expected high inventory accumulation. Short - fiber and bottle - chip markets also face supply - demand challenges [8]. Polyolefins - Polypropylene and polyethylene both show increasing supply and demand, but the market still faces pressure from new capacity and supply increases [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak in the short - term due to increased supply and weak demand. PVC is in an over - supply situation, and prices are expected to continue to be weak [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene supply is expected to be loose, and price drivers are weak. Styrene supply - demand may be in a tight - balance, but cost support is insufficient [14]. Summary by Directory Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber in Shanghai rose 200 yuan/ton to 14,550 yuan/ton, with a 1.39% increase. The whole - latex basis increased by 250 yuan/ton to - 445 yuan/ton, a 35.97% rise [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 115 yuan/ton, a 17.86% decline [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In August, Thailand's production decreased by 260,000 tons to 4.515 million tons, a 5.45% drop. China's production increased by 86,000 tons to 1.223 million tons [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded area inventory increased by 15,439 tons to 447,668 tons, a 3.57% increase [1]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: Glass 2601 decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,091 yuan/ton, a 0.91% decline [3]. - **Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: Soda Ash 2605 increased by 1 yuan/ton to 1,294 yuan/ton, a 0.08% increase [3]. - **Production Volumes**: Soda ash well - working rate decreased by 1.72% to 86.89% [3]. - **Inventory**: Soda ash factory inventory increased by 42,000 tons to 1.702 million tons, a 2.54% increase [3]. Methanol - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 closed at 2,112 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton, a 0.61% decline [4]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 1.04% to 38.641% [5]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.41% to 76.09% [6]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (January) rose 0.25 dollars/barrel to 63.63 dollars/barrel, a 0.4% increase [8]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX was 698 dollars/ton, up 0.1% [8]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: PTA East - China spot price rose 35 yuan/ton to 4,575 yuan/ton, a 0.8% increase [8]. - **MEG Port Inventory and Arrival Expectations**: MEG port inventory increased by 7.5% to 56.2 million tons [8]. Polyolefins - **Prices**: L2601 closed at 6,802 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton, a 0.04% decline [11]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 17.84% to 49.0 million tons [11]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate increased by 2.13% to 82.6% [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: SH2601 decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 2,331 yuan/ton, a 0.5% decline [13]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 3.3% to 88.3% [13]. - **Demand**: Alumina industry operating rate decreased by 0.3% to 82.2% [13]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda East - China factory inventory increased by 18.9% to 22.3 million tons [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices**: CFR China pure benzene was 664 dollars/ton, up 0.2% [14]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory increased, with supply pressure rising [14]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Caprolactam operating rate remained unchanged at 86.1% [14].