| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002311 | 海大集团 | 54.59 | -1.89% | 8.09万 | 4.43 Z | | 002100 | 天康生物 | 6.92 | -0.57% | 16.92万 | + 1.17亿 | | 603609 | 末丰股份 | 7.36 | -0.41% | 3.33万 | 2456.71万 | | 002567 | 唐人神 | 4.55 | -0.22% | 16.73万 | 7615.04万 | | 002696 | 自洋股份 | 7.11 | 0.00% | 10.96万 | 7782.02万 | | 688156 | 路德科技 | 16.41 | 0.18% | 1.24万 | 2032.90万 | | 920419 | 路斯股份 | 16.12 | 0.19% | 6147.56 | 994.21万 | | 002385 | 大北农 | 4.04 | 0.25% | 38.67万 | 1.56亿 | | 301498 | 乖 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月07日 2025年12月08日 农林牧渔 2025 年 12 月投资策略 优于大市 牧业大周期反转预计在即，核心推荐港股奶牛养殖标的 月度重点推荐组合：优然牧业（牧业大周期受益龙头），现代牧业（国内牧 业龙头企业）、牧原股份（生猪养殖龙头）。 各细分板块推荐逻辑：1）肉牛及原奶：牧业大周期反转预计在即，看好国 内肉奶景气共振上行，牧业公司业绩有望迎来高弹性修复。2）生猪：头部 企业现金流快速好转，并有望转型为红利标的，在全行业产能收缩的背景下， 龙头的成本优势有望明显提高，强者恒强。3）宠物：宠物作为新消费优质 赛道，长期景气受益人口趋势，且国内自主品牌正快速崛起，头部宠食标的 中期业绩增长确定性仍较强。4）饲料：畜禽养殖工业化加深，产业分工明 确，饲料龙头凭借技术和服务优势，有望进一步拉大竞争优势。5）禽：供 给波动幅度有限，行情有望随需求复苏，龙头企业凭借单位超额收益优势有 望实现更高现金流分红回报。 农产品价格跟踪：1）生猪：11 月末生猪 11.25 元/公斤，月环比-10%，7kg 仔猪价格约 216 元/头，月环比+18%。2）禽：11 月末白鸡毛鸡价格 7.10 ...

专题：2025《中国企业家》影响力企业家年会 第十四届全国政协委员，新希望集团董事长刘永好在2025（第二十三届）影响力企业家年会上总结一 些"出海"经验时表示：首先是"一高于"，相比这些地方的收入水平，特别是共建"一带一路"国家员工的 收入，我们一般会高于同类企业30%，这样就能留得住员工，他们也愿意在你这儿；其次是"两尊重"， 尊重人家的文化、法律；此外，"三传播"，传播中国文化、传播中国制造、传播中国的企业家精神。 他指出，由于我们按照"一二三"顺序来走，在全球很多国家和地区都建了工厂，也取得了成就，让传统 农业也能焕发新质生产力。原先那些1984年建的厂房，建设成本才300块钱/平方米，而今天的饲料厂， 很多机器人自动化操作，格局发生了很大变化。 他指出，由于我们按照"一二三"顺序来走，在全球很多国家和地区都建了工厂，也取得了成就，让传统 农业也能焕发新质生产力。原先那些1984年建的厂房，建设成本才300块钱/平方米，而今天的饲料厂， 很多机器人自动化操作，格局发生了很大变化。 "所以，企业家要勇立潮头，主动用优质产品和服务赢得市场竞争。"他说。 新浪声明：所有会议实录均为现场速记整理，未经演讲者审 ...

Core Insights - The report anticipates a significant reversal in the livestock cycle, particularly recommending Hong Kong-listed dairy farming stocks [1][12] - The monthly recommended portfolio includes YouRan Agriculture, Modern Farming, and Muyuan Foods, which are expected to benefit from the livestock cycle recovery [1][3] - The report highlights the expected upward trend in domestic beef and milk prices, suggesting a strong recovery in the performance of livestock companies [1][14] Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is projected to experience a major turnaround, with a focus on dairy farming stocks such as YouRan Agriculture and Modern Farming [1][14] - The report indicates that the domestic beef and milk markets are likely to see a price rebound, driven by a reduction in production capacity and improved demand dynamics [1][14] - The anticipated "meat-milk resonance" is expected to enhance profitability for dairy farming companies, with significant earnings recovery potential [1][14] Swine Sector - The swine sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in prices, with leading companies like Huazhong and Muyuan Foods positioned to benefit from valuation corrections [1][14] - The report notes that the cash flow of leading swine companies is improving, which may lead to higher dividend payouts in the future [1][15] - The current market conditions suggest that the swine industry is stabilizing, with a focus on maintaining reasonable breeding levels [22] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is experiencing a slight increase in supply, with expectations for demand recovery to support price stabilization [24] - The report highlights that the white-feathered chicken market is showing signs of recovery, with prices expected to improve as the consumption season approaches [24] - Leading poultry companies are anticipated to maintain strong profitability amid changing supply dynamics [24] Pet Industry - The pet industry is identified as a promising growth area, with domestic brands gaining traction and expected to benefit from rising consumer sentiment [1][16] - The report emphasizes the potential for local pet food brands to capture market share, particularly in the high-end segment [1][16] - The performance of leading pet food companies is projected to remain strong, driven by product upgrades and direct sales strategies [20] Feed Sector - The feed sector is expected to benefit from deeper industrialization in livestock farming, with leading companies leveraging technological and service advantages [1][14] - The report indicates that feed prices are at historical lows, providing a strong cost support for livestock producers [1][14] - The anticipated tightening of supply-demand balance in the feed market is expected to lead to gradual price recovery [1][14] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, noting that the price of live pigs was 11.25 yuan/kg at the end of November, down 10% month-on-month, while the price of 7kg piglets increased by 18% [2][22] - The report also highlights that corn prices have increased by 4% month-on-month, indicating a potential bottoming out in the market [2][22] - The overall agricultural sector is showing resilience, with the SW Agricultural Index outperforming the broader market [2][22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The industry is experiencing dual support for pig prices due to supply and demand factors, with expectations for continued pressure on large pig sales from individual farmers [4][13] - The overall trend indicates a reduction in breeding stock, with significant implications for the industry as losses in pig farming accelerate [26] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - There is significant short-term pressure on large pig sales from individual farmers, while large farming groups face less pressure to meet annual sales targets [4][13] - As of December 5, 2025, the average price of pigs nationwide is 11.19 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.08 yuan/kg and a year-on-year decrease of 4.40 yuan/kg [4][13] Weekly Perspective - The pig farming sector is facing losses, leading to an accelerated reduction in breeding stock. The price of pigs continues to decline, creating deeper losses for farmers [26] - Recommendations include companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [26] Market Performance (December 1-5) - The agricultural sector underperformed the market by 1.86 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.37% while the agricultural index fell by 1.49% [28][32] - Notable stock performances include Haodangjia (+16.15%), Xiwang Food (+10.26%), and Biological Shares (+9.66%) [28][35] Price Tracking (December 1-5) - The average price of pigs on December 5 is 11.20 yuan/kg, with a slight increase from the previous week [38] - The average price of piglets is 19.26 yuan/kg, also showing a week-on-week increase [38] - Other agricultural products such as white feather chicken and beef have seen price increases, with corn futures rising by 2.50% [38][49] Major Meat Import Volumes - In October 2025, pork imports totaled 70,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21.1%, while chicken imports were 7,100 tons, down 72.1% [55][57] Feed Production - In October 2025, the total industrial feed production in China was 29.07 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 4.2% [57]

相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国饲料行业市场调查研究及发展前景展望报告》 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年10月中国饲料产量为2957万吨，同比增长4.3%；2025年1-10月中国饲 料累计产量为27913.3万吨，累计增长6.1%。 上市企业：新希望（000876）,海大集团（002311）,通威股份（600438）,大北农（002385）,粤海饲料 （001313） 2020-2025年1-10月中国饲料产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 ...

证券之星消息，12月5日饲料板块较上一交易日上涨0.27%，天马科技领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3902.81，上涨0.7%。深证成指报收于13147.68，上涨1.08%。饲料板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603668 | 天马科技 | 16.29 | 4.29% | 34.13万 | | 5.50亿 | | 002696 | 自洋股份 | 7.11 | 2.75% | 13.62万 | | 9561.40万 | | 920419 | 路斯股份 | 16.09 | 2.61% | ● 1.01万 | | 1588.71万 | | 001366 | 播恩集团 | 66'EI | 2.04% | - 3.59万 | | 4962.08万 | | 000702 | 正虹科技 | 6.93 | 1.91% | | 5.00万 | 3432.35万 | | 603363 | 傲农生物 | 4.59 | 1.77% | 27.79万 | | 1.26亿 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 12 月 5 日 星期五 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周四（12 月 4 日） A 股三大指数涨跌不一，截止收盘，沪指跌 0.06%，收报 3875.79 点；深 证成指涨 0.40%，收报 13006.72 点；创业板指涨 1.01%，收报 3067.48 点。沪深两市成交额仅有 15490 亿，较昨 日缩量 1210 亿。 沪深 300 指数 12 月 4 日震荡整理。收盘 4546.57，环比上涨 15.52。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【焦炭 焦煤】12 月 4 日焦炭加权指数强势，收盘价 1704.6，环比上涨 33.6。 12 月 4 日，焦煤加权指数震荡趋强，收盘价 1143.8 元，环比上涨 21.0。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭:吨焦平均利润受上下游让利好转，开工略有回升，供给环比增加。上周铁水日均产量 234.68 万吨，环 比-1.6 万吨，铁水季节性下滑的后，刚需走弱，投机性需求随着煤价近期的补跌回落，上游焦化厂累库，港口 去库，下游累库，总库存基本持平。 客服产品系列•日评 焦煤：山西中硫主焦 1378，环比-3，蒙 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent disclosures from multiple listed companies regarding share buybacks and the top ten shareholders reveal significant shifts in institutional investment strategies, with notable divergence in traditional sectors and increased interest in technology, military, and pharmaceutical sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Institutional Investment Dynamics - There is a marked divergence among institutional investors regarding traditional sector stocks such as Hai Da Group and Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism, with some institutions reducing their holdings while others increase them [2]. - Hai Da Group's top ten shareholders include eight positions held by public funds and social security funds, collectively owning over 120 million shares, which is more than 7% of the total share capital [2]. - Notable actions include a reduction of 362,600 shares by Liu Yanchun's fund, while social security funds significantly increased their holdings in Hai Da Group during the same period [2]. Group 2: Performance of Specific Stocks - Hai Da Group reported a net profit of 4.177 billion yuan for the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 18.71%, while Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism achieved a net profit of 143 million yuan, up 33.47% year-on-year [3]. - Other stocks such as Hengmingda, Huaron, and Huida Technology have also seen institutional increases, particularly in sectors like consumer electronics, military, and pharmaceuticals [4][5]. - Hengmingda received an increase of 4.9717 million shares from the national social security fund, while Huida Technology saw an increase of over 5.5 million shares from the same fund [4]. Group 3: Reduction in High-Growth Stocks - Stocks that previously experienced significant price increases, such as Hot Scene Biology and Shanghai Mechanical, have faced reductions from various institutions, indicating a trend of profit-taking [6]. - Hot Scene Biology, which saw a price increase of over 300%, was reduced by multiple institutions, while Shanghai Mechanical, which increased by over 80%, also faced reductions [6]. - The trend of reducing holdings in high-growth stocks is further evidenced by the exit of social security funds from the top ten shareholders of certain companies [6]. Group 4: ETF Involvement - The presence of ETFs in institutional trading has become more prominent, with nearly 30% of A-share stocks having ETFs among their top ten shareholders as of the end of the third quarter [7]. - The changes in ETF holdings are often driven by factors such as changes in fund subscriptions and index component adjustments [7].

（来源：宁夏金融工作） "现在每月只需按时结息，三年后再还本金，资金周转太灵活了！"宁夏岩卓农牧科技有限公司负责 人马有成向记者算起"金融账"。在邮储银行固原市分行的精准支持下，这位跨界转型的农牧创业者不仅 熬过行业寒冬，更将饲料生意做得风生水起。 2024年上半年，邮储银行固原市分行主动对接，30万元纯信用贷款快速到账，"按季结息、三年到期还 本"的还款方式精准匹配农牧业周期。"这笔'及时雨'救了急，更给了底气！"马有成说，凭借金融支持， 生意下半年便企稳回升，如今销售网络已覆盖固原四县一区，服务上百家养殖户。 "他的饲料采食率高、促增重，价格还实惠！"同村老主顾提着80斤母牛育肥饲料笑着说。扎根乡村八 年，马有成的饲料超市已成为养殖户信赖的"营养补给站"。 据悉，邮储银行固原市分行持续优化涉农金融服务，创新信用贷、专项贷等产品，开辟"无纸化申请、 线上审批、快速到账"绿色通道，破解涉农主体融资难、融资贵、审批慢难题。截至目前，该行已为众 多农牧创业者注入金融动能，本年发放农牧贷6800万元，让金融"活水"在六盘山下精准滴灌，助力乡村 全面振兴。 审核：赵楠 （来源：宁夏金融工作） "现在每月只需按时结息， ...