氯碱周报 S H ：山东区域 库存继续累 库 ， 不排除降价风险 V ：供需矛盾较难解决 ， 价格上行存压制 广发期货研究所 蒋诗语 投资咨询资格：Z0017002 本报告及路演当中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明 观点及策略建议 ◼ 烧碱主要观点：本周烧碱盘面止跌企稳，周五大幅反弹。下周预计供应量增加，企业样本厂家开工上调。主力下游方面，近期海内外氧化铝价格持续下跌导致国内氧化铝企业 利润空间不断缩窄，现货价格支撑力度偏弱。受山东主力下游采购价走跌下游采买谨慎影响，华北区域库存上行；华东区域企业检修及降负装置尚未恢复，货源偏紧，且非铝需求 刚需跟进，库存呈现下滑。下周来看，山东市场由于国庆长假临近，短期省内液碱库存需要时间释放，且目前供应高位，主要下游卸货不畅下，不排除继续价格下调的可能。 ◼ PVC主要观点：本周pvc盘面受到宏观转暖提振企稳反弹。但基本面供需矛盾依然较难缓解，供应端方面，下周检修结束企业较多，产量预期增加。需求端，下游制品开工率提 升有限，部分已经完成备货，因此对高价抵触，采购积极性一般。成本端原料电石维持上行趋势，乙烯价格维稳，成本端维持底部支撑。预计9-10月旺 ...

Company Overview - Ningxia Yinglite Chemical Co., Ltd. is located in Shizuishan City, Ningxia, and was established on November 12, 1996, with its listing date on November 20, 1996 [1] - The company’s main business includes the production and sales of calcium carbide, lime nitrogen, dicyandiamide, caustic soda, polyvinyl chloride resin, liquid chlorine, hydrochloric acid, and other related products, as well as electricity and heat production [1] Financial Performance - For the period from January to June 2025, Yinglite reported operating revenue of 867 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.00%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -156 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.92% [2] - The company has cumulatively distributed 608 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with no dividends distributed in the past three years [3] Stock Performance - As of September 22, Yinglite's stock price decreased by 2.03%, trading at 8.21 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 3.239 billion yuan [1] - Year-to-date, the stock price has increased by 5.53%, but it has decreased by 4.53% over the last five trading days, 9.58% over the last twenty days, and 7.44% over the last sixty days [1] - The number of shareholders as of September 10 is 23,400, a decrease of 0.88% from the previous period, with an average of 12,973 circulating shares per person, an increase of 0.89% [2] Capital Flow - In terms of capital flow, there was a net outflow of 2.2172 million yuan from main funds, with large orders buying 2.3678 million yuan (12.39% of total) and selling 4.5851 million yuan (23.99% of total) [1] Business Segmentation - The main revenue composition of Yinglite includes PVC (52.21%), caustic soda (28.20%), E-PVC (12.83%), and other chemical products (2.35%), with calcium carbide contributing 2.24% and electricity accounting for 0.67% [1] - The company belongs to the Shenwan industry classification of basic chemicals - chemical raw materials - chlor-alkali [1]

Group 1: Main Points and Strategy Overview - The latest futures price of caustic soda is 2580 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.78%; the price of Shandong 32% caustic soda is 2406.25 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 15.38%; the price of Shandong 50% caustic soda is 1250 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 7.41% [5]. - China's caustic soda production is 820,000 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.34%; North China's production is 270,000 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.11%; Northwest China's production is 220,000 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 4.44% [5]. - China's caustic soda operating rate is 81.9%, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.8%; Shandong's operating rate is 0.89, with a week-on-week increase of 2.01% [5]. - The inventory of liquid caustic soda is 378,300 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 6.03%; the inventory of flake caustic soda is 22,100 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 3.27%; Shandong's inventory is 29,500 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 17.6% [5]. - The alumina operating rate is 86.23%, with a week-on-week increase of 1.2%; Shandong's alumina operating rate is 88.39%, with no change from the previous week; the viscose staple fiber operating rate is 89.52%, with a week-on-week increase of 1.99%; the chemical pulp operating rate is 86.4%, with a week-on-week increase of 6.27%; the printing and dyeing operating rate is 65.76%, with no change from the previous week [5]. - Shandong's chlor-alkali profit is 240.09 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 35.17%; Northwest China's chlor-alkali profit is 525.05 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.79% [5]. Group 2: Futures and Spot Market Review - The report presents the historical trends of caustic soda futures prices, spot prices, basis, and other indicators through multiple charts [8][11][13][16][19][20][24][27][28][29][30]. Group 3: Caustic Soda Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - The report shows the historical trends of caustic soda capacity utilization, device loss, inventory, and other indicators through multiple charts [33][36][38][40][56][58][60][62][64][66][67][68][69][70][73]. - Supply-side positives: Formosa Plastics will conduct large-scale maintenance from the 16th to the 23rd, which will have a short-term driving effect on the surrounding area; Minxiang and Dadi have fully loaded their 50% caustic soda production; Guangxi alumina plants will start to stockpile caustic soda in October [75][76]. - Supply-side negatives: The FOB export transaction price of caustic soda in East China is between 390 - 410, and the transaction price of liquid caustic soda in Northeast Asia is between 410 - 420; Haili has fully loaded its production capacity; Binzhou's maintenance has been postponed; Weiqiao has vehicle queuing; Tianjin Bohua's device will be fully loaded in the second half of the month, and attention should be paid to Wenfeng's procurement [75][77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: Last week, the caustic soda futures stopped falling and stabilized, with a sharp rebound on Friday. Next week, the supply is expected to increase, and the operating rate of sample manufacturers will rise. The profit margin of domestic alumina enterprises is narrowing, and the support for spot prices is weak. The inventory in North China is rising, while that in East China is falling. In the Shandong market, due to the approaching National Day holiday, there may be a price cut in the short - term [2]. - **PVC**: Last week, the PVC futures rebounded due to macro - warming, but the supply - demand contradiction is still difficult to ease. Next week, the output is expected to increase as many enterprises finish maintenance. The downstream demand is limited, and the procurement enthusiasm is average. The cost provides bottom - support. It is expected that PVC will stop falling and stabilize in September - October [2]. Urea Industry The urea futures are weakly declining. The supply may increase, and the demand from the autumn fertilizer market and industry is weak. The export new orders are limited. If there is no export surge or early shutdown of gas - based plants, the price may fall below 1,550 yuan/ton [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: The weekly supply - demand of pure benzene is weak. In September, the supply may remain at a high level, and the demand support is weak. The price driving force is weak. The strategy for BZ2603 is to follow the styrene fluctuations [13]. - **Styrene**: The weekly supply - demand of styrene is also weak. The strategy is to be bearish on the absolute price rebound of EB11, and expand the spread between EB11 and BZ11 at a low level, but the driving force is limited [13]. PX - PTA - MEG Industry - **PX**: The supply of PX may increase due to short - process capacity increase and postponed maintenance. The demand is affected by PTA maintenance. The price is under pressure, and the basis boost is limited [17]. - **PTA**: The processing fee of PTA is low, and new device production is postponed. The demand is in the peak season, but the basis and processing fee repair drive is insufficient. The absolute price follows the cost [17]. - **MEG**: The supply - demand of MEG is gradually weakening. In the short - term, the import is not high, and the basis is oscillating at a high level. In the long - term, it will enter the inventory accumulation period in the fourth quarter [17]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber supply is high, and the demand is limited during the peak season. The price has support at the low level, but the rebound drive is limited [17]. - **Bottle chips**: The bottle chip device restart and shutdown coexist. The downstream replenishment supports the price and processing fee, but the increase is limited [17]. Polyolefin Industry PP production has decreased due to losses in PDH and external propylene procurement routes, and the inventory has declined. PE maintenance has reached a peak, and the operating rate is rising. The upper - middle stream inventory has decreased. North American import offers are increasing. The inventory accumulation pressure of 01 contract is large, limiting the upside [22]. Methanol Industry The market is trading high inventory and fast Iranian loading. The coastal inventory has reached a historical high, the market sentiment is poor, and the price is weak. The domestic supply is at a high level year - on - year, and the demand is weak. The overall valuation is neutral. The market is swinging between high inventory and overseas gas - limit expectations. Attention should be paid to the inventory turning point [30][32]. Crude Oil Industry Last week, oil prices fluctuated weakly. The geopolitical premium has declined, and the market focuses on the weak supply - demand fundamentals. The supply is expected to be in surplus, and the demand is weak. The short - term oil prices are under pressure. Unilateral trading is recommended to wait and see, with SC resistance at 505 - 510, Brent at 68 - 69, and WTI at 64 - 65. Arbitrage is recommended to be long - spread, and options are recommended to buy put options [40]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On September 19, compared with the previous day, the prices of some products such as SH2509, SH2601, V2509, and V2601 increased, while the basis and spreads of some products changed [2]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The FOB price of caustic soda in East China ports increased, and the export profit increased significantly. The export profit of PVC decreased [2]. - **Supply**: The operating rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries decreased [2]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC increased [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of some products such as liquid caustic soda in Shandong and PVC total social inventory changed [2]. Urea Industry - **Supply**: The daily and weekly production of urea, and the operating rate of production plants are provided. The supply may increase [7]. - **Demand**: The demand from the autumn fertilizer market and industry is weak, and the export new orders are limited [7]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of urea in factories and ports is provided [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of crude oil, naphtha, ethylene, etc. decreased. The prices of pure benzene and styrene also decreased. The spreads and import profits changed [13]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased [13]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rates of some industries in the pure benzene - styrene chain changed [13]. PX - PTA - MEG Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of crude oil, naphtha, MX, etc. decreased. The prices of PX, PTA, and MEG also decreased. The spreads and basis changed [15][17]. - **Industry Operating Rates and Inventory**: No relevant content provided. Polyolefin Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 decreased. The basis and spreads changed [22]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP changed [22]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of PE and PP plants and downstream industries changed [22]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of MA2601 and MA2509 changed. The basis and regional spreads changed [30]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise and social inventories of methanol changed [30]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries of methanol changed [30]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil and Product Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC changed. The prices of refined oil products and their spreads also changed [38]. - **Market Analysis**: The oil prices are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalance and weakening geopolitical support [40].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views Chlor - Alkali Industry - Last week, the caustic soda futures stopped falling and rebounded on Friday. Next week, the supply is expected to increase, and the operating rate of sample manufacturers will rise. The alumina price has been falling, squeezing the profit of domestic alumina enterprises and weakening the support for the spot price. In Shandong, due to the approaching National Day holiday, there may be a price cut in the short - term. [2] - Last week, PVC futures rebounded with the support of a warming macro - environment, but the supply - demand contradiction is still difficult to resolve. Next week, the output is expected to increase as many enterprises finish maintenance. The downstream product operating rate has limited improvement, and the procurement enthusiasm is average. It is expected that PVC will stop falling and stabilize from September to October. [2] Urea Industry - The urea futures are in a weak downward trend. The supply is increasing rapidly, and it is expected to reach 210,000 tons in October. The demand is weak, with a short window for autumn fertilizer procurement, high finished - product inventory of compound fertilizers, and slow follow - up of export orders. Without variables such as increased exports or early shutdown of gas - based plants, the spot price may continue to decline, and the futures will continue to fall significantly only if the spot price breaks below 1,550 yuan/ton. [8] Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - The weekly supply - demand of pure benzene is weak. In September, the supply may remain high as some plants restart or postpone maintenance. The demand is weak as most downstream products are in the red, some secondary - downstream inventories are high, and styrene plants plan to reduce production in September - October. The price driving force is weak. [10] - The situation of styrene is similar to that of pure benzene. The supply - demand is expected to be loose in September, and the price driving force is weak. [10] Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, the supply has increased significantly due to delayed maintenance of some domestic plants, while the demand is weak as PTA processing fees are low, new PTA plants postpone commissioning, and many PTA plants plan to have maintenance. The PXN may be compressed in the fourth quarter, and the price driving force is weak. [14] - For PTA, the supply is expected to shrink, but the demand increase is limited, and the basis is not strongly supported. In the medium - term, the supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the price follows the raw material. [14] - For ethylene glycol, the short - term supply - demand is turning weak. Although the inventory is expected to decrease in September, the terminal market is weak. In the long - term, the supply - demand is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter due to new plant commissioning and seasonal demand decline. [14] - For short - fiber, the short - term supply - demand pattern is weak. The supply is high, and the demand is limited during the peak season. The price is supported at the low level but lacks upward driving force. [14] - For bottle - grade polyester chips, the supply - demand is still loose. Although the price and processing fees are supported by pre - holiday replenishment, the processing fee has limited upward space. [14][15] Polyolefin Industry - PP production has decreased recently due to losses in PDH and external - propylene procurement routes, leading to more unplanned maintenance and inventory decline. PE maintenance has reached a peak, and the operating rate is rising. The inventory of the upstream and mid - stream has decreased this week, and there are more import offers from North America. The 01 contract has a large inventory accumulation pressure, limiting the upward space. [20] Methanol Industry - The methanol market is trading high - inventory and fast loading in Iran. The coastal inventory has reached a record high, the market sentiment has worsened, and the price and basis have weakened slightly. The domestic supply is at a high level year - on - year, and although there is some unplanned maintenance recently, some plants are expected to resume production in mid - September, and the inventory pattern in the inland is relatively healthy. The demand is weak due to the traditional off - season. The port is still receiving a large amount of goods, with significant inventory accumulation and weak trading. The overall valuation is neutral. The futures are oscillating between high - inventory reality, weak basis, and overseas gas - restriction expectations in the future. [45] Crude Oil Industry - Last week, oil prices were weakly oscillating. The geopolitical premium has declined, and the market has refocused on the weak supply - demand fundamentals. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders has eased concerns about secondary sanctions on China for purchasing Russian oil, reducing the geopolitical risk support for oil prices. The expectation of future supply surplus, combined with the refinery maintenance season and the unexpected increase in US distillate inventory, has put pressure on oil prices. In the short - term, oil prices are under pressure. [49] Summary by Directory Chlor - Alkali Industry Spot and Futures Prices - On September 19, compared with September 18, the prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda and 50% liquid caustic soda remained unchanged. The price of East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC increased by 10 yuan/ton, with a 0.2% increase. [2] Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - From September 11 to September 18, the FOB price at East - China ports increased by 5 US dollars/ton, with a 1.3% increase, and the export profit increased by 217.6 yuan/ton, with a 3723.4% increase. The CFR price in Southeast Asia remained unchanged, and the CFR price in India decreased by 25 US dollars/ton, with a 3.3% decrease. [2] Supply - From September 12 to September 19, the operating rate of the caustic soda industry decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 85.4%, and the operating rate of PVC decreased by 4 percentage points to 75.4%. [2] Demand - From September 12 to September 19, the operating rate of the alumina industry increased by 0.9 percentage points to 83.7%, and the operating rate of the viscose staple fiber industry increased by 1.8 percentage points to 88.2%. [2] Inventory - From September 11 to September 18, the liquid caustic soda inventory in Shandong increased by 0.7 tons, with a 7.5% increase, and the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 0.4 tons, with a 1.2% decrease. [2] Urea Industry Futures Prices and Spreads - On September 17, compared with September 16, the 01 - contract price of urea decreased by 5 yuan/ton, with a 0.3% decrease, and the 05 - contract price decreased by 3 yuan/ton, with a 0.17% decrease. [5] Upstream Raw Materials - On September 17, compared with September 16, the price of动力煤 at the pithead in Yijinhuoluo Banner increased by 11 yuan/ton, with a 2.14% increase, and the price of动力煤 at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 6 yuan/ton, with a 0.87% increase. [5] Spot Market Prices - On September 17, compared with September 16, the price of small - particle urea in Guangdong increased by 10 yuan/ton, with a 0.56% increase, and the price of small - particle urea in Shanxi decreased by 10 yuan/ton, with a 0.65% decrease. [5] Supply - Demand - On September 19, compared with September 18, the domestic daily urea output decreased by 0.02 tons, with a 0.11% decrease. From September 12 to September 19, the domestic weekly urea inventory increased by 32,600 tons, with a 2.88% increase, and the order days of domestic urea production enterprises decreased by 0.7 days, with a 10.17% decrease. [8] Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Upstream Prices and Spreads - On September 19, compared with September 18, the price of Brent crude oil (November) decreased by 0.76 US dollars/barrel, with a 1.1% decrease, and the price of CFR China pure benzene decreased by 6 US dollars/ton, with a 0.8% decrease. [10] Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads - On September 19, compared with September 18, the price of styrene in East - China spot decreased by 100 yuan/ton, with a 1.4% decrease, and the EB10 - EB11 spread decreased by 8 yuan/ton, with a 66.7% decrease. [10] Downstream Cash Flows - On September 19, compared with September 18, the cash flow of phenol increased by 28 yuan/ton, with an 8.6% increase, and the cash flow of aniline increased by 93 yuan/ton, with a 29.8% increase. [10] Inventory - From September 8 to September 15, the pure benzene inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 10,000 tons, with a 6.9% decrease, and the styrene inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 17,500 tons, with a 9.9% decrease. [10] Operating Rate - From September 12 to September 19, the domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 1 percentage point to 78.4%, and the styrene operating rate decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 73.4%. [10] Polyester Industry Chain Upstream Prices - On September 19, compared with September 18, the price of Brent crude oil (November) decreased by 0.76 US dollars/barrel, with a 1.1% decrease, and the price of CFR China PX decreased by 11 US dollars/ton, with a 1.3% decrease. [14] Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows - On September 19, compared with September 18, the price of POY150/48 decreased by 65 yuan/ton, with a 0.9% decrease, and the price of FDY150/96 decreased by 45 yuan/ton, with a 0.7% decrease. [14] PX - Related Prices and Spreads - On September 19, compared with September 18, the PX - naphtha spread decreased by 4 US dollars/ton, with a 3.9% decrease, and the PX - MX spread increased by 2 US dollars/ton, with a 1.4% increase. [14] PTA - Related Prices and Spreads - On September 19, compared with September 18, the PTA East - China spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton, with a 1.6% increase, and the TA01 - TA05 spread decreased by 6 yuan/ton, with a 0.8% decrease. [14] MEG - Related Prices and Spreads - On September 19, compared with September 18, the MEG East - China spot price decreased by 11 yuan/ton, with a 0.3% decrease, and the MEG basis (01) decreased by 62 yuan/ton, with a 3.2% decrease. [14] Operating Rate - From September 12 to September 19, the PX operating rate decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 86.3%, and the PTA operating rate remained unchanged at 76.8%. [14] Polyolefin Industry Futures Prices and Spreads - On September 19, compared with September 18, the L2601 closing price decreased by 19 yuan/ton, with a 0.26% decrease, and the PP2509 - 2601 spread increased by 9 yuan/ton, with a 180% increase. [20] Spot Market Prices - On September 19, compared with September 18, the price of East - China PP raffia decreased by 30 yuan/ton, with a 0.44% decrease, and the price of North - China LLDPE film decreased by 20 yuan/ton, with a 0.28% decrease. [20] Inventory - As of Wednesday, compared with the previous value, the PE enterprise inventory increased by 23,800 tons, with a 5.57% increase, and the PP enterprise inventory increased by 43,400 tons, with an 8.06% increase. [20] Operating Rate - As of Thursday, compared with the previous value, the PE device operating rate increased by 2.32 percentage points to 80.4%, and the PP device operating rate decreased by 1.93 percentage points to 74.9%. [20] Methanol Industry Prices and Spreads - On September 19, compared with September 18, the MA2601 closing price increased by 15 yuan/ton, with a 0.64% increase, and the MA91 spread decreased by 28 yuan/ton, with a 215.38% decrease. [45] Inventory - As of Wednesday, compared with the previous value, the methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.21%, with a 0.61% decrease, and the methanol port inventory increased by 7,400 tons, with a 0.48% increase. [45] Operating Rate - As of Thursday, compared with the previous value, the upstream overseas enterprise operating rate decreased by 4.22 percentage points to 68%, and the downstream external - MTO device operating rate increased by 6.02 percentage points to 75.08%. [45] Crude Oil Industry Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - On September 22, compared with September 19, the Brent price increased by 0.17 US dollars/barrel, with a 0.25% increase, and the SC price decreased by 6.3 yuan/barrel, with a 1.27% decrease. [49] Refined Oil Prices and Spreads - On September 22, compared with September 19, the price of NYM RBOB increased by 0.56 cents/gallon, with a 0.28% increase, and the price of ICE Gasoil decreased by 0.75 US dollars/ton, with a 0.11% decrease. [49] Refined Oil Crack Spreads - On September 22, compared with September 19, the US gasoline crack spread decreased by 1 US dollars/barrel, with a 4.73% decrease, and the European gasoline crack spread decreased by 0.48 US dollars/barrel, with a 2.44% decrease. [49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current spot price of caustic soda is weakening within a certain range. The high - price caustic soda in Shandong faces downstream resistance, inventory is increasing, and the purchase price of major downstream buyers in Shandong is declining with cautious purchasing, but the futures market has already reflected this to some extent. - The supply output fluctuates normally due to maintenance. The cost remains stable, the price of liquid chlorine has increased, and the profit of chlor - alkali enterprises remains above 300 yuan/ton. - Non - aluminum downstream industries are generally stable, with non - aluminum rigid demand following up. - In the future, continue to pay attention to the spot price rhythm, the strength of the peak season, and the enthusiasm of downstream inventory replenishment. Currently, the overall supply - demand contradiction of caustic soda is limited, and periodic inventory replenishment and macro - expectations may affect the price rhythm [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - According to Steel Union data, the weekly output of caustic soda this week is 818,300 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons compared to last week, and the capacity utilization rate is 81.9% (a decrease of 1.5 percentage points). According to Baichuan data, the output of liquid caustic soda is 824,200 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons compared to last week, and the output of flake caustic soda is 104,600 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons compared to last week. There are more maintenance activities this week [3]. Inventory - According to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, the total inventory of liquid caustic soda factories nationwide is 243,000 tons (in terms of 100% purity), a 0.4% increase compared to last week. According to Longzhong data, the in - factory inventory of liquid caustic soda (samples of fixed liquid caustic soda with 200,000 tons and above) is 378,300 wet tons, a 6.02% increase compared to last week [3]. Profit - According to Longzhong data, the average weekly gross profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong is 328 yuan/ton, a 1.8% decrease compared to last week. This week, the theoretical production cost of caustic soda remains stable, the price of caustic soda weakens, the average weekly price of liquid chlorine increases, and the overall profit of chlor - alkali enterprises decreases slightly [3]. Demand - **Alumina**: Recently, the continuous decline in the prices of domestic and overseas alumina has continuously narrowed the profit margins of domestic alumina enterprises. Except for regular maintenance, insufficient supply of domestic ores, and the impact of heavy rain, there are no signs of large - scale production cuts among domestic enterprises. Coupled with the continuous import of overseas supplies in the later period, the support for spot prices from the supply side is weak in the short term [3]. - **Viscose staple fiber**: The market price of viscose staple fiber has remained stable this week [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - The current spot price of caustic soda is weakening within a range. The high - price liquid caustic soda in Shandong faces downstream resistance, inventory is increasing, and the purchase price of major downstream buyers in Shandong is declining with cautious purchasing, but the futures market has already reflected this to some extent. - The supply output fluctuates normally due to maintenance. The cost remains stable, the price of liquid chlorine has increased, and the profit of chlor - alkali enterprises remains above 300 yuan/ton. - Non - aluminum downstream industries are generally stable, with non - aluminum rigid demand following up. - In the future, continue to pay attention to the spot price rhythm, the strength of the peak season, and the enthusiasm of downstream inventory replenishment. Currently, the overall supply - demand contradiction of caustic soda is limited, and periodic inventory replenishment and macro - expectations may affect the price rhythm [5]. Caustic Soda Futures Market - **Futures prices**: On September 19, 2025, the prices of caustic soda 05, 09, and 01 contracts are 2,723 yuan/ton, 2,734 yuan/ton, and 2,641 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 2.06%, 1.64%, and 2.36% respectively [5]. - **Monthly spreads**: The monthly spreads of (5 - 9), (9 - 1), and (1 - 5) are - 11, 93, and - 82 respectively, with daily changes of 11, - 17, and 6 respectively [5]. - **Basis**: The basis of 05, 09, and 01 contracts (Shandong Jinling) are - 317, - 328, and - 235 respectively, with daily changes of - 55, - 44, and - 61 respectively [5]. Spot Prices - **32% caustic soda**: The prices of most brands in different regions remain unchanged on September 19, 2025, except for Shandong Lutai, which decreased by 2.2% [7]. - **50% caustic soda**: The prices of most brands remain unchanged, except for Shandong Lutai, which decreased by 1.5% [8]. - **Flake caustic soda**: The market prices in different regions remain unchanged on September 19, 2025 [8]. Price Spreads - Most of the caustic soda brand/regional price spreads remain unchanged on September 19, 2025, except for the 50% caustic soda (Guangdong - Shandong), which increased by 50 yuan/ton [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PVC market in the fourth quarter is expected to first rebound with the macro - situation and then return to fundamentals and delivery logic. For trading strategies, it includes unilateral interval operations, option strategies, and month - spread strategies [3][78]. - The caustic soda market in the fourth quarter is expected to have short - term price stimulation due to alumina stockpiling and then return to seasonal surplus. Trading strategies involve unilateral trading, arbitrage, and option strategies [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Market 1. Three - quarter Supply Review - The overall operation of existing PVC plants was stable in the first quarter, and seasonal maintenance in the second and third quarters affected supply. The average operation rate in the first three quarters was about 76.8%, and the output was about 17.948 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.35%. There were many new plant commissions from July to September [3][16]. 2. Three - quarter Demand Review - The apparent demand in the first three quarters was about 15.16 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.4%. Terminal demand was at a seasonal low, and speculative demand was average. Real estate data was weak, and cement demand and prices had been weak since 2024. Exports from January to July were relatively strong, with PVC powder exports of 2.291 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 830,000 tons (56.9%), while floor exports decreased by 11.15% year - on - year [20][32][34]. 3. Three - quarter Inventory Review - In the third quarter, inventory shifted from upstream to mid - stream, and both started to accumulate recently. Due to weak demand and the futures price being higher than the spot price, there was a lot of selling hedging by upstream and futures - cash traders, and inventory shifted to the delivery warehouse. As of September 17, the warehouse receipt volume was 110,900, the highest in history [42][46]. 4. Fourth - quarter Supply Outlook - There will be some maintenance in October, and then maintenance will decrease. There is a possibility of capacity exit in existing plants. Newly commissioned plants have been postponed but will be concentrated recently, and the supply pressure will be reflected in the fourth quarter [52][53][57]. 5. Fourth - quarter Demand Outlook - It is difficult for domestic demand to have incremental demand in the fourth quarter. In terms of exports, attention should be paid to the impact of India's anti - dumping on China. India has strong demand, but the anti - dumping tax rate has been adjusted to $122 - 232 per ton [3][71]. 6. Fourth - quarter Trading Strategies - Strategy 1: Unilateral interval operations. PVC is still in an oversupply situation, but low valuation and falling caustic soda prices provide support. It is expected to trade on macro - improvement factors from September to October and then return to fundamentals. - Strategy 2: Option strategies. Sell out - of - the - money put options on V2601 at relatively low prices and sell out - of - the - money call options on V2601 after the price rebounds. - Strategy 3: Month - spread strategies. Go for positive spreads between January and May contracts and look for positive spread opportunities between May and September contracts [78]. Caustic Soda Market 1. Caustic Soda Spot and Futures Market Review - The spot price of caustic soda has fluctuated due to factors such as maintenance, downstream replenishment, and changes in liquid chlorine prices. The futures market has also shown significant fluctuations, affected by factors like inventory accumulation, market sentiment, and alumina stockpiling [81][83]. 2. Caustic Soda Supply and Demand Review - The output in the first three quarters was about 31.703 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.42%. There were new plant commissions in the third quarter, and some capacity exited. Non - aluminum demand improved in Q3, and paper - making operations were divided. Exports from January to July 2025 were 2.398 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 51.3% [85][95]. 3. Caustic Soda Supply and Demand Outlook - There is a total of 1.05 million tons of capacity to be commissioned, mainly from September to October. The commissioning compliance rate is 50 - 60%. It is expected that the operation rate will recover in late September, decline in October, and remain relatively high from November to December. There is still new demand for alumina commissioning and stockpiling in the fourth quarter, but attention should be paid to the impact of alumina over - supply on demand [98][100][103]. 4. Caustic Soda Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: The near - term is weak, and it is advisable to buy low - priced contracts for the peak season. - Arbitrage: Conduct reverse spreads from non - stockpiling months to stockpiling months, positive spreads from stockpiling months to off - peak months, long caustic soda and short alumina during alumina commissioning and stockpiling, and short caustic soda and long alumina when alumina is in over - supply and production is cut [138].

Group 1: Company Performance and Strategy - The company focuses on its core business and implements a "sales-driven production, efficiency-driven sales" strategy to enhance operational performance [2] - Continuous investment in R&D is emphasized to achieve breakthroughs in key technologies and product upgrades [2] - The company aims to optimize market layout, deepen existing markets, and actively explore emerging fields to increase customer loyalty and market share [2] Group 2: Market Conditions - The domestic PVC market shows strong bottom support, with rising prices for coal tar and calcium carbide, while demand is improving due to seasonal factors [3] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to persist, and if the old capacity elimination policy in the petrochemical industry is implemented, it may lead to a supply contraction in PVC, positively impacting prices [3] - In the viscose market, cautious procurement by downstream enterprises has led to a decline in prices, but a slight improvement in demand is expected to stabilize prices in the coming months [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyester Industry - PX: In the fourth quarter, PX supply - demand is expected to weaken, and PXN may be compressed. The absolute price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. PX11 can be treated as fluctuating between 6600 - 6900 [2]. - PTA: New device commissioning is postponed, and some device maintenance plans are announced, which boosts PTA in the short - term. In the medium - term, the supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the absolute price follows raw materials. TA can be treated as fluctuating between 4600 - 4800, and TA1 - 5 can be rolled in reverse arbitrage [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: The supply pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. In September, it is expected to be good, but in the fourth quarter, it will enter the inventory accumulation period. EG can be observed unilaterally, and EG1 - 5 can be in reverse arbitrage [2]. - Short Fiber: The short - term supply - demand is weak. The short - fiber price has support at low levels but weak rebound drive, and the rhythm follows raw materials [2]. - Bottle Chip: In September, supply increases slightly, demand may decline, and inventory is expected to increase slowly. PR follows the cost side, and the processing fee has limited upside space [2]. Urea Industry The urea futures are running weakly due to increasing supply and lack of demand growth. The short - term futures are expected to run weakly [6]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic Soda: After a rebound, it retraces. The supply may decline due to maintenance, and the demand support is limited. The spot price may stabilize, and the decline space of the futures price is limited [12]. - PVC: After a rebound, it retraces. The supply is expected to decrease due to maintenance, and the demand shows a marginal improvement. The cost provides bottom support. It can be short - sold at high prices [12]. Methanol Industry The mainland supply is at a high level, and the inventory pattern is relatively healthy, which supports the price. The demand is weak, and the port inventory is accumulating. The overall valuation is neutral. The market sways between high inventory and overseas gas - restriction expectations, and the inventory inflection point should be followed [22]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Supply may be higher than expected, and demand is weak. The short - term price is affected by geopolitical and macro factors. BZ2603 follows styrene to fluctuate [26]. - Styrene: Supply is relatively sufficient, and demand support is average. The port inventory is falling but still high. EB10 can be bought at low levels, and the spread between EB11 and BZ11 can be widened at low levels [26]. Crude Oil Industry The overnight oil price fluctuates in a range. The tight refined oil market supports the price, but the macro - economic slowdown restricts the upside. The oil price may fluctuate in a range in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally, and look for opportunities to widen the spread on the option side [28]. Polyolefin Industry For PP, the profit is suppressed, there are many unplanned maintenance, and the inventory decreases. For PE, the maintenance is high, the basis rises, and the inventory is reduced. The demand has few new orders, and the market shows "supply decrease and demand increase" [33]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (November) decreased by 0.8%, WTI crude oil (October) decreased by 0.7%, CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 1.6%, etc. [2]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price decreased by 0.4%, FDY150/96 price remained unchanged, etc. [2]. - **PX - related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX decreased, PX spot price (RMB) decreased, and PX basis (11) decreased by 39.0% [2]. - **PTA - related Prices and Spreads**: PTA East China spot price increased by 0.2%, TA futures 2601 decreased by 1.0% [2]. - **MEG - related Prices and Spreads**: MEG East China spot price decreased by 0.3%, EG futures 2601 decreased by 0.7% [2]. - **Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rates**: Asian PX operating rate increased by 2.5%, China PX operating rate increased by 4.9%, etc. [2]. Urea Industry - **Fertilizer Market**: The prices of some fertilizers such as ammonium sulfate and sulfur decreased slightly, while others remained unchanged [6]. - **Supply - demand Overview**: Domestic urea daily output increased by 1.82%, coal - based urea daily output increased by 1.97%, etc. [6]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% price decreased by 2.4%, East China calcium carbide - based PVC market price decreased by 0.4% [12]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: FOB East China port caustic soda increased by 1.3%, and the export profit increased by 120.2% [12]. - **Supply (Chlor - alkali Operating Rate and Industry Profit)**: PVC overall operating rate increased by 4.2%, and the profit of externally purchased calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 12.8% [12]. - **Demand**: Alumina industry operating rate increased by 1.5%, and Longzhong sample pipe operating rate increased by 12.3% [12]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda Shandong inventory increased by 17.0%, and PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 1.8% [12]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 closing price decreased by 1.26%, and the spread between MA9 and MA1 changed by - 360.00% [22]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.61%, and methanol port inventory increased by 0.48% [22]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Domestic upstream enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.12%, and downstream externally - purchased MTO device operating rate increased by 8.72% [22]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: CFR China pure benzene decreased by 0.5%, and pure benzene - naphtha spread increased by 4.5% [26]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene East China spot price decreased by 1.1%, and EB futures 2510 decreased by 1.1% [26]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 6.9%, and styrene Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 9.9% [26]. - **Industrial Chain Operating Rates**: Asian pure benzene operating rate increased by 1.4%, and domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 0.1% [26]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: Brent decreased by 0.75%, WTI decreased by 0.05%, and the spread between Brent M1 and M3 increased by 4.55% [28]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.13%, NYM ULSD increased by 0.02%, and ICE Gasoil decreased by 0.39% [28]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: US gasoline crack spread decreased by 0.51%, European gasoline crack spread decreased by 2.44% [28]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: L2601 closing price decreased by 0.79%, PP2601 closing price decreased by 0.80% [33]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 5.57%, PP enterprise inventory increased by 8.06% [33]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate increased by 2.97%, PP device operating rate decreased by 2.5% [33].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is fluctuating with the macro - environment. Supply is still abundant due to new production, demand shows some improvement but export expectations in Q4 are weak, inventory is high, and there is room to compress profits. The futures price is under pressure, and attention should be paid to anti - involution policies [3] - The spot price of caustic soda is falling. Chlor - alkali enterprise operating rates are slightly down. Demand support is loosening, and inventory is accumulating. Cost support still exists, and the profit is at a medium level compared to the same period [3] Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures and basis**: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4923 yuan/ton (- 50), the East China basis is - 173 yuan/ton (+ 20), and the South China basis is - 103 yuan/ton (+ 20) [1] - **Spot price**: East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4750 yuan/ton (- 30), and South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4820 yuan/ton (- 30) [1] - **Upstream production profit**: The semi - coke price is 640 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide price is 2840 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide profit is 38 yuan/ton (+ 0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 502 yuan/ton (- 81), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 672 yuan/ton (- 1), and the PVC export profit is - 8.0 dollars/ton (+ 4.1) [1] - **Inventory and operating rate**: PVC factory inventory is 31.0 tons (- 0.6), PVC social inventory is 53.2 tons (- 0.1), the PVC calcium carbide - based operating rate is 76.91% (- 3.38%), the PVC ethylene - based operating rate is 72.00% (- 5.20%), and the overall PVC operating rate is 75.43% (- 3.96%) [1] - **Downstream orders**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 68.9 tons (+ 1.8) [1] Caustic Soda - **Futures and basis**: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2580 yuan/ton (- 28), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 80 yuan/ton (- 35) [1] - **Spot price**: 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is quoted at 800 yuan/ton (- 20), and 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is quoted at 1270 yuan/ton (- 30) [2] - **Upstream production profit**: The profit of a single caustic soda variety in Shandong is 1509 yuan/ton (- 63), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 685.8 yuan/ton (- 22.5), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 259.78 yuan/ton (- 72.50), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1437.25 yuan/ton (+ 0.00) [2] - **Inventory and operating rate**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 37.83 tons (+ 2.15), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.18 tons (- 0.03), and the caustic soda operating rate is 81.90% (- 1.50%) [2] - **Downstream operating rate**: The operating rate of alumina is 85.21% (+ 0.83%), the operating rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 65.76% (+ 0.00%), and the operating rate of viscose staple fiber is 89.52% (+ 1.75%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply: Some enterprises are under maintenance, but new production capacity is increasing, and supply remains abundant [3] - Demand: Downstream product operating rates are rising, and enterprises maintain rigid demand procurement. Export orders are increasing, but Q4 export expectations are weak due to Indian policies [3] - Inventory: Social inventory continues to accumulate, and the absolute inventory value is high [3] - Price: The futures price is under pressure from high - level hedging, and attention should be paid to the impact of anti - involution policies [3] Caustic Soda - Supply: The operating rate of chlor - alkali enterprises is slightly down, and production may decrease slightly. New production capacity in Tianjin Bohua has reached full production [3] - Demand: Alumina orders in Shandong are stable, but external orders have decreased. High - price sales are difficult, and there is a fear of high prices in non - aluminum sectors. The inventory in Shandong is accumulating, and the market price is falling [3] - Price: The spot price is falling, and cost support still exists. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm before the holidays and the production start - up rhythm of Guangxi alumina [3] Strategy PVC - **Single - side trading**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [4] - **Inter - delivery spread trading**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [4] - **Inter - commodity trading**: No strategy provided [4] Caustic Soda - **Single - side trading**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [5] - **Inter - delivery spread trading**: Consider a long - short spread strategy for SH01 - 05 when the spread is low [5] - **Inter - commodity trading**: No strategy provided [5]