Core Viewpoint - The energy cooperation between China and Kazakhstan is becoming increasingly significant in the context of rapid changes in the global energy order, especially with the upcoming second China-Central Asia Summit providing new opportunities for collaboration [1][6]. Group 1: Strategic Importance of Cooperation - Kazakhstan's geographical advantages and rich hydrocarbon and uranium resources make it a crucial partner for China in ensuring energy security [3][4]. - Key areas of cooperation include the development of transportation and logistics routes, integrated construction of pipeline and railway infrastructure, modernization of refineries through innovative technologies, and the establishment of a secure digital energy corridor [3][4]. Group 2: Infrastructure Development - Kazakhstan's extensive pipeline network, comprising 15,255 kilometers of gas pipelines and 8,015 kilometers of oil pipelines, facilitates efficient energy transportation across the country and enhances cross-border energy trade [4]. - The construction of the International Transport Corridor across the Caspian Sea, which connects China to Europe, is expected to reduce transportation time to 20-25 days, thereby lowering logistics costs and increasing Kazakhstan's transit potential [3][4]. Group 3: Energy Sector Modernization - Kazakhstan's refineries in Atyrau, Shymkent, and Pavlodar can meet domestic needs and supply energy to neighboring countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [4]. - The energy sector can improve efficiency and profitability through innovation, unified infrastructure networks, and the creation of energy industry clusters, which will also attract Chinese investments [4]. Group 4: Nuclear and Green Technology Cooperation - Both countries emphasize the importance of deepening cooperation in the nuclear energy sector, necessitating a robust safety framework to ensure the success of large-scale projects [5]. - Establishing a unified digital security framework that encompasses both traditional and alternative energy sources is essential in the face of increasing cross-border risks [5]. Group 5: Educational and Technical Development - There is a pressing need to cultivate talent in key areas such as cybersecurity, critical infrastructure security, and energy industry safety to address emerging challenges [5]. - Developing modern educational programs and establishing joint training initiatives between Chinese and Kazakh experts will enhance technical and knowledge exchange [5].

Core Viewpoint - The oil and gas sector is experiencing significant price fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the recent airstrikes by Israel on Iran, which have raised concerns about oil supply disruptions in the Middle East [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of June 16, 2025, key stocks in the oil and gas sector have shown substantial gains, with Taishan Petroleum up 10.07%, Intercontinental Oil and Gas up 9.88%, and Heshun Petroleum up 8.17% [1]. - The Oil and Gas ETF (159697) has increased by 0.68%, marking its fourth consecutive rise, with a latest price of 1.03 yuan [1]. - Over the week leading to June 13, 2025, the Oil and Gas ETF has accumulated a rise of 4.48% [1]. Group 2: Price Trends - On June 13, 2025, WTI and Brent crude oil futures closed at $72.98 and $74.23 per barrel, respectively, reflecting increases of 16.7% and 14.9% since the beginning of the month [1]. - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that the oil price is expected to enter a high volatility phase due to potential declines in Iranian oil production and exports [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Outlook - The global oil demand is being impacted by the transition to electricity and gas, while supply from oil-producing countries is becoming increasingly coordinated and weaker [2]. - The oil price is projected to have a downward trend from 2025 to 2027, with a new equilibrium expected to be above $60 per barrel, driven by marginal costs and supply-side dynamics [2]. Group 4: Index Composition - The National Oil and Gas Index (399439) reflects the price changes of publicly listed companies in the oil and gas sector, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 66.48% of the index [2].

恒指低开0.42%，报23791.79点；恒生科技指数跌0.61%。药明生物跌3.6%，此前主要股东宣布配股；中 国石油涨1.2%，中国海油涨0.9%。 ...

于是一番扭捏拉扯，最后美帝靠着手段高明，拳头过硬，终于干死了金本位裸奔。虽然勾搭了一个石油，看起来好像锚定了石油，但问题是，产油多少 跟美元的发行量没有一毛钱的关系。实际上美元并没有锚，你以为是美债？呵呵，笑死了，美债现在余额37万亿美元，美元到底发了多少？美联储敢给 人查查吗？ 今年早些时候，马斯克异想天开，想去查美联储的账，结果最后自己都被踢出白宫，跟懂王在网上隔空互骂，感情破裂。虽然彼此也传出了有求和的意 思，但信任肯定是没有了，特马在政坛上永远回不到从前了。 每个大周期都是一个赖账的循环，周而复始。 当你弄明白这个道理，就会明白，在信用货币时代，哪里有什么通缩。遇到短暂的通缩周期，这就是上天给你捡钱的机会。这个时候如果选择了恐惧， 真的只能说一句，祝你幸福。 印钞机人人都有，但无脑无节制的印钞必然会直接干崩货币信用，结果就是本币没有人愿意用，国际结算中，别人不收你咋办？ 70年代美国好莱坞的明星甚至都开始耍大牌不收美元了，更受欢迎的是当时的南非兰特。因为美元不能直接兑换黄金了，但兰特可以啊，毕竟地球上的 黄金一半多都埋在南非地底下呢。 只不过后来FBI出面，发出著名的FBI WARNING，不肯接受美 ...

以伊冲突升级危及能源供应 市场备战高波动 金十数据6月16日讯，以色列对伊朗能源设施发动袭击后，中东供应风险加剧，原油市场正为价格进一 步飙升做准备。上周六，以色列为打击伊朗核计划发动袭击，暂时瘫痪了与伊朗最大气田南帕尔斯相连 的天然气加工设施，并瞄准了燃料储罐。 尽管此次袭击集中于伊朗国内能源系统而非其国际市场出 口，但周五原油价格已创三年来最大单日涨幅，交易商和分析师正为更大动荡做准备。虽然受到美国制 裁，但伊朗仍是欧佩克第三大产油国。其盟友也门胡塞武装持续袭扰红海船只，伊朗方面曾多次威胁封 锁波斯湾关键航运要道霍尔木兹海峡，但从未真正实施。咨询公司Rapidan Energy Advisers总裁、白宫 前能源官员鲍勃·麦克纳利表示："不断升级且可能旷日持久的冲突，及其向民用经济目标的蔓延，应会 在本周初为原油注入更多风险溢价。" 订阅原油市场资讯 +订阅 ...

Macro News - Guangzhou has announced a comprehensive cancellation of restrictions on real estate, including purchase limits, sales limits, and price limits, while also reducing down payment ratios and interest rates to stimulate housing consumption [2] - Starting November 2025, Chinese passport holders with valid Australian visas can enter New Zealand visa-free for up to three months [3] - The conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated, with Israel attacking Iranian energy facilities, raising concerns about energy security in the region [4] Financial and Securities - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 400 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on June 16, 2025, with a term of six months to maintain liquidity in the banking system [7] - As of the end of May, China's broad money supply (M2) stood at 325.78 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [8] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has imposed fines totaling nearly 77 million yuan on Xu Wenbin for manipulating stock prices [9] Industry and Company - Volcano Engine has reduced the usage cost of its "Doubao" product to one-third through "interval pricing," aiming to accelerate the application of intelligent agents in various business scenarios [10] - GAC Group has committed to ensuring the completion of dealer rebate payments within two months to support the healthy development of the automotive industry [11] - Kweichow Moutai has adjusted its 2024 profit distribution plan, increasing the cash dividend per share to 27.673 yuan, totaling 34.671 billion yuan in cash dividends [12] Upcoming Events - This week, new stocks include Guangxin Technology with a subscription code of 920037 and a price of 10 yuan per share, with a subscription limit of 950,000 shares [13] - Xintong Electronics has a subscription code of 001388, with a subscription limit of 12,000 shares [14] - Over 450 billion yuan worth of A-shares will be unlocked this week, with 48 stocks facing unlocks totaling 29.14 billion shares [16] Institutional Strategies - Huatai Securities indicates that the conflict between Israel and Iran has led to increased volatility in oil prices, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices rising by 16.7% and 14.9% respectively since the beginning of the month [18] - CITIC Securities notes that liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market continues to improve, presenting good opportunities for increasing positions amid potential overseas fluctuations [19]

固定收益 | 固定收益定期 美债回落，油价大涨 证券研究报告 海外经济跟踪周报 20250615 海外市场复盘（6.9-6.13） 本周欧美主要股指多数收跌，波动率上升。周一周二，中美贸易会谈召开， 美方官员释放会谈顺利有成效的信号，推动美股上涨；周五以色列袭击伊 朗，全球股市下挫。 美元和美债收益率下行，周五反弹。本周前四天，由于美国 CPI 和 PPI 通 胀低于预期、失业金申请人数超预期上升，市场降息预期升温，美元下跌； 并且美国国债标售稳健，美债收益率下行。周五中东局势升级，油价大涨 令通胀担忧上升，美元和美债收益率上行。 商品方面，中东局势推动油价和黄金上涨。中东冲突升级，加剧对石油供 应中断的担忧，尤其是担忧伊朗可能会袭击霍尔木兹海峡等主要石油航运 路线，油价大涨。避险情绪上升，黄金上涨。 海外基本面高频跟踪 总体景气度：美国小幅回升，德国继续降温。美国每周经济指数小幅回升， 德国每周经济指数继续下降。美国纽约联储 Nowcast、亚特兰大联储 GDPNow 对美国二季度 GDP 的预测小幅上调。 就业：失业金领取人数高于预期。美国初请失业金 24.8 万人，预期 24 万 人，或与学年结束有关。 ...

中东局势搅动全球能源市场。 据最新消息，当地时间6月14日，伊朗南部布什尔省两家炼油厂遭到以色列空袭，部分设施爆炸起火。这是以色列首 次袭击伊朗能源基础设施。 有分析称，此次袭击可能会进一步削弱伊朗摇摇欲坠的能源行业。中东紧张局势升级有可能会进一步引发全球原油 价格剧烈波动，美国原油价格周五一度飙涨14%。 交易市场也显示出交易员对油价飙升的担忧。大量"价外看涨期权"被交易，意味着许多人在对冲油价进一步上涨的 风险。其中成交量较大的期权是，如果油价在6月25日之前涨到85美元/桶以上就会获利的合约。WTI原油的看涨期权 与看跌期权之间的价格比值升至2022年3月以来最高，当时俄乌冲突爆发。 另外，美国与欧洲的巨大分歧也引发市场关注。据美媒报道，知情人士透露，美国拒绝欧洲降低俄罗斯石油价格上 限提议。分析指出，对投资者而言，这种政策分歧和市场波动的组合正在创造一个更加难以预测的能源市场环境。 以色列首次袭击伊朗能源基础设施 6月15日，据新华社消息，伊朗迈赫尔通讯社15日凌晨援引伊朗石油部发表的声明报道，位于德黑兰以北的沙赫兰储 油库和位于该市以南的燃料储存罐14日晚遭以色列袭击。由于两处储油设施内油量不多，火 ...

中东局势搅动全球能源市场。 据最新消息，当地时间6月14日，伊朗南部布什尔省两家炼油厂遭到以色列空袭，部分设施爆炸起火。这是以色列首 次袭击伊朗能源基础设施。 有分析称，此次袭击可能会进一步削弱伊朗摇摇欲坠的能源行业。中东紧张局势升级有可能会进一步引发全球原油 价格剧烈波动，美国原油价格周五一度飙涨14%。 交易市场也显示出交易员对油价飙升的担忧。大量"价外看涨期权"被交易，意味着许多人在对冲油价进一步上涨的 风险。其中成交量较大的期权是，如果油价在6月25日之前涨到85美元/桶以上就会获利的合约。WTI原油的看涨期权 与看跌期权之间的价格比值升至2022年3月以来最高，当时俄乌冲突爆发。 另外，美国与欧洲的巨大分歧也引发市场关注。据美媒报道，知情人士透露，美国拒绝欧洲降低俄罗斯石油价格上 限提议。分析指出，对投资者而言，这种政策分歧和市场波动的组合正在创造一个更加难以预测的能源市场环境。 以色列首次袭击伊朗能源基础设施 6月15日，据新华社消息，伊朗迈赫尔通讯社15日凌晨援引伊朗石油部发表的声明报道，位于德黑兰以北的沙赫兰储 油库和位于该市以南的燃料储存罐14日晚遭以色列袭击。由于两处储油设施内油量不多，火 ...

Core Viewpoint - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories shows a mixed trend, with 11 products experiencing price increases, 35 seeing declines, and 4 remaining stable in early June 2025 compared to late May 2025 [2]. Group 1: Price Changes in Major Categories - In the black metal category, prices for rebar, wire rod, and ordinary plates decreased by 1.0% to 1.7%, with rebar priced at 3111.1 yuan per ton [4]. - In the non-ferrous metal category, electrolytic copper saw a price increase of 0.4% to 78731.7 yuan per ton, while aluminum ingots decreased by 0.6% to 20203.3 yuan per ton [4]. - Chemical products experienced varied changes, with sulfuric acid increasing by 2.3% to 635.8 yuan per ton, while methanol decreased by 2.5% to 2137.0 yuan per ton [4]. Group 2: Energy and Coal Prices - In the petroleum and natural gas sector, liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices fell by 1.1% to 4264.2 yuan per ton, while gasoline prices increased by 1.1% to 8372.1 yuan per ton [4]. - Coal prices showed a decline, with anthracite coal dropping by 3.6% to 914.8 yuan per ton and coke decreasing by 5.6% to 1181.4 yuan per ton [4]. Group 3: Agricultural Products and Inputs - Among agricultural products, rice prices increased slightly by 0.2% to 4036.8 yuan per ton, while wheat prices decreased by 0.6% to 2415.3 yuan per ton [5]. - Fertilizer prices also saw a decline, with urea dropping by 1.4% to 1864.3 yuan per ton [5]. Group 4: Monitoring Methodology - The price monitoring includes data from over 2000 wholesalers, agents, and distributors across more than 300 trading markets in 31 provinces [7]. - The methodology involves various data collection techniques, including on-site price collection and electronic inquiries [8].