锌周报 高慧 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 2026 年 1 月 19 日 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 市场情绪反复切换 锌价高位宽幅震荡 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/ 8 上周沪锌主力期价冲高回落。宏观面，特朗普称对欧洲 8 国 加 10%关税，拖累市场风险偏好。国内 12 月新增社融好于预 期，央行释放降息降准信号，货币宽松预期利好经济修复。 基本面看，LME 称 4 月 14 日不接受个别品牌仓单注册，据悉 该类品牌或因审核材料问题而被限制，补交材料或审后可解 除限制，且 12 月 LME 韩国仓库金属特殊高纯度锌库存仅 625 吨，实质性影响有限。国内北方矿山生产淡季，且受前期进 口亏损积压影响，进 ...

消息面上，据中钨在线1月16日最新监测数据，钨产业链核心产品价格继续上涨，再创新高。其中， 65%黑钨精矿价格突破50万元大关，报51万元/标吨，较年初涨10.87%;国内APT(仲钨酸铵)价格报75万 元/吨，较年初涨11.94%；且钨粉价格突破1200元，报价1210元/公斤，较年初涨12.04%。 智通财经APP在《钨价强势突破50万元大关，佳鑫国际资源（03858）年内市值或有望升至千亿？》中 指出，从2025年到2027年，佳鑫国际资源的归母净利润或有超10倍的增长幅度，佳鑫国际资源也由此切 换为成长股，鉴于其业绩的高爆发性以及纯钨矿标的的稀缺性，若给予其2026年30倍的估值，对应佳鑫 国际资源2026年市值或有望升至千亿级别，较当前市值仍有3倍的成长空间。 智通财经APP获悉，佳鑫国际资源(03858)再涨超7%，截至发稿，涨4.93%，报74.5港元，成交额3170.19 万港元，总市值已近350亿港元。 ...

2026年01月19日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：印尼言论反复扰动情绪，镍价宽幅震荡运行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：盘面锚定矿端矛盾，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：现货采买放量，关注供给端扰动 | 4 | | 工业硅：逢高布空为主 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注消息面影响 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 19 日 镍：印尼言论反复扰动情绪，镍价宽幅震荡运行 不锈钢：盘面锚定矿端矛盾，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 141,350 | -5,400 | 2,260 | 8,500 | 26,66 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened slightly lower on January 19, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.76% at 26,641.6 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.77% at 5,777.07 points, the State-Owned Enterprises Index down 0.76% at 9,151.07 points, and the Red Chip Index down 0.4% at 4,122.65 points [1] - Major tech stocks experienced declines, including Alibaba down 2.53%, Tencent down 0.65%, JD.com down 0.53%, Xiaomi down 1.29%, NetEase down 0.83%, Meituan down 1.2%, Kuaishou down 1.53%, and Bilibili down 2.69% [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector was active, with Zijin Mining rising over 3%, while the lithium battery sector saw most stocks increase, with BYD rising over 1% [1] - Some domestic property stocks fell, with Country Garden down over 10%, and the biopharmaceutical sector opened lower, with Tigermed down over 2% [1] Company News - China Shenhua (01088.HK) expects coal sales volume in 2025 to be 431 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4% [2] - New China Life Insurance (01336.HK) anticipates cumulative original insurance premium income in 2025 to reach 195.899 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15% [3] - Yongjia Group (03322.HK) projects a revenue growth rate of approximately 16% for its high-end fashion retail business in the fourth quarter of 2025 [4] - Ronshine China (03301.HK) expects total contract sales in 2025 to be approximately 3.777 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 50.96% [5] - Tianhong International Group (02678.HK) issued a profit warning, expecting a net profit increase of about 60% for the 2025 fiscal year due to a recovery in domestic and international market orders [5] - Qizhi Group (00917.HK) anticipates turning a profit in 2025, with net profit estimated between 270 million to 330 million yuan, compared to a loss of 1.663 billion yuan in the previous year [5] - October Rice Field (09676.HK) issued a profit warning, expecting adjusted net profit of approximately 550 million to 590 million yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 57.6% to 69.1% [5] - China Boton (03318.HK) issued a profit warning, expecting goodwill impairment losses of no less than approximately 750 million yuan for its tobacco flavor business in 2025 [5] Strategic Insights - Guojin Securities suggests that the Hong Kong stock market is entering a "spring market" at the beginning of 2026, likely to continue until mid-year, driven by domestic and international easing expectations and policy collaboration [9] - Galaxy Securities anticipates narrow fluctuations in the Hong Kong stock market due to reduced short-term interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve and increased global geopolitical uncertainties [9] - GF Securities views the chemical industry as a typical cyclical sector, predicting a "dawn" phase for the chemical industry amid capital expenditure growth turning negative and a focus on domestic demand expansion [9]

Market Performance - The A-share market showed mixed performance this week, with the overall index rising by 0.49%. The Sci-Tech 50 index led the gains with an increase of 2.58%, while the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and Shanghai Composite Index recorded declines [1][6]. Policy Focus - The State Council emphasized the need to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, supporting new business models and enhancing service quality to stimulate domestic demand [2][8]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is working to create a market environment conducive to long-term investment, focusing on deepening public fund reforms and expanding channels for long-term capital [2][8]. - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates by 0.25 percentage points, signaling a coordinated effort to support the economy and provide financial backing for the new five-year plan [3][9]. Industry Events - Micron Technology announced a strategic acquisition of Powerchip's P5 wafer fab in Taiwan for $1.8 billion, aimed at enhancing production capacity amid rising demand in the storage chip market [3][9]. - The China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC) is focusing on the aerospace defense industry and internationalization, aiming to enhance equipment performance and economic efficiency [4][10]. Market Outlook - The long-term trend for the A-share market remains bullish, supported by favorable macroeconomic policies and expected inflows of long-term capital from insurance funds and foreign investments [11]. - The government plans to invest trillions in urban renewal projects during the new five-year plan, focusing on infrastructure updates and old community renovations [12]. Fund Manager Insights - The A-share market is experiencing structural differentiation, with the Sci-Tech index leading while the Shanghai Composite index slightly declines. The total trading volume exceeded 3 trillion yuan [12]. - Key investment opportunities include sectors related to AI applications, semiconductor equipment, and cyclical industries like non-ferrous metals and power equipment, which are expected to benefit from supply-demand mismatches and policy support [12].

上周市场继续上行，但下半周融资保证金比例上调、商业航天等主题回调等事件催化下投资者情绪有所回 落，当前A股风险溢价回落到区间下沿，从过往来看进一步向下突破（即风险偏好进一步修复）需要基本 面配合或强增量资金，当前两者能见度均不高，但当前政策取向积极、资本市场内在稳定性增强、投资者 情绪不弱，预计市场短期进入震荡区间，结构上开始分化，主题投资与景气投资均有演绎空间，配置上： 1）主题投资关注潜在扩散方向，如国产算力、人形机器人、脑机接口、AI应用等；2）景气投资继续关注 供需双向改善的新能源链、存储、部分化工、大众消费品、工程机械等。 上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 中信证券：告别喧嚣，回归业绩 融资保证金的调整并不影响市场震荡上行的大方向，但会影响结构。主题板块博弈加剧，纯靠叙事和资金 接力驱动的单边趋势行情结束。步入年报预告期，业绩线索的权重重新开始上升。ETF的巨额赎回属于逆 周期调节的一部分，也给配置型资金提供了从容"上车"的窗口。配置上，好的组合应该是体验好、阻力小 且抗焦虑的，这是围绕"资源+传统制造定价权重估"为基础（化工、有色、电力设备 ...

责任编辑：磐石 中信建投研报指出，开年以来跨年行情愈演愈烈，在本周主动降温后热点出现调整。复盘以往案例，此 举的目的是抑制疯牛可能产生的短期严重后果，长期大基调仍然较为积极，并且此次政策的实施更加具 有成熟度和前瞻性。整体来看，本次主动降温不影响跨年行情的整体格局，但是此前局部过热的情况可 能会得到缓解，资金交易的方向或将出现一些变化。从行业配置来看，AI算力、有色金属、创新药和 汽车有较为明显的景气催化，前期市场热点商业航天和AI应用可能阶段性调整，可以关注其他主题线 索如特高压、脑机接口、可控核聚变等。 财经频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> ...

中信证券：告别喧嚣，回归业绩 融资保证金的调整并不影响市场震荡上行的大方向，但会影响结构。主题板块博弈加剧，纯靠叙事 和资金接力驱动的单边趋势行情结束。步入年报预告期，业绩线索的权重重新开始上升。ETF的巨额赎 回属于逆周期调节的一部分，也给配置型资金提供了从容"上车"的窗口。配置上，好的组合应该是体验 好、阻力小且抗焦虑的，这是围绕"资源+传统制造定价权重估"为基础（化工、有色、电力设备和新能 源）构建组合的优势。在此基础上，可逢低增配非银（证券、保险），同时通过部分服务消费品种（如 免税、航空等）或高景气品种（半导体设备等）增强收益。 国泰海通：主题轮动加快，聚焦国产半导体与电力 上周证监会提出严肃查处过度炒作乃至操纵市场等违法违规行为，坚决防止市场大起大落。近期涨 幅较大且引发投资者热议的商业航天/GEO等主题炒作回归理性。国内千问/豆包等模型产品迭代加速拉 动国产算力需求，台积电资本开支指引超预期，国家电网加码"十五五"投资等成为新催化，交易监管有 助于引导市场行稳致远，主题轮动节奏加快，看好具备强需求支撑且产业催化密集的低位科技方向，如 国产算力、新型电网、机器人(300024)、内需消费。 "春躁 ...

Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. Core Views - The geopolitical situation is escalating due to Trump's tariff announcements, affecting market risk - appetite across various asset classes. [5][15][17] - Different markets are in various states, with some facing supply - demand imbalances, while others are influenced by policy changes and seasonal factors. [2][24][30] Summary by Category Financial News and Comments Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed Chair candidate Hasset is out, and Trump's tariff announcement boosts gold's safe - haven appeal. Gold is expected to be bullish in the short - term, and there is an opportunity to go long on the gold - silver ratio. [12][13] Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's tariff on European countries over Greenland raises geopolitical risks, and the US dollar index is expected to rise in the short - term. [15][18] Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Geopolitical risks and uncertainty about the new Fed Chair lead to high - level oscillations in the US stock market during the earnings season. [22] Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations. Bond market rebound momentum will weaken, with a short - term oscillatory trend and a bearish long - term outlook. [24][25] Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Regulators are cooling the stock market, and the spring rally needs new catalysts. The long - position strategy for stock indices can be maintained. [26] Commodity News and Comments Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The port coke spot market is weak. The spot price is supported by downstream restocking, but the upward momentum of the futures is limited, with a short - term oscillatory trend. [28] Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Indonesian low - calorie steam coal prices are stable. Considering the cold wave in February, coal consumption is expected to rise, and coal prices are expected to remain flat. [30] Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Congo (DRC) restarts a large - scale iron ore export project. Iron ore prices are expected to continue the oscillatory trend due to high inventory and weak demand. [31][32] Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Steel production and inventory data show that supply - demand contradictions are accumulating. Steel prices may be strong in the short - term but face high inventory risks later. [35][37] Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - US biofuel policy and China - Canada trade agreements affect the oil market. Palm oil has short - term long - position opportunities, soybean oil can be a long - position variety, and rapeseed oil should be observed. [38][41] Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Indian sugar production is increasing, and demand is recovering. International sugar prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, and domestic sugar prices are expected to oscillate. [44][45] Agricultural Products (Cotton) - US cotton export sales are strong, but the upward momentum of the external market is limited. Domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate and adjust before the Spring Festival. [51][52] Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - South American soybean harvest is promising, and domestic soybean meal supply is excessive. The May contract of soybean meal will remain weak. [53] Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - There are issues in some copper mines. Macro - level factors weaken, and copper prices are expected to oscillate at high levels. [57][58] Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Supply disruptions and demand support lead to a situation where lithium carbonate prices are likely to rise. Look for long - position opportunities after the position and volatility stabilize. [62][63] Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - LME's decision has a limited impact on lead. Lead fundamentals are weakening, and a short - selling strategy is recommended. [65][66] Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Macro - sentiment weakens, but zinc fundamentals are not significantly weak. Zinc prices may oscillate and adjust in the short - term. [70] Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Nickel supply is expected to shrink, and prices are likely to rise. Look for long - position opportunities on dips. [72][73] Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - Tin price fluctuations intensify. Pay attention to customs data, processing fees, and consumer recovery. [77][78] Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - With the decline of risk premiums, LPG prices are expected to oscillate horizontally. [80] Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - EU carbon prices are rising, with a short - term oscillatory and strong trend. [81][82] Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US oil rig count increases, and the short - term upward momentum of oil prices is expected to weaken. [83][84]

智通财经APP获悉，银河证券发布研究报告称，展望未来，美联储短期内降息预期降低，全球地缘政治 不确定性加剧，预计港股窄幅震荡。配置方面，建议关注以下板块：(1)科技板块仍是中长期投资主 线，受益于产业链涨价、国产化替代、AI应用加速推进等多重利好。(2)消费板块有望持续受益于政策 支持，后续需关注政策落地力度及消费数据改善情况。(3)地缘政治局势紧张加剧，贵金属等避险资产 有望受益。 海外方面，美国2025年12月CPI同比上涨2.7%，核心CPI上涨2.6%，均与前值持平。美国11月PPI同比增 长3%，预估增长2.7%。美国上周初请失业金人数下降9000人至19.8万人，显著低于市场预期21.5万人， 为去年11月以来最低水平。美联储政策分歧仍存，但部分官员表态偏鹰，美联储降息预期下降。国内方 面，2025年我国外贸进出口达45.47万亿元，同比增长3.8%，连续9年保持增长。2025年我国社会融资规 模增量累计为35.6万亿元，比上年多3.34万亿元。2025年12月末的M2-M1剪刀差是4.7个百分点，较上月 的3.1个百分点有所扩大。 上周港股行情表现：(1)上周(1月12日至1月16日)，全球主要 ...