摘要：【图】2025年9月宁夏回族自治区硫酸产量数据分析 2025年9月硫酸产量统计： 硫酸产量：7.1 万吨 同比增长：-9.3% 增速较上一年同期变化：低35.2个百分点 据统计，2025年9月宁夏回族自治区规模以上工业企业硫酸产量与上年同期相比下降了9.3%，达7.1万 吨，增速较上一年同期低35.2个百分点，增速较同期全国低14.9个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业 硫酸产量923.86758万吨的比重为0.8%。 详见下图： 同比增长：-3.1% 增速较上一年同期变化：低35.0个百分点 据统计，2025年1－9月，宁夏回族自治区规模以上工业企业硫酸产量与上年同期相比下降了3.1%，达 60.4万吨，增速较上一年同期低35.0个百分点，增速较同期全国低8.5个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上 企业硫酸产量8329.56708万吨的比重为0.7%。详见下图： 图2：宁夏回族自治区硫酸产量分月（累计值）统计图 图1：宁夏回族自治区硫酸产量分月（当月值）统计图 2025年1-9月硫酸产量统计： 硫酸产量：60.4 万吨 注：从2011年起，我国规模以上工业企业起点标准由原来的年主营业务收入500万元提高到年主 ...

燃料油日报 | 2026-01-21 燃料油东西价差走阔，关注套利船货量增长 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌1.72%，报2512元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.23%，报3078 元/吨。 伊朗局势暂时处于可控范围，对石油供应未造成影响，地缘溢价回落，成本端对FU、LU价格的驱动偏弱。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，当前市场多空因素交织，整体矛盾有限。其中，高硫燃料油短期需要关注美湾裂解价 差下跌对亚太与国内市场的拖累，以及下游炼厂端需求的潜在增量。就地缘层面而言，目前情绪已经降温，但伊 朗局势仍存在不确定性，消息面的变化会对市场形成反复扰动，需要保持关注。低硫燃料油方面，当前整体矛盾 与驱动均有限。随着阿祖尔和Dangote炼厂装置状态变化，科威特与尼日利亚发货量出现回升，尤其是科威特1月 份发货量较高，将带来一定局部压力。 整体来看，当前燃料油市场呈现东强西弱的格局，东西价差走阔将带动套利窗口打开，从而导致套利船货量的回 升，对亚太及国内市场有潜在压制。 策略 高硫方面：短期中性；中期偏空 低硫方面：短期中性；中期偏空 跨品种：无 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观风险、关税 ...

图1：安徽省纯碱(碳酸钠)产量分月（当月值）统计图 摘要：【图】2025年9月安徽省纯碱(碳酸钠)产量数据 2025年9月纯碱(碳酸钠)产量统计： 纯碱(碳酸钠)产量：7.2 万吨 同比增长：-15.6% 增速较上一年同期变化：低109.7个百分点 据统计，2025年9月安徽省规模以上工业企业纯碱(碳酸钠)产量与上年同期相比下降了15.6%，达7.2万 吨，增速较上一年同期低109.7个百分点，增速较同期全国低26.1个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业 纯碱(碳酸钠)产量335.71315万吨的比重为2.1%。 详见下图： 2025年1-9月纯碱(碳酸钠)产量统计： 纯碱(碳酸钠)产量：60.0 万吨 同比增长：-23.6% 增速较上一年同期变化：低33.4个百分点 据统计，2025年1－9月，安徽省规模以上工业企业纯碱(碳酸钠)产量与上年同期相比下降了23.6%，达 60.0万吨，增速较上一年同期低33.4个百分点，增速较同期全国低27.9个百分点，约占同期全国规模以 上企业纯碱(碳酸钠)产量2961.14735万吨的比重为2.0%。详见下图： 图2：安徽省纯碱(碳酸钠)产量分月（累计值）统计图 注：从20 ...

中化新网讯 日前，石油化工科学研究院天津科学试验基地项目中间交工暨首产成功仪式在天津经济技 术开发区举行。此前，石科院管理的公司北京兴普精细化工技术开发有限公司在基地打通润滑油脂生产 线全流程，首批润滑油脂产品成功试生产下线，基地正式具备生产能力，实现"研发—中试—生产"全链 条贯通。 石科院天津科学试验基地项目是中石化天津南港工业区高端新材料集群重点项目之一，建有低碳油化一 体化、资源循环利用、新材料、高端化学品、氢能及电化学5个科研中试平台，以及特种润滑油脂、石 油产品中试生产基地，由广州工程公司设计、四建公司承建。按照项目验收及合同关闭路线图，项目建 设依次包括机械完工、机械竣工、中间交工验收、交工验收、竣工验收等关键节点。2023年3月，该项 目启动地基预处理工程，今年9月实现生产区机械竣工。 ...

其中，30万吨/年管式法装置主打规模化光伏级EVA生产，计划于2027年12月底建成中交;10万吨/年釜式 法装置专攻高端特种H-EVA产品，计划于2028年2月底建成中交，技术路线精准适配高端市场需求。 中化新网讯 1月16日，中国石油广西石化公司30万吨/年EVA装置(管式法)和10万吨/年H-EVA装置(釜式 法)正式开工建设。 据悉，两套装置生产的产品将覆盖光伏胶膜、高端线缆、发泡制品、医疗器具等领域。其中，光伏级 EVA产品可有效填补国内高标号光伏胶膜用EVA自给缺口;高端线缆用EVA适配新能源汽车、智能电网 等高端应用场景;发泡级产品可替代传统材料应用于高端包装、汽车内饰。 图为开工仪式现场。 (企业供图) ...

Group 1 - Major project construction is seen as a "ballast" and "strong engine" for accelerating high-quality development, with various provinces releasing key project lists for 2026, particularly in the oil and chemical sectors [1] - Sichuan Province has announced a total of 830 key projects for 2026, with an expected investment of 762.48 billion yuan, including several significant oil and chemical projects [1] - Jiangsu Province's key project list includes 670 projects, with a focus on strategic emerging industries, advanced manufacturing, and several petrochemical projects [2] Group 2 - Hebei Province plans to arrange 747 key construction projects for 2026, with a total investment of 1.56 trillion yuan, focusing on strategic emerging industries and traditional industry upgrades [2] - Shanxi Province has included 629 projects in its 2026 key project list, with 63.4% focused on energy transition and industrial upgrades, highlighting the importance of these sectors [3] - The energy transition projects in Shanxi involve hydrogen energy, new materials, and green electricity, along with various petrochemical projects aimed at enhancing sustainability [3]

中辉能化观点 中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 地缘与供给过剩拉锯，油价蓄势调整。地缘：中东地缘出现缓和，但仍具 不确定性，注意防范风险；核心驱动：淡季供给过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+ | | 原油 | 谨慎看空 | 仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油激增，美国原油和成品油库存 | | ★ | | 均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化， | | | | 俄乌以及中东地缘进展。 | | | | 中东地缘缓和，跟随成本端油价回落。中长期锚定成本端原油，随着中东 | | LPG | | 地缘缓和，成本端油价回落；供需方面，液化气商品量出现下降，PDH 开 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 工率维持在 70%上方，下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端利多，港口库存环 | | | | 比下降。 | | L | | 线性排产回升，期现共振下跌，基差大幅走弱。停车比例下滑至 9%，本 | | ★ | 空头延续 | 周装置重启计划增加，预计产量小幅回升，农膜需求淡季，终端补库持续 | | | | 性不足 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The GDP growth in Q4 2025 was 4.5%, and the full - year growth target of 5% was achieved, meeting market expectations. The market will discuss the economic growth expectations for 2026 and the Two Sessions' target settings. For the bond market, the central bank's attitude is the key factor in 2026, and a total interest - rate cut is expected in Q2 [27]. - The central bank's resumption of bond - buying may be a long - term consideration, and the continuity of bond - buying is high. In 2026, the imbalance between supply and demand in the bond market needs attention, with the core being demand. The bond market still needs to consider the impacts of "imbalance between supply and demand, expectations of rising prices, and re - balancing of asset allocation due to capital diversion" [28]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - In December 2025, GDP at constant prices had a quarterly - on - quarterly growth of 4.5%, lower than the previous quarter's 4.8% and the same period last year's 5.4% [1]. - The manufacturing PMI in December 2025 was 50.1%, up from 49.8% in the previous month and the same as the same period last year [1]. - The non - manufacturing PMI for business activities in December 2025 was 50.2%, up from 50.0% in the previous month but lower than 52.2% in the same period last year [1]. - The monthly value of social financing scale in December 2025 was 2207.5 billion yuan, down from 3529.9 billion yuan in the previous month and 2853.7 billion yuan in the same period last year [1]. - Various monetary indicators such as M0, M1, M2, and new RMB loans also showed different trends in December 2025 compared with the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - CPI in December 2025 had a year - on - year growth of 0.8%, up from - 0.3% in the previous month and 0.1% in the same period last year; PPI was - 1.9%, up from - 2.3% in the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - The cumulative year - on - year growth of fixed - asset investment completion in December 2025 was - 3.8%, down from - 0.5% in the previous month and 3.2% in the same period last year [1]. - The cumulative year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods in December 2025 was 3.7%, down from 4.5% in the previous month but up from 3.5% in the same period last year [1]. - The year - on - year growth of export and import amounts in December 2025 was 6.60% and 5.70% respectively, down from 8.20% and 7.40% in the previous month and 10.67% and 0.84% in the same period last year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The National Development and Reform Commission is planning major high - tech projects for the 15th Five - Year Plan period, formulating an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 - 2030, and considering setting up a national - level merger and acquisition fund. It will also promote the expansion and quality improvement of the service industry [2]. - The LPR in January 2026 remained unchanged for the 8th consecutive month, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.0% and the 5 - year - plus LPR at 3.5% [2]. - Shanghai introduced 18 measures to enhance the influence of non - ferrous metal commodities and global pricing, including supporting settlement through the Commodity Clearing Link and opening up futures and options varieties [3]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the trading margin ratios and price limit ranges for copper, aluminum, gold, and silver futures contracts [3]. - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange Center adjusted the trading margin ratios and price limit ranges for international copper futures contracts [4]. - On January 20, 37 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 32 had negative basis, with significant differences in basis among different varieties [4]. 3.2.2 Metals - On the morning of January 21, New York gold futures exceeded $4780 per ounce, and domestic gold jewelry prices also increased, with some brands' pure gold prices exceeding 1450 yuan per gram [5]. - "Investment copper bars" have become popular recently, with a 1000 - gram copper bar costing 180 - 288 yuan in Shenzhen Shuibei Market [5]. - The Polish central bank approved a plan to buy up to 150 tons of gold, increasing its gold reserves to 700 tons [5]. - On January 19, the inventories of lead, tin, zinc, and copper in the London Metal Exchange reached new highs, while the inventories of cobalt and aluminum reached new lows [6]. - As of January 20, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, decreased by 0.37%, or 4.01 tons, to 1081.66 tons [6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, Shanxi produced 65 billion tons of coal, with an output of over 13 billion tons in 2025, an increase of 19 billion tons compared with the 13th Five - Year Plan [8]. - The first shipment of nearly 200,000 tons of Simandou iron ore arrived in China on January 17, enhancing global iron ore supply [8]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices increased by 85 yuan per ton from January 20, 24:00, due to rising international oil prices [9]. - The US government obtained 50 million barrels of oil from Venezuela and sold part of it on the open market [9]. - Venezuela officially launched the export of liquefied petroleum gas [9]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Brazil's corn and soybean exports in January 2026 are expected to be 3.45 million tons and 3.79 million tons respectively, higher than the previous week's forecasts, while soybean meal exports are expected to be 1.82 million tons, the same as the previous week [10]. - As of January 15, the EU's soft wheat exports in the 2025/26 season were 11.8 million tons, slightly lower than the same period last year [10]. - The US export inspection volumes of soybeans, wheat, and corn were 1,336,684 tons, 392,611 tons, and 1,483,622 tons respectively [11]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On January 20, the central bank conducted 324 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 34.6 billion yuan due to 358.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities [12]. 3.3.2 Key News - A package of policies to promote domestic demand through fiscal - financial coordination was introduced, including a 500 - billion - yuan special guarantee plan for private investment and loan interest - subsidy policies for small and medium - sized enterprises [13]. - The National Development and Reform Commission stated that in 2026, macro - policies will focus on strengthening the domestic cycle, expanding domestic demand, and promoting high - tech projects [13]. - The Ministry of Finance said that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, debt scale, and expenditure will remain at necessary levels, and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds will continue to be issued [14]. - The Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development introduced measures to support urban renewal [15]. - The preferential tax policies for community - based family services such as elderly care, childcare, and housekeeping were extended from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [16]. - The latest LPR remained unchanged for the 8th consecutive month since May 2025, and experts believe that the stable macro - economy is the main reason [17]. - Beijing's 2026 construction land supply plan was announced, with specific land allocations for commercial and affordable housing and a focus on urban renewal [18]. - Guangzhou is promoting legislation for the renewal of state - owned land housing, with a planned fixed - asset investment of 120 billion yuan for urban village renovation in 2026 [18]. - The Greenland crisis and fiscal pressure concerns led to a global bond market sell - off, with significant fluctuations in Japanese and US bond yields [18]. - The Japanese Finance Minister tried to calm the bond market, emphasizing the responsibility and sustainability of fiscal policies [18]. - All Japanese central bank observers predict that the benchmark interest rate will remain unchanged on Friday, and the government may intervene in the foreign exchange market if the yen depreciates [19]. - There were several bond - related events, including payment due dates and corporate management changes [19]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - China's bond market showed positive trends, with falling yields on spot bonds and rising prices of bond futures. The money market was generally stable, but the DR001 rate increased due to the tax period [20]. - The exchange - traded bond market had different performances among different bond types, with some bonds rising and some falling [21]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index and the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index both declined, with significant differences in individual bond performances [22]. - Most money market interest rates and Shibor short - term rates increased [22]. - Bank - to - bank repurchase fixed - rate and silver - bank repurchase fixed - rate also showed upward trends [23]. - The winning bid yields and multiples of financial bonds issued by the Agricultural Development Bank and the National Development and Reform Commission were announced [23][24]. - European and US bond yields generally increased [24][25]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 33 basis points to 6.9603 at 16:30, and the central parity rate rose 45 basis points to 7.0006 [26]. - At the New York close, the US dollar index fell 0.50% to 98.55, and most non - US currencies rose [26]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the central bank's attitude is crucial for the 2026 bond market, and a total interest - rate cut is expected in Q2 [27]. - Shenwan Hongyuan Fixed - Income believes that the central bank's bond - buying is likely to be continuous, and in 2026, attention should be paid to the imbalance between supply and demand in the bond market, with the interest rate level expected to be lower in the first half and higher in the second half [28]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - On Tuesday, the A - share market adjusted, with a style shift from high - valuation growth sectors to value sectors. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.01%, and the trading volume increased [30]. - The Hong Kong stock market continued to adjust, with technology stocks leading the decline and real - estate stocks rising. Southbound funds had a net purchase of nearly HK$3.7 billion [31]. - As of January 20, over 500 A - share companies had disclosed 2025 performance forecasts, with about 200 expecting growth and over 100 expecting a net profit increase of over 100%. However, some sectors such as photovoltaic, liquor, and pig farming faced performance pressure [31]. 3.5 Today's Reminders - On January 21, 230 bonds will be listed, 122 bonds will be issued, 82 bonds will be settled, and 207 bonds will pay principal and interest [29].

【开源化工-日度数据跟踪＆反内卷产品跟踪】 各位领导，这是1月20日化工品价格价差及化工企业股价涨跌幅情况，1月20日： 上证综指报4113.65，日环比-0.01%；基础化工、石油化工分别报7785.68、4841.91，分别日环比+0.35%、 +2.58%。 反内卷产品中价格涨幅靠前的为：聚酯瓶片、己内酰胺，分别环比昨天+0.75%、0.54%。 价差涨幅前5为：磷酸铁锂、顺酐、硬泡聚醚、草甘膦、苯酚，分别环比昨天+52.62%、38.41%、37.5%、 29.24%、17.62%； 化工企业股价涨幅前5为：江天化学、怡达股份、润丰股份、七彩化学、红棉股份，分别环比昨天+19.99%、 11.96%、10.72%、10.71%、10.13%。 今日重点公告： 【东方铁塔】业绩预告：公司预计2025年归属于上市公司股东的净利润为10.8-12.7亿元，同比+91.4%-125.07%。 【芭田股份】业绩预告：公司预计2025年归属于上市公司股东的净利润为8.9-9.8亿元，同比+117.53%-139.53%。 价格涨幅前5为：R125、R22、烟酰胺、丙烯酸、醋酸正丙酯，分别环比昨天+3.09%、2. ...

Core Insights - South Korea's exports accelerated in the first 20 days of January, primarily driven by strong semiconductor demand, while automotive exports weakened due to increased tariffs in the U.S. [1] - The export growth rate reached 14.9% year-on-year, surpassing the revised 13.3% growth for the entire month of December [1] - Semiconductor exports surged by 70.2%, supported by global AI and data center investment trends, while automotive exports fell nearly 11% [1] Export Performance - The total export value for the first 20 days of January was 14.9% higher year-on-year, with imports increasing by 4.2%, resulting in a trade deficit of $626 million [1] - Wireless communication devices and petrochemical products also saw significant export growth, increasing by 48% and 18% respectively [1] - The decline in automotive exports reflects a slowdown in global demand and the impact of U.S. tariffs, with shipbuilding exports also down by 18% [1] Economic Context - The strong export growth is seen as a key driver for South Korea's economy in 2023, with semiconductor demand expected to offset declines in other sectors [1] - The recent trade agreement with the U.S. set a tariff cap of 15% on imported goods, including automobiles, which has raised concerns about long-term export challenges for the economy [2] - The depreciation of the Korean won against the U.S. dollar has improved price competitiveness for exports but has also increased inflationary pressures [2] Monetary Policy - The Bank of Korea maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2.5% for the fifth consecutive meeting, signaling a neutral stance amid mixed economic growth risks [2] - Core inflation and overall inflation have exceeded the central bank's target of 2%, raising concerns about rising import costs due to a weak won [2] Trade Partner Dynamics - Exports to China and the U.S. grew by 30.2% and 19.3% respectively, while exports to the EU and Japan declined by approximately 15% and 13% [2]