Macroeconomic Environment - The three technology bull markets occurred during periods of "economic bottoming and policy stimulus," characterized by proactive fiscal and loose monetary policies[2] - Each bull market was supported by significant government policies aimed at promoting the technology industry, alleviating business pressures, and encouraging capital expenditure[2] Industry Development - The development of core industries followed a three-stage process: "overseas mapping, localization, and unknown fields" during the three technology bull markets[3] - The smartphone boom from 2009-2010 was driven by Apple's rise, leading to a strong A-share market performance linked to the Apple supply chain[3] - The mobile internet boom from 2013-2015 was catalyzed by the issuance of 4G licenses, resulting in a surge in portable device sales and software applications[3] - The new energy market from 2020-2021 saw the commercialization of electric vehicles, with Tesla proving the feasibility of electric cars[3] Future Outlook - The current macroeconomic environment aligns with the characteristics of a technology bull market, with more aggressive fiscal policies confirmed in March 2025[4] - The AI and robotics industries are entering the localization stage, with significant growth potential despite the distance to large-scale application[4] - Short-term uncertainties may exist, but the medium to long-term outlook for the technology market remains promising, warranting continuous monitoring of industry developments[4] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected geopolitical events, greater-than-expected domestic economic downturns, ineffective fiscal policy implementation, and slower-than-expected technology industry growth[4]

Group 1 - The core idea of the article revolves around Lei Jun's entrepreneurial journey in the internet sector, emphasizing his deep reflections on the internet, learning from various companies, and the evolution of Xiaomi [1][2] - Lei Jun views the internet primarily as a tool, predicting that all companies will eventually become internet companies. He believes that the internet represents a revolutionary change in mindset, focusing on open collaboration, machine-driven profits, word-of-mouth marketing, efficient management, service provision, and rapid growth [1][2][19] - Before founding Xiaomi, Lei Jun drew inspiration from companies like Tongrentang, Haidilao, Walmart, and Costco, focusing on quality products, exceptional service, low-margin high-efficiency operations, and community engagement through Xiaomi's platform [1][2][28] Group 2 - Lei Jun's cautious nature led to missed opportunities during the early internet boom at Kingsoft. His departure from Kingsoft marked a turning point, allowing him to regain confidence and experience before launching Xiaomi at the age of 40 with a commitment to innovation [2][3] - The external perception of Lei Jun and Xiaomi has been mixed, with initial praise for Xiaomi's internet model, followed by skepticism as competitors like OPPO and VIVO emerged. Lei Jun maintains that Xiaomi's growth phase is normal and that acceptance of its model may take up to 15 years [2][3] - Despite challenges such as low yield rates for products like Xiaomi MIX, Lei Jun remains committed to technological innovation and cost-based pricing, reflecting Xiaomi's core values [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The article reviews the transition patterns of six cyclical growth industries: new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, semiconductors, smartphones, mobile internet, and optical modules, proposing an investment framework of "cash flow improvement → capacity construction → profit release" to identify the conversion nodes from thematic consensus to performance realization [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Framework - Thematic investment focuses on the period from "concept germination" to "narrative consensus," relying on market imagination of long-term prospects to drive valuation increases, emphasizing unrefuted growth expectations [2]. - Cyclical growth investment captures "industry transition momentum" by identifying mismatches between cash flow improvement and low ROE during periods of unclear narrative consensus, establishing an odds advantage [2]. - The article utilizes the Geske option model to quantify the non-linear value of technological generational differences, anchoring the pricing boundaries of thematic investments [2]. Group 2: Industry Review - New Energy Vehicles: The evolution of China's new energy vehicle industry shows a clear three-stage path: feasibility verification starting in 2008, product breakthrough with mass production and battery technology iteration, and penetration explosion leading to a valuation system reconstruction [5][6]. - Photovoltaics: The Chinese photovoltaic industry has experienced three cycles characterized by policy-driven global installation surges, domestic policy support leading to grid parity, and a current phase of high growth driven by carbon neutrality and structural overcapacity [12][19]. - Semiconductors: The Chinese semiconductor industry has undergone three transitions, starting with basic production line construction, followed by accelerated policy-driven autonomy, and currently focusing on advanced process research and development amid US-China tensions [23][24]. Group 3: Future Investment Opportunities - The article suggests focusing on long-term investment opportunities in technology manufacturing fields such as AI+, intelligent driving, humanoid robots, low-altitude economy, commercial aerospace, biomanufacturing, future energy, and advanced semiconductor processes [1][2].