Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the introduction of China's first mandatory national standard for energy storage batteries, GB 44240-2024, which will be implemented on August 1, 2025, focusing on safety requirements for lithium batteries in energy storage applications [6][5]. Group 1: Overview of the Forum - The 2025 User-Side Energy Storage and Battery Technology Forum was held in Shenzhen, attracting over 800 attendees to discuss key topics such as commercial energy storage, portable energy storage, and safety challenges in the industry [1]. Group 2: Introduction of GB 44240-2024 - GB 44240-2024 is the first mandatory national standard for energy storage batteries in China, differing from previous recommended standards [5][6]. - The standard aligns closely with international standards, with 80% similarity to European standards, and is primarily focused on safety considerations [6]. Group 3: Certification Process - The certification process for GB 44240 involves application, type testing, initial factory inspection, and post-certification supervision, with a certification cycle of five to six weeks, compared to six months for the previous GB/T 36276 standard [7]. - The standard requires different certification units for battery cells, modules, and systems based on their specifications and configurations [7]. Group 4: Testing Requirements - The standard outlines rigorous testing requirements for battery cells, including safety, environmental, and thermal runaway tests, with specific procedures and conditions for each test [11][19]. - Testing includes various conditions such as low pressure, temperature cycling, vibration, and overcharging, ensuring that batteries do not catch fire or explode under stress [13][15][17]. Group 5: Labeling and Documentation - Batteries must have clear labeling indicating safety usage lifespan and unique coding for traceability in case of incidents [22]. - The certification is valid for five years, with annual factory audits required, and any changes in product design or safety parameters must be reported for certification updates [8][26].

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Core Viewpoint - Huayou Cobalt has secured significant supply agreements in the lithium battery industry, reflecting a structural reshaping of supply and demand dynamics in the sector [2][4]. Group 1: Supply Agreements - On December 16, Huayou Cobalt announced a memorandum of understanding with an international client to supply 79,600 tons of ternary precursors [2]. - This marks the third major supply agreement in three months, following a contract with LG Energy for 76,000 tons of ternary precursors and 88,000 tons of ternary cathode materials from 2026 to 2030, and another with Chengdu Bamo for 127,800 tons of high-nickel ternary cathode materials from 2026 to 2035 [2]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The surge in orders for Huayou Cobalt is attributed to a structural contraction in supply, with inefficient capacities being phased out, while demand is driven by the need for long-range batteries in electric vehicles and emerging fields like low-altitude economy and humanoid robots [2][4]. - GGII data indicates that global shipments of ternary materials reached 580,000 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of over 20% [2]. Group 3: Competitive Advantage - Huayou Cobalt's competitive edge stems from its integrated "resource-smelting-materials" business model and global capacity planning [2][3]. - The company reported revenues of 58.941 billion yuan and a net profit of 4.216 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting year-on-year growth of 29.57% and 39.59%, respectively [2]. Group 4: Market Positioning - The company has established a factory in Hungary to connect with the European market, ensuring efficient integration of resources, smelting, and applications while mitigating trade barriers and compliance risks [5]. - As lithium prices stabilize, industry profits are shifting from lithium resources to cobalt and nickel resources, benefiting integrated enterprises like Huayou Cobalt [5].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is transitioning from a phase of rapid growth to one focused on efficiency, quality, and certainty, with equipment reliability becoming a key determinant of manufacturing capacity [1][5]. Group 1: Industry Trends - In the first ten months of 2025, China's total battery production reached 1,292.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 51.3%, with power battery shipments at 578.0 GWh, up 42.4% [5]. - By 2030, global shipments of new energy passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, and energy storage batteries are expected to exceed 2,000 GWh, nearly 700 GWh, and 1,400 GWh, respectively [5]. - The industry is facing structural challenges such as capacity oversupply, price competition, declining profit margins, and uncertainties in international trade [5]. Group 2: Role of Laser Technology - Laser technology has evolved to become a critical process in lithium battery manufacturing, with applications in laser welding, cutting, cleaning, and drying [6][7]. - Dazhu Laser has developed a comprehensive industrial laser system, including various types of high-power fiber lasers and supporting equipment, to provide complete laser welding solutions [7]. Group 3: Innovations in Manufacturing - The "flying welding" solution allows for systematic approaches to pushing production limits, enhancing efficiency and stability in the manufacturing process [8]. - Real-time monitoring systems for welding quality are becoming essential, utilizing optical sensors to detect defects and ensure consistent quality during production [9]. Group 4: Importance of Equipment Reliability - Equipment manufacturers must provide reliable, stable, and energy-efficient solutions to ensure production continuity and product consistency, which are critical for long-term cost management [11]. - Dazhu Laser emphasizes self-research in core components and aims for "delivery equals production" through digital twin technology [11]. Group 5: Future Challenges and Opportunities - As new battery technologies like solid-state and sodium-ion batteries emerge, equipment manufacturers will face challenges related to process unknowns and material sensitivities [12]. - The role of equipment is shifting from merely implementing existing processes to actively participating in technology definition and industrialization pathways [12].

期货下午茶·每日复盘 2025年12月19日 星期五 黑色 大商所调整焦煤唐山、天津交割库升贴水;Mysteel数据：日均铁水产量 同比减少2.86万吨，港口铁矿库存环比增加114万吨。 | 市场情绪仪表盘 ● 弱势 强势 ● ● 震荡 ® 震荡偏强 锂电化工领涨 | 油脂玻璃回调 | 今日关键词 7 碳酸锂两连阳 8 PTA巨量增仓 盘 马士基返红海 | ▽ 今日焦点 (多头明星) 碳酸锂2605 +3.86% GFEX Ic2605 Home Holly Home 光大期货:采矿证的注销更多是锂矿合规性开采问题的后续,并非对锂资源供给 的收缩。从近期市场情况来看,周度社会库存延续去化,库存周转天数周环比下 降0.5天至26.5天，近期本身海外资源扰动,视下窝矿山复产预期亦有转弱,导致 预期的利空因素并未如期体现。后续来看,如果江西锂矿项目复产叠加季节性淡 季因素，可能会导致去库速度放缓或至累库，届时价格仍有回调概率,但在强需 求预期下,下游备货意愿或也将表现相对较强,总体价格表现或易涨难跌,关注 复产节奏、排产环降幅度以及明年强需求是否能够得到验证。 | 今日热点资讯 航运 马士基一艘船舶近两年来首次穿越 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 碳酸锂 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 姓名：龙奥明 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 碳酸锂 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 19 日 碳酸锂日报 专业研究·创造价值 碳酸锂走强 摘要 【期货市场】主力合约 LC2605.GFE 收盘价 111400 元/吨，较前日 上涨 5240 元/吨（+4.94%），近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 【现货市场】碳酸锂现货价格为 97680 元/吨，较前日上涨 0.11%， 近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 【基差分析】当前基差为-12320 点，负基差（现货贴水），较前日 走弱 2630 点，近 10 个交易日基差整体走弱。 【仓单情况】碳 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery market is experiencing a bullish trend, with significant price increases in lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, indicating strong demand and limited supply [2]. Group 1: Market Trends - As of December 19, the price of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 101,500 yuan per ton, an increase of 300 yuan from the previous day, with overall market inventory dropping below 110,000 tons [2]. - Market sentiment is influenced by expectations of reduced lithium battery production in January, with some leading companies projected to cut production by 5 GWh, potentially decreasing lithium carbonate demand by approximately 3,000 tons per month [5]. - The environmental assessment for the Jiangxiawo lithium mine has been publicly released, suggesting that, in the best-case scenario, production resumption will be delayed until the second quarter, impacting lithium carbonate supply by 7,000 to 8,000 tons per month [5]. Group 2: Future Reports and Events - The company is offering pre-sales for various market research reports covering lithium carbonate and other related materials from 2025 to 2029, indicating a focus on long-term market trends and competitive strategies [8]. - A conference organized by the company is scheduled for March 19-20, 2026, in Changzhou, Jiangsu, which may provide further insights into industry developments [7].

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant growth in energy storage battery production, projecting a production of 620 GWh in 2025 and exceeding 960 GWh in 2026, representing a 55% increase [1] - The demand for additives, specifically VC, is expected to surge, with a projected requirement of 31,000 tons in 2025 and 52,000 tons in 2026, marking a 67% increase [1] - Global VC demand is forecasted to reach 66,000 tons in 2025 and 98,000 tons in 2026, reflecting a 47% growth [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - In 2026, the effective production capacity for VC is estimated at 115,000 tons, with total demand at 98,000 tons and total supply at 100,000 tons, indicating a market operating at 89% capacity [3] - Quarterly production rates are projected to fluctuate, with Q1 at 91%, Q2 at 85%, Q3 at 88%, and Q4 at 90%, showing a "V-shaped" trend due to new capacity coming online in Q2 [3] Market Outlook - The forecast for 2026 indicates that VC shipments will exceed 100,000 tons, with a slight surplus in Q2 and tight conditions in other quarters, leading to a potential price drop in Q2 but sustained high prices in subsequent quarters [5] - Under optimistic conditions, energy storage could exceed expectations with shipments surpassing 1,000 GWh, further increasing VC demand, and a supply gap may emerge in the second half of the year, keeping VC prices elevated [5]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 18, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures 2605 contract fell 0.79% to 106,160 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate rose 500 yuan/ton to 97,550 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price also rose 500 yuan/ton to 94,950 yuan/ton. The battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased 500 yuan/ton to 85,980 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt inventory remained at 15,636 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly output increased by 47 tons to 22,045 tons. Lithium extraction from spodumene increased by 60 tons to 13,804 tons, lithium extraction from lepidolite decreased by 50 tons to 2,826 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes increased by 20 tons to 3,095 tons, and lithium extraction from recycled materials increased by 17 tons to 2,320 tons. In December, the output of ternary materials is expected to decline by 7% to 78,280 tons, and the output of lithium iron phosphate is expected to decline by 1% to 410,000 tons. The weekly inventory decreased by 1,044 tons to 110,425 tons, with downstream inventory decreasing by 1,253 tons to 41,485 tons, other - link inventory increasing by 1,280 tons to 50,850 tons, and upstream inventory decreasing by 1,071 tons to 18,090 tons [3]. - The weekly inventory reduction rate has slowed down, and the positive factors have weakened marginally. If the lithium mine projects in Jiangxi resume production and the seasonal off - season factors come into play, the inventory reduction speed may slow down or turn into inventory accumulation, and prices may still face a callback. However, under the strong demand expectation, the downstream's willingness to stock up may also be relatively strong. Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm, the decline in production scheduling, and whether the strong demand next year can be verified [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 106,160 yuan/ton, down 2,460 yuan; the closing price of the continuous contract was 104,440 yuan/ton, down 2,380 yuan [5]. - Lithium Ore: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,326 US dollars/ton, up 6 US dollars; the price of lepidolite (Li2O:1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,825 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the price of lepidolite (Li2O:2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,825 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O:6% - 7%) was 10,425 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O:7% - 8%) was 11,800 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [5]. - Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 97,550 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 94,950 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 85,980 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 90,600 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 80,330 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, South Korea) was 10.48 US dollars/kg, up 0.03 US dollars [5]. - Other Products: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 170,500 yuan/ton, down 2,500 yuan. The price differences between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged. The prices of some ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium increased to varying degrees, while some remained unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: Charts show the price trends of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite with different Li2O contents, and amblygonite with different Li2O contents from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: Charts show the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate average prices, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide prices, and lithium hexafluorophosphate prices from 2024 to 2025 [11][13][16]. - Price Differences: Charts show the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and the basis from 2024 to 2025 [18][20][23]. - Precursors and Cathode Materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [26][27][30]. - Lithium Battery Prices: Charts show the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [32][35]. - Inventory: Charts show the weekly inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from April 30, 2025, to December 17, 2025 [37][39]. - Production Costs: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different sources such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [42].

Market Overview - The current state of the A-share market shows signs of high volatility, with major indices experiencing fluctuations at high levels since November, leading to investor uncertainty about the potential for a "cross-year market" [1] - The economic fundamentals have not shown significant improvement, and counter-cyclical policies are still in effect, resulting in a loose liquidity environment and a notable increase in risk appetite [4][7] Economic Indicators - The actual GDP growth for 2023 is projected at 5.4%, with nominal GDP growth at 4.16% [6] - The manufacturing PMI has remained below the 50 mark for eight consecutive months, indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector [7] - Social retail sales have been declining since June, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.2% reported [6][7] Policy Environment - A series of counter-cyclical policies have been implemented since September 2024, including interest rate cuts and increased fiscal support for infrastructure and real estate [7][8] - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary policies to enhance macroeconomic governance [8] Investment Dynamics - Incremental capital is entering the A-share market, driven by insurance funds and quantitative private equity, with insurance capital's market allocation reaching 5.59 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.49 trillion yuan from the end of 2024 [13][16] - The adjustment of risk factors for insurance companies is expected to bring over 100 billion yuan in new capital to the A-share market [16] Valuation Metrics - The current valuation of the A-share market is considered slightly high, with the 10-year PE-TTM percentile at 85.91% [19] - The risk premium, which measures the attractiveness of stocks relative to bonds, is at 54.01%, indicating that the overall valuation remains acceptable [20] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through the resistance line formed by the highs of 2007 and 2015, which may now serve as a support line for the current market trend [23] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy suggests focusing on growth sectors over dividend stocks, with key areas including technology, lithium batteries, non-ferrous metals, and innovative pharmaceuticals [26]