1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market's medium - to long - term outlook is bullish due to the international geopolitical conflicts boosting the sentiment of bulk commodities, the rush for export shipments supporting the spot market, and the mercury - free transformation raising the long - term cost expectations. However, the short - term supply - demand remains weak due to post - holiday inventory accumulation and incomplete downstream resumption. The market sentiment is expected to improve with downstream resumption, spring maintenance expectations, and the strengthened macro - expectations from the Two Sessions. But the support from exports will gradually weaken as the export window closes [3]. - The price of caustic soda is mainly stable, with low - price warehouse receipts suppressing market sentiment. The supply side has a slightly increased operating rate and high inventory due to logistics and downstream factors during the festival. The demand side has a general receiving sentiment, with some alumina plant maintenance and a delayed alumina project in Guangxi. The main contract has a large premium, and the macro - expectations are improving with the Two Sessions. Attention should be paid to relevant policy dynamics, alumina operating dynamics, liquid chlorine price fluctuations, and downstream procurement rhythms [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,939 yuan/ton (+71), the East China basis is - 259 yuan/ton (-31), and the South China basis is - 129 yuan/ton (-41) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,680 yuan/ton (+40), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,810 yuan/ton (+30) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 685 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,755 yuan/ton (-25), the calcium carbide profit is - 83 yuan/ton (-25), the calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit is - 439 yuan/ton (+157), the ethylene - based PVC production gross profit is 11 yuan/ton (-102), and the PVC export profit is 23.3 US dollars/ton (-3.9) [1]. - PVC inventory and operating rate: The in - plant PVC inventory is 50.4 tons (-0.1), the social PVC inventory is 61.6 tons (+0.1), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate is 81.77% (+0.59%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate is 80.40% (+1.53%), and the overall PVC operating rate is 81.35% (+0.87%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 78.0 tons (-2.3) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,149 yuan/ton (+67), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 168 yuan/ton (-73) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 634 yuan/ton (-2), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,020 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 973 yuan/ton (-6), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 338.0 yuan/ton (-6.3), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 128.96 yuan/ton (+68.75), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 736.79 yuan/ton (+20.00) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and operating rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 54.09 tons (+9.80), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 4.40 tons (+0.46), and the caustic soda operating rate is 84.90% (-0.70%) [2]. - Caustic soda downstream operating rate: The alumina operating rate is 82.81% (-0.37%), the printing and dyeing operating rate in East China is 24.34% (+24.34%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate is 88.43% (+0.00%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The export tax rebate for PVC will be cancelled from April 1st. Upstream export orders were signed before the festival until March. India has launched an anti - subsidy tax investigation, reducing the long - term export expectations. The current supply - demand pattern remains weak. The supply is abundant with no new maintenance enterprises, but the spring maintenance expectations in April are increasing. The downstream operating rate has not returned to the pre - festival level, and the social inventory has increased after the festival and is at a high level year - on - year. The PVC warehouse receipts are at a high level, and the cancellation of warehouse receipts in March will increase the spot pressure. However, the international geopolitical conflicts have boosted the sentiment of bulk commodities, and the rush for export shipments has supported the spot market. The mercury - free transformation has raised the long - term cost expectations [3]. Caustic Soda - The price of caustic soda is mainly stable, and low - price warehouse receipts suppress the market sentiment. The operating rate of some liquid chlorine downstream has recovered, and the cost support has weakened. The supply - side operating rate has increased slightly and is at a high level year - on - year. The inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu has increased during the festival due to logistics and downstream factors. The demand - side receiving sentiment is general, with some alumina plant maintenance and a delayed alumina project in Guangxi. The main contract has a large premium, and the macro - expectations are improving with the Two Sessions [3]. Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Oscillating and bullish - Inter - period: Go long on the V05 - 09 spread when it is low - Inter - variety: None [4] Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Oscillating - Inter - period: Wait - and - see - Inter - variety: None [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term SH2605 is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 2180 technically. The industry's capacity utilization rate is expected to rise to a high level, the demand for caustic soda may increase, but the inventory removal is still difficult and the pressure is high. The rising price of liquid chlorine may weaken the cost support of caustic soda [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda is 2149 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 67; the caustic soda main contract position is 177,262 hands, with a decrease of 26,987; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 15,670 hands, with an increase of 14,112; the trading volume of the caustic soda main contract is 550,462 hands, with an increase of 131,217. The closing price of the January contract is 2401 yuan/ton, with an increase of 48, and the closing price of the May contract is 2149 yuan/ton, with an increase of 67 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 636 yuan/ton, with no change; in Jiangsu, it is 740 yuan/ton, with an increase of 10. The converted 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 1987.5 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of caustic soda is - 94 yuan/ton, with an increase of 50 [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 227.5 yuan/ton, with no change; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, with no change. The price of steam coal is 645 yuan/ton, with an increase of 3 [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 50.5 yuan/ton, with an increase of 100; in Jiangsu, it is 100 yuan/ton, with an increase of 100 [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 12,840 yuan/ton, with no change, and the spot price of alumina is 2590 yuan/ton, with an increase of 10 [3] 3.6 Industry News - From February 20th to 26th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons and above was 84.9%, a ring - to - ring increase of 0.5%. From February 21st to 27th, the alumina start - up rate decreased by 0.37% to 82.81% compared with the previous period; from February 20th to 26th, the viscose staple fiber start - up rate remained stable at 88.43%, and the printing and dyeing start - up rate increased by 24.34% to 24.34%. As of February 26th, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 540,900 tons (wet tons), a ring - to - ring increase of 22.13% and a year - on - year increase of 15.28%. From February 20th to 26th, the profit of Shandong chlor - alkali was - 283 yuan/ton [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental supply - demand pattern of PVC remains weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are strong. The short - term supply - demand remains weak, and market sentiment is expected to improve later. For caustic soda, the spot price has a slight increase, and attention should be paid to the alumina start - up dynamics, liquid chlorine price fluctuations, and downstream procurement rhythm [3] 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4868 yuan/ton (+76); the East China basis is - 228 yuan/ton (-46); the South China basis is - 88 yuan/ton (+4) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4640 yuan/ton (+30); the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4780 yuan/ton (+40) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 685 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide price is 2780 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide profit is - 58 yuan/ton (+0); the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 439 yuan/ton (+157); the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is 11 yuan/ton (-102); the PVC export profit is 27.2 US dollars/ton (+10.6) [1] - PVC inventory and start - up: The in - factory PVC inventory is 50.4 tons (-0.1); the social PVC inventory is 61.6 tons (+0.1); the start - up rate of PVC calcium carbide - based production is 81.77% (+0.59%); the start - up rate of PVC ethylene - based production is 80.40% (+1.53%); the overall PVC start - up rate is 81.35% (+0.87%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 78.0 tons (-2.3) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2082 yuan/ton (-43); the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 95 yuan/ton (+49) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 636 yuan/ton (+0); the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1020 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 979 yuan/ton (+0); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 344.3 yuan/ton (+79.2); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 197.71 yuan/ton (+50.00); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 716.79 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and start - up: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 54.09 tons (+9.80); the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 4.40 tons (+0.46); the caustic soda start - up rate is 84.90% (-0.70%) [2] - Caustic soda downstream start - up: The alumina start - up rate is 82.81% (-0.37%); the start - up rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 24.34% (+24.34%); the start - up rate of viscose staple fiber is 88.43% (+0.00%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - From April 1st, the export tax rebate for PVC is cancelled. The upstream export orders were signed until March before the festival, and the export orders this week increased slightly compared with before the festival. India launched an anti - subsidy tax investigation, and the long - term export expectation decreased. The current supply is abundant, and there are no new maintenance enterprises, but the expectation of spring maintenance in April increases. The downstream start - up has not returned to the pre - festival level, the social inventory has increased after the festival and is at a high level year - on - year, and the PVC warehouse receipts are at a high level in the same period, with increased spot pressure after the cancellation of warehouse receipts in March. Although the supply - demand is weak, the international geopolitical conflict over the weekend has strengthened the sentiment of the overall commodity market, and the rush to export has supported the spot. The mercury - free transformation has increased the market's expectation of the long - term cost of PVC. The short - term supply - demand remains weak, but the market sentiment is expected to improve later [3] Caustic Soda - Some traders and downstream enterprises have replenished their stocks for rigid demand, and the spot price of caustic soda has increased slightly. The start - up of some liquid chlorine downstream industries has recovered, the liquid chlorine price has increased, and the cost support has weakened. The supply - side start - up rate has increased slightly and is at a high level year - on - year. During the festival, due to logistics restrictions and reduced downstream start - up, the caustic soda inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu has increased. The demand - side receiving sentiment is average, some alumina plants are under maintenance, the start - up has decreased slightly, and the long - term demand expectation for caustic soda has decreased. The non - aluminum start - up decreased before the festival, the procurement behavior during the Spring Festival weakened, and the start - up and rigid - demand procurement increased after the festival. The low - price warehouse receipts have suppressed the market sentiment, and the main contract has a large premium. Attention should be paid to the alumina start - up dynamics, liquid chlorine price fluctuations, and downstream procurement rhythm [3] Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Oscillate strongly - Inter - period: Go long on the V05 - 09 spread when it is low - Inter - variety: None [4] Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Oscillate in the short term, pay attention to downstream procurement sentiment - Inter - period: Wait and see - Inter - variety: None [5]

Group 1 - The PVC market is expected to continue its downward trend through 2025, with the chlor-alkali industry benefiting from a cost advantage due to the alkali supplementing chlorine strategy [1] - The concentration of the PVC industry is steadily increasing, with the annual capacity concentration (CR10) projected to rise from 35.59% in 2021 to 40.17% in 2025 [1] - The chlor-alkali industry's capacity growth is slowing down, leading to clearer industry layouts and larger average scales for individual enterprises [1] Group 2 - The domestic PVC market has been in a prolonged downturn since the second half of 2022, with many production companies reporting losses in 2023 and an increase in loss-making companies expected in 2024 [1] - Over 1.3 million tons of PVC production capacity has been idled for more than a year [1] - The national "dual carbon" policies are guiding the industry, with a focus on energy transition and industrial upgrading as part of the strategy to achieve carbon peak goals [1] Group 3 - The calcium carbide method currently dominates the PVC industry in China, and the transition to mercury-free production is expected to accelerate [2] - The Minamata Convention on Mercury has expanded its control over mercury-containing products and processes, with the elimination timeline for mercury processes in PVC production becoming a focal point in recent negotiations [2] - China has successfully met the target of halving mercury use per unit of PVC product by 2020 compared to 2010, and further efforts will focus on developing mercury-free catalysts and enhancing policy support [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the PVC industry [1] Core Insights - The PVC industry's long-term outlook is positive, driven by national "dual carbon" policies and the accelerated transition to mercury-free production [2] - The PVC market is expected to continue its downward trend in 2025, with the chlor-alkali industry benefiting from cost advantages among leading companies [3] - Key companies recommended for investment include Zhongtai Chemical, Xinjiang Tianye, Junzheng Group, Beiyuan Group, Huashu Co., Tianyuan Co., and Jiahua Energy, with a focus on mercury-free catalyst research and development [3] - The concentration of the PVC industry is on the rise, with the annual capacity concentration (CR10) projected to increase from 35.59% in 2021 to 40.17% in 2025 [3] - The domestic PVC market has been sluggish since the second half of 2022, with increasing losses among production companies in 2024 [3] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The PVC industry is undergoing a significant transformation towards mercury-free production, with the government emphasizing green transition and energy security [3] - The dominant production method in the PVC industry is currently the calcium carbide method, which is expected to transition to mercury-free processes [3] Key Companies and Valuation - Key company valuations indicate that Kaili New Materials is rated "Accumulate" with an expected EPS of 0.71 yuan for 2024, increasing to 1.82 yuan by 2026 [4] - Other companies listed include Zhongtai Chemical, Xinjiang Tianye, and Junzheng Group, with varying EPS forecasts and PE ratios [4]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the petrochemical and chemical industry under the dual carbon policy, with a focus on companies with integrated advantages such as Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical, Dongfang Shenghong, and satellite chemical [9][38]. Core Insights - The dual carbon control policy is set to replace energy consumption control as the primary assessment criterion starting in 2026, emphasizing carbon emissions directly rather than total energy consumption [7][27]. - The petrochemical and chemical industry exhibits significant differentiation in carbon emission intensity across various sub-industries and production processes, with a gradient structure from upstream oil and gas to coal chemical [4][31]. - Short-term impacts of carbon costs are expected to be limited, but new policies will restrict new capacity, leading to a revaluation of existing quality assets [9][31]. - In the medium to long term, carbon revenues are anticipated to enhance profits, particularly for low-carbon intensity assets within high-carbon industries [9][31]. Summary by Sections Policy Transition - The transition from energy consumption control to carbon emission control marks a significant shift in policy, with the chemical industry contributing 12%-14% of national carbon emissions [7][27]. - The new dual carbon control system will focus on intensity control primarily, with total control as a secondary measure, impacting the development paths of chemical enterprises [16][27]. Industry Impact - The petrochemical and chemical sectors are characterized by numerous sub-industries, each with varying carbon emission profiles. The refining, coal chemical, and chlor-alkali sectors are expected to be most affected by the dual carbon controls [29][31]. - Different production processes lead to significant variations in carbon emission intensity, with coal chemical processes generally exhibiting the highest emissions [31][34]. Company Analysis - Among major companies, CNOOC stands out for its low carbon emission intensity, while other state-owned enterprises like Sinopec and PetroChina have higher total emissions but lower intensity compared to private refiners [38][43]. - The report highlights the carbon emission intensity rankings among major private refiners, indicating a clear hierarchy based on operational efficiency and energy structure [38][43]. Investment Recommendations - In the short term, the report recommends focusing on leading companies with integrated advantages, while in the medium to long term, it suggests monitoring low-carbon intensity assets in high-carbon industries for potential profit growth [9][31].

研究报告 – 烧碱报告 2026 年 2 月 金融研究院 研究报告-烧碱月报 报告日期 2026 年 2 月 27 日 范阿骄 : F3054801 投资咨询证号： Z0016954 节后需求边际改善， 烧碱市场企稳向好 从业资格号 2026 年 2 月，烧碱市场结束 1 月单边下行态势， 进入供需博弈下低位企稳、基差修复 的震荡阶段。 核心逻辑从高供应 + 高库存 + 弱需求的三重压力， 转向 库存去化与节后需求复苏的博弈。 供给端，行业产能利用率维持高位，但边际压力较 1 月缓解，部分企业响应库存压力小幅降负，产量呈现 小幅波动回落特征，以氯补碱 模式仍支撑企业维持 较高生产负荷。需求端，氧化铝行业高开工提供核心 需求底盘，非铝下游随节后复工呈现季节性复苏，华 东印染厂开机率逐步回升，整体需求边际改善。 3 月市场有望延续震荡回升态势，核心看点在于需求 复苏强度与库存去化节奏。策略上建议以逢低做多为 主，关注基差修复机会，同时警惕下游开工不及预 期、新增产能集中投放等潜在风险。 一、市场回顾：供需博弈下低位企稳，基差修复信号初现 2026 年 2 月烧碱市场延续 1 月弱势格局，但在成本支撑与边际需求改善 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The current overall supply - demand pattern of PVC remains weak, but the "rush to export" sentiment provides some support to the spot. The market sentiment is expected to improve with the recovery of downstream construction, the increasing expectation of spring maintenance, and the strengthening of macro - expectations. For caustic soda, the spot price has risen slightly due to replenishment by some traders and downstream industries. The market procurement sentiment is expected to improve after the festival as downstream industries resume work and release replenishment demand [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4963 yuan/ton (+15), the East China basis is - 233 yuan/ton (-15), and the South China basis is - 103 yuan/ton (+15) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4730 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4860 yuan/ton (+30) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 685 yuan/ton (-50), the calcium carbide price is 2780 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 58 yuan/ton (+40), the production gross profit of PVC by calcium carbide method is - 596 yuan/ton (+102), the production gross profit of PVC by ethylene method is 113 yuan/ton (-16), and the PVC export profit is 16.3 US dollars/ton (+0.0) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: The in - factory inventory of PVC is 50.5 tons (+19.3), the social inventory of PVC is 61.5 tons (+0.1), the operation rate of PVC by calcium carbide method is 81.18% (+0.40%), the operation rate of PVC by ethylene method is 78.87% (+5.18%), and the overall operation rate of PVC is 80.48% (+1.86%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 80.3 tons (-21.0) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2167 yuan/ton (+197), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 201 yuan/ton (-163) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 629 yuan/ton (+11), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1010 yuan/ton (+10) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 949 yuan/ton (+34), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 147.9 yuan/ton (+34.4), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 204.08 yuan/ton (+34.38), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 796.29 yuan/ton (+56.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 44.29 tons (+0.00), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 3.94 tons (+1.16), and the operation rate of caustic soda is 85.60% (-2.00%) [2] - Downstream operation of caustic soda: The operation rate of alumina is 83.18% (-0.28%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 0.00% (+0.00%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 88.43% (+0.15%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - The export tax rebate for PVC was cancelled on April 1st, leading to strong export orders due to the "rush to export". The upstream inventory pressure is not large. The overall supply - demand pattern remains weak. The supply is abundant, and the expectation of spring maintenance in April is increasing. The downstream operation decreased significantly during the Spring Festival and will gradually recover. The social inventory has increased after the festival and is at a high level year - on - year. The production profit of upstream chlor - alkali has been slightly repaired, but it is still at a low level year - on - year. The PVC warehouse receipts are at a high level, and there is still pressure for hedging on the futures market. Although the supply - demand is weak, the "rush to export" sentiment supports the spot, and the market expectation is strong. However, the inventory accumulated during the Spring Festival and the incomplete recovery of downstream operation will keep the short - term supply - demand weak. The market sentiment is expected to improve with the recovery of downstream operation, the increasing expectation of spring maintenance, and the strengthening of macro - expectations [3] Caustic Soda - Some traders and downstream industries replenished their stocks, leading to a slight increase in the spot price of caustic soda. The cost support has weakened compared with before the festival. The supply has decreased slightly as some enterprises in Shandong reduced their production. The inventory of caustic soda in Shandong and Jiangsu has increased during the festival. The demand is average, and the market's motivation to purchase caustic soda is insufficient. There is some purchase demand after the festival. The export orders improved slightly before the festival. The warehouse receipts of caustic soda suppress the futures market, but the market procurement sentiment is expected to improve after the festival [3] Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Short - term oscillation - Inter - delivery: Go long on the spread between V05 and V09 when it is low - Inter - commodity: None [4] Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Short - term oscillation, pay attention to downstream procurement sentiment - Inter - delivery: Go long on the spread between SH04 and SH05 when it is low - Inter - commodity: None [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of caustic soda has changed to the 05 contract SH2605, which showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, closing at 2,167 yuan/ton. Some chlor-alkali enterprises reduced their production loads during the Spring Festival due to low profits, leading to a decrease in caustic soda capacity utilization compared to before the festival. The downstream alumina开工率 maintained a slight downward trend due to maintenance in some enterprises. After the Spring Festival, chlor-alkali enterprises increased the price of liquid chlorine, and the prices of liquid chlorine in Shandong and Jiangsu rebounded, weakening the cost support for caustic soda. Some enterprises in Shandong raised their caustic soda quotes, and the market price increased compared to before the festival. Currently, there are still few plans for chlor-alkali plant maintenance. In the medium to long term, the continuous rebound of caustic soda spot prices requires future production cuts by enterprises. SH2605 is expected to show a volatile trend in the short term, with a daily range estimated to be around 2,130 - 2,230 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of caustic soda was 2,167 yuan/ton, a increase of 197 yuan; the position of the main contract was 140,547 lots, an increase of 88,864 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was -20,345 lots, a decrease of 3,312 lots; the trading volume of the main contract was 242,102 lots, an increase of 85,242 lots. The closing prices of the January and May contracts were 2,378 yuan/ton and 2,167 yuan/ton, with an increase of 6 yuan and 14 yuan respectively [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong and Jiangsu regions was 629 yuan/ton and 720 yuan/ton respectively, with an increase of 11 yuan and no change. The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong region was 1,966 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan. The basis was -201 yuan/ton, a decrease of 162 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream prices of raw salt in Shandong and Northwest regions were 237.5 yuan/ton and 220 yuan/ton respectively, with no change. The price of steam coal was 645 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream prices of liquid chlorine in Shandong and Jiangsu regions were -100 yuan/ton and 75.5 yuan/ton respectively, with no change and an increase of 125.5 yuan. On February 25th, the ex-factory price of liquid chlorine of Shandong Xinfa was -50 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day. On February 25th, the theoretical production profit of Shandong chlor-alkali was -217 yuan/ton [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot prices of viscose staple fiber and alumina were 12,800 yuan/ton and 2,555 yuan/ton respectively, with no change. From February 14th to 20th, the capacity utilization rate of domestic caustic soda was 85.6%, a decrease of 2% compared to the previous week; the alumina开工率 was 83.18%, a decrease of 0.28% compared to the previous week [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market remains weak, but the "rush to export" sentiment provides some support to the spot. With the recovery of downstream operations, the expected increase in spring maintenance, and the strengthening of macro - expectations, the market is expected to gradually improve [3]. - After the Spring Festival, some traders and downstream users replenished their stocks, leading to a slight increase in the spot price of caustic soda. Although the cost support has weakened, the market procurement sentiment is expected to improve as downstream operations resume and restocking demand is released [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,948 yuan/ton (+43), the East China basis was - 218 yuan/ton (-43), and the South China basis was - 118 yuan/ton (-53) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,730 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,830 yuan/ton (-10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 735 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,780 yuan/ton (-165), the calcium carbide profit was - 98 yuan/ton (-165), the production gross profit of PVC by calcium carbide method was - 596 yuan/ton (+102), the production gross profit of PVC by ethylene method was 113 yuan/ton (-16), and the PVC export profit was 16.3 US dollars/ton (-0.4) [1]. - PVC inventory and operation rate: The in - factory PVC inventory was 50.5 tons (+19.3), the social PVC inventory was 61.5 tons (+0.1), the operation rate of PVC by calcium carbide method was 81.18% (+0.40%), the operation rate of PVC by ethylene method was 78.87% (+5.18%), and the overall PVC operation rate was 80.48% (+1.86%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 80.3 tons (-21.0) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 1,970 yuan/ton (-45), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was - 39 yuan/ton (+95) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 618 yuan/ton (+13), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,000 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 915 yuan/ton (+41), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 113.5 yuan/ton (+200.6), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was - 238.46 yuan/ton (+271.63), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 740.29 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and operation rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 44.29 tons (+0.00), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 3.94 tons (+1.16), and the caustic soda operation rate was 85.60% (-2.00%) [2]. - Downstream operation rate of caustic soda: The operation rate of alumina was 83.18% (-0.28%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China was 0.00% (+0.00%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber was 88.43% (+0.15%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The export tax rebate for PVC was cancelled on April 1st. The "rush to export" led to strong export orders, but the export orders declined before the festival. The upstream inventory pressure was not large. The overall supply - demand pattern remained weak, with sufficient domestic supply and an expected increase in spring maintenance in April. The downstream operation rate decreased significantly during the Spring Festival and will gradually recover after the festival. The social inventory increased after the festival and was at a high level year - on - year. The upstream chlor - alkali production profit was slightly repaired but still at a low level year - on - year. The calcium carbide price decreased, and the semi - coke price was stable. The semi - coke profit was still in a loss. The PVC warehouse receipts were at a high level in the same period, and there was still pressure on the futures market for hedging. Although the supply - demand was weak, the "rush to export" sentiment supported the spot, and the market expected the long - term cost of PVC to increase. With the valuation repair of the chemical industry, the market expectation for PVC was strong. However, the inventory accumulated during the Spring Festival and the incomplete recovery of downstream operations will keep the short - term supply - demand weak. As the downstream operations recover, the expectation of spring maintenance increases, and the macro - expectations strengthen, the market is expected to improve [3]. Caustic Soda - After the Spring Festival, some traders and downstream users replenished their stocks, leading to a slight increase in the spot price of caustic soda. The subsidy for liquid chlorine during the festival decreased, and the cost support weakened compared with before the festival. Some enterprises in Shandong reduced their production, and the supply decreased slightly. The low - price spot before the festival stimulated the stocking sentiment, and the caustic soda inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu decreased. The demand side had a general receiving sentiment. Some alumina plants were under maintenance, and the operation rate decreased slightly. The anti - involution of alumina led to a decrease in the long - term demand expectation for caustic soda. The commissioning progress of alumina in Guangxi was postponed, and the market's purchasing power for caustic soda was insufficient. There was some purchasing demand after the festival. The non - aluminum operation rate decreased before the festival, and the purchasing behavior during the Spring Festival weakened. The export orders improved slightly before the festival. Currently, the caustic soda warehouse receipts suppressed the futures market, but the market purchasing sentiment is expected to improve as the downstream operations resume and the restocking demand is released [3]. Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Short - term oscillation - Inter - delivery: Go long on the V05 - 09 spread when it is low - Inter - commodity: None [4] Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Short - term oscillation, pay attention to downstream purchasing sentiment - Inter - delivery: Go long on the SH04 - 05 spread when it is low - Inter - commodity: None [5]