作者简介： 赵 伟， 经济学博士，申万宏源证券首席经济学家，上海申银万国证券研究所有限公司副总经 理，中国证券业协会首席经济学家委员会委员，中国首席经济学家论坛理事 侯倩楠 （通信作者），管理学博士，申万宏源研究所宏观分析师 屠 强， 申万宏源研究所资深高级宏观分析师 摘要 ： 本文立足纵深推进全国统一大市场背景，系统探讨眼下"内卷"现象的成因、影响与 政策应对。研究指出，本轮"内卷"核心表现为PPI长期负增长及中下游产能利用率偏低，挤压企 业盈利、阻碍产业升级。深层根源是经济转型期新旧动能分化，叠加地方政府为追求GDP和财 政收入的同质化无序竞争。破解困境的对策包括：供给侧通过产量调控、淘汰落后产能优化产业 结构，提升产品质量以修复价格、增强竞争力；需求侧大力发展居民服务消费，借财政补贴与社 保完善释放消费潜力，同时引导就业从制造业向服务业转移，实现供需结构适配。本文贡献在 于，系统论证"反内卷"政策与经济高质量发展的内在联系，为相关部门优化产业结构、激发市 场活力提供理论依据与实践方向。 本文来源《新金融》2025年第12期 全文内容 综合整治"内卷式"竞争： 背景、成因、影响及应对 一 引言 近年来，" ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "involution" in the Chinese economy, highlighting its causes, impacts, and policy responses, emphasizing the need for structural reforms to enhance economic quality and stability [3][5][6]. Group 1: Causes and Impacts of Involution - The current "involution" is characterized by long-term negative growth in the Producer Price Index (PPI) and low capacity utilization rates in mid- and downstream industries, which squeeze corporate profits and hinder industrial upgrades [3][5]. - The deep-rooted causes of this "involution" include the differentiation of old and new economic drivers during the economic transition period and the chaotic competition among local governments pursuing GDP and fiscal revenue [5][6]. - The "involution" phenomenon has created a spiral contraction cycle of "price-income-consumption," severely restricting healthy economic development and transformation [5][6]. Group 2: Policy Responses and Recommendations - To address the "involution," policies should focus on both supply and demand sides, combining growth stabilization with reform promotion, which benefits both the present and the long term [6][11]. - Supply-side measures include production adjustment, elimination of backward production capacity, and improving product quality to restore prices and enhance competitiveness [6][11]. - Demand-side strategies should promote resident service consumption through fiscal subsidies and social security improvements to unleash consumption potential, while guiding employment from manufacturing to services [6][11]. Group 3: Evolution of Anti-Involution Policies - Since mid-2024, high-level meetings have consistently addressed the need to combat "involutionary" competition, with significant policy decisions made to regulate local government and corporate behaviors [7][8]. - The 2025 government work report outlined specific actions to establish a unified national market and comprehensively address "involutionary" competition [8][11]. - The current anti-involution policies are characterized by a higher stance, broader coverage, and stronger synergy compared to previous supply-side reforms, with a focus on both local governments and enterprises [11][12]. Group 4: Macroeconomic Context and Industry Characteristics - The macroeconomic environment is under pressure from continuously declining prices, with the PPI experiencing negative growth for 33 consecutive months, and industrial capacity utilization rates at historical lows [14][16]. - The profitability of industrial enterprises is under significant pressure, with many industries, particularly in the mid- and downstream sectors, experiencing negative profit growth [16][19]. - The "involution" is more pronounced in mid- and downstream industries, where the competition has intensified, leading to a decline in profitability and increased cost pressures [19][21]. Group 5: Structural Issues and Future Directions - The article emphasizes the need for structural reforms to break the cycle of "price-income-consumption" contraction, advocating for a shift from an investment-driven to an innovation-driven economy [20][42]. - The service sector is identified as a key area for absorbing employment and addressing structural unemployment, with significant potential for growth in service consumption [42][43]. - Policies should focus on enhancing service sector development, improving social security systems, and optimizing service industry regulations to stimulate demand and support economic transformation [37][42].

南华期货焦煤焦炭2026年度展望 ——终端需求弹性缺失下的价格僵局 张泫（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022723） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月23日 第一章 观点概要 【核心观点】展望2026年，国内煤焦市场将继续在"能源保供稳价"的基础上，通过"环保限产"、"查超产"、"控 能耗"等行政手段约束过量供应、稳定价格预期，并为焦煤价格提供相对稳固的底部支撑，预计全年国内焦煤 产量将同比小幅收紧（-0.5%）。此外，焦煤进口规模有望进一步扩张，预计全年净进口量较今年增加 （+3.3%）。在总量扩张的同时，焦煤进口结构也将面临调整，具体表现为来自蒙古、俄罗斯、加拿大的焦 煤进口增加，美国煤进口减少，澳煤份额则维持相对稳定。投资者需重点关注蒙煤进口规模扩大对国内焦煤 供需结构的冲击，以及澳煤作为海运市场的关键定价基准，其对国内焦煤价格反弹空间的估值约束。焦炭方 面，我们认为2026年焦化行业的利润修复面临双重制约。一方面，钢材出口监管趋严与"反内卷"政策共同作 用，或将削弱我国钢材的国际价格优势，进而拖累短期出口增速；另一方面，国内房地产、基建等传统内需 领域难有起色，黑色终端需求 ...

证券之星消息，12月23日煤炭开采板块较上一交易日下跌0.05%，新大洲A领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3919.98，上涨0.07%。深证成指报收于13368.99，上涨0.27%。煤炭开采板块个股涨跌见下表： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 从资金流向上来看，当日煤炭开采板块主力资金净流出2.59亿元，游资资金净流入5547.39万元，散户资 金净流入2.03亿元。煤炭开采板块个股资金流向见下表： ...

来源：中国新闻网 编辑：熊思怡 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 12月21日4时30分，黑龙江丰源矿业有限公司大通沟煤矿发生透水事故，5人被困。 事故发生后，鸡西市立即成立联合救援指挥部，开展紧急救援。 目前，后续相关工作正在有序进行中。(完) 黑龙江大通沟煤矿透水事故救援结束 5人遇难 中新网哈尔滨12月23日电(记者 王妮娜)鸡西市滴道区人民政府23日发布消息，经全力救援，黑龙江丰源 矿业有限公司大通沟煤矿透水事故失联的5名人员，已全部找到，经确认均无生命体征，不幸遇难，救 援工作结束。 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 ...

2025年12月21日4时30分许，黑龙江丰源矿业有限公司大通沟煤矿发生透水事故，5人被困。 新华社哈尔滨12月23日电（记者王鹤、张涛）记者23日从黑龙江丰源矿业有限公司大通沟煤矿透水事故 现场采访了解到，经全力救援，本次事故中被困的5名受困人员陆续被找到，经确认，5人均无生命体 征，不幸遇难。目前，善后处置工作已全面展开，事故原因正在进一步调查。 （文章来源：新华社） ...

Group 1 - Zhongfu Industrial Co., Ltd. experienced a stock price increase of 5.06%, reaching 8.30 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 280 million CNY and a turnover rate of 0.87%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 33.266 billion CNY [1] - The company, established on January 28, 1997, and listed on June 26, 2002, operates in coal mining, thermal power generation, electrolytic aluminum, and deep processing of aluminum products, with its main business revenue composition being 94.76% from non-ferrous metals, 9.96% from electricity, 2.71% from coal, and 0.47% from other businesses [1] Group 2 - The fund "Shangyin Resource Selection Mixed Initiation A" (023448) holds 405,700 shares of Zhongfu Industrial, accounting for 3.33% of the fund's net value, making it the eighth largest holding [2] - The fund has a total scale of 21.9608 million CNY and has achieved a return of 67.28% since its inception on March 21, 2025 [2] Group 3 - The fund manager of "Shangyin Resource Selection Mixed Initiation A" is Lu Yang, who has a tenure of 11 years and 58 days, with the fund's total asset size being 926 million CNY [3] - During Lu Yang's tenure, the best fund return was 64.03%, while the worst return was -29.25% [3]

Group 1: Strategy Research - Global asset performance shows significant divergence, with developed European equities rising while emerging Asian equities decline. COMEX silver saw a weekly increase of 9.4%, with an annual increase exceeding 120%. The Federal Reserve has brought forward its interest rate cut expectations for 2026 [3][4][5] Group 2: Food and Beverage Research - Wuliangye held its 29th conference, emphasizing a pragmatic attitude and commitment to reform. The company aims to anchor its market share goals for 2026, maintaining a balance between volume and price, and focusing on product and channel collaboration to solidify its industry-leading position [3][8][9] Group 3: Oil and Chemical Research - Since Q4 2025, crude oil prices have been on a downward trend, with Brent crude closing at $59.68 per barrel as of December 18, 2025, a decrease of 12.43% since early September. Upstream oil and gas extraction companies are expected to face profit pressure, while refining businesses may see improved profitability due to expanded price differentials [3][11][12][14] Group 4: Automotive Research - The draft "Automotive Industry Price Behavior Compliance Guidelines" is expected to advance the anti-involution process in the automotive sector. This guideline aims to regulate pricing behaviors of automotive manufacturers and dealers, potentially alleviating price wars and improving profit margins for dealers [3][15][16][17]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Electric Power Investment Energy has increased by 49.36% this year, indicating strong market performance and investor interest [2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of December 23, the stock price rose by 2.04% to 28.05 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 62.876 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has shown significant gains over various time frames: 5.06% in the last 5 trading days, 6.33% in the last 20 days, and 25.84% in the last 60 days [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 22.403 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.72%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 6.40% to 4.118 billion CNY [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 11.815 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 4.550 billion CNY distributed over the last three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 11.29% to 27,100, while the average number of circulating shares per person increased by 12.72% to 82,831 shares [2]. - Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the fifth-largest circulating shareholder, holding 47.2447 million shares, an increase of 18.5055 million shares from the previous period [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that traditional state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are expected to receive clear guidance for transformation and growth in emerging businesses, driven by policy support and capital investment, which may enhance their profitability and long-term investment value [1][2] - The National State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) has announced that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, state-owned enterprises will actively undertake major national technological tasks and promote the "AI+" initiative, focusing on high value-added and high-tech industries [1][2] - The China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index, which tracks high dividend yield securities from SOEs, reflects the overall performance of these high dividend yield stocks, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 16.99% of the index [2][4] Group 2 - The National State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (159515) has shown a trading volume of 450.44 million yuan with a turnover rate of 9.47%, indicating a stable interest in dividend-paying assets in the current low-interest-rate environment [1][2] - The ETF has seen a growth of 298.21 million yuan in size and an increase of 360.00 million shares since the beginning of the month, highlighting the attractiveness of dividend assets in the current market [1][2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index include COSCO Shipping Holdings, Jizhong Energy, and Lu'an Environmental Energy, among others, with varying performance in terms of price changes [2][4]