Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The domestic macro situation is favorable for non - ferrous metals this week. The copper price has obvious support at the bottom, and attention should be paid to restocking opportunities around 7.6 - 7.7. For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory arbitrage opportunities. Zinc prices fluctuated upward this week, with short - term suggestions to observe the squeeze - out market and manage positions, and hold long - short positions in different markets. Nickel's short - term fundamentals are average, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio. Stainless steel's fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to policy trends. Lead prices declined slightly this week, and it is expected to oscillate between 16800 - 17500 next week. Tin prices fluctuated widely this week, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. Industrial silicon's supply is expected to decrease, and the market is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction, with the disk expected to oscillate. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate, and the downward inflection point requires significant inventory accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot goods [1][2][3][6][9][12][14] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: From July 17 - 23, the spot premium changed from 110 to 180, the waste - refined copper price difference decreased by 10, the SHFE inventory remained unchanged at 84556, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 9972. The spot import profit decreased by 340.21, and the March import profit decreased by 117.79 [1] - **Market Analysis**: Domestic macro is favorable. The waste - refined price difference has shrunk significantly, the scrap substitution effect is prominent, and the refined copper rod start - up rate has rebounded. The spot import window opened this week, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of long - position import logistics in the third and fourth quarters [1] Aluminum - **Market Data**: From July 17 - 23, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 100, the domestic alumina price increased by 8, and the SHFE social inventory data is incomplete. The aluminum LME inventory increased by 6350, and the LME cancelled warehouse receipts decreased by 100 [1] - **Market Analysis**: Supply has increased slightly, and demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July. The supply and demand are expected to be balanced in July, and attention should be paid to far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage opportunities under the low - inventory pattern [1] Zinc - **Market Data**: From July 17 - 23, the spot premium decreased by 20, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 40, and the zinc social inventory remained unchanged. The SHFE zinc exchange inventory remained unchanged, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1275, and the LME zinc cancelled warehouse receipts decreased by 1275 [2] - **Market Analysis**: Zinc prices fluctuated upward this week. Supply is expected to increase, demand is seasonally weak, domestic social inventory is rising, and overseas LME inventory is decreasing. There is a risk of short - squeeze in lead and zinc [2] Nickel - **Market Data**: From July 17 - 23, the price of 1.5 - grade Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 550, and the spot import return increased by 794.56. The LME nickel inventory decreased by 2220, and the LME cancelled warehouse receipts decreased by 630 [3] - **Market Analysis**: Pure nickel production remains high, demand is weak, and both domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories have increased slightly. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [3] Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From July 17 - 23, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil increased by 100, and the price of waste stainless steel increased by 50 [3] - **Market Analysis**: Supply has decreased due to some passive production cuts by steel mills. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory in Xijiao and Foshan has decreased slightly. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to policy trends [3] Lead - **Market Data**: From July 17 - 23, the spot premium increased by 5, the social inventory data is incomplete, and the SHFE inventory remained unchanged. The LME lead inventory increased by 650, and the LME cancelled warehouse receipts decreased by 3000 [6] - **Market Analysis**: Lead prices declined slightly this week. Supply is expected to increase slightly, demand has improved, but inventory accumulation is still expected. It is expected to oscillate between 16800 - 17500 next week [6] Tin - **Market Data**: From July 17 - 23, the spot import return decreased by 5532.31, the spot export return increased by 4474.88, and the LME tin inventory decreased by 25. The LME cancelled warehouse receipts increased by 200 [9] - **Market Analysis**: Tin prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply may decline slightly in July - August, demand is weak, and domestic inventory is rising. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [9] Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From July 17 - 23, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 430, the 421 Sichuan basis increased by 430, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 53 [12] - **Market Analysis**: The start - up rate of leading enterprises has decreased, and the supply is expected to decrease. The market is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction, and the disk is expected to oscillate [12] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From July 17 - 23, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 1350, the SMM industrial carbon price increased by 1350, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 665 [14] - **Market Analysis**: Lithium carbonate futures prices have risen. The supply and demand are both strong in the short term, and the inventory pressure in the intermediate link is increasing. The price is expected to oscillate, and the downward inflection point requires significant inventory accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot goods [14]

Market Overview - As of June 27, 2025, A-shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.70% at 3424.23 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.34% to 10378.55 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.47% to 2124.34 points [1] - The total trading volume across both markets reached 1.54 trillion yuan, with northbound capital trading balanced for the day [1] Sector Performance - Industrial metals, other electronics, and communication equipment were the top gainers, with increases of 3.49%, 3.10%, and 2.56% respectively [1] - Conversely, rural commercial banks, large state-owned banks, and city commercial banks were the biggest losers, declining by 3.40%, 3.06%, and 2.90% respectively [1] ETF Performance - A total of 571 non-currency ETFs rose, accounting for 49% of the market [1] - The China Securities Communication Equipment Theme Index increased by 2.36%, while the Communication Equipment ETF rose by 2.62% [1] - The China Securities Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index saw a rise of 2.22%, with the Industrial Nonferrous ETF increasing by 2.89% [1] Specific ETF Details - The Asia Pacific Select ETF (159687.SZ) has a latest share size of 325 million, closely tracking the FTSE Asia Pacific Low Carbon Select Index, which emphasizes low carbon companies [4] - The Industrial Nonferrous ETF (560860.SH) has a share size of 455 million and tracks the China Securities Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index, with a current P/E ratio of 14.62, below the historical average [4] - The Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652.SZ) has a share size of 256 million and tracks the China Securities Sub-Industry Nonferrous Metals Theme Index, with a current P/E ratio of 17.83, also below the historical average [5] Declining ETFs - A total of 520 non-currency ETFs declined, representing 45% of the market [5] - The China Securities 800 Bank Index and the China Securities Bank Index were among the largest decliners, down by 2.95% and 2.94% respectively [5] Premium Rates - The S&P 500 Consumer Select Index had a premium rate of 25.79%, while the S&P 500 Index had a premium of 12.87% [8] - The top three ETFs by premium rate included the S&P Consumer ETF (25.79%), S&P 500 ETF (12.87%), and Saudi ETF (4.77%) [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in net profits for tin-listed companies due to rising tin prices driven by supply-demand changes, particularly from disruptions in key mining regions [1][3][4] - In Q1, major tin companies reported substantial revenue growth, with Tin Industry Co. achieving a revenue of 9.729 billion yuan, up 15.82%, and a net profit of 499 million yuan, up 53.08% [1] - Other companies like Huaxi Nonferrous and Xingye Silver also reported impressive growth, with Huaxi Nonferrous's revenue reaching 1.245 billion yuan, up 20.16%, and Xingye Silver's revenue at 1.149 billion yuan, up 50.37% [2][1] Group 2 - The supply-side challenges are deepening, with significant disruptions from the Bisie tin mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo and earthquakes in Myanmar, leading to an expanded supply-demand gap and pushing tin prices close to 300,000 yuan per ton [3][6] - Policy changes, such as Indonesia's adjustment of tin export tax rates, have further exacerbated supply concerns, increasing export costs and impacting domestic smelting operations [3] - Domestic smelting plants are facing raw material shortages, resulting in historically low processing fees and a slight decline in overall operating rates [3] Group 3 - On the demand side, structural upgrades are supporting long-term growth, with sectors like semiconductors, AI computing, and new energy driving increased tin demand [4] - The semiconductor industry's recovery is a key driver, with global sales expected to grow over 15% year-on-year in Q1 2025, significantly impacting tin consumption [4] - New energy vehicles and AI infrastructure are creating new demand growth areas, although high tin prices may lead to cautious purchasing behavior among downstream companies [5][4] Group 4 - The market is experiencing high volatility, with concerns over terminal demand due to tariff policies causing tin prices to drop to around 260,000 yuan per ton after a peak [6] - Predictions indicate that Q2 will be the tightest quarter for the global tin market, with ongoing supply challenges from key mining regions [6] - The interaction of macro policies, geopolitical factors, and industrial demand is critical, as the global tin market is at a pivotal point where any significant variable could lead to drastic price reactions [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - level shows that Trump signaled tariff adjustment, the Sino - US tariff dispute may ease, and the Fed may cut interest rates in June after getting more economic data. The market risk preference has cooled [5]. - Fundamentally, although Indonesia lowered the nickel ore domestic trade benchmark price in April (Phase II), the FOB price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore is still strong, and the price of Philippine nickel ore has risen significantly. Domestic nickel ore port inventories are at a low level. The inventory of 300 - series stainless steel shows signs of destocking but is still at a high level, suppressing the continuous decline of ferronickel prices. The nickel sulfate market is mediocre. After the nickel price stabilizes, the domestic - foreign price difference is corrected, and the export window re - opens, supporting high domestic production. Market transactions are dull, waiting for the implementation of Indonesian policies [5]. - In the later stage, there are disturbance risks in both policy and resource aspects. It is advisable to be cautious and wait and see in the short term. The new Indonesian tax regulations come into effect on Saturday, and the negotiated tax rate may differ from expectations. In the industry, as the auto sales enter the off - season, there is no incremental expectation in the power market, and the high stainless - steel inventory will continue to pressure the ferronickel price. Supply remains high with no recent disturbances, and there is no current supply - demand contradiction. However, with overseas nickel ore shortages, domestic nickel ore port inventories are at an absolute low, and the overseas shortage may gradually affect the domestic market. While being vigilant about policy disturbances, pay attention to the risks at the mine end [5][13]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Last Week's Market Important Data - SHFE nickel price on April 25, 2025, was 125,800 yuan/ton, up 1,660 yuan/ton from April 16 [6]. - LME nickel price on April 25, 2025, was 15,545 dollars/ton, down 138 dollars/ton from April 16 [6]. - LME inventory on April 25, 2025, was 203,850 tons, down 678 tons from April 16 [6]. - SHFE inventory on April 25, 2025, was 24,800 tons, down 520 tons from April 16 [6]. - Jinchuan nickel premium on April 25, 2025, was 2,150 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan/ton from April 16 [6]. - Russian nickel premium remained unchanged at 250 yuan/ton from April 16 to April 25 [6]. - The average price of high - nickel pig iron on April 25, 2025, was 990 yuan/nickel point, down 20 yuan/nickel point from April 16 [6]. - Stainless - steel inventory on April 25, 2025, was 926,000 tons, down 17,400 tons from April 16 [6]. 2. Market Review Nickel Ore - The FOB price of Philippine 1.5% laterite nickel ore rose from 49.25 dollars/wet ton to 51 dollars/wet ton, and the FOB price of Indonesian 1.5% laterite nickel ore rose from 36.25 dollars/wet ton to 38 dollars/wet ton (April 18). Although Indonesia recently lowered the April (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price, the shortage situation continues, and the prices of both Indonesian and Philippine nickel ores have increased [7]. - Domestic nickel ore port inventories have reached a low level in recent years. Despite the continuous increase in domestic nickel ore arrivals this year, the demand for nickel ore is strong due to the record - high domestic refined nickel production [7]. Ferronickel - The average arrival - port duty - paid price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron dropped from 987 yuan/nickel point to 973 yuan/nickel point. In March, China's ferronickel production was 25,400 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.25%. In March, the total domestic ferronickel imports were about 1.0133 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 60%, and the import scale exceeded one million tons for the first time. Indonesia's ferronickel production in April is expected to be 141,000 nickel tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.44%, with the production growth rate significantly slowing down [8]. - In April, the total production of China's 300 - series stainless steel was about 1.92 million tons, an increase of 26 tons compared with the same period last year. As of April 24, the domestic stainless - steel inventory was 579,600 tons, a month - on - month destocking of 15,900 tons. Overall, the inventory accumulation of stainless steel has slowed down, but the destocking trend is not obvious, and the inventory remains at a high level. Currently, domestic ferronickel still faces strong cost pressure and high import dependence, with the import scale reaching a new high. However, the current nickel ore supply in Indonesia is tight, and the growth of ferronickel production has significantly slowed down [8]. Nickel Sulfate - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate rose from 28,050 yuan/ton to 28,080 yuan/ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate rose from 29,750 yuan/ton to 30,750 yuan/ton. In April, the expected production of nickel sulfate is about 27,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.19%. In April, the production of ternary materials rebounded month - on - month, with a total of about 62,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.22%. Overall, the new - energy power market performs mediocrely, the mainstream cathode is still lithium - iron phosphate, and the market share of ternary materials is continuously compressed. With the future entry of CATL's sodium - ion batteries into the market, the market share of ternary batteries may be further squeezed, and the long - term demand for nickel sulfate is expected to decline [9]. Macro - level - Trump signaled tariff negotiations and said that the tariff sanctions on China would be significantly reduced, but as of the report release, Sino - US tariff negotiations had not started. The US economic survey report shows that there is no obvious change in the US domestic economy, but it repeatedly emphasizes the uncertainty of the impact of tariff policies on the economy. Fed officials said that there are signs of cooling in the US labor market, and the Fed may start to cut interest rates in June after getting more data support. After the news was released, non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and gold rebounded significantly [5][9][10]. Fundamentals - Supply side: In April, domestic production capacity was stable, and production reached a new high. The expected production of refined nickel in April was 34,280 tons, an increase of about 2,120 tons from the previous month; the sample production capacity was 53,299 tons, the same as the previous period; the expected operating rate in April was 64.32%, an increase of about 0.12 percentage points from the previous month. In March, the domestic electrolytic nickel export scale was about 145,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 93.53%. As of April 23, the export profit of Chinese nickel under the SMM caliber was 218.08 dollars/ton. Overall, although the month - on - month export of domestic electrolytic nickel has shrunk, the year - on - year increase is significant, and the absolute volume remains at a high level. With the stable nickel price, the domestic - foreign price difference is corrected, and the export window re - opens, which will still support high domestic electrolytic nickel supply [10]. - Consumption side: From April 1 - 20, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles nationwide were 478,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 20% compared with the same period in April last year and a month - on - month decrease of 11%. The retail penetration rate was 53.3%. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative retail sales have been 2.898 million units, a year - on - year increase of 33%. In early April, the growth rate of new - energy vehicle sales slowed down significantly, dragging down the annual consumption growth rate. According to the CPCA, the production - sales ratio of new - energy vehicles is at a low level, and the post - holiday rebound is weaker than in previous years. The weak demand momentum leads to a mismatch between vehicle manufacturers' production plans and sales expectations, and the inventory pressure on the whole vehicle remains. Short - term consumption may depend on the results of the auto show in the second half of the month. Currently, China and the EU have started negotiations on electric - vehicle prices, and a minimum - pricing plan will replace the tariff plan. However, regardless of the pricing result, the competitiveness of domestic brands in the European market will gradually weaken, and the external demand for exports is not optimistic. In the traditional field, as of April 20, the cumulative sales of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities were 285,600 units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.87%; the cumulative sales area was 29.6657 million square meters, a year - on - year increase of 4.16%. Overall, the domestic commodity sales have weakened again, and the year - on - year negative growth shows signs of expanding, indicating that the previous replacement demand may be coming to an end. With the lack of financial attributes, the rigid - demand consumption of housing is limited. However, there is still a window for the easing of Sino - US trade, and electrical appliance orders are expected to gradually recover in the near future, but the incremental expectation is limited, and it is difficult to change the bearish fundamentals [11]. Inventory - The current total social inventory of pure nickel in six locations is 44,661 tons, an increase of 701 tons from the previous period; the SHFE inventory is 24,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 520 tons; the LME nickel inventory is 203,850 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 678 tons; the total inventory of the world's two major exchanges is 228,650 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,198 tons [12]. 3. Industry Highlights - LG's withdrawal may delay Indonesia's goal of becoming an electric - vehicle battery center. The vice - chairman of the Indonesian Energy, Mineral, and Coal Suppliers Association said that LG's withdrawal from the "Titan Project" may delay Indonesia's goal of becoming a center for electric - vehicle (EV) batteries [14]. - The construction of Jinchuan's nickel - cobalt nickel smelter project has accelerated. In 2025, Jinchuan's nickel - cobalt nickel smelter launched a "key - project mode" focusing on technological innovation, equipment upgrading, and green transformation. The number of projects increased by 145% year - on - year, and the investment increased by 41.5% to comprehensively enhance core competitiveness [14]. - Hanrui Cobalt has postponed the commissioning of its nickel smelter in Indonesia to 2026. Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co., Ltd. has postponed the commissioning of its nickel - smelting project in Indonesia to March 31, 2026, citing delays in obtaining administrative permits at the project site and complex geological conditions [14]. - Zhefu Holdings' nickel sulfate production line has been put into operation. As of April 16, Zhefu Holdings stated on the investor interaction platform that its nickel sulfate production line has been put into operation, with a nickel equivalent production of about 6,400 tons in 2024. The refined cobalt sulfate and lithium carbonate projects have basically completed construction and are ready for commissioning [14].

证券代码：603527 证券简称：众源新材 公告编号：2025-014 安徽众源新材料股份有限公司 2025 年第一季度主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 根据上海证券交易所《上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号——行业信息披露》及 其附件《第十六号——有色金属》有关规定和披露要求，并结合公司的实际情况， 公司 2025 年第一季度主要经营数据如下： | | | | | | 生产量 | 销售量 | 库存量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要产品 | 单位 | 生产量 | 销售量 | 库存量 | 比上年 | 比上年 | 比上年 | | | | | | | 同期增 | 同期增 | 同期增 | | | | | | | 减（%） | 减（%） | 减（%） | | 铜板带 | 吨 | 28,143.07 | 28,491.78 | 2,460.97 | 5.89 | 6.97 | -1.95 | | 铜箔 | 吨 | 783.47 | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the non-ferrous metal ETF (512400) has seen a rise of over 2% in early trading, supported by multiple factors including high copper and gold prices, indicating a potential resurgence of the "periodic table" market trend [1][2] - The non-ferrous metal ETF's trading volume reached 145 million yuan in half a day, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Northern Copper, Quartz Shares, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jiangxi Copper, and Tongling Nonferrous Metals [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum, one of the top ten weighted stocks in the ETF, reported a record revenue of 213.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.37%, and a net profit of 13.53 billion yuan, up 64.03% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - According to Guosheng Securities, expectations of tariffs and a tight supply of copper are driving prices up, with global copper inventory decreasing to 768,000 tons, down by 18,000 tons week-on-week [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary revealed that new tariff measures will take effect on April 2, which is expected to increase pressure on tariffs and lead to a transfer of physical inventory to the U.S., further tightening supply and pushing prices higher [1] - The current non-ferrous metal market trend is attributed to the visible risks in the global supply chain and the revaluation of strategic resources, with expectations for a "periodic table" market trend to re-emerge this spring [2]