转自：新华财经 新华财经北京2月5日电（记者刘玉龙） 5日，由中物联大宗商品流通分会和上海钢联等单位联合调查，中国物流与采购联合会发布的2026年1月份中国大宗 商品价格指数（CBPI）为125.3点，环比上涨6.3%，同比上涨12.7%，创2022年7月以来新高。 业内人士分析认为，"两重""两新"政策加力扩围，"反内卷"政策不断深化，提振市场信心，企业预期保持乐观，生产活动延续扩张态势，为"十五五"开局奠 定良好基础。但同时也要看到，国际地缘政治深刻演变、全球货币政策宽松预期以及国际大宗商品期货价格剧烈波动，带动国内有色、化工等价格快速上 涨，亦对国内大宗商品市场带来多重挑战。 图为中国 大宗商品价格指数和CPI、PPI走势 1月份，农产品价格指数小幅走高，报98.3点，环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨5.7%。山东隆众分析师王立晨表示，临近春节，部分农产品品种下游备货需求上 升，价格小幅上行。 | 表为1月份中国大宗商品价格指数及分项指数对比 | | --- | | 项目 | 中国大宗商品 | 能源价格 化工价格 | | 黑色价格 | 有色价格 | | 矿产价格 农产品价格 | | --- | --- | - ...

Core Insights - The China Commodity Price Index (CBPI) for January 2026 reached 125.3 points, marking a month-on-month increase of 6.3% and a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, the highest since July 2022 [1][3] - The increase in the index is attributed to optimistic business expectations and ongoing production expansion, supported by government policies [1] - However, challenges arise from international geopolitical changes, loose monetary policy expectations, and volatile commodity futures prices, necessitating careful risk assessment and macroeconomic policy adjustments [1] Price Index Summary - The CBPI increased to 125.3 points from 117.9 points in December 2025, with significant contributions from various sectors [3] - The energy price index decreased to 94.6 points, down 3.2% month-on-month and down 11.6% year-on-year [3] - The chemical price index rose to 99.3 points, up 3.8% month-on-month but down 9.8% year-on-year [3] - The black metal price index increased to 79.2 points, up 2.2% month-on-month and down 1.6% year-on-year [3] - The non-ferrous metal price index surged to 159.6 points, up 9.9% month-on-month and up 26.6% year-on-year [3] - The agricultural product price index slightly increased to 98.3 points, up 0.2% month-on-month and up 5.7% year-on-year [3] - The mineral price index fell to 71.3 points, down 0.3% month-on-month and down 10.3% year-on-year [3] Commodity Price Movements - Among 50 monitored commodities, 33 (66%) saw price increases while 17 (34%) experienced declines [4] - The top three commodities with the highest month-on-month price increases were lithium carbonate (up 48.4%), refined tin (up 20.2%), and refined nickel (up 19.5%) [4] - The commodities with the largest month-on-month price declines were corrugated paper (down 13.1%), caustic soda (down 7%), and coke (down 6.9%) [4] Comparative Analysis - The CBPI trends align with the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December, which saw a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [5] - The CBPI has shown a consistent upward trend alongside international commodity indices such as CRB and S&P GSCI [5] - Geopolitical tensions in North America and the Middle East, along with a weakening US dollar, have contributed to rising international oil prices and record highs in copper prices [5] - January saw historical highs in gold and silver prices, although significant declines occurred later in the month due to margin adjustments and Federal Reserve announcements [5]

Core Insights - Over 2900 A-share listed companies have released their 2025 earnings forecasts, with several high-performing companies attracting significant interest from fund institutions [1][2] Group 1: High-Performing Companies - Zijin Mining is expected to achieve a net profit of 510 billion to 520 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 59% to 62% [2] - Industrial Fulian is projected to realize a net profit of 351 billion to 357 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 51% to 54% [2][3] - Honghe Technology anticipates a net profit of 193 million to 226 million yuan in 2025, showing a remarkable year-on-year growth of 745% to 889% [5] - Baiwei Storage expects a net profit of 850 million to 1 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 427.19% to 520.22% [7] Group 2: Fund Holdings and Activity - As of the end of 2025, 78 fund companies hold products that include Zijin Mining, with notable funds managed by well-known managers [2] - 96 fund companies have products holding Industrial Fulian, with E Fund being the largest holder [3] - 40 fund companies have products holding Baiwei Storage, with several funds increasing their holdings in the fourth quarter of 2025 [7] - Multiple fund companies have newly entered the institutional investor list for Honghe Technology and Tonghua Dongbao in the fourth quarter of 2025 [6][11] Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - 604 listed companies are expected to have a lower limit of net profit growth of 100% or more in 2025, indicating a strong performance outlook [4] - Fund companies are focusing on companies with significant earnings growth and those expected to turn losses into profits, such as *ST Songfa and Tonghua Dongbao [9][10]

2月4日，外交部发言人林剑主持例行记者会。彭博社记者提问，数十位外长今天在华盛顿讨论欧盟提出 的建立一个关键矿产伙伴关系的建议，试图减少在关键矿产领域对中国的依赖。外交部对此有何回应？ 林剑指出，在维护关键矿产全球产供链稳定与安全的问题上，中方的立场没有变化，各方都有责任为此 发挥建设性作用。 "关于你提到欧美之间的相关备忘录，我要指出的是，中方一贯认为各国都应当遵守市场经济原则和国 际经贸规则，加强沟通对话，共同维护国际产供链的稳定畅通，推动世界经济稳定发展。"林剑说。 智通财经记者 杨文钦 朱郑勇 责任编辑：刘万里 SF014 2月4日，外交部发言人林剑主持例行记者会。彭博社记者提问，数十位外长今天在华盛顿讨论欧盟提出 的建立一个关键矿产伙伴关系的建议，试图减少在关键矿产领域对中国的依赖。外交部对此有何回应？ 林剑指出，在维护关键矿产全球产供链稳定与安全的问题上，中方的立场没有变化，各方都有责任为此 发挥建设性作用。 "关于你提到欧美之间的相关备忘录，我要指出的是，中方一贯认为各国都应当遵守市场经济原则和国 际经贸规则，加强沟通对话，共同维护国际产供链的稳定畅通，推动世界经济稳定发展。"林剑说。 智通财经 ...

Group 1 - The core initiative is the launch of a $12 billion critical mineral reserve project named the "Treasury Plan," aimed at supporting manufacturers and reducing reliance on Chinese rare earths [1] - The funding for the "Treasury Plan" includes approximately $2 billion in private capital and $10 billion in loans from the Export-Import Bank of the United States, targeting procurement and storage of critical minerals like rare earths, gallium, and cobalt [1] - The project is similar to the existing Strategic Petroleum Reserve but focuses on minerals essential for products such as smartphones, batteries, and jet engines [1] Group 2 - The plan currently involves participation from over a dozen companies, including General Motors, Stellantis, Boeing, Corning, and Google, with commodity traders expected to handle raw material procurement [1] - The objective is to establish a 60-day emergency mineral reserve, with initial work already underway [1] - However, there are concerns regarding the effectiveness of the plan, as the U.S. is heavily reliant on imports for 12 key minerals and over 50% for 29 others, indicating that the plan may not lead to immediate changes in dependency on China [2] Group 3 - Analysts express skepticism about the long-term impact of the "Treasury Plan," suggesting that while it may stabilize the U.S. market, it is not a quick fix for reducing reliance on China in the critical minerals sector [2] - Challenges include the limited sources for rare earths, particularly heavy rare earths, which may not be sufficiently met by U.S. and allied production [2] - The real difficulties in rebuilding the rare earth supply chain lie in acquiring technology and expanding production capacity, which are complex issues not easily resolved through simple actions [2]

特朗普再次上台后继续采取行动。去年6月，七国集团同意一项保障供应链安全和扩大经济的行动计 划。 本周一，七国集团财长会议召开之际，澳大利亚宣布其12亿澳元的战略储备将优先考虑锑、镓和稀土。 该国是世界最大关键矿产生产国之一，已经建立战略储备以降低供应链脆弱性，并向盟友供应。除了澳 大利亚，七国集团其他成员的稀土消费都依赖国外，日本尤其严重。 另据环球网消息，今年2月2日，特朗普在白宫宣布计划启动名为"金库计划"的战略性关键矿产储备，整 合20亿美元民间资金与美国进出口银行提供的100亿美元贷款，为汽车制造商、科技公司等制造商收购 并储备矿产，预计本周还将再宣布11项类似协议。美国国防部还另设有独立储备体系。 2月3日，中国外交部发言人林剑就美国关键矿产储备计划答记者问时表示，在维护关键矿产全球产业链 稳定与安全问题上，中方的立场没有变化。各方都有责任为此发挥建设性作用。 稀土等关键矿产元素是高科技产业的核心材料，推动全球技术创新和产业升级，也是先进武器系统、雷 达、导弹、卫星和隐身技术中不可或缺的关键材料，直接关系到国家的军事优势和国防安全。 早在3年前的拜登时期，美国与其他七国集团成员就开始酝酿建立关键矿产 ...

1、美国预计将启动一项 120 亿美元矿产储备计划，范围预计涵盖稀土、铜和锂等关键矿产； 2、SpaceX 收购 xAI，预计估值将达 1.25 万亿美元；浙大发布全球首个峰值速度达到 10m/s 的全尺寸 人形机器人； 3、2026 年中央一号文件：促进人工智能与农业发展相结合；上海：大力培育发展脑机接口、第四代半 导体等未来产业； 文字早评 2026/02/04 星期三 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 4、黄金/白银现货最高反弹 6.24%/11%；日经 225 指数涨近 4%，创历史新高；韩国综合指数涨近 7%。 基差年化比率： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：1.63%/1.37%/3.96%/4.07%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-3.32%/0.51%/6.16%/5.23%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-1.44%/2.85%/11.41%/8.91%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：1.77%/0.47%/1.63%/2.59%。 【策略观点】 近期政策更多是担心市场短期过热，慢牛才是政策的长期导向。中长期看政策支持资本市场的态度未变， 短期关注市场的节奏，策略上以逢低做多的思路为主。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the launch of the "Treasury Plan" by the Trump administration, aimed at establishing a strategic reserve for critical minerals to protect U.S. manufacturers from supply shocks and stabilize the market for key raw materials [2][3]. Group 1: Treasury Plan Overview - The Treasury Plan has an initial funding of $12 billion, with $10 billion provided by the Export-Import Bank and nearly $2 billion from private capital [2]. - The plan will cover critical minerals such as rare earths, copper, and lithium, and will be managed by commodity traders including Hartree Partners, Traxys North America, and Mercuria Energy Group [2][3]. - Companies that commit to purchasing materials at designated inventory prices can submit procurement lists and access the reserve in emergencies when market purchases are difficult [3]. Group 2: Market Impact and Participation - Over ten companies, including General Motors, Stellantis, Boeing, Corning, GE Vernova, and Google, are participating in the project [4]. - Analysts suggest that the U.S. government’s direct investment in stockpiling and forming strategic partnerships aims to reduce vulnerabilities in the metal supply chain [4]. - However, some industry leaders express skepticism about the effectiveness of the $12 billion investment, citing concerns over market disruption regulations and competition for supplies from other countries [4][5]. Group 3: Broader Strategic Context - The Trump administration has prioritized critical minerals as a strategic issue, implementing various executive orders to reform domestic permitting processes and support public-private partnerships [6]. - Significant investments have been made in domestic rare earth producers, including $400 million from the Department of Defense and $2.2 billion in loans to companies like MP Materials and Lithium Americas [6][8]. - Recent initiatives also include a $160 million debt and equity investment plan by the Department of Commerce to acquire a 10% stake in a U.S. rare earth company to enhance the supply chain for rare metals and magnets [8].

据北京日报消息，2月3日，外交部发言人林剑主持例行记者会。有记者对上述事件提问。林间表 示，"在维护关键矿产全球产业链稳定与安全问题上，中方的立场没有变化。各方都有责任为此发挥建 设性作用。" 金库计划是什么？ 据报道，在该计划下，那些初步承诺以指定的库存价格购买材料并预先支付部分费用的公司，将能够 向"金库项目"提交一份他们所需材料的采购清单。当这些公司在公开市场上难以采购材料时，可以在紧 急情况下从库存中提取矿物。 其中美国进出口银行提供100亿美元贷款，近20亿美元来自私人资本。 当地时间2月2日，美国总统特朗普宣布启动一项战略关键矿产储备项目"金库计划"，以保护美国制造商 免受供应冲击的影响。 据报道，金库计划初始资金规模达120亿美元，用于为汽车企业、科技公司、制造商等采购并储存矿产 资源。其中美国进出口银行提供100亿美元贷款，近20亿美元来自私人资本。 多位高级政府官员此前透露，这一计划类似于美国现有的战略石油储备。储备范围预计涵盖稀土、铜和 锂等关键矿产以及其他价格波动较大的战略性元素。这些矿产由三家大宗商品贸易商Hartree Partners、 Traxys North America和摩 ...

Core Viewpoint - Glencore is set to hire Citigroup as the lead investment bank for its potential acquisition deal, indicating a strategic move in the mining sector [1] Group 1: Company Actions - Glencore is preparing to engage Citigroup for a potential acquisition, highlighting its ongoing strategic initiatives in the mining industry [1] - Citigroup has a long-standing relationship with Glencore, having previously advised on significant transactions, including the 2011 IPO and the recent acquisition of Teck Resources' coal business [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The involvement of Citigroup in Glencore's potential acquisition suggests a competitive landscape in the mining sector, particularly with respect to mergers and acquisitions [1] - The disclosure submitted to the UK Takeover Panel indicates that Glencore is actively exploring opportunities to enhance its market position through strategic acquisitions [1]