作 者丨特约记者庞华玮 编 辑丨巫燕玲 此外，4月7日晚间， 宁德时代 公告，公司拟使用不低于4 0亿元且不超过 8 0亿元 自有或自筹 资金以集中竞价交易方式回购部分股份，并在未来适宜时机用于股权激励计划或员工持股计 划。 4月7日晚， 中国电科 发布公告称，基于对我国经济长期向好的坚定信心，积极履行对资本市 场承诺， 已完成增持回购旗下上市公司股票超过2 0亿元。 4月7日，清明假期后第一个交易日，亚太股市跟跌，日经2 2 5指数和韩国综合指数均一度触发 熔断。A股三大指数也集体回调。市场全天成交额约1 . 6 2万亿元，较上一交易日增加0 . 4 6万亿 元。 对此，中信证券政策研究首席分析师于翔认为， A股的调整更多是受到海外悲观情绪的带 动 ，实际上并没有那么悲观。 美国的宽松政策可能在今年年底到明年上半年出现，与中国宽松 周期重叠。其认为，当前的调整是一个布局的时间点。尽管避险情绪仍然存在，但从股票投资 的角度来看，估值是核心因素，他建议投资者关注股票资产配置。 此前， 中央汇金、中国诚通、中国国新 先后发布公告称出手增持中国股票资产，坚决维护资 本市场平稳运行，并表示坚决当好长期资本、耐心资本、 ...

Group 1: REITs and Data Centers - The first data center REIT, Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT, has been accepted for review on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, attracting significant investor attention due to its business model and asset characteristics [4]. Group 2: Defense and AI - Kosi Technology (688788.SH) is positioned as a leader in AI and unmanned equipment for military applications, with a strong focus on AI command and control systems, having accumulated over 20 years of core data and experience [5][6]. - The company has invested over 1 billion yuan in R&D, with a team of over 400 people dedicated to AI and military applications, indicating significant growth potential in both military and civilian sectors [6]. Group 3: Healthcare - Meinian Health (002044.SZ) is leveraging AI to enhance efficiency and reduce costs in the health checkup industry, with over 600 branches and a leading position in the number of annual health checkups [7][8]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 10.826 billion yuan, 12.099 billion yuan, and 13.098 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding net profits of 326 million yuan, 617 million yuan, and 813 million yuan [8]. Group 4: Banking - Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (601077.SH) is expected to benefit from the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle, with projected net profit growth rates of 5.72%, 5.99%, and 6.53% from 2025 to 2027 [9]. - China Merchants Bank (600036.SH) has shown resilience with a return to profit growth in 2024, maintaining a leading position in the industry [10]. Group 5: Carbon Market and Construction - The national carbon market is expanding, with significant implications for the steel, cement, and aluminum industries, as companies adapt to new carbon pricing mechanisms [11]. - Key players in these sectors, such as Baosteel and China Aluminum, are expected to benefit from the transition to greener production methods [11]. Group 6: Coal Industry - China Shenhua Energy (H) has seen an increase in long-term investment interest, with a recent stake acquisition by Swiss Life Insurance, reflecting a reevaluation of the coal sector's value [14][15]. - The company has a low debt ratio of 23.4% and plans to distribute 44.9 billion yuan in cash dividends in 2024, indicating strong cash flow and dividend capacity [15][16]. Group 7: Chemicals and Materials - Sanwei Chemical (002469.SZ) reported a significant acceleration in Q4 performance, with a high dividend payout ratio of 99%, making it an attractive investment [21]. - China Jushi (600176.SH) achieved a revenue of 15.856 billion yuan in 2024, with a strong performance in Q4, indicating resilience in the fiberglass market [22][23]. Group 8: Consumer Goods - Nongfu Spring (09633.HK) reported stable growth with a revenue of 42.896 billion yuan in 2024, driven by strong brand value and product innovation [30]. - The company is expected to see net profits grow by 15.6%, 15.0%, and 16.0% from 2025 to 2027, maintaining its market leadership [30]. Group 9: Textile and Apparel - Shenzhou International (02313.HK) reported a revenue of 28.66 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit increase of 37%, indicating strong demand and operational efficiency [31].

金融工程 | 金工定期报告 金融工程 证券研究报告 在当前市场中，分析师报告数量众多，以行业报告为例，每周通常有超过 500 篇的报告。而阅读这些报告通常要花费大量的时间和成本。针对这一 需求，我们利用 DeepSeek-V3 大模型的总结能力对分析师行业报告进行智 能总结和整合，提炼出核心观点和关键信息。 利用大模型衡量景气度 行业研究报告通常提供分析师对行业趋势的深入分析与总体评价，但其应 用性较弱，主要有两个原因。首先，行业评级是行业研报中的标准化输出， 但其并非连续指标，通常仅分为三类，缺乏足够的区分度。因此，分析师 细微的态度和用词变化可能不会导致行业评级的调整。其次，不同证券公 司采用的行业分类标准并不一致，这些差异使得行业比较变得困难。 大模型普及之前，并不容易解决这些问题，而大模型的应用可能为此提供 更有效的支持。为了深入挖掘行业研报的信息，我们对其进行了进一步的 整理与标准化。我们构造了一个能够提取行业研报所涉具体中信一级、二 级行业名称以及对应行业景气度的提示词，并使用 DeepSeek-V3 模型，将 研报摘要作为输入文本得到该研报所属行业、景气度等指标结果。 最新行业研报文本景气度 我 ...

证券研究报告 宏观 大消费需求初现暖意 华泰研究 2025 年 3 月 16 日│中国内地 国内周报 研究员 易峘 evayi@htsc.com 研究员 吴宛忆 SAC No. S0570524090005 SFC No. BVN199 wuwanyi@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 研究员 常慧丽，PhD SAC No. S0570520110002 SFC No. BJC906 changhuili@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 联系人 王洺硕，CFA，PhD wangmingshuo@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 一周概览 整体而言，相较于去年春节假期后消费需求及价格指标明显走弱，今年部分 消费量价有边际企稳的积极迹象，或部分受气温回暖提振：上周二手房成交 同比仍在高位、尤其一线城市在高基数下继续回升，或显示大城市居民购房 需求偏强；同时，3 月首周汽车销售额同比回升，上周市内出行活动同比亦 走强。复工方面行业分化加剧，部分工业品价格亦有上行：制造业生产整体 回暖，但建筑钢材成交量同比走弱，春节后铜价/铝价持续上行，光伏产业链 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to exceed that of the CSI 300 index in the next six months [25]. Core Insights - The government has set a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, maintaining a balance between short-term stability and long-term transformation, reflecting a pragmatic yet challenging policy stance [1]. - The fiscal deficit is projected at 5.66 trillion yuan, with a deficit rate of around 4%, marking a historical high for the two sessions, which aligns with the direction of a more proactive fiscal policy [2]. - The issuance of special bonds and local government bonds is expected to reach 6.2 trillion yuan this year, significantly higher than the previous year's total of 4.9 trillion yuan, indicating an increase in effective fiscal spending [3]. - The monetary policy is characterized as "moderately loose," with expectations for potential reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates throughout the year [4]. - CPI is projected to show a "high-low-high" trend throughout the year, with an expected year-end CPI increase of around 1.2% [12]. - PPI is anticipated to narrow its decline throughout the year, with a forecasted annual decrease of -1.2% [14]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Policy - The government work report emphasizes a combination of "expansive fiscal and monetary policies" to stabilize growth expectations [1][4]. - The fiscal policy aims to enhance domestic demand through increased public spending and special bond issuance [2][3]. Inflation and Price Trends - February 2025 CPI showed a year-on-year decrease of -0.7%, with core CPI also negative for the first time since January 2021 [11]. - The CPI is expected to rise later in the year due to strong growth policies and increased consumer spending [12]. Trade and Export Performance - Exports in the first two months of 2025 increased by 2.3% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 8.4%, indicating a mixed trade environment [15]. - The impact of U.S. tariffs on exports has not yet fully materialized, suggesting resilience in certain sectors [17]. Market Performance - The REITs market experienced a limited rebound, with the CSI REITs index up by 1.14% [18]. - Market liquidity has decreased, with average daily trading volume dropping to 787 million yuan [19].

Macroeconomic News - The State Council's Tariff Commission announced a 100% tariff on certain imported goods from Canada, including canola oil, oilcake, and peas, effective March 20, 2025 [1] - Canada plans to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles starting October 1, 2024, and a 25% tariff on Chinese steel and aluminum products from October 22, 2024, which China views as discriminatory and a violation of WTO rules [1][2] - The Ministry of Commerce of China expressed strong dissatisfaction with Canada's unilateral measures and initiated an anti-discrimination investigation, concluding that Canada's actions constitute discriminatory restrictions [2][3] Industry and Company News - Eastroc Beverage announced a revenue of 15.839 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 40.63%, and a net profit of 3.327 billion yuan, up 63.09% [13] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.5 yuan per share, totaling 1.3 billion yuan [13] - Eastroc Beverage also announced plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [14] Real Estate and Urban Development - The Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development stated that the minimum height standard for residential buildings will be adjusted to no less than 3 meters [9] - The ministry is working on reforms to stabilize the real estate market, including the acquisition of existing residential properties and improving foundational systems for real estate development and sales [10] - Urban renewal projects will include old residential areas built before 2000, with a focus on improving living conditions and community facilities [11] Financial and Securities - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 151,000 in February, falling short of the expected 160,000 [6] - Nasdaq plans to offer 24-hour trading on its stock exchange, pending regulatory approval, aiming to enhance trading flexibility [8] Investment Strategies - CITIC Securities highlighted the growth potential in the humanoid robot market, suggesting that companies involved in drive control systems could see significant opportunities as humanoid robots begin mass production [19] - Haitong Securities noted a recent phase of foreign capital returning to the Chinese market, particularly favoring technology stocks [20]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of two significant events on the A-share market: the opening of the Two Sessions and the escalation of the US-China tariff conflict. It highlights the historical performance of various sectors during and after the Two Sessions, suggesting potential investment opportunities in specific industries. Market Overview - A-shares experienced a mixed performance with over 4,000 stocks rising, particularly in the semiconductor and military sectors [1][2] - The trading volume in the market decreased significantly, with total transactions falling below 1.5 trillion [2] - The military, semiconductor, and precious metals sectors led the gains in the market [2] Two Sessions Impact - The Two Sessions are scheduled from March 5 to March 11, with historical data indicating that markets typically experience volatility followed by upward trends, especially in small-cap growth stocks [3][4] - Small-cap indices like the CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 saw increases of over 1% today, confirming the trend of small-cap stocks outperforming [4] Tariff Conflict - The US announced a 10% tariff on all Chinese goods, citing fentanyl concerns, prompting China to respond with its own tariffs on certain US imports starting March 10 [5][6] - Analysts suggest that the tariff measures may shift market preferences towards value and dividend stocks, while the absence of further tariff announcements could benefit growth stocks in the short term [7] Investment Strategy - Historical analysis shows that sectors such as TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and consumer goods have a high probability of performing well during the Two Sessions, with specific probabilities of 60% for TMT and 70% for beauty and personal care sectors [10] - Post-Two Sessions, the consumer sector, particularly home appliances, has a 70% probability of rising [10][12] - The article emphasizes a balanced investment approach focusing on technology, consumer, and dividend stocks, particularly in sectors showing signs of recovery and policy support [13][15]

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 贺骁束 hexiaoshu@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 今年春节呈现返乡大年的特征，按照交通部2月下旬发布的数据， 2025年1月旅客周转量同比增长 17.6%。从城市拥堵指数来看，节后开复工情况平稳推进，2月最后一周开复工节奏的影响应接近释放完毕。 截至2月28日，全国39城高峰拥堵延时指数录得1.80，相当于节前倒数第二周（1.13-1.17）均值的 102.0%。2月最后一周（2.24-2.28）地铁客运量相当于节前倒数第二周（1.13-1.17）均值的97.1%。 第二， 2月工业部门开工率农历同比涨跌互现，钢铁、汽车等重要部门开工率同比正增长。截至2月27日、 28日（正月三十、二月初一），全国247家高炉开工率（期末值，下同）相较去年农历同期（二月初一）增 长2.7pct。苯乙烯开工率相较去年农历同期（正月三十）增长18.1pct。PVC开工率相较去年农历同期（二 月初一）回落2.2pct。PTA相较去年农历同期（正月三十）同比回落3.9pct。山东地炼开工率相较去年农历 同期（正月三十）同比回落10.9pct。汽车半钢胎开工率较去年农历同期（正 ...

本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 花王生态工程股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）根据《上海证券交易所上 市公司自律监管指引第3号—行业信息披露》之《第八号—建筑》的相关规定， 现将2024年第四季度主要经营数据（未经审计）公告如下： 一、新签项目合同数量及金额 2024年第四季度，公司及子公司新签施工业务合同及规划设计合同共39项， 合计金额1,786.07万元。 证券代码：603007 证券简称：ST 花王 公告编号：2025-020 花王生态工程股份有限公司 关于 2024 年第四季度主要经营数据的公告 2025年1月27日 | 项目类型 | 咨询服务合同 | 规划设计合同 | 合计 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合同数量（项） | 4 | 35 | 39 | | 合同金额（万元） | 97.87 | 1,688.20 | 1,786.07 | 二、本年累计签订项目合同数量及金额 2024年度公司及控股子公司累计签订施工业务合同及规划设计合同共190项， 累计金额为10,268.6 ...