Investment Rating - Maintain "Add" rating for the agricultural sector [5] Core Views - The first pet Double Eleven sales report has been released, indicating potential catalysts for the sector [1][12] - The trend of domestic substitution and premiumization in the pet food market remains strong, with most top brands being domestic [2][13] - The current valuation of pig farming is relatively low, with opportunities in low-cost pig farming companies [3][15] - The poultry market shows mixed signals, with white feather chicken prices declining while yellow feather chicken prices are increasing [15][30] - The commercialization of genetically modified varieties is expected to enhance growth potential in the agricultural sector [15] Summary by Sections Pet Industry - The top ten brands in the pet food sector are predominantly domestic, with high-end brands like Xianlang and Fregate leading the sales [2][13] - The Double Eleven event is ongoing, with expectations for new product launches and sales data to be closely monitored [14] Pig Farming - The national price for lean pigs is 10.98 yuan/kg, down 3.6% from last week [3][16] - The average wholesale price of pork is 18.03 yuan/kg, down 2.4% [16][24] - Self-breeding pig farming shows a loss of 244.7 yuan per head, indicating a decrease in profitability [20][21] Poultry Farming - The price of white feather chickens is 6.87 yuan/kg, down 0.1%, while chicken product prices average 8.6 yuan/kg, down 0.6% [15][34] - The price of meat chicken chicks has increased by 2.2% to 3.29 yuan each [15][30] - Yellow feather chicken prices have shown a 1.9% increase, suggesting seasonal price elasticity opportunities [15][40] Agricultural Products - The approval of genetically modified varieties is set to enter commercial sales, with potential for growth in the sector [15] - The fluctuation in agricultural product prices is expected to continue, with leading feed companies likely to replace smaller competitors [15][49] Commodity Prices - Domestic corn prices have decreased by 2.0% to 2263.14 yuan/ton [50] - Soybean meal prices have dropped by 0.7% to 2993.43 yuan/ton [68] - The price of imported fish meal has decreased by 3.7% to 13067.39 yuan/ton [80]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that pig prices are stabilizing at low levels, with a continued reduction in breeding stock. As of October 17, 2025, the national average price for live pigs is 11.18 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.19 yuan/kg but a year-on-year decrease of 6.52% [3][12] - The report highlights that the price of piglets has further declined, which may accelerate the culling of sows. The price for 7kg piglets has dropped to 165 yuan/head, below the industry average cost of 300 yuan/head, leading to potential losses that could hasten the elimination of sows [4][19] - The report notes that the domestic pet market is experiencing a rise in local brands, particularly during the Double Eleven pre-sale event, where the top eight brands in sales are all domestic [5][22] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The pig price is in a low-level fluctuation, with breeding stock reduction continuing. The proportion of breeding stock in actual sales is 1.02%, with a week-on-week increase of 0.09 percentage points but a year-on-year decrease of 5.07 percentage points. The utilization rate of breeding facilities is 32%, down 2.4 percentage points from the previous period and down 15.9 percentage points year-on-year [12][13] Weekly Perspective - The report suggests that losses in pig farming may accelerate the reduction of breeding stock. The price of live pigs continues to decline, reaching a new low for the year, and the losses in pig farming are deepening. The report recommends stocks such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [29][30] Market Performance (October 13-17) - The agricultural sector underperformed the market by 0.73 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.47% and the agricultural index down 2.20%. Notable stock performances include Shenyin Wanguo Biological (+10.33%) and others [32][37] Price Tracking (October 13-17) - The average price for live pigs is 11.17 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price for piglets is 17.99 yuan/kg, down 0.73 yuan/kg. The average price for white strip meat is 14.68 yuan/kg, down 0.51 yuan/kg [6][47] Key News (October 13-17) - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a video conference to strengthen the inspection and slaughtering of pigs, emphasizing the importance of quality control in pork products [38]

Core Viewpoint - The pig market is experiencing significant price declines, with both spot and futures prices hitting new lows due to oversupply and insufficient capacity reduction in the industry [1][2][4]. Price Trends - As of the first week of October, the average price of live pigs in China was 12.90 yuan/kg, down 2.8% week-on-week and 29.5% year-on-year [1]. - Futures prices for near-month contracts have approached 11,000 yuan/ton, with a decline of over 9% since October [1][2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of live pigs has exceeded market expectations, leading to a fundamental shift from profitability to losses in the industry since September [2][3]. - Analysts indicate that the current market conditions suggest a prolonged period of oversupply, with limited potential for price recovery even with seasonal demand increases [1][3]. Capacity Adjustment - The industry is facing a dual loss situation for both piglets and fattening pigs, with an increase in the sentiment to cull sows, but the pace of capacity reduction remains slower than expected [3][4]. - Some leading companies have responded to calls for capacity adjustment, but many smaller firms are either making minor adjustments or maintaining a wait-and-see approach [4]. Future Outlook - If the reduction in sow capacity begins to materialize in October, it could lead to a decrease in fattening pig capacity by August 2026, but the market may still face oversupply until then [4]. - The price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate, with a potential high point unlikely to exceed 14 yuan/kg and a low point unlikely to drop below 10 yuan/kg without panic selling [4][5]. Market Sentiment and Policy Impact - The government has been actively involved in regulating the industry, with multiple meetings held to discuss capacity control, indicating a commitment to stabilizing prices [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that while the current price levels are under pressure, government policies aimed at guiding reasonable price recovery may shorten the duration of the current pressure period [5].

Core Insights - The pig farming industry is experiencing a "volume increase and profit increase" trend in the first half of 2025, driven by cost reduction and improved farming techniques, with leading companies like Muyuan Foods seeing net profits surge over 1000% year-on-year [1][4] - Despite the growth in sales volume, the overall revenue of listed pig companies is declining due to falling pig prices in the third quarter [1] Revenue Disparity - Muyuan Foods leads the industry with over 75 billion yuan in revenue, followed by Wens Foodstuffs at approximately 32.7 billion yuan, and New Hope and Haida Group at 14.4 billion yuan and 9.7 billion yuan respectively [2] - The profitability of companies heavily relies on cost control, with several firms achieving net profit growth exceeding 150% through refined management and strategic adjustments [2] - The total sales volume of 24 listed pig companies reached 109 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 31.95%, indicating the effectiveness of the "volume compensates for price" strategy [2] Profitability Drivers - The profitability in the first half of 2025 was also influenced by a temporary mismatch in supply and demand, with early market supply pressure alleviated by farmers' pessimistic expectations [3] - The average breeding cost decreased from 14 yuan/kg in 2024 to 12 yuan/kg in 2025, with some companies reporting costs below 12 yuan/kg, mitigating the impact of falling pig prices [2] Financial Health and Debt Levels - Among 22 listed pig companies, 18 reported profits totaling 20.04 billion yuan, with 16 achieving positive net profit growth [4] - The average debt-to-asset ratio for 26 listed pig companies is 57.30%, a decrease of 5.68 percentage points from the previous year, although high debt levels remain a concern for some companies [4] - Companies like Tianyu Biological, Xinwufeng, and others have debt ratios exceeding 70%, indicating ongoing financial risks [4] Industry Development Trends - The pig farming industry is transitioning to a high-quality development phase, emphasizing the need for improved production efficiency and cash flow security [5] - Companies are advised to maintain a rational approach during profitable periods to avoid overexpansion, which could lead to future price declines [6] Market Outlook - Expectations for the fourth quarter suggest a weak and fluctuating pig price due to increased supply, although seasonal demand may provide some support [7] - The relationship between piglet supply and demand, futures and spot market linkage, and improved policy precision are emerging trends to watch in the industry [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of live pigs dropped significantly, with the main contract 2601 falling 3.87% weekly. Considering the theoretical slaughter pressure in the near - term based on the inventory data of newborn piglets and breeding sows, and the active slaughter of large - scale farms, the supply is under pressure. The secondary fattening entry showed signs of cooling. Although the terminal demand is expected to improve with the temperature drop, the current demand is lower than expected. Overall, due to the cooling of secondary fattening entry and the loose supply - demand situation, it is expected that the price of live pigs will continue to be weak. It is recommended to conduct short - side trading operations on the live pig 2601 contract [6]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - The price of live pigs dropped significantly, with the main contract 2601 falling 3.87% weekly. The supply is under pressure due to theoretical slaughter pressure and active slaughter by large - scale farms. Secondary fattening entry supported the spot price in the early part of the month but showed signs of weakening. The terminal demand is expected to improve but is currently lower than expected. It is expected that the price of live pigs will continue to be weak, and short - side trading operations on the live pig 2601 contract are recommended [6]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures price dropped this week, with the main contract 2601 falling 3.87% weekly [8][11]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of October 17, the net short position of the top 20 holders in live pig futures was 30,554 lots, a decrease of 2,535 lots from last week. The number of futures warehouse receipts was 111, an increase of 111 from the previous week [17]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spread between lh2601 and lh2603 contracts was 390, and the spread between lh2601 and lh2605 contracts was - 250 [22]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Base Difference**: This week, the base difference of the live pig November contract was 150 yuan/ton, and the base difference of the January contract was - 470 yuan/ton [27]. - **Price of Live Pigs and Piglets**: The average national live pig market price was 11.27 yuan/kg this week, a decrease of 0.21 yuan/kg from last week. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 22.79 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.18 yuan/kg from last week [36]. - **Pork and Breeding Sow Prices**: As of the week of October 9, the national pork market price was 23.89 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.28 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows last week was 32.50 yuan/kg, remaining the same as the previous week [40]. - **Pig - to - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of October 8, 2025, the pig - to - grain ratio was 5.46, a decrease of 0.22 from the previous week [44]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Breeding Sow Inventory**: In late August 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.38 million heads, a decrease of 40,000 heads month - on - month, an increase of 0.05% year - on - year, reaching 103.5% of the normal inventory. In September, according to Mysteel data, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms decreased slightly by 0.28% month - on - month and increased by 1.09% year - on - year, while in 85 small and medium - sized farms, it decreased by 1.50% month - on - month and increased by 2.10% year - on - year [49]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: In Q2 2023, the live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, an increase of 7.16 million heads from the end of the previous quarter and an increase of 9.14 million heads year - on - year. In September, according to Mysteel data, the live pig inventory in 123 large - scale farms increased by 1.44% month - on - month and 5.29% year - on - year, and in 85 small and medium - sized farms, it increased by 2.93% month - on - month and 6.29% year - on - year [53]. - **Slaughter Volume and Average Weight**: In September, according to Mysteel data, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms decreased by 4.54% month - on - month and increased by 23.49% year - on - year, while in 85 small and medium - sized farms, it increased by 1.39% month - on - month and 33.52% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of national outer - ternary live pigs this week was 123.43 kg, a decrease of 0.05 kg from last week, a month - on - month increase of 0.05%, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.29% [58]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Breeding Profits**: As of October 17, the breeding profit of purchased piglets reported a loss of 375.29 yuan/head, with the loss expanding by 75.25 yuan/head; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs was a loss of 244.7 yuan/head, a decrease of 92.55 yuan/head month - on - month. The egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.46 yuan/head, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/head week - on - week, and the 817 meat - hybrid chicken breeding profit was 1.40 yuan/head [63]. - **Pork Imports**: In August 2025, China's pork imports were 80,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.11%. From January to August, the cumulative pork imports were 710,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.43% [68]. - **Substitute Products**: The price of white - striped chickens dropped, and the spread between standard and fat pigs widened [69]. - **Feed Situation**: As of October 17, the spot price of soybean meal was 2993.43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57.14 yuan/ton from the previous week; the corn price was 2269.22 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34.9 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 869.88, a decrease of 1.23% from last week, and the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.34 yuan/kg, remaining the same as last week. As of August 2025, the monthly feed output was 29.272 million tons, an increase of 999,000 tons month - on - month. In September 2025, the sales of piglet feed decreased by 0.01% month - on - month and increased by 71.08% year - on - year [75][80][85]. - **CPI**: As of September 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year [89]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Slaughter and Consumption**: In the 42nd week, the slaughter enterprise's开工 rate was 32.38%, a decrease of 2.15 percentage points from last week and an increase of 5.07 percentage points year - on - year, with the weekly开工 rate fluctuating between 30.95% and 34.44%. The frozen product storage capacity rate was 17.84%, an increase of 0.09% from last week. As of August 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 33.5 million heads, an increase of 5.81% from the previous month. In August 2025, the national catering revenue was 449.57 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% [92][97]. 3.7 Live Pig Stocks - The report presented the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd. [98][101]

Group 1 - The company hosted a specific research meeting with three institutions, focusing on its basic situation and development strategy [1] - For the first nine months of 2025, the company achieved a cumulative pig sales volume of 3.7622 million heads, with a target of 5 to 5.5 million heads for the year [1] - The company maintains a "company + farmer" and "self-breeding" model for pig farming, with 80.64% of fat pig sales coming from the "company + farmer" model as of mid-2025 [1] Group 2 - As of June 30, 2025, the company's debt-to-asset ratio was 64.5%, with cash on hand of approximately 2.4 billion yuan and a net cash flow from operating activities of 660 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [2] - The company has made progress in its breeding system, increasing the proportion of new Dan pigs from 56% to 76% over the past year [2]

Group 1: Company Overview and Strategy - The company aims to maintain a pig output target of 5 to 5.5 million heads for 2025, with no adjustments made to the annual output goal as of now [2] - The company operates under a "company + farmer" and "self-breeding" model, which has shown continuous improvement in production indicators [2] - As of mid-2025, the "company + farmer" model accounted for 80.64% of the total pig output, with 198.87 million heads produced [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - As of June 30, 2025, the company's debt-to-asset ratio stands at 64.5%, with cash reserves of approximately 6.60 billion [2] - The company achieved a net cash flow from operating activities of 24 million in the first half of 2025 [2] Group 3: Breeding System Changes - The breeding system has shifted from the "New American" to the "New Danish" system, with the proportion of new Danish breeding pigs increasing from 56% to 76% over the past year [3] - The company introduced 1,400 new Danish breeding pigs in 2020, enhancing the overall breeding performance [3]

Core Viewpoint - The pig farming industry is currently facing significant losses due to declining prices, with the national average price dropping to approximately 11 yuan/kg, leading to a downturn in the entire sector [1] Industry Overview - The pig price has been fluctuating and has accelerated its decline post-National Day, with the average price falling to about 11 yuan/kg, indicating that the industry is in a loss-making phase [1] - The price of piglets has also decreased sharply, with the price for 7 kg piglets dropping to 183 yuan/head, a decline of 43.5% since early September [1] - The industry is experiencing a comprehensive loss, and the "anti-involution" policy is expected to accelerate the reduction of pig farming capacity [1] - The number of breeding sows has decreased by 0.1% month-on-month as of August, according to the Ministry of Agriculture [1] Company Performance - In September, listed companies reported a total pig output of 14.23 million heads, a decrease of 6.3% month-on-month but an increase of 26.3% year-on-year [3] - Excluding Muyuan Foods, the total output of listed companies was 8.65 million heads, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 17.6% and a year-on-year increase of 38.8% [3] - For the first three quarters, the total output of listed companies reached 142.2 million heads, marking a year-on-year growth of 30.7% [3] - Specific companies like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, New Hope Liuhe, and Dekang Agriculture reported varying output changes in September, with Muyuan Foods seeing a significant decrease of 20.4% month-on-month [3] Sales and Pricing - The average sales price for listed companies in September was calculated at 13.0 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 6.12% [4] - The average weight of pigs sold in September was approximately 114.7 kg/head, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.7% [4] - Both fat pigs and piglets are currently in a loss-making situation, which is likely to accelerate the reduction of production capacity [4] Investment Recommendations - The pig farming sector is in a state of comprehensive losses, with prices falling below the cash costs for most enterprises, and piglet sales are also unprofitable [5] - Given the current loss situation in the industry and the "anti-involution" backdrop, the reduction of pig farming capacity is expected to commence [5] - The sector is currently valued relatively low, with a focus on leading companies with cost advantages recommended, such as Wens Foodstuff Group and Muyuan Foods [5] - Other companies to watch include Dekang Agriculture and New Hope Liuhe, with potential turnaround candidates like Zhengbang Technology and smaller farming enterprises such as Tiankang Biological and Shennong Group [5]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Juxing Agriculture and Animal Husbandry has experienced a decline of 2.01% on October 17, with a current price of 19.50 CNY per share, reflecting a total market capitalization of 9.946 billion CNY. The company has shown a year-to-date stock price increase of 10.91% but has faced recent declines over various trading periods [1]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Juxing Agriculture and Animal Husbandry reported a revenue of 3.717 billion CNY, marking a year-on-year growth of 66.49%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 181 million CNY, representing a significant increase of 504.12% [2]. Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Juxing Agriculture and Animal Husbandry stood at 36,300, an increase of 0.70% from the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 0.70% to 14,044 shares [2]. Dividend Distribution - Since its A-share listing, Juxing Agriculture and Animal Husbandry has distributed a total of 222 million CNY in dividends, with 102 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. Institutional Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, among the top ten circulating shareholders, Yinhua Domestic Demand Selected Mixed Fund (161810) held 6.75 million shares, a decrease of 730,000 shares from the previous period. New institutional investors include Guotai Zhongzheng Livestock Breeding ETF (159865), which holds 3.6297 million shares [3].

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The credit structure and fund activity continue to optimize, with social financing scale increasing by 3.5 trillion yuan in September, exceeding expectations of 3.3 trillion yuan [3] - The growth of RMB loans in September was 1.29 trillion yuan, slightly below the expected 1.39 trillion yuan, indicating a weaker demand for loans [4][36] - The M1 growth rate increased to 7.2% in September, while M2 growth decreased to 8.4%, reflecting a shift in deposit structure and a potential slowdown in M1 growth in October [7][35] Group 2: Industry Analysis - Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The price of pigs fell unexpectedly, with the average selling price in September at 13.10 yuan/kg, down 4.86% month-on-month and 30.90% year-on-year, indicating increased pressure on pig farming [18] - The number of large pigs being sold has decreased, suggesting a tightening supply in the future, while the profit margin for pig farming has turned negative due to falling prices [19][20] - The average selling price of listed pig companies in September also saw a decline, with major companies reporting a decrease in sales prices [21][22] Group 3: Industry Analysis - Electric Power Equipment and New Energy - In September, the sales of new energy vehicles in nine European countries reached 307,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 34.7%, with a penetration rate of 31.8% [25][26] - The UK has restarted BEV subsidies, which is expected to boost demand in the coming months, while France has introduced additional subsidies for electric vehicles [26] - The European Parliament's vote to delay tightening carbon emission targets is expected to maintain the growth trend in the electric vehicle market [27] Group 4: Industry Analysis - Banking - The banking sector is experiencing a differentiation in operations as the "funding attributes" enhance, with a notable increase in the contribution of funding business to banks [35][38] - The growth of corporate loans remains strong, particularly in short-term loans, while the demand for long-term financing from both residents and enterprises has not improved significantly [36][37] - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on banks with strong dividend yields and customer advantages in the wealth management era [39] Group 5: Company Analysis - Haiguang Information - The company reported a revenue increase of 54.65% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit growth of 28.56% [41][42] - The company plans to absorb and merge with Zhongke Shuguang to enhance vertical integration and market synergy in the chip and data center infrastructure sectors [43] Group 6: Company Analysis - Zhuhai Guanyu - The company is a leading manufacturer of lithium-ion batteries, with a significant share in consumer battery markets, particularly in laptops and smartphones [45][47] - The company is focusing on advanced technologies such as solid-state batteries and stacking processes to maintain its competitive edge in the AI terminal market [48]