Market Overview - On May 9, the three major stock indices opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 3350.41 points, down 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 10190.13 points, down 0.07%, and the ChiNext Index at 2028.43 points, down 0.05% [3] Industry Insights - Gold, retail, CPO, and semiconductor sectors experienced significant declines, while military stocks showed strength [3] - Recent mergers and acquisitions in the military sector, particularly by central enterprises, are expected to have a profound impact on the industry, with notable short-term stock price increases following the implementation of these capital operations [4] Sector Analysis - **Telecommunications Sector**: - The telecommunications sector is expected to benefit from increased investment in AI computing power, with a focus on optical communication performance growth through 2025. The sector is also anticipated to see stable growth in telecom operators' performance and a shift in capital expenditure towards intelligent computing [7] - **Automotive Sector**: - The automotive industry index showed a relative increase of 12.51% compared to the CSI 300 index in Q1 2025. The market is driven by policies supporting vehicle upgrades, leading to high sales growth. The proportion of automotive stocks in public fund holdings reached a historical high of 3.47%, with continuous increases over five quarters [8] - The upcoming Shanghai Auto Show is expected to showcase numerous new energy vehicles, likely boosting consumer purchasing enthusiasm and sustaining high market activity in the automotive sector [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the growth potential of Japanese telecom operators in emerging B2B businesses and international expansion, particularly focusing on NTT's strategies and performance in these areas [1][2][3]. Group 1: Emerging Business Strategies - Japanese telecom operators, including NTT, KDDI, and Softbank, are increasingly investing in B2B services, cloud computing, and data centers, with NTT leading in international business expansion [2][3]. - NTT has established NTT DATA to manage its emerging business, which includes system integration, cloud services, and global data center services [2][3]. - NTT DATA has expanded internationally through acquisitions, including the purchase of Verio in 2000 and Dell's IT services division in 2016, and operates over 150 data centers globally with a total load exceeding 1,400 MW [2][3]. Group 2: Traditional Business and Regulatory Environment - The traditional telecom business in Japan faces significant regulatory pressures, leading to a decline in mobile ARPU, which has been decreasing since 2021 due to government calls for lower pricing [3][30]. - Japanese telecom operators are diversifying into value-added services, including digital content, lifestyle services, and financial services, to stabilize revenue amid declining ARPU [3][38]. - The regulatory environment encourages fair competition and restricts excessive pricing and subsidies, impacting the operators' pricing strategies [30][35]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Growth - NTT's revenue from global solutions, primarily B2B services, has shown a CAGR of 9% from FY20 to FY23, while traditional communication revenue has only grown at 1% [16][45]. - The overall revenue growth for Japanese telecom operators has been steady, with NTT and KDDI achieving CAGRs of 2.0% and 4.0% respectively from FY10 to FY23 [45][47]. - NTT's capital expenditure is shifting towards emerging businesses, with plans to invest approximately 12 trillion yen from FY23 to FY27, focusing on digital transformation, AI, and data centers [50][53].

文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人钟天 当前的关税和2018年在多个维度上不存在可比性：一是全面的关税带来了明显的金融通缩（压低盈利 预期、侵蚀估值水平、引发去杠杆化以及信贷条件紧缩），二是陡增的关税水平很难由任何一方独自承 担（出口商、进口商、消费者）。 在 美国经济的供需两端都面临"涨价约束"的情况下，美国的关税通胀可能被高估。 首先是需求端，消费者信心预期已经跌破数年来的低点。 而在消费者信心指数出现向下拐点之前， 美国耐用品的前置消费就已发生，说明当时的消费数据已经 包含了部分关税预期。 居民部门的提前囤货反映出他们对于潜在关税的敏感，这意味着消费者可能不会为高关税买单，而是会 选择直接减少消费。 在消费信心疲软且车贷利率高企的背景下，3月美国汽车消费录得了4年来的新高，反映出消费者对于 即将征收汽车关税的规避，未来需求将不可避免地快速回落。 关税是需求紧缩政策：既可以看作是财政紧缩（美国私人部门承担关税），也可以看 作是货币紧缩（非美私人部门承担关税）。 当前的消费放缓不仅包括商品消费的前置和 消费信心的下降，还包括服务消费的自然下行。 比如 美国 本土出行旅游等非必要消费的下降， 酒店入住率持续下行且同比 ...

中泰证券研报指出，红利属性凸显，关注银行股投资价值。银行股红利属性凸显，建议积极关注银行股 的投资价值，关注大行、招行和优质城农商行。 NO.3 中信建投：5月市场或维持震荡格局，短期风险偏好继续边际改善 NO.1 中金：A股节后有望迎来"开门红" 5月6日，中金公司（601995）研报认为，一季度A股上市企业业绩边际改善，关税预期在小长假期间略 显和缓，港股美股在A股休市期间表现较好，国内外环境对A股整体影响偏积极，在此背景下A股节后 有望迎来"开门红"。配置层面，结合关税影响和行业景气度，建议考虑以下思路：1）景气回升并且受 关税影响不大的领域，例如DeepSeek突破加速AI产业发展，AI产业链中的云计算、算力等基础设施环 节，再到机器人、智能驾驶等应用环节，仍是重要主线。此外，部分对美敞口不高的出口链，如工程机 械、电网设备、商用车等也值得关注。2）现金流优质、与外需关联度不高的红利板块，例如水电、电 信运营商、食品饮料等行业的龙头公司。 NO.2 中泰证券（600918）：红利属性凸显，关注银行股投资价值 ｜2025年5月6日 星期二｜ 中信建投（601066）证券研报认为，上周全球市场避险情绪降温 ...

Group 1 - The central political bureau meeting emphasized the need for a stable and active capital market, leading insurance companies to plan for increased equity asset allocation [1] - Since the approval of the second batch of long-term stock investment trials by the financial regulatory authority, the scale has reached over 100 billion, with more insurance institutions looking to participate [1][2] - Insurance funds are increasingly focusing on core A-share assets, particularly those close to the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, while also paying attention to sectors like banking, transportation, public utilities, telecommunications, and pharmaceuticals [1][3] Group 2 - In the first quarter, insurance funds increased their holdings in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, steel, home appliances, and defense, indicating a shift in investment strategy [2] - Insurance institutions maintain an optimistic outlook for the market, with a focus on stable dividend strategies and a continued emphasis on the pharmaceutical sector due to its favorable mid-term performance [3] - The expected influx of several hundred billion yuan in new capital into the market is driven by the need for insurance funds to seek absolute returns in a low-interest-rate environment [3][4] Group 3 - Regulatory measures to raise the equity allocation limits for insurance companies reflect a commitment to stabilize the market and boost confidence [4] - The current environment of low interest rates and asset scarcity makes high-dividend stocks a necessary choice for insurance companies, positioning them as a key focus for future equity allocations [4]

Core Insights - Insurance funds have invested in 376 companies as of April 28, with a total holding of 25.701 billion shares valued at 278.739 billion yuan [1][2] - The sectors favored by insurance funds include banking, telecommunications, hardware equipment, non-ferrous metals, and public utilities [1] Investment Preferences - Insurance funds prefer high dividend yield stocks, particularly in the banking sector, holding approximately 141.722 billion yuan in bank stocks, which is the highest among all sectors [2] - The telecommunications sector follows, with a total holding of about 28.544 billion yuan in stocks from China Unicom, China Telecom, and China Mobile [2] Increased Activity - There has been a significant increase in the frequency of insurance companies acquiring stakes in listed companies, with 12 instances reported in 2023, up from 2 in the same period last year [2] - Among these acquisitions, 6 were in the banking sector, indicating a strong preference for high dividend potential large-cap stocks [2]

金十数据4月28日讯，西班牙停电后，部分地区的手机信号中断。沃达丰西班牙公司表示，由于使用了 发电机，其网络有70%的活跃度，而另一家运营商Orange则要求客户只有在必要时才使用手机进行通 信，以避免使网络不堪重负。 西班牙电信公司要求客户非必要不要使用手机 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业专题 | 通信 全年业绩低点已过，AI 算力增长加速 ——电信运营商行业点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 25Q1 行业增速较缓，或为年内低点，全年节奏有望前低后高 25Q1 行业增速放缓，或受基数高、主动精细化项目管理等因素影响。2025 年一 季度，电信业务收入累计完成 4469 亿元，同比增速约 0.7%。我们认为，行业增 速较缓主要系多因素综合影响：一是，2024 年同期基数相对较高，2024Q1 的行 业整体收入无论从绝对值角度还是同比增速角度，均处于相对高位。二是，今年 以来宏观环境依旧复杂多变，随着国内一系列政策陆续部署出台，内需修复的持 续性仍需巩固。三是，运营商进行精细化项目管理，对部分高风险项目主动进行 管控。 2024 年经营数据季度分布呈现 U 形走势，Q2、Q3 基数相对较低。具体来看， 2024 年 1-3 月、1-6 月、1-9 月、1-12 月，行业整体电信业务收入累计增速分别 为 4.5%、3.0%、2.6%、3.2%。拆分单季度数据来看，2024Q1、Q2、Q3、Q4， 行业整体电信业务收入单季度同比增速分别为 4.5%、1.6%、1.8%、5.1%。参照 我们 ...

Group 1: Fixed Income and Currency - The recent decline in the US dollar index indicates a weakening of its safe-haven attributes, influenced by multiple long-term and short-term factors, including tariff policies and economic recession concerns [2][3] - Gold is identified as a primary beneficiary of a weak dollar, although it is currently overbought and sensitive to negative news [2] - The report suggests that Eurozone assets may replace US dollar assets as a new safe haven, with potential opportunities in the Japanese yen and Japanese stocks [2] Group 2: Internet and Gaming Industry - The gaming industry shows resilience with new game launches, particularly from Tencent and NetEase, expected to enhance revenue streams [3][4] - In Q1, domestic iOS game revenue increased by 2.8% year-on-year, with significant growth during the Spring Festival for popular games [3] - The government is providing more policy support for the gaming industry, including initiatives to promote overseas expansion and the establishment of new educational programs [3] Group 3: Real Estate Sector - Public fund holdings in real estate stocks have decreased, while concentration has increased, indicating a mixed sentiment among institutional investors [5] - The report anticipates a potential increase in policy support for the real estate sector, driven by seasonal trends and external economic factors [5] Group 4: Pharmaceutical and Health Sector - The gene sequencing industry is entering a new era, with domestic companies expected to accelerate their market share due to recent government restrictions on foreign competitors [6] - Companies like BGI are positioned as leaders in the sequencing service market, with a comprehensive approach to health and disease prevention [6] Group 5: Telecommunications Industry - China Mobile reported a slight increase in revenue and a notable growth in net profit, driven by advancements in AI services [7][8] - The company is transitioning from cloud computing to AI-integrated services, which is expected to become a new revenue growth driver [7] Group 6: Consumer Goods and Retail - Pop Mart's Q1 performance exceeded expectations, with significant revenue growth attributed to both domestic and international markets [9] - The company is expanding its product offerings and optimizing its store formats to enhance customer engagement and sales [9] Group 7: Electric Equipment and New Energy - Dongfang Cable reported a substantial increase in revenue and net profit, driven by growth in high-margin export sales [10] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for offshore wind projects and related cable installations [10] Group 8: Agriculture and Food Sector - Salted Fish's revenue and net profit showed strong growth, driven by an expanding product range and improved distribution channels [15] - The company is leveraging its diverse product offerings to capture market share and enhance profitability [15] Group 9: Financial Services - The internet finance sector is experiencing stable growth, with healthy loan quality and increasing profitability [6] - Regulatory changes are expected to positively impact leading platforms while potentially accelerating the exit of smaller players [6] Group 10: Materials and Chemicals - Feikai Materials reported significant growth in net profit, supported by new projects and a strong market position in the semiconductor sector [22] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the demand for lithium battery materials, with improving profitability anticipated [22]

The telecom giant is very profitable and produces strong cash flow. Its cash flow from operations was $7.8 billion during the first quarter, a $700 million increase from the prior year. It was enough cash to cover its capital expenses ($4.1 billion) and dividend payment ($2.9 billion), with room to spare ($700 million in excess free cash flow). That continued its trend of producing strong excess free cash flow. Verizon generated $8.6 billion in excess free cash flow after capital expenses and dividend payme ...