Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, oil prices are not easy to be overly bearish in the short - term. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports to confirm the price trend [1][2] - For methanol, with装置集中回归, domestic supply is high, demand is weak, and port and enterprise inventories are high. However, short - selling has low cost - effectiveness, and there may be short - term long opportunities after a decline [4][5] - For urea, after the holiday, the futures price dropped significantly. Supply pressure has increased, demand is average, and market sentiment is weak. It's recommended to consider long positions at low prices [7][8][9] - For rubber, the rubber price has stabilized, and it's recommended to set a stop - loss and enter short - term long positions on pullbacks. A partial position in the RU2601 - RU2511 hedging strategy is also recommended [12][16] - For PVC, the supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. The short - term valuation has dropped to a low level, and it's advisable to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium - term [18][20] - For pure benzene and styrene, the BZN spread has room for upward repair. With the approaching of the seasonal peak season, the price may stop falling [22][23] - For polyethylene, the cost has some support, and the price may oscillate upward in the long - term [25][26] - For polypropylene, there is supply pressure, and the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction [28][29] - For PX, the load remains high, and there is a lack of driving force. It's recommended to wait and see in the short - term [29][30] - For PTA, the supply has high unexpected maintenance, and the demand is expected to remain high. It's recommended to wait and see in the short - term [30][31] - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, and it's expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. It's recommended to wait and see in the short - term [32][33] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 9.50 yuan/barrel, a 1.98% decline, at 471.00 yuan/barrel. US EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.72 million barrels to 420.26 million barrels, a 0.89% increase; SPR increased by 0.29 million barrels to 406.99 million barrels, a 0.07% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 1.60 million barrels to 219.09 million barrels, a 0.73% decrease; diesel inventories decreased by 2.02 million barrels to 121.56 million barrels, a 1.63% decrease; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.54 million barrels to 21.17 million barrels, a 2.62% increase; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.07 million barrels to 44.27 million barrels, a 0.16% decrease [1] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a low - buy and high - sell range strategy, but wait and see in the short - term [2] Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang dropped 29 yuan, in Inner Mongolia dropped 12 yuan, in southern Shandong dropped 10 yuan. The 01 contract on the futures market dropped 38 yuan, closing at 2290 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 77. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 22, at - 56 [4] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply is high, demand is weak, and inventories are high. Short - selling has low cost - effectiveness, and consider short - term long positions after a decline [5] Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong dropped 40 yuan, in Henan dropped 20 yuan. The 01 contract on the futures market dropped 61 yuan, closing at 1609 yuan, with a basis of - 49. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 21, at - 68 [7] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply pressure has increased, demand is average, and market sentiment is weak. Consider long positions at low prices [8][9] Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price has stabilized. The futures price of natural rubber has different views from bulls and bears. Tire开工率 decreased during the National Day holiday. As of October 9, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong was 46.38%, 6.08 percentage points lower than last week and 3.30 percentage points lower than the same period last year; the operating load of semi - steel tires was 50.87%, 9.10 percentage points lower than last week and 23.72 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Semi - steel tire exports have slowed down. As of September 21, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 111.2 tons, a 1% decrease month - on - month; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 66.7 tons, unchanged; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 44.6 tons, a 0.3% decrease month - on - month. As of September 28, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 44.93 (- 0.44) tons [12][13][14] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Set a stop - loss and enter short - term long positions on pullbacks. Partially build a position in the RU2601 - RU2511 hedging strategy [16] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract dropped 70 yuan, closing at 4769 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4640 (- 60) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 129 (+ 10) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 323 (- 3) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai decreased to 2400 (- 150) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 730 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of ethylene was 810 (0) US dollars/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 81.4%, a 2.5% increase; among them, the calcium carbide method was 82.1%, a 2.8% increase; the ethylene method was 79.8%, a 1.6% increase. The overall downstream operating rate was 47.8%, a 1.5% decrease. Factory inventory was 31.8 tons (+ 1.2), and social inventory was 98.2 tons (+ 1) [18] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. Consider short - selling on rallies in the medium - term [20] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene in East China remained unchanged at 5795 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene dropped 125 yuan/ton to 6800 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the active contract dropped 17 yuan/ton to 6818 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 18 yuan/ton, a weakening of 108 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 126.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.5 yuan/ton; the profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 564.05 yuan/ton, unchanged; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 73.2%, a 0.20% decrease; the inventory at Jiangsu ports increased by 0.44 tons to 20.19 tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 45.44%, a 0.46% increase; the operating rate of PS was 62.50%, a 0.60% increase, the operating rate of EPS was 61.50%, a 0.48% increase, and the operating rate of ABS was 71.00%, a 1.00% increase [22] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The BZN spread has room for upward repair. With the approaching of the seasonal peak season, the price may stop falling [23] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract dropped 76 yuan/ton to 7077 yuan/ton, and the spot price dropped 75 yuan/ton to 7100 yuan/ton, with a basis of 23 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 1 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 83.6%, a 2.80% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory decreased by 7.56 tons to 38.27 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.43 tons to 4.67 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 45%, a 0.87% increase. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 29 yuan/ton, a widening of 10 yuan/ton [25] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost has some support, and the price may oscillate upward in the long - term [26] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract dropped 107 yuan/ton to 6745 yuan/ton, and the spot price dropped 70 yuan/ton to 6725 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 20 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 37 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 77.29%, a 0.05% decrease. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.03 tons to 52.03 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 0.11 tons to 18.72 tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.47 tons to 6.65 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 52%, a 0.15% increase. The LL - PP spread was 332 yuan/ton, a widening of 31 yuan/ton [28] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply pressure is high, and the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction [29] PX - **Market Information**: The PX11 contract increased by 16 yuan, closing at 6586 yuan. The PX CFR increased by 5 US dollars, closing at 809 US dollars. After conversion according to the central parity of the RMB, the basis was 44 yuan (- 12), and the 11 - 1 spread was 24 yuan (+ 12). In terms of PX load, the load in China was 86.4%, a 0.3% decrease; the Asian load was 78%, a 0.2% decrease. Tianjin Petrochemical was restarting, overseas plants in Malaysia and South Korea's Hanwha were restarting, and a 26 - ton plant of Japan's Eneos was under maintenance. The PTA load was 74.4%, a 2.7% decrease. In September, South Korea's PX exports to China were 37.9 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3 tons. The inventory at the end of August was 391.8 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.9 tons. In terms of valuation cost, PXN was 217 US dollars (+ 7), and the naphtha crack spread was 107 US dollars (- 11) [29] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PX load remains high, and there is a lack of driving force. Wait and see in the short - term [30] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract dropped 10 yuan, closing at 4584 yuan. The spot price in East China dropped 35 yuan, closing at 4500 yuan, with a basis of - 63 (0), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 48 (- 8). The PTA load was 74.4%, a 2.7% decrease. The downstream load was 91.7%, a 0.2% increase. Terminal draw - texturing load remained flat at 81%, and the weaving machine load decreased by 1% to 69%. In terms of inventory, on September 26, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 210.7 tons, a 1.1 - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the spot processing fee of PTA decreased by 38 yuan to 151 yuan, and the processing fee on the futures market decreased by 13 yuan to 279 yuan [30] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply has high unexpected maintenance, and the demand is expected to remain high. Wait and see in the short - term [31] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract dropped 49 yuan, closing at 4158 yuan. The spot price in East China dropped 51 yuan, closing at 4224 yuan, with a basis of 70 yuan (+ 2), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 77 yuan (- 2). The supply - side ethylene glycol load was 75.1%, a 1.6% increase; among them, the syngas method was 78.8%, a 4.5% increase; the ethylene - based load remained flat at 72.9%. The syngas - based plants such as Tianye were restarted, and Shenhua Yulin increased its load; in the petrochemical sector, Satellite Petrochemical was restarted, Yulong Petrochemical had a short - term shutdown, and Sanjiang increased its load. The downstream load was 91.7%, a 0.2% increase. The terminal draw - texturing load remained flat at 81%, and the weaving machine load decreased by 1% to 69%. The import arrival forecast was 23.4 tons, and the average daily departure from East China ports during the National Day was 0.6 tons. The port inventory was 50.7 tons, a 9.8 - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the profit of naphtha - based production was - 723 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 639 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 560 yuan. The cost of ethylene remained flat at 810 US dollars, and the price of raw coal fines at Yulin pithead remained flat at 620 yuan [32] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is high, and it's expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. Wait and see in the short - term [33]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Methanol - The current market's core trading logic revolves around "high inventory + high imports." Port arrivals remain high, leading to significant inventory accumulation. Combined with a weakening trading atmosphere, prices are showing a downward trend. - Domestic supply is at a relatively high level year-on-year. Although there has been an increase in unplanned maintenance of some devices recently, there are expectations for some devices to resume production in early October. However, the inventory situation in the inland area is relatively healthy, providing some support for prices. - On the demand side, affected by the off - season of traditional downstream industries, overall demand is weak. In terms of valuation, upstream profits are at a neutral level, MTO profits have strengthened, and traditional downstream profits have slightly improved, resulting in an overall neutral valuation. - The current futures market is in a state of contention: on one hand, there is the real - world pressure of high inventory and weak basis; on the other hand, there is the expected support of overseas gas restrictions in the distant future. Attention should be paid to the emergence of an inventory inflection point [1]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - During the holiday, crude oil and naphtha prices both declined. Fundamentally, there are expectations for the resumption of production of some maintenance devices and the commissioning of new production capacity for pure benzene in the near future. Coupled with the expected increase in imports in the fourth quarter, domestic pure benzene supply is expected to remain at a relatively high level. - In terms of demand, most downstream pure benzene products are currently operating at a loss, and the secondary - downstream inventory of some products is high. There has been an increase in unplanned production cuts in some downstream industries, and there is significant uncertainty in demand growth, providing limited support. Overall, the supply - demand outlook for pure benzene remains loose, and the price driving force is weak. - For styrene, during the holiday, crude oil, naphtha, and styrene spot prices all declined. There are expectations for the commissioning of new devices and the resumption of production of previously shut - down devices after the holiday, so supply is expected to increase. Although there are still some devices planning to shut down, it is difficult to fully offset the pressure from new and resumed production. - On the demand side, there is rigid demand support during the downstream seasonal peak season, but the profits of some downstream industries are under pressure, and finished - product inventory remains high, so demand - side support may be limited. The supply - demand outlook for styrene is also loose, with high port inventory and weak cost - side support. After the holiday, styrene prices are expected to remain under pressure [3]. Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP) - PE maintenance has reached a peak, and the operating rate is gradually recovering. Inventory in the upstream and mid - stream has decreased this week. Future attention should be paid to the supply rhythm and import offers. - Before the holiday, the CP settlement price decreased, and PDH device profits were restored. Future attention should be paid to the resumption of PP devices. - On the demand side, there are no bright spots. After the holiday, there is significant inventory pressure. Coupled with the launch of new production capacity, there is a large pressure for inventory accumulation in the 01 contract, which limits the upside potential [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, most mid - and downstream enterprises were on holiday during the festival, and there was no obvious fluctuation in the spot market. Before the holiday, the futures market continued to weaken. After the National Day, as non - aluminum inventory is digested and decreases, there may be some purchasing willingness due to low prices. - The downstream inventory of the main alumina producers is high, and the willingness to replenish inventory is also low. The delivery volume of large Shandong manufacturers was high before the holiday, and there is an expectation of a downward adjustment in future purchase prices. Alumina production capacity is at a high level, and there is an over - supply problem. It is expected that production cuts may not occur until January. Therefore, there is still some support for short - term caustic soda demand. - From the perspective of the commissioning schedule, there will be a large number of alumina commissionings in the first quarter of next year. Therefore, there may be concentrated inventory replenishment in the fourth quarter of this year, which may tighten the spot liquidity. It is expected that there is limited downside space for caustic soda in the future, and attention should be paid to the downstream inventory replenishment rhythm. - For PVC, most mid - and downstream enterprises were on holiday during the festival, and spot trading was light. Before the holiday, the PVC futures market weakened and fluctuated. The supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is still difficult to resolve, and both futures and spot prices are weakening. - On the supply side, production remains at a high level, and the over - supply situation is prominent. On the demand side, there has been no obvious performance during the peak season, and the demand for profiles has continued to shrink, showing obvious characteristics of a non - peak season. - Overall, the willingness of upstream producers to hold inventory has decreased. However, exports have alleviated some of the over - supply pressure. The cost of raw material calcium carbide is on an upward trend, and ethylene prices are stable, providing bottom - level support for costs. After the holiday, attention should be paid to cost support. It is expected that there is limited downside space for PVC during the peak season, and attention should be paid to downstream demand performance [7]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, during the holiday, international oil prices fluctuated within a range. The main trading logic was that OPEC + announced only a slight increase in production in January, which was lower than market expectations, temporarily alleviating supply pressure. Currently, the domestic PX operating rate remains high. - On the demand side, due to continuously low PTA processing fees, the commissioning of new PTA devices has been delayed, and there are maintenance expectations for multiple PTA devices. The supply - demand outlook for PX in the fourth quarter is weak, and there is an expectation of PXN compression. The overall trend during the National Day holiday was weak. It is expected that PX will continue to fluctuate weakly after the holiday. - For PTA, due to continuously low processing fees, the commissioning of new PTA devices has been postponed, and there are maintenance expectations for multiple PTA devices. Some devices have reduced or stopped production due to the impact of typhoons, so PTA supply is expected to contract. - Coupled with the pre - holiday downstream inventory replenishment demand, the PTA basis has been slightly repaired, but the expected upward space is limited. The overall trend during the National Day holiday was weak. It is expected that the driving force for PTA after the holiday will be limited, and it will continue to fluctuate weakly. - For ethylene glycol, during the holiday, there were many foreign - owned vessel arrivals. It is expected that port inventory will increase significantly after the holiday. In addition, the restart of the Satellite Petrochemical device and the commissioning of the new Yulong Petrochemical device in October will keep domestic supply at a high level, and the supply - demand situation will gradually weaken. Therefore, it is expected that there will be upward pressure on ethylene glycol after the holiday. - For short - fiber, the supply - demand pattern is weak. Currently, short - fiber supply remains at a high level. On the demand side, the market replenished inventory before the holiday, and the inventory of directly - spun polyester short - fiber has been continuously decreasing. It is expected that short - fiber will be relatively more supported than raw materials in the short term, but the driving force is limited, and its rhythm will mainly follow the raw materials. - For bottle - grade polyester chips, there is no news of further production cuts in October. The fourth quarter is the traditional off - season for bottle - grade polyester chips. Considering the gradual cooling of the weather in October, the demand for soft drinks and catering will decline slightly, and the demand side provides insufficient support. Therefore, bottle - grade polyester chips are likely to enter a seasonal inventory - reduction channel, and PR will mainly follow the cost side, with upward pressure on processing fees [8]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Methanol Price and Spread - MA2601 closed at 2328 on September 30, down 31.00 or 1.31% from the previous day; MA2605 closed at 2362, down 26.00 or 1.09%. - The MA15 spread was - 34, down 5.00 or 17.24%; the Taicang basis was - 125, up 13.50 or - 9.78%. - The spot price of Inner Mongolia's northern line remained unchanged at 2090 yuan/ton; the spot price of Luoyang, Henan remained unchanged at 2250 yuan/ton; the spot price of Taicang Port was 2238 yuan/ton, down 12.50 or - 0.56%. - The regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's northern line was 148, down 12.50 or - 7.81%; the regional spread between Taicang and Luoyang was - 13, down 12.50 [1]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory was 31.994%, down 2.05 or - 6.03% from the previous value; methanol port inventory was 149.2 tons, down 6.56 or - 4.21%; methanol social inventory was 181.2%, down 8.61 or - 4.54% [1]. Operating Rate - The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate was 74.27%, up 1.61 or 2.22%; the operating rate of a certain unspecified enterprise was 65.0%, down 3.85 or - 5.59%. - The production - sales rate of northwest enterprises was 127%, up 11.17 or 9.60%; the operating rate of downstream externally - purchased MTO devices was 82.46%, up 7.38 or 9.83%. - The operating rate of downstream formaldehyde was 32.7%, down 0.13 or - 0.40%; the operating rate of downstream acetic acid was 81.4%, down 0.97 or - 1.18%; the operating rate of downstream MTBE was 65.9%, up 2.12 or 3.32% [1]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Upstream Price and Spread - Brent crude oil (November) was $66.03 per barrel on September 30, down $1.94 or 2.9% from the previous day; WTI crude oil (October) was $63.45 per barrel, down $1.7 or 1.7%. - CFR Japan naphtha was $592 per ton, down $12 or 2.5%; CFR Northeast Asia ethylene was $810 per ton, down $2 or 0.6%. - The pure benzene - naphtha spread was 123, up 7 or 6.3%; the ethylene - naphtha spread was 208, up 10 or 4.9%. - The pure benzene (Sinopec East China listed price) was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the pure benzene East China spot price was 5770 yuan/ton, down 1.5% [3]. Styrene - Related Price and Spread - The styrene East China spot price was 6830 yuan/ton on September 30, down 80 or 1.2%; EB futures 2510 was 6734 yuan/ton, down 2.1%; EB futures 2511 was 6932 yuan/ton, down 97 or 1.4%. - The EB basis (10) was 96, up 200.0%; the EB10 - EB11 spread was - 101, down 87.0% [3]. Downstream Cash Flow - The phenol cash flow was - 353 yuan/ton on September 30, up 13.6%; the caprolactam cash flow (single product) was - 1920 yuan/ton, up 4.5%; the aniline cash flow was 630 yuan/ton, up 13.9%; the EPS cash flow was - 130 yuan/ton, up 18.8%; the PS cash flow was 220 yuan/ton, up 57.1%; the ABS cash flow was 140 yuan/ton, up 121.9% [3]. Inventory and Operating Rate - The pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory was 10.60 tons on September 30, down 0.10 or - 0.9%; the styrene Jiangsu port inventory was 19.75 tons, up 1.10 or 5.9%. - The Asian pure benzene operating rate was 79.0%, unchanged; the domestic pure benzene operating rate was 79.3%, up 0.9% or 1.2%; the domestic hydro - benzene operating rate was 64.0%, up 6.8%; the styrene operating rate was 73.2%, down 0.2% [3]. Polyolefins Price and Spread - The L2601 closing price was 7153 on September 30, down 28 or 0.39%; the L2509 closing price was 7220, down 19 or 0.26%. - The PP2601 closing price was 6852, down 51 or 0.74%; the PP2509 closing price was 6880, down 34 or 0.49%. - The L2509 - 2601 spread was 67, up 9 or 15.52%; the PP2509 - 2601 spread was 28, up 17 or 154.55% [5]. Inventory and Operating Rate - The PE enterprise inventory was 38.3 tons on September 30, down 7.56 or - 16.50%; the PE social inventory was 52.5 tons, down 1.03 or - 1.93%. - The PP enterprise inventory was 52.0 tons, down 3.03 or - 5.50%; the PP trader inventory was 18.7 tons, down 0.11 or - 0.58%. - The PE device operating rate was 81.8%, up 1.48 or 1.85%; the PE downstream weighted operating rate was 44.1%, up 1.21 or 2.82%. - The PP device operating rate was 75.5%, up 0.63 or 0.8%; the PP powder operating rate was 35.5%, up 1.46 or 4.3%; the downstream weighted operating rate was 51.9%, up 0.40 or 0.8% [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda Spot and Futures Price - The Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted - to - 100% price was 2500.0 yuan/ton on September 30, unchanged; the Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda converted - to - 100% price was 2600.0 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The East China calcium carbide - based PVC market price was 4700.0 yuan/ton, down 30.0 or - 0.6%; the East China ethylene - based PVC market price was 5000.0 yuan/ton, unchanged [7]. Overseas Quotation and Export Profit - The FOB East China port price of caustic soda was $400.0 per ton on September 25, unchanged; the export profit was 164.7 yuan/ton, down 58.7 or - 26.3%. - The CFR Southeast Asia price of PVC was $650.0 per ton on September 25, unchanged; the CFR India price was $730.0 per ton, unchanged; the FOB Tianjin Port calcium carbide - based PVC price was $605.0 per ton, up 5.0 or 0.8%; the export profit was 50.2 yuan/ton, up 72.6 or 323.8% [7]. Supply and Demand - The caustic soda industry operating rate was 86.8% on September 26, up 1.4 or 1.6%; the Shandong sample caustic soda operating rate was 85.6%, up 0.5 or 0.6%. - The PVC total operating rate was 76.1%, up 0.7 or 0.9%; the profit of externally - purchased calcium carbide - based PVC was - 896.0 yuan/ton, down 90.0 or - 11.2%; the northwest integrated profit was 43.3 yuan/ton, down 96.0 or - 68.9%. - The alumina industry operating rate was 83.7% on September 19, unchanged; the rubber staple fiber industry operating rate was 89.8%, up 0.3 or 0.3%; the printing and dyeing industry operating rate was 66.2%, up 0.4 or 0.6%. - The Longzhong sample pipe material operating rate was 40.4% on September 26, up 1.3 or 3.3%; the Longzhong sample profile operating rate was 38.9%, down 0.5 or - 1.3%; the Long

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - OPEC shows a hesitant attitude with a slightly stronger willingness to support prices than to expand market share, and the slight increase plan will continue to suppress the upside space of oil prices. Crude oil is expected to remain volatile in the short term [1]. - The fundamentals of methanol have marginally improved, and the downside space is expected to be relatively limited. It is recommended to focus on short - long opportunities on dips [3]. - Urea is currently in a situation of low valuation and weak drivers. With no effective positive factors in reality, it is suggested to focus on going long on dips at low prices [5]. - For rubber, the medium - term view is bullish, but it has broken down in the short term. It is recommended to set stop - losses and enter short - long positions opportunistically, and to partially re - establish the hedge position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 [12]. - The fundamentals of PVC are poor, with strong domestic supply and weak demand, and the export outlook is weak. In the short term, the valuation has declined to a low level, and it is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities on rallies in the medium term [14]. - The spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene are falling, and the basis is weakening. The BZN spread has a large upward repair space, and the price of styrene may stop falling when the downstream starts to rise and the port inventory is depleted [17]. - The price of polyethylene may oscillate upward in the long term as the long - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to the Korean ethylene clearance policy. In the short term, it may gap down at the opening [20]. - For polypropylene, there is a large supply pressure, and the downstream start - up rate rebounds seasonally at a low level. There is no prominent short - term contradiction, and the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price [23]. - For PX, the current load is high, and the expected inventory accumulation period continues. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [26]. - For PTA, the supply - side unexpected maintenance volume is still high, and the inventory depletion pattern continues. However, the processing fee space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [27]. - For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply is high, and the port inventory is expected to be low in the short term but will turn to inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short on rallies under the weak outlook, but beware of the risk of the weak expectation not being realized [29]. Summary by Industry Crude Oil - **Market Information**: As of October 8, 2025, the WTI crude oil main contract was quoted at $62.33/barrel, and the Brent crude oil main contract was quoted at $65.89/barrel. The US API data showed that the Cushing inventory decreased by 1.15 million barrels, and the overall inventory situation was still healthy. The OPEC meeting ended on October 5, with a final decision of a "principled low - speed production increase" of 137,000 barrels per day [1]. - **Strategy**: OPEC's hesitant attitude will suppress the upside space of oil prices, and crude oil is expected to remain volatile in the short term [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: During the holiday, overseas crude oil first fell and then rose, with a slight overall decline. Most other commodities rose more than they fell. Before the holiday, the price in Taicang fell by 11 yuan, the price in Inner Mongolia rose by 5 yuan, and the price in southern Shandong remained flat. The 01 contract of the futures price fell by 31 yuan to 2328 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 86 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 5 to - 34 [3]. - **Strategy**: The supply - side start - up has declined, and the enterprise profit is low. The domestic supply is expected to increase marginally. The demand - side port olefin plants have restarted and increased their loads, and the traditional demand has generally seen an increase in start - up, but the profit is still low. The overall demand has marginally improved. The inventory has decreased at a high level in ports and at a low level year - on - year in inland enterprises. It is recommended to focus on short - long opportunities on dips [3]. Urea - **Market Information**: During the holiday, the ex - factory price in Shandong remained stable, the ex - factory price in Henan fell by 20 yuan, and the market price generally continued the weak trend. Before the holiday, the 01 contract of the futures price rose by 7 yuan to 1670 yuan, with a basis of - 70 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread changed by + 4 to - 47 [5]. - **Strategy**: The futures price has stabilized at a low level. The domestic supply has returned, the start - up has increased significantly, and the enterprise profit is still low, with increased supply pressure. The demand for compound fertilizers has seen more shutdowns, and the agricultural demand is in the off - season, with general demand and weak market sentiment. The enterprise inventory continues to increase. It is recommended to focus on going long on dips at low prices [5]. Rubber - **Market Information**: During the holiday, commodities were generally positive. Japanese rubber and Singapore rubber rose slightly. In Thailand's spot market, the prices were mixed. The total inventory of natural rubber in China decreased marginally. The start - up load of all - steel tires in Shandong increased slightly, while that of semi - steel tires decreased slightly. The export orders of semi - steel tires slowed down, and the domestic sales market demand was weak [8][9][10]. - **Strategy**: The medium - term view is bullish, but it has broken down in the short term. It is recommended to set stop - losses and enter short - long positions opportunistically, and to partially re - establish the hedge position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract fell by 57 yuan to 4839 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4700 (- 30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 139 (+ 27) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 320 (- 10) yuan/ton. The cost side remained stable, the overall start - up rate of PVC increased, the downstream start - up rate decreased, and the factory and social inventories increased [12]. - **Strategy**: The enterprise comprehensive profit has continued to decline, the valuation pressure has further decreased, the maintenance volume is small, the production is at a historical high, and new devices will be tested in the short term. The domestic downstream start - up has declined, the domestic demand is weak, and the export outlook is poor. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities on rallies in the medium term [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side price of pure benzene in East China remained unchanged at 5885 yuan/ton, the spot price of styrene fell by 50 yuan to 6850 yuan/ton, the closing price of the active contract of styrene fell by 7 yuan to 6932 yuan/ton, the basis weakened, the BZN spread decreased, the non - integrated device profit of EB increased, and the spread between EB contracts decreased. The upstream start - up rate decreased, the port inventory in Jiangsu increased, and the demand - side start - up rate of three S decreased overall, except for ABS [16]. - **Strategy**: The spot and futures prices are falling, and the basis is weakening. The BZN spread has a large upward repair space. The cost - side supply is still abundant, the supply - side start - up of styrene continues to rise, the port inventory has increased significantly, and the demand - side start - up rate has decreased. The price of styrene may stop falling when the downstream starts to rise and the port inventory is depleted [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract of polyethylene rose by 18 yuan to 7181 yuan/ton, the spot price remained unchanged at 7160 yuan/ton, the basis weakened by 18 yuan to - 17 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up decreased, the production enterprise and trader inventories decreased, the downstream average start - up rate increased slightly, and the LL1 - 5 spread expanded [19]. - **Strategy**: The price may gap down at the opening due to the large decline in crude oil prices during the holiday. The cost side still has support, the spot price has fallen, the PE valuation has limited downward space, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price. The supply is limited, the inventory has decreased at a high level, the seasonal peak season may come, and the price may oscillate upward in the long term [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract of polypropylene rose by 3 yuan to 6903 yuan/ton, the spot price remained unchanged at 6795 yuan/ton, the basis weakened by 3 yuan to - 102 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up increased, the production enterprise and trader inventories decreased, the port inventory increased, the downstream average start - up rate increased, and the LL - PP spread expanded [22]. - **Strategy**: There is a large supply pressure, the downstream start - up rate rebounds seasonally at a low level. There is no prominent short - term contradiction, and the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX11 contract fell by 100 yuan to 6570 yuan, the PX CFR rose by 3 dollars to 804 dollars, the basis increased by 32 yuan to 56 yuan, the 11 - 1 spread decreased by 16 yuan to 12 yuan. The PX load in China and Asia decreased slightly. Some domestic and overseas devices had maintenance or restart delays. The PTA load increased slightly, and the import volume of Korean PX to China decreased in mid - and early - September. The inventory increased in late August, and the PXN and naphtha crack spread increased [25]. - **Strategy**: The current PX load is high, the downstream PTA has many unexpected maintenance in the short term, the overall load center is low, and the expected inventory accumulation period continues. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract fell by 58 yuan to 4594 yuan, the East China spot price fell by 55 yuan to 4535 yuan, the basis decreased by 8 yuan to - 63 yuan, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 6 yuan to - 40 yuan. The PTA load increased slightly, some devices had maintenance or restart, the downstream load increased, the terminal load increased, the social inventory increased slightly, and the spot and futures processing fees decreased [26]. - **Strategy**: The supply - side unexpected maintenance volume is still high, and the inventory depletion pattern continues. However, the processing fee space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract fell by 17 yuan to 4207 yuan, the East China spot price fell by 20 yuan to 4275 yuan, the basis increased by 1 yuan to 68 yuan, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 12 yuan to - 75 yuan. The supply - side load increased slightly, some domestic and overseas devices had maintenance, restart, or load adjustment. The downstream load increased, the import arrival forecast was 234,000 tons, the East China departure was 13,600 tons on September 29, the port inventory decreased by 58,000 tons to 409,000 tons. The naphtha - based and domestic ethylene - based profits were negative, and the coal - based profit was positive. The cost side remained stable [28]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is high, and the port inventory is expected to be low in the short term but will turn to inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short on rallies under the weak outlook, but beware of the risk of the weak expectation not being realized [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains the view of overweighting crude oil as geopolitical premiums have dissipated, OPEC's production increase is minimal, and the current oil price is relatively undervalued with good fundamentals. However, it's not advisable to chase the price at present, and if geopolitical premiums reappear, the oil price will have more upside potential [3]. - For methanol, the fundamentals are mixed with high inventory suppressing the price. It's recommended to wait and see as the price is greatly affected by overall commodity sentiment [6]. - Regarding urea, although the valuation is relatively low, there is a lack of driving factors in reality. It's suggested to wait and see or consider going long at low prices [9]. - For rubber, the medium - term view is bullish, but due to short - term technical breakdown, it's recommended to wait and see [14]. - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and exports are expected to decline. It's advisable to consider shorting on rallies in the medium term [17]. - For styrene, the long - term BZN is expected to recover, and it's recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [20]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to fluctuate upwards in the long term as the long - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [23]. - For polypropylene, there is high inventory pressure in the context of weak supply and demand, and the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market [26]. - For PX, the current load is high, and there is a lack of driving factors with PXN under pressure. It's recommended to wait and see [30]. - For PTA, the supply has unexpected maintenance, and the demand is affected by the terminal. It's recommended to wait and see [33]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry is expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, and it's recommended to short on rallies with caution [35]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 9.30 yuan/barrel, a 1.87% decline, at 487.00 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also declined, with high - sulfur fuel oil down 11.00 yuan/ton (0.39%) to 2796.00 yuan/ton and low - sulfur fuel oil down 36.00 yuan/ton (1.05%) to 3392.00 yuan/ton. European ARA weekly data showed that overall refined oil inventories decreased by 1.94 million barrels to 45.39 million barrels, a 4.10% decline [1][2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil, but it's not advisable to chase the price at present. If geopolitical premiums reappear, the oil price will have more upside potential [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang rose 6 yuan/ton, while that in Inner Mongolia fell 5 yuan/ton. The 01 - contract on the futures market dropped 18 yuan/ton to 2346 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 108. The 1 - 5 spread rose 16 to - 20 [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - side start - up rate declined, and the demand - side improved marginally. The inventory in ports continued to rise, but the inventory pressure in the inland area was relatively small. It's recommended to wait and see as the fundamentals are mixed [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong remained stable, while that in Henan fell 10 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market dropped 9 yuan/ton to 1661 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 31. The 1 - 5 spread fell 6 to - 61 [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure increased, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased again. Although the valuation is relatively low, there is a lack of driving factors. It's suggested to wait and see or consider going long at low prices [9]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices declined with a large drop after breaking through technical support. The expected rainfall in Thailand in the next 7 days is not significant, reducing supply - side bullish factors. The long - short views on natural rubber are divided. As of September 18, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.96%, up 0.09 percentage points from last week and 7.57 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires was 74.58%, up 0.28 percentage points from last week but down 2.17 percentage points from the same period last year. As of September 14, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 123.5 tons, down 2.2 million tons (1.8%) from the previous period [11][12][13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The medium - term view is bullish, but due to short - term technical breakdown, it's recommended to wait and see [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract rose 27 yuan to 4950 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4780 (+10) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 170 (-27) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 303 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 77%, down 3% from the previous period. The demand - side downstream operating rate was 49.2%, up 1.7% from the previous period. Factory inventory was 30.6 million tons (-0.4), and social inventory was 95.4 million tons (+1.9) [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and exports are expected to decline. It's advisable to consider shorting on rallies in the medium term [17]. Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side East China pure benzene price was 5903 yuan/ton, down 7.5 yuan/ton. The styrene spot price was 7100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The active contract closing price was 6992 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton. The basis was 108 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 73.4%, down 1.60%. The inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 1.75 million tons to 15.90 million tons. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 45.44%, up 0.46% [18][19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The long - term BZN is expected to recover, and it's recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 7169 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton. The spot price was 7190 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton. The basis was 21 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 82.28%, up 0.71%. The production enterprise inventory increased by 0.33 million tons to 49.03 million tons, and the trader inventory increased by 0.30 million tons to 6.06 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 42.92%, up 0.75% [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price is expected to fluctuate upwards in the long term as the long - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 6914 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6875 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 39 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate remained unchanged at 75.43%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 2.45 million tons to 55.06 million tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.43 million tons to 18.83 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.29 million tons to 6.18 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 51.45%, up 0.59% [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There is high inventory pressure in the context of weak supply and demand, and the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX11 contract fell 90 yuan to 6594 yuan. PX CFR fell 11 dollars to 816 dollars. The basis was 96 yuan (+4), and the 11 - 1 spread was 0 yuan (-18). The PX load in China was 86.3%, down 1.5% from the previous period, and the Asian load was 78.2%, down 0.8% from the previous period. In September, South Korea's PX exports to China decreased by 0.6 million tons year - on - year [28][29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current load is high, and there is a lack of driving factors with PXN under pressure. It's recommended to wait and see [30]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract fell 62 yuan to 4604 yuan. The East China spot price fell 75 yuan to 4555 yuan. The basis was - 82 yuan (-5), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 44 yuan (-6). The PTA load was 75.9%, down 0.9% from the previous period [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply has unexpected maintenance, and the demand is affected by the terminal. It's recommended to wait and see [33]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract fell 11 yuan to 4257 yuan. The East China spot price fell 11 yuan to 4351 yuan. The basis was 92 yuan (+9), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 60 yuan (+2). The supply - side operating rate was 73.8%, down 1.1% from the previous period. The downstream load was 91.4%, down 0.2% from the previous period. The port inventory increased by 0.6 million tons to 46.5 million tons [35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry is expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, and it's recommended to short on rallies with caution [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil as the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamental factors will support the price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, expect the fundamental situation to gradually improve, and suggest paying attention to long - position opportunities at low prices and the 1 - 5 positive spread [4] - For urea, with weak demand and limited export support, the price is expected to move within a range, and it is recommended to consider long positions at low prices [6] - For rubber, adopt a long - term bullish view, and stay on the sidelines in the short term as the short - term trend follows that of industrial products [11] - For PVC, given the situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, pay attention to short - position opportunities at high prices, but beware of short - term upward movements [13] - For pure benzene and styrene, expect the BZN spread to repair in the long term. When the inventory reaches the inflection point of destocking, the styrene price may rebound. It is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [16] - For polyethylene, expect the price to fluctuate upward in the long term, and the cost provides support [18] - For polypropylene, in a context of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, the price is affected by a large number of warehouse receipts, and there is no obvious short - term contradiction [19] - For PX, with high operating loads and expected inventory accumulation, there is currently no strong driving force, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term [22] - For PTA, the pattern of inventory reduction continues, but the processing fee is suppressed. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term [23] - For ethylene glycol, expect inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. Given the relatively high valuation, it is recommended to short at high prices, but beware of the risk of unfulfilled weak expectations [24] Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: The INE main crude oil futures closed up 5.80 yuan/barrel, a 1.18% increase, at 499.30 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 32.00 yuan/ton (1.14%) to 2831.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 63.00 yuan/ton (1.86%) to 3459.00 yuan/ton [1] - **Data**: The US EIA weekly data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 9.29 million barrels to 415.36 million barrels (a 2.19% decrease), the SPR increased by 0.50 million barrels to 405.73 million barrels (a 0.12% increase), gasoline inventories decreased by 2.35 million barrels to 217.65 million barrels (a 1.07% decrease), diesel inventories increased by 4.05 million barrels to 124.68 million barrels (a 3.35% increase), fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.41 million barrels to 20.80 million barrels (a 1.93% decrease), and aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.63 million barrels to 43.90 million barrels (a 1.46% increase) [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On September 17, the 01 contract rose 1 yuan/ton to 2376 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 94 [4] - **Fundamentals**: The high - inventory pattern at ports remains unchanged, and the market structure is still weak, but most of the negative factors have been priced in. Enterprise profits are good, overseas operating rates are high, and arrivals are increasing, resulting in sufficient supply. The profit of port MTO is relatively good year - on - year, traditional demand is weak but there are expectations of a peak season, and demand is expected to improve marginally. Port inventories have reached a new high under high supply, while inland enterprise inventories are lower year - on - year [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On September 17, the 01 contract fell 5 yuan/ton to 1681 yuan/ton, the spot price remained stable, and the basis was - 41 [6] - **Fundamentals**: Domestic enterprise inventories are slowly rising, and the overall inventory level is high. It is the off - season for domestic agricultural demand, and the operating rate of compound fertilizers has rebounded but is still in a seasonal decline. Overall, demand is weak, and export support is limited [6] Rubber - **Supply**: The forecasted rainfall in Thailand in the next 7 days is expected to decrease marginally, reducing the positive supply factors [8] - **Market Sentiment**: Bulls are optimistic about rubber due to seasonal expectations, limited rubber production in Southeast Asia (especially Thailand) due to weather and rubber forest conditions, and improved demand expectations in China. Bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, the seasonal off - season for demand, and the possibility that supply benefits may be lower than expected [9] - **Industry Conditions**: As of September 11, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.87%, up 6.17 percentage points from the previous week and 5.23 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.30%, up 5.23 percentage points from the previous week but down 4.53 percentage points from the same period last year. The export expectation has declined after the previous rush of export orders to Europe. As of September 7, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 125.8 tons, a 0.7 - ton (0.57%) decrease; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 79.3 tons, a 0.5% decrease; and the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 46.5 tons, a 0.7% decrease. As of September 14, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 45.8 (- 0.62) tons [10] - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was priced at 14950 (- 150) yuan, STR20 at 1860 (- 10) dollars, and STR20 mixed at 1855 (- 10) dollars. The price of butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 9250 (0) yuan, and the price of cis - polybutadiene in North China was 11500 (0) yuan [11] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 13 yuan to 4973 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4790 (0) yuan/ton, the basis was - 183 (- 13) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 303 (- 2) yuan/ton [13] - **Cost**: The price of calcium carbide in Wuhai increased by 50 yuan to 2550 yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade blue charcoal was 680 (0) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 850 (0) dollars/ton, and the price of caustic soda was 820 (0) yuan/ton [13] - **Fundamentals**: The overall operating rate of PVC was 79.9%, a 2.8% increase; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based production was 79.4%, a 2.7% increase; and the operating rate of ethylene - based production was 81.3%, a 3.2% increase. The overall downstream operating rate was 47.5%, a 4% increase. Factory inventory was 31 tons (- 0.6), and social inventory was 93.4 tons (+ 1.6). The comprehensive enterprise profit is at a high level this year, with high valuation pressure, few maintenance activities, and high production. Multiple new plants are expected to be put into operation in the short term. Although domestic downstream operating rates have improved, the export expectation has weakened after the determination of India's anti - dumping tax rate [13] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot prices rose, while futures prices fell, and the basis strengthened. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level compared to the same period, with significant upward adjustment potential [15] - **Cost and Supply**: The operating rate of pure benzene is moderately volatile, and the supply is still abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has decreased, but the operating rate of styrene production has been increasing. Styrene port inventories have been significantly reduced [15][16] - **Demand**: As the seasonal peak season approaches, the overall operating rate of the three S products has been declining [16] - **Fundamentals**: The price of pure benzene in East China was 5970 yuan/ton (no change), the spot price of styrene was 7200 yuan/ton (a 75 - yuan increase), the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7138 yuan/ton (a 20 - yuan decrease), the basis was 62 yuan/ton (a 95 - yuan increase), the BZN spread was 136.12 yuan/ton (a 5.62 - yuan increase), the profit of non - integrated styrene production was - 405.3 yuan/ton (a 30 - yuan decrease), the 1 - 2 spread of styrene was 69 yuan/ton (a 19 - yuan decrease), the upstream operating rate was 75% (a 4.70% decrease), the port inventory in Jiangsu was 17.65 tons (a 2.00 - ton decrease), the weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.73% (a 1.11% decrease), the operating rate of PS was 61.00% (a 1.10% increase), the operating rate of EPS was 52.52% (a 5.82% decrease), and the operating rate of ABS was 69.00% (a 1.80% decrease) [16] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose. The market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance at the end of the third quarter, and cost support remains [18] - **Fundamentals**: The spot price remained unchanged, and the valuation of PE has limited downward space, but the number of warehouse receipts at the same period in history is high, suppressing the futures price. There are only 40 tons of planned production capacity left, and the overall inventory is being reduced from a high level, providing support for the price. As the seasonal peak season may be approaching, the raw material inventory for agricultural films has started to build up, and the overall operating rate has stabilized at a low level [18] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose. There is still 145 tons of planned production capacity, resulting in high supply pressure. The downstream operating rate has rebounded from a seasonal low [19] - **Fundamentals**: In a context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no obvious short - term contradiction. The large number of warehouse receipts at the same period in history suppresses the futures price [19] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 10 yuan to 6772 yuan, the PX CFR price rose 2 dollars to 836 dollars, the basis was 71 yuan (+ 5) after conversion according to the RMB central parity rate, and the 11 - 1 spread was 32 yuan (- 10) [21] - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate in China was 87.8%, a 4.1% increase; the operating rate in Asia was 79%, a 2.5% increase. CNOOC Huizhou increased its production, Fuhua Group restarted, and an overseas 19 - ton plant of Japan's Eneos restarted [21] - **Imports and Inventories**: In early September, South Korea's PX exports to China were 10.6 tons, a 0.6 - ton decrease compared to the same period last year. The inventory at the end of July was 389.9 tons, a 24 - ton decrease from the previous month [21] - **Valuation and Cost**: The PXN was 229 dollars (+ 1), and the naphtha cracking spread was 103 dollars (- 11). Currently, the PX operating rate remains high, while the downstream PTA has experienced many unexpected maintenance activities in the short term, with a relatively low overall operating rate. The new plant commissioning is expected to be postponed, leading to continuous inventory accumulation of PX, and there is currently no strong driving force for the PXN to rise [21][22] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 24 yuan to 4712 yuan, the East China spot price rose 10 yuan to 4620 yuan, the basis was - 77 yuan (+ 3), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 36 yuan (+ 10) [23] - **Operating Rates**: The PTA operating rate was 76.8%, a 4.6% increase. Dushan Energy and Hengli Huizhou restarted. The downstream operating rate was 91.6%, a 0.3% increase, with little change in the plants. The operating rate of terminal texturing remained at 78%, and the operating rate of looms remained at 66% [23] - **Inventories**: On September 5, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 207 tons, a 5 - ton decrease [23] - **Valuation and Cost**: The spot processing fee of PTA remained unchanged at 131 yuan, and the futures processing fee increased by 11 yuan to 291 yuan. In the future, the unexpected maintenance volume on the supply side remains high, and the inventory reduction pattern continues. However, due to the weak long - term outlook, the processing fee is continuously suppressed. The inventory and profit pressure of polyester fibers on the demand side are low, and the operating rate is expected to remain high, but the terminal recovery speed is slow [23] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract rose 25 yuan to 4297 yuan, the East China spot price fell 12 yuan to 4373 yuan, the basis was 81 yuan (- 10), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 61 yuan (- 11) [24] - **Supply**: The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol was 74.9%, a 1.2% increase. The operating rate of syngas - based production was 76.7%, a 3.1% increase, and the operating rate of ethylene - based production remained unchanged. Some syngas - based plants had production stoppages and restarts, and overseas plants also had some changes in their operating status. The import arrival forecast was 9.4 tons, and the departure volume from East China ports on September 16 was 0.67 tons [24] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate was 91.6%, a 0.3% increase, with little change in the plants. The operating rate of terminal texturing remained at 78%, and the operating rate of looms remained at 66% [24] - **Inventories and Valuation**: The port inventory was 46.5 tons, a 0.6 - ton increase. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 613 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 784 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 812 yuan. The cost of ethylene increased to 850 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal powder increased to 570 yuan. Currently, the operating rates of domestic and overseas plants are high, and the domestic supply is large. Although the port arrival volume is expected to be low in the short term, the port inventory is expected to increase in the medium term due to concentrated imports, high domestic operating rates, and the commissioning of new plants. The valuation is currently relatively high year - on - year [24]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil as the current oil price is undervalued, and the fundamentals support the price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [3] - For methanol, expect the fundamentals to gradually improve, and suggest paying attention to long - position opportunities at low prices and 1 - 5 positive spread opportunities [5] - For urea, due to weak demand and limited export support, the price is expected to move in a range, and it is recommended to consider long positions at low prices [7] - For rubber, take a long - term bullish view, and a neutral short - term view, suggesting waiting and watching or quick in - and - out operations [11][12] - For PVC, with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, it is advisable to consider short - position opportunities at high prices, while being cautious about upward movements [12] - For pure benzene and styrene, expect the long - term BZN to repair, and suggest going long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [14] - For polyethylene, expect the price to oscillate upwards in the long term [17] - For polypropylene, with high inventory pressure and no prominent short - term contradictions, it is recommended to consider long positions at low prices [18] - For PX, with high load and limited inventory accumulation, the valuation has support, and it is suggested to wait and watch [21] - For PTA, although the de - stocking pattern continues, the processing fee is suppressed, and it is recommended to wait and watch [22] - For ethylene glycol, with high supply and expected inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, it is advisable to consider short - position opportunities at high prices [23] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 8.90 yuan/barrel, or 1.86%, to 488.10 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 66.00 yuan/ton, or 2.41%, to 2799.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 87.00 yuan/ton, or 2.65%, to 3375.00 yuan/ton [1] - **Data**: China's weekly crude oil data showed that crude oil arrival inventory increased by 3.83 million barrels to 213.37 million barrels, a 1.83% increase; gasoline commercial inventory increased by 1.67 million barrels to 90.76 million barrels, a 1.88% increase; diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.93 million barrels to 103.23 million barrels, a 0.91% increase; total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 2.60 million barrels to 193.99 million barrels, a 1.36% increase [2] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On September 15, the 01 contract rose 17 yuan/ton to 2396 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 101 [5] - **Fundamentals**: The high - inventory pattern at ports remains unchanged, and the market structure is weak, but most of the negative factors have been realized. Supply is sufficient, and demand is expected to improve marginally. The inventory at ports has reached a new high, while that of inland enterprises is relatively low. The fundamentals are expected to gradually improve [5] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On September 15, the 01 contract rose 20 yuan/ton to 1683 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 53 [7] - **Fundamentals**: Domestic enterprise inventory is slowly rising, and the overall inventory level is high. Domestic agricultural demand is in the off - season, and compound fertilizer production has increased but is still in the seasonal decline stage. Demand is weak, and export support is limited [7] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Industrial products generally rose, and NR and RU rebounded [9] - **Fundamentals**: The expected rainfall in Thailand in the next 7 days is decreasing, reducing the supply - side positive factors. There are different views among bulls and bears. Bulls focus on weather, seasonality, and demand expectations, while bears are concerned about macro uncertainties and weak demand [9][10] - **Operation Suggestion**: Take a long - term bullish view and a neutral short - term view, suggesting waiting and watching or quick in - and - out operations [11][12] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 45 yuan to 4921 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4740 (+60) yuan/ton, the basis was - 181 (+15) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 303 (0) yuan/ton [12] - **Fundamentals**: The cost of calcium carbide and ethylene has increased, and the overall PVC operating rate has risen. The downstream operating rate has also increased. However, the enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a high level, and the valuation pressure is large. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the export expectation is weak [12] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5920 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the spot price of styrene was 7100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7087 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan/ton; the basis was 13 yuan/ton, weakening by 117 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 134.5 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan/ton; the EB non - integrated plant profit was - 420.8 yuan/ton, up 30.25 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, narrowing by 19 yuan/ton [15] - **Fundamentals**: The BZN spread is at a low level and has room for upward repair. The supply of pure benzene is abundant, and the operating rate of styrene is rising. The port inventory of styrene is decreasing, and the demand for three S products is oscillating downward [14][15] - **Operation Suggestion**: Expect the long - term BZN to repair, and suggest going long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [14] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract was 7232 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7190 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was - 42 yuan/ton, weakening by 63 yuan/ton [17] - **Fundamentals**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost has support. The supply capacity is limited, and the inventory is decreasing. The demand for agricultural film raw materials has started to stockpile, and the overall operating rate has stabilized at a low level [17] - **Outlook**: The long - term contradiction has shifted, and the price is expected to oscillate upwards [17] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract was 6966 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6875 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was - 91 yuan/ton, weakening by 53 yuan/ton [18] - **Fundamentals**: The supply capacity is under pressure, and the downstream operating rate has rebounded seasonally. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there are no prominent short - term contradictions [18] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 40 yuan to 6752 yuan, the PX CFR rose 4 dollars to 836 dollars, the basis was 95 yuan (- 3), and the 11 - 1 spread was 46 yuan (0) [20] - **Fundamentals**: The PX load is at a high level, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected maintenance operations in the short term. The PTA new plant has been put into operation, and the PX inventory accumulation is limited. The polyester data are gradually improving, and the valuation has support at the bottom [20][21] - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and watch [21] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 24 yuan to 4672 yuan, the East China spot price rose 25 yuan to 4600 yuan, the basis was - 80 yuan (- 7), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 44 yuan (- 4) [22] - **Fundamentals**: The PTA load has increased, and the downstream load has also increased slightly. The social inventory has decreased. The supply - side unexpected maintenance volume is still high, and the de - stocking pattern continues. The demand - side polyester fiber inventory and profit pressure are low, but the terminal recovery is slow [22] - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and watch [22] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract rose 16 yuan to 4288 yuan, the East China spot price fell 8 yuan to 4378 yuan, the basis was 102 yuan (- 1), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 45 yuan (+2) [23] - **Fundamentals**: The supply - side load is at a high level, and the downstream load has increased slightly. The port inventory has increased. The cost of ethylene has risen. The domestic supply is high, and the inventory is expected to accumulate in the fourth quarter [23] - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider short - position opportunities at high prices, while being cautious about the non - realization of weak expectations [23]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The report maintains the view of overweighting crude oil from last week, believing that the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamentals will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - opens, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 2.80 yuan/barrel, or 0.58%, to 486.20 yuan/barrel [1] - **Inventory Data**: US EIA weekly data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.94 million barrels to 424.65 million barrels, a 0.94% increase; SPR increased by 0.51 million barrels to 405.22 million barrels, a 0.13% increase; gasoline inventories increased by 1.46 million barrels to 220.00 million barrels, a 0.67% increase; diesel inventories increased by 4.72 million barrels to 120.64 million barrels, a 4.07% increase; fuel oil inventories increased by 1.30 million barrels to 21.21 million barrels, a 6.51% increase; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.47 million barrels to 43.27 million barrels, a 1.11% increase [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On September 10, the 01 - contract rose 9 yuan/ton to 2407 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 112 [4] - **Analysis**: Domestic production has further increased, coal prices have slightly declined, and corporate profits are generally good. Overseas production has returned to a year - on - year high, and there is still import pressure. The port MTO load has slightly increased, and profits have continued to improve, but traditional demand is still weak. It is expected that the decline space is limited, and attention can be paid to long - position opportunities at low prices and 1 - 5 positive spreads [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On September 10, the 01 - contract fell 14 yuan/ton to 1669 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 9 [6] - **Analysis**: As the spot price weakens, corporate profits have further declined, and the production start - up rate has significantly decreased, reducing supply pressure. However, demand is weak, and port inventories are rising. It is expected that the price will move within a range, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities at low prices [6] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fluctuated weakly, following the trend of industrial products such as coking coal. Thai standard mixed rubber was priced at 15000 (0) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1845 (- 5) dollars, and STR20 mixed was at 1855 (+ 5) dollars [9][12] - **Analysis**: Bulls believe that rubber production in Southeast Asia, especially in Thailand, may be limited, the seasonality of rubber usually turns upward in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears believe that macro - expectations are uncertain, demand is in the off - season, and the positive impact of supply may be less than expected. It is recommended to take a long - term bullish view, but a neutral view in the short - term, either waiting and watching or making quick trades [10][12] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 10 yuan to 4857 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4650 (0) yuan/ton, the basis was - 207 (- 10) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 302 (+ 6) yuan/ton [14] - **Analysis**: The comprehensive corporate profit is at a high level this year, with high valuation pressure, low maintenance volume, and high production. Domestic demand is at a five - year low, and export expectations have weakened after the determination of India's anti - dumping tax rate. It is recommended to pay attention to short - position opportunities at high prices, but also beware of short - term upward movements [14] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price fell, while the futures price rose, and the basis weakened. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period, with large upward correction space [16] - **Analysis**: The cost - side pure benzene production is in a neutral and volatile state, and the supply is still abundant. The supply - side ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit has increased, and the production start - up rate of styrene has continued to rise. The port inventory has continued to decline significantly. In the long - term, the BZN spread may be repaired, and the styrene price may rebound after the inventory decline inflection point [16][17] Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract closed at 7226 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7220 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was - 6 yuan/ton, strengthening by 3 yuan/ton [19] - **Analysis**: There is only 400,000 tons of planned production capacity left, and the overall inventory is declining from a high level. The seasonal peak season may be coming, and the demand - side agricultural film raw material procurement has started. In the long - term, the price may fluctuate upward [19] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract closed at 6948 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6955 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was 7 yuan/ton, strengthening by 1 yuan/ton [20] - **Analysis**: There is still 1.45 million tons of planned production capacity, with high supply pressure. The downstream production start - up rate has rebounded seasonally from a low level. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction. It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices [20] Polyester PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 44 yuan to 6770 yuan, the PX CFR rose 2 dollars to 838 dollars, and the basis was 94 yuan (- 22) [22] - **Analysis**: The PX production load is at a high level, and although the downstream PTA has many unexpected maintenance in the short - term, the PX inventory accumulation is not large due to new PTA device production. The terminal and polyester data are gradually improving, and the valuation has limited downward space. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities following crude oil at low prices during the peak season [22][23] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 20 yuan to 4698 yuan, the East China spot price rose 20 yuan to 4625 yuan, and the basis was - 63 yuan (0) [24] - **Analysis**: The supply - side unexpected maintenance has increased, and the inventory accumulation pattern has turned into de - stocking, but the processing fee is suppressed. The demand - side polyester fiber inventory pressure is low, and the downstream and terminal production start - up rates have improved, but the terminal recovery speed is slow. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities following PX at low prices [24] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract fell 3 yuan to 4319 yuan, the East China spot price fell 15 yuan to 4439 yuan, and the basis was 117 yuan (- 15) [25] - **Analysis**: Overseas and domestic maintenance devices have gradually started, and the production start - up rate has reached a high level. The domestic supply is high. In the short - term, the port inventory is expected to be low due to less arrival volume, but it will turn into inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. The valuation is currently relatively high year - on - year, and there is downward pressure in the medium - term [25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamental situation will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have room for growth. It is a good opportunity for left - hand side layout [2]. - For methanol, the short - term oversupply situation remains unchanged, but the downside space is expected to be limited. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - For urea, the price is expected to move within a range at a low valuation. It is recommended to pay attention to going long at low prices [6]. - For rubber, it is advisable to maintain a bullish view in the medium - term. In the short - term, it is expected that the rubber price will be strong, and a bullish approach is recommended, buying on dips and exiting quickly [12]. - For PVC, given the situation of strong domestic supply, weak demand, and high valuation, and the weakening export expectation, it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [14]. - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to recover in the long - term. When the inventory starts to decline, the styrene price may rebound [18]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to fluctuate upwards in the long - term [20]. - For polypropylene, it is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices [21]. - For PX, the valuation has support at the bottom, and it is recommended to follow the crude oil and look for long - buying opportunities on dips after the peak season arrives [23][24]. - For PTA, it is recommended to follow PX and look for long - buying opportunities on dips after the peak - season downstream performance improves [25]. - For ethylene glycol, the mid - term valuation has a downward pressure [26]. 3. Summary by Commodity Energy - **Crude Oil**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 10.80 yuan/barrel, a 2.20% decline, at 481.00 yuan/barrel. Singapore's ESG weekly oil product data showed inventory increases in gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil products [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 68.00 yuan/ton, a 2.40% decline, at 2760.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 113.00 yuan/ton, a 3.21% decline, at 3412.00 yuan/ton [1]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: On September 4, the 01 contract fell 4 yuan/ton to 2378 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 8 yuan/ton with a basis of - 133. Domestic production has further increased, and coal prices have slightly declined. Overseas production has returned to a year - on - year high level, and the import pressure remains. The port MTO load has slightly increased, and the profit has continuously improved, but the traditional demand is still weak [4]. - **Urea**: On September 4, the 01 contract remained stable at 1714 yuan/ton, and the spot price was flat with a basis of - 14. The enterprise profit has further declined, the supply - side production has significantly decreased, and the demand is weak. The port inventory has continued to increase [6]. - **Rubber**: NR and RU fluctuated strongly. Due to heavy rain in Thailand in the next 2 - 10 days, the risk of floods has significantly increased, and the rubber price is likely to rise. As of September 5, 2025, the operating load of Shandong tire enterprises' all - steel tires was 58.70%, down 4.08 percentage points from last week and 0.22 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of domestic tire enterprises' semi - steel tires was 69.07%, down 5.5 percentage points from last week and 9.60 percentage points from the same period last year [9][11]. - **PVC**: The PVC01 contract rose 5 yuan to 4883 yuan. The cost side remained stable, the overall PVC operating rate was 76%, a 1.6% decline. The demand - side downstream operating rate was 42.6%, a 0.1% decline. The factory inventory was 31.2 (+0.6) million tons, and the social inventory was 89.6 (+4.4) million tons [14]. - **Styrene**: The spot price increased, and the futures price decreased, with the basis strengthening. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period, with a large upward adjustment space. The port inventory has continued to increase significantly. In the long - term, the BZN spread is expected to recover, and the styrene price may rebound when the inventory starts to decline [16][18]. - **Polyethylene**: The futures price decreased. The market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost side has support. The supply - side has only 400,000 tons of planned production capacity left, and the overall inventory is decreasing from a high level. The downstream average operating rate is 40.5%, a 0.20% increase [20]. - **Polypropylene**: The futures price decreased. The supply - side still has 1.45 million tons of planned production capacity, with relatively high pressure. The demand - side downstream operating rate has rebounded seasonally from a low level. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction [21]. - **PX**: The PX11 contract fell 130 yuan to 6680 yuan. The PX load in China was 83.3%, a 1.3% decline; the Asian load was 75.6%, a 0.7% decline. The PTA load was 72.8%, a 2.4% increase. In August, South Korea's PX exports to China were 376,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2,000 tons [23]. - **PTA**: The PTA01 contract fell 76 yuan to 4656 yuan. The PTA load was 72.8%, a 2.4% increase. The downstream load was 91%, a 0.7% increase. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on August 29 was 2.12 million tons, a decrease of 84,000 tons [25]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The EG01 contract rose 26 yuan to 4357 yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 74.1%, a 1% decline. The downstream load was 91%, a 0.7% increase. The port inventory was 449,000 tons, a decrease of 51,000 tons [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current oil price has been relatively undervalued, presenting a good opportunity for left - hand side layout. The fundamentals will support the current price, and if the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [6]. - For methanol, supply pressure is increasing, the market is weak, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [3]. - Regarding urea, it is currently in a situation of low valuation and weak drivers, with limited downside space. It is recommended to focus on going long at low prices [5]. - For rubber, the medium - term view is bullish. In the short - term, the rubber price is expected to be strong, and it is advisable to go long on dips with quick entry and exit. Partially close the position of going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 [13]. - For PVC, the domestic situation is one of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, with a weakening export outlook. It is recommended to look for opportunities to short on rallies [15]. - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to recover in the long - term. When the inventory starts to decline, the styrene price may rebound [18]. - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward movement to the Korean ethylene clearance policy, and the price is expected to fluctuate upwards [20]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure and no prominent short - term contradictions, it is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices [21]. - For PX, although there is currently a lack of upward drivers, the terminal and polyester data are gradually improving, and there is support at the lower end of the valuation. It is advisable to follow the trend of crude oil and look for opportunities to go long at low prices during the peak season [23]. - For PTA, the supply has shifted from inventory accumulation to de - stocking, and the demand side is improving. It is recommended to follow PX and look for opportunities to go long at low prices [25]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is still in excess, and there is downward pressure on the valuation in the medium - term [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 3.40 yuan/barrel, or 0.69%, at 493.20 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined oils, high - sulfur fuel oil, closed down 1.00 yuan/ton, or 0.04%, at 2840.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 30.00 yuan/ton, or 0.85%, at 3512.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Data**: According to the US EIA weekly data, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.39 million barrels to 418.29 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 0.57%; SPR increased by 0.78 million barrels to 404.20 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.19%; gasoline inventories decreased by 1.24 million barrels to 222.33 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 0.55%; diesel inventories decreased by 1.79 million barrels to 114.24 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 1.54%; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.32 million barrels to 20.13 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 1.60%; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.29 million barrels to 43.59 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.68% [1]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On September 3, the 01 contract rose 10 yuan/ton to 2382 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 132 [3]. - **Supply**: Domestic production has further increased, and there is still room for improvement in the future. Import arrivals have increased, and port inventories have accumulated to a high level [3]. - **Demand**: The profit of port MTO has continued to improve, but demand is weak. Traditional demand has not improved significantly, and overall downstream performance is average [3]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see [3]. 3.3 Urea - **Market Quotes**: On September 3, the 01 contract fell 32 yuan/ton to 1714 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of - 14. The futures price broke through the support level on Wednesday, while the spot price remained stable, and the basis strengthened [5]. - **Supply**: The number of maintenance devices has increased, domestic production has decreased, and short - term supply pressure has been relieved. However, enterprise profits are still at a medium - low level [5]. - **Demand**: The production of compound fertilizers has peaked and declined, and domestic agricultural demand has entered the off - season. Exports have increased, and port inventories have risen rapidly. Currently, demand is mainly concentrated in exports [5]. - **Inventory**: Although domestic supply has decreased, demand is weak, and enterprise inventories are at a high level compared to the same period last year [5]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to focus on going long at low prices [5]. 3.4 Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fluctuated and consolidated [8]. - **Factor Analysis**: Due to heavy rain in Thailand in the next 2 - 10 days, the risk of floods has increased, which may cause the rubber price to rise. Bulls believe that factors such as weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may limit rubber production growth, the seasonal pattern usually turns bullish in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears believe that macro - economic expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the positive impact of supply may be less than expected [8][9]. - **Industry Data**: As of August 28, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 62.78%, 1.76 percentage points lower than the previous week and 3.95 percentage points higher than the same period last year. All - steel tire exports were good. The operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 74.57%, 0.19 percentage points higher than the previous week and 4.06 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The downstream inventory of semi - steel tire factories was slow to consume. As of August 31, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 126.5 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons or 0.5% from the previous month. China's total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 79.6 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.09%. China's total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 46.8 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%. As of August 31, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 47.34 (- 0.36) million tons [11]. - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was 14880 (+ 30) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1830 (+ 0) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 1840 (+ 5) US dollars, butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 9400 (+ 50) yuan, and cis - polybutadiene in North China was 11650 (0) yuan [12]. - **Strategy**: The medium - term view is bullish. In the short - term, the rubber price is expected to be strong, and it is advisable to go long on dips with quick entry and exit. Partially close the position of going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 [13]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract fell 10 yuan to 4878 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4680 (0) yuan/ton, the basis was - 198 (+ 10) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 294 (0) yuan/ton [15]. - **Cost**: The cost side remained stable, with the price of calcium carbide in Wuhai at 2300 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke at 660 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of ethylene at 840 (0) US dollars/ton. The spot price of caustic soda was 870 (0) yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply**: The overall operating rate of PVC was 76%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6%. Among them, the operating rate of the calcium carbide method was 77.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%, and the operating rate of the ethylene method was 73%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.6% [15]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% [15]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 31.2 million tons (+ 0.6), and social inventory was 89.6 million tons (+ 4.4) [15]. - **Strategy**: In the domestic situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, with a weakening export outlook and poor fundamentals, it is recommended to look for opportunities to short on rallies [15]. 3.6 Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price fell, the futures price rose, and the basis weakened [17]. - **Factor Analysis**: Currently, the BZN spread is at a relatively low level compared to the same period, with a large upward adjustment space. The production of pure benzene has been fluctuating at a moderate level, and the supply is still abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has increased, and styrene production has continued to rise. Styrene port inventories have continued to accumulate significantly. At the end of the seasonal off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S products has been rising [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The price of pure benzene in East China was 5810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of styrene was 7000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7040 yuan/ton, an increase of 106 yuan/ton; the basis was - 40 yuan/ton, a weakening of 156 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 127.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.25 yuan/ton; the profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 344.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan/ton; the spread between EB contract 1 and contract 2 was 69 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 19 yuan/ton; the upstream operating rate was 78.1%, a decrease of 0.40%; the inventory in Jiangsu ports was 19.65 million tons, an increase of 1.75 million tons; the weighted operating rate of the three S products was 43.84%, an increase of 0.24%; the operating rate of PS was 59.90%, an increase of 2.40%, the operating rate of EPS was 58.35%, a decrease of 2.63%, and the operating rate of ABS was 70.80%, a decrease of 0.30% [18]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the BZN spread is expected to recover. When the inventory starts to decline, the styrene price may rebound [18]. 3.7 Polyolefins 3.7.1 Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [20]. - **Factor Analysis**: The market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there is still support on the cost side. The spot price of polyethylene has remained unchanged, and the downward space for PE valuation is limited. There is only 400,000 tons of planned production capacity left, and the overall inventory has decreased from a high level, providing support for the price. The seasonal peak season may be approaching, and the procurement of raw materials for agricultural films has started, with the overall operating rate stabilizing at a low level [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the main contract was 7247 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was 3 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 5 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.09%, a month - on - month increase of 0.07%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 45.08 million tons, an increase of 2.38 million tons, and the trader inventory was 5.85 million tons, a decrease of 0.12 million tons. The average downstream operating rate was 40.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.20%. The LL1 - 5 spread was 7 yuan/ton, a month - on - month narrowing of 1 yuan/ton [20]. - **Outlook**: The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward movement to the Korean ethylene clearance policy, and the price is expected to fluctuate upwards [20]. 3.7.2 Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [21]. - **Factor Analysis**: There is still 1.45 million tons of planned production capacity, resulting in relatively high supply pressure. On the demand side, the downstream operating rate has rebounded from a seasonal low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and there are no prominent short - term contradictions [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the main contract was 6954 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6990 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was 36 yuan/ton, a weakening of 11 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 80.42%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 55 million tons, an increase of 1.15 million tons, the trader inventory was 19.30 million tons, an increase of 2.48 million tons, and the port inventory was 5.85 million tons, a decrease of 0.18 million tons. The average downstream operating rate was 49.74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.21%. The LL - PP spread was 293 yuan/ton, a month - on - month narrowing of 16 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices [21]. 3.8 Polyester 3.8.1 PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract fell 24 yuan to 6810 yuan, the PX CFR price fell 3 US dollars to 843 US dollars, the basis was 99 yuan (+ 1) after conversion at the RMB central parity rate, and the 11 - 1 spread was 48 yuan (- 4) [23]. - **Supply**: The operating rate in China was 83.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%, and the operating rate in Asia was 75.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. There were few changes in domestic plants [23]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of PTA was 70.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5%. Some PTA plants had maintenance or unexpected shutdowns, while others were in the process of restarting or commissioning [23]. - **Import**: In August, South Korea exported 37.6 million tons of PX to China, an increase of 0.2 million tons compared to the same period last year [23]. - **Inventory**: At the end of July, the inventory was 389.9 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24 million tons [23]. - **Valuation and Cost**: The PXN was 246 US dollars (- 6), and the naphtha crack spread was 94 US dollars (- 3) [23]. - **，**: Currently, the PX operating rate remains high, and there have been many unexpected short - term maintenance of downstream PTA plants, with the overall operating rate at a low level. However, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to maintain low inventory levels, and the terminal and polyester data are gradually improving, providing support for the valuation at the lower end. However, due to the lack of upward drivers currently and the reduction in the amount of unexpected PTA maintenance compared to previous expectations, the PXN has limited upward momentum. The valuation is currently at a moderate level, and the terminal and polyester are expected to continue to recover. It is advisable to follow the trend of crude oil and look for opportunities to go long at low prices during the

Report Overview - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various industries including polyolefins, crude oil, chlor-alkali, pure benzene-styrene, methanol, PX-PTA-EG, and urea on September 2, 2025. It presents price changes, supply-demand dynamics, and offers investment strategies for each sector. 1. Polyolefins Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In September, the polyolefin market shows a "supply decrease and demand increase" characteristic, with inventory reduction and controllable market pressure. It is recommended to hold the expanding position of the LP01 contract [2]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 futures prices declined slightly. The basis of some varieties changed, and the spread between different contracts also showed fluctuations [2]. - **Supply**: PE's early - September device maintenance volume remains high, and the scale gradually decreases after the middle of the month. PP shows a "supply - demand double - increase" situation due to new capacity release and the return of maintenance devices [2]. - **Demand**: The downstream industry's开工 rate increased compared to last month, but new orders have weak support [2]. 2. Crude Oil Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Overnight oil prices fluctuated strongly. The market is in a game between geopolitical risk support and long - term oversupply expectations. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally in the short term and look for opportunities to expand spreads after increased volatility [4]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices rose. The spreads of some refined oil products and cracking spreads also changed [4]. - **Supply - Demand**: OPEC + production cuts, inventory decline, and China's strategic reserve absorption ease short - term pressure, but the expectation of war suppressing demand may lead to a 10% drop in oil prices this year and a large - scale surplus at the end of the year [4]. 3. Chlor - Alkali Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The caustic soda futures market is strong, and the PVC market is in an oversupply situation and is expected to continue to oscillate weakly [7]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: The export profit of caustic soda decreased, and the export profit of PVC increased. The开工 rate and profit of related industries also changed [7]. - **Supply**: The开工 rate of the caustic soda and PVC industries declined [7]. - **Demand**: The开工 rate of some downstream industries of caustic soda increased, while the demand for PVC remained weak [7]. 4. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In September, the supply - demand expectation of pure benzene weakens, and the absolute price is under pressure. The short - term driving force of styrene is weak, but there is an expectation of improvement in supply - demand later [15]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene decreased, and the spreads between related products also changed [13][14]. - **Supply**: The planned maintenance of pure benzene devices in September is few, and new devices are expected to be put into production. The short - term supply of styrene remains high [15]. - **Demand**: The downstream of pure benzene has multiple loss - making varieties, and the demand for styrene is currently strong but may be affected by future device maintenance [15]. 5. Methanol Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The methanol market has a problem of continuous inventory accumulation at ports, and the basis is weak. Attention should be paid to the inventory digestion rhythm [21]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: Methanol futures prices rose slightly, and the basis and spread changed [21]. - **Supply**: Domestic and overseas methanol enterprises'开工 rate changed, and imports in September are still large [21]. - **Demand**: Traditional downstream demand is weak, and attention should be paid to the restart of MTO devices at ports [21]. 6. PX - PTA - EG Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The supply - demand of PX, PTA, and EG is expected to improve, and short - fiber also has a good supply - demand expectation, but the de - stocking amplitude is limited [25]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: PX, PTA, and EG prices and spreads changed. PTA's processing margin decreased slightly [25]. - **Supply**: PX's maintenance devices restart, PTA's planned unplanned maintenance increases, and domestic EG's开工 rate is high [25]. - **Demand**: The polyester and terminal loads increased, and the "Golden September and Silver October" expectation still exists [25]. 7. Urea Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The urea futures market is weak, mainly due to weak demand. The upward pressure on the futures price is large under high - supply conditions [34]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: Urea prices in some regions decreased slightly, and the spreads between different regions also changed [34]. - **Supply**: Although there are local maintenance plans, the daily output remains at about 180,000 tons [34]. - **Demand**: Agricultural off - season and industrial on - demand procurement suppress domestic demand, and dealers' fertilizer - stocking willingness is low [34].